DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 07 Nov 2017

MACRO: US equities were marginally higher despite the absence of any major economic data, with the three major bourses posting fresh record highs. The Dow inched up 9.23 points, or 0.04%, to 23,548.42; the S&P 500 gained 3.29 points, or 0.10% to 2,591.13, while the Nasdaq rose 22.0 points, or 0.33%, to 6,786.44. There were wins for energy (+2.20%), REITs (+1.53%) while telecoms (-2.44%) led the laggards. European shares were narrowly mixed, the EuroSTOXX advanced 0.53 points, or 0.13%, to 396.59, the German DAX slipped 10.07 points, or 0.07%, to 13,468.79, and the London FTSE 100 crept up 1.93 points, or 0.03%, to 7,562.28. In currency majors, the US dollar index gave up 0.20% to 94.753, the EUR traded up to 1.1616 despite dropping as low as 1.1582 during London hours, while USD/JPY was as low as 113.73. US treasury yields were lower, the 2 year yield declined 0.19 bps to 1.6126% and the 10 year yield slipped 1.62 bps to 2.3163%. In commodities news. oil markets are riding high after the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman ordered the arrest of several princes and ministers in an effort to crackdown on corruption. The purge is believed to be a move to consolidate power, and given the Crown Prince is a key supporter of the OPEC production cuts the move has seen oil prices surge to 2 year highs. Brent climbed 2.93% to $57.27 while WTI jumped 3.29% to $64.11. Base metals mostly higher, with nickel (+1.53%) the biggest mover. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei sits at +0.82%, the Shanghai composite is at +0.64%, the Hang Seng at +1.26%, and the ASX S&P 200 at +0.83%. Tonight we have the NFIB small business index, job openings, and consumer credit out of the US; retail data out of the Eurozone; and industrial production out of Germany.

PRECIOUS: Buoyant session for the preciousas gold manages a close above $1280. Gold opened at $1270 in Asia and was quickly testing the $1265-66 support that has held throughout the month as USD/JPY jumped to 114.5. The SGE premium at $10 prompted decent buying action but dollar pressure kept the price below $1270 through the Asian session. The market traded sideways around $1270 through the London AM before taking off in NY hours as the greenback softened. The yellow metal jumped $12 to a high of $1282 before settling to finish at $1281, the first close above $1280 since October 24th. Silver's chart was a mirror image of the disappointing session on Friday, the grey metal traded sideways through Asia and London hours before rocketing over 2% to a high of $17.24 in NY trading. Palladium made another move at the recent highs around $1006 before dropping to $991 and recovering to a finish at $1000 in whippy trade. Platinum made a nice $13 move to a close at $931. The Philadelphia gold and silver index added 1.92%. Gold ETFs bought 6kozs overnight. In Asia today, we expected to some interest in gold following the close above $1280 however Chinese selling, with the SGE premium lower at $7-8, appears to be capping the market. The yellow metal is at $1279.00 as I write. Silver opened at $17.23 and was offered immediately, the grey metal drifted to a low of $17.09 and has recovered slightly to sit at $17.13 as I write. PGMs are trading sideways. Gold should find initial support at the $1276 100 dma and below that at the $1265 level. On the upside, first resistance is at the November high of $1283 followed by $1290.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Wed 01 Nov 2017

MACRO: The employment cost index in the U.S. increased a seasonally adjusted +0.7% (exp: +0.7%) during Q3 according to the latest Labor Department figures. The print follows a +0.5% gain previously and was underpinned by a +0.7% increase in wages and salaries, while benefits increased +0.8%. Consumer confidence in the U.S. surged higher during October, adding 5.3 points to 125.9 (exp: 121.5) to mark the highest reading since December 2000. The increase was reportedly on the back of expectations surrounding upcoming tax reforms, as the expectations component of the index improved to 109.1 from 102.2, while the present situation index ticked up to 151.1 from 146.1. The Chicago purchasing manager's index jumped to 66.2 (exp: 60.0) during October to mark the highest level since March 2011. New orders continued to increase and hit its highest level since June, while production jumped to the highest level since since August 2014. Having set a 29-year high last month, order backlogs surged higher again during October to sit at a 43-year high. Weighing upon the print was further weakness to employment, sliding below 50 and into contraction territory for the fourth time this year. Equity markets in the U.S. ended October on a positive note, extending recent gains following a number of strong earnings results. The DJIA ended the session +0.12% higher at 23,377.24 points to cap off a stellar monthly gain of +4.3%, the largest such gain since February. Gains to technology (+0.39%) and energy (+0.36%) saw the S&P 500 to a +0.09% gain at 2,575.26 points, seeing the bourse +2.2% higher over the month to mark the seventh straight monthly gain. The Nasdaq Composite meanwhile booked a +0.43% return on Tuesday to close at a fresh record closing level at 6,727.669 points and in the process booked a +3.6% monthly gain. Crude futures continued to push higher on Tuesday on expectations of further production cuts by OPEC members to extend beyond March 2018. Brent crude (Dec) climbed around +0.8% to USD $61.37 per barrel, marking the highest close since mid 2015 and booking a +8% return for October. WTI followed the global benchmark higher, adding +0.4% to USD $54.38 per barrel for a monthly return of around +4.7%. European markets edged higher during Tuesday's session, seeing the Stoxx Europe 600 (+0.33%) end at its highest level since mid-May follow a number of strong earnings reports.

