DAILY REPORT : Monday 05 Feb 2018

MACRO: Jobs data released out of the U.S. on Friday showed an addition of 200k payrolls during January (exp: 180k) to follow an upwardly revised 160k the month prior. The jobless rate held at 4.1% to match the lowest rate since 2000, while average hourly earnings increased +0.3% MoM (exp: +0.2%) to see the annualised figure to +2.9% YoY, the strongest print since 2009. Factory orders in the U.S. outpaced expectations during December to increase +1.7% (exp: +1.5%) from an upwardly revised +1.7% during November (prev: +1.3%). U.S. equities tumbled on Friday to continue recent weakness, seeing the DJIA underneath 26,000 to mark the worst points decline in a session since December 2008. The bourse ended the session -2.54% lower at 25,520.96 points to book a -4.1% weekly decline, while the S&P 500 saw all eleven components end in negative territory as the bourse ended -2.12% down on the session and -3.9% on the week. The greenback saw broad-based gains on Friday following the U.S. jobs data, with the DXY spiking +0.65%.

PRECIOUS: Following Friday's volatile U.S. session, bullion held a relatively narrow range to start the week in Asia as the recent dollar rally took time out to consolidate gains. The yellow metal handed back around -1.2% last week after breaking to Friday's low of USD $1,327.50, testing top-side resistance at USD $1,350 on multiple occasions over the week, however sent ultimately lower at the hands of a bid dollar and higher treasury yields. Early session weakness on Monday around the Chinese open saw bullion briefly test underneath USD $1,330 with little change to the on-shore premium, while afternoon pricing saw a modest pick-up in interest, however still hold rangebound. Vols have firmed marginally, however continue to remain low with 1m sitting around 10.3, 3m at 10.8 and 1 year just over 12. ETF's reported out-flows on Friday of around 100k ounces, while the latest COTR indicates a lightening in gold positioning as longs head for the exit. Expect broad support underneath USD $1,330 to USD $1,325 and at USD $1,315 below this, while resistance cuts toward USD $1,345.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

 

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 30 Jan 2018

MACRO: U.S. personal income rose +0.4% MoM during December (exp: +0.3%) to follow a +0.3% increase during November, while personal spending increased +0.4% to be in-line with expectations. The robust print however came at the cost of savings, which fell to a 10-year low of 2.4% from 2.5% previously. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures price index (core PCE) increased +0.2% MoM (exp: +0.2%) to see the annualised figure hold at +1.5% YoY during December. The Dallas Fed manufacturing index of general business activity jumped to 33.4 during January (exp: 25.4) from a 29.7 read the month prior. January’s gains were largely attributed to strength across shipments (27.1 from 21.5 previously) and prices received (22.3 from 17.9 previously). U.S. equity markets tumbled on Monday as yields on the benchmark 10-year treasury note jumped above 2.7% to mark the highest level since April 2014. The DJIA sunk -0.67% to 26,438.48 points as Caterpillar Inc. (-2.7%) and Apple Inc. (-2.07%) saw the bourse to its worst single session result since September, while the broader S&P 500 saw heavy trade to energy stocks (-1.5%) also take the bourse -0.67% lower to 2,853.53 points. The Nasdaq composite didn’t escape unscathed either, shedding -0.57% to 7,466.505 points. Wall street’s ‘fear gauge’ the VIX jumped to the highest level in 5 months on Monday, surging nearly 25% to 13.84. Oil futures pulled back from recent highs on Monday, with the U.S. benchmark WTI handing back -0.9% following an increase in the domestic oil rig count by 12 to 759.

PRECIOUS: Higher treasury yields underpinned a bid session for the greenback on Monday, seeing the DXY around +0.33% higher to weigh upon bullion. Early Asian session weakness was compounded in late European / early U.S. trade as the yellow metal declined through USD $1,345, before further extending underneath USD $1,340 late in trade. CFTC positioning continues to increase, however the pace at which these increases are occurring has slowed. ETF demand remains elevated with further inflows recorded on Monday (holding +1.4% YTD), while vols remain firm out to 3m, with 1m extending to 10.25. Following a sluggish start, interest through Comex (J8 now most active) picked up on the break below New York’s low print, as dollar driven weakness provided an opportunity for bargain hunters. We continue to see interest on dips, particularly around the fib retracement level (Dec low – Jan high) of USD $1,335.50, however should further weakness become evident we are likely to stretch long positioning and could see an extension toward USD $1,325 or even USD $1,315. Although the FOMC are not expected to hike rates this week (rather in March) it will be interesting to see what language the committee uses in their statement, with many expecting a more hawkish bias that could give the greenback a boost and keep bullion under pressure. Silver continues to head toward another test of USD $17 following Monday’s -1.6% move. The grey metal should see broad interest around USD $17.10 - $17.15, however may be setting up for a move through the figure like we saw only last week. After a break of the important USD $1,000 level in New York (only to recover back through the figure), platinum has once again succumbed to selling pressure to trade sub USD $1,000 during Asia today, while palladium has been offered throughout afternoon pricing but thus far has held the New York low print.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 23 Jan 2018

