DAILY REPORT : Monday 12th August 2013

MACRO: A reasonably quiet and orderly start to the week with little market moving news over the weekend. The USD appears to be making back some lost ground and sitting on technical support ahead of this week’s US economic releases which are likely to be further USD supportive. US retail sales are released tomorrow. Fed Presidents' Bullard and Lockhart are speaking (again) mid week whilst US Industrial production and CPI are released later in the week. The combination of Bullard (the Feds most dovish member) and the CPI only one day apart should present a good opportunity for the market to gauge where exactly the Fed sits for its next meeting in regards to the tapering of their asset purchases. Generally speaking, it looks as though US economic momentum has picked back up in recent weeks after a soft patch during June and July. The US ten year swap rate has consolidated following the move higher in May-July and if the economic data remains buoyant, the market is likely to stay at these elevated levels.
US stocks lost ground on Friday as investors booked profits after solid gains over the past few weeks in conjunction with the slightly softer than expected inventories report. The Dow Jones fell by 73 points (-0.50%), whilst the S&P500 lost 6.10 points (-0.40%). US wholesale inventories fell for a second straight month in June. Wholesale inventories declined by 0.20% (exp +0.50%) to a seasonally adjusted $499.68 billion. It was a weaker outcome that the government was expecting in its 1.70% growth estimate of Q2 GDP announced last week. European shares rose on Friday with the stronger than expected Chinese Industrial production data boosting resource stocks. The FTSEEurofirst 300 index finished the session up 0.60%, its highest close since May 28. The Dax closed up 0.20% whilst the UK FTSE gained 0.80% on the day. There are a slew of key economic releases this week in Europe:
· German ZEW
· UK CPI Inflation
· UK MPC minutes
· Euro zone/French/German GDP
· UK Retail Sales


PRECIOUS METALS: A solid close for the week in the precious metals has the market braced for further gains in the coming days. The market traded in a reasonably tight $11 range on Friday, but momentum was certainly in the metals favor. A number of market pundits seem to have positioned themselves on the short side, especially after a couple of investment banks released reports recommending their clients go short gold around the 1280/90 level last week. The yellow metal seemed to have found a base just north of 1270, and since this level was tested it has been a one way street. According to the most recent Commitment of Traders Report an impressive 2.68 million ounces
of gold was bought (short covering) in the latter half of last week. The metal is now back in its familiar 1300-1350 range and must convincingly breach 1350 for a technical break out on the topside. In other precious news, gold premiums in India continue gain international attention, as the Central Bank has imposed restrictions on imports. It is being reported on Bloomberg than premiums have jumped a further $10 to be now trading at $40 over spot. A number of market participants are warning that the premiums will most likely increase further (some are saying as high as $100!!) if the government don't ease the restrictions on imports.


ASIA TODAY: Gold and silver were off to the races first thing this morning on Globex. After the strong close on Friday and a number of stop loss orders sitting just above 1320, the market seemed hell bent on pushing higher despite a number of sizable offers sitting just above the NY high, between 1318/20. Once the offers were all paid,
the market gapped through 1320 all the way up to 1333 with stop after stop being triggered. Within the first 45 minutes or so, a whopping 6,000 lots had traded. Silver was also a star performer, opening around 20 cents above the New York close (opened 20.65), and trading as high as 21.27 in line with gold's strength before settling for the
remainder of the session just above 21.00. It seems that sentiment is improving across most markets, and in particular in China. Recent data has been better than expected, and as a result we have seen resource stocks push higher around the globe, helping base and precious metals. Adding to that is the potential supply side problems out
of South Africa and the reduced CFTC short positrons as mentioned above ...... has the precious complex finally turned the corner on what has been a tumultuous year?!?
The main data release in Asia today was the Japanese prelim GDP. The figure came in much weaker than expected at 2.60% annualized versus 3.60% expected. Despite the figure being softer than expectations it was still the third consecutive quarter of expansion and the pace stronger than Japan's average in recent years. Prime Minister Abe was on the wires later in the day stating that the economy is improving steadily due to the Government's economic policies since last year and that the Gov. will tackle the economy with an eye on growth policies towards autumn.... As a result the USD/JPY jumped close to 70 pips, trading as high as 96.65 before settling around 96.50.


EUROPE TODAY: Gold started the day quietly after the solid run up seen in Asia. The metal traded in between 1324 and 1334 with low volumes until lunch time where new bids started to appear. India’s Finance Minister said to be looking to contain gold imports at 850 tons this year and some small stops triggered above 1335 on Comex
open sending the metal to a high of 1342.50. The rise in the metal was well supported by strong silver and a gold/silver ratio unwinding; indeed the ratio lost 1.5 points today down to 62.57 which was last seen end of June this year. Silver managed to break back above the 50 dma since last February signaling a bullish trend and is now targeting the 100 dma at 22.30. In PGMs, Platinum traded sideways of 1500 with a quick spike at the morning highs on news that a worker was shot dead at Lonmin’s Marikana platinum mine in South Africa. the spike was rapidly offered however as the spot price reached resistance close to this year’s technical pivot point at 1510.

 

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT: Friday 2th August 2013

MACRO: Overnight, data out of the US was once again positive and the greenback remained firm throughout the session (particularly against the Yen). July ISM
manufacturing data jumped to 55.4 (vs 52.0 exp) from 50.90 the previous month. This is the highest reading in more than two years. The ISM report stated "Comments from the panel generally indicate stable demand and slowly improving business conditions,". New orders increased to 58.3 from 51.9 whilst the production index leapt from 53.4 to 65.0 - the highest reading in nearly a decade! The other top tier data, jobless claims

Read more: DAILY REPORT: Friday 2th August 2013

DAILY REPORT : Friday 26th July 2013

MACRO: The USD reversed its recent ascendancy and was offered throughout the New York session spurred on by unimpressive Durable Goods data and a dovish sounding
Fed "insider" Hilsenrath article released later in the day. Headline Durable Goods orders rose by 4.20% in June following an upwardly revised 5.2% gain in May, but core
capital goods shipments were particularly weak and the ex transportation reading was also disappointing with orders flat for the month. US initial jobless claims edged up to
343,000 last week, but remains within a rough 330k-360k range recorded over most of the year. US rates retreated over the course of the session which put even further
pressure on the greenback. Across the pond, European shares finished the session weaker as profit warnings by industrial heavyweights saw investors sell out of the broader market. BASF, the world’s largest chemicals group fell by 4.6% after a profit downgrade whilst Germany's second largest company, Siemens fell by an ugly 6.2% after warning the market that is was unlikely to reach its 2014 profit target. The Dax finished the session down 1% and the FTSE -0.50%. The US market finished the session marginally higher, boosted by tech stocks such as Facebook which surged nearly 29%! In the land of currencies, the AUD staged an impressive reversal from the previous sessions weakness, rallying more than one big figure, trading as high as 0.9281 whilst the EUR traded as high as 1.3296 The Hilsenrath article in the WSJ titled "Fed Likely to Consider Easy-Money Message" had a number of interesting and potentially market moving points. In summary:
· The Fed is likely to keep its $85 billion / month bond buying program in place at its   policy meeting next week.
· It's likely that Fed officials will debate changes to the way the central bank describes its plans for the program and for short term interest rates.
· The Fed is likely to assure the public that rates will be staying low for the foreseeable future and may address the concern of some officials that the Fed needs to show resolve preventing inflation from falling too low.
· It is more than likely the Fed will discuss whether changing its wording will clarify its intentions or create further market volatility and confusion amongst investors.