PRECIOUS: Bullion pulled back from recent gains during European and U.S. hours on Tuesday, weighed down by a resurgent greenback to post a monthly decline of around -0.8% and the first consecutive monthly decline this year. Early Asian interest gave way to offers during European hours, with no significant headlines passing through, it was generally a dollar play as the greenback pushed higher into the New York open. Support for bullion around USD $1,270 held generally resilient, breached on a sharp sweep lower following the U.S. consumer confidence print, however quickly recovering to spend the remainder of the session above the support, albeit within a narrow range. Asian interest today was again a rather muted affair, seeing bullion test toward Tuesday's New York low print, before interest out of China provided buoyancy throughout the remainder of the session. Shanghai saw a heightened premium around USD $9 as a result of the lower spot price and physical demand out of the region acted to restrict further declines leading into European hours. Gold seems to be seeing little benefit from safety flows on the back of Special Counsel Robert Mueller's investigation, however it is worth keeping an eye on developments should further charges be forthcoming. All eyes will be on President Trump's nomination for the Federal Reserve Chair, with many considering Jerome Powell the front runner. Should Powell get the nod we are likely to see near-term dollar weakness that should underpin a move higher for bullion. Conversely, John Taylor is also very much in the running and as a known hawk would see the greenback turn bid to weigh upon the yellow metal. Initial support sits at the recent low prints around USD $1,268, however key levels can be found below this at the 200 DMA (USD $1,261) and the psychological USD $1,250 level. On the topside, resistance comes in broadly between USD $1,280 - $1,285, with resting offers likely to make it difficult for bullion to break through. All eyes today on the FOMC announcement and associated commentary, U.S. ADP employment, Markit U.S. manufacturing PMI, ISM U.S. manufacturing and ISM prices paid.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 26 Oct 2017

MARKETS/MACRO: Despite solid data across the board, there was certainly a less 'Gung Ho' attitude toward risk assets overnight, although a clear catalyst for moves wasn’t obviously apparent. Softer earnings reports (Boeing, Coca Cola, Chipotle), concerns over the Fed chair, the upcoming ECB meeting and renewed bickering in U.S political circles (raising concerns over the passage of tax reform), were all flagged as drivers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -112.3 points, or -0.48%, to 23,329.46, the S&P500 sold off -11.98 points, or -0.47%, to 2,557.15 and the Nasdaq slumped -34.539 points, or -0.52%, to 6,563.891. The best performing sector was Healthcare ( -0.12%) and the worst performing sector were Teleco's ( -2.28%). European stocks ended with losses as investors took risk off the table ahead of a much anticipated ECB decision on monetary policy today. The FTSE Euro First 300 index relinquished -9.38 points, or -0.61% to 1,522.07 and the Euro Stoxx 600 Index fell -2.20 points, or -0.57% to 387.13. In FX, USDJPY was range bound and closed slightly lower at 113.70, AUDUSD slumped -0.9% to 0.7700 following the softer than expected Q3 CPI report and EURUSD gained +0.4% to 1.1810 ahead of the ECB. The Dollar Index closed slightly lower by -0.1% to 93.71. Bond yields continued to lift, with the U.S 10y up +1.6bps to 2.435% (intra-day it had lifted to a 7 month high of 2.47%), while the U.S 2y yield rose +1.79bps to 1.599%. The yield on the 10y German bund rose +0.6bps to 0.48% and peripheral spreads narrowed. Crude oil prices put in a rather lacklustre effort, as the market failed to get excited about strong global demand. EIA data showed that US oil exports climbed to a record 7.66mio barrels last week. The weekly report also showed that gasoline stockpiles fell by 5.47mb, while distillate fell by 5.25mb. Any exuberance was quelled by a rise in overall production and inventories. Dec WTI crude sold off -$0.26, or -0.50%, to US$52.21 a barrel. Elsewhere, Iron ore was basically unchanged and coal markets were subdued.

It was pretty much a clean sweep in terms of positive data surprises overnight. New orders for durable goods in the U.S rose +2.2% (+1.0% expected) in September from +2.0% a month earlier. The higher figure was led by a +5.1% rise in transportation equipment orders, the biggest increase since June. Orders for civilian airplanes and parts rose +31.5%, reflecting strong demand for the nation’s largest aerospace firm, Boeing. It had 72 orders in September, up from 33 in August. Durable goods ex the volatile transportation component rose +0.7% (+0.5% expected) from +0.5%. Still in the U.S purchases of newly built homes increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 667k (+18.9%) in September from the previous month, putting new home sales at the highest level in a decade. Most surprisingly, the report said that home sales in the south, which includes Florida and Texas, jumped by +25.8%. An aging population moving to warmer climates and relatively affordable home prices have helped make the south a growth market, and that might have outweighed the effect of the recent hurricanes. Across the Atlantic, GDP growth in the U.K edged up in Q3 to +0.4% QoQ (+0.3% expected), based on the preliminary estimate. Annual GDP growth was +1.5% YoY in Q3 (+1.5% expected), similar to that in Q2. Manufacturing output rose 1.0% QoQ, more than reversing the fall in Q2, while output growth for the services sector was steady at +0.4% QoQ. In Canada, the BoC kept it's benchmark interest rate steady at +1.0%.

PRECIOUS: It was a choppy session for the precious complex, gold, silver and palladium particularly, with the former again managing to hold onto support in the low $1270's despite the spike in U.S yields to 7 month highs. The Asian session was fairly subdued with gold gradually ticking lower into the SGE open with specs still looking to play intra-day moves on the short side. Gold opened at $1277 and slowly meandered lower to $1275.50 by the time China came online. There was very little demand from them though and gold continued to trickle lower into the afternoon briefly hammering down to $1272.50 before recouping and trading quietly round $1273-74 into the Europe open. The rising U.S yields kept a lid on the gold throughout much of Europe despite softer equity markets. In early New York there was a considerable jump of around $8 to $1279.50, with some 10,000+ lots of Dec gold exchanging hands on the move. It was most likely fast money types being stopped out on the move back through the 100 dma ($1275.50), spooked by the U.S yields easing off their peaks. Over the proceeding hour gold dropped off back to $1272.50 but quickly recouped again from there to $1278. It was a choppy affair in a tight range into the close, finishing at $1277.50. Gold really has held well above $1270 over the past 3 sessions, despite a number of factors weighing on it such as rallying yields and stock markets as well as better than anticipated U.S data. That said the market still feels like it wants to try lower, there may just be a short squeeze to the topside first ($1295-1300?).

