DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 25 Sep 2018

MARKETS/MACRO The Chicago Federal Reserve’s measure of economic activity showed robust factory output during August. The index held at 0.18 (exp: 0.20) following an upwards revision to July’s print (prev: 0.13), while the less-volatile three-month moving average skipped higher to 0.24 during August from 0.02 previously. Production related indicators contributed 0.16 in August from 0.10 in July, while employment related indicators lagged to contribute -0.01. The Dallas Federal Reserve measure of economic activity softened marginally during September, easing to 28.1 (exp: 31.0) from 30.9 previously. Equities in the U.S. ended lower on Monday as U.S. – China tariffs began to take effect and investors looked toward this weeks’ FOMC meeting. The DJIA declined -0.68% to 26,562.05 points, while weakness across real estate (- 1.89%), consumer staples (-1.50%) and materials (-1.32%) weighed upon the S&P 500 to see the bourse end -0.35% lower at 2,919.37 points. The Nasdaq Composite meanwhile bucked the trend to add +0.08% to 7,993.25 points. The greenback saw weakness in early New York on Monday, however was able to pare declines to end relatively unchanged. The dollar saw initial weakness against the euro following comments from ECB President Mario Draghi regarding an expected increase in underlying inflation, however soon recovered as focus returned back to the upcoming FOMC meeting. Markets in Europe traded heavily on Monday as trade jitters returned. The Stoxx Europe 600 sunk -0.56% to 382.47 points, the German Dax fell -0.64% to 12,350.82 points, while in the U.K. the FTSE 100 handed back -0.42% to 7,458.41 points on the back of a stronger pound.

PRECIOUS Further range bound price action during Asian hours today, with participants seemingly happy to sit on the sidelines and await the results from the upcoming FOMC meeting. China returned from Monday’s holiday and provided little in the way of price direction as USD/China held relatively stable to keep the onshore premium towards USD $6 - $7. Participants remain on the offer through USD $1,200 to cap any tests above the figure, while interest toward USD $1,192 - $1,195 continues to provide support. With regards to dollar direction, we see a number of ECB speakers today, with the potential for further comments regarding inflation trajectory similar to that of President Draghi yesterday. We saw a move through 1.18 on Monday, however it is difficult to see a sustained 1.18 handle before the Fed’s likely interest rate hike on Wednesday. Comex gold expiry today with notable size around USD $1,200, which is likely to keep the metal around the figure over the near-term. Silver struggles to make any headway through USD $14.40 and remained heavy during Asian trade today, looking likely to re-test underneath USD $14.20 over the near-term. Palladium posted further gains on Monday, however turned offered late 2 in Asia today to pare these gains. The metal is finding resistance above USD $1,060 difficult to break through and may be open to a leg lower following a recent increase in positioning amid stable forwards. Data releases today include U.S. S&P Core Logic house prices, The Richmond Fed manufacturing index and the conference board consumer confidence.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Wed 19 Sep 2018

MARKETS/MACRO In trade related news, President Trump announced that the U.S. would be placing a 10% tariff on around USD $200 billion of Chinese imports from September 24, rising to 25% at the end of 2018. In retaliation, China announced tariffs on USD $60 billion of U.S. exports. Home builder confidence in the U.S. remained elevated during September according to the latest NAHB survey results, largely a result of softening lumber prices from recent record high levels. The NAHB housing market index held at 67 (exp: 66) as a firmer labor market also helped to support the print. Equities in the U.S. firmed on Tuesday as participants largely ignored the ongoing trade concerns as both the U.S. and China announced a fresh round of tariffs. The DJIA jumped +0.71% to 26,246.96 points to mark the best session in nearly threeweeks, while gains to consumer discretionary (+1.27%) and industrials (+0.89%) supported the S&P 500 +0.54% higher to 2,904.31 points. Oil futures ripped higher on Tuesday on the back of supply concerns out of Iran. WTI jumped +1.4% to USD $69.85 per barrel, while Brent crude climbed +1.3% to USD $79.03 per barrel. The greenback saw mixed trade on Tuesday, however was able to strengthen late in trade, pushing higher with treasury yields to see the DXY index gain +0.04% following early session tariff related weakness. The 10-year treasury yield pushed to 3.048% to mark the highest rate since May, while the two-year yield climbed 1.3bps higher to 2.80%, marking a near decade-long high. European equity markets ended higher, however held a relatively tight range amid the ongoing trade war headlines. The Europe Stoxx 600 tacked on +0.11% to 378.73 points, while the German Dax found support from autos to end +0.51% higher at 12,157.67 points. In the U.K. the FTSE 100 (-0.03%) closed little changed as the pound edged modestly higher on positive Brexit progress.