MACRO: US President Donald Trump signed a short term spending bill that will ensure the government is funded through to 8th February. Senate Democrats agreed to support the legislation in exchange for the promise of a future Senate vote on immigration, US equities pared early losses to finish ahead on the news that the Senate had voted 81-18 to pass the funding bill. The three major bourses posted fresh record highs, the Dow added 142.88 points, or 0.55%, to 26,214.60; the S&P 500 put on 22.67 points, or 0.81% to 2,832.97, while the Nasdaq climbed 71.652 points, or 0.98%, to 7,408.032. There were big wins for telecoms (+2.35%), energy (+2.10%), while materials (-0.21%) led the laggards. European shares were mixed, the EuroSTOXX rose 1.23 points, or 0.31%, to 402.11, the German DAX gained 29.24 points, or 0.22%, to 13,463.69, and the London FTSE 100 shed 15.35 points, or 0.20%, to 7,715.44. In the currencies, the US dollar index eased 0.18% to 90.407, the EUR traded up to 1.2263, while USD/JPY was as high as 111.18. US treasury yields were mixed, the 2 year yield rose 0.03 bps to 2.0650% and the 10 year yield lost 0.17 bps to 2.6575%. In commodities news, oil prices were higher as Brent added 0.76% to $69.13 and WTI firmed 0.19% to $63.49. Base metals were mostly higher, with aluminium (+1.31%) the biggest mover. In US economic data, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to 0.27 in December from a downwardly revised 0.11 in November. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei is at +0.90, the Shanghai composite is at +0.64%, the Hang Seng at +1.14%, and the ASX S&P 200 is at +0.75%. Tonight we have the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index and Consumer Confidence (Flash) out of the Eurozone.

PRECIOUS: Range-bound session for the precious as investors digest the news out of Washington. Gold opened at $1334 in Asia before dipping to hover around $1330-32 through the afternoon. The SGE premium was elevated at $8-9 though this only translated to fairly modest buying out of China. The market dipped below $1330 just prior to the London open but quickly recovered to trade around $1331-3 through the AM session. News of the government shutdown ending sent USD/JPY rocketing through 111 in early NY hours, but the yellow metal managed to hold well around $1331 and finish up at $1335. Silver had a slightly choppy run to finish right on the psychological $17 level. The biggest moves of the day were in the PGMs, platinum was dumped through the $1000 level during NY hours to a close at $996, while palladium was sold heavily to the days low of $1084 before an impressive bounce up to $1095. The Philadelphia gold and silver index added 0.38%. The SPDR gold trust holdings were unchanged at 846.67 metric tonnes. In todays trading, gold picked up a few dollars off the open to trade around $1335-36, with the SGE premium is around $7-8 over loco London. The yellow metal is at $1335.80 as I write. Silver is trading back above the $17 level, the grey metal sits at $17.01 as I write. PGMs are flat. Gold should see first support level at overnight low of $1331, with initial resistance expected at the recent highs of $1343 closely followed by the psychological $1350 mark, a consolidation above that level could be the signal for a push higher.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Friday 02 Feb 2018

MACRO: US equities were mixed in a choppy session sandwiched between Wednesday's FOMC announcement and tonight's non-farm payroll data. The Dow added 37.32 points, or 0.14%, to 26,186.71; the S&P 500 edged lower 1.83 points, or 0.06% to 2,821.98, while the Nasdaq fell 25.619 points, or 0.35%, to 7,385.863. There were wins for telecoms (+2.48%) and energy (+1.10%) while REITs (-1.86%) and utilities (-1.58%) weighed on the markets. European shares were lower as investors remain nervous that the increase in bond yields will continue, the EuroSTOXX lost 1.97 points, or 0.57%, to 393.49, the German DAX dropped 185.58 points, or 1.41%, to 13,003.90, and the London FTSE 100 shed 43.16 points, or 0.57%, to 7,490.39. In the currencies, the US dollar index lost 0.57% to 88.629, the EUR traded up to 1.2517, while USD/JPY was as high as 109.72 before pulling back. The sell off in US bonds continued with the market still feeling the effects of the Fed's mildly hawkish statement on Wednesday. The 2 year yield rose 1.83 bps to 2.1589% and the 10 year yield climbed 7.71 bps to 2.7821%, posting a fresh 4 year high in the process. In commodities news, oil markets were given a boost as Goldman Sachs released a report revising it's price forecast significantly higher. The 3 month forecast for Brent is now $75 and the 6 month has been revised to $82.50, the basis of their revision is the view that the rebalancing of the oversupplied oil market already occurred in late 2017, some 6 months earlier than originally expected. Brent rallied 1.31% to $69.79 while WTI rose 1.93% to $65.98. Base metals were broadly higher, with nickel (+1.84%) leading the way. In US economic data, fourth quarter productivity fell at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.1%, the first quarterly decline since 2016. Unit labour costs increased at a 2% rate for the quarter. For the full calendar year, productivity rose 1.2%. The ISM manufacturing index fell to 59.1% in January from 59.3% in December; new orders, production, and employment fell, while the prices paid index posted a strong gain. The Markit manufacturing PMI rose to 55.5 in January from 55.1 in December, remaining unchanged from the flash estimate. Initial jobless claims fell by 1k to 230k in the week ending January 27. Continuing jobless claims increased by 13k to 1.95M. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei is at -1.01, the Shanghai composite is at -0.41%, the Hang Seng at +0.13%, and the ASX S&P 200 is at +0.40%. Tonight investors attention will be focused on the non-farm payroll numbers out of the US, along with the unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, consumer sentiment index, and factory orders; we will also see PPI data out of the Eurozone.