Gold opened in Asia on the front foot with some light buying going through on Ecomex early on, pushing the spot price a few dollars higher towards $1279.50. There was some decent sell orders accumulated up around that level, also corresponding with the overnight highs, however gold remained fairly well bid pressing against this level leading into the China open. The SGE opened much the same as yesterday, the premium a touch lower at $7-8 over the loco London price and with modest volume going through. The USDCNY fixed around 60 pips lower prompting some follow through buying from Chinese traders. It was only brief, although was enough to tease spot gold through $1280 and up to the days peak. The Chinese buying didn't last long however and with good Comex based selling above $1280 gold clung to $1280 into the afternoon. At time of writing we remain chopping either side of this level on modest volumes. Silver followed gold higher over the morning running into a little resistance at $17.00, but holding there into the afternoon and palladium continued slowly higher throughout the day.

In other markets equities were mixed, the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite currently up +0.2% and +0.45% a piece, while the Hang Seng and ASX200 are modestly lower at -0.15% and -0.05% respectively. WTI Crude edged -$0.10 lower currently trading at $52.09 a barrel and the USD is a little softer on the day vs. the majors. AUDUSD tried below 0.7700 but has so far held. Ahead today look out for U.S jobless claims, wholesale inventories and pending home sales, although the main event is undoubtedly the ECB rate decision - so expect things to remain quiet until then.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Monday 06 Nov 2017

MACRO: U.S. October payrolls printed below expectations to increase 261k (exp: 313k), however the softer than expected print was offset to a certain extend by upwards revisions to both September and August by a combined 90k payrolls. Leisure and hospitality were responsible for 106k of the headline figure to claw back September's storm related decline, professional and business services added 50k, education and health gained 41k and manufacturing ticked 24k higher. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate declined to 4.1% (exp: 4.2%) from 4.2% previously to mark the lowest level since December 2000 and the broader 'U-6' measure of unemployment and underemployment, which includes those who have stopped looking and those in part-time jobs who want full-time positions, fell to 7.9% from 8.3% previously. Wage growth was again disappointing, declining USD $0.01 to USD $26.53 per hour, while an annualised basis earnings slipped to +2.4% YoY (exp: +2.7%). U.S. factory orders printed the third gain in the last four months to increase +1.4% MoM during September (exp: +1.2%). Orders for durable goods eased marginally to +2.0% MoM (exp: +2.0%) from +2.2% previously, while the closely watched orders for non-defence capital goods (ex aircraft) jumped +1.7% MoM from a +1.3% read previously. Equity markets in the U.S. closed at fresh records on Friday, buoyed by gains to Apple (+2.61%) while investors navigated mixed data releases. The DJIA added +0.10% to touch an intra-session all-time high and close at a record 23,539.19 points, while strength across technology (+0.85%) underpinned a +0.31% gain to the S&P 500, with the bourse also hitting an intra-session record high on the way to a fresh record close at 2,587.84. Oil futures rallied to the highest level in more than two years on Friday, buoyed by a further decline to the U.S. oil rig count. WTI jumped around +2% to USD $55.64 per barrel, booking a +3.2% gain on the week, while Brent crude ended above USD $62 per barrel at a more than two-year high.

PRECIOUS: After a quiet lead-up, gold saw whippy price action around the U.S. payrolls release on Friday, initially bid through USD $1,280 on the headline print, before succumbing to USD strength on the back of the ISM data and ultimately ending lower. A sharp break through the USD $1,270 support level saw bullion once again testing the mid USD $1,260 levels, however the metal was able to consolidate into the close and end around the USD $1,270 near-term pivot point. Asian pricing kicked off the week in a relatively muted fashion, with bullion oscillating either side of USD $1,270 throughout early session pricing to withstand an early USD bid bias. Chinese interest opened to the yellow metal toward the session low print as the greenback wrestled back the ascendancy, however the physical interest out of the Far East soon provided the impetus for a leg higher as the yellow metal traded at an on-shore premium above USD $10 for the majority of the session. Gold will be looking to interest broadly between USD $1,265 - $1,270 to restrict further downside moves, with further interest at the 200 DMA around USD $1,262 below this, while the initial hurdle to the topside sits at the 100 DMA around USD $1,276.50. Data today includes Markit service/composite PMI prints from France, Germany and the Eurozone, followed by Eurozone PPI.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 31 Oct 2017

MACRO: U.S. personal income increased in line with expectations at +0.4% MoM during September to follow a +0.2% increase in August. Personal spending jumped +1.0% MoM (exp: +0.9%) from a +0.1% read previously, as purchases of motor vehicles from hurricane damaged Texas and Florida underpinned the print. The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, core PCE (excluding food and energy), edged +0.1% higher during September (exp: +0.1%), while on an annualised basis core PCE held at +1.3% YoY. Equities in the U.S. ended trade lower on Monday, following rumors that Republican's may consider a "gradual phase-in" of corporate tax cuts, rather than enacting them immediately once passed. The DJIA closed the session down -0.36% at 23,348.74 points, while declines to healthcare (-1.07%) saw the S&P 500 -0.32% lower to 2,572.83 points. That Nasdaq Composite meanwhile pulled back from an intra-session record to finish just -0.03% down, with gains to Apple (+2.25%) supporting the tech-laden bourse. Brent crude extended gains above USD $60 per barrel on Monday, ending the session +0.8% higher at USD $60.90 per barrel to mark the highest front-month settlement in over two years. WIT followed the global benchmark higher, adding +0.5% to USD $54.15 per barrel, the best finish since late February. After touching a three month high last week, the greenback eased against majors on Monday to see notable declines against the euro and yen. Markets across Europe ended trade generally higher on Monday, underpinned by strong performances to Spanish stocks after the central Government in Madrid took control of the Catalonia region. The IBEX 35 in Madrid jumped +2.44% to 10,446.00, while the broad Stoxx Europe 600 added +0.12% and the German Dax closed +0.09% higher for another all-time record close. A stronger pound and ratings downgrades to a number of home builders saw the U.K. FTSE 100 end -0.23% lower.

