DAILY REPORT : Friday 20 Oct 2017

MACRO: Reports out of the US suggest Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell is the front-runner to become chair of the US central bank.The report followed President Trump's meetings with the five finalists for the position, including current Fed chair Janet Yellen, on Thursday. Powell is the candidate viewed as most similar to Yellen and would not be expected to greatly alter the Fed's current approach to monetary policy. US equities were mixed following a late rally in the Dow and S&P 500 on the Fed news, with both inching up to a record close. The Dow edged higher 5.44 points, or 0.02%, to 23,163.04; the S&P 500 crept up 0.84 points, or 0.03% to 2,562.10, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq eased 19.15 points, or 0.29%, to 6,605.07. There wins for utilities (+1.01%) and healthcare (+0.61%), while consumer staples (-0.61%) and tech (-0.35%) led the losses. European shares were lower as tensions escalate in Spain, the EuroSTOXX lost 2.45 points, or 0.63%, to 389.11, the German DAX fell 52.93 points, or 0.41%, to 12,990.10, and the London FTSE 100 retreated 19.83 points, or 0.26%, to 7,523.04. In currency majors, the US dollar index declined 0.09% to 93.276, the EUR traded up to 1.1857 while USD/JPY traded down to 112.35. US treasury yields were lower, the 2 year yield eased 2.64 bps to 1.5365% and the 10 year yield erased 3.05 bps to 2.3160%. In commodities news, oil prices were lower following 4 consecutive sessions of gains, Brent fell 1.62% to $57.21 while WTI lost 1.29% to $51.37. Base metals were mixed, with aluminium (+1.51%) the best performer. In US economic data, the Philly Fed index rose to 27.9 in October from 23.8 in September. The increase was largely due to a spike in the number of employees index, which jumped to 30.6 in October from 6.6 in September. Initial jobless claims decreased by 22k to 222k in the week ending October 14, the lowest figure since March 1973. Continuing jobless claims fell by 16k to 1.89M, Leading economic fell 0.2% in September following a 0.4% rise in October. This marks the first recorded monthly decline in 12 months and is at least partially due to the impact of the recent hurricanes. In news out of Asia, the Chinese economy grew 6.8% (YoY) in the third quarter of 2017, following a 6.9% reading in each of the previous two quarters. The figure is in line with economists expectations and represents the weakest rate of expansion since the fourth quarter of 2016. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei sits at -0.03%, the Shanghai composite is at +0.05%, the Hang Seng at +0.98%, and the ASX S&P 200 at +0.21%. Tonight we have existing home sales out of the US and PPI data out of Germany.

PRECIOUS: A rally for the precious overnight as the US dollar softened. Gold opened at $1280 in Asia and dipped to the days low of $1277 as the opening SGE premium at $10 failed to spark any buying. USD/JPY dropped in the Asian PM and gold bounced quickly, reaching $1280 on the London open and $1285 shortly after. Trade during NY hours was volatile as the greenback fluctuated, but the yellow metal held on to print the days high of $1290 just before the close. Silver opened right on the $17 level and drifted down to the low of $16.90 during Asian hours. The grey metal caught a bid as London came in to trade back above $17 and surged to a session high $17.25 in NY before the close. In the PGMs, palladium survived some whippy NY trading to close all but flat while platinum slid $10 to finish at $920. The Philadelphia gold and silver index added 0.54%. SPDR Gold Trust holdings were unchanged at 853.13 metric tonnes. In todays trading, gold was testing the $1290 level through the AM before a steep slide to $1285 as USD/JPY jumped above 113. The SGE premium was lower at $7 over loco London. The market has drifted lower through the afternoon to reach the days low of $1281.90, the yellow metal is at $1283.30 as I write. Silver has drifted lower off the open before stabilising around $17.15, the grey metal sits at $17.16 as I write. Platinum is flat while Palladium grinds higher. Gold should see support at the 100 dma at $1275 which has held over the previous two sessions, on the upside we can expect resistance at yesterdays high of $1290 followed by the $1300 psychological level.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Monday 16 Oct 2017

MACRO: Inflation figures out of the U.S. on Friday showed the consumer price index increased +0.5% MoM during September, marking the highest print in eight months, however falling short of analysts expectations centred around +0.6%. Underpinning the headline figure was further strength across energy prices, however this temporary surge was reported to have eased toward the end of the month as refineries resumed normal operation. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, prices edged just +0.1% (exp: +0.2%) from +0.2% the month prior. On an annualised basis CPI popped to +2.2% YoY (exp: +2.3%) from +1.9% previously, however core CPI held at +1.7% YoY (exp: +1.8%). Retail Sales in the U.S. rebounded during September, increasing +1.6% MoM (exp: +1.7%) from a -0.1% read previously. The September print was the strongest monthly gain in over two years, with sales of building materials, autos and gasoline elevated following recent storm activity. Excluding auto, gas, building materials and food (core sales), sales added +0.4% (exp: +0.4%) to follow a flat read previously, indicating the drag on the economy following the recent storm activity will likely be short-lived and modest. U.S. equity markets edged higher on Friday following the mixed data releases, seeing the Nasdaq Composite (+0.22%) to a fresh all-time closing high of 6,605.801 points, while both the DJIA and the S&P 500 hit intra-session record high prints before pulling back late in trade. The DJIA finished +0.13% higher at 22,871.72 points, while the S&P 500 ended with a +0.09% gain at 2,553.17 as technology (+0.52%) led the major components higher. European markets pushed higher on Friday, buoyed by strength across mining shares and news that Bayer AG had reached a deal to sell significant parts of its seed and herbicide business. The Stoxx Europe 600 ended +0.3% higher to build upon recent gains, while the German Dax (+0.1%) booked a fresh record close of 12,991.87 points, the sixth consecutive weekly gain. In the U.K. on Friday, headlines regarding a smoother Brexit than anticipated buoyed the pound and saw the FTSE 100 end -0.3% lower at 7,535.44 points.

