DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 16 May 2017

MACRO: Home builder confidence in the U.S. improved during May, seeing the National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index push to 70 (exp: 68) from 68 previously. higher building material costs and labour shortages are as yet not weighing upon optimism. The current sales conditions index ticked higher to 76 from 74 previously, while the index that measures buyer traffic eased to 51 from 52 previously. Business activity in New York State pulled back into contractional territory during May as the Empire State Manufacturing headline print collapsed to -1.0 (exp: +7.5) from +5.2 previously. The new orders component dropped to -4.4, while the shipments index eased to 10.6. Labour market indicators, employment and hours worked both showed modest improvement. Equity markets in the U.S. ran higher on Monday, seeing both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to fresh record closing levels as energy stocks supported the broader market. The DJIA added +0.41% to end the session at 20,981.94 points, with Johnson & Johnson (+2.71%) and Cisco Systems (+2.33%) leading the way higher. The S&P 500 (+0.48%) ended the session at 2,402.32 points as materials (+0.84%) and financials (+0.77%) supported the bourse, while the Nasdaq closed +0.46% higher on the back of gains to cybersecurity companies as the 'WannaCry' continues to create global issues. Oil prices rebounded on Monday as expectations surrounding continued production cuts by OPEC producers intensified. WTI settled over +2% higher, however drifted back below USD $49 per barrel late in trade (high of USD $49.66) to end at USD $48.85 per barrel following and EIA report forecasting higher U.S. shale production. Markets in Europe ended Monday's session with gains, led in part by commodity related stocks following Chinese President Xi Jinping's 'One Belt, One Road' infrastructure announcement. The Stoxx Europe 600 edged +0.1% higher as the bourse's oil and gas index posted a +0.9% gain, while the German Dax added +0.3% to end at a fresh record of 12,807.04 points. In the U.K. on Monday investor's piled into resources and energy stocks to take the bourse +0.3% higher and end at a fresh record close of 7,454.37 points.

PRECIOUS: The precious complex traded generally higher overnight, however pulled back from the session highs during New York trade, with short term money taking profit above USD $1,235. Moderate interest during Asian hours provided the platform for a sustained move through USD $1,230, while European names kept the price action buoyant on the back of a softer greenback. Early interest in New York saw gold to a session high of USD $1,237.20, however with sellers soon wrestling back control the metal pulled back in afternoon trade to settle around USD $1,230. Gold struggled from a lack of interest during early Asian trade today, holding above USD $1,230, however unable to make any headway higher in light flows. Chinese interest livened up the price action from the opening bell in Shanghai, as a further elevated on-shore premium (USD $14 over loco-London) provided support for move toward USD $1,235 leading into their lunch break. A modest pull back during the break between Chinese sessions was short lived and the yellow metal soon tested through USD $1,235 to open in Europe around +0.35% higher. Geopolitical concerns continue to underpin demand for gold, however events such as North Korea's missile test often provide only short-term support and we will instead turn focus to USD flows, with the greenback now at 6 month lows against the Euro. Support for the metal broadly sits around USD $1,225 - $1,230, while resistance initially comes in at USD $1,245 and above this broadly USD $1,247 - $1,250. After trading above USD $16.80 in New York on Monday, silver continued to see underlying interest support pricing during Asian trade today. The grey metal spent the Asian session grinding higher and is benefiting from reduced positioning following it's recent -13% decline (from mid-April highs) to a low of USD $16.08 printed only a week ago. Softer auto sales data and a forecasted fall in demand by the World Platinum Investment Council failed to discourage investor's today, seeing the white metal continue Monday's upward momentum to touch a USD $935 session high in Asia. Palladium meanwhile edged back above USD $800 today following Monday's -1.8% collapse. Data releases tonight includes CPI from France, Italy and the U.K. We also see PPI from the U.K., Eurozone GDP, U.S. Housing Starts and U.S. Industrial Production.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Wed 10 May 2017

MACRO: The latest Labor Department JOLTs report showed the number of job openings in the U.S. generally unchanged during March, holding at 5.743 million (exp: 5.725 million). Both hires and separations were generally unchanged at 5.3 million and 5.1 million respectively, while quits were unchanged at 2.1% and layoffs held at 1.1%. Wholesale Inventories popped higher during March, increasing +0.2% (exp: -0.1%) from -0.1% previously as an increase in durable goods inventories supported the figure. The National Federation of Independent Businesses’ Index of Small Business Optimism eased during April. The headline figure softened 0.2 points to 104.5 (exp: 104.0), with five of the ten components increasing, three declining and two unchanged. Declining expectations for business conditions was the main drag on the monthly print. Equity markets in the U.S. ended trade mixed on Tuesday, seeing late session weakness following reports that North Korea are planning their sixth nuclear test. The DJIA ended the session -0.17% lower at 20,975.78 points, while the S&P 500 saw weakness across seven of eleven components led by energy (-0.86%) to end -0.10% down at 2,396.92 points. Meanwhile the Nasdaq Composite continued it's recent record run, adding +0.29% to book a fresh record close of 6,120.587 points, as further gains to Apple (+0.62%) saw the tech giant's market capitalisation extend beyond USD $800 billion. Oil futures slumped on Tuesday following the latest EIA report forecasting U.S. crude production will increase +1% to 9.31 million barrels per day during 2017. The report comes as OPEC members get set to meet later this month in Vienna to decide on whether to extend the current production cut agreement. WTI ended the session -0.7% lower after bouncing modestly into the close, while Brent crude slipped -1%. Markets across Europe pushed higher on Tuesday, led by the Stoxx Europe 600 adding +0.45% to book its highest closing level since August 2015. Strong trade data out of Germany saw the Dax jump +0.43% to a fresh record close, while in the U.K. the FTSE 100 saw strength to miners lift the bourse +0.57%.