PRECIOUS: Strong finish for the precious as rising US treasury yields cause jitters elsewhere in the markets. Gold opened at $1344 and after an early pop over $1346 settled around $1342-44 with the SGE premium a touch softer at $8. The market started to look soggy late in the day as USD/JPY started to tick up and the EUR dipped below 1.24, ending up at $1338 by the time London came in. Gold looked tired during the London AM session, printing the days low of $1337 just before NY open. Things took a turn from here as a sell off in USD began to pick up steam, the yellow metal climbed steadily higher through NY hours, eventually making a move on the $1350 resistance level as the EUR traded back above 1.25. Resting orders at this psychological level capped the market and gold finished the session at $1348. Silver traded quickly to the days high $17.35 which seemed to trigger some profit taking, the grey metal ultimately closing lower at $17.18. Platinum was able to halt it's recent slide, finishing in the black at $1040 despite posting a 6 week low $1014 during Asian hours. Platinum found enough interest to close back above the $1000 level. The Philadelphia gold and silver index slipped 0.7%. The SPDR Gold trust physical holdings were unchanged 841.35 metric tonnes. In today's trading, gold made a couple of attempts on $1350 but has been ultimately range-bound, the SGE premium is constant at $8 over loco London. The yellow metal is at $1347.90 as I write. Silver has been quiet, the grey metal is flat at $17.20 as I write. Little action in the PGMs either, platinum is looking a little softer but has held above the $1000 level thus far. All eyes on the NFP numbers tonight, a figure outside the consensus forecast could rattle the markets where volatility has already crept in over the last week or so. Gold is close to the first resistance at $1350 and the Jan high $1365 should be the target after that. On the downside, the metal should find first support at the weeks low of $1334.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Monday 29 Jan 2018

MACRO: U.S. government data released on Friday showed GDP increased at an annual rate of +2.6% QoQ during Q4 2017, down on estimates centred around 3.0% and Q3’s +3.2% result. Underpinning the figure was a tax-cut driven increase in business equipment investment, jumping at an +11.4% annualised rate. Friday’s report also showed personal consumption at a +3.8% QoQ annualised to follow +2.2% previously. Durable goods orders in the U.S. spiked +2.9% MoM during December (exp: +0.8%) to follow an upwardly revised +1.7% gain the month prior (prev: +1.3%). The headline figure was driven by a +55.3% surge in orders for military aircraft, while the closely watched non-defence capital goods print slipped to -0.3% (exp: +0.6%) from a +0.2% increase previously. Each of the major U.S. stock benchmarks finished at record closing levels on Friday, buoyed by the robust GDP print to book a fourth consecutive weekly advance. The DJIA rose +0.85% to 26,616.71 points, while strength across healthcare (+2.17%) helped to see the S&P 500 +1.18% higher to 2,872.87 points and the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite jumped +1.28% to 7,505.772 points. The greenback remained under pressure on Friday, sliding against majors to see the DXY index -0.33% down on the session.

PRECIOUS: Bullion opened into dollar headwinds during Asian trade on Monday, seeing an initial bid tone extinguished, and with it, sinking below the USD $1,350 pivot point. Soft physical demand and an offered bias in early Chinese trade saw the metal as low as USD $1,346.50, however notably the on-shore premium in Shanghai remained robust toward USD $8 over loco London bullion. Into month-end expect the yellow metal to trade heavily around USD $1,350 in lieu of any major dollar moves, however any dips toward USD $1,340 - $1,345 are likely to garner solid interest to restrict further downside moves. Silver was unable to recapture USD $17.50 during Asian trade today and struggled to find interest throughout the afternoon, while platinum remains under pressure and heads closer toward USD $1,000 and palladium hold below USD $1,100 following Friday's weakness. Data today includes U.S. personal income/spending as we head toward Wednesday's FOMC meeting/announcement and Friday's Nonfarm payroll print.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Monday 22 Jan 2018

MACRO: U.S. Senators have failed to agree to a funding bill, forcing a government shutdown for the first time since the 2013 closure which lasted 16 days. Republicans and Democrats are divided over immigration policy, notably Democrats are insisting any spending bill include protections for the near 700,000 young immigrants known as ‘Dreamers’ that are facing deportation. The Senate are scheduled to vote again at 1:00 am (local time) on Monday on a bill to fund the Government through to February 8. In the past markets have tended to react mildly to shutdowns, and thus far on Monday U.S. equity futures are a touch softer, while the DXY has recovered after early session weakness. The University of Michigan’s survey of consumer sentiment declined to 94.4 in January (exp: 97.0) to follow December’s 95.9. Equity markets in the U.S. ended trade higher on Friday as optimism surrounding corporate earning outweighed the potential for a Government shutdown. The DJIA ended the session +0.21% higher to 26,071.72 points following a weak open, while strength to consumer staples (+1.1%) helped the S&P 500 to a +0.44% gain at 2,810.30 points, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped +0.55% to 7,336.38 points.