PRECIOUS Bullion saw mixed price action on Tuesday, however ultimately ended softer to slip underneath USD $1,200 during New York trade. Although losing touch with the USD $1,200 handle in early Asian trade following the fresh tariff announcement from President Trump, the yellow metal was generally well supported throughout the Asian session and interest was clear toward the recent support around USD $1,195. London opened on the bid following the retaliatory Chinese tariffs and had the metal back above USD $1,200, however the bid tone was soon exhausted, and New York offered the metal back underneath the figure as the greenback recovered from earlier weakness. Gold vols have softened marginally in recent sessions as we continue to hold within a tight range. The main movers overnight were the white metals, with platinum ripping through USD $800 on a tightening forward market to add +1.6%, while palladium finally consolidated above the 200 DMA to reclaim USD $1,000 and end +2.7% higher. A positive session for the precious complex during Asian trade today, reclaiming USD $1,200 following headlines out of China from Premier Li Keqiang noting that they will not engage in competitive currency devaluations. USD/China turned offered on the headlines, broadly weighing upon the greenback to support gold higher. The metal pushed above USD $1,200 into the Chinese lunch break and continued to see interest throughout the afternoon. Once again we are stuck in the middle of the recent range and will look to USD $,1200 as the first support, with broad extension toward USD $1,193 - $1,195. Resistance still sits around USD $1,205, with the key break-out level through USD $1,215. Platinum will now look to consolidate above USD $800 for a move to USD $850, while palladium should see support around the 200 DMA to target USD $1,040 - $1,050. Data today includes U.K. CPI, RPI and PPI, U.S. mortgage applications and U.S. housing starts.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 13 Sep 2018

MARKETS/MACRO US equities were finished mostly higher amid reports that the US is proposing follow up trade talks with China after last month’s efforts proved fruitless. The Dow added 27.86 points, or 0.11%, to 25,998.92, the S&P 500 inched up 1.03 points, or 0.04%, to 2,888.92, while the Nasdaq fell 18.245 points, or 0.23%, to 7,954.229. There were wins for telecoms (+1.42%) and consumer staples (+1.25%) while financials (- 0.89%) and tech (-0.89%), which was weighed down by a 1.24% loss for Apple on the back of their new iPhone launch, led the laggards. European equities were higher, the EuroSTOXX added 1.77 points, or 0.47%, to 377.08, the German DAX rose 62.03 points, or 0.52%, to 12,032.30, and the London FTSE 100 gained 39.82 points, or 0.55%, to 7,313.36. In the currencies, the US dollar index eased 0.26% to 94.831, the EUR traded up to 1.1646, while USD/JPY was as low as 111.12. US treasury yields were mixed, the 2 year yield firmed 0.8 bps to 2.750% while the 10 year yield lost 1.1 bps to 2.960%. Oil prices were higher as the EIA reported US stockpiles fell by more than expected last week. Brent rose 0.3% to $79.70 while WTI gained 0.4% to $70.27. Base metals were sharply higher, with nickel (+3.2%) leading the way. In US economic data, the Labor Department reported that the producer price index fell 0.1% in August after remaining unchanged in July. The year on year reading was 2.8% while the core PPI year on year rate was 2.3%. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei is at +0.87%, the Shanghai composite is at +0.04%, the Hang Seng is at +1.27%, and the ASX S&P 200 is at -0.65%. Tonight we have weekly jobless claims, consumer price index, core CPI, and Federal budget numbers out of the US; and the important ECB interest rate decision in the Eurozone.

PRECIOUS Solid session for the precious as gold closes above the $1200 level. Gold opened at $1197 in Asia and was sold to the day’s low $1192 around lunchtime. The SGE premium eased slightly to $3-4 and we saw decent selling from China. London traded $1193-97 through the AM session in the absence of any real catalyst for a move either way. As the US/China trade talk headlines appeared in NY mid-morning USD/CNH promptly dropped from 6.87 to 6.83 and gold took off. The yellow metal gapped up to $1203 initially, then traded steadily to the session high $1208 over the next few hours. There was some late selling off the high which saw the market at $1205 by closing time. Silver printed a week high $14.27 during NY hours before a close in the black at $14.21. In the PGMs, platinum popped above $800 for the first time since last month and palladium closed ahead at $974. The Philadelphia gold and silver index added 3.46%. SPDR Gold Trust holdings were down 0.03% to 745.18 metric tonnes. In Asia today, gold is easing slightly as the USD finds broad interest. The metal opened at $1206.70 and was down around $1204 by the open in China. The SGE premium is slightly firmer at $4 over loco London, and the yellow metal is $1204.70 as I write. Silver printed a low of $14.19 earlier on but has recovered to the opening level at $14.25 as I write. Platinum has been the best performer in Asia today, the metal Is currently sitting at $803.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Monday 24 Sep 2018

 

MARKETS/MACRO The Markit U.S. services PMI print for September (provisional) indicated a softening across the services sector, sliding to 52.9 (exp: 55.0) from 54.8 previously. The print was the softest expansion since March 2017, however it is likely that the weakness was partially related to storm activity on the east coast of the country. The Markit U.S. manufacturing PMI print for September showed an improvement in business conditions, increasing to 55.6 (prev: 55.0) from 54.7 in August. The print was the highest reading since May and saw support from strong growth across output and new orders. Equities in the U.S. closed mixed on Friday, however the DJIA was able to print a second consecutive all-time high, gaining +0.32% to 26,743.50 points. The S&P 500 eased just -0.04% to 2,929.67 points on the back of heavy trade across technology (-0.34%) and financials (-0.37%), while the Nasdaq slumped -0.51% to 7,986.96 points. Over the week the DJIA jumped +2.3%, the S&P 500 gained +0.9% and the Nasdaq Composite eased -0.3%. The greenback had a positive session on Friday (DXY +0.33%) to claw back some of the recent weakness, notably gaining ground against the pound following comments from British Prime Minister Theresa May warning Brexit talks had stalled. Oil futures saw volatile trade on Friday, however ultimately ended higher ahead of the weekend meeting of major oil producers in Algiers. WTI ended +0.82% higher just underneath USD $71 per barrel, while Brent crude tacked on +0.1% to USD $78.80 per barrel. Equities in Europe posted strong gains on Friday, with financial and mining stocks supporting the broader market higher. The Stoxx Europe 600 added +0.43% to 384.29 points to book a sixth consecutive session gain, while the German Dax jumped +0.85% to 12,430.88 points. In the U.K. the FTSE 100 surged +1.67% to 7,490.23 points as the pound turned sharply offered following Brexit headlines.

