DAILY REPORT : Friday 13th September 2013

MACRO: All eyes were on the US jobless claims figure and it certainly didn't disappoint. Initial claims for unemployment slumped by 31,000 to a seasonally adjusted 292,000 (vs mkt 330,000). It is the lowest level in more than seven years. US export prices fell for the sixth straight month in August, down by 0.50%. It was reported by the Labour Department that much of the fall was related to the volatile farming sector. The four week moving average for new claims declined by 7,500 to 321,250. US import prices were unchanged m/m in August (mkt +0.50%). Import prices have now fallen or have been flat for six consecutive months. In other economic news, the US budget deficit shrank in the month of August. The Federal Government fell $147.90 billion further into the red, meanwhile Fed spending has fallen 10% y/y. The USD was broadly unchanged overnight against most G10 currency's. The greenback fell slightly from a seven week high against the Yen, but traded little changed against the Euro which is currently around 1.3300. The Aussie remained under pressure, trading as low as 0.9230 before
settling the session around 0.9265. Syria continues to garner a lot of attention and there was an interesting article in the Sydney Morning Herald (borrowed from the New York
Times) which was written by the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, which was titled "America is not Exceptional". The story can be found on the following link
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/america-is-notexceptional- 20130912-2tmna.html , which seems to put military action in Syria firmly on the back foot. The US share market eased overnight, ending seven straight days of gains. The Dow Jones finished the session 26 points lower and the S&P500 closed down 5.70 points. Across the pond, the European share markets also finished lower. The blue chip STOXX 50 hit a fresh two year high before easing towards the close, the FTSEurofirst 300 index was flat as were the UK FTSE and DAX. Interestingly it is one year ago today that the Fed announced QE3, starting with purchases of USD 40 billion of agency backed securities per month. Most economists are expecting the Fed to begin tapering its asset purchases next week from the current rate of USD85 billion per month to USD75 billion. It's likely the USD will remain heavy up until the FOMC, unless the situation in Syria deteriorates. US retail trade is the only significant data release today.


PRECIOUS METALS: The precious complex witnessed an ugly sell off across the board overnight, as gold lost $40, trading as low as 1320.40 GCZ3. Signs of heaviness started in the Asian session yesterday as the yellow metal succumbed to selling pressure by the Chinese, but that was only the entree as London also came in heavily on the
offer. As mentioned in previous commentary's there were a number of critical supports sitting between 1350-55 with stops looming beneath. Once 1355 was 'given' by the Europeans, a weighty 2,000 lots swept the December contract lower as stop after stop were triggered, shattering any technical support that had held the market in previous sessions. On the initial sweep, the market traded as low as 1343.50 before hitting the circuit breaker. The gold managed to stage a 'dead cat bounce' to around 1349, but the relentless selling continued through the session by most of the expected players such as ETF's, macros and momentum traders whom were all looking for bids. The better than expected US jobless claims didn't help the market adding further pressure onto an already heavy market and we believe any rally's will be sold into up until the FOMC decision next week with 1350 being the key level to watch on the topside.


ASIA TODAY: Considering the carnage seen across the precious metals overnight, Asia was a quiet affair. Globex opened to some light demand, opening on the lows of the day, squeezing a few dollars higher leading up to the Asia open. The Japanese were on the bid, as the soft gold price and weaker USD/JPY lured short covering and bargain hunters into the fray as Tocom opened much lower. The Chinese were also on the bid, but considering the market is close to $40 lower than yesterday, interest was minimal. Gold poked its head briefly above 1330 just after the SGE fix, but selling orders were awaiting in Dec gold, which sent the market straight back down towards the mid 1320's. For the remainder of the PM session, physical buying was on the light side which makes me think there could well be further downside to this move. Gold is set for its biggest weekly decline since June. The shiny metal fell an ugly 3.2% yesterday and at current levels is set for a 4.70% decline for the week. Asian equities followed Wall Street's lead, as all major bourse's traded heavily from the outset. At the time of writing the Nikkei was down 0.50%, the Hang Seng the same whilst the Shanghai A Index was the worst performer, trading 1.02% in the red.