PRECIOUS: Early dollar weakness saw bullion open with a bid tone during Asian trade on Monday, however the metal endured whippy price action into the Chinese open to touch a USD $1,335.80 session high before retreating. The far East opened to a USD $8 premium relative to loco London gold, however a stronger greenback weighed upon the metal throughout afternoon flows to see USD $1,330 tested. The latest CTFC data showed spec long positioning increased around +3% over the past week, while Shanghai physical demand remains buoyant as the on-shore premium extends toward USD $9. The recent pull-back has likely tested spec longs and should be viewed as a healthy retracement before the metal makes a further test toward USD $1,350 and ultimately the September 2017 high of USD $1,357. Silver disappointed to slip below USD $17 late in Asian trade, while the white metals held a narrow range.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 01 Feb 2018

MACRO: As widely expected, the FOMC decided to keep short-term interest rates on hold on Wednesday, staying within the 1.25% - 1.50% range. The meeting was the last chaired by Janet Yellen as she hands over the reins to Jerome Powell who is scheduled to be sworn in on Monday. The committee indicated a March interest rate increase is still very much on the table, as the post-meeting policy statement struck a hawkish tone with members confident the inflation rate will stabilise around the 2% objective over the medium term. ADP employment data released on Wednesday showed a further 234k jobs added during January (exp: 185k), with the services sector once again underpinning the headline figure to contribute 212k positions. Additions by business size were broadly even as mid-sized business gained 91k, large size business added 85k and small business contributed 58k. Within the services sector, information (-3k) was the only negative contributor as trade, transportation and utilities increased 51k, while professional and business (46k), education and health (47k) and leisure and hospitality (46k) all reported strong gains. U.S. pending home sales edged higher during December, adding +0.5% MoM (exp: +0.5%) to follow a +0.3% increase the month prior. Equity markets in the U.S. rebounded from recent weakness on Wednesday, however the main indices endured volatile trade following a strong open. The DJIA closed the session +0.28% higher at 26,149.39 points, while the S&P 500 crept into positive territory (+0.05%) as real estate stocks (+1.6%) helped to outweigh declines to healthcare stocks (-1.49%). The greenback saw mixed trade on Wednesday, recovering from Asian-led weakness during afternoon trade in New York following supportive commentary out of the FOMC meeting. The DXY index ended the session modestly higher after the dollar booked a sustained break above 109.00 against the yen, while EUR/USD dipped below 1.24 after trading to an intra-session high of 1.2475.

PRECIOUS: Bullion held within the recent range amid whippy trade on Wednesday, breaking to a USD $1,332.50 session low around the FOMC decision on dollar strength, before ripping higher into the close and testing the recent resistance toward USD $1,350. The yellow metal was able to hold onto late session gains and settle around USD $1,345 for a +0.5% result, seeing further strength tempered somewhat by bid U.S. equity markets and layered offers throughout the broad USD $1,345 - $1,350 resistance level. Asian trade on Thursday saw mixed price action following the New York volatility, with bullion initially seeing strength amid a softer dollar. Shanghai continued to see interest toward USD $8 above London bullion, however heavy trade through Comex weighed upon the price action around the Chinese open to test a break of USD $1,340, before modest bids throughout the afternoon saw bullion recapture the majority of the early Shanghai weakness. The yellow metal continues to see firm interest with volumes passing through Comex notably elevated, however thus far has been unable to make a sustained move outside of the USD $1,335 - USD $1,350 range. Offers toward USD $1,350 are likely to restrict further top-side gains over the near term in lieu of major dollar moves, while in addition, producer interest around this level continues to weigh upon the price action. Data releases today include U.S. initial jobless claims, Bloomberg U.S. consumer comfort, Markit U.S. manufacturing PMI, U.S. construction spending and ISM U.S. manufacturing.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 25 Jan 2018

 