 

PRECIOUS A disappointing session for bullion on Friday, breaking sharply underneath USD $1,200 and failing to recapture the figure into the close. A stronger greenback and a fresh record for the DJIA weighed upon the yellow metal in Europe / New York, reversing an otherwise robust Asian session that saw the metal to a USD $1,210.70 high. Demand out of China saw buoyant price action throughout Asian hours, with the on-shore premium pushing toward USD $5 as USD/China skewed to the down-side. The metal initially tests toward USD $1,200 in Europe on the back of euro and pound weakness, while sharply moving through the figure in early New York (10,000 lots through Comex in one minute) to a USD $1,192.45 low. Interest broadly around USD $1,192 - $1,194 restricted any further declines and the metal ended just underneath USD $1,200 to book a -0.7% fall. Silver briefly tested below USD $14.20 in New York, however sharply reversed the majority of the declines to limit the loss to just -0.15%. Platinum was 2 dragged lower with the remainder of the precious to decline -0.88%, while Palladium remain buoyant to outperform and end flat on the session. Bullion held a narrow range on Monday with a mild down-side skew, however volumes were hampered by holidays in both Japan and China. An early session bid tone to the greenback following the weekend break-down in talks between the U.S. and China put pressure on the yellow metal, unable to hold onto Friday’s closing level. The DXY edged around +0.1% higher over the session, while a lack of physical interest with Shanghai on leave was most likely the reason for the offered bias to gold. Bullion remains sensitive to dollar flows and the ratcheting up of tensions between the U.S. and China and the current Brexit impasse should continue to support the greenback over the near-term. Initial support for the metal is expected broadly around USD $1,192 - $1,194, with an extension toward USD $1,185 should this level fail. Once again, the metal sees USD $1,200 as the first level of resistance, with USD $1,210 - $1,215 the key to a sustained move higher. Following Friday’s relatively resilient price action, silver disappointed in Asian trade to test toward USD $14.20, sliding -0.7% to threaten a move underneath the USD $14.17 New York low. All eyes on USD $14.05 - $14.08 and USD $14 to restrict a move toward USD $13.60 - $13.70. Data releases today include Germany IFO survey results, U.S. Chicago Fed activity index and the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity print.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 18 Sep 2018

MARKETS/MACRO The main market drivers on Monday were headlines surrounding the trade war between the U.S. and China, with the latter potentially cancelling upcoming trade talks should President Trump go ahead with announcing further tariffs on USD $200 billion worth of Chinese imports. Investors traded cautiously ahead of an expected announcement, with technology including Apple and Amazon well offered on the back of the escalating tensions. The DJIA declined -0.35% to 26,062.12 points, while weakness across technology (-1.28%) and consumer discretionary (-1.27%) stocks weighed upon the S&P 500 to have the bourse off -0.56% to 2,888.80 points at the close. The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite bore the brunt of the weakness however, collapsing -1.43% to 7,895.792 points, marking the largest single-session fall since late July. Manufacturing activity in the New York region softened during August according to the latest Empire State index. The monthly print declined to 19.0 (exp: 23.0) from 25.6 the month prior, as new orders and shipments tracked heavily. The greenback reversed Friday’s gains on Monday on the back of the escalating trade concerns. The DXY index sunk -0.48% to lose notable ground against the euro (EUR/USD +0.54%) and the pound (GBP/USD +0.66%), while holding generally unchanged against the yen. Treasury yields edged higher once again on Monday, seeing the 10-year edge above 3% and the two-year edged just under 1bp higher to 2.786%. European equities ended mixed on Monday as ongoing trade concerns weighed upon investor appetite. The Stoxx Europe 600 edged +0.12% higher to 378.31 points, the German Dax eased -0.23% to 12,096.41 points, while in the U.K. the FTSE 100 slipped -0.03% to 7,302.10 points as the pound pushed higher on positive Brexit progress.

PRECIOUS Following Monday’s positive move back above the important USD $1,200 pivot point, gold slipped underneath the figure in early Asian trade following the announcement from President Trump of 10% in tariffs on a further USD $200 billion worth of Chinese imports. The headlines post U.S. equity market close saw the greenback open higher to weigh upon bullion, however supportive price action out of China (prem USD ~$6.50) saw the metal base around USD $1,197 to restrict further declines. Early afternoon headlines out of China; “China says cooperation is only right choice for China, U.S.” saw a reversal to the early session dollar strength into the Shanghai lunch break, however the yellow metal failed to recapture the USD $1,200 handle and spent the remainder of the afternoon holding toward USD $1,198. Heightened trade tensions between the U.S. and China should eventually become supportive to higher gold prices over the near-term and it is disappointing to once again see the metal under USD $1,200. Broad interest toward USD $1,193 remains supportive for bullion, however should the greenback firm further gold could extend through to USD $1,185. Resistance at USD $1,215 is the key for an extension to USD $1,230, with recent shorts likely to become nervous around these levels. Silver continues to see interest above USD $14 to restrict further tests underneath the figure, while platinum struggles to hold the key USD $800 pivot point and palladium tests offers around the 200 DMA.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Wed 12 Sep 2018

