DAILY REPORT : Thursday 19 Apr 2018

MACRO: US equities were mixed as a spike in oil prices bolstered energy stocks and huge losses for IBM weighed on the Dow. The Dow lost 38.56 points, or 0.16%, to 24,748.07, the S&P 500 rose 2.25 points, or 0.08% to 2,677.84, while the Nasdaq gained 14.137 points, or 0.19%, to 7,295.236. IBM lost 7.53% as their lacklustre quarterly earnings sparked a massive sell-off. There were wins for energy (+1.55%) and industrials (+1.02%), while consumer staples (-0.86%) and telecoms (-0.44%) led the laggards. European equities were higher, the EuroSTOXX added 1.09 points, or 0.29%, to 381.86, the German DAX crept up 5.26 points, or 0.04%, to 12,590.83, and the London FTSE 100 put on 91.29 points, or 1.26%, to 7,317.34. In the currencies, the US dollar index advanced 0.11% to 89.612, the EUR was as low as 1.2349, while USD/JPY traded up to 107.37. US treasury yields were higher, the 2 year yield firmed 3.53 bps to 2.4293% and the 10 year yield rose 4.43 bps to 2.8728%. Oil prices surged to levels last seen in late 2014 as the EIA reported US crude stockpiles fell by 1.1 million barrels last week. Brent climbed 3.17% to $73.85 while WTI put on 3.35% to $68.75. Base metals moved sharply higher as the fallout from US sanctions against Russia's Rusal spread through the base metal complex. Aluminium climbed 5.49% as the LME and CME suspended delivery of Rual brands. Nickel was the biggest mover overnight, jumping 7.46% on news Russia's Norilsk Nickel may also be subject to US sanctions. In US economic data, mortgage applications rose 4.9% in the week ending April 13. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei is at +0.41%, the Shanghai composite is at +0.97%, the Hang Seng at +1.20%, and the ASX S&P 200 is at +0.43%. Tonight we have weekly jobless claims, the Philly Fed index, and leading economic indicators out of the US.

PRECIOUS: Gold opened at $1347 in Asia and drifted lower as USD firmed against the yen and the SGE premium eased to $5-6, the market bottoming out at $1342. London were buyers down here as the precious complex was led higher by a broad rally in base metals. Gold reached $1350 by the time NY came in and investors there were happy to buy into the strength, the yellow metal squeezed to a session high $1355. In choppy afternoon trading the metal was not able to close above the $1350 level, finishing just under at $1348. Silver surged almost 3% to the high of $17.23, the grey metal trading above $17 for the first time since early February. Palladium's astonishing run of gains continued, the metal climbed $33 to a high of $1044. Palladium has risen a staggering 16% over the last 8 trading days. The Philadelphia gold and silver index added 1.19%. The SPDR gold trust holdings were unchanged at 865.89 metric tonnes. In Asia today, gold hovered around the $1350 level early on and started to firm as the Chinese came with the SGE premium back up at $7. As I write the yellow metal is sitting at the high of $1353.60. Silver traded back up to yesterdays highs at $1726, the grey metal is at $17.24 as I write. PGMs found a bid, platinum is up $12 to $947 and palladium traded as high as $1047. Gold should find initial support around yesterdays low of $1342 and at the 55 DMA $1331 below that. On the upside, the metal is trading close to the recent resistance level at $1355, a break through here and we could see another attempt at the 2018 high.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Friday 13 Apr 2018

MARKETS/MACRO: U.S. stocks closed with solid gains on Thursday as investors looked past the latest headlines and tweets coming from the White House and turned their focus to earnings season, which kicks off today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced +293.6 points, or +1.21%, to 24,483.05, the S&P500 rallied +21.8 points, or +0.83%, to 2,663.99 and the NASDAQ Composite added +71.221 points, or +1.01%, to 7,140.248. The best performing sector on the day was Financials (+1.82%), while Utilities brought up the rear (-1.28%). In Europe, stocks closed higher as the likelihood of military conflict in Syria eased. The EuroFirst 300 Index rose +9.94 points, or +0.67% to 1,485.28 and the EuroStoxx 600 inclined +2.64 points, or +0.70% to 378.82 points. Regionally the FTSE100 was fairly flat +0.02%, DAX rose +0.98% and the CAC40 climbed +0.59%. Price action in the G10 block was rather muted over the past 24 hours, although we did see the Euro come off quite heavily for a period last night on the back of fresh ECB minutes which the market took through a slightly more dovish lens. GBP was the out-performer, EURGBP ~-70bps lower on the day as U.K rates come under pressure. Base metals prices were generally weaker, as a stronger USD weighed on investor appetite. Profit taking was also prevalent after the strong gains chalked up earlier this week. Zinc led the sector lower, with prices falling over -3.3% on fears of hidden stockpiles hitting the market and speculation swirled that China’s State Reserve Bureau was planning to release inventory. Inventories on the LME are already up 10% this year, including a sudden inflow of 80kt in early March. Aluminium was the only metal in the complex to push higher, as panic buying from traders continued. The recent surge in crude oil prices eased as U.S President Trump suggested an attack on Syria wasn’t a foregone conclusion, however, traders remained on edge with Trump still discussing the U.S response with his advisors and other international allies. May WTI pushed higher on the day up +$0.34 or +0.51% to $67.16 a barrel. U.S treasuries continued to unwind with 2y yields up +4.1 bps to 2.348% and 10y yields rallying +5.5 bps to 2.836%.

