DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 12 Sep 2017

MACRO: After U.S. markets had closed, news hit the wires that the UN Security Council had unanimously agreed to adopt new sanctions on North Korea following the recent nuclear test. While the U.S. had called for an oil embargo on the rouge state, a watered down sanction following negotiations capped exports to North Korea at current levels. The sanctions also focused on two main sources of currency, banning textile exports (USD $752 million in 2016) and prohibiting all countries from authorising new work permits for North Korean workers. North Korea has warned the U.S. that it would make them pay a heavy price should tougher sanctions be approved by the Security Council.

With a lack of major economic data releases for direction, investor's were instead buoyed by a tempering of tensions on the Korean peninsula and a downgraded Hurricane Irma to send equities higher on Monday. Broad based gains saw 28 of the 30 companies within the DJIA end higher, seeing the bourse jump +1.19% to 22,057.37 points and mark the largest single session percentage gain since March 1. Strong performances across financials (+1.74%) and technology (+1.50%) helped propel the S&P 500 +1.08% higher to a record closing level of 2,488.11 points, while the Nasdaq Composite popped +1.13% higher to 6,432.264 points. The greenback recovered from recent weakness on Monday, clawing back ground against rivals as participants moved back toward risk. The DXY opened higher in Asia and continued to see interest throughout the session to end with a +0.7% gain, notably outpacing jpy as the pair pushed back above 109.00. Treasury yields pushed higher as prices declined on Friday, seeing the 10-year add around 8bps to 2.1323% and the 2-year 5.6bps higher to 1.318%. Markets across Europe posted strong gains on Monday, benefiting from a move back into risk as geopolitical tensions ease. The Stoxx Europe 600 jumped +1.04% to mark its largest gain since mid August, as insurers recovered recent session declines following reports that damage from Hurricane Irma is not as bad as first thought. In Germany the Dax spiked +1.39% as exporters benefitted from a softer euro, while in the U.K. the FTSE 100 closed +0.49% higher as insurers pushed higher.

PRECIOUS: Gold continued to soften on Monday following Asia's soft open, dragged lower amid a stronger greenback as risk returned following an easing of tensions on the Korean peninsula. The metal lost sight of USD $1,340 in early session trade, however was able to consolidate around USD $1,335 throughout the remainder of rangebound Asian trade. Interest returned in early European hours as the dollar took a brief pause, however offers toward USD $1,340 restricted any further gains and bullion once again became subject to selling pressures. Late session dollar strength saw USD/JPY back above 109.00 and with it gold broke below support around USD $1,330 to end the session -1.4% lower. ETF holdings pushed higher on Monday, seeing a further 53k ounces of inflows. Bullion saw an initial bid tone reversed during early Asian trade today, unable to push back above USD $1,330 leading into Chinese trade. Interest out of Shanghai saw the onshore premium inch toward USD $6 over London gold to keep bullion buoyant around USD $1,325, however once the far East took lunch, the yellow metal saw a brief stop run below the support to print a USD $1,323.20 low. Late afternoon interest saw gold opened in Europe toward USD $1,327, supported in part by China's return from lunch, however the greenback continues to trade bid to thwart any moves above USD $1,330. Bullion continues to remain heavy in-line with the risk off tone across the broader market and a strengthening dollar. Support toward USD $1,325 remains relatively intact and it's important to keep in mind we are now around USD $30 lower from Friday's Asian session high, while global fundamentals are largely unchanged. The next major down-side support would see USD $1,300 in play, however should the recent price action be viewed as a healthy pullback before the recommencement of the uptrend, we are unlikely to see this level tested. Data releases today include U.K. CPI and U.S. NFIB small business optimism.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Wed 6 Sep 2017

MARKETS/MACRO: U.S. stocks closed firmly lower on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 snapping a six-day rise, as investors focused on heightened tensions between the West and North Korea and worries about a lack of progress on President Donald Trump’s policy agenda. Low trading volume, particularly as investors returned from a the Labour Day long weekend, added to the downbeat tone. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its largest ingle day decline since August 17, falling -234.25 points, or -1.07%, to 21,753.31, the S&P500 sold off -18.7 points, or -0.76%, to 2,457.85 and the NASDAQ slumped -59.757 points, or -0.93%, to 6,375.574. The best performing sector was Energy (+0.56%) and the worst performing sector was Financials (-2.20%). It was a similar scenario in Europe, stocks erasing morning gains and turning lower as ongoing concerns about North Korea weighed on investors. The FTSE EuroFirst 300 index dipped -1.83 points, or -0.12% to 1,468.30 and the Euro Stoxx 600 came off -0.47 of a point, or -0.13% to 373.71. Crude oil prices rallied strongly as restarts at Texas refineries raised hopes of better demand in the US. Reports from various refineries suggest the damage hasn’t been structural and with many now making tentative steps to get back online, the outlook for crude oil demand in the region is looking better. However, with another hurricane threatening to hit the US coast, traders still remain cautious. WTI Crude rallied +$1.26, or +2.66%, to $48.55 a barrel. In treasuries, yields were hit as risk suffered, the US 10y yield decreased -9.92bps to 2.0665% and the 2y yield fell -5.2bps to 1.2900%.

July US factory orders were softer -3.3% MoM, with final durable goods orders down -6.8%. The headline drop in durables looks much worse than the underlying would suggest, capital goods orders excluding aircraft were up +1.0% MoM. The Euro zone final composite PMI dipped slightly in August to 55.7 from 55.8. While still at healthy levels it does question if momentum in the euro area upswing may be peaking.

The Fed's Brainard described inflation undershooting the Fed target for a number of years and weak underlying inflationary trends. She said “my own view is that we should be cautious about tightening policy further until we are confident inflation is on track to achieve our target”. In a similar vein, the dovish Kashkari said that there is still slack in the labour market and inflation has been low. He also noted that rate hikes may have done “real harm to the economy” and premature rate hikes are “not free”.

North Korea continued to provoke the U.S. overnight. Han Tae Song, ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva, confirmed that North Korea had successfully conducted its sixth and largest nuclear bomb test on Sunday. "The recent self defence measures by my country, DPRK, are a gift package addressed to none other than the U.S.", Han told a disarmament conference. "The U.S. will receive more 'gift packages' from my country as long as it relies on reckless provocations and futile attempts to put pressure on the DPRK," he added without elaborating. Trump on the other hand tweeted “I am allowing Japan & South Korea to buy a substantially increased amount of highly sophisticated military equipment from the United States”. This followed on from news that Trump agreed to remove the limit on allowed payloads for South Korean missiles.