PRECIOUS: Gold traded under pressure in New York on Tuesday to follow relatively muted price action throughout Asian and European hours. The metal was able to hold above the 100 DMA around USD $1,225 leading into U.S. trade, however USD strength soon saw the metal underneath the figure on stop loss selling, while a further leg lower through USD $1,220 saw the session low of USD $1,215.25 printed. Headlines regarding the potential for North Korea to conduct their sixth nuclear test provided respite late in trade, seeing gold rip higher in the last hour, before settling around USD $1,222 to book a modest decline. The yellow metal failed to garner interest during Asian trade on Wednesday, as an early session bid tone was soon exhausted to see the metal pull away from a push above USD $1,224, settling into a narrow range either side of USD $1,222 throughout the afternoon. A modestly softer USD on the back of geopolitical risk is supporting the metal for the time being, however without further developments the short-term bid tone is likely to disappear and see gold resume its move toward USD $1,200. Initial support sits around USD $1,208, while below this we look to the psychological USD $1,200, with further support at the March low of USD $1,194. After breaking to a fresh 18-week low of USD $16.08 in New York on Tuesday, silver saw generally muted interest in Asia today, easing below USD $16.20 in lackluster price action. Platinum tested USD $900 in New York on Tuesday and was able to hold above the figure during Asian trade today, while palladium was unable to hold onto the USD $800 handle in New York and saw offers cap any moves through this level in Asia today. Data releases today includes Industrial / Manufacturing Production from France and Italy, U.S. Import Prices and the U.S. Monthly Budget Statement.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 4 May 2017

MACRO: The Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged at the May meeting, unanimously voting to keep the fed funds rate in a range between 0.75% and 1%. The committee's statement generally ignored recent mixed data releases and instead viewed “the slowing in growth during the first quarter as likely to be transitory.” while adding further that, "Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced." The largely 'bullish statement indicates that the committee is not shying away from a further two rate hikes during 2017, with the June meeting now very much a 'live' event. There was no commentary included within the statement that discussed how and when the Federal Reserve would begin shrinking its balance sheet. Private Payrolls in the U.S. printed generally in-line with expectations during April, increasing +177k (exp: +175k) to follow a modestly downwardly revised +255k during March (prev: +263k). Small Business (+61k) and medium business (+78k) shared the majority of the monthly gains, while large business (+38k) lagged. The Service-providing sector was responsible for +165k payrolls, led by professional and business (+72k), while the goods-producing sector (+12k) couldn't match March's +82k result. The Institute for Supply Management’s index of non-manufacturing activity jumped to 57.5 during April (exp: 55.8) from 55.2 during March. Leading the headline print was a +4.1% gain to prices paid, while the employment component disappointed. Markit reported modest non-manufacturing growth during April, seeing the seasonally adjusted Markit U.S Services Business Activity Index increase to 53.1 (exp: 52.5) from 52.8 during March. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit noted woth the releases, “Combined with a weak manufacturing PMI reading, the surveys suggest that business activity is growing at a slower pace than seen over the first quarter as a whole. However, a robust rise is likely to be seen in second quarter GDP as the official numbers exhibit greater seasonality than the PMI, with consistently weak first quarters being typically followed by a rebound in subsequent periods." Equities in the U.S. ended mixed overnight, as a late session run higher saw the Dow scrape into positive territory, while both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closed lower. The DJIA gained just +0.04% at 20,957.90 points, while declines to real estate (-1.25%) and materials (-1.00%) weighed upon the S&P 500 to see the bourse -0.13% lower at the closing bell. The Nasdaq (-0.37%) retreated from its recent run of record closes, under pressure as Apple shares softened following the tech-giants after the bell quarterly release on Tuesday. European markets closed Wednesday mixed as investor's traded cautiously leading into the FOMC announcement. The Stoxx Europe 600 ended the session just -0.04% down, the French CAC 40 eased -0.06%, while the German Dax bucked the trend to add +0.16% as employment data showed the unemployment rate held at 5.8% during April.


PRECIOUS: The upbeat FOMC assessment of the U.S. economy had the precious complex under pressure on Wednesday, taking gold through the 200 DMA to end the session -1.3% lower. The majority of Wednesday's price action was reserved for New York, sending gold through USD $1,250 in early pricing on the back of a stronger greenback, while further weakness was reserved for the FOMC statement, seeing the USD take a further leg higher following the committee's statement to push the yellow metal to a fresh 6-week low of USD $1,235.80. The price action around the Fed saw vols edge marginally higher, while ETF flows on Wednesday were generally unchanged. Early Chinese demand saw gold recover back above USD $1,240 during Asian trade today, in what was a generally robust session (33k lots through Comex) considering Japan and Hong Kong were on leave. The USD traded with a mild offered bias to support price action throughout the day, however early European trade saw gold back below USD $1,240 to test Wednesday's low print. As geopolitical concerns continue to abate, focus turns to the U.S. economy, in particular the upcoming NFP print and the implications for a June interest rate increase. Expect USD $1,250 to act as a pivot point of strong resistance, while key support levels come in at USD $1,230 and the 100 DMA at USD $1,222. Silver continued its recent slide during New York hours on Wednesday, taking out stops at USD $16.50 to print a USD $16.38 low, a level not reached since early January. The grey metal has now fallen close to -11% since printing USD $18.65 3-weeks ago. The white metal's collapsed through a number of technical levels on Wednesday, seeing Platinum below USD $900 to end the session -3% down and palladium below USD $800 to hand back a -2.8%. Both platinum and palladium were unable to convincingly break above the respective USD $800 and USD $900 levels during Asian trade today. Key data releases tonight include Markit Services / Composite PMI prints from Italy, France, Germany, the Eurozone and the U.K. Out of the U.S. we see Initial Jobless Claims, Factory Orders, Bloomberg Consumer Confidence and Durable Goods Orders.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Monday 15 May 2017

MARKETS/MACRO: U.S. equity markets closed fairly flat on Friday following some under-whelming readings on retail sales and inflation and as the bloodbath in retail stocks rolled on. The DJIA eased -22.81 points, or -0.11%, to 20,896.61, the S&P500 index shed -3.54 points, or -0.15%, to 2,390.90 and the Nasdaq Composite inched up +5.268 points, or +0.09% to 6,121.232. Losses in industrials (-0.7%), financials (-0.45%) and REITs (-0.4%) led the way lower, while utilities (+0.5%) and tech (+0.3%) posted the only gains. According to JP Morgan, Friday marked the 13th consecutive session that the Dow moved less than 50bps, the longest streak since Sept 1995. European stocks firmed on the back of strength in teleco's and healthcare in what was a choppy session of trade. The FTSE Euro First 300 rose +5.31 points, or +0.34% to 1,555.35 and the Euro Stoxx 600 edged up +1.24 points, or +0.31% to 395.63. Regionally the DAX added +0.47%, CAC40 +0.41% and FTSE100 +0.66%. Crude oil prices were relatively unchanged as the market focused on the supply that isn’t under the production cut agreement. OPEC reached a tentative agreement on the weekend to extend the production cut agreement, the state-run Kuwait News Agency reported. However the market remains unconvinced about the impact with strong growth from other supplies such as the US. The oil rig count rose for the 17th consecutive week, up 9 to 712 last week, which is the highest since April 2015. Libya also announced its oil production hit 814kb/d, up from 700kb/d in April. U.S. treasuries strengthened on the back of the softening inflation picture. The 2y note yield sank -4.5bps to 1.29% and the 10y bond yield tanked -6.2bps to 2.326%.

