DAILY REPORT : Monday 26 Feb 2018

MACRO: Equity markets in the U.S. finished the week on a positive note, benefitting from further declines to U.S. treasury yields to climb into positive territory over the week. The DJIA added +1.39% to 25,309.99 points, while the S&P 500 saw strength across Energy (+2.20%) and technology (2.17%) as all sectors finished in the black to support the bourse +1.60% higher to 2,747.30 points. The Nasdaq meanwhile snapped a four-session run of declines to bounce +1.77%. Over the week the DJIA added +0.4%, the S&P 500 gained +0.6% and the Nasdaq jumped +1.4%. The greenback saw mixed trade on Friday, ending modestly higher as the DXY pared early European gains in New York. The dollar regained the 107.00 handle against the yen amid whippy price action, while making notable gains against the euro to see the pair slip below 1.23 late in trade as the DXY booked a +0.1% gain. Oil futures turned bid in New York following tepid Asian/European trade on Friday, seeing WTI +1.5% higher to USD $63.60 per barrel, while Brent crude withstood early European offers to end +1.6% higher at USD $67.30 per barrel.

PRECIOUS: Asian trade on Monday saw Chinese interest return to the market follow their 'soft' opening late last week, with the Far East piling into bullion underneath USD $1,330 following the recent New Year holiday. With the yellow metal trading around USD $25 lower than it was when Shanghai closed for the Lunar New Year holiday, participants wasted no time bidding up the metal through mild resistance at USD $1,330, with interest extending as far as USD $1,338 into the Chinese lunch break. Physical demand piggybacked a softer greenback as USD/China took a leg lower to underpin bullion price action, with late Asian trade pushing through USD $1,340 to see the yellow metal trade +0.9% higher into European hours. Over the near-term bullion is likely to see a tug-of-war between a (historically) generally weaker Q2 (in addition to further downwards pressure from the Fed) vs. inflation pressures and potential further gains to U.S. treasury yields. We still expect the metal to remain range-bound with a test toward USD $1,305 - $1,310 not out of the question, while top-side targets sit toward USD $1,345 and $1,350. Silver ripped through the USD $16.50 pivot point to outperform and add +1.5% during Asian trade today, while platinum importantly reclaimed the USD $1,000 handle and palladium made light work of USD $1,050.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 20 Feb 2018

MACRO: Global markets traded in a subdued fashion on Monday with the U.S. on leave for the President’s Day Holiday. U.S. equity future eased modestly, while the greenback rose modestly against majors to see the DXY index end around +0.15% higher. European stock markets traded under pressure on Monday, handing back some of Friday’s gains amid light volumes. The Stoxx Europe 600 closed the session -0.63% lower at 378.24 points, while the German Dax pulled back -0.53% to 12,385.60 points. In the U.K. the FTSE 100 ended -0.64% lower at 7,247.66 points as consumer goods heavyweight Reckitt Benckiser Group PLC collapsed -7.51% after announcing flat like-for-like 2017 sales, while mining stocks traded lower following an announcement by the U.S. Government late on Friday that it’s considering tariffs to curb imports of steel and aluminium. Oil futures turned higher on Monday, as concerns over tensions in the Middle East continued to support prices and Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih stated that producers should keep production cuts in place for the whole year. WTI added around +1.3% to USD $62.35 per barrel to follow last week’s +4.2% return, while Brent crude ended +1.1% higher at USD $65.56 per barrel after a +3.3% jump last week.

PRECIOUS: A modest offered bias for gold on Monday, as an early Asian push above USD $1,350 was short lived and the metal spent the remainder of the session trickling lower. The price action generally followed dollar flows in thin U.S. holiday trade, with short-term spec interest weighing upon the metal as it pulled away from USD $1,350. Underlying interest toward the recent low of USD $1,345 kept the price action buoyant within a narrow range into the early close, seeing bullion shed around -0.2% to end at USD $1,346.60. Downwards pressure on bullion accelerated during Asian trade on Tuesday, with the dollar continuing its recent upward trajectory. The greenback made notable gains against the safehaven yen, extending to a 106.95 session high to add +0.33%. With China still on leave due to New Year celebrations, there was little interest in Asia to stop bullion moving through the recent support level of USD $1,345, however moves to the down-side continue to remain shallow and bids toward USD $1,340 kept further declines in check. Should we see further dollar appreciation, expect to see support broadly around USD $1,330 - $1,335 tested, while topside resistance cuts in initially around $1,345, with stronger resistance at USD $1,350. Silver extended recent declines in Asia today to test toward USD $16.50, while platinum eased toward USD $1,000 and palladium held a narrow range. Data releases today include German ZEW survey results and Eurozone consumer confidence.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Wed 14 Feb 2018