PRECIOUS: Bullion held onto a narrow range throughout Tuesday's Asian session, finding an underlying level of interest around USD $1,275 (100 DMA), however unable to break away from the figure amid lower than usual volumes. Chinese demand did little to stimulate price action as the on-shore premium opened toward USD $5 relative to London gold, while the BOJ monetary policy 'non-decision' gave USD/JPY a short term bid to pressure bullion toward the USD $1,275 support. Afternoon flows saw the dollar reverse the earlier bid tone to support the yellow metal higher, seeing late interest as European names filtered in. Over the near-term we expect the USD $1,270 - $1,280 range to hold, with a break either side likely to be driven by upcoming U.S. events. Investor's have a number of events/developments to keep a watchful eye over this week, including the potential next Federal Reserve Chair nomination, the two day FOMC meeting commencing today, updates to potential U.S. tax reforms and developments regarding Special Council Robert Mueller's investigation. Indications are that President Trump is leaning toward Powell as the next Federal Reserve Chair, with the decision expected to be made on Thursday. Fed policy makers begin their two day meeting today and while no major changes to monetary policy are expected, the statement released on Wednesday at the conclusion of the meeting will be scrutinised for clues as to whether the committee is likely to go ahead with the expected interest rate increase in December. In regional news today, as widely expected the BOJ left monetary policy unchanged, holding the 10-year JGB yield target at around 0.000% and the short-term IOER rate at -0.1%. The core CPI outlook for FY17 was cut to +0.8% from +1.1% previously, while the FY18 outlook was revised down to +1.4% from +1.5%. Data releases today include French GDP and CPI prints, Eurozone employment data, Eurozone GDP and CPI, the U.S. employment cost index, the Chicago PMI and U.S. consumer confidence.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Wed 25 Oct 2017

MACRO: Data out of IHS Markit on Tuesday showed both the U.S. manufacturing and services sectors grew faster than expected during October. The flash manufacturing PMI hit an eight month high of 54.5 (exp: 53.4) from 53.1 in September, supported by the sharpest rate of job creation since June 2015, while export orders recorded the highest rate of expansion in 14-months. The flash services PMI continued to rise during October, printing 55.9 (exp: 55.2) from 55.3 previously to mark the second fastest rate of expansion since late 2015. Commenting on the flash PMI data, Tim Moore, Associate Director at IHS Markit commented that "The US economy seems to have made a strong start to the final quarter of 2017. Resilient service sector growth and an encouraging rebound in manufacturing production combined to generate one of the sharpest rises in private sector output for two-and-a-half years during October." Equities in the U.S. rebounded from Monday's weakness, seeing the DJIA to a fresh record close largely courtesy of a +5.9% gain to 3M Co. and a +4.98% jump to Caterpillar Inc. The bourse ended +0.72% higher at 23,441.76 points, while the S&P 500 ended with a +0.16% gain at 2,569.13 points following strength across financials (+0.74%) to lead seven of eleven main sectors higher. The Nasdaq also ended trade in positive territory, holding on for a +0.18% gain as heavy trade across biotech shares restricted the bourse. Treasury yields kicked higher on Tuesday following speculation President Trump may select hawkish candidate John Taylor as the next chair of the Federal Reserve. The news saw the 10-year yield through 2.4% to the highest level since early May, ending the session around 2.414%. Oil futures ripped higher on Tuesday following reports that Saudi Arabia is willing to "do whatever it takes" to bring global crude inventories back to their five-year average. WTI settled +1.1% higher at USD $52.47 per barrel to mark the highest level since mid April, while Brent crude spiked +1.7% to USD $58.33 per barrel. The Greenback endured a whippy end to Tuesday's session, however ultimately ended higher as participants turned focus toward the upcoming European Central Bank meeting. The buck collapsed toward the end of the session on headlines that a number of republican candidates may not support the proposed tax reforms, however soon recovered on the news of the potential nomination of John Taylor as the next chair of the Federal Reserve. The DXY ended the session +0.15% higher after pushing through 114.00 against the yen.

PRECIOUS: Bullion reversed previous session gains on Tuesday as the dollar resumed its upward trajectory, ending the session precariously placed around the 100 DMA (USD $1,275.50). Further dollar gains during Asian trade on Wednesday, although modest, saw participants offer bullion throughout the session, with the yellow metal sitting around USD $1,275 leading into the Chinese open after struggling to find bids in early trade. With gold trading around USD $8 lower (loco London) than the previous session, demand out of Shanghai emerged in early Chinese flows to see the on-shore premium edge back toward USD $8 relative to London gold (opened around USD $5 premium on Tuesday). The early Shanghai interest acted only to provide a brief period of respite for bullion, as the metal soon fell through support around the 100 DMA, before making a further leg lower into the Chinese lunch break to print a session low of USD $1,271.90. Afternoon trade was a relatively subdued affair with gold continuing to trade offered toward USD $1,274, however seeing limited downside as the greenback softened to restrict further declines. Once again tested and once again held, the USD $1,270 support remains intact, while below this the early October low print (USD $1,260) and the 200 DMA (USD $1,259) converge to provide strong support. With regards to the topside, the metal is likely to see resistance around USD $1,280 and above this USD $1,290. After losing the USD $17 handle on Tuesday, silver saw reasonable support underneath USD $17.90, while the white metals followed the remainder of the precious lower. Key data today includes German IFO survey results, U.K. GDP, U.S. durable goods orders, FHFA house prices, new home sales and the Bank of Canada rates decision.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Friday 03 Nov 2017