PRECIOUS: After shrugging off some weak longs and trading below $1330 in the NYK session, gold continued its march higher, posting a fresh cycle high of $1344.25 before closing around $1340. In Asia the day was a bit of a grind with some moderate to good volume flowing through Ecomex with mainly selling seen. We traded a few dollars lower pre-SGE down towards $1332 but some North Korean headlines hitting the wires put a quick halt to the selling interest. Bloomberg headlines mentioned that South Korea had detected North Korean missile launch preparation and gold ran a sharp $5 higher. This was right after the SGE open, which started proceedings with a healthy $6 premium over the loco London price, already drawing out buyers. After trying towards $1339 very briefly, the market then cruised into consolidation mode hovering around $1335-36 into the European open. Their first reaction was to sell into the higher prices and the metal dipped back towards $1330, but there were some underlying bids around. Just before the NY open a breach of the previous lows just under $1330 prompted a stop loss sweep with 5,000 lots (GCZ7) trading in less than a minute down to the days lows of $1326.50. Once U.S. equities opened they were hit hard and gold mounted a recovery in line with softening yields. It was a measured climb that continued for much of the NYK day, aided by some comments from Brainard promoting caution about raising rates too fast and the N Korean diplomat to the disarmament conference in Geneva further taunting the U.S. The yellow metal peaked at $1344.25 before subsiding slightly into the close at $1340. Silver was more stubborn, rallying only modestly when comparing to gold and palladium had a real roller-coaster, pushing highing in NYK then being flattened some $35. Volume was tiny on the move so no real substance there.

With USDJPY and equity markets remaining under pressure there is good scope for gold to move higher in the coming sessions. Initial support comes in at $1338 for gold followed by the $1326-28 area. Topside resistance sits at the overnight highs $1344.25 and $1350.

It was a fairly slow day in Asia today with some initial follow through buying from macro and retail names, but we ultimately traded lower with China on the offer. We opened just beneath $1340 and there was some bids around early on which pushed the price up a few dollars. The metal traded fairly quietly in the lead up to SGE open with gold sitting around $1342. Once Shanghai opened the premium on the exchange was a few dollars lower than yesterday (~$4.00-4.50) for onshore traders and prompted some liquidation. Spot gold edged lower in sympathy and traded back through $1340 with light volume going through between $1338-1340 for the afternoon. In other markets equities are currently lower, WTI crude is up smalls (+0.14%) or $0.10 to $48.70 and the USD in narrowly mixed vs the majors. On the data front look out for U.S. trade balance, services and composite PMI's, ISM non-manufacturing and the beige book. We also have BoC rate decision.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 31 Aug 2017

MACRO: Private payrolls in the U.S. increased by 237k during August (exp: 185k) to follow an upwardly revised 201k the month prior (exp: 178k). Small business added 48k jobs, medium sized increased by 74k and large size jumped by 115k employees. The services sector was predominately responsible for the headline gain and added 204k payrolls, while within the goods producing sector mining declined 1k jobs, construction increased 18k and manufacturing posted a 16k gain. U.S. 2Q GDP outpaced initial estimates to increase +3% QoQ (exp: +2.7%) from a +2.6% estimate previously. The result was the fastest pace in more than two years and followed a +1.2% print for 1Q. Supporting the headline figure was a +3.3% increase to consumer spending (exp: +3.0%) to mark the fastest pace in 12-months on the back of higher purchases of motor vehicles, housing and utilities. The Fed's preferred inflation measure, core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased in-line with initial estimates and expectations at +0.9%. Equity markets in the U.S. ended higher on Wednesday, buoyed by the better than expected GDP print and the strong jobs data. The DJIA rebounded from late session weakness to inch +0.12% higher at 21,892.43 points, while the S&P 500 (+0.46%) saw technology (+1.07%) lead eight of eleven sectors higher to close at 2,457.59 points. The Nasdaq Composite meanwhile outperformed to post a +1.05% gain as a number of major biotech names ended with strong gains. Oil futures endured whippy trade on Wednesday to end lower as Hurricane Harvey continues to keep participants on edge and volatility high. An EIA report noting that U.S. domestic crude production declined by 5.4 million barrels during the week ended August 25 did little to support prices, as WTI ended around -1% lower underneath USD $46 per barrel, while Brent crude collapsed -2.2% following European weakness to end around USD $50.85 per barrel. European markets ended trade on Wednesday with modest gains as German CPI (harmonised) outperformed expectations during August to increase +0.2% MoM (exp:+0.1%) and +1.8% YoY (exp: +1.7%). The Stoxx Europe 600 led the major bourse's higher to post a +0.70% gain as tensions over North Korea's latest missile launch eased, while the German Dax added +0.47% to snap a three session losing streak.

PRECIOUS: The return of the greenback weighed upon bullion on Wednesday as the USD continued to reverse recent weakness, notably against the euro and Japanese yen. Interest either side of USD $1,310 kept price action varied during early Asian trade, before Chinese demand underpinned a bid tone as USD/CNY opened softer than expected. European names were initially happy to offer the metal above USD $1,310, however soon reversed course as the USD recovery stalled and gold broke to a session high of USD $1,313.65. The stronger than expected U.S. data soon pulled the metal away from the session highs, however underlying interest toward USD $1,305 restricted further declines to see gold end the session only modestly lower and relatively resilient amid firmer global equities and a stronger greenback. Asian trade on Thursday saw price action generally pinned within a USD $1,303 - $1,308 range, however the yellow metal was tested in early Chinese trade by an 800k ounce sweep to USD $1,299.50 to mark the session low. Chunky bids around the psychological figure restricted any further declines, while a modest recovery to the euro leading into European hours kept price action buoyant. Bullion continues to battle against participant's fading rallies, however interest has so far been deep enough to absorb selling pressure and consolidate recent gains above USD $1,300. Short term direction is likely to be dictated by Friday's U.S. jobs data, with expectations that bullion holds the recent USD $1,300 - $1,315 range leading into the print. From a support standpoint it is worth noting that USD $1,300 Dec gold is currently sitting around USD $1,295 spot. Data today includes French CPI, German retail sales and employment data, Eurozone CPI and employment data, U.S. initial jobless claims, personal income / spending, PCE, Chicago PMI, Bloomberg consumer confidence and pending home sales.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Monday 11 Sep 2017