PRECIOUS: The gold and silver traded in extremely choppy conditions overnight. The metals plummeted lower in European trade for no particular reason as the yellow metal touched a low of 1310 before finding its feet, whilst silver dropped as low as 19.25. Once the lows had been reached the metals rallied just as aggressively catching the
market off guard, squeezing out the intraday shorts. After the AM fix, gold's fortune changed for the better and the Asia high of 1325 was coming under pressure once more. Once this level was breached the market didn't look back, pushing another $10 higher in what was a $25 recovery from the day’s low!! The Hilsenrath article only added to gold's push higher as the metal printed a high of 1337.50 before finishing the session at 1335.00. In other precious news, it was reported by the World Gold Council that Chinese demand for gold could hit a record 1,000 tones this year and overtake India as the world’s biggest consumer! Further bullish news for the metals was data on
the International Monetary Fund's website showing a number of countries, such as Greece, Kazakhstan and Russia have increased their gold holdings.


ASIA TODAY: Gold opened this morning to little fanfare and traded either side of 1335 for the first couple of hours leading up to the Tocom open. The premium on the active contract was slightly better bid than it has been recently (+$2 over spot), and as a result the Japanese banks were buyers to start the day. Gold crept a few dollars higher but interest and volume was on the low side, despite the wild trading conditions witnessed in London and New York. The Chinese were light buyers as well on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (still trading +$15 over spot) open and gold continued its push higher over the course of the AM session. The afternoon session proved less fruitful and traded sideways for the most part awaiting London for direction. Gold is headed for the longest weekly rally since March this year as recent US economic data strengthened the case for sustained monetary stimulus by the Fed. The yellow metal is up a healthy 3% this week after touching a one month high of 1348.50 on Wednesday. For the month of July gold is up 8.1%, which will be the best monthly performance since January 2012! Despite gold's recent performance, gold ETF's continued to post outflows yesterday, as holdings in the world’s largest gold backed ETF, SPDR, fell by a further 2.41 tones to currently stand at 927.35 tone. iShares Silver Trust performed more admirably, posting its largest one day jump since January, currently standing at 10,428.04 tones. The market looks set to continue to trade within 1300-1350 range with no major economic reports tonight.


EUROPE TODAY: Today markets opened at a good level. Gold strolled between $1335 and $1340 for a while and it then started to drift lower. It made a first step at $1330 around midday and a second step at $1325. It rose abruptly to $1332 during the fixing time despite the good numbers released by Michigan University. The consumer
sentiment hit a six year high July, at 85.1, prior was 83.9 and expected was 84. After a while the price started to be affected by the announcement and began a vertiginous drop. Stops triggered below $1323 and market felt to hit the day’s minimum at $1313.50. We guess that Gold has also been pulled down by weaker Silver. From that point gold went for a full recovery and is now trading between $1330 and $1335. on the technical side, It seems the yellow metal is now bulding a flag in bettween 1300 and 1340 testing both supports and resistance nervously awaiting for the next driver. Silver opened around $20.25 and started to fall progressively until US joined the session at $19.90. A little interest brought us back to $20.10, before it dropped severely by $0.30 to hit $19.70. The grey metal remained weak until Comex close but regained some of its losses on globex on thiner liquidity. PGM’s had approximately the same day. They followed Gold on the drop, except they didn’t have the rise around fixing time so they have been even weaker. Concerning Platinum, after the calm session in Asia it opened at $1450 and started to fall directly. It went down to $1430 and traded in a 5 dollars range for a while before following Gold on the drop and hitting the day minimum at $1412. Palladium was one of the few to print a high above the London open. The fall was softer but it had the same movements as Platinum. It opened at $739 it went down to $717 and it is now trading around $723. We notice that Palladium doesn’t get out of the $710/$750 range.

 

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Friday 9th August 2013

MACRO: Very little action overnight in the equity and currency markets, but the precious metals performed admirably, despite all of the negative press doing the rounds. The main data release was the US jobless claims which edged above the five year low last week. Initial jobless claims rose by 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 333,000 (versus mkt expectations +335,000) in the week ended August 3. The monthly moving average of claims, which is meant to smooth the week to week volatility, edged lower by 6,250 to 335,500 - the lowest level since Nov 2007. The number of unemployment benefit claims rose 67,000 to 3,018,000 (mkt cons. 2,950,000), making back some ground that has been lost over the last couple of weeks. There continues to be Fed chatter. This time it was Federal Reserve member Richard Fisher (Bank of Dallas President) reaffirming his view that the Central Bank should begin tapering of its bond purchases as soon as next month, unless the economy worsens significantly. He was quoted in a German newspaper saying "We should begin reducing bond purchases in September, as long as we don't see a clear worsening of the economic data,". The US share market finally showed some life (Dow +0.18%, S&P500 +0.39%), rebounding from a three day losing streak. The gains were led by the technology sector with Microsoft rising by 3% whilst the telecommunication sector lagged finishing the session down 1.0%. US long term treasuries rose as the US Treasury auctioned $US16 billion in 30 year bonds whilst
the US ten year yield lost 1 bp to 2.59%. European shares rose as better than expected Chinese data helped support mining shares. Financial shares also traded with a solid bid throughout the session. The Stoxx 600 European banking index rose by 1.40%, the German Dax +0.70% and the FTSE finished the trading day up 0.30% Most currency's remained well bid against the greenback overnight as the stronger Chinese trade data released yesterday buoyed the markets. The AUD took out a number of topside stops and barriers trading as high as 0.9135 whilst the EUR also pushed higher, briefly trading above 1.3400, before settling around 1.3380 for the remainder of the session. Most of the recent data releases in the eurozone have surpassed expectations such as the German trade data overnight, meanwhile the stronger than expected Chinese figures should support investor’s growth expectations for the Eurozone area as a whole.