MACRO: House prices in the U.S. increased modestly during November according to the latest report from the FHFA, rising +0.4% MoM (exp: +0.5%) to follow an upwardly revised +0.6% increase the month prior (prev: +0.5%). Existing home sales in the U.S. declined by more than expected during December, sliding -3.6% MoM (exp: -1.9%) to annualised rate of 5.57 million (exp: 5.70 million). The December print was reportedly a result of a decline in the number of previously owned homes on the market, falling -11.4% to 1.48 million to mark the lowest level since January 1999. The Markit U.S. manufacturing PMI (flash) edged higher during January, printing a 34-month high of 55.5 (exp: 55.0) from 55.1 during December. The services PMI print meanwhile drifted modestly lower, easing to 53.3 (exp: 54.3) from 53.7 previously. U.S. equity markets endured a wild ride on Wednesday to end mixed as the DJIA pushed to a fresh record close, while weakness across technology stocks dragged the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq lower. The DJIA climbed into positive territory late in the session to end +0.16% higher at 26,252.12 points, while the S&P 500 eased just -0.06% to 2,837.54 points and the Nasdaq Composite shed -0.61% to 7,415.059 points. The Greenback continued to decline on Wednesday to see the DXY index slump below 90 for the first time since December 2014. Comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin were the catalyst for the fresh sell-off. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Mnuchin said that a weaker greenback “is good for us as it is related to trade and opportunities.”

PRECIOUS: Bullion extended recent gains on the back of the Mnuchin-led dollar weakness on Wednesday, importantly breaking above key resistance levels to end the session +1.3% higher. Gold volumes across Comex were close to double that of the average as the metal broke through the key USD $1,350 and $1,358 resistance levels to a USD $1,362.00 session high print. ETF holdings continue to increase and are sitting at the highest levels since 2013, while we also see large open interest around the USD $1,350 strike level for the upcoming expiry, which should help to keep prices buoyant over the near-term. It was a similar story in Asian trade on Thursday as gold pushed through Wednesday’s New York high print as the greenback slumped to new lows. USD/China currencies collapsed to see the on-shore premium toward USD $9 relative to loco-London bullion and the metal was able to print a USD $1,366 session high before European names opened on the offer as the dollar gain traction. Resistance for the yellow metal cuts in toward USD $1,370, while supportive price action should sit broadly between USD $1,345 - $1,350. Silver’s recent malaise relative to gold looks to have ended with the metal climbing a staggering 3.3% on Wednesday. The grey metal was able to break out of a recent downtrend that cut in toward USD $17.40 and will now look to target resistance at USD $18.20 (Aug 2017 high) and USD $18.65 (April 2017 high).

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Friday 19 Jan 2018

 

MACRO: The U.S. House passed a last minute bill to avoid a government shutdown on Thursday, however it now moves to a more uncertain Senate. Housing starts in the U.S. decreased -8.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.192 million units during December. November saw an upwards revision to 1.299 million units from 1.297 million units previously. Building permits eased -0.1% to a rate of 1.302 million. Initial jobless claims fell 41,000 to a seasonally adjusted 220,000 during the week ended January 13. The four-week moving average eased 6,250 to 244,500, while continuing claims increased 76,000 to 1.95 million during the week ended January 6. U.S. equity markets eased on Thursday as investor concern over a possible Government shutdown increased. The DJIA pulled back -0.37% to 26,017.81 points, while real estate (-1.03%) weighed upon the S&P 500 as the bourse declined -0.16%. Treasury markets saw 10-year yields around 2bps higher to 2.6145%, while two-year yields eased marginally. Markets in Europe posted gains on Thursday as the Dax jumped +0.74% and the Stoxx Europe 600 added +0.19% , while persistent pound strength saw the U.K. FTSE -0.32% lower for the fourth consecutive session decline.

PRECIOUS: Gold traded with a mild bid tone during Asian trade on Friday, seeing broad regional interest with gains extending on the back of a softer greenback throughout afternoon pricing. Early session interest around the USD $1,325 support level kept price action buoyant leading into the Chinese open, while the far East were on the bid early as USD/CNH traded heavily, while USD/CNY opened notably softer relative to Thursday's close. Shanghai traded at an on-shore premium around USD $8 to take bullion through USD $1,330 and the metal was able to hold the figure throughout the afternoon, extending to a USD $1,332.50 session high as Europe filtered in. The recent pull-back from USD $1,345 has likely tested spec longs and should be viewed as a healthy retracement before the metal makes a further test toward USD $1,350 and ultimately the September 2017 high of USD $1,357. Silver has been able to re-take USD $17 and will continue to pivot around the figure, while platinum extended through USD $1,000 today.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

 

