DAILY REPORT : Monday 11 Dec 2017

MACRO: U.S. nonfarm payrolls outpaced expectations during November, increasing by 228,000 (exp: 195,000) to follow a downwardly revised 244,000 during October (prev: 261,000). Wage growth was weaker than expected as hourly earnings ticked just +0.2% MoM higher (exp: +0.3%), while October’s print declined to -0.1% from a flat read previously. The unemployment rate held at 4.1% (exp: 4.1%) and the broader 'U-6' measure of unemployment and underemployment, which includes those who have stopped looking and those in part-time jobs who want full-time positions, edged marginally higher to 8.0% from 7.9% previously. The University of Michigan reported on Friday that its measure of consumer sentiment softened to 96.8 during December (exp: 99.0) from a November read of 98.5. Current conditions actually improved to 115.9 from 113.5 previously, while the expectations component declined to 84.6 from 88.9 previously. Equity markets in the U.S. pushed higher on Friday following the stronger than expected jobs data, seeing the DJIA and the S&P 500 to fresh record closing levels. The DJIA ended the session +0.49% higher at 24,329.16 points to extend early session gains, while strength across healthcare (+1.11%) led all components aside from materials (-0.02%) higher as the S&P 500 posted a +0.55% gain to 2,651.50 points. The dollar ended trade higher on Friday following the buoyant jobs report, however ran into selling pressure as participants digested the softer than expected wages figures. The DXY ended trade +0.1% higher, seeing strength against the yen to end around 113.50 for a +0.35% gain against the safe-haven.

PRECIOUS: Gold opened to a mild bid tone during Asian trade on Monday, however saw offers toward USD $1,250 restricted any further early session gains. China continued to see the metal trade at an onshore premium above USD $8 relative to London gold, however once again, a lack of physical interest saw the early price action stagnate. A softer greenback during afternoon trade underpinned the metal into European trade as bullion edged briefly through USD $1,250 to mark the session high print. Expectations this week are that bullion will hold a narrow range into Wednesday’s FOMC rates decision, while following Friday’s stronger than expected U.S. jobs data we see a 90% chance that interest rates will be raised, with the potential that gold may extend recent weakness toward USD $1,200. Initial support comes in toward USD $1,245, while strong resistance comes in at the 200 DMA of USD $1,267.70.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 05 Dec 2017

MACRO: U.S. factory orders declined less than expected during October, easing just -0.1% (exp: -0.4%) as demand for both civilian and defence aircraft softened, while excluding transportation orders increased +0.8%. Durable goods orders declined -0.8% (exp: -1.1%), while orders for non-defence capital goods, often viewed as a measure of business spending plans, edged +0.3% higher and the so called core capital goods that are used in the calculation of GDP jumped +1.1%. Equity markets in the U.S. ended trade on Monday mixed, with late session weakness seeing the S&P 500 fall into negative territory as technology names weighed upon the bourse. The DJIA opened well bid following the weekend tax reform news and was able to hold onto a +0.24% gain to 24,290.25 points, however well down on the 24,534.04 intra-session high. Declines to technology (-1.93%) and real estate (-1.29%) outweighed strength across financials (+1.55%) to see the S&P 500 (-0.11%) hand back early session gains, while the Nasdaq saw heavy trade from major tech players take the bourse -1.05% lower.

Oil futures posted declines on Monday as participants largely ignored OPEC data showing a 300k daily decline in member production. WTI declined around -1.6% to end the session at USD $57.47 per barrel, while Brent crude sunk -2% to USD $62.45 per barrel. Tax reform headlines saw the DXY open around +0.2% stronger in Asia from Friday’s closing levels, however the greenback failed to add to these early session gains and held around opening levels into the close. U.S. treasury yields edged marginally higher on Monday as the 10-year added around 1.6bps o 2.377% and the two-year gained 3.4bps to 1.806%

Equity markets in Europe ripped higher on Monday, buoyed by tax reform headlines out of the U.S. over the weekend. A strong performance from the financial sector helped the Stoxx Europe 600 to a +0.91% gain to 387.47 points, while a stronger dollar created headwinds for the euro to help the export heavy German Dax +1.53% higher. In the U.K. the pound endured whippy trade around Brexit headlines following reports that parties had failed to reach an agreement in Brussels, however it was noted that progress had been made. Equities in London held onto the majority of early session gains, ending +0.53% higher as shares in homebuilders rose following a robust HIS Markit/CIPS construction PMI print of 53.1, marking the highest level in five months.

PRECIOUS: Bullion held a relatively narrow range during Monday's session, continuing to see firm interest toward USD $1,270 during modest early European weakness, before recovering into the close to end generally flat on the session. The yellow metal generally tracked dollar flows throughout the session, seeing little direction otherwise with ETF interest notably absent following Friday's large inflows. Gold vols continued to ease amid the muted price action, with 1m sliding underneath 8.4. Asian trade on Tuesday saw early session interest leading into the Chinese open, once again directed by dollar flows as the greenback opened offered. Physical interest out of Shanghai failed to keep the early bid tone buoyant, with an on-shore premium of around USD $6 relative to London bullion doing little to spur interest out of the far east. It seems for now that bullion will continue to find direction from USD flows, while remaining sensitive to headlines regarding U.S. tax reforms and the FBI probe. Near-term USD $1,270 will be the key for the metal, with support extending toward the all-important 200 DMA at USD $1,267.40. On the Top-side we see resistance at USD $1,281.40 (50 DMA) and 1,286.80 (100 DMA).

