DAILY REPORT : Wed 2 May 2018

MARKETS/MACRO: With many markets closed in observance of May Day, activity globally was on the lighter side. U.S. stocks closed mostly higher on Tuesday, as a sharp rally in technology stocks (thanks to strong sales for Apple), helped the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq shake off an early decline. However, the Dow fell for a third straight session as caution remained high ahead of the conclusion of a Federal Reserve policy meeting and fresh developments in global trade. The Dow Jones Industrial Average crept down -64.1 points, or -0.27%, to 24,099.05, the S&P500 rallied +6.75 points, or +0.25%, to 2,654.80 and the NASDAQ Composite gained +64.438 points, or +0.98%, to 7,130.704. The best performing sector was Information Technology (+1.46%) and the worst performing sector intra-day was Consumer Staples ( -0.88%). It was a quiet days trading in Europe last night with some markets closed for the Labor Day holiday. The FTSE was open and it managed to eke out a small gain as earnings numbers continue to dominate news headlines. The EuroFirst 300 inched lower -1.18 points, or -0.08% to 1,510.85 and the Euro Stoxx 600 cooled equally, off -0.29 of a point, or -0.08% to 385.03. In FX, the USD continued its upward trajectory yesterday with the DXY closing above the 200 dma up +0.68% to 92.462. In EURUSD, we’ve broken through its 200-dma this morning , which opens up for 1.1829 and 1.1618 below with further bearish momentum, while breaks back above 1.2076 would signal a reversal to the bearish trend. In USDJPY we’ve got the 200 dma ahead at 110.2, which will be a key level to watch. AUDUSD has broken below 0.7500 this morning and is looking very soft, sitting at its lowest point since mid last year. In commodities, Crude oil prices fell (WTI -1.56% to $67.50) as the stronger USD triggered selling/profit taking by investors after a recent rally in prices. Focus will now be towards this week’s EIA report, with expectations switching to a rise in stockpiles last week, however, signs of more falls in OPEC production are likely to keep that concern at bay. A Bloomberg survey suggests output fell to 31.93mb/d in April, down from 31.97mb/d in March. In base metals, easing trade tensions and a more conciliatory tone from the U.S on Russian sanctions saw investors’ concerns over supply disruptions ease. Combined with the stronger USD, investor appetite for base metals suffered as a result. Aluminium prices managed to stay relatively unchanged, despite U.S Treasury Secretary Mnuchin talking about the possibility of lifting sanctions on Rusal. The rest of the complex was weaker, copper down over -0.9%, and zinc prices plunging 2.4%. Yields rose with the U.S 2y up +1.63 bps to 2.504% and 10y +1.13 bps to 2.964%.

On the data roll, the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) said its index of national manufacturing activity in the U.S dropped to a reading of 57.3 last month (58.5 expected) from 59.3 in March. The measure of employment dropped from 57.3 in March to 54.2 and the ISM said there were indications that labour and skill shortages were affecting production output. The new orders index was slightly down to 61.2 this month, while the prices index increased 1.2 points to 79.3 (78.5 expected), the highest reading since April 2011. U.S construction spending unexpectedly fell in March as a sharp decline in home-building led to the biggest drop in investment in private construction projects in more than seven years. The Commerce Department said on Tuesday construction spending tumbled -1.7%. February data was revised to show construction spending increasing +1.0% instead of the previously reported +0.1% gain. Across the pond, the manufacturing sector activity in the UK economy eased more-than-expected in the month of April, missing market expectations, the latest data from Markit revealed on Tuesday. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in the UK arrived at 53.9 points in March, as compared to a previous 54.9 (revised down from 55.1) reading. Markets had predicted the PMI to tick lower to 54.8.

The Trump administration said on Monday that it would delay a decision to impose steel and aluminium tariffs on the European Union, Canada and Mexico for another 30 days, giving key allies a reprieve as the White House tries to extract concessions from trading partners who have resisted those demands. The administration, which granted temporary exemptions to a handful of countries in March, said it had reached initial agreements with Argentina, Australia and Brazil that would allow them to avoid the tariffs, at least for now. Navarro Says the U.S. won't further extend Canada, Mexico tariff relief. The European Union’s exemption from U.S. steel and aluminium tariffs was extended because of promising trade talks with Washington, U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said on Tuesday, adding that he does not expect the practice to continue.