On the data front, U.S import prices remained unchanged in March, despite markets expecting a small rise. On an annual basis, import prices were up +3.6%, supported largely by USD weakness over the past year (one exception being petrol prices, which were up 19% YoY). U.S initial jobless claims fell by -9k to 233k in the week ended April 7, slightly higher than a BBG forecast of 230k. Continuing claims increased by +53k to 1.87 million (BBG expectation 1.84 million). Layoffs are near a 45-year low and show no sign of rising. Companies increasingly complain about a shortage of skilled labour with the unemployment rate at a 17-year low of 4.1%, making it harder for them to fill a record number of job openings. Across the pond, Euro area industrial production fell -0.8% MoM in February following a -0.6% MoM fall in January - suggesting momentum in the Euro-zone may have peaked. The drop was led by a -3.6% fall in capital goods output (a volatile component) and a -1.6% drop in durable consumer goods. The picture across the euro area was uneven, with output falls in Germany and Italy and production increases in France, the Netherlands and Spain. Elsewhere, Minutes of the European Central Bank’s meeting suggest the central bank will move only gradually to phase out its EUR $30 billion a month bond-buying program and start raising interest rates.

PRECIOUS: Gold continued to track lower overnight trading down towards $1334 after trading at $1365 only 24 hours earlier (-2.3%). It marks the fourth attempt now that the yellow metal has pushed through into/through the $1355-60 area and subsequently sold off some $25-30 shortly after. It is obviously very heavy going above those levels with heavy spec profit taking as well as producer supply diligently capping the rallies. Yesterday gold opened in Asia at $1353 and felt a little heavy from the get-go. The metal quietly tracked lower over the first few hours of trade and picked up a little more downward momentum later in the day trading through $1350. The SGE premium was noticeably lower by around $2 or so at $5-6 over spot, which prompted Chinese selling. There was a brief pop back to the opening levels during London, but that was quickly sold into. By the time NY stepped in we were trading around $1345 and it was mainly specs and producers driving the sell-off, which remained constant throughout the rest of the session. The generally stronger USD, firmer equities and lower treasuries also weighed on metals. Palladium which has been the performing metal in the precious space over the course of this week, was exceptionally volatile overnight, selling off in dramatic fashion during the London session to a low of $948.50 only to bounce back just as sharply later in NY to hit $966 and close the day marginally higher. Investors continue to be concerned about sanctions on Russia that would result in supply side disruptions for Pd.

Gold commenced the days trade just above the o/n lows ($1335) and there was initially some opportunistic demand, with specs punting on Asian names buying when they stepped in. The metal pushed as high as $1338.50 prior to the SGE open and had a further leg up when it did edging up through $1340. The SGE premium had increased about $1 or so from where we were yesterday and demand was modest but persistent throughout the am session. Spot gold pushed through $1340 and has held in well since with some light two-way trade going through COMEX. Silver has clawed above $16.50 and is holding onto the 50 handle and palladium is trading north of yesterday's close and above $970, closing in on the 200 dma which sits at $976.50. In other markets, equities are mixed at present the Nikkei up +0.50% and ASX200 +0.35%, while the Hang Seng is down -0.10% and Shanghai Composite -0.40%. Crude is slightly softer WTI -$0.15 (-0.2%) to $67.02 and the USD is mixed narrowly mixed vs the G10. Ahead today on the Economic Calerndar look out for German CPI, U.S Jolts report and University of Michigan Sentiment index.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Monday 9 Apr 2018

MACRO: Jobs data out of the U.S. on Friday showed nonfarm payrolls increased just 103,000 during March (exp: 185,000) to follow an upwardly revised February print of 326,000 (prev: 313,000). The March print was the lowest monthly figure in six months, while January saw a downwards revision from 239,000 to 176,00. The unemployment rate held at 4.1% (exp: 4.0%) and the broader 'U-6' measure of unemployment and underemployment, which includes those who have stopped looking and those in part-time jobs who want full-time positions eased to 8.0% from 8.2% previously. Average hourly earnings printed in-line with estimates, increasing +0.3% MoM and +2.7% YoY. Equities in the U.S. ended lower on Friday following the soft jobs data and concerns over China – U.S. trade relations. The DJIA came under early pressure on reports that President Trump was considering a further USD $100 million of tariffs on Chinese goods, opening sharply lower and continuing to trade under pressure for the remainder for the session to end down -2.34% at 23,932.76 points. The S&P 500 didn’t fare much better, posting a -2.19% decline to 2,604.47 points as industrials (-2.73%) and technology (-2.53%) led all of the bourse’s components into negative territory. On a weekly basis the DJIA pulled back -0.7% and the S&P 500 sunk -1.4%. The greenback turned lower on Friday on the back of the weaker U.S. Jobs data, seeing the DXY index slide -0.4% after a notable decline against the yen. The pair touched a 107.49 high on Thursday to mark a near 6-week high, however fell underneath 107.00 on Friday to book a -0.45% fall. Treasury yields declined on Friday as prices pushed higher, seeing the 10-year 5.1bps lower to 2.779% and the two-year 3.2bps lower to 2.274%.

PRECIOUS: Gold ripped higher on Friday following the softer than expected U.S. jobs data, benefitting from a declining greenback to reverse recent weakness and end with a +0.4% gain. Asian interest in thin trade took the metal initially back above USD $1,330, however with China on leave bullion struggled to find bids to underpin the price action and pulled back from the figure. Gains to the dollar and position lightening leading into the U.S. jobs print saw bullion briefly underneath USD $1,320, however further 'trade war' related headlines sent the metal around USD $7 higher leading into the New York open. A softer than expected headline jobs figure saw a strong risk-off tone throughout the market, as equities turned sharply offered and investors fled into treasuries and the precious complex. Gold traded to a USD $1,335.25 session high before easing modestly into the close. Vols firmed following the price action to see 1m around 10.2, while ETF's registered inflows of approximately 250,000 ounces.