On the data calendar, both U.S. retail sales and inflation data increased over their respective reporting periods, though fell short of expectations. U.S. CPI rose a seasonally adjusted +0.2% MoM (+0.2% expected), although core consumer prices edged up just +0.1% MoM (+0.2% expected). The annualised increase in consumer prices slowed for a second month, up +2.2%, well down from February’s 2.8% pace which was the fastest in five years. Core prices rose +1.9% YoY, the first time the annualised gain had printed below 2% since October 2015. Gasoline prices rose 1.2% MoM. Food prices edged up 0.2% MoM. Shelter costs increased 0.3% MoM. Prices for autos, apparel and prescription drugs each declined. U.S. retail sales increased broadly in April, with sales at U.S. stores, restaurants and online retailers growing a seasonally adjusted 0.4% MoM (+0.6% expected), from an upwardly revised +0.1% in March (-0.2% prior). Core retail sales, i.e. those excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product, increased +0.2% (+0.4% expected) from an upwardly revised +0.7% in March (+0.5% prior). Motor vehicle sales increased +0.7% after three straight months of declines. Still in the U.S, consumer sentiment picked up in May, improving to 97.7 (97.0 expected) from a final April reading of 97.0. Chief economist overseeing the survey, Richard Curtin said, "Consumer sentiment remained on the high plateau established following Trump's election, with the early May figure nearly identical with the December to May average of 97.4. The Trump bump was relatively small given that the Sentiment Index averaged 91.8 in the comparable six month period a year ago and 94.5 in the same period two years ago. The recent stability in consumer sentiment, however, masks two important underlying shifts in the components as well as in the partisan divide. More favourable income gains and low inflation meant that consumers held the most favourable real income expectations in a dozen years. Buying plans, however, were mixed: household durables rose to a decade peak, while vehicle buying conditions slipped to a three year low. Home buying conditions were viewed less favourably, but were offset by the most favourable views about home selling in more than a decade".

PRECIOUS: Gold meandered quietly higher for most of the session on Friday, supported by the ongoing political drama in Washington and after China's banking regulator launched a risk assessment of lenders business practises, as it extends its crackdown on shadow banking. After opening around $1225 on Friday the yellow metal tracked a narrow $1.50-2.00 range throughout most of the day in Asia. The USDJPY and 10y UST yields were under pressure throughout the day, which kept a bid undertone for the metal, despite a lack of price action. The premium on the SGE remained strong throughout the day ($12-13 over the loco London price), particularly when the USDCNY traded lower in the PM session. By the time NY opened for business gold had built up a little more momentum, helped by the retail sales and inflation figures missing their targets, trading through $1230 in the morning. There was some noticeable producer selling on the day above $1230 however which kept a lid on things to round out the week, the yellow metal ultimately closing around $1229. Looking at the COTR, COMEX positioning in gold continues to fall, with specs cutting their bullish gold bets by 48,512 contracts, to 99,920. So over the week, longs of approx 20.4 million oz were reduced to around 16.4 million oz. Positioning is certainly much cleaner in our opinion and the overstretched sell-off in gold and silver appears to have slowed for now, however, the sturdier geo-political backdrop in Europe as well as investors increasing bets on a June rate hike (~90% priced in), should keep rallies contained. $1220-1245 seems to be the range for now, while silver we are looking at $16.20-16.85.

ASIA TODAY: It was a positive day for the precious metals complex to kick off the week, in particular the white metals were strong. News from the weekend that N. Korea had undertaken further missile testing, gave the precious metals an initial bump higher in early trade, with gold pushing a few dollars higher through $1230. Silver too continued higher pushing up to $16.50 but finding some sellers there for the interim. Once china came in, although the volume was light, they were on the offer and gold and silver both shed some of the morning gains. The SGE premium remained healthy at $10-11 over spot, dipping a little below that briefly through the morning session although stabilising around $10 over the afternoon. Silver continued to grind higher over the afternoon, taking out the $16.50 resistance and pushing up towards $16.55. It certainly feels that with the dramatic drop in silver holdings in both ECOMEX and ETF's we are beginning to see some spec and retail interest emerge. Platinum also had very positive day to start the week, initially hovering just above $920. Some Japanese buying however began to lift the metal which is comfortably sitting above $925 at present. On the data front today we had a number of releases from China most of which came in below expectation. Retail sales fell to +10.7% YoY from +10.9% a month earlier (+10.8% expected), Fixed assets edged down to +8.9% YoY from +9.2% in April (+9.1% expected) and Industrial production fell to +6.5% in April from +7.6% (7.0% expected). USDCNH rose from 6.8980 to 6.9020 over the next hour or so. For the remainder of the day the data calendar is fairly light Italian CPI and U.S. empire manufacturing the only releases of note. As I write the metals are on the highs of the day.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 9 May 2017