MACRO: U.S. wholesale inventories outpaced expectations during July, adding +0.6% MoM (exp: +0.4%) from +0.6% previously. Auto inventories increased +0.2% following a +1.1% surge in June, while inventories ex autos, the component that it used in the calculation of GDP, posted a +0.7% gain. Durable goods inventories pushed +0.9% higher, underpinned by a +1.1% increase to machinery, the largest rise in three and a half years. Consumer credit in the U.S. spiked to USD $18.499 billion during July according to data released by the Federal Reserve on Friday, outpacing expectations centered around USD $15.00 billion, and by far and away exceeding June's USD $11.827 billion print. The headline figure was led by increases to non-revolving credit such as student loans, jumping to USD $15.8 billion from USD $7.1 billion during June. Equity markets in the U.S. ended trade mixed on Friday, as investor's considered the potential for a further missile test from North Korea over the weekend, in addition to Hurricane Irma's arrival off the Florida coast. The DJIA edged +0.06% higher to 21,797.79 points, however posted a -0.9% decline over the week. The S&P 500 saw weakness across energy (-1.06%) and technology (-0.86%) take the bourse -0.15% lower at 2,461.43 points, while over the week the bourse handed back -0.6%. The greenback continued to decline on Friday, as concerns over the impacts of recent weather events grow. The DXY index ended trade around -0.2% lower after paring Asian declines in early New York trade, with USD/JPY falling below 108.00 for the first time since November 2016. Meanwhile, treasury yields ended marginally softer on Friday to cap off a week of declines. The 10-year yield inched up 1bps to 2.0507%, however over the duration of the week, declined 10bps to mark the largest weekly fall since mid-April. U.S. oil futures slumped on Friday as the recovery in Texas following Hurricane Harvey begins. WTI booked a -3.3% fall to underneath USD $47.48 per barrel, however was able to end the week +0.4% higher. Meanwhile Brent crude fared marginally better, ending -1.3% down on the session, however over the week tacked on a healthy +2%. European markets ended choppy trade marginally higher on Friday, unable to break through the headwinds created by a strengthening euro. The Stoxx Europe 600 ended trade +0.15% higher, while the German Dax recovered from early session declines to gain +0.06% as imports into the country increased +2.2% MoM. Equities in the U.K. shed -0.26% as the big miners lost ground following soft Chinese exports numbers.

PRECIOUS: A week is a long time in financial markets, as evidenced by early price action in Asia today. Following a USD $10 sweep higher only seven days ago on the back of North Korea's hydrogen bomb test, bullion took an about-face today, declining by the same margin as the rouge state's Foundation Day came and went with no further test. After ending trade on Friday at the highest level in 12-months, a leg higher to the greenback on Monday took bullion through USD $1,340 on the open, as short term players exited weekend spec positions to wipe the 'Foundation Day risk premium' from the metal. An opportunistic move back above USD $1,340 was well sold to see the metal back toward USD $1,335 into the Chinese open. Interest out of the Far East saw the on-shore premium push out to around USD $5 to restrict further declines to bullion, however the dollar recovery saw both USD/CNH and USD/CNY back above 6.50 following Friday's rout, keeping top-side moves in check leading toward European hours. The latest CFTC data shows net futures and options length has increased by a further 1.8 million ounces as of last Tuesday, and we are likely to see this figure stretched even higher following the late week price action above USD $1,350. Following the early session move lower, participant's will be looking toward USD $1,325 - $1,330 as the first support level for gold, while moves higher will run up against resistance at USD $1,350 and above this, Friday's high of USD $1,357. Silver disappointed on Friday to end the session underneath USD $18, while the metal saw further weakness during Asian trade today. The grey metal saw modest flows in early hours to trade as low as USD $17.77 and will look to USD $17.50 as the first major support level. With regards to the white metals, platinum collapsed in New York on Friday following a move above USD $1,022 and will need to hold USD $1,000 to restrict a technical break lower, while palladium outperformed on Monday to add nearly +2% and recoup some of Friday's -3.3% fall.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 5 Sep 2017

MACRO: U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley told the Security Council that North Korean leader Kin Jong-un, "is begging for war" and that, "the time has come for us to exhaust all of our diplomatic means before it's too late." Washington are preparing a new sanctions resolution to be presented to the council, with a view to vote on it early next week. Meanwhile in an attempt to ease tensions, Swiss President, Doris Leuthard has offered her country's services as a mediator, noting that "We are ready to offer our role for good services as a mediator. I think in the upcoming weeks a lot will depend on how the U.S. and China can have influence in this crisis." In related developments, German Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke to President Trump on the phone and agreed that tougher EU sanctions are required, while Japan is planning, in the event of war, for a mass evacuation of nearly 60,000 Japanese citizens currently in South Korea.

Oil futures ended trade on Monday marginally higher in thin trade due to the U.S. Labor Day Holiday. As refineries started to come back online following the devastation caused by Hurricane Harvey, WTI (+0.25%) pushed higher during European hours before easing late into the early close, while Brent crude also eased late to book a -0.6% decline. With regard to currency majors, the USD softened modestly in mixed trade on Monday, seeing the DXY end -0.01% lower as participants moved into safe-haven assets such as the yen. Stocks in London lost ground on Monday following the weekend developments on the Korean peninsula, while a softer than expected Markit Construction PMI print of 51.1 (exp: 52.0) weighed further upon on the bourse. The FTSE 100 pulled back -0.36%, while mining stocks, predominately gold related caught a bid. Equities across Europe saw weakness on Monday as participants moved into safe-haven assets following the North Korean hydrogen bomb test on Sunday. The Stoxx Europe 600 ended trade -0.52% lower to snap a three session winning streak, while the German Dax posted a -0.33% decline.