PRECIOUS: Gold extended its losses overnight in-line with the broad acceleration of the Greenback, testing the 200 dma ($1305.00) and closing the session right on it. Gold opened yesterday's session around $1315 - similar to the previous day - edging up towards $1316 in the opening few minutes, then proceeded to slowly grind it's way lower throughout the day. With a number of major markets in Asia and Europe closed (China, HK, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia), flows were extremely light with the metal continuing to decline steadily to the 200 dma. There were a number of specs 'stop hunting' right around the $1305 support and we briefly dipped through to a low of $1302.30. There was considerable demand there however and the stop hunting did not pay off. Right around this time too the U.S equity markets were trading lower and the gold caught a bid as a result back toward $1307. With the USD still rallying late into the session the recovery for gold was limited the metal closing right on $1305. The $1300-1305 area is critical for the gold with the 200 dma, 50% Fibonacci retracement (Dec 17-present) at $1301.30 and the psychological $1300 all in this band. If we break and close below $1300, it opens the risk of a move back toward $1263-65. That being said, there is also a case to be made that this could be the ideal place to watch for a reversal in the metal. We have bounced off this area ($1300-1307) 3 times since January, and having now completed a multi month corrective phase, we could punch higher. Bottom line, how price action develops in this $1300-1310 area will likely be important both to the precious metals complex and to the broader USD in general. Important components to watch will be ETF flows, the trend of the dollar and whether Geo-political concerns, sanctions concerns and trade war rhetoric continues to ease.

With the return of China today after a 2 day hiatus, the market was expecting some bargain hunting from them. This saw some early speculative demand across the precious complex, particularly for gold and silver, which saw them rally some $3 and $0.07 respectively prior to Shanghai stepping in. Once the SGE opened for business there was some moderate demand from them and the precious complex whole picked up. This was also assisted in part by the USD giving back a little of the overnight gains made against the G10. Gold gathered momentum and steadily made its way north to $1310, where it began to run into some offers. It did not back off however pushing up to a $1311.80 high and then consolidate between $1310-11 during the China lunch break. The SGE premium over the first session was solid at around $8.00-9.00, which was about a dollar or so higher than last Friday. Investors will now be waiting for today's FOMC to gain a better understanding of the metals (and of course USD's) direction in the short-medium term. In other markets equities are generally trading lower on the day, at time of writing the Nikkei is down -0.3%, Shanghai Composite -0.4% and Hang Seng -0.6%, while the ASX200 is the outlier up +0.45% so far. Crude oil is currently firmer WTI +0.4% at $67.51 and Brent +0.1% intra-day at $73.20. The USD after trading a little higher early morning has retreated a little vs. the G10, most notably vs the AUD which was trading below 0.7500 but now sits just above there at 0.7505.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

 

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 26 Apr 2018

MARKETS/MACRO: The Dow and S&P500 ended a volatile session slightly higher Wednesday, with the two market gauges erasing early losses to turn positive in afternoon trade as strong corporate earnings - Boeing/Facebook/Anthem - appeared to overshadow an ongoing rise in bond yields. The DJIA gained +59.7 points (0.25%), to 24,083.83, the S&P500 advanced +4.84 points (+0.18%), to 2,639.40 and The NASDAQ Composite cooled -3.615 points (-0.05%), to 6,513.94. The best performing sector was Telecom Services (+0.81%), while REITs struggled ( -0.27%). European equity markets ticked back from Tuesday's gains as investor's reacted to a +3.00% U.S 10y bond yield. The Eurofirst 300 Index slid -11.29 points (-0.75%), to 1,491.73 and the Euro Stoxx retreated -2.94 points, or -0.77% to 380.17. Regionally the DAX shrugged off -1.02%, FTSE100 -0.62% and CAC40 -0.57%. The U.S 10y Treasury yield stayed above the 3.0% psychological level yesterday, rising to the day’s high of 3.0334% before easing off into the close at 3.0259%. The higher interest rates helped to lift the USD higher, with the Dollar index rising +0.54% to 91.256 on the day. USDJPY jumped higher by +0.6% to 109.43 while the EURUSD eased -0.6% to 1.2161. In commodities, Aluminium prices rose +0.8% over the session and it seems the volatility that has typified the market in recent weeks has abated. This has been assisted by Monday’s decision from the U.S to ease sanctions on Rusal and news that Glencore has restarted aluminium purchases from the Russian company. Nickel prices rose +1.1% as the Philippines government continued to move forwards with a plan that will limit the amount of land that miners can use at any given time. Oil gyrated on the day eventually settling higher - WTI up +$0.31 (+0.465) to $68.01/barrel. Early on, crude fell -0.9% on news that US oil inventories increased a larger-than-expected 2.17 million barrels last week as refinery utilisation ticked lower. However, prices rose in the afternoon as attention turned towards the prospects of a new nuclear agreement with Iran, which President Macron is trying to broker.