MARKETS/MACRO: The S&P500 and the Nasdaq edged further into record territory yesterday as Apple (+2.7%) continued to steam ahead on the back of reports that iPhone 8 production is proceeding as planned. The complacent trading attitude was highlighted by the VIX fear guage which closed below 10 (9.77), a 24 year low according to JP Morgan. The Dow Jones Industrial Average inched up +5.34 points (+0.03%) to 21,012.28, the S&P500 trickled up +0.09 of a single point to 2,399.38 and the Nasdaq crept up +1.902 points (+0.03%) to 6,102.66. Higher energy (+0.7%), tech (+0.4%), discretionary (+0.25%) and teleco's (+0.2%) countered losses in materials (-0.9%), healthcare (-0.6%) and REITs (-0.5%). European equities eased as investors “sold the fact” that was market favourite Emmanuel Macron winning the French presidential battle over the weekend. The FTSE Euro First 300 Index declined -1.65 points, or -0.11% to 1,547.73 and the Euro Stoxx 600 dipped a similar -0.50 of a point, or -0.13% to 394.04. Regionally the DAX lost -0.18%, FTSE100 +0.02% and the CAC40 lost -0.91%. Crude oil prices inched higher as Saudi Arabia indicated it would extend the production cut agreement. Oil Minister Khalid Al-Falih said that the group will likely maintain cuts this year and possibly into 2018. This was backed up Russia, with its Oil Ministry saying it was ready to support an extension to the oil deal beyond 2017. Bloomberg also reported that OPEC countries have also discussed the possibility of deepening their output cuts, although no consensus has been reached yet. In FX, Euro continued to retrace its initial post-French election moves in London and NY. The pair has since come off on the back of supply as we sit back below the 1.0950 post-payroll low, with 1.0850 the next immediate support level. Goldman Sachs have said it feels like the market wants to 'get back some of its short positioning in the rates space', saying that this would have clear implications for USDJPY in particular, now sitting at 113.20. Treasuries sold off across the curve as geopolitical concerns subsided following the Macron victory. The 2y note yield climbed +2bps to 1.33% and the 10y bond yield rose +3.8bps to 2.387%.

On the data front the U.S. Conference Board's Employment Trends Index increased sharply in April to 132.64 from an upwardly revised 131.58 in March. YoY the index jumped +4.1%. The increase was fuelled by positive contributions from seven of the eight components led by the Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers, Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, and Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance.

PRECIOUS: After some extreme volatility initially in Asia yesterday following the outcome of the French Presidential election, gold ended up the day at a level not too far from the close on Friday at $1226.50. The yellow metal gapped lower on the open in Asia, as the risk on move drove asset markets in teh wake of the result. Gold as a consequence initially saw an aggressive sell-off right on the open to a $1221.50 low in quick time. There was some support however seen below the 100 dma ($1223.50) which steadied the ship. The market then promptly began to rally as the Euro began to hand back morning gains and early Asian traders began to man their desks. As we headed into the Tocom open some decent buying was seen from them and helped push the price all the way back through $1230 and onto a high of $1234.50 (right on the hourly 55 EMA). The momentum did seem to run out after we led into the Shanghai open and the yellow metal consolidated around the $1230-32 area, on two-way flows. Into the London session there was another push higher to the days peak ($1236.40), although again we stalled and the gold began to lose ground in line with the EUR and bonds. The sell-off was fairly slow and steady throughout the majority of the NY session, making its way back down towards $1226 and closing there. Gold has remained under pressure over the past few weeks as political risks out of Europe diminish and investors anticipation of a Fed hike in June grows (further hawkish commentary overnight from Mester). The fact that equity markets are on or close to all time highs and 5 year rates are at the highest level of the year will also be weighing on the metal. Silver also continues it's fall from grace, although looks to be basing around $16.20, which it has held the last 4 trading days. The white metal has fallen -12.5% since April 17th, with no real sign of a corrective bounce. Speculative length according to the Comex COTR's, has fallen a hefty -45% from all time highs in mid April with investors which has been responsible for the sell-off. It will be interesting to see whether it can retain these levels or there is more of a flush out to come.

ASIA TODAY: It was a much calmer day across the precious metals today, gold tracking a $2.50 range for the most part on moderate volumes. Gold opened where we closed around $1226.50 and pushed a few dollars higher in the lead up to the Asian futures markets commencing trade. Volume remained fairly light throughout the morning with persistent bids seen, but it failed to really move the market higher. China were consistent buyers throughout the morning although again failed to push the spot higher. The SGE premium was trading at a $10-12 premium where it remained throughout the morning and afternoon. Not a great deal to report in the markets today. Ahead on the data front look out for German Industrial production and U.S. NFIB small business optimism, JOLTS report and wholesale inventories.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Wed 3 May 2017

MACRO: Auto sales in the U.S. were once again softer during April, with each of the six largest automakers reporting declining sales. The annualised pace of auto sales, adjusted for seasonal trends eased to 16.9 million during April (exp: 17.1 million), marking the fourth consecutive month of declines. Of the major manufacturers, GM sales fell -5.8% YoY (exp: -2%), Ford collapsed -7.1% YoY (exp: -4.7%), Fiat Chrysler slumped -6.6% YoY (exp: -4.9%) and Toyota declined -4.4% YoY (exp: -4.2%). U.S. stocks edged higher on Tuesday to end the session with modest gains as investor's anticipated Apple's quarterly earnings report. The DJIA closed +0.17% higher at 20,949.89 points, while soft trade to energy shares (-0.50%) as a result of falling oil prices were offset by industrials (+0.54%) and technology (+0.31%) to see the S&P 500 +0.12% firmer at the closing bell. The Nasdaq was supported +0.06% higher by gains to Apple, taking the bourse to a fresh record close of 6,095.366 points. Oil futures collapsed in New York on Tuesday, weighed down by higher levels of production out of Libya and the U.S., while survey results showing a fall in compliance among OPEC members with regards to agreed production cuts added further weight to price action. WTI collapsed through USD $48 to end the session over -2.2% lower at USD $47.66 per barrel, while Brent crude also traded well offered in New York to reverse early European interest and end just over -2% down. The greenback pared gains late in trade on Tuesday to end the session modestly lower, seeing USD/JPY back toward 112.00, while the EUR ripped higher into the close on news that Greece had reached an agreement expected to unlock further bailout funding. The Greek government has agreed to a number of demands from creditors that should pave the way for further funding following months of negotiations. Eurozone members and the IMF requested pension cuts and a lower tax-free threshold in order for the debt-laden country to receive the next tranche of emergency loans, however some countries have threatened not to provide further funds until the IMF joins the latest bailout program. Regional equities rallied on the news, seeing the Stoxx Europe 600 end the session +0.75% higher, while the German Dax gained +0.56%. Markit's Manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone touched a six year high during April, increasing to 56.7 (exp: 56.8) from 56.2 during March. U.K. manufacturing activity improved during April according to the latest Markit survey results, seeing the manufacturing PMI jump to a three year high of 57.3 (exp: 54.0). The solid result supported the FTSE 100 to a +0.64% gain, however gains were tempered somewhat by soft trade to the big miners following softer than expected Chinese data.