PRECIOUS: Following the flight to safety on Monday after North Korea's hydrogen bomb test, bullion continued to see strength during Asian trade on Tuesday as the risk-off theme continued. Monday's shortened session as a result of the U.S. Labor Day Holiday saw gold gap higher at the open, printing USD $8 above Friday's closing level, before surging toward USD $1,338 amid heavy early interest. Mild profit taking saw bullion temper somewhat during Asian afternoon trade, however interest returned once again in Europe on the back of North Korean headlines, seeing the metal to a USD $1339.90 high during early European hours, before further profit taking and thin liquidity into the close saw gold to USD $1,334.25, ending around +0.7% higher than Friday's closing level. After running into resistance on Monday toward USD $1,340 and importantly around the U.S. Presidential Election Day high print (Nov 2016), bullion once again tested this level during Asian trade following headlines that North Korea were moving ICBM's toward launch sites. As we saw on Monday, the headline driven gains proved to be un-sustainable and bullion settled into a narrow range either-side of USD $1,335 during the afternoon, seeing resilient price action on the back of the underlying risk-off tone. We continue to see interest on dips underneath USD $1,335 and moves below USD $1,330 and USD $1,325 are likely required to flush out any short term long positioning that has accumulated so far this week. With a move through USD $1,340 proving to unattainable thus far, we wait for both further developments out of the Korean peninsula and New York's appetite for bullion today following their return from holiday. It is worth noting that Saturday, September 9, is North Korea Foundation Day and such days in the past have been used for missile testing. After reporting yesterday that palladium was testing toward USD $1,000, the white metal came within a whisker of the figure briefly on Monday, before being unceremoniously dumped in illiquid conditions. From a support standpoint USD $950 should restrict further declines, while we are expecting the metal to once again move toward USD $1,000 over the near-term on the back of tightening supplies. Data today includes U.S. Factory orders, durable goods orders and capital goods orders.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Wed 30 Aug 2017

MARKETS/MACRO: It was a whippy night, with the EUR, JPY and US bonds strengthening initially, only to all experience sharp turn-arounds later in the session. All major European bourses ended lower on the day, but the New York session turn-around in sentiment towards “risk on” saw US stocks grind higher (after opening lower) and US Treasury bonds fall from their highs. All in all, a confusing night of price action no matter how you cut it. The Dow gained +56.97 points, or +0.26%, to 21,865.37, the S&P500 rallied +2.06 points, or +0.08%, to 2,446.30 and the Nasdaq inched up +18.871 points, or +0.30%, to 6,301.886. The best performing sector was industrials (+0.65%), while materials lagged (-0.56%). European equities fell to more than six month lows after North Korea’s missile launch over Japan rattled investors nerves and the EUR rose. The FTSE Euro First 300 index relinquished -14.35 points, or -0.98% to 1,448.19 and the Euro Stoxx 600 slumped -3.87 points, or -1.04% to 368.42. Regionally the FTSE100 slid -0.87%, DAX -1.46% and CAC40 -0.94%. Crude oil prices dipped WTI down -$0.14, or -0.30%, to US$46.43 a barrel, the lowest level in five weeks. Severe flooding due to tropical storm Harvey is affecting refinery capacity and therefore crude demand, with the largest refinery in the US currently operating at just 60% of capacity. Treasuries bull flattened, the U.S 2y yield falling -0.78bps to 1.3175% and 10y yield was off -2.79bps to 2.129%.

On the data front, U.S. consumer confidence strengthened in August to the strongest level in five months buoyed by views on current business conditions. The Conference Board said its Consumer Confidence Index rose to a reading of 122.9 in August (120.7 expected) from a downwardly adjusted 120.0 in July (121.1 prior). The data was broadly positive with the expectations sub-index rising to 104 from 103, while the present situation sub-index leaping to 151.2 from 147.8.

The White House issued a Statement by President Trump (not a tweet) on North Korea that read: “The world has received North Korea's latest message loud and clear. This regime has signalled contempt for its neighbours, for all members of the United Nations, and for minimum standards of acceptable international behaviour. Threatening and destabilising actions only increase the North Korean regime's isolation in the region and among all nations of the world. All options are on the table”. This was followed by a statement by the U.S Ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, who said that the North Korea missile was “absolutely unacceptable and irresponsible. No country should have missiles flying over them like those 130 million people in Japan. It’s unacceptable”. She added, North Korea has “violated every single U.N. Security Council resolution that we’ve had and so I think something serious has to happen”. While these are combative statements, markets seemed to have been reassured by the lack of Trump's signature 'tweets' and comments from the Pentagon. The better U.S data also helped.

PRECIOUS: It has been a particularly volatile 24+ hours for gold post the North Korean regime's latest missile test directly over Japan. The news broke yesterday during the hour long Comex break when there were no active markets for precious metals. When Ecomex reopened, gold immediately gapped $5 higher, opening at $1316 and running instantly to just shy of $1320. This was quickly smashed as traders scrambled to cover sell orders above $1315, the metal trading all the way back down toward $1313.50, before a second wave of buying took us to fresh 1 year highs around $1324.50... and this was all in the opening 20 minutes! From there we gradually retreated back towards $1315 as the SGE open approached. There was some speculative interest around on the SGE initially with the premium opening at $3 and quickly moving up to $5. This did taper off after the first hour of trade however, keeping spot gold between a $1315-18 range, yet still turning over serious volume (~70,000 lots Dec gold in first 5 hours - triple the usual). As London came online specs and momentum traders were looking for offers. The yellow metal traded to fresh intra-day highs around $1326 around the same time USDJPY hit the lows of the day at 108.27. Things reversed rather dramatically from there and into NY. USDJPY reversed its losses all the way back to 109.90, U.S. 10y bond yields moved back above 2.1% and gold gave up all the days gains and some, trading as low as $1305.40 late in NYK. Some later buying did emerge however and we closed around $1310 - exactly where it closed the previous day. Gold vols spiked on the day with 1m atm vol sitting around 12.6%, 3m 12.45%, 6m 12.9% and 1y 13.8%. EFP's also moved considerably to the right, trading around $5.0 (Dec) on Monday and moving out towards $5.5 yesterday - suggesting good selling in Dec gold on the day. Technically, it will be important for the metal to hold above $1295-1300 (April + June highs) to keep the recent upward momentum intact. For now we feel pullbacks into this area will represent good buying opportunities for a test of $1337-38 in the short to medium term.