MARKETS/MACRO The main theme overnight was cautious optimism and higher much higher oil prices. U.S investors shrugged off the trade war tensions as major US stock markets rose, while elsewhere, Hurricane Florence could hit the United States east coast as early as Friday, which pushed up oil prices. U.S equities rose late in the session in line with positive U.S data and a strong tech sector, the Dow Jones accelerating +113.99 points (+0.44%) to 25,971.06, the S&P500 advancing +10.76 points (+0.37%) and the NASDAQ composite up +48.313 points (+0.61%) to 7,972.474. In Europe, equity markets were a little more subdued closing mildly softer on the day. The EuroFirst 300 index dipped -0.66 of a point (-0.04%) to 1,466.13 and the EuroStoxx 600 declined -0.20 of a point (-0.05%) to 375.31, while regionally the FTSE100 slid -0.08%, the DAX relinquished -0.13% and CAC40 rose +0.27%. The strength in yields continued with the U.S 2y gaining +3.3bp to a decade high of 2.74% and the 10y yield up +4.8bp to 2.98%. The German 10y Bund yield also ticked up +2.9bp to 0.43%. Crude oil prices surged as supply disruptions continued to mount - WTI rising +3.45% to $69.87. Hurricane Florence is threatening the U.S East Coast, with forecasters predicting it will gain strength before it hits landfall, potentially imperilling major oil pipelines. This helped drive gasoline prices nearly +3% higher also. Elsewhere, concerns about falling Iranian exports continue to rise, Iran resorting to storing oil on super tankers, with ship tracking data on Bloomberg showing a sharp rise in floating storage over the past month. Estimates of Iranian exports are now around 1.5mb/d, according to consensus surveys. The Dollar Index gained +0.1% to 95.25, USDJPY jumped +0.5% to 111.63 and EURUSD nudged higher by +0.1% to 1.1606.

On the data front, the number of job openings in the U.S rose to an all-time high of 6.939 million in July 2018 from an upwardly revised 6.822 million a month earlier, and way above market expectations of 6.68 million. The increase in openings was driven by a surge of vacancies in finance and insurance firms (+46k) and non-durable goods manufacturing (+32k), while there was a decline in retail trade (-85k), educational services (-34k), and federal government (-19k). Meanwhile, hiring increased to 5.679 million in July from 5.677 million in June. Across the pond, the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany rose by +3.1 points from the previous month to -10.6 in September 2018, beating market expectations of -14.0. It was the highest reading since May, as fears regarding the economic development have diminished somewhat, which may in part be attributable to the new trade agreement between the USA and Mexico. Meanwhile, the assessment of the current economic situation in the country increased by +3.4 points to 76.0 in September. UK unemployment held steady at 4% in the three months to July 2018, its jointlowest since 1975 and in line with market consensus. The number of unemployed declined by -55k from the February to April period while employment rose by +3k and the number of job vacancies hit a fresh record high. Meanwhile, annual wage growth picked up from a nine-month low as businesses found it harder to recruit staff.

PRECIOUS Gold and silver both had constructive bounces after hitting the lows during early NYK yesterday, the former managing to close just off the days high. Gold opened around $1195.50 and was once again under a bit of pressure for the first half of the day. The market dipped down to $1194 on the China open as Asian buying on the exchange was muted and not really providing anything in way of support. The SGE premium as a result slipped from the previous session, trading down to between USD $5.50-6.50/oz over the loco London price. There was some modest early demand from European traders in line with a firming EUR and softening dollar, the metal pushing as high as $1197.50 before easing from there. In the NY session it was all selling initially with the yellow metal retreating back below $1190 as the USD bounced back and commodities in general - with the exception of oil - were sold. Around the time the stellar ADP Employment figure was released, sentiment changed and some demand was seen across the precious. This continued for the remainder of the session, gold clawing its way to a fresh intra-day high of $1199.30 with 30 minutes to go and closing only slightly off that. Silver followed gold for the majority of the day, pushing through the previous low ($14.00) to touch its lowest point since January 2016. A number of stops were tripped on the break of $14.00 although it did manage to hold at $13.95 which was a little surprising. Once gold started to rebound silver also clawed back towards $14.15 and closed at that level. We remain range-bound for now across the metals with the ongoing trade tensions likely drivers of direction over the short term.

There was some profit taking around following the overnight rally during the early Asian hours this morning. This was compounded around the time that Shanghai came in, with China again showing little demand. After initially trading at $1198, gold meandered lower throughout the AM session, giving up some $5 to trade as low as $1193 right on the SGE close. The metal traded fairly flat throughout the lunch hours and since the re-open has exhibited a bit of an upswing, trading around $1194.50 as I write. Silver is currently a little softer on the day although has held $14.10 so far. PGM's are mostly flat or a touch softer so far. The USD is marginally stronger vs. majority of the G10 (JPY the exception), equities a touch lower with the Nikkei currently -0.4%, Hang Seng -0.15%, ASX200 -0.1% and the Shanghai Composite is bucking the trend up +0.25%. Ahead on the data calendar today we have EuroZone Industrial Production and U.S PPI, Mortgage Applications and Beige Book. 