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Wed 29 Nov 2017

MACRO: North Korea tested an intercontinental ballistic missile during the early hours of Tuesday morning, a launch that saw the missile fly higher and for longer than any previous test. The hermit state’s advances in technology were on display during the 53 minute flight, concerning U.S. Defence Secretary Jim Mattis who commented, “The bottom line is, it’s a continued effort to build a threat – a ballistic missile threat that endangers world peace, and certainly, the United States,” President Trump was reportedly briefed while the missile was in the air according to the White House and he later spoke to South Korean President Moon Jae-in, reaffirming their “strong condemnation of North Korea’s reckless campaign” Media reports on Wednesday in Asia noted that North Korea said the missile was a new type of ICBM that has the potential to reach the whole U.S. There were also further reports that North Korea had completed the state’s nuclear force.

British media has reported that the U.K. and the European Union have reached an agreement on a Brexit ‘divorce bill’, with the final total expected to be between 45 – 55 billion euros. A U.K. government official cast doubt on the reported figures, while although the European Commission declined to comment, one EU diplomat said that with regards to the financial settlement, the two parties were “close to a deal”.

Jerome Powell gave little away during his confirmation hearing to be chairman of the Federal Reserve, sticking to the status quo in prepared remarks. Mr Powell stated that he expects U.S. GDP to grow 2.5% in 2017 and continue at a similar pace in 2018. With regards to an interest rate rise in December, Mr Powell noted that the case for such an increase is “coming together”, however separately admitted to some uncertainty surrounding relatively weak inflation figures.

The Conference Board reported consumer confidence in the U.S. edged 3.3 points higher to 129.5 (exp: 124.0) during November. Both the present situation and expectations sub-components posted gains, while the labor market differential that closely correlates to the unemployment rate in the Labor Department’s employment report, touched the highest level in more than 16 years. The S&P Case-Shiller 20-city house price index increased +6.19% during September (exp: +6.04%) to follow a +5.82% gain in August. Wholesale inventories in the U.S. declined -0.4% during October (exp: +0.4%) to follow a downwardly revised +0.1% gain in September. The Commerce Department reported the goods trade gap surged +6.5% to USD $68.3 billion last month amid an increase to imports of industrial supplies and consumer goods, while exports declined -1.0%. Equity markets in the U.S. ripped higher on Tuesday following a Senate Budget Committee vote 12-11 to advance the Republican tax bill. The late session news came as stocks had pulled back from earlier gains as news of North Korea’s missile test hit the wires. The DJIA surged +1.09% to close at a fresh all-time record closing high of 23,836.71 points, while an outstanding performance by the financial sector (+2.58%) helped see the S&P 500 +0.98% higher to 2,627.04 points, also a fresh all-time record close. Not to be left behind, the Nasdaq Composite added +0.49% to end at a fresh all-time record closing level of 6,912.358 points. Treasury yields in the U.S. increased on Tuesday following a poorly received auction of USD $28 billion seven-year Treasury notes. The 10-year yield increased around 1.1 bps to 2.338% and the two-year added 1.4 bps to 1.758%. The greenback tracked higher on Tuesday to see the DXY end with a +0.44% gain, however the dollar didn’t have it all its own way, as the pound ripped higher on late session Brexit news.

Markets across Europe posted strong gains on Tuesday, with the oil sector seeing broad interest following a raised outlook by Shell. The Stoxx Europe 600 closed +0.56% higher at 387.02 points, while the German Dax added +0.46% to 13,059.53 points. In the U.K. equities were buoyed by the news from shell and a rally in banking stocks following reports that the Bank of England had given the sector a clean bill of health in its recent stress tests. The FTSE 100 rebounded from three consecutive losses, ending trade +1.04% higher at 7,460.65 points.

PRECIOUS: A disappointing session for gold on Tuesday, generally held range-bound and unable to garner a safehaven bid following the news of a further North Korean missile launch. A stronger greenback and higher global equities combined to create headwinds for the yellow metal, however it must be said that underlying interest is still apparent and price action toward USD $1,290 found solid support. There was little direction from Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell’s confirmation hearing, while data releases were mixed, however the U.S. consumer confidence print did see the metal toward the session low. ETF holdings held relatively unchanged for the session as were vols (1m gold around 8.75) and gold ended the session flat as we rolled into February 2018 futures. Wednesday's Asian session adhered to the recent range-bound status quo, however afternoon headlines out of North Korea did give price action a modest boost, although offers around USD $1,296 restricted any further top-side moves. The latest advances in missile technology in North Korea should provide an underlying bid tone for bullion, with the threat of a potential strike on the U.S. mainland increasing (albeit largely theoretical). In recent times such geopolitical tensions have resulted in only short-term price buoyancy and without further headlines to drive interest, participants will turn focus to the upcoming U.S. GDP and personal consumption data to put some of the final pieces of the puzzle together for a December interest rate increase. Support for the yellow metal should initially sit toward USD $1,290, while below this USD $1,285 (100 DMA) is a key level. Resistance continues to cut in around USD $1,297 and above this USD $1,300 looms as a formidable level. Silver saw muted interest today following Tuesday's collapse through the USD $17 pivot point (-1.2% down on Tue), while platinum held a tight range around USD $950 and palladium consolidated the staggering +2.2% overnight gain driven by supply constraints and solid auto demand.