PRECIOUS METALS: A huge rally overnight across all of the precious has seemed to have reignited interest once again. The weakness in the US Dollar, and the overall short positioning of the market, were the main reasons for the metals to squeeze higher. Stop loss buying propelled the gold up to and through initial resistance at 1297 and again at 1300. Once 1300 was paid, another sweep of buying hit the futures exchange pushing the yellow metal up a further $6/7. At the end of the day the market had surged nearly $30 higher, with no news/data making the move even more impressive. Platinum performed even more admirably, jumping close to $50 (+4%), trading just shy of
1500.00, before finishing the day around 1490.00. Momentum buying on the break of the 100 day moving average (1456) sent the white metal rocketing higher without an offer in sight. Traders are now looking at the next key technical level, the 200 day moving average, which currently sits at 1535.00.


ASIA TODAY: A slew on economic data releases today such as Chinese CPI / PPI, Industrial Production and retail sales, RBA statement, French IP, UK trade balance, Italian CPI and US wholesale inventories.


· To start things off the Chinese CPI came in slightly weaker than expected (2.70% y/y vs  2.8% expected)
· Chinese Industrial Production was stronger than expected (9.70% y/y vs 8.90% expected)
· Chinese Retail Sales marginally softer. 13.20% vs 13.50% expected
· RBA lowered near term growth forecasts, but left the forecasts for the end of 2014 unchanged (2.50%-3.50) and published the end of 2015 estimates for the first time (2.75%-4.25%)
·
Despite the smorgasbord of data announcements, both the Precious and Forex markets were reasonably slow for the most part. Apart from the Aussie having another leg higher late in the afternoon (hi 0.9154) the G7 currency's traded in tight ranges (Eur 1.3376 - 1.3390) awaiting the Europeans for direction. The gold was a little more active,
but in comparison to last nights near $30 range, it was a slow old day. The market opened the day on Globex with a little buying interest around the 1313/14 level. Small demand continued for the ensuing couple of hours leading up to the Tocom open. The Japanese didn't seem to have much interest, once the SGE fixed, the market jumped a
few dollars testing the overnight highs. A few stops were triggered on the break of 1315, but the demand didn't lastlong and the market retreated back down towards 1312 which is where we idly sat for the PM session, with very little activity or interest seen. Early Europe seemed happy to sell the gold, pushing it a few dollars lower, squeezing out intraday longs, but a few bargain hunters were waiting in the wings preventing any further falls. One gets the feeling if the market is going to extend its gains it will happen in New York trading as it was their session when market was paid aggressively overnight.


EUROPE TODAY: Today gold dropped just after the opening ($1313) to hit $1307.50. It stayed quite stable for a while but dropped again to hit the minimum of the day at $1305. It directly recovered and rose to hit $1314 just after midday. The price fell again and stayed for a while within the $1308.00/$1312.00 range. After the fix market restarted to rise and tested the Asian high at $1317.50. The level couldn’t be undertaken and gold descended to $1310. The yellow metal ended the day quietly while trading between $1310 and $1316. In France we had the Industrial Production MoM that fell by -1.4%, expectations were at 0.3% while prior was at -0.04%. In US, the Wholesales Inventories MoM came at -0.2% vs survey at 0.4% and prior at -0.5%. Silver had a solid day and rose the whole day except at the opening time. It opened at $20.20, fell to $20.09 and then started the climb. It made a first step at $20.27, a second step at $20.40 where it tested this important resistance. It didn’t break it and came back to $20.30 for a while. After several testes of the resistance, silver finally broke it and hit $20.52 for the first time in the past 2 weeks. After Comex closed the grey metal even reached $20.58. Platinum had a busy day too. The white metal started the European session at the lows. The metal reached $1465 during lunch time and jumped to 1500ish. The metal ended the day trading sideways that level while printing a high at $1501 ahead of the Comex close. Palladium hit the high of $742 after London session started but fell by $8 to reach the low of $735 before lunch time. The metal recovered pretty quickly and consolidated above $740 once New York joined the session. After Comex close, palladium tested several times the day’s high.

 

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT: Thursday 1th August 2013

MACRO: As expected, it was all about the FOMC overnight. A number of market participants caught on the wrong side of the exaggerated USD moves witnessed
throughout July were hoping for hawkish rhetoric by the Fed to rescue their trades in the final hours of the month, but instead the Fed delivered a fairly dovish message. There was no reference to the tapering timeline outlined at the June press conference and as the Fed is usually keen to foreshadow policy changes at least one meeting in advance,

Read more: DAILY REPORT: Thursday 1th August 2013

DAILY REPORT : Monday 29th July 2013

MACRO: The USD is likely to be supported ahead of the FOMC policy meeting this week. Judging by the recent pressure the US ten year yield has been under, market participants are expecting the FOMC's policy statement released on Wednesday to be dovish. Most economists are predicting a reiteration by the Fed of its previous statement
released on 19 June, which was supportive of the greenback. A smorgasbord of other top-tier US economic data are also released this week, most notably ADP employment
(Wednesday), first estimate of Q2 US GDP (Wednesday), ISM manufacturing (Thursday) and the all important Non Farm Payrolls (Friday). Last Friday's session was reasonably
bare as far as economic releases go, with the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index being the highlight. The figure rose from 83.90 in June to a six year high of 85.1 in July. US shares fell sharply on the open of trade, but edged higher over the course of the day to finish marginally in the black. At one stage the Dow was down 150 points, but finished the session up 3 points. US Treasuries also rose modestly. European shares eased lower on Friday with a weak earnings result released by Deutsche Boerse weighing on the Dax whilst the FTSE shed half a percent. The US Dollar initially traded higher in European trade against G7 currency's but gave back all of its gains in NY. The Euro finished the week at 1.3275, whilst the USD/JPY closed rather precariously just above 98.00. It was a reasonably slow weekend for market moving news announcements. The articles getting the most air time this morning are as follows:

July 29 (Bloomberg) -- China will begin a nationwide audit of government borrowings, as the nation’s growth slowdown puts pressure on the new leadership to determine the extent of potential bad debts weighing down the economy.