MARKETS/MACRO: U.S. stocks edged slightly higher on Tuesday, but were still showing signs of renewed intra-day turbulence as markets struggled to extend a powerful two session recovery to a third day. This ahead of key inflation data and doubts that last week’s brutal sell-off will be short-lived. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained +39.18 points, or +0.16%, to 24,640.45, the S&P500 rose +6.94 points, or +0.26%, to 2,662.94 and the NASDAQ Composite inclined +31.546 points, or +0.45%, to 7,013.51. The best performing sector on the day was Telecom Services (+0.58%) while the worst performing sector was Energy (-0.34%). European equities failed to make it a second consecutive day in the black despite advances in mining and travel shares. The Euro First 300 Index retreated -9.26 points, or -0.63% to 1,454.02 and the Euro Stoxx 600 gave up -2.35 points, or -0.63% to 370.58. Regionally the DAX shed -0.7%, FTSE100 -0.13% and CAC40 -0.6%. Crude oil prices were relatively unchanged (WTI -$0.13 to $59.16), as reports suggesting further falls in global inventories eased concerns around rising U.S output. The IEA reported that oil inventories in the OECD fell by the most in more than six years. They now suggest they are only 52 million barrels above the five year average, which is a drop of ~80% from this time last year. This comes on the back of data released earlier this week showing further falls in OPEC production. OPEC’s monthly report highlighted that compliance with the production cut agreement climbed to 136% in January, the highest level achieved since it was implemented at the start of 2017. The DXY softened by -0.6% to 89.663, reflected mostly in USDJPY and EURUSD pairs, while the cable failed to push higher last night despite a UK CPI print that came in a touch hotter than expected.

A quiet night in terms of data with the market zeroing in on today's U.S CPI print. The only data of note from the U.S was NFIB Small Business Optimism index, which rose by 2 points to 106.9 (105.3 expected), close to November’s 107.5 reading that was highest in monthly data to 1986. 32% of respondents said now was a good time to expand businesses, exceeding all monthly figures to 1986 and quarterly readings back to 1973 according to JP Morgan analysts. Six of the 10 components that make up the small-business optimism index increased in January, producing one of the strongest readings in the 45 year history of the survey. The figures show sustained, sturdy business sentiment since the November 2016 election. Across the Atlantic, annual inflation for the UK remained at 3% in January, compared with estimated reading of 2.9%. Inflation is well above the Bank of England’s target of 2% sparking speculation of a rate rise in May.PRECIOUS: Gold was steadier on Tuesday, with the metal advancing towards $1330 during the London session and again at the back-end of New York as the dollar dipped. The metal opened the day close to the lows and progressed slowly higher as China opened. The premium has understandably deteriorated as we drift closer and closer to the Chinese holiday break, falling to about $6 yesterday and trading continuously lower throughout the session. Spot gold caught a bid though trading up through $1325 as the USDJPY broke through 108, then continued on to just short of $1330 by the time London traders manned their desks. The metal then turned lower during the NY morning, trading back down towards the opening levels, yet recovered late in the session to close around $1330. Flow-wise there has been a definite downturn in volumes both through Comex and ETF's over the past week, with this expected to continue through Chinese new year. Resistance currently sits at around $1350, while support at $1320-25 looks strong for now.

Today marks the final day before China takes a week long holiday for their Lunar New Year celebrations, and as expected, volumes were again lower than the previous day. We opened around $1330 this morning and the yellow metal was swiftly paid higher, with some light stops tripped around $1330.50. The move was mainly based on the weaker dollar, particularly against the USDJPY which has fallen to a low so far of 107.00 (-0.7%). The yellow metal has continued to angle higher throughout the day currently trading through $1335 and holding above there in line with the soft Greenback. In other markets equities are mixed the Nikkei at time of writing is trading down -0.75%, Shanghai Composite is down -0.3%, ASX200 is -0.25%, while the Hang Seng is bucking the trend up +0.9%. WTI crude is currently little firmer on the day at $59.17 (+$0.21 or +0.36%) and the USD as mentioned is currently weaker across the board - USDJPY -0.95 points on the day at 106.90, EURUSD +39 points at 1.2390, USDCHF -40 pips at 0.9310. All eyes will be focussed on todays U.S CPI print to gain more understanding to the path of the Fed's monetary policy, with this data likely to instill some volatility. We also have U.S retail sales, Euro Zone GDP and Industrial Production and German CPI.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Friday 23 Feb 2018