Data releases today include French GDP, U.K. mortgage approvals, Eurozone consumer confidence, German CPI, U.S. GDP, U.S. personal consumption and U.S. pending home sales. Later today we also here from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's testimony before the Joint Economic Committee.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Friday 08 Dec 2017

MARKETS/MACRO: Equities climbed overnight, treasury yields eased and the USD appreciated with global markets generally on the quieter side leading into tonight's NFP's. The main U.S stock benchmarks edged higher in early Thursday trade and maintained these gains throughout, driven by gains in the tech, industrial and materials sectors. The DJIA gained +70.57 points, or +0.29%, to 24,211.48, the S&P500 rallied +7.71 points, or +0.29%, to 2,636.98 and the NASDAQ appreciated +36.466 points, or +0.54%, to 6,812.841. The best performing sector was Industrials up +0.93%, while the worst performing sector was Consumer Staples -0.87%. Stocks across Europe wobbled into the close, settling generally unchanged as traders digested economic growth data and look forward to today's data. The Euro First 300 Index inched down -0.13 of a point, or -0.01% to 1,520.12 and the Euro Stoxx 600 crept up +0.09 of a point, or +0.02% to 386.41. Regionally the moves were more diverse, the FTSE100 fell -0.37%, DAX was up +0.36% and CAC40 +0.18%. In FX focus was centred around GBP, with Brexit negotiation headlines (ECJ STUMBLING BLOCK IN BREXIT TALKS SAID TO BE RESOLVED), driving GBP as low as 1.3320, only to surge to a 1.3485 high late in NYK. The change in tone for the GBP later in the day was brought about by reports that a deal with the European Court of Justice had been struck. Crude oil prices rose strongly (WTI +$0.70, or +1.25% to $56.66 bbl), as buyers returned to the market after some heavy liquidation over the past couple of days. There was very little data to drive prices, with investors left to ponder the recent OPEC production cut extensions amid the rising oil product inventories in the US. The market was spooked by the rise in gasoline inventories in the US (+6.78 million barrels), however, it appeared a classic knee-jerk reaction, with stockpiles normally rising at this time of the year. A mixed theme in treasuries, beginning the NY session well bid at the lows seemingly as a result of short covering/position squaring ahead of Friday’s jobs report. Later in the session however, dealers and fast money sold into the bid, with the pullback accompanied by a steeper curve. The US 10y yield increased +2.67bps to 2.3652% and the US 2y yield fell -0.4bps to 1.8024%.

Data was light overnight, the only real thing of note U.S jobless claims. The labour Department said new unemployment benefits slipped by -2k to 236k for the week ended Dec 2nd. It was the third straight weekly decline in claims and marked the 144th straight week that new claims remained below the 300k threshold - which is associated with a strong labour market. Further, this is the longest stretch since the early 1970's. Continuing claims fell 52k to 1.91 million.

Bitcoin continues to entertain, surging to a fresh high overnight just above $17,000, then settling around $15,000 to be up a mere +12.5% on the day. The crypto currency has surged an astonishing +60% this week alone, baffling traders.

PRECIOUS: It was a very soft night for the precious complex, gold, silver and platinum breaking down through a number of technical levels as investors continue to focus on imminent rate hikes and progress to U.S tax reform. Despite some support in Asia throughout the morning evident by the SGE premium shifting to the right to $8, gold ultimately broke through the $1260 support in the Asia PM session. Momentum began to build on the move as weak intra-day longs capitulated, the metal shrugging off $4 and never really looking like moving higher throughout the rest of the day. It was a slow and gradual sell-off throughout the European hours which continued into the NY morning. USD and equities continued their upward momentum which continued the downward pressure on precious and base metals. During the afternoon gold plunged through $1250 to fresh multi-month lows, with some huge volume churning through Comex. We sharply traded to an intra-day low of $1244.50 before some profit taking was seen with an hour and half to go, closing at $1247.00. The gold has now cleared the weekly 100 dma on the downside and bears will now be looking to target the 76.4% retracement ($1240.70) and then the weekly 200 dma at $1233.20. On the side we should see resistance at $1260-63 (sequence of monthly lows, base of old range, 61.8% retracement). Platinum has fallen over 4% this week, putting it on track for its biggest weekly loss in months, resulting in a XPTXPD ratio of 0.88. The metal now sits below $900 and just above a significant support zone between $890-895 (multiple low crossings dating back to November 2016). Silver has had a rough week too, down -3.3% at current levels and looking soggy. The outlier is palladium, which bucked the trend overnight and pushed aggressively back through $1000 to just above $1020, adding +2.0% on the day and returning to where it started the week. Elsewhere, China’s gold reserves remain unchanged for a 13th month in succession, maintaining a holding of 1824 tons even as overall FX reserves grew to a high of $3.2 trillion.