PRECIOUS: Gold held a narrow range on Tuesday as focus turns to this weeks FOMC meeting, testing toward the 200 DMA before seeing modest interest out of the U.S. as the greenback turned offered into the close. The yellow metal is finding it difficult to move away from USD $1,250 amid firming global equity markets, while the perceived risks surround the upcoming French election and tensions in Korea continue to dissipate. ETF's recorded modest inflows overnight (+16k ounces), halting for now the outflows we have been seeing since the first round of the French elections. Asian demand was virtually non-existent today (Hong Kong & Japan on holiday), with just 13k lots passing through Comex at the time of writing to see gold hold a USD $1.50 range. Participants are awaiting the FOMC today out of the U.S. for any indications as to future rate rises and changes to the balance sheet. Should we see any surprises from the Fed to push gold below the 200 DMA (USD $1,251), expect the next target on the down-side to sit around USD $1,230 - $1,235, however risks surrounding the upcoming French election should temper declines. Top-side moves are likely to run into resistance between USD $1,260 - $1,270 unless tensions in Korea flare up once again.
Silver saw 1.2 million ounces of ETF inflows help to support price action on Tuesday, however the grey metal still booked its twelfth decline in thirteen sessions after trading as high as USD $18.65 just over two weeks ago (-9.5% fall to current levels). Platinum held a narrow range today following the overnight weakness, while palladium pushed back above USD $820. All eyes today on the FOMC, while leading into the Fed we see German Employment data, Eurozone GDP, U.S. ADP Employment and Markit U.S. Services and Composite PMI prints.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Friday 12 May 2017

MARKETS/MACRO: US equities pared some of their heavy early losses to finish narrowly lower on disappointing earnings reports. The Dow edged lost 23.69 points, or 0.1%, to 20,919.42, the S&P 500 gave back 5.19 points, or 0.2%, to 2,394.44, and the Nasdaq fell 13.18 points, or 0.2%, to 6,115.96. Staples (+0.1%) were the bright spot as discretionary (-0.6%), financials (-0.5%), telecoms (-0.5%) and REITs (-0.5%) weighed heavy on the market. European shares were mixed, the EuroSTOXX shed 2.06 points, or 0.5%, to 394.39, the German DAX retreated 46.4 points, or 0.4%, to 12,711.06, whilst the UK FTSE edged higher 1.39 points, or 0.02%, to 7,386.63. In currency markets, the US dollar index was slightly lower at 99.626, the EUR traded up to 1.0887, whilst USD JPY traded down to 113.53. US treasury yields were lower, 2 year yields eased 2 bps to 1.225% whilst 10 year yields slipped 1.5 bps to 2.391%. In commodities news, the oil market rally continued as Brent gained 1.1% to $50.75 and WTI rose 1% to $47.82. Base metals were mostly higher, with nickel (+2.1%) leading the way higher. In US economic data, the Labor Department's producer-price index for final demand rose 0.5% in April, following a 0.1% decline in March. The reading exceeded economists expectation of a 0.2% increase and was the fasted annualised rate of growth in five years. Core PPI increased 0.7% in April from a 0.1% gain in March. Initial jobless claims fell 2k to a seasonally adjusted 236k in the week ending May 6. Continuing jobless claims fell by 61k to 1.918M.

PRECIOUS: Gold was on the offer early in Asia, sold to the days low of $1219 before quickly finding a bid, aided by the elevated SGE premium at $13 over loco London. The market pushed through $1220 and up to $1224 during choppy European trade. The yellow metal dipped to $1220 just after the opening bell but rebounded quickly to the days high of $1227 as USD JPY fell below 114, the market settling to close at $1224. Silver found a bid, printing the days high of $16.385 and closing the session in positive territory. Positive day for the PGMs, palladium gave back some early gains but hung on to close above the $800 level whilst platinum tested $920. The Philadelphia gold and silver index rose 2.86%. SPDR Gold Trust holdings were unchanged at 852 metric tonnes.

ASIA TODAY: Gold is trading a tight $3 range today but looks to be ticking higher in the PM session, reaching a high of $1227.60. The SGE premium is off slightly from yesterday at around $10-11. The yellow metal is at $1227.40 as I write. Silver has found a bid again after yesterdays positive showing, the grey metal is at $the days high of $16.42 as I write. PGMs are higher, with platinum at the days high of $924 as I write. In other markets, as I write the Nikkei sits at -0.39%, the Shanghai composite is at +0.65%, the Hang Seng at +0.07%, and the ASX S&P 200 finished at -0.70%. Tonight we have CPI, retail sales, consumer sentiment, business inventories out of the US; and industrial production out of the Eurozone.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Monday 8 May 2017

MACRO: French centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron has beaten Marine Le Pen to become the next French President. Current indications are that Macron has secured 65.8% of the vote, against 34.2% for Le Pen, a greater wining margin than was initially expected. Macron becomes the youngest ever president and faces the daunting task of uniting a fractured country. Job growth in the U.S. outpaced expectations during April to add 211k (exp: 190k), following a downwardly revised 79k during March (prev: 98k). Leisure and hospitality payrolls surged 55,000, professional and business services payrolls gained 39,000, healthcare and social assistance employment increased 36,800, government payrolls added 17,000, while retail payrolls rebounded 6,300 after two consecutive monthly declines. The unemployment rate eased to 4.4% (exp: 4.6%), matching the lowest level reached in the last economic expansion (May 2007), while the broader 'U-6' measure of unemployment and underemployment, which includes those who have stopped looking and those in part-time jobs who want full-time positions, slipped to 8.6% from 8.9% previously. The participation rate eased to 62.9% from an 11-month high of 63% in March. Average hourly earnings during April edged +0.3% MoM or $0.07 higher to be in-line with expectations, however on an annualised basis earnings eased to +2.5% YoY (exp: +2.7%) due to downwards revisions to previous months. Equity markets in the U.S. turned higher into the close on Friday, supported by the better than expected jobs data to see the major bourse's book weekly gains. The DJIA ended +0.26% higher at 21,006.94 points to end the week with a +0.3% return, while gains to nine of eleven components of the S&P 500 (+0.41%) led by energy (+1.63%), saw the bourse to a fresh record close and +0.6% higher for the week. Meanwhile the Nasdaq Composite posted a +0.42% return for the session to end the week with a +0.9% gain. European equity markets strengthened on Friday leading into the weekend French election. The French CAC 40 led regionals higher to post a +1.12% gain, while the Stoxx Europe 600 jumped +0.65% to end the session at the highest level since August 2015 and the German Dax climbed +0.55%. Oil futures bounced modestly on Friday to recover from early Asian weakness, seeing WTI around +2% higher at the close, however ending the week -6.3% down on the back of oversupply issues.