DAILY REPORT : Wed 31 Jan 2018

MARKETS/MACRO: Markets had a more risk-off feel overnight led by equities and commodity prices. A combination of profit taking into month end, higher bond yields, stretched valuations and a potential US health-care shake-up seemed the main drivers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped -362.59 points, or -1.37%, to 26,076.89, the S&P500 sold off -31.10 points, or -1.09%, to 2,822.43 and the NASDAQ Composite retreated -64.025 points, or -0.86%, to 7,402.48. The best performing sector was Utilities (+0.3%) and the worst performing sector on the day was Healthcare ( -2.1%). European equities mirrored losses across global markets, as investors grew increasingly concerned about a sharp rise in U.S bond yields and its impact on the cost of borrowing. The Euro First 300 Index sank -13.01 points, or -0.83% to 1,557.84 and the Euro Stoxx 600 gave back -3.68 points, or -0.92% to 396.12. Commodities were down across the board, as investors turned cautious ahead of week full of political and economic events. This saw a sell-off across most asset classes. Industrials and precious were the hardest hit, while energy was not far behind. Crude oil prices fell sharply (WTI -$1.8% to $64.38) as a weaker USD combined with traders increasing doubts over the continued draw-down in inventories in the US. A survey by Bloomberg showed that investors are expecting to see a 900k b/d increase in crude oil inventories in the U.S last week. Increasing US output is also starting to weigh on the minds of traders, despite OPEC continuing to work on reducing their production cuts. This was highlight by Exxon Mobil’s announcement that it will triple production from the Permian Basin to around 600k b/d over the next few years. Overnight the move higher in yields continued and is starting to be a concern for risk assets with VIX on the rise. Not even a 400 point swoon in the Dow at one point could turn U.S treasuries positive on the day and is another signal that developed bond markets have entered a new (bearish) regime with global growth strong and central banks looking to normalise. The U.S 2y note rose +0.6bps to 2.124% and the 10y bond was up +2.6bps to 2.718%.

On the data front, the U.S Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence rose above expectation to 125.4 during January (123.0 expected), while the previous month was upwardly revised by +1.0 to 123.1. Lynn Franco, the Economics Director at the board noted, "Expectations improved, though consumers were somewhat ambivalent about their income prospects over the coming months, perhaps the result of some uncertainty regarding the impact of the tax plan". The up-beat sentiment suggests real consumption growth will kick-start 2018 strongly. Across the Atlantic, German HCPI undershot expectations to its lowest rate in 14 months at +1.4% YoY (+1.6% expected, +1.6% prior). This will raise down-side risks to already low expectations for the Euro Zone preliminary CPI tonight. Core measures will be important to watch, but continue to highlight ECB rate hikes are a distant prospect. Euro Zone activity remained bright, with Q4 GDP at +0.6% QoQ, or +2.7% YoY (upward revisions to Q3 also from +0.6% to +0.7% QoQ).

PRECIOUS: It was a volatile session for gold Tuesday, selling off throughout Asia and testing towards last Friday's lows, before shooting higher in Europe ($1349.00) and then giving it all back in NY - ultimately closing down slightly on the day. In Asia we opened yesterday around $1341 and gold steadily declined toward $1338.50 in the lead up to the Shanghai open. The Chinese futures market opened with a healthy $8-10 premium, and initially propped up the spot market, the metal trading back through $1340 briefly. Shortly after however, both gold and silver took it's cue from a rising U.S 10y rate (2.7%) and dipped back sharply to trade sub $1335 late in the Asia am. The metals, despite moderate and persistent buying from China into the pm session, remained suppressed throughout the afternoon. During early Europe the yield turned around and the dollar was also widely sold, which prompted an influx of short covering in gold, lifting the metal fairly sharply back to $1345. Gold rallied at the NY open to the days high ($1349), yet quickly turned once the better than expected consumer confidence figure was released, failing to catch a bid for the majority of the rest of the session despite the soft equity markets. In the end it was a bit of a disappointing performance for gold given the wide-spread risk off move, closing down -$2.50 on the day at $1338.50. Coming into month end there will likely see some volatility in FX, which we expect will translate over to precious. This coupled with some important releases over the next 24 hours (Trump SOTU address, FOMC, Euro Area CPI) could mean a bumpy ride today. On the down-side for gold the Friday cycle low of $1342.50-3.50 area will be important, while $1350 will prove a hurdle to the topside. Elsewhere, palladium had a horror session Tuesday. After trading above $1090 in early NY, heavy spec liquidation prevailed in a thin market and the grey metal traded one way to a low of $1053 (-3.8% off the high). Support was found around the 50 dma ($1054.50) closing just off that at $1057.

Price action was more subdued across the precious metals complex today. Gold opened up around $1338 and slowly plodded along into the SGE open confined to a $2 range ($1338-1340) trading modest volume. Shanghai investors and banks were again on the bid, even though the premium was a touch lower at $7-9 over spot. Gold continued to trade the range leading up to the SOTU address from Trump. There was not a great deal that happened around this, although the dollar did come off a bit towards the end of his speech which pushed the yellow metal through $1340. It appeared there were a few stops tripped there as the metal ran swiftly up to $1341.50 and remains around those levels as I write. Silver and the PGM's are all exhibiting modest gains on the day so far.