Asian interest on Monday saw a modest down-side skew, however bullion was generally held within a tight range and saw the USD $1,330 support respected. China's return provided a level of underlying support for the metal to reverse early session declines after gold eased around USD $4 to USD $1,330 leading into the Shanghai open. The on-shore premium in the far East held around USD $8 - $9, to see a mild bid across the spot market, however price action would be best described as supportive rather than pushing back toward opening levels. Expectations are that the recent range ($1,300 - $1,350) will to continue to be respected, with the metal highly sensitive to trade related headlines.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

 

DAILY REPORT : Wed 18 Apr 2018

MARKETS/MACRO: U.S. stocks rallied on Tuesday, with major indices closing at the highest levels in about a month as the latest round of corporate earnings supported the thought that valuations are supported by improved economic activity. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained +213.59 points, or +0.87%, to 24,786.63, the S&P500 advanced +28.55 points, or +1.07%, to 2,706.39 and the NASDAQ Composite added +124.814 points, or +1.74%, to 7,281.099. The best performing sector was Information Technology (+2.01%), while Financials trailed the pack (-0.07%). European stocks logged their best close in some 2 months, as attention shifted from geopolitical concerns to the earnings season. The EuroFirst 300 Index rallied +11.82 points, or +0.80% to 1,491.80 and the EuroStoxx 600 inclined +3.03 points, or +0.80% to 380.77. Regionally the DAX was a top performer up +1.57% on the day, with the CAC40 also impressive at +0.76% intra-day. In FX, dollar shorts were added during the Asian session yesterday and this was continued as London came on line, however, the market looked to fade this move thereafter. In particular, both the pound and the Euro pared back some of their gains in the NY session, with the former being closely watched as it continues to hover near post-Brexit highs. USDCHF was the biggest mover in the G10, up +0.6% on the day despite no news and very light flows. RUB continues to dominate the conversations in FX, ultimately finishing down -0.65% after new headlines that there once again may be additional sanctions on Russia. In fixed income, the US 2-year Treasury yield was up 1bp to 2.39%, a new decade high. The 10-year yield was lower by 1bp to 2.82% and spreads between these two maturities was the lowest since August 2007. The Geman10-year Bund yield fell 2bps to 0.51%.

China’s central bank announced yesterday it would reduce the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for most of the commercial banks in order to replace the maturing medium-term lending facility (MLF). The central bank said this move is to lower the cost of funds to the real economy, and the replacement will only increase the money supply incrementally. In Germany, the April ZEW index fell by 13 points to -8.2 (-1.0 expected), which is the first time in almost two years that it has fallen below zero. In addition to the recently weaker economic data, this is likely to be due to the trade conflict between the USA and China, the escalation of which would probably have a noticeable negative impact on the global economy. However, these are only fears of the analysts surveyed by the ZEW, and the ZEW Index has frequently given false signals in recent years. The extent to which the economy is actually losing momentum due to Trump's protectionism and other factors will be shown next week by the PMIs and the IFO business climate. In the U.S, building permits increased more than expected in March to +2.5% (+0.7% expected). The rise came amid a rebound in the construction of multi-family housing units. Weakness in the single-family segment suggested the housing market was slowing.

PRECIOUS: Gold had an inside day yesterday, trying lower through $1340 during NY, though ultimately closing fairly flat. We opened in Asia around $1346 and the initial move was higher, with some early specs looking to pick up gold cheaply ahead of what they predicted to be Chinese buying. A brief headline stating 'Missile targets Syria's Shuairat Airbase' helped the metal along as well, although Comex selling in the lead up to the $1350 cash level, capped proceedings. Later the USD started to strengthen which weighed on the yellow metal around the Shanghai open and it began to recede from $1349 to $1344, where some light two-way interest went through during the Asia am. Chinese demand was modest and it was largely fast money specs on the other side holding the market steady. Late in London/early NY the metal was swept lower following a headline that 'China was willing to cooperate with U.S on trade disagreement', and the metal dropped through $1340. There was a small stop-loss driven run to the days low of $1337.65, before quickly reversing. The general market sentiment was 'risk on' throughout NY, so it was a little surprising that the yellow managed to recover all the way back to the opening levels and close at $1347. Palladium continued its recent volatility with supply concerns continuing to worry traders, especially with the likelihood of further sanctions on Russia - the worlds largest producer. Pd flatlined throughout Asia around $1005 then ticked up to $1010 in London, before some swift and brutal profit taking was seen in a very thin market. The metal plummeted to $986.50, although found buyers down there. As the base metals began to tick higher, the palladium followed suit and shot to its highest level since early March ($1015), closing firm only a dollar or so off that level. The grey metal is now within striking distance of the 100 dma ($1021.50), with a clear break likely to extend towards $1045 resistance. Silver has again been pushing up against the topside of the range overnight ($16.80-95), with big resistance at the 200 dma (currently $16.80) keeping the brakes on - as it has very effectively since early February. There has been a lot of talk about how short the silver market is of late and an extended break through $17.00 would be very precarious for a number of specs out there.

A quiet session in Asia again for the metals gold steadily trading lower throughout the day. The yellow metal opened at the day's highs and slowly meandered its way lower prior to Japan and China opening towards $1345. The volume exchanged throughout the morning was extremely light however and traders were taking direction from the USD which was slightly stronger vs. most of the G10. Once the SGE opened up for business the premiums were largely unchanged from the previous day, sitting at $6-7, so interest was very limited. So some light buying flows were seen, yet gold continued to quietly edge lower over the afternoon towards $1343, where we currently sit. Silver followed gold and eased a few cents lower, while the PGM's are flat, palladium holding onto the gains seen overnight around $1015. In other markets, Asian equities are currently all in the black, the Nikkei +1.4%, Hang Seng +0.65%, Shanghai Composite +0.25% and ASX200 +0.35%, the USD is mixed and crude is stronger, WTI is up +$0.37 (+0.55%) to $67.05 and Brent has gained +$0.50 (+0.75%) to $72.10. On the data front today look out for UK and Eurozone CPI, BoC rate decision and U.S Mortgage applications and Beige Book.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 12 Apr 2018

MACRO: The FOMC minutes released overnight showed members now have greater confidence in reaching the 2% inflation target and affirmed plans to increase short-term interest rates gradually. The minutes also showed officials raised concerns over the implications of retaliatory trade actions on the U.S. economy, with particular focus on the agricultural industry. CPI in the U.S. declined -0.1% MoM during March (exp: 0.0%), the first negative result since May 2017. The soft headline figure was weighed down by gasoline prices as they fell -4.9% during March, while ‘core’ CPI, which excludes food and energy, added +0.2% MoM to be in-line with expectations. On an annualised basis CPI increased +2.4% YoY from +2.2% previously, while core CPI ticked higher to +2.1% YoY from +1.8% previously. Equity markets in the U.S tracked lower on Wednesday, under-pressure following a heightening of geopolitical tensions after a number of tweets from President Trump suggesting the U.S. was preparing for a military strike in Syria. The DJIA declined -0.9% to 24,189.45 points, while the S&P 500 dipped -0.55% to 2,642.19 points as telecoms (-1.49%) led nine of eleven sectors lower. The greenback ended trade modestly lower on Wednesday, however was able to pare declines late in trade to limit the fall of the DXY index to just -0.1%.