PRECIOUS: Gold traded relatively resiliently on Friday considering the strength of the U.S. jobs data, retracing early European gains following the figure, however holding support toward USD $1,225 and closing off the low print. The uncertainty surrounding the French election more than likely helped to support the metal following the payrolls print, potentially increasing short term opportunistic positioning, while ETF flows recorded light outflows (53k ounces). Gold saw whippy price action during early Asian trade on Monday as the dust settled following the French election. Early currency moves saw EUR higher (1.1022 high) as uncertainty over France's position within Europe eased for the time being, however the enormity of the task in front of Emmanuel Macon (over 34% voted against him) soon became apparent, seeing the common currency sharply retrace early strength and test toward Friday's low print of 1.0950. Weak positioning (potentially election positioning) in the precious saw offers take gold lower on the open, touching a USD $1,221.50 low in early pricing, however the move was well supported and bids restricted further declines. The softer EUR saw a brief 'risk off' period provide the impetus for a push through resistance around USD $1,230, taking the metal as high as USD $1,234.90 (close to Friday's high print) before sellers wrestled back control on the Tokyo open, injecting some much needed liquidity. Afternoon pricing saw gold hold around the USD $1,230 pivot point, however now that the uncertainty over the French election has disappeared (uncertainty over French political policy remains) we may well see gold test underneath USD $1,220 before the metal resumes the uptrend from December 2016. Silver price action generally mirrored that of gold on Friday, paring European gains following the U.S. payroll print, however able to hold recent support and end with a bid bias. The grey metal survived an early sell-off during Asian hours on Monday (USD $16.325 low), recovering to trade back toward the recent resistance level around USD $16.50 and generally holding firm throughout afternoon trade. Both platinum and palladium traded firmer today, consolidating Friday's flows.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 2 May 2017

MARKETS/MACRO: Global market liquidity was fairly thin yesterday with a number of markets out for the May Day holiday. U.S. stocks closed mostly higher led by a record all-time high for Apple (+2%), a day ahead of its Q1 result release and for fellow "FANGs" Facebook and Netflix. Investors shook off sluggish spending and manufacturing data and comments from the President about a break-up of the big banks. Complacency remained elevated as the VIX plunged more than 6% and at one point dipped below 10, its lowest level in more than a decade. U.S. indices were mixed, the Dow Jones shed -27.05 points, or -0.13% to 20,913.46, the S&P500 ticked up +4.13 points, or +0.17%, to 2,388.33 and the Nasdaq rose +43.995 points, or +0.73%, to 6,091.602. Wins for tech (+0.9%), REITs (+0.6%) and financials (+0.5%) led the advance while telecoms (-0.8%), utilities (-0.7%) and staples (-0.5%) dipped. Most European equity markets were closed for May Day so moves were limited in the combined indices. The Euro First 300 Index eased -1.8 points, or -0.12% to 1,517.54 and the Euro Stoxx 600 index dipped a similar -0.45 of a point, or -0.12% to 386.64. Crude oil prices were weaker as investors worried about increasing supply around the globe. The National Oil Corp in Libya said it was pumping oil at around 700kb/d, the highest rate since December 2014. Saudi Amarco lowered its price for Arab light crude into Asia, with investors’ viewing this as a precursor to increased exports into the region. This came at the same time as the release of data showing South Korea’s crude oil imports fell -7.9% YoY to 82.6 million barrels in April. The impact of another increase in drilling activity in the US (reported on Friday) also seemed to linger through the trading day and weigh. A public holiday in the UK saw base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange remain unchanged. Copper on the Comex in the US was slightly weaker as investors worried about demand following the worse than expected PMI in China. A slightly weaker USD also induced some selling.

On the data front U.S. consumer spending flat-lined for a second month in March. Personal consumption was unchanged (+0.2% expected) from a downwardly revised 0% in February (+0.1% prior), confirming the weakest double month stretch of spending in 2 years. Increased spending on services was countered by a drop in the purchase of big-ticket items such as automobiles. The price index for personal-consumption expenditures (PCE), the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, declined -0.2% MoM (-0.2% expected) and the core PCE edged down -0.1% as expected, the first negative print since 2001. After adjusting for inflation, spending grew +0.3% MoM (+0.4% expected) and personal income rose +0.2% MoM (+0.3% expected) from a downwardly revised +0.3% in February (+0.4% prior). Still in the U.S. manufacturing activity declined for a second straight month during April. The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) index of U.S. manufacturing activity dropped to 54.8 (56.5 expected) from 57.2 in March. The new orders index slumped 7 percentage points to 57.5 and employment tumbled 6.9 points to 52. The ISM index for exports rose to its highest level since late 2013. Markit announced that April data revealed a sustained upturn in U.S. manufacturing production, however, the rate of growth moderated further from the January peak. The seasonally adjusted Markit final U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index printed at 52.8 (52.8 expected) from 53.3 in March.