Asia were on the bid this morning, although there remained decent selling pressure from Comex which kept the gold range fairly tight throughout the day. Gold opened at $1247.50 and traded sideways over the first few hours of the day. When China came in they were initial buyers with the premium for onshore traders a little higher ($8.50-9.50), although the demand was relatively light considering the scale of the move lower. The fact we have NFP's tonight may also have given reason for pause amongst investors. Silver and the PGM's were much the same, contained to quiet ranges with modest flows seen. Other markets were equally quiet, the USD on hold against the majors (EUR 1.1765, GBP 1.3490, JPY 113.40, AUD 0.7515), while equities were strong, the Nikkei currently up +1.1%, Hang Seng +0.85%, Shanghai Composite +0.2% and ASX200 +0.3%. There is a fair bit of data out today including German trade data, French and UK manufacturing data, Canadian housing starts and U.S uni of Michigan sentiment, wholesale inventories and of course the Non Farm Payrolls.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Monday 04 Dec 2017

MACRO: ABC reported on Friday that former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI and was prepared to testify that he was directed by President Trump to contact Russian nationals following the election. President Trump later tweeted saying that Flynn was fired because “he lied to the Vice President and the FBI.”, while adding further that his actions were “lawful”.

The U.S. Senate passed the Republican tax reforms by 51 votes to 49 in a marathon session that ended in the early hours of Saturday morning. The final draft of the bill required several changes in order to bring uncertain Republicans across the line, with the party holding a 52-48 majority in the senate only one senator, Bob Corker from Tennessee sided with the Democrats. It is now up to the Senate and the House to reconcile the differences between their respective bills and negotiate a final version.

Construction spending in the U.S. jumped +1.4% during October (exp: +0.5%) from a +0.3% increase the month prior. The headline print was the largest advance in five months and led by a +3.9% increase in public construction outlays, marking the largest gain since 2014. Spending on state and local government construction projects climbed +3.3%, while federal government spending surged +11.1%. The Institute for Supply Management reported on Friday that its index of national factory activity eased modestly during November to 58.2 (exp: 58.3) from 58.7 previously. The new orders index ticked higher to 61.0 from 60.4 previously, while unexpectedly the employment index eased to 59.7 from 59.8 previously. Equity markets in the U.S. closed lower on Friday, enduring a volatile session following the news that Michael Flynn pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI, however tempering declines late on optimism surrounding tax reform. The DJIA eased -0.17% to 24,231.59 points to snap a five session winning streak, however was able to hold onto a +2.9% weekly rise to mark the best week since December 2016. Declines to industrials (-1.17%) and materials (-0.85%) saw the S&P 500 -0.20% lower to 2,642.22 points, ending the week +1.5% higher, while the Nasdaq pulled back -0.38% to 6,847.586 points, bucking the trend to slide -0.6% on the week following Wednesday’s -1.27% fall.

Oil prices ripped higher during U.S. trade on Friday following news that OPEC had reached an agreement among members to extend production cuts to the end of 2018. WTI ended the session +1.7% higher at USD $58.36 per barrel, however eased around -1% on the week, while Brent crude added +1.8% to settle at USD $63.73 per barrel, closing around +0.4% higher for the week. The greenback was hammered in New York on Friday following the Flynn headlines, however managed to pare some losses into the close to see the DXY index end around -0.2% lower. Treasury markets in the U.S. saw yields soften marginally as the 10-year handed back around 5bps to 2.363% and the two-year eased 1bp to 1.778%.

European equities traded heavily on Friday, under pressure late in trade following the Flynn headlines out of the U.S. The Stoxx Europe 600 ended trade -0.7% lower at 383.97 points as financials (-1.24%) weighed upon the bourse, while the German Dax collapsed 1.25%. In the U.K. the FTSE 100 ended -0.36% down to extend the weekly decline to -1.5%, with banking stocks the main drag on the bourse.

PRECIOUS: Gold saw whippy price action in New York on Friday, ripping to a USD $1,289.85 session high following the Flynn headlines as the dollar and global equity markets traded under pressure. Ultimately optimism surrounding the Republican's tax reform saw bullion pare the majority of gains, hanging on to end +0.4% higher, however disappointingly closing underneath the 50 DMA at USD $1,281. Gold vols firmed around the Flynn news, however softened late to see 1m around 8.6, while ETF's saw solid inflows.

Asian trade on Monday saw bullion open softer following the tax reform headlines over the weekend, with a bid greenback weighing upon the metal as the DXY index opened around +0.2% higher than closing levels on Friday. Gold traded under pressure in early session flows, testing toward Friday's New York low print, while physical interest out of the far east did little to inspire price action throughout afternoon flows as the on-shore premium in China held toward USD $6 relative to London gold. The key for the metal over the near-term will be support toward USD $1,270, with extension toward the all-important 200 DMA at USD $1,267.25. On the Top-side we see resistance at USD $1,281.70 (50 DMA) and 1,286.50 (100 DMA), with extension toward Friday's high print around USD $1,290. Bullion is likely to be sensitive to dollar flows, tracking headlines generated by the FBI probe and any further tax reform related news as we head toward U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls at the end of the week.

Data today includes Eurozone PPI, U.S. factory orders and durable goods orders.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 28 Nov 2017

MACRO: U.S. new home sales surged higher during October, increasing +6.2% MoM (exp: -6.3%) to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 685,000. The October figure marked the highest level since October 2007 and follows a modest downwards revision to September from 667,000 to 645,000. Equity markets in the U.S. ended mixed on Monday after touching intraday records, as an early session rally in retail shares ran out of steam. The DJIA eked out a +0.1% gain to 23,580.78 points, while heavy trade to energy (1.03%) led the S&P 500 -0.04% lower to 2,601.42 points and the Nasdaq Composite declined -0.15%. Oil futures pulled back from recent gains on Monday as concerns over the extension to OPEC’s production cuts increased. WTI declined by -1.4% to settle just above USD $58 per barrel, while Brent crude endured volatile trade, however ended the session relatively flat at USD $63.73 per barrel.