PRECIOUS: Friday's softer than anticipated U.S. inflation data provided the stimulus for a leg higher for bullion, importantly breaking above the psychological USD $1,300 level and holding the figure into the close. Pre-data weakness tested toward support around USD $1,290, however the weakness was short lived as bullion made light work of USD $1,300 and continued to strengthen throughout the U.S. session. Recent CFTC positioning data has shown a net increase in specs, predominately a result of short covering following the recent price action. Asian trade on Monday was a relatively muted affair, experiencing further Chinese physical interest, however bids were significantly lighter with gold trading above USD $1,300. The key for bullion over the short term will be a test of the USD $1,320 print from mid September, while targets beyond this extend to USD $1,335 and USD $1,350. With regards to downside support, USD $1,300 has now become a key pivot point, while interest toward USD $1,295 - $1,290 should restrict further declines. Silver continues push higher and is likely to follow the industrial metals with copper breaking USD $7,000 today, while palladium shows no signs of slowing following a break through USD $1,000 late in Asia today. Data releases today include U.S. empire manufacturing and the monthly budget statement.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 10 Oct 2017

MACRO: Equity markets in the U.S. eased on Monday, with the Nasdaq Composite ending a nine session winning streak amid thin Columbus Day trade. The DJIA slipped from an early intra-session record high print of 22,803.37 points to end -0.06% lower at 22,761.07 points, while the S&P 500 edged -0.18% lower to 2,544.73 points as healthcare (-0.67%) and financials (-0.37%) lagged. The Nasdaq Composite followed the DJIA higher in early session trade to touch a fresh all-time high of 6,599.34, however saw late session weakness to book a -0.16% decline to 6,579.731 points. Oil futures edged higher on Monday following remarks from Mohammad Barkindo, secretary-general of OPEC on Sunday indicating additional measures may be required in 2018 to continue the global oil market re-balancing. WTI added +0.65% to USD $49.58 per barrel and Brent crude survived a test of USD $55 per barrel to end +0.3% higher at USD $55.67 per barrel. European equities recovered from recent declines during Monday's trade, supported by a turnaround to Spanish stocks and positive data out of Germany. The Stoxx Europe 600 posted a gain of +0.19% as the Spanish IBEX 35 rebounded +0.50%, while the German Dax ended +0.16% higher as industrial production in Europe's engine room surged +2.6% MoM (exp: +0.9%) during August and +4.7% YoY (exp: +2.9%). Equities in the U.K. slipped on Monday as the pound regained ground and miners eased. The U.K. FTSE 100 ended the session -0.20% lower, with miners sold following disappointing services sector data out of China.

PRECIOUS: The return of Chinese demand following Golden Week and an escalation of tensions between the U.S. and North Korea underpinned a leg higher for gold on Monday. With trade thin due to the Columbus Day holiday in the U.S., the majority of price action was reserved for Asia, as bullion pushed above resistance at USD $1,280 to reach a USD $1,285.25 session high. European and U.S. names generally faded the Asian rally within a tight range, however a quiet session for the greenback saw the initial Asian resistance level of USD $1,280 turn to a support and restrict any further declines. We saw further weakness in USD/China (CNY & CNH) today, with USD/CNH falling underneath 6.60 (opening level around 6.615) and USD/CNY to a 6.5881 low (prev close around 6.6225). The currency moves saw the on-shore premium relative to loco London gold add further gains, increasing toward USD $14 from around USD $10 on Monday to buoy spot demand to a USD $1,288.10 high. The increased Chinese interest reversed early session weakness to bullion, with the metal running into USD/JPY headwinds pre-Shanghai as the pair pushed higher on the Japanese open with Tokyo retuning from Monday's holiday. The key levels to watch for bullion are support around the USD $1,280 pivot point, with USD $1,270 below this, while broader weakness could extend to Friday's USD $1,260 low. Top-side targets extend to USD $1,288 - $1,290 (tested during Asian trade today) and beyond this USD $1,296 - $1,300. Regional markets in Asia today (4pm Sydney time) sees the Nikkei +0.42% higher, the Hang Seng +0.10% higher, while the Shanghai Composite sits -0.33% down. Meanwhile the greenback is recovering following early session declines and now sits -0.22% down from opening levels. Data releases today includes Industrial & Manufacturing production out of France and the U.K., while we also see the U.K. trade balance and U.S. small business optimism.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 19 Oct 2017

MARKETS/MACRO: The major U.S equity indices hit fresh intra-day records and the Dow traded above 23,000 Wednesday as U.S. stocks gained momentum propelled by the latest round of corporate earnings. Comment's from U.S treasury secretary Mnuchin that the tax reform bill will be ready for Trump's signature in December also buoyed stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose +160.16 points, or +0.7%, to 23,157.60, the S&P500 rallied +1.90 points, or +0.07%, to 2,561.26 and the NASDAQ inched up +0.563 of a point, or 0.01%, to 6,624.22. Financials (+0.58%) were the best performers while the Energy sector lagged (-0.73%). European equities were boosted by falls in the EUR and the GBP as investors monitored the earnings and economic data. The EuroFirst 300 Index jumped +4.61 points, or +0.3% to 1,539.83 and the Euro Stoxx 600 rose a similar +1.12 points, or +0.29% to 391.56. Regionally the DAX rose +0.37%, FTSE100 +0.36% and CAC40 +0.42%. Crude oil prices remained underpinned by geopolitical risks, despite concern that inventories in the US may not fall as much as expected, WTI Crude rose +$0.12, or +0.23%, to US$52.00 a barrel. IEA data showed crude oil inventories dropped 5.73 million barrels to 456.5 million barrels and the recent hurricanes had taken their toll on oil production, which was down over 1 million b/d to 8.4 million b/d. Despite this, the market remains fixated on events in Iraq. Elsewhere, the USD traded more balanced, the dollar index treading water down -0.09% to 93.399. EURUSD gained ground breaking the key 1.1780 resistance level, while USDJPY and XXXJPY surged seemingly driven by the US curve bear steepening. U.S treasuries slid, the 10y yield up +3.77bps to 2.3375% and the US 2y firmer by +1.66bps to 1.5629%.