On the data front it was a very quiet session, U.S mortgage applications the only release of note, the figure dipping slightly (-0.2%) after increasing last week.

PRECIOUS: Bullion remained on the back foot overnight, with decent selling seen throughout the session on COMEX as yields, the USD and equities all caught a bid. We opened just above $1330 in Asia yesterday and gold had a very brief spike to the highs within the opening hour of trade. From there though it was all one way traffic lower, with COMEX offering clearly outweighing the very modest Chinese demand, with the premium still sitting unchanged around $7-8 on the SGE. By the time London traders stepped in we were sitting around $1325, with some SE Asian and Indian demand propping things up around that level. We broke lower however testing the previous days lows and held there, awaiting NY. Once U.S traders joined the party, the 10y yield began to break further above 3.0%, which prompted a sweep lower through the 100dma in gold. Once again though there were sizeable bids looking to the fade the dip and we ultimately held above $1320 and closed at $1322.50. With a number of factors posing headwinds for the gold price at the moment - rising USD, higher yields, cooling U.S relations with N Korea, stabilising base metals, cleaner positioning, China closed 2 days next week - traders will be looking for a clear break of $1320, to target the next support at $1304.00 ($200 dma). We tend to agree with consensus that gold will likely pullback further, although we do excercise caution, especially considering the previous 2 times the 100 dma has been tested (March), there was a sharp 3% reversal in the following days. The next risk event is the ECB rate decision tonight, which should be instrumental in the next direction for precious.

The market today was very quiet, gold confined to a $3 range with very little seen in the way of flows. COMEX traffic was still skewed to the sell side, while very light buying from China was enough to balance things out. Silver and the PGM's were also very quiet the former inching slightly higher throughout the day, while the latter both traded sideways. The dollar was a little softer over the day, down between 10-20 pips vs. the G10 which kept gold bid. In other markets, Asian equities were soft despite the rise of their North American counterparts. At time of writing the Hang Seng is down -0.7%, Shanghai Composite -0.9% and ASX200 -0.20%, while the Nikkei has bucked the trend and is in the black up +0.55%. The U.S 10y yield is consolidating close to the overnight highs. As mentioned earlier market focus will be on the ECB today, particularly Governor Draghi's speech where it is expected that he will outline the next stage of the central banks extremely loose monetary policy. There is also U.S jobless claims, durable and capital goods orders and wholesale inventories data to look out for.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Friday 20 Apr 2018

MARKETS/MACRO: U.S. stocks ended lower on Thursday as the risk on sentiment cooled, Consumer Staples, Real Estate and Tech all sliding. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -83.18 points, or -0.34%, to 24,664.89, the S&P500 retreated -15.51 points, or -0.57%, to 2,693.13 and the NASDAQ Composite slumped -57.18 points, or -0.78%, to 7,238.06. The best performing sector was Financials (+1.52%), while losses in Consumer Staples (-3.14%) dragging the market lower. European bourses on the other hand closed with very modest gains, buoyed by a stack of corporate earnings releases. The Euro First 300 crept up +0.28 of a point, or +0.02% to 1,496.57 and the Euro Stoxx 600 trickled up +0.09 of a point (+0.02%) to 381.95. The dollar, meanwhile, continued to trade with a bid bias with the dollar index trading just shy of the 90 handle again, helped in part by a big pull back in the Pound. This after comments from BoE Governor Carney who said that an interest rate rise this year is ‘likely’, which was interpreted by markets as an explicit attempt to bring down the May meeting’s market pricing after softer wage and inflation data earlier this week. The Euro remained relatively unchanged, buoyed in part by the weakness in Sterling, while the commodity currencies fell in line with softer oil prices. The rally in base metals which has been relentless this week took pause overnight with most constituents lower on the day. Aluminium lost -2.0%, its first pull-back in four days, while Nickel and zinc were both down -1.3% respectively, though not before Nickel had surged to a three year high. Media reported that the Russian Government is considering aid to the world's largest aluminium producer Rusal, following LME and Comex delivery sanctions. Bond markets suffered a heavy session as sovereign supply concerns and rising commodity prices pushed yields higher and curves steeper. Swap spreads narrowed slightly, but credit widened as supply lifted and the market remains vulnerable. The U.S 10yr yield increased +3.7bps to 2.909% and the 2yr yield fell -0.18bps to 2.427%.