PRECIOUS: The heightened geopolitical tensions underpinned a leg higher to bullion on Wednesday, with large volumes registered through Comex as Gold ended over +1% higher. Comments regarding strikes on Syria from President Trump initiated the risk-off tone to send equities sharply lower and buoy bullion. Strength leading into the New York open took gold through USD $1,350, while further support on the back of the U.S. CPI print saw the metal through the figure to touch a session high of USD $1,365.45. Solid offers above USD $1,360 weighed upon the metal late in trade following the FOMC minutes release to restrict further gains and keeping the metal still within the recent range (Jan high was USD $1,366). Silver took out both the 100 DMA (USD $16.63) and the 200 DMA (16.79) on the way to a USD $16.88 session high, however pared gains late in trade to end +0.7% higher around USD $16.65.

Asian trade today saw reasonably tepid price action amid solid volumes, with early session offers seeing bullion test underneath USD $1,350, however interest around the figure restricted any further weakness. Expectations are that USD $1,350 will act as an initial pivot point for near-term pricing, however more importantly key down-side support around USD $1,335 - $1,340 should provide a base for a further test through the Jan high of USD $1,366. Silver's overnight move above the 200 DMA was an important print for the metal, however disappointedly was unable to close above the figure. The 100 DMA at USD $16.63 will form the next level of support and below this the 50 DMA around USD $16.50. With regards to the white metals, palladium was a major mover overnight as tensions with Russia increase, testing toward the 200 DMA at USD $975 to end +1.5% higher. Data today includes Eurozone industrial production, U.S. initial jobless claims and U.S. import prices.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Friday 6 Apr 2018

MACRO: US equities closed higher for the third consecutive session on Thursday ahead of tonight's non-farm payroll data release. The Dow rose 240.92 points, or 0.99%, to 24,505.22, the S&P 500 gained 18.15 points, or 0.69% to 2,662.84, while the Nasdaq added 34.444 points, or 049%, to 7,076.552. There were wins for materials (+1.87%), energy (1.81%) and consumer discretionary (+1.37%) in a nearly broad advance in stocks. European equities soared in what was the best one day rally in two years, the EuroSTOXX climbed 8.80 points, or 2.40%, to 376.13, the German DAX advanced 347.29 points, or 2.90%, to 12,305.19, and the London FTSE 100 surged 165.49 points, or 2.90%, to 7,199.50. In the currencies, the US dollar index rose 0.34% to 90.447, the EUR traded down to 1.2221 while USD/JPY was as high as 107.45. US treasury yields were higher, the 2 year yield firmed 1.02 bps to 2.3026% and the 10 year yield added 2.93 bps to 2.8320%. In commodities, oil prices were higher as Brent rallied 0.69% to $68.49 and WTI rose 0.57% to $63.73. Base metals were mostly higher, with copper (1.37%) leading the gains. In US economic data, the trade deficit rose 1.6% to a nearly 10 year high of $57.6 billion in February. Imports increased 1.7% to $262 billion while exports also rose 1.7%. Initial jobless claims rose by 24k to 242k in the week ending March 31. Continuing claims fell 64k to 1.81 million. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei is at +0.05%, the Shanghai composite is at -0.18%, the Hang Seng at +1.21%, and the ASX S&P 200 is at +0.10%. Tonight we have non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, hourly earnings, and consumer credit out of the US; plus retail PMI out the Eurozone and industrial production from Germany.

PRECIOUS: Fairly ordinary session for the precious in the absence of China and ahead of tonight's NFP numbers. Gold opened at $1332 and, after an early bump up toward $1335, drifted lower through the day. Volume was thin without the Chinese participants and the firming USD/JPY put pressure on the market. London were a little more bullish and bought the metal back up to $1330 during the morning session. Trading was choppy in early NY hours with the yellow metal printing the days low of $1322, a more subdued afternoon saw gold finish up at $1326. Silver faired better, the grey metal dipped to a low of $16.19 in early NY trading but managed to rally and close at $16.35. The rout in palladium continued, the metal was dumped to a seven month low $901 and is now trading lower than platinum, which finished the session at $911. The Philadelphia gold and silver index added 0.77%. The SPDR gold trust holdings rose 0.24% to 854.09 metric tons. In todays trading, gold found an early bid and traded up to $1333 with the Chinese still out, however resting orders around yesterdays high capped the market.. USD/JPY rebounded back above 107 and gold has now slipped back to the opening levels. The yellow metal is at $1327.30 as I write. Silver traded up to $16.43 earlier in the day but has slipped to $16.31 as I write. PGMs are flat, with palladium find support ahead of the $900 level. All eyes on the US tonight for the NFP numbers, given the market volatility we have seen over the past week it would be no surprise to see some action following the release. Gold should find initial resistance at yesterdays high at $1334 with the April high of $1347 to follow. First support will be at $1322 with the 100 DMA at $1311 below that.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 17 Apr 2018