MACRO: US equities finished higher despite erasing some of the early gains. The Dow added 164.7 points, or 0.66%, to 24,962.48; the S&P 500 gained 2.63 points, or 0.10% to 2,73.96, while the Nasdaq lost 8.14 points, or 0.11%, to 7,210.09. There were wins for REITs (+1.14%) and energy (+1.08%), while financials (-0.78%) led the laggards. European shares were lower, the EuroSTOXX shed 0.76 points, or 0.20%, to 380.34, the German DAX slipped 8.58 points, or 0.07%, to 12,461.91, and the London FTSE 100 fell 29.18 points, or 0.40%, to 7,252.39. In the currencies, the US dollar index eased 0.30% to 89.72 after a week long rally the EUR surged to 1.2343 while USD/JPY was sold through 107 to trade as low as 106.61. US treasury yields were lower, the 2 year yield fell 1.61 bps to 2.2500% and the 10 year yield lost 3.3 bps to 2.9170%, In commodities news, oil markets rallied as US crude stocks fell unexpectedly, Brent advanced 1.24% to $66.23 while WTI firmed 1.49% to $62.60. Base metals were mostly lower with aluminium (-0.73%) taking the biggest hit, however copper bucked the trend and rose 0.60%. In US economic data, the Conference Board's leading economic index surged 1% in January, it's fourth straight monthly gain and the largest in three months. The main drivers were building permits and the financial sub-components, with 8 out of 10 indicators showing positive readings for the month. Initial jobless claims fell by 7k to 222k in the week ending February 17th, the reading was well below economists 230k forecast. Continuing claims fell by 73k to 1.88M. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei is at +0.36%, the Shanghai composite is at +0.09%, the Hang Seng at +0.66%, and the ASX S&P 200 is at +0.83%. Tonight we have the Feds monetary report to Congress in the US; and inflation data from the Eurozone.

PRECIOUS: Better session for the precious as gold snaps a 4 day losing streak. Gold opened at $1324 in Asia and traded up to $1326 before the Chinese open. On the first day of trading following the Chinese New Year holidays, the SGE premium was around $4-5 and we saw relatively light buying out of China, the market drifting to the days low of $1320 late in the day. A mild bid tone through the London AM session led into a strong NY open as the greenback fell further out of favour. Gold made a push higher as USD/JPY traded below 107 and the EUR surged through 1.23. The yellow metal hit resistance at $1330 in the form of resting COMEX orders before making another more successful move through the level later in the day. Gold closed a touch off the session high at $1331. Silver tested the overnight lows around $16.40 but found support in NY to print a high of $16.67. Palladium was the pick of the PGMs, the metal added $20 to the opening level to a high of $1040. The Philadelphia gold and silver index lost 0.61% to 80.02. In todays trading, gold opened at $1331.20 and has drifted lower through the day as the US dollar is firming. The SGE premium is slightly higher today at around $6 but buying is still fairly light. The yellow metal reached a low of $1326.50 and is at $1327.50 as I write. Silver is drifting lower also, the grey metal sitting just off the low at 16.56 as I write. PGMs are flat. Gold should find support where the 50 DMA meets the overnight low at $1319-20, and the Feb low of $1308 below that. On the upside, broad resistance between $1331-35 will be followed by the $1350 psychological level.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

 

DAILY REPORT : Monday 19 Feb 2018

MACRO: U.S. housing starts rebounded during January, jumping +9.7% MoM (exp: +3.5%) to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.326 million units (exp: 1.234 million). The print was supported by strength across single-family housing, while building permits surged to the highest level since June 2007, gaining +7.4% MoM (exp: Flat) to an annual rate of 1.396 million (exp: 1.3 million). The U.S. import price index increased +1.0% MoM during January (exp: +0.6%) to follow a +0.2% gain the month prior. Prices saw broad gains led by oil, while excluding petrol, prices gained +0.5% (exp: +0.1%) from a flat read during December. On an annualised basis prices increased +3.6% (exp: 3.0%) from 3.2% previously. The University of Michigan’s gauge of consumer sentiment in the U.S. edged modestly higher during February, printing 99.9 (exp: 95.5), to mark the second highest reading in 14 years. Both current conditions and expectations recorded strong increases. Equity markets in the U.S. finished Friday generally higher, seeing both the DJIA and S&P 500 to their sixth consecutive session gain. The announcement by Special Counsel Robert Mueller accusing 13 Russian nationals and three Russian entities of interfering in the U.S. elections did however see late session volatility, dragging the major bourse’s away from session highs. The DJIA closed +0.08% higher at 25,519.38 points, while the S&P 500 tacked on +0.04% to 2,732.22 points and the Nasdaq handed back -0.23% at 7,239.465. On a weekly basis the DJIA gained +4.3% to mark the best weekly performance since November 2016, matched a by a +4.3% jump by the S&P 500 for the best weekly result since January 2013.