July 28 (Reuters) -- Japan's most significant fiscal reform in years - a planned increase in the country's sales tax - could be delayed or watered down in a move that might rattle financial markets and amount to an own goal for the prime minister. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/28/us-japan-economy-tax-idUSBRE96R02A20130728


July 28 (Reuters) -- Italy's economy will begin emerging from its longest slump since World War Two in the fourth quarter of this year and should grow through 2014, Economy Minister Fabrizio Saccomanni said. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/28/us-italy-economy-minister-idUSBRE96R04220130728


PRECIOUS METALS: The precious complex traded in another volatile, choppy session on Friday. The sell off started late in the Asian day and the weak price action continued throughout London and early NY trade. The gold traded as low as 1313.50 before staging an impressive rally all the way back up to 1335.00. The movement in gold
and the US Dollar seems to have decoupled for the time being as the EUR was trading firmly in one direction whilst the yellow metal was doing the opposite. There were reports doing the rounds on Bloomberg this morning that hedge funds are once again trading gold on the long side according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showing net long positions have risen 26% to 70,067. This is now the fourth consecutive weekly gain which is the longest streak in ten months. Gold finished the week up 2.10%. Meanwhile Goldman Sach's head of commodity research, Jeffrey Currie was quoted "The metal (gold) will drop to $1,050 by the end of next year" as confidence among American consumers reached a six year high in July and going forward the Fed will have a "less accommodative monetary policy stance" , which will weaken consumers appetite for gold. The gold price has now dropped eight of the past nine months as the greenback has firmed and global stocks are trading much higher. The plummeting price has forced mining giants, such as Barrick and Newmont to announce more than $15 billion USD of write downs in the past two months. Meanwhile, John Paulson's Gold Fund slipped another 23% in June, extending this years loss alone to an ugly 65%!


ASIA TODAY: Gold opened to little fanfare first thing this morning, opening the session unchanged from last week. The market traded in a narrow 1334-1335 range for the first hour of trade. Leading up to the Japanese open light offers emerged on the Globex exchange in anticipation of Tocom related selling due to the weak USD/JPY. The arb on Tocom was in fact a little lower than where it was trading last week, and as a result the gold continued its decline, but volumes were notably low, and the market was well and truly in holiday mode. The SGE arb was also softer than it has been in recent times (approx $10 over spot), which also weighed on the yellow metal. On the back of the soft Tocom/SGE arb, and a lack of any real demand seen on Globex, the gold dropped below 1330 triggering light stops on the way down to a low of 1326.00 before finding its feet again. The PM session proved to be a quiet affair, as gold and silver traded sideways without any real flows noted. It is also worth noting that the SHFE copper was down more than 2.50% today, catching up to the LME market as it traded heavily on Friday. Equities had a poor start to the weak, as the Nikkei fell 2.65%, Hang Seng -0.60% and Shanghai A Index -1.3%. Not a great deal on the wires today, Japan's Kuroda stated "BOJ easing isn't targeting exchange rates" and the BOJ "need time to reach 2% inflation target", which pushed the USD/JPY about half a big figure lower, but other than
that a reasonably uneventful start to the week.


EUROPE TODAY: After a slight decline in the Asian market, Gold opened around $1328. The metal traded around this level for a while, before dropping by $5 to hit $1323 which will be the low of the day. Gold then came back to $1326 and stayed at this level waiting for the Italian and US announcements. The Italian numbers on Business Confidence were better than expected (Actual: 91.76 vs Prior: 90.2 vs Survey: 91.0) but did not affect
gold prices. On the other hand, the numbers released on Mortgage Approvals in the UK were below the forecasts (Actual: 57700 vs Prior: 58200 vs Survey: 59700) which probably caused a little nervousness on the market and made the price of the yellow metal abruptly rise by $6 dollars to reach $1332. Since then market went up
progressively to print the high of the day at $1338. That level has been tested several times before gold faced some pressure out of the American session. Prices stabilized after the afternoon fix and gold traded sideways 1330b in a $4 range until the end of the session. Silver opened at $19.80 and did not last long to print the low of the day at 19.70. From there and after the UK announcements, the grey metal rose by 2.65% to print the high at 20.22 as New York came in. Soon profit taking started and the metal lost 40¢. Silver remained stable the afternoon while trading around 19.90. PGM’s had a different day. They started at low levels (Plt: $1428 Pad: $725), remained around there for a while and started to rise progressively. The rise was constant and lasted throughout the second half of the day. Platinum hit the day maximum at $1448 around 18:00 and stabilized above $1440 the evening. Palladium took more than $20 today. The rise started from $722 to reach $746. Palladium remains trading within the $710 - $755
range.

 

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 6th August 2013

MACRO: A reasonably quiet session overnight across all assets. The Aussie regained some ground against the greenback ahead of the the much anticipated Reserve Bank
of Australia's interest rate decision at 2:30pm today. The antipodean currency reached a high of 0.8935 overnight and is trading near this level first thing this morning. The move
higher against the USD came in the face of comments from Fed Reserve member Fisher stating that "unless we see some disturbing data, we should start trimming bond buying in September". Fisher used a Greek myth to highlight his concerns over the central banks effort's to unwind its stimulus program stating that the easy monetary stance has left the banks with a "monetary Gordian knot" to untangle and that policy makers are at a "delicate moment" in considering how and when to rein in the stimulus. He noted that "we need to stop building upon the knot", that the Fed's current rate of MBS purchases actually outpaces the net monthly supply of MBS and that the Federal Reserve now has $3.5 USD trillion in assets on its balance sheet. He went on to say that financial markets have begun to unfortunately "expect the Fed to keep markets levitating indefinitely", whilst the ongoing programs has left the Fed with a "significant slice of these critical markets" and that it needs to find an appropriate way to "gingerly" unwind. Finally he noted that the Fed "must carefully remove the program's pole pin...so as not to prompt market havoc". At the same time as Fisher speaking, the ISM non manufacturing data was released coming in at 56.00, well above market expectations of 53.1 expanding at its fastest pace in 5 months. The report noted that 'Large projects are starting' and 'Volumes are slightly higher, mostly due to housing' providing further evidence that the US is on the road to economic recovery. Meanwhile, the US Treasury 10 year yield closed higher, finishing the session around 2.63% in response to the
stronger than expected data whilst US stocks closed marginally lower. The Dow finished down 46.23 points and the S&P500 closed 2.53 points in the red. European shares were mixed on the day as investors digested the vast amount of earnings reports that have been released recently. Shares in HSBC dropped 4.40% after it's earnings missed market expectations. The Dax closed 0.10% lower and the FTSE lost 0.40%. In the currency markets, GBP put in a good performance reaching a high of 1.5378 as UK services growth accelerated to its fastest pace in more than 6 years, whilst the July PMI for the Euro area was firmer than expected.