MACRO: US equities rallied on Monday as geopolitical concerns appear to be easing. The Dow added 212.90 points, or 0.87%, to 24,573.04, the S&P 500 rose 21.54 points, or 0.81% to 2,677.84, while the Nasdaq gained 49.635 points, or 0.7%, to 7,156.285. Telecoms (+1.49%), utilities (1.38%), and materials (+1.38%) led a broad advance in the markets. European equities were lower, the EuroSTOXX lost 1.46 points, or 0.39%, to 377.74, the German DAX fell 50.99 points, or 0.41%, to 12,391.41, and the London FTSE 100 slipped 66.36 points, or 0.91%, to 7,198.20. In the currencies, the US dollar index eased 0.41% to 89.432, the EUR traded up to 1.2388, while USD/JPY traded down to 107.04. US treasury yields were mixed, the 2 year yield firmed 2.07 bps to 2.3773% and the 10 year yield was unchanged at 2.8267%. In commodities, oil prices were lower as Brent sold off 1.38% to $71.58 and WTI lost 1.56% to $66.34. Base metals were broadly higher, with aluminium (+4.99%) leading the way higher. In US economic data, retail sales rose 0.6% in March following a 0.1% decline in February, the gain breaks a run of three straight monthly declines. Retail sales ex-autos rose 0.2% for a second straight month. The Empire State manufacturing index fell to 15.8 in April from a reading of 22.5 in March. The new orders index fell 7.8 points to 9 in April and the shipments index fell to 17.5. The National Association of Home Builders confidence index slipped to 69 in April from 70 in March. Business inventories rose 0.6% in February following a 0.6% rise in January, according to the Commerce Department. The total business inventories/sales ratio was 1.35 in February. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei is at +0.01%, the Shanghai composite is at -0.21%, the Hang Seng at +0.03%, and the ASX S&P 200 is at +0.42%. Tonight we have housing starts, building permits, industrial production, and capacity utilisation out of the US; and economic sentiment out of the Eurozone.

PRECIOUS: A volatile session for the precious in the first trading day following the US missile strikes on Syria on Friday evening. Gold was fairly choppy during Asian hours, an early dip down to the days low of $1340 was followed by quick recovery back to the opening levels around $1345, then on to $1348 as the Chinese came in. The SGE premium was at $8 which prompted buying out of China, but the market was capped around that $1348 mark. A sell-off in late Asian hours saw the market slide to $1341 by the opening bell in London. More whippy trade through the London AM session as the US dollar was sold sharply against the EUR. The yellow metal found a bid in NY and climbed to the session high $1350, though resting orders at that level provided firm resistance. Gold finally settled to a close around the opening level at $1345. Silver printed a high of $16.77 but ultimately gave up the gains in a whippy session. Palladium picked up where it left off last week, surging 2.5% to a high of $1011 and trading above the $1000 level for the first time since mid-March. The Philadelphia gold and silver index lost 0.12%. The SPDR gold trust holdings were unchanged at 865.69 metric tonnes. Gold ticked up a couple of dollars after the open in Asia, and on to a high of $1348.80 as USD/JPY dipped below 107. The SGE premium is unchanged at around $8 over loco London. The yellow metal is drifting lower as the afternoon progresses, and is sitting at $1344.50 as I write. Silver is flat at $16.66. In the PGMs, platinum is edging higher and palladium is holding above $1000. Gold should find broad support between $1340-42 and at the 55 DMA level at $1331 below that. The $1350 level which has held over the last couple of days will be the first point of resistance, a consolidation above that level could see the yellow metal make another attempt on the 2018 high of $1364.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

 

DAILY REPORT : Wed 11 Apr 2018

MARKETS/MACRO: The 'risk on' trade returned overnight after Chinese President Xi Jinping cooling trade war fears in a speech at the Asian Boao Forum. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged +428.90 points, or +1.79%, to 24,408.00, the S&P500 rallied +43.71 points, or +1.67%, to 2,656.87 and the NASDAQ Composite leapt +143.957 points, or +2.07%, to 7,094.30. The best performing sector was Energy (+3.32%), while the defensive REIT's ( -0.76%) suffered. European stocks were equally strong, with most markets rallying to month highs. The EuroFirst 300 index jumped +12.74 points, or +0.87% to 1,484.28 and the EuroStoxx 600 advanced +3.12 points, or +0.83% to 378.42. Regionally the FTSE100 inclined +1.0%, DAX +1.11% and CAC40 +0.84%. Crude oil prices surged higher following Xi's speech, with Brent pushing through USD $70.00 a barrel to reach its highest level since early 2014. Sentiment was also buoyed by reports that Saudi Arabia is now targeting USD $80 a barrel for Brent crude oil prices according to BBG. This news broke just as the Kingdom released a statement saying it plans to keep exports below 7 million b/d again in May. This will be the 12th month in a row that exports have been below this key target however. This bullish tone was further exacerbated by comments from the head of the IEA’s oil industry and markets division Neil Atkinson, saying oil inventories will be below their five year average 'soon'. In FX, it was a relatively quiet session with muted action in G10; the move in RUB still the focal point as the US sanctions continue to put serious pressure on the currency. Elsewhere, the AUD continued to trade well technically while benefitting from the underlying bid to commodities. The JPY sold-off, in-line with the rally in risk and USDCNH dropped through 6.30 post Xi and never looked back. Treasury yields pushed higher in the risk on environment with the U.S 10y yield increasing +2.19bps to 2.801% and the U.S 2y yield rising +2.86bps to 2.3069%.

Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday promised to open the country’s economy further and lower import tariffs on products including cars, in a speech that comes amid rising trade tensions between China and the U.S. Xi also said China would raise the foreign ownership limit in the automobile sector “as soon as possible” and push previously announced measures to open the financial sector. “This year, we will considerably reduce auto import tariffs, and at the same time reduce import tariffs on some other products”, Xi said at the Chinese Boao Forum for Asia in Hainan province. They come amid rising trade tensions between China and the United States following a week of escalating tariff threats sparked by U.S. frustration with China’s trade and intellectual property policies. Xi said that China will take measures to sharply widen market access for foreign investors. China will also speed up opening of its insurance sector to foreign investors, he said.