On the data front, U.S. housing starts fell -4.7% in September (-0.4% expected) to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.127 million. Single-family starts declined -15.3% in the south, driven almost exclusively by the effects of hurricanes Irma and Harvey, which caused builders to delay beginning new projects and made labour and building material significantly more expensive. It is important to note though that housing starts data are volatile from month to month and can be subject to large revisions. Looking beyond monthly volatility, starts in the first nine months of the year were up +3.1% from the same period in 2016. Still in the U.S, the Fed Beige book showed that the pace of growth amongst it's 12 districts ranged from modest to moderate, with the hurricanes impacting the southern districts. Dallas experienced an increase in auto sales because of storm damaged vehicles and Richmond saw heightened manufacturing prices, particularly some raw materials. The Atlanta district reported hurricane related effects on its energy, agriculture and tourism sectors. Overall inflation remained modest since the Fed’s last report, matching other recent sluggish price change readings. On the sector-level, transportation, energy and construction materials prices rose, though this would likely be due to the hurricane activity.

PRECIOUS: The precious complex remained under pressure yesterday as international equities and the USD continued to climb and equities softened. Gold began the day on a semi-positive note with some light Japanese and SE Asian based demand lifting the market a few dollars prior to China opening. Chinese banks were on the bid in early SGE trade, which pushed the premium out to the right to around a $10 premium. This influenced spot gold, which marched up to the highs of the day at $1288.90. After an hour or so of trade however, the banks demand was exhausted and the yellow metal made a very slow retreat, meandering lower throughout the Asian afternoon back below $1285. The strength in equities kept a lid on the precious metals with any small jump met with firm selling on Ecomex. The gold continued steadily lower throughout the European day posting the intra-day low right before NY opened for trade ($1277.60). The metal quickly bounced on the open back toward $1283.50 and then traded a very narrow and dull range of $1280-83 into the close. Enthusiasm for gold has certainly been dented following it's failure above the $1300 mark, and longs patience is likely to be tested further into the end of the week. Key downside levels to look out for now are $1275.50 (100 dma), $1260.50 (6 Oct low pivot) and then $1257.00 (200 dma). To the topside $1297-1305 now looks a fairly heavy barrier. Elsewhere, palladium had a terrible session yesterday, down some -3.7% at one stage from the Asia highs and closing about -2.8% lower on the day. The $975 support was tested once during the NYK session and held but a lack of liquidity around there on the second test saw it quickly drop through and down toward $955. There was a modest recovery into the close finishing up around $960. Interesting price action for the metal, with it seeming like the fall was more just a lack of liquidity than any large scale selling. It was also good to see some lending go through in Pd, although it had little effect on the forward rates overall which still remaining in heavy backwardation.

In Asia this morning gold remained fairly flat initially with very little in the way of buying going through, which was interesting given we were trading lower than the previous day. There was also very little volume going through which just prompted the metal to cruise between a very narrow $1280.50-1282.00 range into the China open. Shanghai opened and spot edged a dollar or so to the days highs, yet demand on the SGE was minimal. The premium on the exchange had also fallen back below $10 and eased further over the opening 30 minutes towards $8 over Loco London. This put pressure on the spot price which fell through $1280 and continued to push below the overnight low at $1277.60. We briefly touched $1276.50, before stabilising around $1277-78 over the afternoon. Volumes remained fairly light and price action slowed from then on. This was the case across silver and the PGM's too. China released a host of data around the middle of the session that came mostly in line with forecasts and had a minimal impact on markets. 3Q GDP YoY came in as expected at +6.8% (+6.9% prior), Retail sales YoY was increased by +10.3% (10.2% expected, +10.1% prior), Industrial production YoY rose +6.6% (+6.5% expected, +6.0% prior) and fixed assets fell to +7.5% (7.7% expected, +7.8% prior). The dollar remained flat against the majors and equities were mixed, Shanghai Composite at time of writing sitting at -0.4%, Nikkei +0.65%, Hang Seng flat and ASX200 +0.15%. Crude is off a touch down -$0.05 or -0.15% to $51.96 currently. Looking ahead at today's data, watch out for U.S jobless claims and Philly Fed Business Outlook.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Friday 13 Oct 2017

MACRO: In us economic data, the producer price index rose 0.4% in September following a 0.2% increase in August. The rise saw the yearly rate of wholesale inflation pushed to 2.6%, the highest level since February 2012. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2%. The increase can be largely attributed to a rise in gasoline prices as a result of Hurricane Harvey. Initial jobless claims decreased by 15k to 243k in the week ending Ocober 7, continuing jobless claims fell to 1.89M, the lowest level in 44 years. US equities finished lower despite the three major bourses all reaching intra-day records. The retreat came as several of the top financial companies, including Citigroup (-3.5%) and JP Morgan (-0.88%), released third quarter earnings data. The Dow lost 31.88 points, or 0.14%, to 22,841.01; the S&P 500 fell 6.46 points, or 0.25% to 2,548.78, and the Nasdaq eased 12.04 points, or 0.18%, to 6,591.51. There were wins for REIT's (+0.69%) and industrials (+0.52%), while telecoms (-3.54%) and financials (-0.72%) led the losses. European shares edged higher as Brexit negotiations stall, the EuroSTOXX added 0.13 points, or 0.03%, to 391.03, the German DAX crept up 12.21 points, or 0.09%, to 12,982.89, and the London FTSE 100 gained 22.43 points, or 0.30%, to 7,556.24. In the currencies, the US dollar index inched up 0.07% to 93.081, the EUR traded down to 1.1832, while USD/JPY traded as high as 112.50. US treasury yields were lower, the 2 year yield eased 0.59 bps to 1.5127% and the 10 year yield erased 3.04 bps to 2.3177%. In commodities news, oil prices were lower after the IEA reported a monthly rise in global crude supplies, Brent fell 1.11% to $56.31 while WTI clipped 1.29% to $50.64. Base metals were broadly higher, with nickel (+2.33%) leading the charge. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei sits at +1.10%, the Shanghai composite is at +0.15%, the Hang Seng at +0.03%, and the ASX S&P 200 at +0.53%. Tonight we have CPI, retail sales, consumer sentiment, and business inventories out of the US; and inflation data out of Germany.