PRECIOUS METALS: Overnight, gold was offered on the back of the better than expected ISM figures. The yellow metal briefly traded under 1300, but a lack of any follow through selling prevented the market from any further capitulation. Despite the impressive rally seen on Friday, in which many pundits were calling a technical reversal, the price action has been concerning and apart from Fridays post NFP rally, the metal is trading heavily.
The improved economic conditions seen in Britain and the US are seeing their respective equity markets perform admirably whilst taking away some of the 'risk premium' priced into gold. Trading volumes yesterday were about 50% lower than what has been witnessed over the past few days, whilst vols continue to slide lower across the curve with 1 month closer to 19.5. On the ETF front, the worlds largest gold ETF, SPDR, continues to see outflows, currently holding 29,486,938 ozs (total gold ETF holdings 63,040,234). Gold demand in India has been even further dampened as the Rupee has fallen to an all time low, lessening their purchasing power. Despite the
weakness seen in gold, the PGM's remain resilient as the platinum/gold ration hit its highest level since mid 2011.


ASIA TODAY: The main event today was the RBA's interest rate announcement. The Reserve Bank unsurprisngly decided to cut official rates by 25 basis points indicating increased concerns over the prospects for the national economy. Rates have now fallen 2.25% since the current easing cycle commenced in November 2011 and are now
at all time lows of 2.50%. Recent economic data, had the market braced for the cut as the jobless rate rose over the June and building approvals were sharply lower over the course of the month. Despite the ongoing concerns over the Australian economy, the AUD/USD and Australian swap rates actually lifted after the announcement as the
wording of the RBA's statement appeared less dovish and removed their easing bias. It seems the Reserve Bank are no longer indicating that the inflation outlook may provide them with scope to cut interest rates should it be required, unlike all other monthly statements released so far this year. Gold came under significant pressure today as the New York lows came under serious threat in a thin market, and wave after wave of stop loss selling (albeit light volume) hit the market. Gold traded close to $20 lower on the day in a move that surprised many at the sheer ease of the drop. Some decent physical buying was seen in the mid 90's but relentless selling on Globex pushed the yellow metal to a low of 1388 before any kind of base was found. ETF liquidation continues to hurt the gold, as a further 48,000 ozs was redeemed from the SPDR fund, from Friday to
Monday. If the relentless selling continues throughout the illiquid US/Europe holiday period of August, things could get very ugly...


EUROPE TODAY: London opened while offering the metal. Gold traded then relatively quietly between $1290 and $1295 during the entire morning. The yellow metal printed a high of $1297.20 at lunch time. Gold then started a slow descent until some bid emerged as New York opened. The metal remained relatively weak and fell ahead
the fix to print the low of the day at $1279.20. It ended the day trading mostly below $1285. The day was poor in data, we had the UK Industrial production MoM that came at 1.1% versus expectations at 0.7 and previous at 0%, the UK Manufacturing production MoM that rose by 1.9% versus expectations at 1% previous at -0.8%. In US we
had the Trade Balance released. The deficit narrowed to the lowest level since October 2009. Indeed the gap contracted by 22.4% to $34.2 billion from a revised $44.1 billion in May as crude oil imports declined and US companies exported more products. Silver opened at $19.65 in the hollow of the wave and started to slowly rise fairly uniformly. Market went up to $19.80 and stayed around there for a while. Later in the day the grey metal started its fall and went to $19.70 before dropping abruptly twice by 10¢ to reach the low of $19.50. It recovered a little bit after gold fixed but it did not last long before it drifted slowly lower to finally reach the lows after the close. PGM’s were under pressure too and had a similar day to the other precious metals. The white metals remained
stable during the morning, pressure grown after lunch time. Platinum opened at $1440, hit the high at $1449 and fell by $25 as profit taking started. The metal traded around $1430 the evening. Compared to platinum, palladium’s slump was softer. The metal opened just below $730 and lost more or less $10 along the day.

 

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT: Wednesday 31th July 2013

MACRO: Markets were reasonably constrained ahead of the much anticipated FOMC decision released early tomorrow morning Sydney time. US consumer confidence for July fell to 80.30 from a revised 82.10 in June (despite this, it remains near five year highs) however on the flip side the S&P/Case Shiller rose by another 1.05% in May taking annual growth to 12.20% - which is its largest rise in 7 months. Interestingly, the move in the USD was relatively positive and there was a bit of market chatter around that the move was also bolstered by comments from Obama which highlighted that he's expanding efforts to attract foreign companies to the US. The under pressure AUD,

Read more: DAILY REPORT: Wednesday 31th July 2013

DAILY REPORT : Wednesday 24th July 2013

MACRO: The USD continued its weak tone overnight as risk appetite remained subdued across most markets. The limited data that was released was neither here nor there and had little impact on financial markets. The Richmond Fed manufacturing index was marginally worse than expected, but that was about it for the New York session in terms of market moving announcements. In Europe, surprising very few people, there was a delay in releasing Greece's next bailout tranche as the European Union awaits confirmation that the required reform measures have been implemented. US Treasuries fell whilst US stocks were mixed on the day with the Dow Jones finishing the session up 22 points (another record close) whilst the S&P500 closed 3.14 points
in the red. Most other major indices were stuck within tight ranges without any clear and significant catalyst to move the markets. The currency markets were also reasonably
lackluster overnight, but the AUD, EUR and GBP look as though they are set for another leg higher against the the USD. The AUD is flirting with the 0.9300 handle once again
whilst the EUR continues to squeeze short positions trading comfortably above 1.3200. With the EUR hitting a low of 1.2755 earlier this month, it has impressively pushed higher against the greenback mainly on the back of a less hawkish monetary policy stance by Fed Chairman Bernanke and excessive short positioning. With dips becoming shallower and US short and medium term rates being increasingly capped, the market looks set to continue its ascent.


PRECIOUS: Gold had another positive night as the yellow metal touched a high of 1346 in late New York trade. The metal has closed above the 50 day moving average for the
second consecutive day adding positive sentiment with the likelihood of further short covering and momentum buying looking more likely in the short term. With Comex option expiry tomorrow, the market isn't expecting any major moves up until then. Yesterday, London started the session on the offer, touching a low of 1326.50, but for
the rest of the session the market was happy to buy into any weakness and the metal drifted back up to the mid 30's where another wave of buying (2000+ lots on Globex), saw the market surge through the previous days highs, triggering stops on the way up. There was market chatter that the Gold Bugs Index (HUI Index) was the reason
behind theMACRO: buying interest, as the index finished the day up 2.5%. For those out there that are not aware of the HUI Index, it is a basket of unhedged mining stocks (such as Newmont, Barrick and Gold Corp). Adding to gold's bullishness is that a number of key technical levels have been broken on the topside as mentioned in previous days, and as the Gold ETF selling seems to have abated, for the time being at least, the market looks set for further gains.