PRECIOUS: Precious metal market focus remains on the consequences of recent Russian sanctions by the U.S, with palladium prices surging as a result. Russia is the world's largest exporter of the metal and the risk of further sanctions has helped propel the price higher (+2.5% yesterday). This is on top of the fact the metal has been in gross under-supply for the past 6 months. Support sits now at $900 (Fibonacci level), with a target now sitting at the 200 dma ($975). Gold performed reasonably well yesterday considering the general 'risk on' sentiment following President Xi's speech, slowly grinding higher throughout Europe and the U.S sessions. The yellow metal was sold off in Asia yesterday, following a brief spike right around the open of Tocom to around $1328. China however were sellers and the spot market quickly edged back down toward $1334 and then $1332 later in the afternoon. As London traders walked in however some modest demand began to creep in and the price slowly headed north. The metal remained fairly resilient despite Xi easing tensions over the China-US trade war and the metal continued to angle higher. Spec bids continued to push the market through $1340 towards the end of the session and we closed right on $1340. The precious sector has been given a boost on the back of rising base metal prices over the past days (Aluminium +10% in 3 days) and it looks set to continue, with interest picking up in upside options. Gold and silver, for now, remain within the broad range however and we expect good supply around $1360 and $16.80 respectively. A break of these levels though could see some shorts squeezed.

Another quiet day today for Asia, with the gold edging higher throughout the day. The yellow metal opened around $1340 and edged higher over the next few hours touching a peak of $1342.50 before the China open. Again the Chinese were on the offer with the premium a little lower than the previous session at between $6-8 over Loco London gold for onshore traders. Once the SGE opened the spot gold dropped back towards $1340 where it did a little work into the afternoon, contained to a tight $1 range. Silver followed gold for the most part throughout the day and the PGM's were flat following last nights impressive moves. In other markets equities were mixed with the Nikkei and ASX200 currently trading lower at -0.3% and -0.5% respectively, while the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng are up +0.7% and +0.8%. Both WTI and Brent crude are currently down on the day -0.35% a piece at $65.32 and $70.77 respectively and the USD is generally softer against the G10, with the exception of AUD. Ahead today on the data front, U.S CPI data will take centre stage. We also have FOMC minutes and UK Industrial production and trade balance.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 5 Apr 2018

MACRO: The Chinese finance ministry announced on Wednesday that it would impose additional tariffs of 25 per cent on 106 U.S. goods, including soybeans, cars, chemicals, corn products and other agricultural goods, with the products targeted by the tariffs worth USD $50 billion in 2017. The move came following an announcement from the Trump Administration that a 25 per cent tariff would be imposed on 1,300 types of industrial technology, transport and medical products in a bid to force changes to China’s intellectual property practices. The suggested U.S. imposed tariffs would not take place immediately, rather be open for public comment until May 11, with a hearing set for May 15. The ‘tit-for-tat’ action saw equities in the U.S. open sharply lower as investor’s struggled to grasp the implications of the latest round of economic protectionism. Equity markets endured a volatile session following the tariff announcements, with each of the three major bourse's falling more than -1% in early session trade before rebounding sharply. The DJIA ended trade +0.96% higher to 24,264.30 points, traversing an astounding 700 points from the session low to closing level. The S&P 500 slipped below the important 200 DMA briefly before turning higher to book a +1.16% return to 2,644.69 points, finding support from consumer discretionary stocks (+1.81%) as all components with the exception of energy (-0.14%) closed higher. The Nasdaq Composite jumped +1.45% to 7,042.107 points and in the process marked the best single-session comeback since early February. Private payrolls in the U.S. increased by 241,000 during March according to the latest ADP report, outpacing the estimated 210,000 and generally in-line with February’s upwardly revised 246,000 increase (prev: 235,000). Service providers were responsible for the bulk of the hires, adding 176,000 payrolls, while goods producing industries gained 65,000 hires. Medium sized firms (50-499 employees) led the way to add 127,000 jobs, large firms (499+) gained 67,000 and small firms (1-49) increased by 47,000. U.S. factory orders increased +1.2% during February (exp: +1.7%) to follow a -1.3% decline during January. The headline figure was supported by a +7.0% increase in orders for transportation equipment, driven by a +26.2% surge in orders for civilian aircraft. On an annualised basis orders jumped +7.9% YoY during February. Non-defence capital goods meanwhile increased +1.4% MoM. European markets edged lower on Wednesday as investor’s considered the likelihood of a ‘trade war’ between the U.S. and China. The Stoxx Europe 600 pulled back -0.47% to 367.33 points, the export-heavy German Dax dipped -0.37% to 11,957.90 points as autos lost ground, while the French CAC eased -0.20% to 5,141.80 points. In the U.K. the FTSE edged just +0.05% higher to finish at 7,034.01 points after recovering from early session weakness. The greenback eased marginally lower on Wednesday to see the DXY index off -0.1%, however saw strength against the yen to reverse an early European test of 106.00 and book a +0.15% return.

PRECIOUS: Asian pricing on Thursday skewed to the down-side in a continuation of the overnight weakness, with the market lacking the usual demand out of Shanghai as China took leave for the Ching Ming Festival. An early session move toward USD $1,335 saw offers around the Fibonacci retracement level cap in further gains, seeing pricing tailing off into the afternoon in the face of mild dollar headwinds. Late Asian offers took the metal underneath the 50 DMA at USD $1330.50 and while further declines have so far been muted, we will look to the figure as a pivot point for further price direction as we head into Friday's U.S. jobs data. Should bullion see further weakness, we look to initial support toward USD $1,320, while the 100 DMA underneath this will act to restrict further declines. Weakness in silver continued today as the metal once again failed to make headway through resistance levels overnight. Although held within a tight range in Asia, the metal, much like gold, skewed to the down-side throughout the session and will look to hold recent support levels around USD $16.20, of which has been tested numerous times over the past fortnight. Data releases today include German factory orders, Markit services & composite PMI prints from Italy, France, Germany, the Eurozone and the U.K., U.S. initial jobless claims, U.S. trade balance and U.S. Bloomberg consumer confidence.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