PRECIOUS: Gold consolidated above the $1290 level in what was a range-bound session for the precious as investors wait for tonight's CPI figures. Gold opened at $1291 in Asia and quickly traded through the previous session high of $1293, the SGE premium pulled back to $9-10 which slowed the buying interest out of China, however the sliding USD/JPY helped the market reach the high at $1297 during the London AM session. The yellow metal retraced to $1289 in early NY trading as the core PPI and jobs data came out stronger than expected, but found enough support to grind higher to a close at $1293. Silver remained range-bound for the day, the grey metal closed all but flat at $17.16. Palladium outperformed for the second day running, surging $30 off the low to a high of $985. The rise continues an impressive week in which the XPD has climbed a remarkable 7% on the back of the forward market squeeze, the Pd-Pt spread is now at a 16 year high +$40. The Philadelphia gold and silver index slipped 0.02%. The SPDR Gold Trust holdings remained unchanged at 858.45 metric tonnes. As expected todays trading in Asia has been fairly quiet ahead of tonight's US CPI release, gold picked up a few dollars to reach a high of $1296.90 as the dollar eases against the yen. The SGE premium was around $10-11 over loco London, and the yellow metal is at $1296.90 as I write. Silver opened at $17.22 and is at $17.27 as I write. Palladium made its way back to yesterdays highs and is sitting at $980. Gold should find support at the week's low of $1285 and below that the 100 dma at $1274, on the upside a close above the psychological $1300 level would be required for the yellow metal to make a push higher.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Monday 9 Oct 2017

MACRO: Jobs figures out of the U.S. on Friday showed a decline of 33,000 payrolls during September (exp: +80,000), to mark the first negative print since 2010. Recent storm activity in Texas and Florida is reportedly behind the fall, with as many as 1.5 million people temporarily unable to get to work. The restaurant industry was the main drag on the headline print, declining by 105,000 jobs, while the absence of these lower paid employees was likely responsible for the +0.5% MoM earnings increase (exp: +0.3%) to see the annualised figure to +2.9%. Previous prints saw revisions as August ticked higher to 169,000 from 156,000 previously, while July eased to 138,000 from 189,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate declined to 4.2% (exp: 4.4%) from 4.4% previously and the broader 'U-6' measure of unemployment and underemployment, which includes those who have stopped looking and those in part-time jobs who want full-time positions, fell to 8.3% from 8.6% previously. U.S. equity markets ended generally lower on Friday following the soft jobs data, however recovered late in trade to end the week higher. The DJIA ended in the red by the narrowest of margins, slipping just -0.01% to 22,773.67 points, while the S&P 500 ended -0.11% down at 2,549.33 and the Nasdaq bucked the trend to end +0.07% higher. On a weekly basis the DJIA added +1.7%, the S&P 500 gained +1.2% and the Nasdaq tacked on +1.5%. Treasury yields spiked higher following the jobs data before settling off the high marks, seeing the two-year end around 1.51% after trading above 1.52% for the first time in a decade. The greenback also received a boost following the payrolls figure, however pared gains to end modestly lower against majors as the DXY eased around -0.2%. European markets traded under pressure on Friday as participants kept an eye on events in Spain and the euro strengthened. The Stoxx Europe 600 posted a -0.40% decline, while the German Dax eased -0.09% as factory orders rebounded +3.6% MoM during August from an upwardly revised -0.4% fall in July (prev: -0.7%). The U.K. FTSE 100 ended trade +0.2% higher after seeing underlying support from a softer sterling on concerns that the U.K. may be headed for an early general election.

PRECIOUS: Bullion saw weakness around the U.S. payrolls print on Friday, however recovered sharply following reports out of Russia stating that North Korea is preparing to test a long range missile that has the potential to reach the U.S. West Coast. The report, from Russian lawmaker Anton Morozov who had recently returned from a visit to Pyongyang, saw the metal turn higher from a USD $1,260.80 low in-line USD weakness and and softening treasury yields. Following the recent weakness, the latest CFTC data showed gold positioning at the least bullish level in close to two months as longs were trimmed. Asian trade on Monday saw the return of China following their Golden Week celebrations, while Japan took leave. Interest out of the far East saw bullion off the session low following muted early demand and toward USD $1,280 in early Shanghai trade. The on-shore premium pushed toward USD $10 on the back of USD/China weakness and continued underlying physical demand kept price action buoyant throughout the afternoon. The concern for bullion will be the strengthening USD with the Fed funds futures now pricing in an 80% chance of a December interest rate increase. Columbus Day sees the U.S. out today, which is likely to keep volatility in-check, while we expect to see support leading into the October 10 anniversary of the founding of the ruling Korean Workers Party, with many fearing that the hermit state may use this day to carry out a further act of provocation. The key levels to watch for bullion are support toward USD $1,270, with potentially broader weakness extending to Friday's USD $1,260 low. Top-side targets extend to USD $1,288 - $1,290 and beyond this USD $1,296 - $1,300.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Wed 18 Oct 2017

MACRO: Import prices in the U.S. pushed higher during the month of September, adding +0.7% MoM (exp: +0.6%) to mark the largest gain in over twelve months. Fuel prices and industrial supplies led the headline figure higher, while prices excluding fuel added +0.3% MoM (exp: +0.2%) from +0.3% previously. On an annualised basis prices gained +2.7% YoY (exp: +2.6%) from an annualised +2.1% the month prior. Export prices increased +0.8% MoM (exp: +0.5%) from +0.7% previously to see the annualised figure at +2.9% from +2.4% previously. Industrial production in the U.S. rebounded during September, increasing +0.3% MoM (exp: +0.3%) from an upwardly revised -0.7% the month prior (prev: -0.9%). Factory output gained +0.1%, mining increased +0.4% and utilities jumped +1.5%. Meanwhile capacity utilisation inched higher to 76.0% (exp: 76.2%) from 75.8% previously. U.S. equities finished generally higher on Tuesday, seeing the DJIA end at a record closing level and break above 23,000 points for the first time, while the S&P 500 also posted a record close. The DJIA ended +0.18% higher at 22,997.44 points after touching an intra-session record of 23,002.20 points, while strength across healthcare (+1.31%) following a number of earnings results saw the S&P 500 +0.07% higher to 2,559.36 points. The Nasdaq Composite meanwhile eased by the narrowest of margins, sliding just -0.01% lower to 6,623.657 points. Markets across Europe eased on Tuesday following mixed earnings releases and concerns over political developments in Spain. The Stoxx Europe 600 closed -0.25% lower at 390.44 points, while the German Dax dipped -0.07% following softer than expected ZEW survey results. In the U.K the FTSE 100 posted a -0.14% decline as stronger than expected inflation data strengthened the case for an interest rate increase by the Bank of England.