On the data front U.S initial jobless claims dipped -1k to 232k in the week ended April 21, slightly higher than what economists surveyed by Bloomberg at 230k, while continuing claims fell by -15k to 1.863 million (1.845 million expected). Claims rose sharply in New York and California, but those increases were offset by declines almost everywhere else. Still in the U.S the Philadelphia Fed said its diffusion index for current general activity inched up to 23.2 in April (21 expected) from 22.3 in March, with a positive reading indicating growth in regional manufacturing activity. The modest uptick by the headline index was partly due to stronger job growth, as the number of employees index rose to 27.1 in April from 25.6 in March. Across the Atlantic, U.K. retail sales missed forecasts, the headline figure falling -1.2% MoM in March (-0.6% expected) after freezing cold weather last month kept shoppers home. Ex Autos and Fuel the retail sales figure dropped -0.5% MoM (-0.4% expected, +0.4% prior). The Eurozone’s current-account surplus eased to 35.1 billion Euro's in February, down from 39.0 billion Euro's in January, with the annual surplus of 3.7% of GDP, now sitting +0.3% higher than a year ago.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney on Thursday dampened wide-spread expectations for an interest rate hike in May, pointing out there were also "other meetings" this year. Sterling dropped almost a cent against the U.S. dollar to its lowest level since early April on the back of the comments, in which Carney highlighted "mixed" economic data. "I don't want to get too focused on the precise timing, it is more about the general path", he told BBC news, while adding that a rate hike this year was "likely". He said Britain should prepare for "a few interest rate rises over the next few years". A firm majority of economists in a Reuters poll published earlier this week said they expect the BoE will raise interest rates to a new post-financial crisis high of 0.75% in May.

PRECIOUS: It was another volatile day for the precious complex gold pushing higher during Asia and early London, only to erase the gains and some by close as the USD changed course. USD was broadly sold off from the Asia open which helped gold trade through $1350 and gain support beneath that level despite some early Chinese liquidation. USDCNY+CNH was sold off fairly aggressively thereafter however and AUD was strong which led to some demand during the Asia afternoon. Base metals also began to surge again which lifted the complex further, the yellow metal trading through $1352 then receding slightly. Gold was not necessarily the centre of attention but it continued to push to the daily high of $1354.35 (just shy of the previous days high) as European traders walked in. The dollar then began to recover and UST 10y yields began to accelerate higher which dampened golds sheen and it pulled back towards $1352 again. Around this time a headline came out that the sanctioned Russian company Rusal (world's largest producer of aluminium), which is at the centre of the issues surrounding the base metals market, may be nationalised in order to prevent it from failing. Aluminium plummeted $2400 on the news, copper fell back underneath $7000 and the precious metals all fell in sympathy. Stops in gold were triggered on the move through $1350 sharply dropping to $1345. From there the yellow metal continued to slide, although found some support in the low $1340's before recovering into the close at around $1346. Palladium was exceptionally volatile once again, surging during the Asia PM/Early London in line with the base metals to the highest level since late Feb ($1056.00). When the base turned though so did the Pd, right back off to $1024.50 and closed the day ultimately softer at $1030 (-0.5%).

It has been a choppy week across most markets, yet today was a little quieter in Asia with traders enjoying the breather, gold trading slightly lower on the day. The yellow metal opened right where we left off and traded sideways between $1345-46 leading into the SGE open. There was some small net buying from Chinese investors on the open, although this soon gave way and spot gold fell a few dollars 30 minutes later towards $1342. There were some bids on Comex around that cash level and the market held there into the afternoon. Silver tracked gold throughout the day, coming off following the SGE open, yet holding above $17.15 and the PGM's flat-lined. In other markets, equities are lower the Nikkei currently -0.15%, Shanghai Composite -1.2%, Hang Seng -0.4% and ASX200 -0.2% and the USD is firmer against the G10 (USDJPY +0.3% to 170.65). Crude is currently flat and the base metals are all softer (Aluminium -2.5% and Nickel -3.5%).