EUROPEAN SESSION: Gold continued to suffer from FED chief nomination rumors. Indeed ahead of the London open, news that Obama named Summers as next FED Chief made the round. Summers is known not to favor QE. Gold reached the low of the day at $1305 before lunch time but the denial by the White House saying reports in
Japanese press that Obama is set to name Larry Summers were wrong supported back the precious metal. Gold hit the high at $1323.20 once New York joined the session and traded again back to the downside. It is only after New York closed that the yellow metal overtook the day high on the futures market. Silver hit a one month low at 21.39 before bids took the opportunity to long on dips which supported the grey metal. The American session traded between $21.60 and $21.95. Again it is once Comex closed that silver managed to cross back above $22.00 and overtake the Asian high at $22.15. PGM’s traded at their one month low. Platinum fell to the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the June low to August high. Once the white metal bounced on the $1424 level, the rise started. Market reached $1450 after Comex close. Palladium traded between $685 and $700, that last level being a resistance for the past two weeks.

 

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Monday 9th September 2013

MACRO: The weekend news, as per the below links, have provided some initial support for the AUD/USD, USD/JPY and GBP/USD. The Aussie opened higher on the back of
stronger Chinese trade data and perhaps the Tony Abbot election win on Saturday. Although gains were somewhat limited given the iron ore and copper import components of the trade data were softer than expected and the Abbott victory was well and truly factored into the market already. USD/JPY also received a boost by the Tokyo 2020 Olympic bid win which is seen boosting infrastructure spending. Finally, the Sterling is trading higher, receiving a boost from Bank of England's Fisher striking a less dovish tone in the UK press.


The main headlines over the weekend can be found below:
China Trade Rebounds in Further Sign Economy Stabilizing
(Bbg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-08/china-traderebounds-
in-further-sign-economy-stabilizing.html
Abbott’s Coalition Wins Australia Poll as Labor’s Rudd
Exits (Bbg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-07/abbott-winsaustralian-
election-as-rudd-concedes-defeat-1-.html
Tokyo Olympics Win Seen Boosting Infrastructure,
Recovery (Bbg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-07/tokyoolympics-
win-seen-boosting-infrastructure-abe-srecovery.
html
BoE's Fisher says may hold off on more QE: newspaper (Rtrs)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/08/us-britain-bank-fisher-idUSBRE98703R20130908


Without question the key economic releases on Friday was the non farm payrolls. US job growth was less than expected. There were 169,000 news jobs (exp. 180.000), whilst the government downwardly revised its estimate for the two months prior by a combined 74,000 job (to 104,000 in July and 172,000 in June). The unemployment
rate dropped to a new 4.5 year low of 7.30% from 7.4%, however the number declined because people have given up looking for jobs as opposed to gaining jobs. The labour participation rate fell to its lowest reading since 1978 of 63.20%. It was reported that nearly 1 million Americans have given up on looking for work as they don't believe
they will find employment, whilst millions more said they aren't actively searching but they would like to work.


PRECIOUS METALS: All eyes were on the NFP's for gold's next move and it certainly didn't disappoint. Moments before the release of the number, it looks like someone tried preempting a positive figure, selling gold aggressively to the days lows, and as a result the metal dropped more than $10. The market got as low as 1361.50, but once the soft figure was released the market surged back higher, gapping more than $30 (>2.50%!) in a heartbeat, catching many by surprise. In other precious news, there was a report on Bloomberg this morning doing the rounds that hedge funds interest in gold it starting to pick up once again as combined holdings in gold futures have increased to the most bullish since January on the back of concerns that conflict in the Middle East will boost both gold and oil prices. Net long positions have increased by 3.60% to 101,396 futures/option contracts in the week ending 3rd September according to CFTC numbers. The price of gold, which looks set to post its first annual drop since the turn of the
century, has now rebounded 18% from the lows reached back in June.


ASIA TODAY: Gold opened on Globex this morning with good sized buying interest pushing the metal up towards the New York highs. The market was unable to breach 1393.50 and was just as hastily sold off. Once 1390 was 'given', the yellow metal dropped $5 in seconds, trading as low as 1386.00, and that was all in the first 5
minutes of trade! Despite the early fun and games, gold traded in a reasonably tight range for the remainder of the day. Some light buying by the Chinese on the Shanghai Gold Exchange lifted prices, but the demand was short lived. The PM session hardly moved at all, sitting quietly between 1387.50-1389.00. There were a few notable data releases today. Firstly the Japanese 2Q GDP which rose 0.90% q/q. Secondly, in
addition to the better than expected trade data out of China over the weekend, the Chinese consumer price index beat most economists forecasts, rising 2.60% from a year earlier. Lastly, the Australian July home loan approvals rose by 2.4%. Equity markets across Asia all performed admirably to start the week, and in particular the Shanghai A Index which is currently trading 3.15% higher at the time of writing. The Aussie All Ords finished the session 0.50% in the black whilst the Nikkei was also strong following Tokyo's successful 2020 Olympic bid, up 2.50%.