MACRO: US House Republicans released their long anticipated tax plan on Thursday, however questions remain over whether it will have the support to guarantee congressional passage. The plan is for a complete overhaul of the tax system, and includes cutting the corporate tax rate from 35% to 20% and reducing the number of individual tax brackets to four from seven. President Trump has asked Congress to pass the bill by the Thanksgiving holiday on 23 November, an ambitious target given the breadth of the legislation. Also in the US, Trump has nominated Jerome Powell to run the Federal Reserve once Janet Yellen's term expires in February of next year. The move was widely anticipated and Powell is expected to adopt a gradual path to normalisation, similar to Yellen. US equities were mostly higher after a bumpy session, with the Dow closing at another record high. The Dow added 88.06 points, or 0.38%, to 23,523.07; the S&P 500 crept up 0.24 points, or 0.01% to 2,579.60, while the Nasdaq eased 1.60 points, or 0.02%, to 6,714.913. There were wins for REITs (+0.88%) and financials (+0.86%), with telecoms (-1.01%) and consumer discretionary (-0.77%) leading the losses. European shares were mixed EuroSTOXX fell 1.83 points, or 0.46%, to 394.94, the German DAX lost 24.58 points, or 0.18%, to 13,440.93, and the London FTSE 100 rose 67.36 points, or 0.90%, to 7,555.32. In the currencies, the US dollar index shed 0.14% to 94.68, the EUR traded up to 1.1676, while USD/JPY was as low as 113.65. US treasury yields were lower, the 2 year yield declined 0.39 bps to 1.6080% and the 10 year yield slipped 2.53 bps to 2.3468%. In commodities news, oil prices were higher as Brent added 0.36% to $60.71 and WTI firmed 0.70% to $54.68. Base metals were broadly lower, with nickel (-0.94%) leading the decline. In US economic data, the Labor Department advised that non-farm business sector productivity rose at a 3% annual rate in the third quarter of 2017. The result is a significant improvement over the 1.5% reported in the previous quarter, though analysts are saying that the rise might have been exaggerated by the hurricane activity in recent months. Unit labour costs rose 0.5% in the quarter, following a 0.3% rise in Q2. Initial jobless claims fell by 5k to 223k in the week ending October 28, continuing jobless claims fell by 15k to 1.884M. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei sits at +0.53%, the Shanghai composite is at +0.74%, the Hang Seng at +0.31%, and the ASX S&P 200 at +0.44%. Tonight we have non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, trade deficit, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing index, and factory orders out of the US.

PRECIOUS: Gold opened at $1274 in Asia and found the bid early as USD/JPY slipped below 114. The market tested the resistance at $1280 once again but met with resting orders, the SGE premium was around $7-8 which didn't prompt much action flow-wise, Gold began to drift lower late in the Asian day as the greenback rallied, settling around $1276 for a few hours following the open in London. The yellow metal popped to $1283 early in NY as the dollar was sold sharply against the yen but again there too many sellers north of $1280, the XAU finishing up only slightly ahead for the session at $1275. Silver was also buffeted by movement in the USD, the grey metal opened at $17.12 and was as low as $17.05 before the spike to a session high $17.20, finally closing near the lows at $17.07. Palladium was unable to consolidate above $1000 and platinum appeared to succumb to profit taking, closing at $996 and $924 respectively. The Philadelphia gold and silver index edged higher 0.03%. The SPDR gold trust holdings fell 0.42% to 846.04 metric tonnes. In todays trading, gold has remained within a tight $2 range as with the Japanese out for Culture Day. The SGE premium is $7-8 over loco London. The yellow metal sits at $1276.50 as I write. Silver trading quietly also, the grey metal is at $17.11 as I write. Palladium is making another move on the psychological level, currently sitting right on $999. The general trend for gold over the last week has been positive, but the market will need to find a catalyst within the host of data released tonight to push through the strong resistance at $1280. On the down side we should see close support at the 100 dma at $1275.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Monday 30 Oct 2017

MARKETS/MACRO: The S&P500 and Nasdaq Composite closed at record high's on Friday, fuelled by large gains in tech stocks following better-than-expected quarterly results from heavyweights Amazon, Microsoft, Intel and Alphabet. The S&P500 piled on +20.67 points, or +0.81%, to 2,581.07, the NASDAQ added +144.489 points, or +2.20%, to 6,701.263 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained +33.33 points, or +0.14%, to 23,434.19. The best performing sector was of course tech (+2.91%), while consumer staples (-0.86%) dragged the chain. Major European indices closed broadly higher Friday, despite Spanish stocks tumbling as the Catalonian region continues to separate itself from the central government. The FTSE Euro First 300 Index advanced +8.27 points, or +0.54% to 1,546.67 and the Euro Stoxx 600 Index pushed up +2.16 points, or +0.55% to 393.43. Regionally the picture was much the same, the FTSE100 +0.25%, DAX +0.64% and CAC40 +0.71%, while the Spanish IBEX 35 plunged -1.45%. Brent crude oil pushed above USD$60.00 a barrel for the first time in more than two years Friday, as sentiment continues to improve. With strong compliance to OPEC’s production curbs already supporting prices, comments from the Saudi Arabian Crown Prince that suggested the production cut agreement should be extended added to gains. Supply side issues also remain uncertain, with an apparent cease fire between the Kurds and Iraqis found to be incorrect, while flows out of the Turkish port of Ceyhan remain below normal levels. WTI Crude rallied +$1.26, or +2.4%, to US$53.90 a barrel. U.S yields had a minor pullback Friday with the 10y yield off -5.45bps to 2.4064% and the 2y yield down -2.74bps to 1.5875%. This was despite much better than expected 3Q GDP, which in theory should help push inflation higher and prompt higher bond yields over the longer term. One analyst was saying there are a number of factors which could push yields around this week. The Fed chair nomination is a key one – with the ‘continuity’ candidate Powell, and the ‘disruptor’, Taylor, remaining key nominees. Further, Special Prosecutor Mueller will announce the details of an indictment resulting from his probe into Russia’s alleged election meddling. The tax reform bill will be also hopefully be revealed and Treasury funding data is out. The USD rallied on the back of stronger-than-expected GDP growth, however, this proved short lived after Bloomberg reported Trump is leaning toward Powell for the Fed Chair. USDJPY eased back -0.3% to 113.70 on Friday, yet still managed to edge up +0.1% for the week. AUDUSD climbed off the low to close +0.2% higher around 0.7680.

On the data front the U.S. economy posted its best 6 month stretch of growth in three years in spite of two hurricanes, a sign that it might be breaking out of its long slow-growth trend. The rise has been primarily aided by soaring stock prices and rising business and consumer confidence. GDP for the third quarter expanded at a +3.0% annual rate (+2.6% expected) according to the Commerce Department. Personal consumption showed robust growth at +2.4% (+2.1% expected), but was down on the spring read of +3.3%. The University of Michigan reported consumer sentiment in October was the strongest it has seen in 13 years. The final reading of its consumer sentiment index was 100.7, vs. the prior months 95.7. It was modestly down on the preliminary reading of 101.1, regardless though it is a very positive result.