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 01 May 2018

MACRO: US equities shrugged off more positive earnings data to finish lower overnight. The Dow lost 148.04 points, or 0.61%, to 24,163.15, the S&P 500 fell 21.86 points, or 0.82% to 2,648.05, while the Nasdaq shed 53.533 points, or 0.75%, to 7,066.266. Telecoms (-2.66%), health (-1.56%) and industrials (-1.35%) led a broad decline in the markets. European equities were higher, the EuroSTOXX rose 0.68 points, or 0.18%, to 385.32, the German DAX put on 31.24 points, or 0.25%, to 12,612.11, and the London FTSE 100 gained 7.09 points, or 0.09%, to 7,509.30. In the currencies, the US dollar index firmed 0.32% to 91.838, the EUR 1.2067 while USD/JPY was as high as 109.41. US treasury yields were mixed, the 2 year yield rose 0.41 bps to 2.4879% and the 10 year yield fell 0.37 bps to 2.9531%. In commodities news, oil prices were higher on concerns that the US will restore sanctions on Iran after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that Iran ran a secret program to produce nuclear weapons. Brent tacked on 0.71% to $75.17 while WTI gained 0.69% to $68.57. Base metals were mostly higher, with aluminium (1.44%) leading the gains. In US economic data, the PCE price index rose 2% year-on-year in March, following a 1.7% increase in February. The Core PCE price index advanced 1.9% in the 12 months to March. Personal income increased 0.3% in March from 0.4% in February, and real consumer spending rose 0.4%. The Chicago PMI rose to 57.6 in April from 57.4 in March. The National Association of Realtors pending home sales index rose 0.4% to 107.6 in March. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei is at +0.05%, the Shanghai composite is closed, the Hang Seng is closed, and the ASX S&P 200 is at +0.56%. Tonight we have Markit manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing index, construction spending, and motor vehicle sales out of the US; and GDP growth, Markit manufacturing PMI, and unemployment rate out of the Eurozone.

PRECIOUS: Softer session for the precious in light trading. Gold opened at $1322 in Asia and traded up to $1324.80 just after the open, however this would be the high for the day. With Japan and China both out for holidays the liquidity was thin, and as soon as USD/JPY started firming gold lost ground quickly. The metal dropped to $1317 by the time London came in, the sell off continued until the market reached it's nadir of $1310 just after the NY open. From here there was in impressive bounce back to $1320 as investors dumped equities, but the yellow metal was unable to sustain the rally and drifted to a close at $1315. Volatile session for silver, the grey metal tumbled almost 2% to a low of $16.18 before gapping up 27c in early NY hours then easing to finish at $1315. In the PGMS, platinum dipped below the $900 level for the first time since December. The Philadelphia gold and silver index lost 2.15%. Quiet again in Asia today with China still out, gold opened at $1315.40 and has drifted lower as the day progressed, the yellow metal is at $1311.90 as I write. Silver drifting also, the grey metal sits at $16.27 as I write. Platinum and palladium are at $900 and $961 respectively. Gold should find some resistance at the $1321 100 DMA. Support-wise, we are nearing some key technical levels with the 200 DMA at $1304 and the psychological $1300 level below that, expect broad support between $1300 and the overnight low of $1310.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Wed 25 Apr 2018

MARKETS/MACRO: Global markets traded with a stronger risk off tone yesterday with equities in the New York session closing sharply lower, particularly so for industrial and technology names. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged -424.56 points (-1.74%) to 24,024.13, the S&P500 shed -35.73 points (-1.34%) to 2,634.56 and the NASDAQ Composite retreated -121.249 points (-1.70%) to 7,007.353. European bourses weathered the storm a little better with mixed results across major indices. The EuroFirst 300 was pretty much flat up +0.48 of a point (+0.03%) to 1,503.02 and the Euro Stoxx 600 eased slightly down -0.07 of a point (-0.02%) to 383.11. Regionally the FTSE100 rose +0.36%, the DAX fell -0.17% and CAC40 inched up +0.10%. In commodities, Crude fell overnight (WTI down -$1.20, -1.7% to $67.72) amid speculation that the U.S would not withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action (JCPOA) following the Trump/Macron conference. Aluminium softened further as the U.S stance on Russian producer Rusal's sanctions appeared to soften further, though the metal remains roughly +12.6% above the lows. Copper outperformed the base complex amid concerns regarding a mining strike in Chile as well as headlines that suggest China is loosening its monetary policy stance - in line with the recent RRR cut. The main focus overnight was on the rates space after the U.S 10y touched 3.00%, to settle and close just below there (2.999%). The broader DXY correlated well to the higher yields last night, rising in line with the 10yr before paring back gains as yields retraced slightly and equities slid. USDJPY held onto the previous day’s gains and closed a touch higher around 108.80, EUR-USD closed a touch higher to 1.2230 and AUD-USD was range bound and closed unchanged at 0.7600, although has now slipped below this level.