ASIA TODAY: As for data releases today, the Australian CPI and Chinese HSBC flash PMI were the main attractions. Starting with the CPI, the figure was lower than market expectations, coming in at 0.40%, whilst annual growth stepped down from 2.50% to 2.40%. The more important monetary policy measure of 'underlying inflation' printed marginally higher than expected at 0.60% in Q2 following Q1's reading of 0.40%. From an interest rate perspective, the latest CPI means that risks remain firmly towards another cut. As for the HSBC Chinese July PMI, the number came in at 47.7, which is the lowest level since August 2012. On the releases of the CPI figure, the AUD skyrocketed above the 0.9300 resistance touching 0.9319, but a couple of minutes later, the softer than expected PMI out of China, saw the antipodean currency plummet close to 80 pips in a matter of moments in what proved to be a volatile morning for the currency. The market settled around 0.9250-60 level for the remainder of the day Gold and silver traded in reasonably tight ranges over the course of the day, mainly trading in line with the USD. The market traded sideways for the first 3 hours of trade, but got a shot in the arm once Australian CPI was released jumping to the days highs of 1346.50. The run higher was short lived though as traders offered the metal back down on the back of the weaker than expected Chinese PMI. Over the course of the afternoon, the market
continued to edge lower as longs bailed, and profit taking emerged, after gold's impressive run higher this week. The market briefly traded sub 1340, but with speculators still looking to trade on the long side, the yellow metal couldn't gain any downside momentum and the market finished the day at 1341.50/00 looking set for further gains. EUROPE TODAY: Gold traded in a little $5 range this morning in Europe while testing $1339 support several time. As New York opened offers pulled the yellow metal below the previous key level. The MBA Mortgage Applications declined by 1.2%, that is a is a sixth straight week fall as borrowing costs hovered close to a twoyear
high. Prices drifted slowly lower with a spike to $1339 just before the fixing time. The New Home Sales number came positive with 497k added compared to the prior 476k, consensus was estimating number to be 484k. The fixing lasted quite a long time and resulted in a loss of more than 5 dollars to finally hit a couple of minutes later $1331. Prices continued to lower and fell brutally from $1328 down to $1317. The metal remained week after the close and even plunged to $1313. Yesterday’s break of $1340 has so not been confirmed and gold may test soon $1300 before a bounce. In Europe we also had some number released as the German PMI manufacturing that came at 50.3 better than expected at 49.20 or prior at 48.6. Silver had a similar day as Gold but with more sustained and supported movements. It opened around $20.35 on the higher trend and went up to $20.44 before falling down to $20.32. After a quieter time around noon the grey metal rose again to reach the high of the day just over $20.45. From that point it went progressively down to $20.18 and has been pulled to 20’s following gold. We remain a little cautious on silver even if $19.80 should supportive with an uptrend support starting June 28th 2013. Concerning Platinum the day was much more interesting. It opened stably between $1440 and $1445 and traded in that range for a while. The white metal tested then the Asian high at $1450 unsuccessfully and so several times. Finally in the early afternoon when Gold and Silver began their descent, Platinum started a drastic rise to get from $1443 to $1463 in around one hour. It then went down to $1453 before rising again to $1460. The metal finally fell back the morning levels erasing the afternoon move. We can notice more or less the same movements concerning Palladium, except that it has been more stable earlier today (between $736 and $740) and the afternoon rise was proportionally even more severe than for Platinum. The metal managed to remain near the high with a strong resistance still at $750.

 

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Monday 5th August 2013

MACRO: The USD is likely to consolidate this week. The July non-farm payrolls numbers released at the end of last week disappointed expectations, weighing on long-term US
bond yields and the USD across the board. Payrolls increased by 162,000 (+185,000 expected) in the month, and there was a minor downward revisions to the previous
month (June revised down -7k). The 0.2% dip in the US unemployment rate to 7.4% (7.5% expected), a low since December 2008, was again driven primarily by a fall in the
participation rate as opposed to any significant structural changes. While the July data disappointed, the momentum in the US labour market remains positive. The 6-month
moving average in payrolls is now 200,000, while the 12- month moving average is at its highest level since March 2012. Nevertheless, the slightly softer payrolls outcome is
likely to keep questions over when the Fed will commence a tapering of asset purchases alive, and this should act as a USD headwind. Most major banks economics teams have September pencilled in for a start date for tapering but the risk resides with a later start date. Irrespective, almost all of these economists still expect tapering to commence in 2013. The only US data point of note this week is the July ISM non-manufacturing index due for release today and is expected to improve modestly to 53.1 (52.2 prior). Elsewhere a busy week for Aussie data with June retail sales released today and expected to come in a little firmer which could pave the way for a 25 basis point cut at tomorrow's RBA meeting. In the UK, at a press conference accompanying the the bank of England quarterly inflation report on Thursday, Governor Mark Carney will likely announce an explicit 'forward guidance'.


PRECIOUS: Leading into Friday's payroll data the yellow metal remained fairly jumpy between $1285-1290 being weighed down by the USD which persistently crept higher. Once the weaker than expected figure was released all the metals shot aggressively higher. Leading up to the NFP's we had ADP employment (+200k), GDP (+1.7%),
Jobless claims (326k - a 5 year low) and the ISM manufacturing data (55.4) all extremely positive figures. I think in lieu of this the market had got itself a little short gold throughout the week, expecting a positive number on Friday. Instead there was carnage as rapid short covering propelled the metal $30+ higher to peak at $1318.50. After this run higher we dipped back under $1310 briefly with the gold supported into the close and rounded out the week at $1313. Silver too had a good run higher again running into stubborn resistance in the $20.20-20.50 zone and sharply reversing after hitting the peak. In the ETF space despite gold running higher on Friday investors took it as a good opportunity to liquidate further with the SPDR Gold trust realising 77k oz of outflows. COTR figures showed funds lowered bullish gold bets for the first time in 5 weeks due to signs of accelerating U.S. growth. Money managers cut their net-long positions by 6.5 % to 65,517 futures and options contracts. Holdings of short contracts rose 6.8 %, while elsewhere investors cut wagers on higher crude prices for the first time in a month and more than doubled bearish bets on copper. Technically the weekly close above $1300 is positive for the yellow metal and with less in the way of data this week, I would not be surprised to see us consolidate between $1300-1350 in the short term, especially considering that the northern hemisphere summer holidays roll on.