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

 

DAILY REPORT : Friday 21 Sep 2018

 

MARKETS/MACRO US equities continued to rally on solid economic data, with both the Dow and S&P 500 posting record highs. The Dow added 251.22 points, or 0.95%, to 26,656.98, the S&P 500 gained 22.80 points, or 0.78%, to 2,930.75, while the Nasdaq rose 78.19 points, or 0.98%, to 8,028.23. Tech (+1.17%), consumer staples (+1.16%) and materials (+1.05%) led a near broad advance in the markets. European equities were higher, the EuroSTOXX advanced 2.65 points, or 0.70%, to 382.63, the German DAX rose 107.46 points, or 0.88%, to 12,326.48, and the London FTSE 100 put on 36.20 points, or 0.49%, to 7,367.32. In the currencies, the US dollar is trading broadly lower as investors fears around the China-US trade war start to ease. The US dollar index fell 0.7% to 93.898, the EUR climbed to 1.1783, while USD/JPY was as high as 112.57. US treasury yields were higher, the 2 year yield firmed 1.3 bps to 2.80% while the 10 year yield added 0.4 bps to 3.20%. Oil prices were lower as President Trump tweeted that OPEC needs to “get prices down now!” ahead of the weekends meeting in Algeria. Brent fell 1.4% to $78.60 while WTI sold off 1.3% to $70.77. Base metals were mostly higher, with zinc (+0.9%) leading the gains. In US economic data, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index rose to 22.9 in September from 11.9 in August, beating the economists forecast of a 19.6 reading. The National Association of Realtors announced existing home sales were unchanged at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.34 million in August. The Conference Board’s leading economic index rose 0.4% in August after a 0.6% increase in July, pointing to solid growth in the third quarter. Household debt rose by a seasonally adjusted 2.1% to $106.93 trillion in the second quarter. Initial jobless claims fell by 3,000 to 201,000 in the week ending September 15, this marks the lowest level since November 1969. Continuing jobless claims fell 55,000 to 1.65 million. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei is at +0.90%, the Shanghai composite is at +0.98%, the Hang Seng is at +0.93%, and the ASX S&P 200 is at +0.22%. Tonight we have Markit manufacturing PMI (flash) and Markit Services PMI (flash) out of both the US and the Eurozone.

 

PRECIOUS Gold and silver post modest gains on broad USD weakness in a range-bound session. Gold opened at $1203 in Asia and traded up to $1206 after China came in. The SGE premium eased to $4-5 which capped the market. The metal saw a sweep down to the opening levels as London came in, and was sold to the day’s low of $1201 during the AM session. Gold rebounded into the NY open as the greenback came under broad selling pressure, posting a session high $1207 in early trading. There was another dip 2 during the afternoon but the yellow metal recovered to close near the highs at $1206. Silver tested the previous session highs in early trading before being sold off. The grey metal recovered through NY hours to close in front at $14.27. Another strong session for the PGMs, palladium printed a high of $1054 while platinum reached $834. In Asia today, gold opened at $1206.70 and ticked up to a week high $1209.70 in early trading. The SGE premium was firmer at $6 over loco London. The yellow metal has been consolidating around $1208 through the afternoon and sits at $1208.80 as I write. Silver opened at $14.29 and is slowly grinding higher through the day, the grey metal is currently at $14.38. PGMs appear to be taking a breather after an impressive week, both platinum and palladium have traded sideways today.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Monday 17 Sep 2018

MARKETS/MACRO Retail sales in the U.S. inched higher during August, advancing just +0.1% MoM (exp: +0.4%) to mark the slowest pace in six months, however data for July did see an upwards revision to +0.7% from +0.5% previously. The closely watched ‘core’ retail sales also edged +0.1% MoM higher following an upwardly revised +0.8% increase in July (prev: +0.5%). Industrial production in the U.S. increased +0.4% MoM during August (exp: +0.3%) to match July’s upwardly revised print (prev: +0.1%). The University of Michigan measure of consumer sentiment in the U.S. spiked during September, hitting 100.8 (exp: 96.6) from 96.2 previously. The print was the second highest since 2004 and was underpinned by confidence in the job market and increased wage expectations. Equities in the U.S. ended little changed on Friday as participants considered the potential implications of further sanctions between the U.S. and China. The DJIA inched just +0.03% higher to 26,154.67 points, the S&P 500 also crept +0.03% higher to 2,904.98 points and the Nasdaq Composite slipped -0.05% to 8,010.043 points. On a weekly basis the DJIA added +0.9%, the S&P 500 gained +1.2% and the Nasdaq Composite jumped +1.4%. The greenback regained the ascendancy against majors on Friday, seeing the DXY +0.43% higher as the buck took back ground from the yuan and the euro. Treasury yields edged higher on Friday following mixed data releases, with the 10-year pushing briefly to 3% before ending 2.8bps higher at 2.992%, while the two-year gained 2.5bps to 2.781%. European markets ended higher on Friday, largely supported by softer regional currencies. The Stoxx Europe 600 added +0.35% to 377.85 points, the German Dax gained +0.57% to 12,124.33 points and the French CAC climbed +0.46% to 5,352.57 points. In the U.K. the FTSE 100 strengthened +0.31% to 7,304.04 points as the pound traded offered.