PRECIOUS: Early session interest in bullion reversed around the Shanghai open as USD/JPY bounced from a move below 111.00 (110.93 low) to touch a 111.33 high. Following the overnight push toward USD $1,300 (North Korean headlines), the metal failed to garner support throughout the Asian session on Tuesday, as geopolitical concerns evaporated and participants instead turned focus to upcoming tax reforms out of the U.S. An on-shore Shanghai premium of around USD $7 saw physical interest provide modest support throughout the session, however the metal faced USD/JPY headwinds and was unable to print above USD $1,295 into European hours. Silver continues to test the USD $17 pivot point, while palladium once again test margin traders to recover from a move below USD $1,000 overnight and flit with a further move below the figure during Asian trade today. data today includes U.K. house prices, U.S. wholesale inventories and U.S> consumer confidence.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 07 Dec 2017

MACRO: US equities were mixed as losses for energy stocks weighed on the markets. The Dow slipped 39.73 points, or 0.16%, to 24,140.90; the S&P 500 inched lower 0.30 points, or 0.01% to 2,629.27, while the Nasdaq added 14.163 points, or 0.21%, to 6,776.375. There were wins for tech (+0.75%) and consumer staples (+0.56%) while energy (-1.29%) and telecoms (-0.95%) led the laggards. European shares were lower, the EuroSTOXX lost 0.42 points, or 0.11%, to 386.32, the German DAX fell 49.69 points, or 0.38%, to 13,998.85, and the London FTSE 100 slipped 1.18 points, or 0.02%, to 5,374.35. In the currencies, the US dollar index rose 0.23% to 93.598, the EUR traded down to 1.1779, while USD/JPY traded down to 112. US treasury yields were lower, the 2 year yield eased 2.01 bps to 1.7983% and the 10 year yield declined 2.67 bps to 2.3242%. In commodities news, oil prices were lower as US gasoline stockpiles jumped higher than expected over the week. Brent dropped 2.53% to $61.27 while WTI fell 2.85% to $55.98. The losses come despite the fact the EIA reported a fall in US crude inventories of 5.6 million barrels for the week ending December 1st. Base metals were mostly lower, with aluminium (-1.61%) suffering the biggest loss. In US economic data, the ADP National Employment Report showed the private sector added 190k jobs in November following a 235k rise in October. Most of the gains came from the service sector, which added 155k, followed by 40k in manufacturing and 36k in goods producers. Unit labour costs fell at a 0.2% annualised rate in the September quarter according to the Labor Department, this comes after increasing at a rate of 0.5% in the second quarter of 2017. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei is at +1.11, the Shanghai composite is at -0.62%, the Hang Seng at +0.01%, and the ASX S&P 200 at +0.64%. Tonight we have weekly jobless claims, flow of funds, and consumer credit out of the US; GDP growth rate out of the Eurozone; and industrial production out of Germany.

PRECIOUS: A quiet session for the precious as gold finishes up around the previous days lows. Gold opened at $1265 in Asia, there was some light buying action as USD/JPY fell and the Nikkei was hammered, the market peaking at $1268. The SGE premium was around $6-7 over loco London, which was not enough to prompt much action out of China. The market started to drift lower in the London AM session as the greenback rallied. The yellow metal spent NY hours in the $1263-65 range before closing on the low. Silver fell below $16 for the first time since July, the grey metal gave up 20c off the high to finish at $15.94. Platinum continued it's recent decline, dropping below the $900 level for the first time since July. Palladium was the stand out performer, climbing $10 to finish at $994. The Philadelphia gold and silver index lost 1.41%. SPDR gold trust holdings were unchanged at 845.47 metric tonnes. Quiet trading in Asia today, gold opened at $1263.40 and has remained within a tight $2 range, the $7 SGE premium has done little to spark action on either side. The yellow metal is at $1262.40 as I write. Similar story for silver, the grey metal sits at $15.95 as I write. PGMs are also flat. Gold is at a four month low, the 200 DMA at $1267 is likely to function as a pivot point, a close above that level tonight could be a precursor to a move higher, with next resistance at the 50 DMA at $1280. On the down side, key support is between $1261-1257.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Friday 01 Dec 2017