The metals were still volatile today, albeit in a much smaller range and on about half the volume of yesterday. Gold opened around $1310 and crept up a few dollars over the first hour trade. Some early selling from Japanese banks and corporates quickly put a stop to that however and the spot price slid back lower to $1307.70 where it stabilised on the back of some Ecomex buying. The market held steady from there leading into the SGE open, with good two way interest seen through Dec gold considering the time of day. Shanghai were modest buyers on the open which helped spot gold tick back through $1310 and back up to the earlier highs. Decent two way interest just above $1310 persisted into the afternoon with the price action and volume subsiding as we moved further into the afternoon. Silver followed gold almost tick for tick throughout the day, platinum tested towards $1000 again but couldn't break through and palladium remained flat. In other markets equities were generally higher - at time of writing Nikkei +0.7%, Hang Seng +0.75%, while the Shanghai Composite and ASX200 were flat. The major currencies were fairly quiet vs the USD, with the exception of the AUD which is currently up +35 pips (+0.4%) on the day at 0.7985 following better than expected building approvals. Ahead on the data calendar today look out for Euro Zone consumer confidence, German CPI and U.S ADP employment, Personal consumption and GDP figures. All the best.

Some Bloomberg headlines just doing the rounds now: "North Korean Leader Kim Jong Unsaid the test-firing of a missile over Japan on Tuesday was a 'meaningful prelude' to containing the American territory of Guam, adding he will continue to watch the response of the U.S. before deciding on further action. Markets little to no reaction so far.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Friday 8 Sep 2017

MACRO: U.S. stocks slipped on Thursday after banking stocks took a hit from declining rates. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped -22.86 points, or -0.10%, to 21,784.78, the S&P500 inched down -0.44 of a point, or -0.02%, to 2,465.10 and the NASDAQ crept up +4.555 points, or +0.07%, to 6,397.869. The best performing sector on the day was Healthcare (+1.1%), while Teleco's collapsed (-2.1%). European equities rose as the ECB left monetary policy unchanged and Euro-zone growth figures showed a modest improvement. The FTSE Euro First Index gained +3.36 points, or +0.23% to 1,473.20 and the EuroStoxx 600 Index ticked up +1.0 point, or +0.27% to 374.95. Regionally, the DAX improved +0.67% to 12,296.63, the FTSE100 added +0.58% to 7,396.98 and the CAC40 inched +0.26% higher to 5,114.62. Oil futures were little changed, WTI off -$0.03, or -0.06%, to US$49.13 a barrel, as the recovery from Hurricane Harvey stalled at the same time Hurricane Irma threatens to disrupt the sector in Florida. The outlook for demand from refineries remains unknown, with damage still being assessed, although some analysts are predicting damage to the crude oil market may be greater than expected. EIA data showed inventories of crude oil jumped by 4.58 million barrels last week, much greater than expected. The dollar continued its slide with the DXY falling to its lowest levels since January 2015 (91.405). EUR/USD surged as Draghi hinted at starting to reduce the ECB's bond buying program, USD/JPY continues to slip to touch a low of 108.05 and AUD/USD is now comfortably sitting above 0.8000. Yields across the globe fell yesterday, with the U.S. 2-year yield relinquishing -3.81bps to 1.264% and the 10-year down -6.24bps to 2.042%. In data, final euro area Q2 2017 GDP was as expected, at +0.6% QoQ, although the annual rate edged up to +2.3% YoY which marks the the highest since Q1 2011. Initial U.S. jobless claims rose to a two year high of +298k (+236k prior), reportedly almost exclusively due to Hurricane Harvey. The ECB maintained rates and upgraded its growth forecast this year by +0.3% to 2.2%, with ECB president Mario Draghi noting that there has yet to be a convincing uptrend in core inflation. During the press conference after the release, Draghi’s first statement was about the strength and broadness of growth, which helped maintain EUR gains. His second statement was about the EUR, but it was targeted at “volatility” rather than strength. Notably, when considering the EUR on a broad basket basis, the appreciation has not been as sharp. He later acknowledged strength, but seemed not concerned. Draghi noted that “financial conditions have tightened”, but “are still broadly supportive.” On QE, he said that they have had “very preliminary discussions” on various scenarios (length, size). The bulk of QE decisions will probably be taken in October (ECB meets 26 Oct).

PRECIOUS: Bullion endured whippy trade on Thursday, in particular around the ECB announcement as the recent USD depreciation accelerated. Early Asian demand kept price action buoyant above USD $1,330, however the market lacked the impetus required to see gold re-test a break of USD $1,340 after recent moves through the level failed to consolidate. A mild bid out of China supported a move back above USD $1,335, while early currency flows from Europe saw the greenback under pressure as bullion once again pushed toward USD $1,340. ECB president Draghi's comments saw the euro extend its recent gains, making a sustained break above 1.20 to drive broader USD weakness and facilitate a sustained move above USD $1,340 for bullion, while interest out of New York kept price action buoyant into the close to end toward the session high. Against the recent trend, ETF's saw outflows of 27k ounces on Thursday. Following a subdued start to Asian trade on Friday, gold turned sharply higher following the USD/CNH fix. After fixing higher at 6.5005 the currency pair collapsed to 6.4520, seeing the on-shore premium markedly higher and with it bullion toward USD $1,355. Late Asian trade saw gold surge to a USD $1,357.50 high following reports of a magnitude 8.1 earthquake striking off the Pacific coast of Mexico. A break through USD $1,356 indicates a bullish break of the uptrend from the December low and this level will be key to instigating a push toward the June 2016 high of USD $1,375. Levels to watch today on the top-side include the aforementioned USD $1,356 and USD $1,375, while initial support sits broadly around USD $1,348 - $1,350 and below this USD $1,340. From a geopolitical perspective, bullion is likely to see support into Friday's close as participants position themselves for a potential North Korean missile test this Saturday on the rouge state's Foundation Day. Data releases today includes U.K. industrial/manufacturing production, U.K. trade balance and U.S. wholesale inventories.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Monday 4 Sep 2017

MACRO: Tensions in North Korea have escalated further over the weekend following reports that the rouge state tested a hydrogen bomb on Sunday. The detonation is the sixth nuclear test since 2006 and has been estimated to be approximately ten times the strength of the most recent test in September last year. The explosion was heralded by a magnitude 6.3 earthquake at a depth of around zero meters, about 10km from North Korea's Punggye-ri nuclear test site and was felt across in the border in China. North Korean media reported the test as a "perfect success" and it is thought the hydrogen bomb tested is capable to being mounted on one of the recently tested ICBM's. World powers have lined up to condemn the test, with U.S. President Donald Trump labelling the provocative actions of the hermit state as "hostile and dangerous", while U.S. Defence Secretary Jim Mattis noted that "Any threat to the United States or its territories, including Guam or our allies, will be met with a massive military response, a response both effective and overwhelming,"