PRECIOUS A relatively muted session for the precious on Monday following Friday’s weakness, possibly seeing some slack in the market on account of the Japanese holiday and severe weather conditions in Hong Kong. The greenback held a mild offered bias throughout the session to underpin supportive price action to bullion, with interest out of China notably picking-up as the on-shore premium pushed back toward USD $6.50. We saw headlines surrounding potential fresh tariffs on China by the U.S., however at a reduced rate of 10%, although aside from weighing upon regional equities the news saw little change to the precious. Offers on the way to USD $1,197 kept a lid on gains in late afternoon trade, however pricing remains constructive and layered bids underneath USD $1,195 are evident. The most recent CFTC data shows an increase in positioning across all metals, with shorts tapering off somewhat to possibly indicate we are beginning to see a short-term bottom. Broad interest through USD $1,193 - $1,195 remains in place to restrict further declines, however a sharp test toward USD $1,185 wouldn’t be out of the question 2 before the metal moves to re-test resistance at USD $1,215. Silver remains buoyant above USD $14 and didn’t test the figure on Friday, while platinum tracks heavily underneath USD $800 after losing the figure on Friday and palladium is still unable to breach the 200 DMA.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 11 Sep 2018

MARKETS/MACRO U.S. stocks ended mixed on Monday, generally supported by a recovery to the tech sector to see both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite snap a 4-session losing streak. The DJIA eased -0.23% to 25,857.07 points, while the S&P 500 saw strength across utilities (+0.58%) and real estate (+0.54%) to end the session +0.19% higher at 2,877.13 points and the Nasdaq Composite gained +0.27% to 7,924.16 points. U.S. treasury yields traded mixed on Monday to take the curve toward the flattest level since 2007. The two-year yield added around 0.8bps to 2.714%, the highest level since mid-2008, while the 10-year yield eased 0.7bps to 2.937%. The greenback meanwhile tracked lower following Brexit headlines that an agreement may be reached in the coming weeks. The DXY index ended off -0.27% after booking notable declines against the British pound (GBP/USD +0.81%) and the euro (EUR/USD +0.39%), however commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar continue to struggle amid U.S. – China trade concerns. Oil futures traded mixed on Monday as U.S. prices suffered from demand concerns as a result of Hurricane Florence. WTI ended the session down -0.3% at USD $67.50 per barrel, while Brent crude tacked on USD +0.7% to USD $77.37 per barrel. European equity markets traded broadly higher on Monday, largely ignoring a stronger euro and Swedish political headlines. The Stoxx Europe 600 tacked on +0.47% to 375.51, the German Dax added +0.22% to 11,986.34 points and the French CAC closed +0.33% higher at 5,269.63 points. In the U.K. the FTSE 100 inched just +0.02% higher to 7,279.30 points as a stronger pound weighed upon the market.

PRECIOUS An anaemic session for gold during Asian trade today, held within a narrow range an unable to capitalise on a weaker greenback. Bullion held above USD $1,195 throughout early session pricing, however struggled to entice Chinese demand once Shanghai opened and eased into their lunch break as the metal held at around a USD $6 premium. Interest toward USD $1,193 kept price action relatively buoyant during the afternoon, however flows were lighter than we are used to seeing and it looks as though participants are treading water until the metal breaks outside of the recent range. The latest COTR data has shown a further increase in short position and this does increase the likelihood that we may see a short squeeze over the near-term should the metal make sustainable break above USD $1,200, with focus on the key resistance level through USD $1,215 - $1,220. Silver once again tested toward USD $14.10 during Asian trade today, however saw resting bids restrict a further test of the important USD $14 support. The grey metal has broken above USD $14.20 in recent sessions, although rallies are being sold into and thus far the metal hasn’t been able to extend away from USD $14 (gold/silver ration in focus). 2 Platinum tracked sideways today following the overnight squeeze through USD $800 and reversal (short dated borrowing seen overnight), while palladium was sold in New York on a test of the 200 DMA (again!) and held a narrow range in Asia today. Data releases today include U.K. employment data, German ZEW survey results, U.S. small business optimism, the U.S. JOLTS job openings and U.S. wholesale inventories.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 20 Sep 2018

MARKETS/MACRO Equities were on the rise overnight with treasury yields up a couple of basis points and the USD declining. The DJIA gained +158.80 points (+0.61%) to 26,405.76, the S&P500 tacked on +3.64 points (+0.13%) to 2,907.95, while the NASDAQ composite took a bit of a breather, down a marginal -6.069 points (-0.08%) to 7,950.038. European stocks also exhibited strength led by banking stocks, the EuroFirst 300 Index inclining +4.96 points (+0.33%) to 1,485.99 and the EuroStoxx 600 matching that, up +1.25 points on the day (+0.33%) to 379.98. Crude oil prices rose after data showed further falls in inventories, the WTI gaining +1.47% to $70.88 a barrel. U.S stockpiles fell -2.08 million barrels last week, according to EIA data, slightly less than the market was expecting. However, investors were buoyed by data showing that refiners utilisation rates were around 10% higher than this time last year, indicating that demand remains strong. The tightness in the global oil market and a wide spread between Brent-WTI (~$8.50 a barrel) also enticed the highest level of U.S exports since July at 2.37m million barrels per day. Brent crude prices were helped by reports that Iraq’s exports were weaker, dropping to 3.93 million barrels a day in the first half of September from 4.093 million barrels per day in August. The base metals sector was broadly higher, as investors took a ‘glass half full’ approach to the lower-than-expected 10% tariff on Chinese imports into the U.S. Investors appetite was also supported by a weaker USD in this space, LME copper gaining +0.6% to $6121 per tonne. In the G10 space, most of the focus was on $CAD last night after headlines broke that US-Canada trade talks were unlikely to materialise into an agreement this week, helping to send the pair briefly above 1.30 while Cable continues its recent advance, helped by a stronger than expected inflation print yesterday.