PRECIOUS: Bullion continued to trade heavily on Tuesday, seeing consistent offers drag the metal below USD $1,290 during European trade, while further dollar strength in early New York hours saw gold test the USD $1,280 support as headlines regarding the next Federal Reserve chair hit the wires (notably Hawkish candidate John Taylor) . Late session developments saw both Canada and Mexico reject the U.S. NAFTA proposals to weigh upon the greenback throughout afternoon pricing, providing a brief period of respite for gold as the metal climbed back above USD $1,285 to end around -0.5% down on the session. The yellow metal saw modest support around the Asian open on Wednesday, with the greenback continuing to trade under pressure, while Chinese interest re-emerged to see gold to a USD $1,288.90 high in early Shanghai trade (on-shore premium holding around USD $10). The bid tone was however short-lived, with the dollar regaining the ascendancy in afternoon flows, particularly against the Yen to see the pair hold support around 112.15 and test toward 112.50 into European hours. Bullion suffered as a result of the resurgent greenback, with early European offers testing support at USD $1,285 and making a further leg below the figure to threaten a further test of USD $1,280. For now the USD $1,280 support remains intact, however further weakness may soon see the 100 DMA at USD $1,275 tested, while support below this sits broadly between the early October low of USD $1,260 and the 200 DMA at USD $1,257. Silver continues to be drawn toward the key pivot point of USD $17 as gold weakens, while palladium continues to see tightness in the forward market to underpin demand and is likely to retest USD $1,000 over the short-term. Data releases today include U.K. employment data and U.S. housing starts / building permits.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 12 Oct 2017

MACRO: The minutes from the September FOMC meeting released on Wednesday discussed the short-term effects of recent weather activity in the U.S., with members suggesting these events would change little with regards to near-term economic activity and inflation. With regards to inflation, there were discussions on both downside and upside risks over the medium-term, while the statement language was altered to describe inflation expectations as edging higher rather than increasing as noted in the July minutes. That being said, it is expected that inflation will reach the committee's longer-run objective by 2019. Growth outlook was generally unchanged, with economic activity described as "rising moderately", job gains were referred to as "solid" and it was noted the unemployment rate remained low. Many participants believe a further interest rate increase this year to be warranted "if the medium term outlook remained broadly unchanged.", however some did strike a more dovish tone and noted that a further hike this year would be dependant upon data releases that increased their confidence that inflation was moving toward the target. U.S. equity markets pushed higher late in trade following the minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting, with some committee members expressing concern as to whether inflation was on track to meet the Fed's target. The DJIA added +0.18% to end at a fresh all-time record of 22,872.89 points, while gains across realestate (+0.54%) and technology (+0.47%) saw the S&P 500 also +0.18% higher to a fresh record close at 2,555.24 points. The Nasdaq Composite meanwhile jumped +0.25% to notch a fresh all time closing high of its own at 6,603.548 points. Crude prices pushed higher on Wednesday following an OPEC report raising global demand for this year and 2018, however gains were tempered somewhat by reports output by member countries increased during September. WTI added around +0.8% to end the session at USD $51.30 per barrel, while Brent crude climbed +0.6% to USD $56.94 per barrel. The greenback experienced weakness against majors on Wednesday, sliding lower during U.S. hours to see the DXY post a -0.3% decline as a number of FOMC members expressed concern over inflation. European equities ended mixed on Wednesday, with the Spanish IBEX 35 (+1.34%) leading regionals following Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont announcing, although he intended to declare independence, he was suspending the secession process to allow negotiations with Madrid. The German Dax closed +0.17% higher and the Stoxx Europe 600 ended flat. In the U.K. the FTSE 100 held around all-time high levels, however lacked the impetus required for a fresh move higher and ended the session just -0.06% down.

PRECIOUS: Bullion saw mixed trade on Wednesday, however ultimately ended the session higher following the release of the mildly dovish FOMC minutes. Gold held a relatively narrow range throughout the session, unable to make a consolidated break above USD $1,290, however never trading too far off the figure as a softening USD provided an underlying level of support. Initial offers once New York opened saw the session low of USD $1,284.80 printed, however interest around this level kept price action buoyant into the FOMC minutes release, while the dovish skew regarding inflation expectations weighed upon the dollar to see gold well bid into the close. Asian trade today saw the bid tone continue for bullion, as the USD extended declines to see the yellow metal break through the recent up-trend cycle highs. Offers around the overnight high print kept the early session rally in check, however a Shanghai on-shore premium of around USD $10 continued to underpin physical demand out of the Far East. The metal failed to give up any gains during the Chinese lunch break and traded to a session high of USD $1,296.30 as European names filtered in. Initial support for the metal sits around Wednesday's low print of USD $1,285 and below this the 100 DMA at USD $1,275, while topside targets are clustered between USD $1,297 - $1,300. Although it seems likely that the FOMC will increase U.S. rates in December, the upcoming U.S. inflation data will be closely watched following comments released in the minutes on Wednesday, with softer than expected data expected to provide bullion with impetus for a sustained push back above USD $1,300. With regards to the remainder of the precious, palladium was the standout performer on Wednesday, with rumors of sponge demand driving tightness and specs piling in behind this to see the metal add over +2%. We expect this tightness to continue and underpin further strength for the white metal. Data releases today include French CPI, Eurozone industrial production, U.S. PPI, U.S. initial jobless claims and U.S. Bloomberg consumer confidence.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Friday 6 Oct 2017