Nonfarm payrolls released in the U.S. on Friday showed job creation was softer than expected during August. Payrolls increased +156k (exp: +180k) to follow a downwardly revised +189k (prev: +209k) during July, while June was revised lower to +210k from +231k previously. The Unemployment rate surprised, increasing to 4.4% (exp: 4.3%) from 4.3% prior, while the broader 'U-6' measure of unemployment and underemployment, which includes those who have stopped looking and those in part-time jobs who want full-time positions, held at 8.6%. Wage growth printed underneath expectations during August, with average hourly earnings increasing +0.1% MoM (exp: +0.2%) from +0.3% previously, while on an annualised basis wages held at +2.5% YoY (exp: +2.6%). Markit's manufacturing PMI improved to 52.8 (exp: 52.5) from 52.5 previously, while the ISM manufacturing index jumped to the highest level since 2011 at 58.8 (exp: 56.5) from 56.3 previously. U.S. equities ended higher on Friday as the August jobs report dampened the expected pace of interest rate increases. The DJIA tacked on +0.18% to end the session at 21,987.56 points, as big players such as General Electric (+2.4%) and Chevron (+1.06%) helped to support the bourse higher. The S&P 500 was buoyed by gains to energy (+0.81%) and materials (+0.63%) to end +0.20% higher at 2,476.55 points, while the Nasdaq tacked on +0.10% to 6,435.331 points after recovering from early declines. Oil futures ended mixed in New York on Friday, unable to climb back into positive territory on a weekly basis following volatility around Hurricane Harvey. WTI added around +0.1% to USD $47.30 per barrel, while Brent crude pulled back -0.2% to USD $52.75 per barrel. Treasury yields edged higher on Friday as prices declined, seeing the 10-year 3.5bps higher to around 2.157%, while the 2-year added 1.6bps to 1.345%. European markets posted gains on Friday following a report that the ECB will likely wait until December to announce their tapering plans. The German Dax led regional gains to add +0.72% as a softening euro buoyed exporters, while the Stoxx Europe 600 ended +0.60% higher. In the U.K. the FTSE 100 tacked on +0.11% as stronger than expected manufacturing data supported the bourse.

PRECIOUS: Gold saw strength on Friday following the softer than expected payrolls data out of the U.S., briefly trading as high at USD $1,329.50 in whippy trade around the figure, before consolidating around USD $1,325 into the close. Bullion had a generally quiet lead-up into the U.S. session, as participants were more than happy to take a back-seat into the jobs data. The yellow metal touched the session high on the payrolls release, however soon reversed these gains before steadily pushing higher into the close. Underpinning the move higher were a further 500k ounces of inflows into ETF's on Friday (one of the largest gains this year), while the latest COTR data shows further increases to long positioning into the end of August. The weekend developments on the Korean peninsula saw gold sharply higher during Asian trade on Monday, underpinned by the metals safe haven demand and a softer greenback. Bullion gapped higher on the open to touch a USD $1,337 high in early pricing, running into resistance around the U.S. Presidential Election high print (Nov 2016), before easing in early Chinese trade as the on-shore premium relative to London gold eased to around USD $2. A relatively muted Asian afternoon session gave way to early bids out of Europe, seeing the metal toward USD $1,338 to retest a break of the early session move. Expectations are that the precious complex will continue to see support as uncertainty drives safe-haven demand, while further speculative long interest on Comex is likely and ETF demand should underpin broad support. The Labor Day holiday in the U.S. today is likely to temper interest following the early session moves, while from a data standpoint we do not see anything that may influence bullion's direction. Key resistance for gold comes in toward USD $1,350 and then the 2016 high print of USD $1,375. With regards to the remainder of the precious complex, palladium continues to outperform and move ever-closer to platinum. The white metal gained nearly +5% on Friday in New York to end the session around USD $980 as the continued supply deficit underpinned gains, while further interest during Asian trade today saw the metal within a whisker of USD $1,000.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 29 Aug 2017

MACRO: The Commerce Department reported on Monday that the U.S. trade deficit increased during July to USD $65.1 billion (exp: $64.5 billion), a 1.7% increase from USD $64.0 billion during June. A -1.3% fall to exports was the main drag on the headline figure, as exports of motor vehicles sunk -8%. Wholesale inventories pushed higher during July, increasing +0.4% MoM (exp: +0.3%) to follow a +0.6% gain during June. Equity markets in the U.S. ended trade on Monday little changed, with investor's cautious as the full impact of hurricane Harvey becomes evident. The DJIA eased just -0.02% lower to 21,808.40 points, while gains to healthcare (+0.60%) and technology (+0.27%) helped to offset weakness across financials (-0.48%) and energy (-0.47%) as the S&P 500 edged +0.05% higher. Treasury yields eased marginally on Monday as a strong auction for 5-year notes supported demand across the board. The 10-year slipped 1.1bps to 2.159%, while the 2-year declined 0.4bps to 1.334%. In currency majors, the euro continued to push higher on Monday, albeit in thin trade as London took leave for the summer bank holiday. The common currency edged toward 1.20 against the USD, building upon a +1.3% gain last week to touch a more than two year high. Oil futures traded under pressure on Monday, with expectations that refinery shutdowns in the Gulf of Mexico as a result of hurricane Harvey will result in excess supply. WTI ended trade around -2.7% lower at USD $46.57 per barrel, while Brent crude saw declines tempered to end just under -1% lower at USD $51.89 per barrel. European equity markets suffered against the headwinds of a stronger euro on Monday, seeing the Stoxx Europe 600 -0.48% lower, while the export heavy German Dax declined -0.37%.