MACRO: US Senate Republicans have delayed a final vote on the proposed tax bill after three Republican Senators, led by Bob Corker, insisted upon a "trigger" amendment that would raise taxes automatically if the proposed cuts do not stimulate the economy as much as projected. Earlier in the day the tax bill looked set to pass as several heretofore undecided Republicans, most notably John McCain, signalled their support. US equities surged higher on the earlier tax news as the three major bourses hit record highs. The Dow climbed 331.67 points, or 1.39%, to 24,272.35; the S&P 500 gained 21.51 points, or 0.82% to 2,647.58, while the Nasdaq added 49.584 points, or 0.73%, to 6,873.973. Energy (+1.55%) and industrials (+1.55%) led a broad advance in the markets. European shares were lower, the EuroSTOXX lost 1.27 points, or 0.33%, to 386.69, the German DAX fell 37.89 points, or 0.29%, to 13,023.98, and the London FTSE 100 declined 66.89 points, or 0.90%, to 7,326.67.94. In the currencies, the dollar index lost 0.10% to 93.069, the EUR traded up to 1.193, while USD/JPY was as low as 111.73 before a late rally. US treasury yields were higher, the 2 year yield rose 2.00 bps to 1.7820% and the 10 year yield gained 2.15 bps to 2.4097%. In commodities markets, OPEC and non-OPEC producers have extended production cuts until the end of 2018, overnight Brent gained 0.73% to $63.61 while WTI edged lower 0.03% to $57.70. Base metals were mostly lower, with nickel (-3.56%) the biggest loser. In US economic news, the Commerce Department reported that consumer spending rose 0.3% in October following a 0.9% increase in September, while personal income rose 0.4% after a 0.4% rise in September. The PCE index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, rose 0.1% in October while the core PCE, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2% following a 0.1% rise in September. The core PCE year on year rate was flat at 1.4%. The Chicago PMI fell to 63.9 in November from 66.2 in October, given that any reading above 50 indicates improving conditions the current level is still very strong. Initial jobless claims slipped 2k to 238k in the week ending November 25, a week that including the Thanksgiving holiday. Continuing jobless claims increased by 42k to 1.96M, In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei is flat, the Shanghai composite is at -0.32%, the Hang Seng at -0.03%, and the ASX S&P 200 at +0.20%. Tonight we have Markit manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing, construction spending, and motor vehicle sales out of the US; and Markit manufacturing PMI out of the Eurozone.

PRECIOUS: Another tough day for the precious as gold hits a two week low amid a surge in the stock market. Gold opened at $1283 in Asia and remained within a tight $2 range during a very quiet trading day. The SGE premium was up at $8 but Chinese buying was limited. The market drifted lower in late Asian hours to $1280 in the London AM session. The was a drop to $1276 after NY open followed by a bounce back above $1280 as USD/JPY dipped briefly below 112. From here it was a steady slide to the session low of $1270 as the greenback rallied. the yellow metal bouncing off the low to a close at $1274. Silver was dumped to a low of $16.31, the grey metal has lost over 3.5% this week. Palladium made a move above $1020 during Asian hours which triggered some enthusiastic selling, the metal finished the day at $1009. The Philadelphia gold and silver index lost 0.29%. The SPDR Gold Trust holdings were unchanged at 839.55 metric tonnes. Todays trading has been very quiet, gold opened at $1274 and has been stuck in the $1274-76 range ever since. The yellow metal is at $1275.50 as I write. Silver is flat for the day, the grey metal sits at $16.43 as I write. PGMs are flat. The continued strength in equities and higher yields are putting the pressure on, with gold sold through the 100 dma level last night we should see initial support at he overnight low of $1270 and below that at the 200 dma which is in line with the October lows around $1266. On the upside expect first resistance at $1280 followed by yesterdays high of $1285. 

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Monday 27 Nov 2017

MACRO: Data from IHS Markit released on Friday showed business activity in the U.S. grew at a slower than expected pace during November. The flash composite PMI printed 54.6 to mark the slowest expansion of private sector output since July and notably below October’s 55.2. The seasonally adjusted services PMI came in at a flash reading of 54.7 (exp: 55.3) from 55.3 previously, also marking the slowest rate of expansion in output since July, however remained buoyant following increases to incoming new work and the fastest rate of job creation for three months. The seasonally adjusted flash manufacturing PMI printed 53.8 (exp: 55.0) from the 54.6 nine-month high registered in October. U.S. equity markets ran higher to fresh record closing levels on Friday, returning from Thanksgiving Day to book the first weekly gain in three weeks. The DJIA ended the session +0.14% higher at an all-time record of 23,557.99 points, while technology (+0.54%) led seven of eleven sectors of the S&P 500 (+0.21%) higher to see the bourse to a fresh record close at 2,602.42 points. Meanwhile, a strong performance from Amazon (+2.58%) helped the Nasdaq Composite to a +0.32% gain, closing at a fresh all-time record of 6,889.16 points. Over the week both the DJIA and the S&P 500 added +0.9%, while the Nasdaq outperformed to end +1.6% higher. Oil futures turned higher on Friday as investor’s shifted focus toward OPEC’s November 30 meeting, seeing WTI to its highest finish in close to 30 months and receiving a further boost following supply disruptions in Oklahoma. WTI ended the session +1.6% higher at a touch under USD $59 per barrel, while Brent crude tacked on +0.5% to USD $63.86 per barrel. The greenback traded heavily against majors on Friday to see the DXY end down -0.5% at a two-month low of 92.781, predominately weighed down by a firmer euro following a break above 1.19 for the common currency. Markets across Europe finished the week off in mixed fashion, with the Stoxx Europe 600 weighed down -0.13% by a firmer euro, while positive political developments out of Germany saw the Dax push to a +0.39% gain. In the U.K. the FTSE 100 posted a -0.10% decline as retail stocks traded heavily and the pound pushed higher.