PRECIOUS: Concerns over inflation and a softer greenback kept bullion buoyant last week, with the yellow metal extending to a near 3-week high on Friday to book the best weekly result in over 12-months. We saw modest early Asian selling during Friday's session, albeit amid light volumes with the majority of the region on holiday. Further dollar weakness, notably against the yen underpinned the metal throughout the afternoon, attempting a number of breaks above USD $1,360 into European trade, before briefly pushing above the figure to print the session high of USD $1,361.80. U.S. interest saw the metal pull back from the European highs, with a reversal to the dollar (potential position squaring into President's Day) weighing upon bullion and testing through USD $1,350 in late session trade. The latest COTR shows a healthy correction to gold positioning, while notably both palladium and silver sit toward last year's lows. Asia kicked off the week in muted fashion as China continues to celebrate the New Year, generally tracking either side of the key USD $1,350 pivot point. A mild offered bias to the greenback saw a brief test through the figure, however the metal spent the afternoon toward the session low of USD $1,346.30 as the DXY index regained the 89.00 handle. Expect price action to remain limited today on account of the U.S. holiday, with moves toward USD $1,345 likely to see support to keep bullion range-bound.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 13 Feb 2018

MACRO: Equity markets in the U.S. continued their recent recovery on Monday, with bargain hunters bidding the major bourses up for the second straight session. The DJIA ended trade +1.70% higher at 24,601.27 points as 28 of the 30 components booked gains, while the S&P 500 saw materials (+2.55%) lead the bourse to a +1.39% return to close at 2,656.00 points. The VIX volatility index weakened further on Monday, sliding around -12% to 25.3. The greenback saw mixed trade on Monday, however ultimately finished the session lower, notably under pressure against the safe-haven yen. At the end of trade the DXY index was trading -0.3% down at 90.18. U.S. treasury yields strengthen further on Monday, seeing the two-year at +0.2bps to 2.075% and the ten-year 0.7bps higher to 2.858%. Crude prices in the U.S. edged modestly higher on Monday, however pared mid-session gains late in trade following and EIA report noting an expected increase in shale production in March. WTI closed just +0.15% higher at USD $59.30 per barrel, while Brent crude slipped into negative territory in the final hours of trade, declining -0.3% to USD $62.60 per barrel.

PRECIOUS: Bullion continued to see strength during Asian trade on Tuesday, with gains underpinned by a softer greenback. There was particular focus against the yen as pair collapsed to around 107.55, threatening a test of the September 2016 low (107.32). The stronger yen propelled bullion through the broad resistance level and overnight high around USD $1,325 - $1,326, triggering a brief but sharp stop loss run to the session high of USD $1,328.60 before offers overcame the bid momentum to cap the move higher. Afternoon profit taking resulted in the yellow metal easing modestly as European names filtered in, with interest toward USD $1,325 evident to restrict further retracement. Recent price action is indicative of short term positioning, with expectations of strength toward USD $1,335 - $1,340 as shorts are further tested. The caveat to a short-term push higher however is the upcoming Chinese New Year holiday which will remove physical demand from the market. Silver continues to test the recent short build up and has extended through USD $16.50, while recent equity strength should support further palladium demand, with USD $1,000 an initial target and key pivot point. Data releases today are unlikely to result in major market moves across the precious, with all eyes tomorrow on German GDP and CPI, Eurozone GDP and the all important U.S. CPI print.

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 22 Feb 2018

MARKETS/MACRO: U.S. equities rose to near session highs on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve’s policy-setting committee released minutes from its January meeting, with investors finding few reasons to believe that the central bank would quell the buying mood on Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained +31.64 points, or +0.13%, to 24,996.39, the S&P500 rallied +12.16 points, or +0.45%, to 2,728.42 and the NASDAQ Composite added +35.188 points, or +0.49%, to 7,269.496 points. Industrials (+0.59%) were the best performer, while REITs (-1.59%) fared the worst. European markets were mixed as investors received disappointing updates on manufacturing and services activity in the Euro Zone. The Euro First 300 Index rose +1.69 points, or +0.11% to 1,491.58 and the Euro Stoxx 600 inclined +0.59 of a point, or +0.16% to 381.10. Regionally the FTSE100 gained +0.48%, the CAC40 was up +0.23%, while the DAX shed -0.14%. Crude oil was weaker (WTI -$0.61 to $61.18) on concerns over higher inventories, along with record U.S output. U.S inventories are expected to have risen some 29 million barrels over the past week, which if confirmed would be the fourth consecutive gain. In FX, the USD gained further ground post FOMC minutes with the DXY index rising +0.3% to 90.00. EURUSD eased for the second consecutive day to 1.2284 and the USDJPY rose +0.4% to 107.78. In rates the U.S 10y yield increased +5.12bps to 2.941% and the U.S 2y yield rose +5.14bps to 2.270%.