On the data front yesterday the U.S current account deficit narrowed to $101.5 billion or 2.0% of GDP from a downwardly revised $121.7 billion gap or 2.4% of GDP ($103.5 billion expected). The goods deficit decreased to $203.2 billion from $220.8 billion in the first quarter of 2018, as exports rose faster than imports and the services surplus increased to $69.3 billion from $66.8 billion. Still in the U.S, housing starts jumped +9.2% from a month earlier to an annualised rate of 1282k in August of 2018, recovering from a -0.3% drop in July and beating market expectations of a +5.8% advance. Starts increased in the South, the Midwest and the West and remained flat in the Northeast. In the UK CPI rose to an annual rate of 2.7% in August 2018 up from 2.5% in the previous month and comfortably above market expectations of 2.4%. It was the highest inflation read since February mainly boosted by rising prices of transport, recreation & culture and food & non-alcoholic beverages.

U.S. and Canadian negotiators facing a deadline at the end of the month are working long hours to keep Canada in a North American trade bloc. Canada's Minister of Foreign Affairs Chrystia Freeland resumed talks Wednesday with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. "Our negotiators have been really hard at it, including an all-night session last night that ended at 7 a.m." Freeland told reporters. Among other things, the negotiators are battling over Canada's high dairy tariffs and policies meant to keep the country's culture from being overwhelmed by U.S. movies and 2 television. Canada also wants to keep a dispute-resolution process that was part of NAFTA, the Trump administration however wants U.S. courts to have jurisdiction.

PRECIOUS Gold once again printed a higher peak than the previous session, despite relatively muted price action overall yesterday. We opened in Asia around $1198 and after spending a few hours around that level began to rise as we approached the Shanghai open. This was soon followed by the headline "CHINA PREMIER SAYS WON'T DEVALUE CURRENCY TO STIMULATE EXPORTS", which helped to improve the overall risk sentiment, sending USDCNH lower and gold higher through towards $1204. Throughout the European day the yellow metal chopped between $1202- 1204.50 on very light volumes, hitting the intra-day peak just as U.S traders came online at $1205.95. We did run into some selling pressure above $1205, particularly as it was around this time the USD began to rebound. Despite the selling though, the metal managed to hold above $1200 for the remainder of the session which was certainly positive, rounding the day out at $1204. It was generally real money and system accounts on the bid and producer accounts on the offer for most of the day. The PGM's were again the most interesting constituents within the precious complex yesterday. Palladium continued its solid form from the previous day, extending its rise through the 200 dma resistance ($988.50) and hitting a fresh cycle peak of $1043, taking the 2 day gain to an impressive +$50 (+5.15%). Platinum, although not to the same extent, has been robust, pushing through the 50 dma Tuesday ($808) and closing just off the intra-day highs yesterday at $823. Volumes have been noticeably higher over the past two days for both PGM's. Elsewhere, the World Gold Council said India should not alter their gold import import duties or or impose other curbs to support the Rupee. The council indicated towards the low current demand for gold during 2018 and said that gold is not the core of India's current account deficit problem.

Gold continued to grind higher in Asia today, in fairly uneventful trade despite some decent volume going through. The yellow metal opened around $1204 this morning and hovered around there for the opening few hours before the China came in. There was a brief rush of bids right on the open and spot gold as a result pushed through $1205 and continued up toward the overnight high ($1205.95). It pushed through there eventually and remains above that level as I write. Silver had a good run also, opening around $14.24 and pushing as high as $14.35 before easing a little into the AM session close. PGM's are quieter today, dipping initially on some initial profit taking, but then rallying to their respective highs following the Chinese open in line with a softer dollar. Ahead today look out for UK retail sales, Eurozone consumer confidence and U.S jobless claims and existing home sales.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

DAILY REPORT : Friday 14 Sep 2018

MARKETS/MACRO Consumer prices in the U.S. increased less than expected during August, rising +0.2% MoM (exp: +0.3%) to match a similar print in July. The monthly result was weighed down by declines to healthcare and apparel costs, seeing the annualised figure to +2.7% YoY (exp: +2.8%) from +2.9% previously. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the so called ‘core’ CPI edged up +0.1% MoM (exp: +0.2%) to take the annualised figure to +2.2% YoY from +2.4% previously. Initial jobless claims in the U.S. eased marginally during the week ended 8 September, slipping 1,000 to 204,000 (exp: 210,000). The print saw the four-week moving average decline 2,000 to 208,000, while the number of continuing claims fell 15,000 to 1.696 million (exp: 1.710 million) during the week ended 1 September. Consumer confidence in the U.S. increased for the first time in five weeks according to Bloomberg. The consumer comfort gauge ticked up to 59.0 from 58.0 previously, led higher by improved assessments of personal finances. Equities in the U.S. ended higher on Thursday as technology stocks, notably Apple (+2.42%), recovered from recent weakness. The DJIA notched a +0.57% gain to 26,145.99 points, while gains to technology (+1.15%) and healthcare (+1.14%) helped to see the S&P 500 +0.53% higher to 2,904.18. The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite benefited from strength across tech giants to jump +0.75% higher to 8,013.71 points. The greenback extended recent declines on Thursday following the inflation report, losing ground once again relative to the euro and the sterling (Brexit driven) as the DXY index fell -0.32%.