PRECIOUS: Friday's shortened session provided little price action as far as bullion is concerned, with modest late European weakness seeing the yellow metal to a USD $1,285.45 session low even amid a declining greenback. The session saw lightened volumes on account of the Thanksgiving holiday and gold was able to recover and end just underneath USD $1,290. Regional demand in Asia remained muted on Monday, as the Shanghai on-shore premium eased toward USD $6 and Indian interest was close to non-existent with the metal trading in and out of a small discount recently. Early session dollar driven weakness leading into the Chinese open saw gold touch a session low of USD $1,286.50, however the metal was able to recover throughout the afternoon as the greenback reversed gains. Over the short-term bullion will look to hold support around USD $1,283.50 at which level both the 50 DMA and 100 DMA currently sit, with all eyes on developments regarding the proposed U.S. tax reforms and the U.S. GDP print on Wednesday. Top-side interest develops broadly between the recent high watermark of USD $1,295 - $1,296 and the psychological USD $1,300 figure. With regards to the remainder of the precious complex, silver continues to see underlying interest around USD $17 restricted declines, while palladium was unable to reclaim the USD $1,000 handle during Asian trade today following Friday's late session weakness. Data today includes U.S. new home sales and the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Wed 06 Dec 2017

MACRO: Data released by the Institute for Supply Management on Tuesday showed the U.S. services sector pulled back from its recent rate of expansion during November. The non-manufacturing composite PMI for November eased to 57.4 (exp: 59.0) from a record high October read of 60.1. IHS Markit’s measure of the U.S. services sector continued to show expansion during November, however the pace of which declined to a five month low. The services business activity index eased to 54.5 (exp: 55.2) from a preliminary read of 54.7 and down from October’s 55.3. Growth to new orders and employment continued during November, while inflationary pressures picked up with both input prices and output charges rising. The U.S. trade deficit expanded 8.6% to a nine-month high of USD $48.7 billion during October, as imports increased 1.6% to a record USD $244.6 billion. Close to half of the increase in the deficit came from petroleum imports at higher prices, while non-petroleum imports of goods from China, Mexico and the EU all printed record highs. Equity markets in the U.S. pared early session gains to end lower on Wednesday, as a bid technology sector ran out of steam in afternoon trade. The DJIA ended the session -0.45% lower at 24,180.64 points, while technology (+0.21%) was the only shining light among the S&P components as the bourse posted a -0.37% decline to 2,629.57 points.

PRECIOUS: Gold endured a heavy U.S. session on Tuesday, as dollar strength muscled the metal through the recent support level around USD $1,270, triggering a stop loss run into the PM fix. Whippy price action around the fix saw the metal test a move back toward USD $1,270, however top-side interest was short lived and a USD $1,266.30 fixing price triggered a fresh wave of offers through the 200 DMA (USD $1,267.40), with weakness extending over the proceeding two hours to see bullion print a USD $1,260.60 session low. Afternoon pricing saw the yellow metal recover modestly as equity markets in the U.S. retraced early session gains and the dollar bid tone softened, ending the session underneath the 200 DMA to mark a -0.8% decline. Tuesday’s price action saw vols skip out a touch as 1m increased to around 8.9, while ETF’s recorded modest outflows.

Asian trade on Wednesday opened in a subdued fashion, with light flows through Comex keeping the metal within a tight range into the Chinese open. Demand out of the far east picked up from what we have seen in recent sessions to underpin a modest bid tone, pushing the on-shore premium over USD $7 relative to London gold. Afternoon trade saw a test of the 200 DMA at USD $1,267.40 as the greenback softened, however offers around the figure kept a lid on any further top-side moves into European trade. Tuesday’s support at USD $1,267.40 (200 DMA) is now likely to function as a pivot point for the metal, while resistance builds broadly through this level to USD $1,271, with further extension to the 50 DMA at USD $1,280.80 and the 100 DMA at USD $1,287.00. The key down-side support for gold sits between USD $1,261 - $1,257, with a break through this level potentially opening up a large scale pull back as far as USD $1,210.00. Data today includes German factory orders, U.S. ADP employment and Nonfarm productivity.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 30 Nov 2017

MARKETS/MACRO: The Dow Jones Industrial Average maintained gains yesterday after earlier notching an intra-day record, however, a sell-off in large cap technology shares such as Facebook Inc., Apple Inc., and Amazon.com Inc. weighed on the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day up +103.97 points, or +0.44%, to 23,940.68, the S&P500 declined -0.97 of a point, or -0.04%, to 2,626.07 and the NASDAQ shed -87.97 points, or -1.27%, to 6,824.391. The best performing sector was Telecom Services up +2.72%, while the worst was Tech stocks down a sizeable -2.64%. European stocks closed at close to 3 week highs, boosted by a rally in the region’s banks a day after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman nominee Jerome Powell said he hopes to ease financial regulations. The Euro First 300 Index rallied +3.80 points, or +0.25% to 1,526.14 and the Euro Stoxx 600 index rose +0.94 of a point (+0.24%) to 387.96. Crude oil prices fell as investors continue to await confirmation of an OPEC deal extension - WTI off -$0.56 or -0.97% to $57.70. With a steady stream of headlines to digest and confuse, prices drifted lower. The reports do suggest that an extension is likely, however the devil is in the detail, with Russia still not expressing publically that it is fully behind any deal. Russian Energy Minister, Alexander Novak, said that the Joint Ministerial Monitoring committee had reached a consensus, yet “concrete parameters will only be announced tomorrow when everybody confirms”. Treasuries were down across the curve as a number of factors weighed. After a choppy previous session, treasuries sold off in sympathy with Gilts (Brexit) and Bunds (ECB hawkish comments and uptick in German inflation). Hawkish comments from Yellen/Dudley then added to the sell-off, as well as the GDP data. The US 10y yield increased +4.62bps to 2.374% and the US 2y yield rose +1.2bps to 1.758%.