PRECIOUS: Bullion kicked of the week on a positive note, finally closing back above USD $1,300 to mark the highest level in 9-months. The yellow metal traded with a modest bid tone throughout Asian / European hours, however it wasn't until New York opened that we saw the metal through USD $1,300. A sharp stop loss run through the figure and recent triple top resistance saw bullion to a USD $1,312.05 session high, pinned toward the high print as large Comex open interest at a strike of USD $1,310 kept the price action buoyant. ETF's continued to increase holdings on Monday, with a further 330k ounces of inflows recorded and this is expected to continue now the metal has broken a number of technical levels on the top-side. Reports that North Korea had fired a missile over Northern Japan hit the wires during the break between Comex sessions (pre-Asia open) on Tuesday, seeing USD/JPY sharply lower (109.26 to 108.34) as stops below 108.60 were triggered. The escalation in geopolitical tensions underpinned early session demand for bullion, as gold ripped higher on the open to trade as high as USD $1,324.50. The yellow metal saw a modest pull back leading into Chinese trade, however demand was once again evident out of the far East to keep the metal buoyant above USD $1,315. Fresh interest out of Europe provided further support late in afternoon trade, driven by a leg higher to EUR/USD, breaking above 1.20 for the first time since early 2015. The threat from North Korea has taken an unprecedented turn today and we expect safe haven demand coupled with a softer greenback to provide the impetus for further gains to bullion over the near term. Support for the metal initially sits around USD $1,308 - $1,310, while top-side targets extend to USD $1,337 (U.S. Presidential Election Day high) and USD $1,350 beyond this. Silver turned higher with gold on Monday to book a +2.22% gain, while the grey metal opened above USD $17.50 on the back of geopolitical concerns during Asian trade today and spent the session consolidating the move higher. Platinum has benefitted from the safe haven demand of the precious complex to sit within striking distance of USD $1,000 today, while palladium has lagged somewhat in recent sessions, however caught a bid late in Asian trade today to test toward USD $950. Data today includes U.K. house prices, French GDP, U.S. house prices and U.S. Conference Board consumer confidence.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 7 Sep 2017

MACRO: President Trump surprised his fellow Republicans and struck a deal with Democrats on Wednesday, extending the U.S. debt ceiling to provide Government funding until December 15. In a meeting between congressional leaders of both parties at the White House, President Trump agreed to the Democrat's requested three month extension, overruling Republican's and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin who were seeking an extended term. In keeping with the 'surprise' theme, the Bank of Canada shocked the market on Wednesday by increasing interest rates to +1%. The central bank increased rates by 25bps to follow a hike in July, while leaving the door open for further increases this year. U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman, Stanley Fischer announced his resignation on Wednesday, citing personal reasons in a letter to president Donald Trump. The U.S. ISM Non-manufacturing index increased to 55.3 (exp: 55.6) from 53.9 previously during August. Equities in the U.S. ended trade higher on Wednesday, buoyed by the developments in Washington and a lack of news out of the Korean peninsula. The DJIA ended trade +0.25% higher at 21,807.64 points as strong performances to Home Depot (+2.37%) and Exxon Mobile (+2.07%) helped support the bourse higher. The S&P 500 saw strength from energy (+1.64%) lead nine of eleven major sectors higher as the bourse gained +0.31% to 2,465.54 points, while the Nasdaq Composite tacked on +0.28% to 6,393.314 points. Oil futures pushed higher on Wednesday as renewed demand support prices following the re-opening of refineries after Hurricane Harvey. WTI found interest in Europe and the U.S. following subdued Asian trade, adding just over +1.1% to settle at USD $49.16 per barrel, while Brent crude tacked on +1.5% to USD $54.20 per barrel. European equities held broadly unchanged during trade on Wednesday, with participants awaiting the all important ECB meeting on Thursday. The Stoxx Europe 600 crept just +0.06% higher, while a +3.5% gain to new car registrations in Germany buoyed auto makers to take the German Dax to a +0.5% return. The U.K. FTSE 100 underperformed on Wednesday, weighed down by a stronger pound to book a -0.3% decline to 7,354.13 points.

PRECIOUS: Gold saw some of its risk premium wiped away during U.S. trade on Wednesday, sliding below USD $1,340 as immediate concerns over the U.S. debt ceiling subsided. A strong close in New York on Tuesday saw participants taking profit in early Asian trade on Wednesday, pressuring gold back below USD $1,340 as Tokyo turned sellers. Underlying physical interest out of China restricted further declines into European hours, before buyers once again regained the ascendency to push bullion higher. News out of Washington of an agreement on Government funding saw U.S. yields higher and gold lower in New York, collapsing to a USD $1,331.80 session low to book a -0.4% decline. ETF's once again added to stocks on Wednesday, recording just over 30k ounces of inflows. Asian trade on Thursday saw bullion struggle for direction throughout the majority of trade, well supported toward USD $1,330, however unable to make headway higher until European participants filtered in. The yellow metal was once again broadly supported by interest out of China, bouncing off the session low as the far East opened for business, before taking a further leg higher late in the session as a bid euro into today's ECB meeting weighed upon the greenback. Expectations are that the upcoming ECB meeting will provide direction for bullion (more so the USD) in lieu of headlines out of the Korean peninsula, however shocks to the down-side should the central bank underwhelm will likely be limited to support toward USD $1,325 - $1,330. Silver once again failed to break above USD $18 during New York trade on Wednesday, however rebounded into European hours today to keep within striking distance of the figure. Data releases today include Eurozone GDP, the all important ECB meeting, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims and Bloomberg U.S. consumer confidence.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Friday 1 Sep 2017