The European Central Bank kept interest rates on hold as expected and reiterated its position that this should continue until at least next summer, while beginning to further scale back its bond buying program next month and finish altogether in December. ECB President Draghi took a marginally more hawkish position at his press conference, and while maintaining a ‘broadly balanced’ risk outlook and noting risks from protectionism and emerging market turmoil have become more pronounced, he noted the central bank remains comfortable with ongoing and solid broad-based economic growth. Equities in Europe closed mixed on Thursday, softening from early session gains as the euro turned bid. The Stoxx Europe 600 declined -0.15% to 376.52 points, while the German Dax added +0.19% to 12,055.55 points and the French CAC eased -0.08% to 5,328.12 points. The Bank of England also left benchmark interest rates unchanged in-line with expectations, however highlighted that although the U.K. economy is broadly on track, Brexit remains a risk. The U.K. FTSE 100 posted a -0.43% fall to 7,281.57 points, weighed down by weakness across energy and tobacco stocks, in addition to a firmer pound.

PRECIOUS Bullion saw mixed trade on Thursday, reversing a test above USD $1,210 following comments from president Trump denying the U.S. and China were going to restart talks on trade. The yellow metal saw 2 constructive price action throughout Asian and European hours to consolidate the previous session move through USD $1,200, with profit taking (notably Chinese selling) well absorbed by a healthy supply of bids. The softer than expected U.S. CPI print provided a boost for the metal, breaking above the previous session high to touch USD $1,212.70, however the Trump denial hit market sentiment and gave the dollar a modest boost to reverse the CPI driven gains. Gold saw late session weakness test toward the important USD $1,200 support level, however once again saw healthy interest restrict further declines. With regards to ETF flows we saw 70k ounces of outflows on Thursday.

Asian trade on Friday saw interest in bullion continue to underpin robust price action, pulling away from USD $1,200 and spending the remainder of the session either side of USD $1,205. The greenback skewed mildly to the down-side throughout the session, however was largely unchanged against China as Shanghai continued to hold an on-shore premium around USD $4 - $5. We saw a mild bid tone in bullion during early afternoon trade driven by comments from Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe noting that he doesn’t think easing should go on forever, with USD/JPY marginally softer on the back of this. The near-term key for the metal remains supportive price action around USD $1,200, with a top-side break through USD $1,215 - $1,220 needed to instill confidence in participants and squeeze shorts. Silver has been testing resistance around USD $14.30 and a consolidated move through this level will open up targets at USD $14.50 and USD $14.70. Platinum has so far been able to hold USD $800 following the break on Wednesday and will look for this to continue, while palladium finds resistance around the 200DMA at USD $988 formidable for now. Data releases today include U.S. retail sales, U.S. import prices, U.S. industrial production and U.S. capacity utilisation.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Monday 10 Sep 2018

MARKETS/MACRO Jobs data out of the U.S on Friday exceeded expectations to show 201,000 payrolls added during August (exp: 190,000). There were downwards revisions to the last two months totalling 50,000, however the 12- month average held just underneath 200,000. The unemployment rate held at 3.9% during August (exp: 3.8%), while the broader underemployment rate, which takes into account discouraged workers eased to 7.4% from 7.5% previously. Average hourly earnings increased +0.4% MoM to see the annualised figure at +2.9% YoY (exp: +2.7%). Equity markets in the U.S. ended lower on Friday following comments from President Trump regarding a further USD $267 Billion in tariffs directed toward China. The DJIA ended - 0.31% lower at 25,916.54 points, sliding -0.2% on the week, while the S&P 500 declined -0.22% to 2,871.68 points, ending the week -1% down. The technology sell-off continued to weigh upon the Nasdaq Composite, seeing the bourse -0.25% down on Friday to 7,902.542 points and -2.6% softer over the week. The greenback received a boost following the U.S. wages growth on Friday, seeing the DXY index add +0.41% on the session. The buck made notable gains against the Australian dollar (AUD/USD -1.4%) as the U.S. – China trade war continues to weigh upon the commodity dependent currency.

PRECIOUS Continued dollar strength weighed upon bullion during Asian trade on Monday, with the metal unable to reclaim the USD $1,200 handle following Friday’s wage / payrolls driven weakness. The short-covering rally that drove price action higher last week looks to have been exhausted and we are now once again looking toward near-term weakness for bullion. A mild bid tone out of China supported price action during Shanghai trade, however the physical interest out of the far East wasn’t enough to counteract persistent dollar strength, notably against USD /China as CNY fixed around +0.3% higher than closing levels on Friday. The yellow metal extended to a USD $1,191.70 low during late afternoon trade and will look for support toward USD $1,190 to restrict further declines. The latest COTR data shows a further decrease in net positioning, largely driven by an increase in gross shorts, while gross longs were also reduced. Overall positioning is supportive for further short covering; however it is currently difficult to see a catalyst for a sustained move above USD $1,200, with further extension through USD $1,215 the key for near to medium term reversal in trend. Silver remains resilient above USD $14 and will need to hold the figure to restrict a test toward USD $13.70 - $13.80, while platinum continues to trade between USD $750 - $800 and palladium remains in backwardation to underpin interest in the metal. Data today includes U.K. manufacturing / industrial production and U.S. consumer credit.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.