The minutes from the January FOMC meeting indicated further improvement in the growth outlook and slightly more hawkish views on inflation. The minutes also supported a hawkish interpretation of the word “further” in the January statement, noting that stronger growth would increase the odds of an upward trajectory in the funds rate. However, the characterisation of wage growth was surprisingly dovish. The minutes again briefly mentioned the possibility of potential alternative monetary policy frameworks, such as an inflation target range or some form of price-level target. Officials concluded that "upside risks" to economic growth had increased thanks to tax cuts, increased consumer spending and confidence and a general plethora of signs that growth was moving along at a sustained pace. "Almost all participants" saw inflation moving up to the Fed's 2% inflation goal over the "medium term" as growth remained above trend and the labour market "stayed strong".

Euro-area February composite PMI slipped a touch to 57.5, but is still at healthy levels, with Manufacturing and services data from France falling short of expectations and German manufacturing activity hitting a six-month low. The drop was led by new orders and a reduction in the backlog of work. Whilst moderating from January's record, the index still points to solid and above trend growth. In the U.S the National Association of Realtors noted that existing home sales dropped -3.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.38 million units (5.60 million units expected) last month. December’s sales pace was also revised down to 5.56 million units from the previously reported 5.57 million units. Still in the U.S, Markit's flash manufacturing PMI rose to 55.9 (55.5 expected) from 55.5 and the services barometer climbed to 55.9 (53.7 expected) from 53.3. Chris Williamson, chief business economist at Markit mentioned that even faster growth is signalled for the coming months.

PRECIOUS: Gold traded lower overnight, with significant volatility displayed around the release of the FOMC minutes, the metal initially pushing to the days highs only to be thrashed lower as the USD climbed. Gold opened in Asia Wednesday in what was again quiet trade with China out enjoying the final day of the Lunar New Year holiday. Gold was heavy throughout much of the Asia session, with the USDJPY steadily recouping recent losses and trading up to 107.90. The yellow metal traded through the overnight low around midday triggering some light stops through ($1328.50) but the metal did find some support ahead of $1325 and held there. During London and most of New York the metal traded quite comfortably either side of $1330, with medium sized flows seen via Comex. As soon as the minutes were released however, gold gapped higher from $1330 to the days high of $1335.95, in line with a firmer EURUSD (1.2360) and softer USDJPY (107.30). The run higher however was momentary, stalling around $1335 and then plunging more than $10 through the previous daily low to $1322.50. Some Asian names were on the bid beneath $1325 and steadied the ship, the metal ultimately closing around $1324.50. Vols were soft most of yesterday, but firmed up a bit on the close with equities culling their gains. 1m atm vol 11.3%, 3m 11.8%, 6m 12.25%, 1yr 12.85%. Gold yields also continue to soften fairly relentlessly from investor desire for USD's. Gold is precariously holding a trend-line from December 2017 lows at present, so we expect some support around here, especially with China back. A break of this $1322-25 area however, could see gold test down to the 50 day MA of 1319.25 then the 100 day MA of 1298.50 if USD strength persists.

Given that spot gold is trading around $10 lower from where they last saw it, there was some anticipation today as to what Chinese traders would be looking to do on their first day back - the answer, not a great deal. Spot gold opened and there was some light spec demand and profit taking which angled gold a few dollars higher prior to the SGE open. As soon as Shanghai opened though spot gold quickly tumbled back through the opening levels to $1323.50. Some light demand emerged around this level with the SGE premium holding fairly close to where it was a week ago ($4.50-5.50). The metal remained fairly subdued as we moved into the afternoon, confined to a $2 range either side of $1324.50. In other markets, equities were mixed with the Nikkei currently -1.3% and Hang Seng -1.1%, while the Shanghai Composite is up +1.95% and ASX200 +0.1%. WTI crude is currently a little softer down -$0.30 on the day at $61.06. Ahead today on the data calendar look out for German IFO, UK GDP and U.S jobless claims.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Friday 16 Feb 2018