PRECIOUS: Gold continued to find support on Friday in the $1265-70 zone, aided by further political unrest in Catalonia and despite the positive GDP data released in the US. In Asia the yellow metal opened around $1267.50, and remained fairly steady throughout the session between $1265.50-1268.50 on very light flows through both the SGE and Globex. Over the Asia afternoon the premium on the SGE did tick up as a result of moves in the USDCNY, which drew out some modest demand. The premium moved up to $9-10 over the spot equivalent but stalled there into pm session close. Early European traders were on the offer early but again we saw good interest to buy around $1265 which kept things buoyant and eventually pushed the metal back towards $1269. In New York, the Q3 GDP data was released early and being more on the positive side weighed on the gold. There was a brief flurry below $1265 but again the metal recovered, proving that this is a fairly solid support level. As the day progressed, there was a BBG headline that Powell was again close to becoming Fed Chairman. Powell being generally pro-deregulation and not overtly hawkish prompted an about face in yields (10y quickly plunging from 2.465% to 2.42% and never recovering), which helped the yellow metal trade back through $1270 and close around $1273. In terms of positioning, the weekly CFTC announcement saw specs cut their bullish bets for a 6th straight week - this week by ~2000 contracts to a net long 173k contracts. The current net long was the least bullish overall in the past 11 weeks. Palladium was again in focus on Friday, with some fairly extreme volatility seen in a narrow $10 range on the day. The supply-demand fundamentals in this space continue to drive prices higher, with many analysts predicting prices to push through $1000 in the near term despite impressive YTD gains already.

Gold kept very quiet today in Asia, relegated to a tight $3 range thus far. The metal kicked off trading around $1273.50 with some very light two way interest which proceeded into the SGE open. We briefly touched a peak of $1273.90 before some downward pressure was applied towards the China open. This persisted with the SGE premium opening a few dollars lower from where we were trading last Friday, to sit around $8 over the loco London price. This premium remained fairly flat throughout the am session, the selling on the exchange seen in the opening 30 minutes and then reverting to light two-way interest. Spot ticked a few dollars lower around this time, although there were some resting bids on Ecomex around the $1270-71 (cash equivalent) level which kept things steady. The dollar remained steady throughout the day against the majors as did crude, all trading within 0.1% of their opening levels presently. Equities are currently mixed the ASX200 leading the region up +0.4%, followed by the Hans Seng +0.05%, while the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite lag at -0.05% and -0.75% a piece.

It is a big week ahead for the US on the data front. Today we have personal income, personal spending, and the PCE deflator. On Tuesday, we have Q3 employment cost index and the CaseShiller house price index. Wednesday, ADP employment report, ISM manufacturing and the FOMC decision.Thursday, initial jobless claims and Q3 unit labour costs and Friday ISM services, final durable goods report, and October non-farm payroll (NFP) with consensus at 310k vs -33k previously. We also await President Trump’s official nomination for the new Fed Chair.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 24 Oct 2017

MACRO: The Chicago Fed's National activity index rebounded during September, recovering to +0.17 (exp: -0.13) from a downwardly revised -0.37 (prev: -0.31) during August. Supporting the headline print higher was an improvement to production related indicators, increasing to +0.10 from -0.33 previously. Smoothing out the monthly volatility, the three-month moving average held unchanged at -0.16. U.S. equities snapped a six-session winning streak on Monday after touching all-time intra session highs in early trade, as euphoria surrounding potential tax reform abated for the time being. The DJIA pulled back -0.23% to 23,273.96 points, while broad based weakness led by industrials (-0.81%) and energy (-0.59%) saw the S&P 500 -0.40% lower to 2,564.98 points. In currency markets on Monday, USD/JPY remained in focus following the clear majority win for Shinzo Abe's ruling coalition. The pair saw strong early demand (jpy weakness) throughout Asia to break above 114.00, however came under pressure late in New York as equities softened and focus turned to President Trump's pick for the next Fed Chair. On the session the DXY was able to hold onto a modest gain of +0.1% after printing a three-month high against the Canadian dollar. Treasury yields generally tracked sideways on Monday, sliding late in trade to see both the 2-year and 10-year around 1bps lower at 1.568% and 2.375% respectively. European markets traded higher on Monday, however did see gains tempered somewhat as a result of continued tensions between Madrid and the Catalan region. The Stoxx Europe 600 added +0.16% to book a second consecutive session gain, while the German Dax ended trade +0.09% higher as the euro eased into this weeks ECB meeting. In London the FTSE 100 inched just +0.02% higher in choppy trade ahead of U.K. GDP data on Wednesday.

PRECIOUS: A relatively positive close for gold on Monday paved the way for further interest during Asian trade today, with bullion remaining buoyant throughout the session, albeit within a narrow range. Monday's price action was largely driven by USD flows, with particular focus on USD/JPY post the weekend Japanese election. Bullion saw numerous tests toward support around USD $1,270, however received a boost late in New York following reports that President Trump is "very close" to reaching a decision on the next Fed chair, with the mildly dovish Jerome Powell the current front-runner. The greenback continued its late New York weakness to underpin price action across the Asian session today, however bullion did see a brief period of weakness around the Chinese open as the on-shore premium relative to loco London gold opened softer toward USD $5. Afternoon interest was relatively modest to see gold hold mid-range into European hours, with participants looking toward this weeks ECB meeting, U.S. data releases and clues as to the next Federal Reserve chair to dictate dollar flows. Initial support for gold sits around USD $1,280, while below this we look broadly toward the 100 DMA at USD $1,275 and Monday's USD $1,270 support level. Top-side targets extent toward USD $1,290 and above this the key USD $1,300 level. Silver continued to edge higher in relatively uninspiring trade during Asian trade today, while platinum consolidated its New York gains and palladium recovered from Monday's softness. Data releases today include Markit manufacturing/services/composite PMI prints from France, Germany, the Eurozone and the U.S.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 02 Nov 2017