MACRO: The US House of Representatives passed a 2018 budget resolution, a step toward implementation of the Republican's planned tax overhaul. The Republicans plan to pass their tax plan through a budget reconciliation, which requires just a simple majority in the Senate. In US economic data released overnight, the US trade deficit fell 2.7% to $42.4 billion in August from $43.6 billion in July. A 0.4% increase in exports to $195.3 billion, largely attributed to higher drugs, semiconductors, and telecommunications equipment, was the driver behind the widening deficit. Imports saw a modest decrease of 0.1% to $237.7 billion. Factory orders rose 1.2% in August following the heavy 3.3% decline in July. The increase in durable goods orders for August was revised upwards to 2%, while orders for non-defense capital goods, excluding aircraft, increased 1.1%. Initial jobless claims decreased by 12k to 260k in the week ending September 30, continuing jobless claims fell to 1.94M. US equities extended their winning streak as all three major bourses closed at record levels. The Dow added 114.16 points, or 0.50%, to 22,775.80; the S&P 500 rose 13.75 points, or 0.54% to 2,551.49, and the Nasdaq put on 50.73 points, or 0.78%, to 6,585.356. There were wins for tech (+1.06%) and financials (+0.99%) while utilities (-0.12%) and telecoms (-0.11%) were the only laggards. European shares were mostly higher amid the continued political turmoil in Spain, the EuroSTOXX advanced 0.63 points, or 0.16%, to 391.03, the German DAX inched lower 2.47 points, or 0.02%, to 12,968.05, and the London FTSE 100 gained 40.41 points, or 0.54%, to 7,507.99. In currency majors, the US dollar index climbed 0.54% to 93.962 as recent data points to solid growth in the US economy. The EUR traded down to 1.1701 while USD/JPY traded up to 112.87. US treasury yields were higher, the 2 year yield firmed 1.62 bps to 1.4873% and the 10 year yield added 2.33 bps to 2.3462%. In commodities news, oil prices rallied on talk that OPEC members could extend production cuts until the end of 2018, Brent rose 2.13% to $56.99 and WTI lifted 1.52% to $50.74. Base metals were mixed, copper rose (+2.74%) while nickel (-0.75%) led the losses. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei sits at +0.17%, the Shanghai composite is at +0.28%, the Hang Seng at +0.36%, and the ASX S&P 200 at +0.87%. All eyes on the US tonight for the important non-farm payrolls data, we also have unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, wholesale inventories, and consumer credit out of the US; and factory orders out of Germany.

PRECIOUS: A dispiriting session for the precious with the stronger US dollar and further records in the equities markets providing a stiff headwind. Gold opened at $1275 in Asia and remained range-bound through a quiet trading day as the Chinese holidays continued. London were on the bid from the opening bell, propelling the market to the high of $1278 during the AM session. NY were sellers from the outset, the greenback rally, fuelled by positive data from the Commerce Department, ensured a steady decline for the yellow metal. Gold closed below $1270 for the first time in almost two months. Silver attempted a move higher, reaching a high of $16.72 during early NY trade, but was sold back down to the opening levels on the firming dollar. Once again palladium found favour with investors, climbing $15 to close near the highs at $939. The Philadelphia gold and silver index lost 0.52%. The SPDR Gold Trust holdings fell 0.38% to 851.06 metric tonnes. More quiet trading in Asia today as the Chinese enjoy the final day of their Golden Week holiday. Gold opened at $1268.40 and has remained within a tight $2 range with very little going through. The yellow metal is at $1267.40 as I write. Silver is range-bound also, the grey metal sits at $16.60 as I write. PGM's are flat also, with platinum and palladium sitting at $912 and $938 respectively. Investors will be casting a keen eye on tonight's non-farm payroll data release, given the relative strength in equities and the dollar, a strong NFP reading could have gold testing the 200 dma level at $1252.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 17 Oct 2017

MACRO: The New York Fed's Empire manufacturing index jumped to 30.2 during October (exp: 20.4) from 24.4 previously, marking a three year high as shipments and employment underpinned the headline figure. U.S. equities pushed higher to fresh record closes on Monday, as investors turned focus to the upcoming earnings season. The DJIA tacked on +0.37% to a fresh record close at 22,956.96, strength across financials (+0.64%) and technology (+0.37%) saw the S&P 500 +0.18% higher to a record closing level of 2,557.64 points and the Nasdaq Composite scored a +0.28% gain to end at a record close of 6,624.005 points. Tensions across the middle east buoyed oil futures on Monday, seeing the major contracts end at near three week highs on supply concerns. WTI tacked on around +0.8% to end the session at USD $51.87, while Brent crude jumped +1.1% to end just underneath USD $58 per barrel. The greenback pushed higher on Monday following comments from President Trump regarding his intentions to pass tax reform by the end of this year. The DXY index tacked on around +0.2% as the dollar regained the 112 handle against the yen, while the euro broke below 118. Markets across Europe started the week with modest gains, however saw downwards pressure from developments out of Spain following requests from Madrid for Catalonia's leaders to back away from their push for independence. The Stoxx Europe 600 ended the session flat after paring early session strength, while the German Dax ticked +0.1% higher to end above 13,000 points for the first time and the French CAC 40 tacked on +0.2%. In the U.K. the FTSE 100 (-0.1%) endured modest swings between gains and losses to ultimately end the session in the red as ConvaTec Group plummeted -27% following a cut to its full-year forecast, while resources stocks restricted gains on the back of stronger than expected Chinese PPI data.