ASIA TODAY: NZD/USD was talk of the town this morning because of a New Zealand whey contamination scare, which could have trade impacts on the NZ dairy sector. Approximately 38 tones of whey product produced by Fonterra have tested positive for a bacterium that can cause botulism. It is reported that 8 customers in 7 countries, including NZ, have used the whey to make 870 tones of consumer product. NZ dairy exports total $11.5 billion (12 months to June 2013), in volume terms 2.76 million tones. So far, China and Russia have indicated a temporary ban on NZ dairy products. The extent of any long-term impacts will partly depend on Fonterra’s ability to reassure customers and consumers over the quality and safety of NZ food exports. The NZD was given to 0.7693 (-1.8%) however quickly came back to trade around the 0.7750-70 area.
The metals opened in a fairly subdued manner this morning despite being $30 from where Asia saw it on Friday. We think it was more caution that kept flows light throughout the morning and price action fairly stable through $1312-1315. Tocom had no real interest either way at the open whilst the Chinese were modest buyers during their morning - suggesting perhaps they may still be a little short from last week? The SGE arb remained buoyant above $20 over the spot price today, spurred along by the weaker USD. This also helped spot briefly edge above last Friday's high, which triggered some light stops and pushed the spot price to a $1320.20 peak. Plenty of sellers up there however were quick to pounce and we did not sit long there. Silver traded towards $20.00 but continued to run into offers there and the PGM's were fairly uneventful throughout the day both fairly flat. Data today saw Aussie retail sales come in weaker than expected at flat (+0.4% expected, +0.2% revised up prior), which kept
AUD under pressure below 0.8900. Elsewhere Chinese HSBC/Markit services PMI was unchanged at 51.3 and had little impact upon markets. Elsewhere the Nikkei currently sits at -1.4%, Shanghai Composite +0.65% and HangSeng +0.2%. Crude is a little firmer at $107.35 (+0.4%) and the base metals were slightly softer across the
board.


EUROPE TODAY: This morning gold opened at the high of the day at $1318.00. The yellow metal started immediately a slow drift to $1305 following the weaker EUR and so despite a better Eurozone PMI services and a slightly better PMI Composite. The European Retail Sales MoM came lower than previous at 1% but better than the expected -0.7% with a decrease of -0.5%. The UK PMI services came at 60.2 versus prior at 56.9 and expectation at 57.4. New York opened around 1305 with some bids. The metal reached back 1310 before the ISM Non-manufacturing index rose to 56.0 from 52.2, that is the fastest pace in five months. On the positive US data gold fell and pressure increased as the metal approached $1300. Gold printed a low at $1297.60 before crossing upwards $1300. Silver also opened at the peak of the day ($20.00) and followed gold on the descent. The grey metal printed the low of $19.74 after New York opened and recovered to end the day while trading sideways $19.75 in a 10¢ range.
PGM’s had a completely different day than gold and silver as prices ended in a positive territory. Platinum opened around $1450 and rose to $1455 before profit taking pulled it to $1445. New York opened following the lower move and the white metal printed the low at $1440. Bids did not last long to appear and the white metal managed to close above the opening price but while being nervous. Palladium opened at $731 and stayed stable for a while. It rose to $735.50 went down to $728 before recovering and trading around $735.

 

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 30th July 2013

MACRO: Financial markets were quiet overnight ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting later this week and no major economic news out. Pending home sales were higher than expected year on year (pending homes sales are up a healthy 10% from a year ago) but month on month figures were slightly lower than market expectations whilst the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey was marginally softer, slipping from 6.5 to 4.4 in July, but nevertheless remains near 12 month highs. European shares edged marginally higher on Monday, on news that Greece will receive the next tranche of aid from the IMF, which will take it through to the German election. The European market was also buoyed by a number of mergers and takeovers, however banking stocks offset these gains on expectations of 5 billion pound rights issues at Barclays (-3.45%) to meet tougher UK rules on capital requirements. The STOXX 600 European Banking Index fell 0.60%, whilst the Dax closed the day up 0.20% and the FTSE +0.10%. In the US, equity markets finished lower as investors were cautious about taking on any more risk ahead of the FOMC. The Dow finished the session 37 points in the red. Meanwhile the US 10 year treasury yield traded at its highest level in more than two weeks. The currencies were also muted ahead of the Fed, as the AUD continued to trade around the 0.9200 level which is where the market opened this morning. The US Dollar seems to have rebounded from its five week low against a basket of currencies, as the EUR hit early highs just shy of 1.3300, then easing towards 1.3240, before finishing the US session
at 1.3265. The data calendar remains reasonably light today with the Australian building approvals and Reserve Bank of Australia's chairman Stevens speaking then main events.


PRECIOUS METALS: A rather impressive short covering rally early London yesterday saw the yellow metal trade as as high 1338.50 in the first couple of hours of trade, but that was certainly the highlight of the day, as the market was happy to offer the metal down to 1330 which is where it remained right up until the NY close. Technically gold seems to be trading on the heavy side, as the 55 day moving average continues to pose significant resistance. It is currently sitting at 1342.70 GCZ3, and for the market to gain any upside momentum it needs to break through and close above this level. Above 1342.70 , key resistance is at $1370.59, which is the 62% May/June sell off, whilst support is at 1309.07 ahead of 1264.57. The silver is also trading on the heavy side, as
momentum as indicators all point southwards for the the grey metal. The major level on the downside to watch out for is the June low of $18.23. There is market chatter that there are huge stop loss sell orders beneath, and if it were to break the market could easily drop 5-10% in the blink of an eye. In other commodity news, the news that JP Morgan is exiting physical commodities trading is still sending shockwaves throughout the market. After spending more than 5 years and billions of dollars building their
business, JPM said they would be pursuing "strategic alternatives" for its trading assets. Due to tougher regulation and increasing capital levels, JPM joins other banking behemoths such as Deutsche and Barclays in a commodity market exodus. Here is the link to the full article on cnbc's website: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100900230


ASIA TODAY: Asian trade followed on from New York, where there was little interest. The market seemed to be trading in holiday mode and awaiting the key US announcements later in the week. For the first two hours of trade leading up to the Japanese open the market traded sideways between 1324.50-1326. Both Tocom and the Shanghai gold exchange opened reasonably bid which as a result saw gold creep a few dollars higher, but after the initial interest, gold went back to sleep and hardly moved a spread for the remainder of the session. The main interest throughout the day was well and truly on the Australian Dollar, as the antipodean currency fell more than 150 pips over the course of the day! Starting things off was the releases of the building approvals which fell 6.90% from last month and 13.0% from a year ago. It is typically a volatile number, but it doesn't help that the previous month had been revised lower as well, making it two consecutive monthly declines. As a result the AUD fell about half a big figure from 0.9200 to 0.9150. An hour or so later, RBA chairman, Glen Stevens was on the wires, making a number of dovish comments which can be seen below, sending the AUD into free fall:

*STEVENS: NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT RUNNING OUT OF RATE AMMUNITION
*STEVENS: NOT ADVERSE TO CONSIDERING MACRO-PRUDENTIAL TOOLS
*STEVENS: DOESN'T SEE NEED FOR MACRO-PRUDENTIAL TOOLS AT MOMENT
*STEVENS: SAYS NORMAL LEVEL OF RATES COULD BE LOWER THAN IN PAST


The key for the AUD, is the low reached on the 12th July, at 0.8999 (last 0.9060). If the market breaches this, the AUD could be heading to 87 cents which will at least provide some relief to the countries under-siege miners.