MACRO: The empire state manufacturing survey showed the pace of growth in business conditions softened during February, with the index declining to 13.1 (exp: 18.0) from 17.7 previously. New orders and shipments index were broadly unchanged. Initial jobless claims in the U.S. pushed higher during the week ended February 10, increasing 7,000 to 230,000 (exp: 228,000). The four-week moving average ticked higher by 3,500 to 228,500, while continue claims added 15,000 to 1.942 million (exp: 1.925 million). The labour department reported PPI final demand increased +0.4% MoM during January to follow a flat read in December. Core PPI (excluding food, energy and trade) also increased +0.4% MoM (exp: +0.2%). Industrial production in the U.S. declined -0.1% MoM during January to follow a downwardly revised +0.4% gain in December (prev: +0.9%). A -1% fall in mining output was the main drag on the headline print, while capacity utilisation eased to 77.5% (exp: 78.0%) from 77.7% previously. Equity markets in the U.S. continued to climb higher on Thursday, booking a fifth consecutive session gain as the DJIA reclaimed the 25,000 handle. Amid volatile trade the S&P 500 was able to recover from early session weakness and book a +1.21% gain to 2,731.20 points, while the DJIA added +1.23% to 25,200.37 points with Cisco Systems surging +4.73% on strong earnings results to underpin the bourse. The greenback continued to slide on Thursday to book a fourth successive session decline, notably losing ground against the yen as investors pile into the safehaven asset. The buck slipped nearly -1% against the yen to test the 106.00 handle, while the euro pushed above 1.25, the pound attempted a move above 1.41 and the franc added +0.7%.

PRECIOUS: Early session malaise was countered by an extension of the recent greenback weakness during afternoon trade in Asia today, supporting bullion toward USD $1,360 in illiquid conditions. With the majority of Asian centres on holiday today, gold spent early session trade edging sideways, while seeing resting interest around the New York close (USD $1,353) to keep pricing buoyant amid a lack of price direction catalysts. Afternoon trade was a different story however, as the dollar took a further leg lower to break below 106.00 against the yen, while the euro continued to climb and print a 3-year high against the dollar. The currency moves underpinned a move higher for bullion, breaking toward USD $1,360, however unable to capture the figure as a lack of follow through interest failed to break through layered offers. The yellow metal will set sights on a consolidated move through USD $1,360 over the near term, with targets extending toward the January USD $1,366 high and the 2016 high of USD $1,375.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

 

DAILY REPORT : Monday 12 Feb 2018

MACRO: With a lack of economic data for direction, equity markets in the U.S. ended a volatile week with a positive session as each of the major benchmarks ended higher. Following early session weakness the DJIA recovered in the final hours of trade to book a +1.38% gain at 24,190.90 points, however on a weekly basis the bourse put in its worst performance since January 2016 to hand back -5.2%. The S&P 500 posted a +1.49% gain to 2619.55 points as technology (+2.53%) led 10 of eleven sectors higher, however much the same as the DJIA, the bourse closed the week -5.2% lower. The Nasdaq Composite tacked on +1.44% on Friday, however over the week the bourse ended -5.1% down to book the worst week since February 2016. From a flow perspective, last week saw the largest weekly outflow on record to the tune of nearly USD $33 billion, while trading volumes over the week notched the highest level since August 2011 according to Wall Street Journal Digital Data. Treasury yields eased from recent highs as the stock market regained its footing to head higher. The two-year note slid around 7bps to around 2.06%, marking the largest single session decline since June 2016, while the 10-year pulled back around 2.2bps to around 2.83% after Monday’s four-year high of 2.88%.

PRECIOUS: Bullion ripped higher during Asian trade on Monday, turning sharply bid on the Chinese open as the greenback came under pressure. After muted early session interest, the metal tested resistance toward USD $1,320 on the Shanghai open, before further dollar declines saw stops around the figure trigger and propel the market to a USD $1,326.90 high. We saw only modest demand out of China during the session as they head into New Year celebrations later this week, rather the move hinged on dollar weakness driving stop loss runs through USD $1,320 and to a lesser extend a brief spike above USD $1,325. Bullion will be targeting a sustained move through USD $1,325 to test toward last weeks resistance around USD $1,330 - $1,335. Underlying support continues to be evident toward USD $1,310 - $1,315. Recent positioning data indicates a further short build up in silver, which may see the metal susceptible to squeeze higher should the greenback remain under pressure. The grey metal will be targeting an initial move above USD $16.50 for an extension toward USD $16.75 - $16.80 and above this USD $17.00. Palladium performed strongly today to head back toward USD $1,000 and regain a decent premium against platinum, with recent data suggesting a reduction in long positioning in what should be viewed as a healthy lightening.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