MACRO: Initial jobless claims in the U.S. inched just 1,000 higher to 236,000 (exp: 238,000) during the week ended August 26. The weekly print saw the four-week moving average ease by 1,250 to 236,750, while continuing claims fell by 12,000 to 1.942 million (exp: 1.951 million) during the week ended August 19. Consumer spending in the U.S. increased less than expected during July, printing at +0.3% MoM (exp: +0.4%) to follow an upwardly revised +0.2% gain in June (prev: +0.1%), while personal income increased +0.4% MoM (exp: +0.3%) from a flat read previously. Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) edged +0.1% MoM higher during July, while on an annualised basis declined to +1.4% YoY (exp: +1.4%) from +1.5% previously, marking the smallest gain since December 2015. Pending home sales in the U.S. unexpectedly declined during July, sliding -0.8% MoM (exp: +0.3%) to follow a downwardly revised +1.3% (prev: +1.5%) the month prior. July marked the fourth decline in five months as supply constraints continue to weigh upon sales. Equity markets in the U.S. ended the month on a positive note as each of the three major bourse's closed higher on Thursday. A second consecutive session rally within the biotechnology space helped the Nasdaq Composite +0.95% higher, notching a fresh record closing level of 6,428.662 points on the way to a +1.3% monthly return. The DJIA tacked on +0.25% to 21,948.10 points for a +0.3% gain over the month, while strength across healthcare (+1.69%) and materials (+0.83%) led nine of eleven sectors higher to see the S&P 500 to a +0.57% gain and +0.1% higher on the month. The greenback traded under pressure on Thursday to reverse early European gains in New York, weighed down by comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin who noted that a weaker currency may be good for trade. The DXY index ended the session around -0.35% lower to see EUR/USD reclaim the 1.19 handle and USD/JPY below 110.00. Oil futures reversed recent weakness on Thursday as refineries compete for supplies. WTI jumped +3.2% to end at USD $47.10 per barrel, however ended the month -5.9% lower, while Brent crude surged +4% to USD $52.80 per barrel and limit the monthly decline to -0.5%. European equity markets performed strongly on Thursday, as support from the resources sector underpinned a bid tone following upbeat manufacturing data out of China. The Stoxx Europe 600 jumped +0.77%, however it wasn't enough to drag the bourse into positive territory on a monthly basis, with the index ending -1.1% lower over August as a stronger euro continues to weigh upon exporters. The German Dax ended the session +0.44% higher as jobless claims fell 5,000 in August and the unemployment rate held at a record low of 5.7%, while in the U.K. the FTSE 100 surged +0.89% as the big miners welcomed the latest Chinese data and the pound softened.

PRECIOUS: Big day for the precious as the flattening yield curve and escalating tension with North Korea supported the markets. Gold was heavy from the open in Asia, as producer sales weighed on the market. There was a sharp sell off that had the market testing the $1300 support just before lunch, this was swiftly rejected though with gold consolidating around $1302-1303 for the Asian afternoon. London were on the offer early and took gold back up to $1307 as the US dollar eased against the euro. The yellow took off on the NY open, prompted by the weaker PCE data and fuelled by a flattening of the US yield curve, and did not stop until the high of $1323 just prior to the close. Silver had a big day, the grey metal climbed over 30 off the low to finish at $17.56. Platinum once again tested the psychological $1000 barrier it crossed earlier in the week but met with strong resistance, while the upward move for palladium was a little more muted. The Philadelphia gold and silver index rose 2.23%. In todays trading, gold has remained within a tight range between $1318 and $1321 ahead of tonight's NFP release, the yellow metal is at $1318.50 as I write. Silver is drifting slightly, the grey metal is at $17.49 as I write. PGMs are flat.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Monday 28 Aug 2017

MACRO: Janet Yellen used her speech at Jackson Hole on Friday to defend the regulations put in place following the global financial crisis, at odds with the position taken by President Trump. Yellen noted that the reforms put in place by the Obama administration have 'strengthened our financial system,' and made it 'substantially safer'. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi provided little clues as to the banks' tapering strategy during his speech at Jackson Hole, instead focusing on global productivity. Durable goods orders in the U.S. slumped -6.8% MoM during July (exp: -6.0%) to follow a +6.4% gain the month prior. The print was the largest fall in three years and predominately a result of a sharp decline to the volatile aircraft category as Boeing reported 22 new orders in July versus 184 in June. In more positive news, excluding transportation durable goods added +0.5% MoM (exp: +0.4%) to mark the third consecutive monthly gain, while shipments of core capital goods, the category that is used in the calculation of GDP, increased +1.0% (exp: +0.2%) from an upwardly revised +0.6% gain during June (prev: +0.1%). Equity markets in the U.S. ended generally higher on Friday, eking out modest gains as Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi did little to entice investor's. The DJIA ended the session +0.14% higher at 21,813.67 points to hang onto a +0.6% weekly gain, while the S&P 500 gained +0.17% to end the session at 2,443.05 points, a weekly result of +0.7%. Stocks in Europe closed marginally lower on Friday in mixed trade, weighed down by a stronger Euro as the common currency touched the highest level versus the greenback since January 2015. The Stoxx Europe 600 eased -0.12% as commodity related stocks turned bid to restrict further declines, while the German Dax slipped -0.11% as the IFO business climate index eased to 115.9 (exp: 115.5) from 116.0 previously. In the U.K. a stronger pound weighed upon equities on Friday, seeing the FTSE 100 -0.08% lower, however the bourse was able to hold a +1.1% weekly gain.

PRECIOUS: Bullion generally tracked higher on Friday against a softer greenback, however the yellow metal did have to endure a brief period of extreme volatility during early New York hours, as just under 2 million ounces of Dec futures traded hands underneath USD $1,280 spot in under a minute. Gold held range-bound leading into U.S. trade, as participants were happy to exchange the metal above USD $1,285 while awaiting any potential headlines out of Jackson Hole. Dovish comments from Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan buoyed the yellow metal during early New York flows, adding around USD $8 to a session high of USD $1,295.70. The bid tone was however short lived, as bullion collapsed USD $17 to a USD $1276.50 session low as 1.8 million ounces passed through Comex in under one minute. Yellen's comments soon after the volatility provided little in the way of clues as to the Fed's interest rate path or balance sheet reduction, and as such gold clawed back the early session declines to once again trade above USD $1,290 and end the session +0.35% higher. The latest CFTC data showed spec positioning once again lengthened during the week to August 22, with longs increasing and shorts bailing. Silver positing meanwhile increased on the back of shorts exiting, while longs were generally unchanged. Asia kicked off the week with a modest bid tone across the precious complex, seeing gold higher in early flows on the back of a softer USD, while further Chinese interest pushed the on-shore premium toward USD $8 relative to London gold. The metal spent the majority of trade unable to break through offers around USD $1,295, requiring interest out of Europe to finally break through the figure and take out Friday's New York high print. There are sill underlying geopolitical concerns as North Korea continued to test short range ballistic missiles over the weekend, while the potential for a U.S. Government shutdown should underpin bullion leading into this Friday's U.S. jobs data. The metal is well positioned for a further test of USD $1,300 following the recent failed attempt, however we are seeing stacked offers around the figure. With regards to support, interest around USD $1,290 has held well during Asian trade today and late New York on Friday, while below this there is broad interest around USD $1,285 - $1,280. Data releases today include U.S. wholesale inventories and the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.