EUROPEAN SESSION: Gold started this week on a very quiet day with its spot price trading between $1382 and $1392. Investors are waiting to see how the Syrian conflict will evolve as Obama will make a final push this week to persuade Congress after failing to gain support from the meeting of the G20 in Russia last week. Silver was calm like gold today with a small downward shift at midday to $23.40 an ounce its low of the day. Another announcement is also waiting from India in the next few days on new measures to curb non-essential imports in order to strengthen the rupee and contain inflation. Palladium was down today with a bearish trend throughout the day and reached a low at $680 before recovering and closing at $684. Platinum was more correlated with the silent gold and silver movement today, although it plunged after 5pm (GVA time) and finished its day near its low of the day at $1480.

 

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT: Tuesday 3th September 2013

MACRO: With the US on holidays not a huge amount to report. The greenback was generally firmer overnight as USDJPY pushed through a number of technical barriers, and the EUR continued to slide lower. With the threat of military action in Syria subsiding for the time being and on the back of yesterdays much stronger than expected Chinese trade data, European equities were higher whilst both gold and oil fell. As the geopolitical tensions seem to be abating somewhat, the market is likely to be driven once again by economic data, especially as this week will be critical in the run up to the

Read more: DAILY REPORT: Tuesday 3th September 2013

DAILY REPORT: Thursday 12th September 2013

MACRO: Global equities continued their impressive run higher whilst USD softness were the key themes of the night. The S&P500 has now gained for seven consecutive
days, no doubt assisted by Obama asking Congress to delay the vote of military action in Syria. Elsewhere overnight, the greenback weakened against most G10 currency's. The Sterling was a big mover during London hours as the data out the UK continues to improve and surprise on the upside. The unemployment rate printed at 7.70% (employment rose by 80,000 in the three months to July) against estimates of 7.80%

Read more: DAILY REPORT: Thursday 12th September 2013

DAILY REPORT: Friday 6th September 2013

MACRO: There was quite a bit of data out overnight in Europe with BoE and ECB leaving benchmark rates unchanged, however it was the dovish comments from Draghi that dragged the EUR lower. Draghi said that the ECB discussed rate cuts and is ready to act against any excessive rise in money market rates. EUR traded to a low of 1.3111 and remains very soft first thing this morning. The USD continued to benefit overnight from rising US yields, with the 2y & 10y reaching 2 year highs the latter approaching 3%.

Read more: DAILY REPORT: Friday 6th September 2013

DAILY REPORT: Monday 2th September 2013

MACRO: Risk looks well supported first thing this morning after news out of the US on the weekend that Obama's decision on Syria will be to seek Congressional authorisation for military strikes and stronger than expected Chinese PMI data. The AUD traded as high as 0.8956 (vs NY close 0.8907) whilst equity markets across Asia have
opened much higher. Firstly on Syria, whilst Obama stated over the weekend that he has decided that military action is necessary, he said he'll give the country's lawmakers the opportunity to vote on the issue. Clearly lacking the support of his key allies (namely the UK) and Russia siding with Syria, the decision by the US President has major

Read more: DAILY REPORT: Monday 2th September 2013

DAILY REPORT: Wednesday 11th September 2013

MACRO: Forex markets continued to trade in a risk-on mode overnight as the developments surrounding Syria appear to be moving towards a diplomatic rather than
military solution. President Obama has agreed to a Russian backed and mediated proposal that Syria would hand over all of their chemical weapons to the International
community. A White House spokesman said Obama has been in contact with France's President Holland as well as UK Prime Minister Cameron, and all three superpowers
have agreed to work "closely together... in consultation with Russia and China, to explore seriously the viability of the Russian proposal to put all Syrian chemical weapons and related materials fully under International control to ensure their verifiable and enforceable destruction." Despite the positive news, Secretary of State John Kerry