DAILY REPORT : Wed 21 Feb 2018

MACRO: Bond yields continued to climb higher on Tuesday and Walmart reported an earnings miss to spook investors and weigh upon equity markets in the U.S. The DJIA ended trade under 25,000 points as losses accelerated during the afternoon, ending the session -1.01% down at 24,964.75 points. Technology (+0.25%) was the only sector of the S&P 500 to end in positive territory, with the bourse sliding -0.58% to 2,716.26 points, while the Nasdaq composite eased just -0.07% to finish at 7,234.308 points. Treasury yields pushed higher on Tuesday, however tailed off modestly late in trade. A heavily oversubscribed two-year note auction saw 2.255% yield, while the 10-year traded to a 2.926% high before closing around 2.884%. The greenback continued to see supportive price action on Tuesday, finishing higher against all G10 currencies. The DXY index ended the session around +0.7% higher, breaking above 107.00 against the yen, while the euro lost touch with 1.24 and printed a 1.2320 session low to shed -0.55%. Oil futures finished mixed on Tuesday, with WTI trading higher on the back of reduced supplies to Cushing due to restricted pipeline capacity out of Canada. The U.S. benchmark added around +0.4% to USD 61.79 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped -0.6% to around USD $65.25 per barrel. In European trade on Tuesday, equities were generally higher on the back of a weaker euro. The Europe Stoxx 600 gained +0.60% to 380.51 points, the German Dax jumped +0.83% to 12,487.90 points, while in the U.K. the FTSE 100 ended just -0.01% lower as HSBC and BHP reported disappointing financial updates.

PRECIOUS: It was a similar story on Tuesday, with the dollar bullying gold lower and losses accelerating upon New York's return following the President's Day holiday. Bullion drifted lower during Asian hours, with a lack of physical interest to prop up the market as Shanghai continued their New Year holidays. Interest around USD $1,335 kept price action buoyant during European hours, however the figure soon gave way once New York opened and the greenback turned bid, triggering a stop loss run to USD $1,330. Late session trade took bullion underneath USD $1,330, however softer treasury yields and a lack of follow through selling restricted any further declines. Asian trade on Wednesday saw bullion take a further leg lower, albeit within a narrow range to test support at USD $1,325. Continued dollar strength and higher treasury yields should continue to see the yellow metal under pressure over then near-term, while the return of China will be closely to watched for any renewed physical interest in Asia to stem the weakness. Interest around USD $1,325 will be the key for price direction in the coming days/weeks, as a sustained move through this level should extend toward USD $1,303 - $1,310. Focus now turns to the Fed minutes released today, with further data releases including U.K. Jobs data, U.S. Markit manufacturing, services and composite PMI prints and existing home sales.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 15 Feb 2018

MACRO: The US Labor Department reported CPI surged 0.5% in January, the rise exceeded economists 0.4% prediction and was the largest increase in 5 months. Core CPI rose 0.3% in January following the 0.2% increase in December. Retail sales fell by 0.3% in January following the downwardly revised flat reading in December. Retail sales ex-autos were flat. Business inventories rose 0.4% in December, matching the 0.4% recorded in November. Sales rose by 0.6% and the ratio of inventories to sales was unchanged at 1.33. US equities overcame early inflation concerns to rise sharply through the session, the major bourses have enjoyed a four day winning streak since the big sell-off last week. The Dow added 253.04 points, or 1.03%, to 24,893.49; the S&P 500 gained 35.69 points, or 1.34% to 2,698.63, while the Nasdaq rose 130.11 points, or 1.86%, to 7,143.62. There were wins for financials (+2.32%) and tech (1.95%) while utilities (-1.19%) led the laggards. European shares were higher, the EuroSTOXX advanced 3.95 points, or 1.04%, to 374.53, the German DAX put on 142.66 points, or 1.17%, to 12,339.16, and the London FTSE 100 ticked up 45.96 points, or 0.64%, to 7,213.97. Further volatility in the currency markets overnight on the CPI data, the US dollar index spiked above 90 on the release before tumbling 1.1% to 89.087. Inversely, the EUR dipped briefly below 1.23 before surging up to 1.2462, while USD /JPY traded down to 106.75. US treasury yields powered higher, the 2 year yield rose 6.78 bps to 2.1718% and the 10 year yield climbed 8.74 bps to 2.9168%, In the commodities, oil markets were higher as the EIA reported US inventories rose less than expected, Brent rose 2.81% to $64.48 while WTI firmed 2.74% to $60.81. Base metals were broadly higher, with nickel (4.83%) leading the gains. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei is at +1.43%, the Shanghai composite is at +0.45%, the Hang Seng at +1.61%, and the ASX S&P 200 is at +0.90%. Tonight we have weekly jobless claims, the Empire State index, the Philly Fed index, producer prices, industrial production, capacity utilisation, and the NAHB home builders index out of the US; and December balance of trade from the Eurozone.