PRECIOUS: Gold performed poorly yesterday in the thin May Day conditions, ultimately breaking through support around $1260, after exhibiting strength in early Asia and again around the U.S. open. Friday's session had been one of steady gains, with Monday's initial reaction to break higher through $1270, taking some momentum from the weekend's news that North Korea had been conducting further missile tests. Things turned around as the morning progressed however, with congress tentatively agreeing on a $1.1 billion omnibus spending package to fund the government and it's agencies through to September 30, thus averting a shut-down. The USD rallied in the thin conditions and gold dived back through $1270 towards $1262.50 in short time, hovering around there throughout the rest of the Asian afternoon. With China out on holiday, the natural support they provide was absent and the metals never really looked like bouncing throughout Asia or Europe. Around the time of the NY open the gold popped back up just shy of $1270 in line with the weaker than expected U.S. data, although this was not sustained. The yellow metal broke lower later in the afternoon, flushing out stops below $1260 and pushing as low as $1254.35. It failed to recover into the close settling around $1256-57. Silver was hammered overnight falling from a peak of $17.26 just after the Asia open to $16.81 around the NY close. The white metal has had quite a fall from grace after testing up at $18.00 less than a week ago (~ -6.0%) with investors getting a little ahead of themselves. The XAU/XAG ratio traded back to 74.45 from the years low of 68.85, which illustrates just how severely the white metal has been sold in comparison on this round. There will likely be some Chinese demand underneath $17.00, so we expect the descent to slow in the short term. Short term N. Korea remains on investors minds and further provocative behaviour should see gold rise.

ASIA TODAY: A much quieter day in terms of price action today, with more liquidity back in the market. Gold opened around $1256 and traded quietly between $1256-57 leading up to the China open. There was a modest and brief spike on the back of some initial Chinese buying, which saw Au trade up to $1257.50 before easing back into the mornings $1 range. There was more interest around in the silver, which saw steady buying throughout the morning from SE Asian names and the Chinese once the SGE opened for business. Again price action was fairly lethargic hovering around $16.90-95 through until the afternoon with decent volume. In other markets equities were mixed, the Nikkei currently +0.65% and Hang Seng +0.25%, while the Shanghai Composite is a little softer -0.25% as is the ASX200 -0.35%. Crude was flat and the USD was generally a touch softer most notably against the AUD, which is trading last at 0.7545. On the data front, the RBA decided to keep rates on hold, as expected, at 1.50%. On balance there was some concession to recent data that employment growth has been a little stronger and that inflation was picking up, so on the whole a very mildly hawkish tone lingers. China Caixin manufacturing PMI came in a little lower than expected at 50.3 (51.3 expected, 51.2 prior). Ahead today look out for Markit Eurozone manufacturing PMI's and U.S. vehicle sales. Later in the week we have the FOMC, non farm payrolls and the second round of the French Presidential election which will draw attention.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 11 May 2017

MACRO: Import Prices in the U.S. outpaced expectations during April, increasing +0.5% MoM (exp: +0.1%), marking the fifth consecutive monthly gain following an upwardly revised +0.1% in March (prev: -0.2%). Petroleum prices underpinned the headline print to advance +1.6% MoM, while import prices ex-petroleum pushed +0.4% higher MoM (exp: +0.1%) to mark the strongest result since July 2016. On an annualised basis prices increased +4.1% YoY (exp: +3.6%), while annualised prices ex-petroleum gained +1.1% YoY, the highest level since March 2012. The U.S. government reported a budget surplus of USD $182.4 billion (exp: USD $179.0 billion) for April, as receipts jumped +4% YoY to USD $456 billion, while outlays collapsed -18% YoY to USD $273 billion. Equity markets in the U.S. ended trade mixed on Wednesday, with investor's trading cautiously following the abrupt firing of FBI Director James Comey. The DJIA saw weakness from Walt Disney (-2.15%) and Boeing (-1.25%) weigh upon the bourse, ending -0.16% lower at 20,943.11 points, while the S&P 500 saw strength from an oil price driven rally in energy (+1.06%) to inch higher late in trade and post a +0.11% gain. The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite continued its recent run higher on Wednesday, adding +0.14% to post a fourth consecutive record close following strong earnings reports. Oil futures recovered some of the recent losses during New York trade on Wednesday, with the catalyst for the move higher the latest EIA report that noted U.S. crude stockpiles dropped 5.2 million barrels in the week ended May 5. WTI jumped back above USD $47 per barrel to end the session with a +2.5% return, while Brent Crude added around +2.7%, closing above USD $50 per barrel. Markets in Europe closed firmer on Wednesday, with investor's gaining confidence following the French election result as the Euro Stoxx 50 Volatility index touched its lowest level since March on Tuesday. The Stoxx Europe 600 added further length to recent gains, ending the session +0.2% higher at its highest closing level since August 2015. The German Dax tacked on +0.1% to book a fresh record close, while the U.K. FTSE 100 outperformed to close with a +0.6% gain, its highest close since March 20 as the pound retreated.

PRECIOUS: The precious complex traded a relatively tight range on Wednesday, seeing gold hold around the 100 DMA throughout Asian and European hours, before tailing off in New York against a firming USD. They yellow metal held resiliently above the USD $1,220 support for the majority of Wednesday's session, however was unable to hold the figure during late New York pricing as focus moves from tensions surrounding North Korea to the potential for upcoming interest rate increases in the U.S. Asian trade on Thursday saw underlying support push gold back through USD $1,220 in early Shanghai pricing, seeing the on-shore premium edge back toward USD $14 amidst solid flows. A mid session slump while China took lunch was well bought toward USD $1,220 and the metal resumed its uptrend during the afternoon to print a session high of USD $1,222.80 leading into the European open. We look to broad support initially around USD $1,215, however should Geopolitical concerns abate further we are likely to test the psychological USD $1,200, with further support at the March low of USD $1,194. Silver resisted a further test lower in New York on Wednesday, with the recent sell-off now looking overdone and interest, albeit likely timid interest, creeping back into the market. New York pared a European spike higher to USD $16.32 on Wednesday, however the grey metal was able to hold around USD $16.20 throughout U.S. hours an didn't trouble Tuesday's USD $16.08 low print. Further interest was apparent during Asian trade on Thursday, seeing the metal test toward the previous session high, generally well supported through the session. The white metals traded bid during Asian hours on Thursday, with palladium recovering to push back above USD $800 and platinum breaking through Wednesday's high to test toward USD $920. Data releases tonight includes U.K. Industrial Production, the BOE decision (no change expected), U.S. PPI, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims and U.S. Bloomberg Consumer Confidence.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Friday 5 May 2017