MACRO: The FOMC held the federal funds target rate range at 1.00 - 1.25 percent on Wednesday in line with market expectation. Sifting through the statement, the main change in language relates to the committee's view on growth, upgrading from "rising moderately" previously to be now "a solid rate". It was noted that growth continued despite recent storm activity, while September's soft payroll print was attributed to the storms. The committee's assessment of core inflation noted that it "remained soft", while descriptions of inflation expectations and inflation outlook remained unchanged. The language indicates that a December interest rate increase is still highly likely, however as always data dependant in the lead up. Jerome Powell is expected to be formally nominated by President Trump as the next chair of the Federal Reserve today. Mr Powell has been serving as the Fed Governor since 2012 and is generally viewed as a centrist on monetary policy and preferred by President Trump over more hawkish candidates such as John Taylor. An announcement is expected by the White House at 3pm Eastern time (New York) today. Private payrolls in the U.S. rebounded during October to see 235k jobs added (exp: 200k) from a downwardly revised 110k previously. The print was the largest monthly gain since May and was led by 150k jobs created within the services sector, while the goods producing sector saw 85k jobs added. The ISM's purchasing managers index eased to 58.7 (exp: 59.5) during October to follow September's 13-year high of 60.8. Inventories sunk 4.5 points to weigh upon the headline figure, while supplier deliveries declined 3 points and new orders eased 1.2 points. October's final Markit US manufacturing PMI saw a modest upwards revision to 54.6 (exp: 54.5) from an earlier estimate of 54.5. Equities in the U.S. kicked off November in a generally positive fashion, as the FOMC painted a rosy picture of the economy, however voted to keep rates on hold. The DJIA tacked on +0.25% to end at 23,435.01 points, hitting an intra-day record of 23,517.71 points in the process. The S&P 500 also printed an intra-day record before ending +0.16% higher at 2,579.36 points. The Nasdaq lagged on biotechnology weakness, closing -0.17% lower at 6,716.533 points. Markets in Europe posted their highest close in more than two years on Wednesday, buoyed by positive Chinese manufacturing data sending resource related stocks higher. The Stoxx Europe 600 ended trade +0.39% higher at 396.77 points, marking the highest close since August 2015, while the German Dax surged +1.78% to book an all-time record close as strong U.S. auto sales data underpinned a bid auto sector. In the U.K. the FTSE 100 ended trade -0.07% lower after opening in positive territory, weighed down by a stronger pound following a positive IHS Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI of 56.3 (exp: 55.9).

PRECIOUS: Wednesday's positive price action continued into Thursday's Asian session, with bullion trading well bid throughout early session pricing. A softer greenback underpinned early flows, weighed down by headlines that President Trump will nominate Jerome Powell as the next Federal Reserve chair. Tokyo bought the metal right from the TOCOM open, while demand out of China was once again evident, keeping the on-shore premium buoyant around USD $8 - $10. Currency markets in China have been interesting over the past 24 hours, with USD/CNH falling from a 6.6407 high on Wednesday to trade to a 6.5861 low within the first hour of Shanghai trade today. It's difficult to pinpoint a reason for the large move, however some analysts are suggesting it may be funding related into year-end or possibly exporters offering the dollar. Looking forward, we await the official announcement that Powell has been selected as Fed chair, with focus on any commentary from Powell as well as a potential vice-chair nomination. Bullion is finding it difficult to make a consolidated break through USD $1,280 currently and we look to this level as a directional pivot point over the near-term. Initial support sits at the recent low prints around USD $1,268, however key levels can be found below this at the 200 DMA (USD $1,261.50) and the psychological USD $1,250 level. On the topside as mentioned, resistance comes in broadly between USD $1,280 - $1,285 and a move through this level is likely to see a bullish momentum move toward USD $1,300, with extension as far as USD $1,335. Silver was able to consolidate Wednesday's +2.4% gain during Asian trade today, however lacked the support for a break above the New York high print as offers around USD $17.20 kept the price action in check. With regards to the white metals, palladium reversed early session strength into European hours and will look to hold the USD $1,000 handle to consolidate recent gains. Data releases today include Markit manufacturing PMI prints from Germany, France and the Eurozone, German employment data, U.K. Markit construction PMI and the BOE rates decision (0.25% increase expected). In the U.S. we see Initial jobless claims, non-farm productivity and Bloomberg consumer confidence. We also look for details regarding the Republican's tax reform package.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Friday 27 Oct 2017

MACRO: The European Central Bank will reduce monthly asset purchases to 30 billion euros from 60 billion euros starting in January 2018, the purchasing will extend to at least September of 2018. ECB President Mario Draghi indicated that the 0% interest rate could extend "well past" the end of of it's quantitative easing program. The dovish comments saw investors dump the euro to a 3 month low against the US dollar. In the US, House Republicans narrowly approved the Senate's budget, a move which will make an overhaul of the tax code far easier to get across the line. By approving the budget, Republicans unlocked procedural powers that allow the senate to pass a tax bill with just 51 votes, removing the need for any Democratic support. US equities were mixed with the Dow and S&P 500 rallying on the tax news while losses in biotech weighed on the Nasdaq. The Dow added 70.68 points, or 0.30%, to 23,400.14; the S&P 500 gained 5.07 points, or 0.20% to 2,562.22, while the Nasdaq eased 7.12 points, or 0.11%, to 6,556.77. There were wins for materials (+1.36%) and financials (+0.55%) while healthcare (-1.03%) and REITs (-0.55%) led the laggards. European shares were higher on the ECB decision, the EuroSTOXX climbed 4.14 points, or 1.07%, to 391.27, the German DAX jumped 179.87 points, or 1.39%, to 13,133.28, and the London FTSE 100 rose 39.29 points, or 0.53%, to 7,486.50. Big move in currency majors as the euro suffered its largest one day loss (-1.37%) since Brexit following the ECB news. The US dollar index surged 1.06% to 94.703, the EUR tumbled to 1.1641, while USD/JPY traded up to 114.06. US treasury yields were higher, the 2 year yield firmed 1.99 bps to 1.6149% and the 10 year yield added 2.19 bps to 2.4536%. In commodities news, oil prices were higher on news that Saudi Arabia support oil production cuts through to the end of 2018. Brent rose 1.52% to $59.33 while WTI gained 0.90% to $52.65. Base metals were mixed, with zinc (+1.07%) the best performer. In US economic data, the NAR pending home sales index was unchanged in September at 106, which was the downwardly revised August figure. As has been the case all year, the housing market is experiencing booming demand with very little supply. The US government's advanced report on retail inventories showed a 1% decrease in September, while wholesale inventories rose 0.3%. Analysts are saying that the advanced trade data will not alter forecasts third quarter growth. Initial jobless claims increased by 10k to 232k in the week ending October 21, continuing jobless claims fell by 3k to 1.89M. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei sits at +1.07%, the Shanghai composite is at +0.28%, the Hang Seng at +0.84%, and the ASX S&P 200 at -0.47%. Tonight we have GDP and consumer sentiment out of the US; and import prices out of Germany.