PRECIOUS: Wild session for the precious in NY following the CPI data release. Gold opened at $1329 in Asia and traded steadily higher despite the SGE premium easing to $2-3 which prompted decent selling out of China. The market reached $1336 fuelled by weakness in USD/JPY, which dipped below 107. We saw a drift lower into London open and the metal remained around $1330-31 through the AM session. As soon as the higher-than-expected US CPI numbers were reported the yellow metal gapped $11 lower to $1319, before rebounding quickly to the NY open level. Gold surged a further $20 to $1350 as the USD was broadly sold, there was some resistance at this level and we saw relative calm for the next couple of hours as the market hovered between $1345-50. Another wave of buying propelled the metal through the $1350 level the days high of $1355, before settling to close just ahead of $1350. Silver followed a similar trajectory, dipping to the low of $16.41 just after NY open before climbing almost 3%. Big moves for the PGMs also, platinum and palladium added 2.7% and 1.6% respectively. The Philadelphia gold and silver index added 5.46%. The SPDR Gold Trust holdings were unchanged at 823.66 metric tonnes. In todays trading, gold has tested the overnight high of $1355 a couple of times, volumes are pretty thin with SGE closed for Chinese New Year. The yellow metal is at $1354.20 as I write. Silver is edging higher, the grey metal sits at $16.91 as I write. PGMs are higher, with platinum trading above $1000 for the first time in a couple of weeks. Gold is likely to find downside support around $1341. On the topside, a break above yesterdays NY high should see the metal testing the Jan high at $1265.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

DAILY REPORT : Friday 09 Feb 2018

MACRO: US equities were hammered once again amid concerns over rising bond yields and inflation. The Dow dropped 1032.89 points, or 4.15%, to 23,860.46; the S&P 500 sold off 100.6 points, or 3.75% to 2,581.00, while the Nasdaq fell 274.824 points, or 3.90%, to 6,777.159. Tech (-4.22%), consumer discretionary (-4.02%) and industrials (-3.95%) led a broad decline in the markets. European shares were lower, the EuroSTOXX lost 6.1 points, or 1.60%, to 374.03, the German DAX dropped 330.14 points, or 2.62%, to 12,260.29, and the London FTSE 100 shed 108.73 points, or 1.49%, to 7,170.69. In the currencies, the US dollar index was flat at 90.25, the EUR traded up to 1.2291, while USD/JPY traded down to 108.66. The 2 year yield rose 0.63 bps to 2.1298% and the 10 year yield climbed 1.17 bps to 2.8476%, Oil extended its losing streak on the back of record weekly US crude output and a rise in inventories, Brent eased 1.54% to $64.50 while WTI gave up 1.60% to $60.80. Base metals were mixed, with zinc (+1.23%) the best performer. In US economic data, initial jobless claims fell by 9k to 221k in the week ending February 3. Continuing jobless claims decreased by 33k to 1.92M. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei is at -3.22, the Shanghai composite is at -4.59%, the Hang Seng at -3.80%, and the ASX S&P 200 is at -0.90%. Not much on the data front tonight, just wholesale trade numbers out of the US.

PRECIOUS: Choppy session for the precious amid carnage in the stock market. Gold opened at $1318 in Asia and was sold steadily lower through the day as USD/CNY made a move higher. The SGE premium at $9-10 ensured there was onshore demand in China, which supported the market around $1310 during Asian hours. The metal dipped to the days low of $1307 during the London AM session but it's fortunes were reversed once NY came in. While the rout in equities intensified and USD/JPY dropped below 109 the yellow metal found a bid and traded to a session high $1321. Resting orders on COMEX around the $1320 level appeared to cap the market and gold eased to $1318 at the close. Silver printed a fresh 2018 low of $16.25 before finding buying support out of NY, the grey metal finished ahead at $16.38. Palladium's tough stretch continued as the metal dipped below $960 for the first time since October of last year. The Philadelphia gold and silver index lost 0.85%. The SPDR Gold Trust holdings fell 0.07% to 8266.31 metric tonnes. In todays trading, gold had another go at $1320 early in the Asian session but was unable to punch through. The market has eased little with the SGE premium slightly lower at $8-9 over loco London. The yellow metal is at $1317.30 as I write. Silver is has been range-bound, the grey metal sits at $16.38 as I write. PGMs are flat, with palladium keeping it's head above $960 following the sell off last night. Gold will find initial resistance at the $1320 that has held a couple of times over the last 24 hours. On the lower side we should see some support around $1308-10, a move through there will see the yellow metal testing the psychological $1300 level.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.