PRECIOUS: Bullion exhausted its recent bid tone during late New York trade on Monday, dragged lower on the back of Trump tax reform headlines and discussions regarding the potential successor of Janet Yellen as Chair of the Federal Reserve. The greenback caught a bid late in New York to see gold south of USD $1,300, however quite frankly, bullion put up little resistance around the USD $1,300 pivot point to allow weak headlines to drag the metal lower. Higher treasury yields (10-year to 2.298%) and rumors that President Trump is favouring hawk John Taylor as the next head of the Fed ultimately outweighed any geopolitical premium that gold was holding onto, seeing the metal sharply to a USD $1,290.50 session low before specs piled in to restrict further declines. A soft close below USD $1,300 no doubt affected sentiment during Asian trade today, as bullion failed to encourage Chinese bargain hunters below the figure to see the metal test toward the New York low print in uninspiring trade. The recent support level around USD $1,290 was able to keep price action generally buoyant throughout the session, however bids were generally hard to come by and the metal looked susceptible to a move lower over the short term as recent longs begin to cut positioning following the sustained move below USD $1,300. Broadly support around USD $1,288 - $1,290 is the first port of call for bullion, while a break through this level will open up support at USD $1,275 (100 DMA), with ultimately extensions as far as the 200 DMA at USD $1,257. As we have become accustomed to in recent times, there is still a geopolitical premium attached to the metal and many participants are willing to play on the long-side with tensions between the U.S. and North Korea still in play to underpin support levels. Data today includes U.K. CPI/RPI/PPI, Eurozone CPI, German ZEW survey results, U.S. import prices, industrial production and the NAHB housing market index.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Wed 11 Oct 2017

MARKETS/MACRO: The US dollar traded defensively again with no clear catalysts behind the move overnight, although there were admittedly some nerves ahead of a key speech by the Catalonian regional president. U.S. stocks were firmer with the S&P 500 and the Dow advancing to new records as optimism appeared to grow ahead of the start of the earnings season, which will provide concrete insight into the state of U.S corporations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained +69.61 points, or +0.31%, to 22,830.68, the S&P500 rallied +5.91 points, or +0.23%, to 2,550.64 and the Nasdaq crept up +7.521 points, or +0.11%, to 6,587.251. The best performing sector was Consumer Staples (+0.96%) and the worst performing sector on the day was Consumer Discretionary ( -0.14%). Lingering worries over the Catalan crisis in Spain dampened momentum for European markets and outweighed the positives. The Euro First 300 Index remained flat at 1,533.83 and the Euro Stoxx 600 inched down -0.05 of a point, or -0.01% to 390.16. Regionally the FTSE100 advanced +0.40%, DAX dipped -0.21% and the CAC40 lost -0.04%. Crude oil prices rose strongly, WTI Crude up +$1.35, or +2.7%, to US$50.93 a barrel, as investors took solace from OPEC moves to include more producers in the current production cut agreement. Treasuries bull flattened overnight, the 10yr yield decreasing -1.26bps to 2.3463% and the US 2yr yield rising +0.02bps to 1.5042%.

The International Monetary Fund raised its estimate for global economic growth in 2017 and next year, citing stronger expansion in the first half of the year in the Euro zone, Japan and some emerging markets. Globally, the IMF upped its growth forecast to 3.6% in 2017 and 3.7% in 2018, both 0.1% higher than projections in July. Global growth in 2016 was 3.2%. The IMF said the tick up in activity that started in the second half of 2016 has "gained further momentum" in the first six months of this year. The fund also bumped up its forecast for U.S. growth to 2.2% in 2017 and 2.3% in 2018 from 2.1% for both this year and next in its July estimates. It now expects growth in the euro area of 2.1% this year and 1.9% next, both up 0.2 percentage point from three months ago. The IMF raised its call on growth in China to 6.8% this year and 6.5% in 2018, up 0.1 percentage point in each year compared with July.

Catalonia’s Regional President, Carles Puigdemont, addressed the Catalonian parliament early yesterday morning. Markets were on edge, and no doubt so was he – Spanish police were reportedly ready to arrest him if he declared independence. That declaration did not come however, at least not explicitly. Instead, he noted that Catalonia “has won the right to independence” and that he accepts the mandate of the people. He also used some relatively aggressive words to describe apparent national wrongs towards the region. In what appeared to be some form of olive branch to Madrid, he did propose suspending the consequences of the referendum result for weeks so that dialogue can take place. In other words, attempting to strike something of a middle ground for now and suspending the “illegal process” according to Madrid. There doesn’t appear to have been an official response from Madrid yet, although Bloomberg is reporting that a Spanish government official has already stated that Puigdemont’s speech is equivalent to a “deferred declaration of independence”. This issue remains extremely fluid, but one thing is clear, it is not going to go away quickly or quietly.

PRECIOUS: With China back in for a second day following their week long holiday last week, the gold continued to creep higher Tuesday, the weaker dollar and lower yields keeping the metal bid. We opened in Asia yesterday slightly on the back foot, gold dipping a few dollars in the opening hours but recovering into the Chinese open. USDCNH had fallen consistently throughout the evening towards 6.61 and had continued to look weak yesterday morning. It was no surprise that when the USDCNY opened for trade it had to play catch up. Consequently the premium on SGE pushed out hard to the right, boosting it towards a USD$13-15 premium over the spot equivalent. This drew out some decent buying interest on the SGE and pushed spot through $1285 and up towards $1287.50 just after the open. The metal remained supported throughout the afternoon and into the European morning, creeping higher in line with the soft USD. The metal dipped lower just after the U.S open back through $1290, yet made a quick reversal to the days highs of $1293.95. There was persistent selling in the $1290's though and the metal eventually gave way. This also was the result of a recovering USDJPY which traded off the 111.99 low, making it's way back to 112.45 by session close. Gold retreated slowly back to $1288 where it rounded out the day. Resistance for the metal now sits between $1297-1300 and support is seen at $1281 and $1274.20. The increase in spot gold has lifted gold volatility over the week, ATM vol looking as follows currently: 1m 10.5%, 3m 10.85%, 6m 11.9% and 1y 13.25%. In other metals, platinum has met some fairly tough resistance above $930, although it has managed to narrow the gap between itself and palladium, the former trading only ~$10-15 below now.