EUROPE TODAY: London session opened around $1328 while offering the metal. Gold fell to $1324 in a first step and lost suddenly $6 on lack of interest to hit $1318.50. The precious metal recovered slowly until New York opened. The American session opened nervously and printed the high of the day at 1329.10 after an initial fall. Ahead of the fix, gold revisited the lows of the day and printed a min at 1317.50. The US July consumer
confidence that fell to 80.3 vs 82.1 help the yellow metal to reach back 1324. Since then gold traded mostly above that level. The yellow metal traded nervously today but within a little $10 range, we guess most of the participants are waiting for tomorrow’s FOMC Rate decision. Current movements are explained by a small volume of daily buys
and sales, therefore we can notice that there are no sustained movements. Silver also opened at $19.85 on the down side. It first went down slowly, before falling sharply to hit the day minimum at $19.55. The grey metal managed to come back to $19.65 and traded in a $0.05 range for more than 3 hours. After lunch time, silver rose to $19.75 in a first step, before reaching the day maximum at $19.88 once New York opened. The metal ended the session trading sideways 19.75 in a straightening range. Concerning PGM’s, after yesterday’s rise we were given a less exciting day today. Platinum opened at $1440 and quickly dropped to $1430.The white metal reached back the morning’s level before another pull sent market near the low. Later platinum rose again but never completely recovered. Palladium on the other hand started the day around $742 and stayed steady for a while. Pressure emerged once New York joined the session sending the metal price to $730. In the late afternoon palladium printed a low at $722
and ended the day just below $730.

 

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 23rd July 2013

MACRO: EUR/USD drifted higher overnight, in line with the strong rally in the Portuguese bond market. Portuguese yields were down by 40-60bpts between 2 and 10-years. The
announcement over the weekend by the Portuguese President that he will support the current coalition government until its term ends in 2015 removed the near term political uncertainty generated by concerns an early election could be called. That being said, a key test will come in September when the government is looking to pass its 2014 budget. While the short-term uncertainty has eased, over the medium-term, there are questions around Portugal’s ability to retain market access. Portugal’s current EU/IMF
assistance program runs until mid-2014. Given the ongoing recession and high financing costs, another assistance program for Portugal (such as a precautionary credit line via the ESM to help facilitate a smooth re-entry to the market) appears a growing possibility. The Japanese Yen sustained sweeping gains yesterday after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s re-election triggered speculation that further policy measures
may be needed to weaken the currency. The Canadian Dollar reached the highest level in a month before a government report due today that is forecast to show retail sales accelerated in May. The Pound strengthened for a fifth day against the dollar, the longest winning streak in almost three months, after Prime Minister David Cameron said an
improving economy may allow the government to cut taxes. Finally the dollar suffered across the board with mildly disappointing existing home sales at 5.08M (5.26M
expected, 5.18M prior) or -1.2% mom (+1.5% expected, +4.2% prior), as well as some position squaring driving the sell-off.

PRECIOUS: With the rest of the markets fairly subdued overnight gold was the real shining light up +3.0% on the day and breaking through a number of key technical levels. The move began yesterday morning in Asia shortly after the Ecomex open in very thin conditions to break through key psychological and downtrend resistance at $1300 and jump $20 instantly on this break. As London came in it was clear that there was still a lot of short positioning to unwind with very little seen in terms of any pullbacks. This combined with momentum traders getting on board pushed the gold higher right up to the Comex floor close ($1338.50), easing moderately in the twilight hours to round out the day at $1335. Aside from the clear break of $1300, the metal also managed a close above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the April - June sell-off ($1335.15) as well as the 50 dma ($1330.50) - chart attached. Order flows and price action also do not so far suggest we have hit an interim top, so it will be interesting to see what Asia has in store today. Silver also had a strong rally overnight up +5.5% intra-day and finally breaking and closing above $20.20 - a level that has stubbornly held for just over a month. Platinum and palladium resumed their bullish run that began in early July with the latter approaching major downtrend resistance at $763.

ASIA TODAY: The market opened today with a lot less flair today, but there were still plenty of Asian buy orders and interest in the low $1330's. Initially some light profit taking was seen from fast money types and took us a little lower into the Tocom open. The market looked a little soft following the Tocom open but a very large iceberg
order in Comex Aug gold at $1332.70 ($1333.60 spot equivalent) held the market. Some 800+ lots traded there before the Chinese opened up and lifted us higher. Silver could not sustain yesterday's gains and fell victim to Chinese producer liquidation, a theme that has been prevalent over the last few months. The greenback was marginally softer throughout the day today which helped to keep gold bid as the afternoon progressed. Elsewhere the equities were firmer, at time of writing Nikkei +0.50%, Shanghai composite +2.2%, Hang Seng +2.0% and ASX200 +0.2%. Crude was fairly flat and base metals were modestly higher. Not a great deal today on the economic calendar, with US Richmond Fed release and Euro-zone consumer confidence figures the only things of
note. Have a good day ahead.
EUROPE TODAY: After the rally from yesterday, precious metals looked hesitant today. The market opened with a severe drop which brought us from $1334.50 to $1329.50. Then it went up, down, and up again to reach the day’s high at $1337. From that point and without any particular reason the price went down progressively to touch the lowest level of the day at $1326.5 around midday. Market remained at these levels for a while until the opening of the US market which allowed prices to start rising again. Gold oscillated then between $1328 and $1337. Again this has been a particularly quiet day concerning gold. The next step for the yellow metal was to break the $1340.00 resistance which it did after the close. Indeed market jumped from $1335 to $1345 on a single move. Silver went down most of the day without particularly large fluctuations. The grey metal opened at $20.40 which was the highest point of the day then slowly went down to $20.12 which was the minimum and finally reversed to reach a stable level between $20.30 and $20.40. Silver continues to look weak however the potential for another short-covering rally remains. Platinum lower during the European morning session but has been able to entirely recover once New York joined the session. The white metal started trading at $1445to print a low near $1424 and then came back during the afternoon to reach again the opening levels. $1450 is clearly the firstt resistance with a support at $1429. Palladium had approximately the same day as platinum, except it didn’t reach back to the opening levels. Right after London opened the metal lost more than $15 to print the low of the day at $732. XPD reach back $742 but could find more bids and remained trading sideways $740 in a little range.
Tomorrow we look forward to some announcements which could have an impact on the price of precious metals. In Europe we expect news concerning the price manufacturing index, in the UK concerning the industrial trends and in the US concerning the New Home Sales.

 

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.