On the data front, Wednesday’s report from the Commerce Department showed U.S GDP had expanded at a +3.3% annual rate (+3.2% expected) in the third quarter, up from +3.0% prior. It was the strongest quarter in three years, and an upward revision from the government’s initial estimate of 3.0% growth. It was the first time actual gross domestic product had exceeded potential GDP since the fourth quarter of 2007, suggesting the nation’s economic resources are being used efficiently. An acceleration in growth at this point could generate overheating that produces financial excess or long elusive consumer price pressures. Still in the U.S., the pending home sales index rose to a reading of 109.3, up from September's downwardly revised figure of 105.6. The move represented a +3.5% MoM increase (+1.0% expected) for the index. The housing sector has regained some momentum recently after treading water for much of the year because of a lack of inventory which has driven up prices, and both labour and land shortages.“Until new home construction climbs even higher and more investors and homeowners put their home on the market, sales will continue to severely trail underlying demand,” mentioned Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtor's chief economist.PRECIOUS: After looking like testing the range highs in Asia yesterday, gold quickly reversed during NY trade amidst rising rates and strong U.S GDP data. Gold opened in a fairly positive manner in Asia, the metal trading just beneath $1295 and holding in well throughout the morning into the China open. Just before this there was some headlines doing the rounds that North Korea was going to make an 'important announcement' at 11:30 HK time, which prompted the USDJPY 25 pips lower. Gold edged through $1295 as a result. Soon after, PyongYang released a statement that the ICBM that they had launched earlier in the day could fly far enough to target the entire mainland U.S, and that this was a 'great achievement'. Gold continued to push higher, although again ran into some very stiff resistance around the previous highs $1296-98, with some chunky visible offers on Comex. As London traders walked in for the day the yellow metal gave back some of the gains, in line with the USD clawing back some ground against the majors. Volatility stepped up on the NY open, following some relatively upbeat commentary from Fed Chair Yellen on growth and an emphasis that transitory factors were still likely affecting inflation. This was backed up by strong 3Q GDP figures, which prompted rates to soar, USD rally and gold tumble $10. Strength in yields and USD persisted throughout the session, capping gold beneath $1286 to eventually close at $1284. Silver followed gold lower, continuing its poor form this week, trading as low as $16.55 after trading at $17.20 Monday (-3.8%). PGM's slowed also, palladium putting on the breaks for the first time in a week or so and dropping back from $1030 to $1015 on the day.

Despite the volatility overnight it was another subdued session across the precious complex today in Asia. Gold opened with some expected light buying from SE Asian physicals and fast money type traders, which inched the metal a few dollars higher over the first few hours of trade. China came in and were light buyers as a result of the lower prices, increasing the SGE premium towards $7-8 for onshore traders. It didn't really translate into a higher spot price however, the yellow metal struggling above $1285 consistently. It was a similar scenario for silver, with some light physical buying assisting it higher but $16.60 proving a sturdy ceiling. Platinum and palladium faired better, particularly the latter with investors looking to buy the metal cheaply, Pd currently up around $5 on the day. The USD was generally softer against the majors, GBPUSD leading the charge up a further +0.5% today (+65 pips) to 1.3475 after trading at 1.3220 on Tuesday. USDJPY remains fairly flat however at 111.95. Regional stock indices are lower, the Nikkei currently trading down -0.1%, Hang Seng -1.15%, Shanghai Composite -0.2% and ASX200 down -0.7%. WTI Crude is currently flat at $57.40. On the data calendar today, look out for a number of Euro Zone CPI numbers, U.S. jobless claims, personal Income/spending and Chicago PMI.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Friday 24 Nov 2017

MACRO: US markets were closed for the Thanksgiving Holiday. European shares were narrowly mixed, the EuroSTOXX advanced 0.06 points, or 0.02%, to 387.12, the German DAX lost 6.49 points, or 0.05%, to 13,008.55, and the London FTSE 100 slipped 1.78 points, or 0.02%, to 7,417.24. In currency markets, the US dollar index eased 0.14% to 93.10, the EUR traded up to 1.1853, while USD/JPY was as low as 111.06. In commodities, oil prices were higher as Brent firmed 0.36% to $63.55 and WTI rose 0.93% to $58.56. Base metals were mostly higher, with nickel (+0.76%) the best performer. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei sits at +0.12%, the Shanghai composite is at +0.10%, the Hang Seng at +0.52%, and the ASX S&P 200 finished at -0.06%. Tonight we have Markit manufacturing PMI (flash) and Markit services PMI (flash) out of the US; and IFO current conditions, IFO expectations, and IFO business climate out of Germany.

PRECIOUS: A very quiet night for the precious with the US out for the holidays. Gold opened at $1291 in Asia and drifted lower through the session, the SGE premium at $5-6 prompted light selling by the Chinese banks. The market printed the low of $1287 during the London AM session. The yellow metal popped up to the days high of $1292 before settling to $1290 at the close. Silver tested the $17 level during Asian hours before finishing at $17.07. Palladium was the stand out, climbing to a high of $1012 after testing the psychological $1000 level earlier in the day. The Philadelphia gold and silver index added 1.35%. Gold ETF holdings remained unchanged. In todays trading, flows have been subdued as expected following the US holiday. Gold opened at $1291 and has traded a $3 range with the SGE premium at $6 over loco London. The yellow metal is at $1291.20 as I write. Silver opened at $17.05 and has firmed through the day, the grey metal sits at $17.12 as I write. Palladium is flat however platinum has tacked on a few dollars to print a high of $940.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.