DAILY REPORT : Monday 16 Apr 2018

MACRO: The United States, in cooperation with Britain and France, launched missile strikes against Syria on Friday evening. The strikes targeted Syrian chemical weapons facilities and were a direct response to a chemical attack carried out in the country earlier in the week. The assault has heightened tensions between and the US and both Russia and Iran, who support Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. The US stock markets, which had closed before the air strikes were reported, finished lower on Friday despite some positive first quarter earnings reports. The Dow lost 122.91 points, or 0.50%, to 24,360.14, the S&P 500 fell 7.69 points, or 0.29% to 2,656.30, while the Nasdaq sold off 33.598 points, or 0.47%, to 7,106.650. There were wins for energy (+1.09%) and utilities (+0.69%) while financials (-1.55%) and consumer discretionary (-0.57%) led the laggards. European equities were higher, the EuroSTOXX added 0.38 points, or 0.10%, to 379.20, the German DAX advanced 27.39 points, or 0.22%, to 12,442.40, and the London FTSE 100 rose 6.22 points, or 0.09%, to 7,264.56. In the currencies, the US dollar index added 0.05% to 89.80, the EUR was as low as 1.231, while USD/JPY traded up to 107.53. US treasury yields were mixed, the 2 year yield firmed 0.86 bps to 2.3566% and the 10 year yield eased 0.91 bps to 2.8267%. In commodities, oil prices were higher as Brent rose 0.78% to $72.58 and WTI gained 0.48% to $67.39. Base metals were mostly higher, with nickel (1.64%) leading the gains. In US economic data, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to 97.8 in April from a reading of 101.4 in March. The index of current economic conditions fell to 115 from 121.2 in March, while the expectations index fell to 86.8 from 88.8. The Labor Department reported that job openings declined to 6.05 million in February from 6.23 million in January. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei is at +0.21%, the Shanghai composite is at -1.34%, the Hang Seng at -1.51%, and the ASX S&P 200 is at +0.19%. Tonight we have retail sales, the Empire State index, the home builders index, and business inventories out of the US.

PRECIOUS: The precious mounted a rally after heavy losses in the previous session.Gold opened at $1335 in Asia and found an early bid after the previous session's sell-off. The market reached $1340 before a dip toward the opening level late in the day. London came in and bought the metal back above $1340, however a sweep lower saw gold trade down to $1333 late in the AM session. NY came in on the bid and sent the yellow metal up to $1345, this was followed by a slow grind up to the days high of $1346 late in the session. Silver followed a similar trajectory, with a rally in NY hours pushing the grey metal to equal the previous session high at $16.68. Palladium capped off an impressive week by surging to an April high $987, the metal put on over 9% for the week. The Philadelphia gold and silver index added 1.59%. The SPDR gold trust holdings were unchanged at 865.89 metric tonnes. In todays trading, news of the US air strike on Syria over the weekend have not had as big of an impact as we may have expected. Gold dipped to $1340 on the open before rebounding quickly to $1344. The high of $1348.10 was reached with USD/JPY coming off and the SGE premium around $8. The yellow metal is drifting lower as the afternoon progresses, it is sitting at $1343.80 as I write. Silver has been fairly range-bound today, again finding resistance at the 16.68 level. The grey metal is at $16.60 as I write. PGM's are flat. Gold should find some healthy support at the 55 DMA level at $1331 and the April low of $1321 below that. On the upside, expect resting orders around the $1350 level and at the 3 month high $1364 we saw last week.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

 

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 10 Apr 2018

MACRO: Equity markets in the U.S. pared gains late in trade on Monday, weighed lower on reports that the Federal Bureau of Investigation had raided the office of Donald Trump’s personal lawyer, Michael Cohen. After trading over +1% higher mid-session, the DJIA sharply declined into the close to add just +0.19% to 23,979.10 points, while gains to six of eleven sectors of the S&P 500 led by healthcare (+0.93%), saw the bourse to a +0.33% return at 2,613.16 points. The greenback traded softer on Monday to follow equity markets lower late in trade, seeing the DXY index off -0.36% as USD/JPY dropped below 107.00. Oil futures started the week on a positive note, gaining ground on the back of a relief rally as trade-war concerns eased somewhat. WTI tacked on around +2.2% to end at USD $63.40 per barrel, while Brent crude jumped +2.4% to USD $68.65 per barrel. Markets in Europe pushed higher on Monday as market participants benefitted from a cooling of trade tension between the U.S. and China, however Russian stocks slumped following fresh U.S. sanctions. The Stoxx Europe 600 inched +0.13% higher to 375.30 points, the German DAX added +0.17% to 12,261.75 points, while in the U.K. the FTSE 100 gained +0.15% to 7,194.75 points.

PRECIOUS: Gold returned the majority of the overnight premium during Asian trade today, wiping away gains made in New York to test back toward USD $1,330. With a lack of trade-war headlines on Monday, it took reports of an FBI raid on Trump's personal lawyer's office to dampen the dollar's spirits and push equities sharply lower. Bullion benefitted from the news to break through recent resistance around USD $1,335, testing to a USD $1,337.05 session high as USD/JPY sunk underneath 107.00. The metal remained capped underneath USD $1,340 (futures) into the close, however was able to book a +0.2% gain on the session. The major movers overnight were the white metal's, predominately palladium (+2.8%) following the fresh round of U.S. sanctions on Russia.