MARKETS/MACRO: House Republican's in the U.S. voted on Thursday to dismantle the Affordable Care Act, winning the vote 217-213 (216 required), with 20 house republicans and all house democrats opposing. The next step is the Senate, testing the conservative and moderate Republicans once again. Initial Jobless Claims in the U.S. sunk 19,000 to a seasonally adjusted 238,000 (exp: 248,000) during the week ended April 29. The weekly print saw the four-week moving average 750 claims higher to 243,000, while Continuing Claims for the week ended April 22 declined 23,000 to 1.964 million (exp: 1.990 million). New Factory Orders in the U.S. ticked marginally higher during March, however turned in the lowest pace of growth since November. Orders added just +0.2% MoM (exp: +0.4%) to follow a +1.2% gain previously. Orders for non-defence capital goods (ex aircraft) added +0.5% (prev: +0.2%), while shipments of core capital goods, those which are used in the calculation of GDP added +0.5%. Equities in the U.S. closed narrowly mixed on Thursday, with heavy trade in energy stocks weighing upon the major bourse's. The DJIA ended the session -0.03% lower at 20,951.47 points after recovering from a mid-session collapse, while the S&P 500 ended just +0.06% higher with eight of eleven components closing higher (energy lagging -1.9%). Crude prices tumbled close to -5% on Thursday, hitting the lowest level since November to see WTI toward USD $45 per barrel. European markets benefitted from strong earnings results on Thursday, particularly from heavyweights Royal Dutch Shell and HSBC Holdings. The Europe Stoxx 600 surged +0.67% to close at the highest level since August 2015, while the French CAC 40 ripped 1.35% higher to book the highest close since 2008. In the U.K. the FTSE 100 benefitted from strong services sector activity and positive earnings results to end +0.19% higher. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei sits at +0.70%, the Shanghai composite is at -0.78%, the Hang Seng at -0.76%, and the ASX S&P 200 finished at -0.66%. Tonight we have Non-farm payrolls, unemployment, consumer credit, and earnings data out of the US.

PRECIOUS: Another rough session for the precious. Gold stayed within a $3 range through Asian morning trade before sliding down to $1232 in the PM session despite the SGE premium at an elevated $12 over loco London. There appeared to be some support at this level in London, with the market picking up a few dollars to $1236. NY were on the offer from the open, with the yellow metal tumbling to touch the days low of $1225. Gold bounced back up through $1230 as USD JPY dipped below 113, finally closing at $1227 following some choppy trade in the PM session. Silver's woes continued, reaching a low of $16.22. The grey metal has dropped 13% in less than a month. There was better news for the PGM's, platinum climbed briefly above the $900 level and palladium was able to consolidate above $800. The Philadelphia gold and silver index fell 2.87%. The SPDR gold trust holdings fell 0.28 metric tons. In Asia today, Gold opened at $1228 and traded sideways through the morning with the SGE premium around $10 over loco London. The market ticked up after lunch as the US dollar began to slide against the yen. The yellow metal is sitting at $1232.90 as I write. Silver has found a bid also, the grey metal is at $16.45 as I write. PGMs are also pushing higher.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Monday 1 May 2017

MACRO: U.S. gross domestic product underwhelmed during Q1, increasing at a +0.7% QoQ annualised rate (exp: +1%) from +2.1% previously. The print was the weakest performance since Q1 2014 and predominately a result of soft consumer spending, inching just +0.3% higher (exp: +0.9%) to mark the slowest pace since Q4 2009. Both business inventories and government spending on defence weighed upon the headline figure, while business spending on equipment offset some of the weakness, spiking +9.4% to mark the fastest rate since late 2013. Core PCE meanwhile printed in-line with market expectation, increasing +2.0% QoQ during Q1 from +1.3% previously. The University of Michigan’s reading of consumer sentiment (final) for April pulled back to 97.0 (exp: 98.0) from a flash read of 98.0, however improved marginally on March's final print of 96.9. Richard Curtin, the survey’s chief economist noted that there is still a divide between the Democrats pessimistic view and Republicans optimistic outlook, with selective perception of news being the driving force. Economic conditions within the Chicago area improved during April according tot he latest MNI Chicago Business Barometer release, jumping to 58.3 (exp: 56.2). The April print was the highest since early 2015 and was led by higher optimism regarding business conditions, new orders pushing to a near three-year high and increased labour demand. Equity markets in the U.S. closed lower on Friday, however were able to hold onto solid gains over the month of April. The DJIA eased -0.19% to 20,940.51 points, ending the month around +1.3% higher, while weakness across telecoms (-1.04%) and financials (-0.94%) saw the S&P 500 also -0.19% lower to close the month +0.9% higher. The Nasdaq composite eased just -0.02% on Friday, posting a +2.3% gain for the month and breaking above the important 6,000 point level for the first time. European markets posted modest declines on Friday, weighed down by a stronger Euro following positive inflation data out of the region. Eurozone CPI (estimated) increased +1.9% YoY (exp: +1.8%) during April from +1.5% previously, while core CPI gained +1.2% YoY (exp: +1.0%) during April, from +0.7% previously. The Stoxx Europe 600 shed -0.18%, the German Dax eased just -0.05%, while the French CAC ended -0.08% lower. In the U.K., GDP printed softer than expected during Q1, adding +0.3% QoQ (exp: +0.4%) to take the annualised gain to +2.1% YoY (exp: +2.2%). U.K. equities traded under pressure amid a stronger sterling, sliding -0.46%.

PRECIOUS: Gold edged marginally higher on Friday, albeit still within its recent range as a softer U.S. GDP print supported the metal into the close. The metal saw a modest bid tone throughout Asian / European trade, before testing support toward USD $1,260 on the U.S. open. The softer then expected U.S. data saw the USD moderate throughout afternoon trade, seeing gold bid toward the recent resistance of USD $1,270 to end the week. Early Asian interest today saw the yellow metal rip through stops around USD $1,270 in thin holiday trade, running into offers around USD $1,271 before turning sharply lower as the USD regained the ascendancy. Interest around USD $1,262 restricted further declines to keep the metal within the recent range and we are likely to see this theme continue today with the U.K. on holiday. Silver's soft New York pricing on Friday continued into Asian trade today, as an initial bid tone was soon exhausted to see the metal touch a near six-week low, looking towards USD $17.00 to restrict further declines. The white metals saw early interest today, however retreated throughout the afternoon to end modestly lower. Data tonight includes U.S. Personal Income, PCE and ISM.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.