On the data front, Australian Q4 CPI came in weaker than expected with Headline coming in at +0.6% QoQ (+0.7% expected), +1.9% YoY (+2.0% expected) and Core at +0.4% QoQ (+0.5% expected), +1.8% YoY (+1.8% expected). Overall the data disappointed again as ongoing headwinds for inflation gain traction. AUD initially dropped 45 pips to 0.8054 lows before recovering partially to 0.8070. China's January manufacturing PMI was released shortly after this coming in below expectation at 51.3 (51.6 expected, 51.6 prior), while Non-Manufacturing PMI was improved to 55.3 (54.9 expected, 55.0 prior). At time of writing President Trump has just finished his State of the Union address, which focused on bringing back manufacturing to US shores, working on an immigration reform bill and talking up his tax reform. Markets didn't really react to his speech, the dollar tapering off mildly towards the end of the address. Quite a bit of data expected today including - Euro Zone CPI, German employment, Canadian GDP and U.S FOMC rate decision, ADP employment, pending home sales, Chicago PMI and mortgage applications.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Wednesday 24 Jan 2018

MARKETS/MACRO: Markets focused on upcoming U.S corporate earnings with a lack of significant data and the US government shutdown largely ignored. Rosy views on earnings has continued to aid equities this month, with major U.S indices lifting to new record levels and European bourses also climbing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed mostly unchanged Tuesday down -3.79 points (-0.01%) at 26,210.81, the S&P500 was modestly higher up 6.16 points (+0.22%) to 2,839.13 and the NASDAQ Composite added +52.257 points (+0.71%) to 6,885.20. The best performing sector on the day was Telecom Services (+1.78%), while the worst performing sector was Materials (-0.53%). European indices were also improved, the Euro Stoxx 600 up +0.70 of a point (+0.17%) to 402.81 and Euro First 300 edging up +1.87 points (+0.12%) to 1,582.91. Regionally the DAX was strong up +0.71%, FTSE100 inclined +0.21% and the CAC40 dipped -0.12%. Crude oil prices rose sharply as the market continued to react positively to the reports that OPEC wants to extend the current cooperation on output into 2019. Growing expectations of another strong draw-down in inventories in the U.S also helped support prices. A Bloomberg survey shows that the market is expecting a 2 million barrel fall in US crude stockpiles, which would put them at a 2 year low. The WTI March contract rose +$0.60, or +0.91% to $64.47 a barrel on the day. For treasuries the curve flattened somewhat, with the U.S 2y yield rising 0.03 bps to 2.065% and the 10y down -0.17 bps to 2.658%.

In the first volley before the World Economic Forum Donald Trump imposed tariffs on imported solar panels and washing machines. Outside of stepping away from the TPP, this was the first real shift from protectionist rhetoric to actual action against China and others. This gave investors another excuse to sell the Greenback overnight with the DXY closing at new multi-year lows. EUR is threatening to overcome 1.2300 with German ZEW survey and Eurozone consumer confidence both reaching new cycle highs. Similarly, GBPUSD closed around 1.4000, with the backdrop of a potential soft Brexit outcome and a weak $ which has seen 1m risk reversals trading at a 5 year high according to Bank of America.

It was a quiet day in terms of data on Tuesday. The Richmond Fed manufacturing index ended up conforming to the moderation trend of other manufacturing indices in December, printing at 14 (19 expected, 20 prior). This decrease resulted from a decline in both shipments and employment. The third component, new orders, held steady. However, manufacturing firms saw an increase in backlogs in January and they expect growth to strengthen in coming months. There was more positive data out of Europe with the Euro Zone consumer confidence figure coming in at 1.3, much better than the 0.6 expected and 0.5 figure prior in December. Elsewhere Germany’s ZEW survey came in at an eight month high. The current conditions jumped to a record high of 95.2 and future expectations rose to 20.4 too. The rise likely reflects strong export prospects for German firms both within Europe and further abroad, which is currently superseding political uncertainty, a stronger Euro and higher oil prices for now.

PRECIOUS: Gold continued to rise higher Tuesday, buoyed by the softening USD and uncertainty regarding international trade, as Trump imposed international tariffs on imported solar panels and washing machines. Gold opened the day around $1333.50 and after a brief downturn, ran higher into the Chinese open. USDCNY tested lower after the fix and some good two-way flows were seen on the SGE as a result. The flows were primarily real money / producer clients who were sitting on the offer vs Chinese banks who were looking for bids, with the SGE premium stable around USD $8-9. The decent flows continued into the Asian afternoon with the spot price remaining firm between $1335-$1337.50. Flows were again mixed during the European day and limited to a tight $4 range until we moved into the U.S open. Gold was quickly sold off after the NY open to the tune of $5-6, down to the days lows, which was right around option expiry time with a heavy strike at $1332. Some 9 mio oz went through the market during this period according to traders and the market remained suppressed for 30 minutes or so. Not long after however, a headline "Pence says to deliver 'America First' message at Davos", combined with Trump announcing the aforementioned tarrifs, saw the USD sell off rather rapidly. This was supportive for gold and the metal quickly reversed back to the earlier intra-day highs around $1339. As the afternoon wore on good buying flows through Comex were seen and the metal pushed through $1340 and up to a late peak of $1341.70, then closing just shy of this. Interestingly, the gold has shrugged off any correlation to moves in equities and rates for the time being and is moving more in sync with the dollar. Given that the sell-off in USD looks to continue, for the time being, we see conditions remaining supportive for the metal. Initial support sits at $1330, while resistance is the previous YTD high around $1344-45. Gold ETF's continue to see inflows, with the SPDR's holdings increasing 13 tons since the start of January, a similar scenario seen with silver which is also a factor keeping the metals supported.