PRECIOUS: Tough session for the precious as the stronger greenback weighs on the markets. Gold opened at $1277 in Asia and found an early bid, trading to a high of $1282 late in the day. The SGE premium at $6 over loco London saw good supply onshore which capped the market. London were happy to sell into the strength and the market was back down at $1276 by the time NY came in. The metal metal popped briefly to $1281 on the news out of Europe but quickly retraced and continued it slide as the US dollar firmed against the tumbling EUR. The XAU broke through the recent support level ahead of $1270 and printed the low of $1266 just prior to market close. Silver dropped 20c to close at the low of $16.74. Palladium was the lone success story, rising almost 1% for the session after a dramatic dip and recovery during NY hours. The Philadelphia gold and silver index lost 1.84%. The SPDR Gold Trust holdings fell 0.14% to 851.95 metric tonnes. In todays trading, gold opened at $1267 and has traded a tight $2 range around that level for the remainder of the day. The SGE premium is slightly higher at $8-9 prompting little demand out of China, in any case the continued strength in USD is impeding any move higher. The yellow metal is at $1267.50 as I write. Silver trading quietly as well, the grey metal is sitting 2c off the opening level at $16.75 as I write. PGMs are drifting lower. If buoyancy in the greenback and equities continues, we could see gold testing the support at the October lows around $1260, with next key level at $1250. On the upside fist resistance at $1280 followed by the all important $1300 psychological level.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Monday 23 Oct 2017

MACRO: Weekend news out of Japan indicates Japan's ruling coalition is headed for victory in Sunday's election. Shinzo Abe's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and junior partner Komeito look likely to at least hold onto two-thirds majority, with preliminary results indicating the coalition will win 312 seats of the 465 seat lower house. A victory for Mr Abe would increase his chances of securing a third three year term as leader of the LDP when the party votes next September.
Existing home sales in the U.S. rebounded during September, adding +0.7% MoM (exp: -0.9%) to follow a -1.7% fall during August. The September print saw sales increase to an annualised rate of 5.39 million (exp: 5.30 million) from 5.35 million previously, with sales in the West increasing +3.3%, sales in the Midwest gaining +1.6%, sales in the North East holding unchanged and storm disrupted sales in the South slipping -0.9%. Housing inventory increased +1.9% during September, however is still weighing upon sales to sit -6.4% down relative to this time 12-months ago. U.S. equities extended recent gains on Friday, buoyed by hopes for proposed tax reform after the senate passed a budget blueprint for the next fiscal year. The DJIA jumped +0.71% to a fresh all-time closing record of 23,328.63 points, ending the week +0.2% higher for the sixth consecutive weekly gain. The S&P 500 saw strength across financials (+1.16%) and industrials (+1.07%) take the bourse +0.51% higher to a record closing level of 2,575.21 points, while the Nasdaq added +0.36% to also book an all-time record close at 6,629.053. On a weekly basis the S&P 500 increased +0.9% for the sixth consecutive weekly gain and the Nasdaq Composite ended +0.4% higher on the week for a fourth consecutive weekly win. Oil futures recovered from European declines in New York to end modestly higher on the session, with participants considering remarks from OPEC and a reduction in active U.S. oil rigs. WTI saw strong interest during U.S. hours to pare declines and end +0.4% higher at USD $51.50 per barrel to book a +0.6% weekly gain, while Brent crude added +0.9% to USD $57.75 to end the week around +1% higher. The greenback strengthened on Friday following news of the budget blueprint passing the senate, seeing the DXY add around +0.4% for a +0.6% weekly return. The dollar pushed higher against the yen to hit the highest level since mid July, while the euro slipped back underneath 1.1800.

PRECIOUS: Gold extended recent declines during Asian trade today, under pressure right from the market open as the greenback pushed higher against the yen following early polling results out of Japan. The Japanese election news saw a continuation of Friday's senate driven dollar rally, seeing USD/JPY above 114.00 into the Tokyo market open and taking gold on a modest stop loss run through Thursday's USD $1,277 low print. The sharp move lower was generally well supported toward USD $1,274 - $1,275, while a mild bid tone out of China buoyed the metal in early Shanghai trade. Gold settled into a relatively narrow range through the afternoon, with a modest pull-back to the greenback helping to keep the metal buoyant. As the path toward tax reform in the U.S. begins to take shape and the identity of next Fed Chair becomes clearer, we are likely to see the USD strengthen further against majors, with particular focus on the yen should Shinzo Abe's Liberal Democratic Party retain power to the extent expected. Tensions on the Korean peninsula however do continue to weigh upon participants minds and as a result we are likely to see interest toward USD $1,250 restrict further declines over the near-term. Key support levels come in at USD $1,272, USD $1,260 (early October low) and broadly around the 200 DMA at USD $1,258 and the psychological level of USD $1,250. On the top-side we see offers around USD $1,290 weighing upon moves higher and above this the key USD $1,300 level.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.