Asian price direction on Tuesday was largely dominated by Chinese President Xi Jinping's speech at the Boao forum on China's Hainan island, whereby the Chinese leader spoke with a conciliatory tone and sought to diffuse trade tensions. Mr Xi's comments provided respite for the greenback, pushing around +0.4% higher against the yen, while U.S. equity futures moved higher to sit around +1.3%. The move to a risk-on tone took bullion lower in early Chinese trade, declining from a session high around USD $1,338 to USD $1,333, before weakness extended to a session low of USD $1,331.10. Near-term pricing is likely to see bullion pull back as trade-war tensions subside following todays comments in Boao, with initial support for the metal sitting around USD $1,330 (50 DMA), while below this the recent support at USD $1,320 will act to restrict further declines. Data releases today include Industrial production out of France and Italy, U.S. small business optimism and U.S. PPI.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

 

DAILY REPORT : Wed 4 Apr 2018

MARKETS/MACRO: U.S equities closed higher Tuesday, following a volatile session that saw major indices fluctuate widely as investors digested a sharp retreat a day earlier and gauged the likelihood of both trade risk and further weakness in tech names. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained +389.17 points, or +1.65%, to 24,033.36, the S&P500 bounced back +32.57 points, or +1.26%, to 2,614.45 and the NASDAQ Composite added +71.16 points, or +1.04%, to 6,941.282. The best performing sector was Energy (+2.14%), while REITs struggled but still managed to close in positive territory (+0.31%). European stocks finished lower, dogged by the soggy technology sector and ongoing concerns about a full-blown trade-war with China firing back at the U.S this week. The EuroFirst 300 index slumped -6.5 points, or -0.45% to 1,445.81 and the EuroStoxx 600 slid -1.80 points, or -0.49% to 369.07. Regionally the FTSE100 shed -0.37%, the DAX lost -0.78% and CAC40 dipped -0.29%. Crude oil ended the day higher (WTI +$0.56 , +0.89% to $63.57) after the American Petroleum Institute reported a surprise draw of 3.28 million barrels of United States crude oil inventories in the week ended March 30. Analysts had anticipated a modest build in crude oil inventories of +246k barrels. In FX, JPY was the worst preforming currency in G10 as macro risks seem to have dissipated post yesterday’s large equity sell off. Positioning still suggests that there’s a decent amount of JPY longs, though Japan’s inflation figures on Friday did little to substantiate Kuroda’s comments that there could be a BoJ exit anytime soon and offers keep USDJPY rallies well capped. The rates market saw yields grind higher throughout the day as a result of the higher equities and some decent corporate supply. Goldman Sachs analysts note that positioning is now much cleaner and with no clear catalyst to propel the next leg of the sell-off, shorts have been reduced dramatically, particularly in the front-end. The U.S 2y yield closed up 3.23 bps at 2.278% and the 10y yield accelerated +4.5 bps to 2.775%.

The trade war rhetoric has heated up again with China officially notifying the World Trade Organisation it is imposing $611.5 million worth of retaliatory tariffs on $2.75 billion worth of U.S. imports - including pork, nuts and ethanol. The move was in response to U.S. duties on aluminium and steel, a WTO document showed. The document, dated last Thursday but posted only after the Easter public holidays, came after China said late on Sunday it has increased tariffs by up to 25 percent on 128 U.S. products, escalating the dispute between the world’s two largest economies. China has fulfilled its legal duty to notify the WTO and other member states of its retaliatory measures.

On the data front it was a fairly quiet day yesterday. Euro-zone manufacturing PMI was finalised at 56.6 in March, unrevised, yet down from February’s final reading of 58.6. It’s also the biggest fall in the series since mid 2011. Markit noted a broad slowdown across “all nations”, with increased signs of “supply chain constraints”. The German manufacturing sector sank for a third month running, its Markit PMI reading hitting 58.2, its lowest level since July 2017 and lower than last week’s flash estimate of 58.4. The survey reported that growing demand for input materials was increasing the prices of inputs, including of raw materials like steel, and placing suppliers under pressure to keep up. German retail sales however improved YoY, up +1.3% in Feb.

PRECIOUS: Gold struggled to hold on to Monday's gains as a steadier risk sentiment descended on global markets, in particular it was a stronger USD and U.S equity market that took the wind out of gold's sails. Gold opened the session at $1341.50 in Asia yesterday with flows skewed to the sell-side in early trade. Once Shanghai opened the flows seen on the offer only increased, with the SGE premium relaxing towards $6-7 over the spot price. Spot dipped below $1340 during the Asian hours although didn't really accelerate too much through there, with some steady buying on Comex absorbing much of the Asian supply. There was a brief spike right around the time European traders took the books, although there were a number of investors happy to book profits above $1340 and we quickly sank back below that level. Again on the NY open there was a spike brief spike back to $1342 - a third time - before the USD and equity market began to exhibit some strength. This saw the metal lose ground fairly rapidly and trade as low as $1329.15. Some intra-day profit taking then pushed us back into the mid $1330's, where we remained for the rest of the session, ultimately closing at $1332.50. We seem range-bound for now in gold with producer/spec selling still weighing up towards the range highs $1345-55, while concerns over a continuing trade war have kept the market buoyant on dips - expect good support between $1300-1315. Either way, at this juncture it appears it will take a significant trigger to break out of the current range. Silver had a spectacular fall from grace, touching a high $16.60 right after the NY open and then sharply tumbling to $16.39 and settling just off that. Platinum was very soft, off more than -1.0% while palladium was extremely volatile yet managed to close fairly flat, despite good auto sales out of the U.S.

It was a slow day in Asia today and the last day China will be in for the week, out Thursday and Friday for their Ching Ming Festival holiday. Gold opened at $1333 and tracked sideways for the majority of the morning leading into the SGE open. With the lower gold price the SGE premium had ticked up a little on the previous day to USD $7-8 over loco London. This drew out some light demand although in all honesty the volume was very muted, with Chinese investors appearing to have already done the majority of their pre-holiday business. Gold edged up a few dollars after China came in and continued up toward $1336.00 and has since gradually traded down to $1334. Silver and the PGM's have been similarly quiet. On the data front today Australian retail sales came in better than expected at +0.6% (+0.3% expected, +0.2% prior), while Chinese Caixin PMI services and composite came in lower than expected at 52.3 and 51.8 respectively. In other markets equities are currently mixed the Hang Seng is down -1.7%, Shanghai Composite -0.2%, while the Nikkei and ASX200 are modestly higher at present +0.15% each. The dollar remains flat against the G10 and crude is currently softer on the day, May WTI down -$0.28 (-0.45%) to $63.30.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.