It was a quieter day in Asia today, with the underlying demand from Chinese banks keeping gold bid. We opened and initially pushed higher, inching through the previous days high to a peak of $1342.10, however, there were some thick offers in Comex above there. Producers were also eager early sellers happy to cash in on the overnight advance. When China opened up for business there was an initial dip in the spot market, accompanied by a brief sell-off in the SGE in light of a slightly lower premium ($7-8). This did not last long however, with Chinese banks again quick to buy the dip and curb any further decline. It was mainly moderate sized two-way flows thereafter with spot gold holding above $1340 throughout the afternoon. In other markets, equities were generally lower with the Hang Seng (-0.3%), Nikkei (-0.5%) and Shanghai Composite (-0.05%) all currently in the red. WTI crude is flat at $64.45, the dollar is weaker again across the board (USDJPY -0.4% or -45 pips, GBPUSD +0.3% or +40 pips, EURUSD +0.2% or +26 pips) and base metals are firmer. On the data calendar today look out for Euro Zone and U.S preliminary manufacturing, services and composite PMI's, UK employment figures and U.S existing home sales.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 18 Jan 2018

MACRO: A bullish start to earnings season has translated into huge night for US equities as the three major bourses surged higher, the Dow posting it's first ever close above 26,000. Apple provided a boost for the tech sector, the tech giant tacked on 1.7% after announcing plans to repatriate billions in overseas cash back to the US. The Dow climbed 322.79 points, or 1.25%, to 26,115.65; the S&P 500 rose 26.14 points, or 0.94% to 2,802.56, while the Nasdaq surged 74.594 points, or 1.03%, to 7,298.279. Tech (+1.58%), consumer staples (+1.17%) and healthcare (+0.98%) led a broad advance in the markets. Across the Atlantic the stock markets did not fare as well, the EuroSTOXX fell 0.38 points, or 0.10%, to 397.97, the German DAX lost 62.37 points, or 0.47%, to 13,183.96, and the London FTSE 100 shed 30.5 points, or 0.39%, to 7,725.43. In the currencies, the US dollar index rallied 0.31% to 90.672 in volatile trading, the EUR traded down to 1.2193, while USD/JPY climbed to 111.34. US treasury yields were higher, the 2 year yield rose 2.48 bps to 2.0390% and the 10 year yield firmed 3.49 bps to 2.5720%. In commodities news, the oil markets were higher, Brent added 0.26% to $69.33 while WTI advanced 0.30% to $63.92. Base metals were mostly lower, with zinc (-1.09%) putting in the worst performance. In US economic data, the Fed advised that industrial production rose 0.9% in December following a 0.2% increase in November, the gain exceeded economists expectations of a more modest 0.6%. Production was up 3.6% over the calendar year, a significant improvement over the 0.8% rise in 2016. Capacity utilisation rose to 77.9% in December from 77.1% in November. The National Association of Home Builders monthly confidence index fell to 72 in January following December's 18 year high reading of 74. The Fed's Beige Book report said that the pace of growth in the US economy continues to be "modest to moderate", and the outlook for 2018 "remains optimistic for a majority of contacts across the country". In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei is at +0.60, the Shanghai composite is at +0.25%, the Hang Seng at +0.12%, and the ASX S&P 200 is at +0.11%. Tonight we have weekly jobless claims, housing starts, building permits, and the Philly Fed index out of the US.

PRECIOUS: It was a volatile session for the precious on the back of some sharp moves in the currencies. Gold opened at $1338 in Asia and was promptly squeezed to the days high of $1343 as the EUR spiked to 1.23 against the dollar. There was some demand out of China with the SGE premium around $7, but it was not enough to support the market as the EUR pulled back and gold was sold down to $1333. The market held around $1335 during London's AM session before the fireworks in NY. The EUR spiked again in early NY hours and the corresponding sell-off in USD saw gold jump to $1340, albeit very briefly. From here we had the release of the Fed's Beige Book and the Apple news to fuel demand for the greenback. The EUR dipped below 1.22, USD/JPY surged through 111, and the yellow metal plummeted to close at the days low of $1325. Silver saw choppy trading as it tumbled to a close right on the psychological $17 level. Palladium was the stand-out, picking up $20 to close at the days high $1115 while platinum held above $995. The Philadelphia gold and silver index lost 1.27%. The SPDR gold trust holdings were unchanged at 828.9 metric tonnes. In todays trading, gold has been relatively quiet in comparison to last nights theatrics. The market opened at $1325.90 and has traded and has oscillated between $1325-29 through the day, the SGE premium is steady at $7 over loco London. The yellow metal is sitting at $1327.80 as I write. Silver has hovered around the $17 level with a brief earlier in the day, the grey metal is at $17.01 as I write. The PGMs have been range-bound, platinum and palladium are at $996 and $1112. Gold has pulled back from the 4 month high printed on Monday, however the metal looks well supported at $1325 and below that we can expect plenty of buying interest ahead of $1300. On the upside, first resistance should be at the 4 month high of $1344 and the $1350 level after that.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.