Today in Asia gold initially clawed back some ground after the softer NY session, pushing a few dollars higher above the $1290 threshold. It appeared traders were expecting China to be on the bid once again, so there were some spec traders sitting long at the open. Once the SGE opened there was a brief spike up to the highs of the days, but the demand of the previous days was just not there. With the lack of buying, some of the weak intra-day longs began to unwind and the metal swiftly dipped back toward $1287 on light to modest volumes. From there the metal has remained fairly quiet pushing into the afternoon in a small $2 range ($1287-89). In other markets, equities are generally firmer on the day in line with moves in the U.S, the Nikkei at time of writing up +0.3%, Shanghai Composite +0.3%, ASX200 +0.5% and Hang Seng flat. The USD has traded fairly flat so far on the day with moves against the majors inside 0.1% and crude has continued its run from overnight up +$0.15 to $51.08. On the data front today the market will be focussed on the FOMC minutes, due late in the NY session as well as JOLTS job openings data.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 5 Oct 2017

MARKETS/MACRO: US data releases continued to point to robust momentum in the economy as the Q3 data trail draws to a close. That helped to steady the USD which was on the back foot during the London morning session. The crisis in Spain, meanwhile, is continuing to rumble on with the Catalan's expected to declare independence from Madrid shortly. This prompted a near -3% drop in the IBEX 35 and further widening in bond spreads (Spanish 10y bond yields up 6 bps). U.S benchmark indices continued on their recent upward trajectory, the Dow Jones rising +19.97 points, or +0.09%, to 22,661.64, the S&P500 rallied 3.16 points, or 0.12%, to 2,537.74 and the NASDAQ crept up +2.913 points, or +0.04%, to 6,534.627. European indices snapped a nine day winning streak on the back of weakness in Spanish equities. The FTSE Euro First 300 index dipped -2.01 points, or -0.13% to 1,533.43 and the Euro Stoxx 600 inched down -0.32 points, or -0.08% to 390.40. Regionally the DAX increased +0.53%, FTSE was down -0.01% and CAC40 -0.08%. The USD closed fairly flat overnight as the market contemplates Friday's U.S employment report in a 'wait and see' fashion. Oil prices underwent a bit of a roller-coaster ride, as traders tried to make sense of conflicting signals ultimately closing the day down -$0.56, or -1.11%, at US$49.86. Prices were stronger earlier in the day as the impact of the strong draw down in inventories in the US continued to reverberate through the market. The fall of 6.02 million barrels was the biggest drop since mid-August. However, the big increase in U.S crude oil exports saw prices reverse course. Exports jumped to 1.98m b/d last week, while production was also higher. Reports that Russia was considering supporting an extension of the production cut agreement beyond March 2018 failed to support prices. U.S yields were flat, the 10y yield unchanged at 2.322% and the US 2yr yield up 0.01bps to 1.471%.

There was a fair bit of data to digest overnight. Starting in the U.S, the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) said its index of non-manufacturing activity rose to 59.8 in September (55.5 expected) from 55.3 in August. This marks the highest reading in over 12 years, when the index registered a 61.3. “The surge in the ISM non-manufacturing index is a clear sign that the economy is recovering quickly from any hurricane related disruption and that the underlying pace of GDP growth remains strong,” said a JP Morgan economist. Markit's U.S services activity index inched up to 55.3 from 55.1 in August (55.1 expected), while the composite PMI also edged up to 54.8 in September from 54.6 in August. "Measured across both manufacturing and services, future optimism is at its lowest since February, suggesting companies have become increasingly cautious about the outlook," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at Markit. "However, while optimism has slipped, the 'hard' survey data on recent output, new orders and hiring trends remain solid" he said. Still in the U.S, payroll processor ADP reported that firms across the country added 135k workers to their ranks in September, down from 228k a month earlier. This dip was mainly bourne by small businesses with a spokesman reporting, "This is in part due to Hurricanes Harvey and Irma which significantly impacted smaller retailers. In addition, the continued slow down we have seen in small business hiring could be due to a lack of competitive compensation to attract skilled talent".

PRECIOUS: Gold closed the day a few dollars higher Wednesday, with a surge of short covering around the NY open taking the metal above $1280 briefly, before data pointing toward continued robust momentum in the U.S quickly eroded investors zeal. During the Asian and London hours, the USD was correcting against recent strong sessions and gold as a result began to tick higher. Volumes however remained subdued with China still off enjoying a week long holiday. After opening at $1272 the metal pushed up towards $1275-76 where there was some modest two-way interest throughout much of the day. Early London traders pushed it higher towards $1278 although this was brief as some weak Asian longs were still looking to lighten positioning on the rise. The metal retreated back toward $1275-76 leading into the U.S morning, upon which there was a surge in demand and gold rallied to a peak of $1282.20 pretty sharply. The ADP employment report, which was in line with expectation then kicked off a rise in the USD. This picked up pace with the better than expected Markit Services and composite PMI's and ISM non-manufacturing shortly after. Gold and silver as a result retreated for much of the morning hitting lows of $1270.95 and $16.55 respectively or trading lower -0.9% and -2.0% from the intra-day highs. Gold closed at $1275 and silver $16.60. I think a lot of bulls will be weary of the price action overnight and eager to see what Friday's NFP's will bring. For gold, support sits around the recent lows and 100 dma ($1268-73) while there still appears to be good selling above $1280 (50% retracement July-Sep rally) and weekly high.

Another extremely quiet day in Asia for metals, with both China, HK and Korea out for holidays. The gold opened the day where it left off in NY and ticked a dollar or so higher on the open. Volumes were extremely limited through Ecomex and Tocom in early trade and the gold only traversed a minimal $3 range over the initial 6 hours. At time of writing (3pm Sydney) only 15k lots of GCZ7 have traded hands which is about 60-65% the average when China and HK are in. Silver has done very little too, plodding either side of $16.60 and PGM's have been flat all day. Very little to report in the precious in what has been the quietest day in an already quiet week. In other markets, currencies were very quiet across the board with the only real mover of note the AUD, with AUDUSD currently sitting at 0.7832 (-34 pips, or -0.43% on the day). The sharp dip in the single currency was the result of a weaker than expected August retail sales figure coming in at -0.6% (+0.3% expected). The July reading was also revised lower to -0.2% from flat, with weakness across the 2 months notable in food, restaurants and housing. There were a number of traders buying the dip however with some seeing opportunity in the move. Equities are currently up slightly on the day the Nikkei +0.02% and ASX200 +0.06%.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.