Read more: DAILY REPORT: Wednesday 11th September 2013

DAILY REPORT: Thursday 5th September 2013

MACRO: Global stocks continue to hold in quite well against the backdrop of a Syrian military intervention led by the US and the heaviness in US rates. There were a number
of key data releases overnight as listed below:
· The US trade deficit widened out to $39 billion (mkt $38.60 billion) in the month of July from the four year low recorded in June. Imports rose by 1.60% m/m to a seasonally adjusted $228.59 bln while exports fell 0.60% to $189.45 bln. The rebound in imports was on the back of increased domestic demand for products ranging from industrial

Read more: DAILY REPORT: Thursday 5th September 2013

DAILY REPORT: Friday 30th August 2013

MACRO: The USD is generally firmer this morning on the back of positive data out of the US overnight: US Q2 GDP was elevated at +2.5% (+2.2% expected, +1.7% prior), primarily due to a smaller trade deficit and gains in inventories overshadowing the effects of budget cutbacks, whilst US jobless claims for the week were more or less in
line at 331k (332k expected, 337k revised prior). There was an absence of news from Syria, with the UK losing a vote in the House of Commons for action and France waiting for a UN report. The US stated that they won’t act without allies although they have now sent a destroyer to the Mediterranean. Equity markets were up across Europe and
the US and unsurprisingly in the commodity space, oil was off as were precious and

Read more: DAILY REPORT: Friday 30th August 2013

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 10th September 2013

MACRO: A very quiet night across most markets, with extremely limited volume exchanging hands, not being helped by no major economic releases for the session.
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams was on the wires stating that tapering talk by the Fed has been a 'healthy thing', that the recent labour data is in line with gradual improvement and finally that they are "not too concerned" that higher mortgage rates will harm GDP.. He was quoted as saying "We're still on our forecast, in my views, that we would begin tapering, quote-unquote, later this year" adding "I'm not going to get into whether that's September, or whatever....The latest data from the unemployment report, taken broadly in context of all the information we're getting, is consistent with the forecast I've had for the US economy of gradual improvement and doesn't change my view." He also said that "I'm still very much 100% with Chairman Bernanke's description of our timeline,". The dollar was generally softer across the board with the Syrian headlines once again dominating and as the US
Treasury yields eased amid speculation that Fed tapering may be less aggressive that most are predicting. The latest Syrian headlines come after Russia seized Kerry's comments urging Syria to give up its chemical weapons. Kerry was quoted in a London news conference "Sure, he (Bashar al- Assad) could turn over every single bit of his chemical weapons to the international community in the next week.... without delay and allow the full and total accounting for that, but he isn't about to do it and it can't be done," The Russian Foreign Minister was quick to comment, urging Syria to comply to Kerry's call, whilst Ban Ki-moon offered UN assistance in overseeing the destruction of
chemical weapons in Syria. There have been further comments this morning by Obama that the decision whether to use military force in Syria if congress votes 'no' will be evaluated after the vote, also highlighting that he is not confident that congress will vote to authorise use of force in Syria. In currency markets the EUR was was the big mover overnight., trading more than 100 pips higher as shorts were squeezed out, eventually reaching a high of 1.3281 before settling the session around 1.3250. The Aussie remained well bid however this has more do to with the strong Chinese trade data released over the weekend. There is more Chinese data released today (Industrial Production and Retail Sales). Elsewhere, the US share market posted solid gains. The Dow finished the session 140 points higher whilst the S&P500 closed a healthy 16 points higher.


PRECIOUS: Gold had a very subdued overnight session with a small $8 range seen on very thin volumes. Light Chinese buying was again seen in the mid $1380's which acted as support, as well as some gamma type buying. As mentioned the USD was generally weaker across the board yesterday but it did not really translate into price action in the metals. Syria for now remains a lingering underlying bullish factor for the market, but I think with each passing day that will play a smaller component in propping the market up. QE3 will return to the forefront over the next week or so as we approach the September FOMC meeting, which many believe will blueprint the first outright reduction of easing measures by the Fed. With this on the horizon gold could struggle to push through $1400 again in the near term (save for a strike on Syria). In the option space there has been a marked increase in sales of short dated 14XX handle calls. In South Africa employee's belonging to the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM), which speaks for almost two-thirds of the of the 107,000 workers at the goldminers collective wage talks, accepted an 8% pay increase to end a 48 hour strike on Sept 3rd. The AMCU, the second largest gold miners union , will hold out against the pay offer for a better deal according to Bloomberg.


ASIA TODAY: The initial move this morning was a bit of a knee-jerk reaction higher on tiny volumes to pop above $1390. As soon as it moved above there selling in Dec gold quickly offered us back lower. Most of the morning through the Tocom and SGE open was a non event with tiny volumes trading through all the futures markets. The bias was certainly to the downside throughout the morning however and we slowly came lower. As he SGE lunch break approached the selling gathered momentum quickly shunting the market below the overnight lows of $1383. Stops were triggered and volume picked up significantly below $1380, eventually touching a low of $1377.50 and remaining soft into the afternoon. In other markets oil continues to cool as Syrian tensions ease with WTI currently down -0.9% intraday at 108.55. The USD continued to broadly weaken against most of the major currencies - again in contrast to the metals - while equities were strong - Nikkei +1.6%, Shanghai Composite +0.7% All Ords +0.5%. In terms of data today we had Chinese IP which improved to +10.4% YoY (+9.9% expected, +9.7% prior), retail sales which came in as expected at +13.4% YoY (+13.3% expected, +13.2% prior) and fixed asset expenditure at +20.3% YoY (+20.2% expected, +20.1% expected) which had a marginal effect on markets. Have a good day ahead.


EUROPE TODAY: Gold was down 1% today with a second session low as Syria’s government accepted the proposal of Russia to surrender its chemical weapons and calming worries about a potential U.S. attack. In response Barack Obama did not completely say that the strike was canceled but announced that an attack “absolutely” would be put on hold if Syria followed to put its chemical weapons under international control as proposed. Following this European shares rose and Brent crude futures fell to a one-week low below $113 a barrel maintaining its correlation with the yellow metal. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest goldbacked exchange-traded fund also fell by 0.23 percent yesterday. Gold spot price closed at $1364. Spot silver tracked gold downward and reached a low of $22.81 an ounce after the Russian’s proposal. The white metal closed on this decreasing session at $23.01. Palladium was the only precious metal being bullish today despite trading near a two-month low. It increased by
0.9% and closed near its high at 691. Platinum was bearish like gold and silver for its part. It decreased consistently from its opening until its closing $1473.

 

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT: Wednesday 4th September 2013

MACRO: It was an interesting but relatively contained session overnight. The dollar initially rallied on stronger US ISM (55.7 vs 54.0 expected, 55.4 prior) however reversed
after the House leader Boehner in the US lent his support to Obama on military action in Syria when the congress reconvenes next week. Oil and gold extended their gains
following this announcment and the AUD stalled ahead of offers at the 0.9080 level following yesterday’s RBA statement. We have Australian Q2 GDP today which comes
after the RBA have already downgraded their 2013 GDP forecast to 2.25% for 2013 (from 2.5% prior) in its August monetary policy statement. So don’t expect too much from

Read more: DAILY REPORT: Wednesday 4th September 2013

DAILY REPORT: Thursday 29th August 2013

MACRO: Not a great deal to report overnight. A generally firmer day for the greenback whilst 10 Year US Treasury yields rose to a high of 2.79%. Oil continues to gain a lot of
the markets attention and reached a two year high on the back of concerns surrounding the Middle East. There have been a number of headlines hitting the wires this morning
regarding Syria:
*OBAMA SAYS HE HASN'T MADE DECISION ON SYRIA ACTION
*OBAMA CITES NEED FOR `PRETTY STRONG SIGNAL' TO SYRIA'S ASSAD
*OBAMA SAYS HE'S RECEIVED OPTIONS FROM PENTAGON ON SYRIA
*OBAMA SAYS HAS RECEIVED OPTIONS FROM U.S. MILITARY ABOUT POTENTIAL STRIKE ON SYRIA BUT HAS NOT MADE A DECISION - PBS INTERVIEW
*OBAMA - DOES NOT BELIEVE THAT THE SYRIAN OPPOSITION POSSESSED CHEMICAL WEAPONS, HAVE CONCLUDED THAT SYRIAN GOVERNMENT
CARRIED OUT THE ATTACKS

Read more: DAILY REPORT: Thursday 29th August 2013