On the data front, March new home sales rose +4.0% MoM (+1.9% expected) to 694k and February was revised up strongly to +3.6% from -0.6%. The U.S Conference Board's April consumer confidence rose to 128.7 (126.0 expected) from 127.0 previously - which was revised lower by -0.7. In Europe, Germany's latest IFO business climate reading fell noticeably again in April from 103.3 to 102.1 (102.8 expected) - the trend continuing to point downwards. The German economy’s upturn will lose some of its momentum in the coming quarters which will leave the ECB unimpressed.

PRECIOUS: Gold held in rather well overnight considering the sell-off in bonds and base metals, once again showing resilience ahead of the 100 dma ($1320.30) thanks to notable onshore Chinese demand. The yellow metal opened at $1325 yesterday and from the get-go there were profit taking specs looking for offers, expecting China to be on the bid when they opened up for trade. The gold inched higher in the lead up to the China open toward $1327, although when they came in demand was not what was expected and the metal sharply sold off to the days low around $1322.50. As mentioned earlier there were decent bids on both Ecomex and SGE ahead of the 100 dma and the metal just as quickly popped back to $1328 where it traded quietly throughout the rest of the Asia session. It remained in a narrow band through out Europe ($1324-28) and began to catch a bid during NY, due to the sliding equity market. It was a gradual incline throughout the rest of the session pushing as high as $1332.50 and managing to close just above $1330. ETF flows were again skewed to the buyside, with speculators adding a further 95k oz worth of length overnight. That takes the monthly accrued buying to ~1.6 mio ozs across gold ETF's according to Bloomberg and we feel that if this continues, gold should remain supported above $1300-1310. We see strong resistance at $1360-70 area, where we have stalled numerous times. It feels like the market wants to try the lowside major support now which sits at that $1300-1310 level. Elsewhere, palladium was still volatile overnight yet continued to slip on the back of the weaker base metals touching a low of $967.75 - a long way from the $1056 peak hit only a week ago.

Gold opened on the back foot today, with a stronger USD providing some headwind for the metal. The initial move was higher towards $1332 over the first hour or so of trade, although this turned once the AUDUSD broke down through 0.7600, gold slipping to $1330 right around the SGE open. The metal remained weak throughout most of the morning session with the SGE premium stable around $7.50-8.50 for the most part. Persistent Comex selling was the continued to pressure the gold throughout the AM China session although $1328 did manage to hold throughout. Once lunch came around though the yellow metal continued its slow descent hitting $1326.00 just before the SGE re-open. There was a brief pop higher at the China open, but Comex was offering into this and we traded back down towards $1325 where we currently sit looking a little soggy. In other markets AUDUSD continues its weakness down 35 pips on the day to 0.7567 at present, and the rest of the G10 is also soft. Major Asian equity indices are lower at time of writing and crude is flat.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 19 Apr 2018

MACRO: US equities were mixed as a spike in oil prices bolstered energy stocks and huge losses for IBM weighed on the Dow. The Dow lost 38.56 points, or 0.16%, to 24,748.07, the S&P 500 rose 2.25 points, or 0.08% to 2,677.84, while the Nasdaq gained 14.137 points, or 0.19%, to 7,295.236. IBM lost 7.53% as their lacklustre quarterly earnings sparked a massive sell-off. There were wins for energy (+1.55%) and industrials (+1.02%), while consumer staples (-0.86%) and telecoms (-0.44%) led the laggards. European equities were higher, the EuroSTOXX added 1.09 points, or 0.29%, to 381.86, the German DAX crept up 5.26 points, or 0.04%, to 12,590.83, and the London FTSE 100 put on 91.29 points, or 1.26%, to 7,317.34. In the currencies, the US dollar index advanced 0.11% to 89.612, the EUR was as low as 1.2349, while USD/JPY traded up to 107.37. US treasury yields were higher, the 2 year yield firmed 3.53 bps to 2.4293% and the 10 year yield rose 4.43 bps to 2.8728%. Oil prices surged to levels last seen in late 2014 as the EIA reported US crude stockpiles fell by 1.1 million barrels last week. Brent climbed 3.17% to $73.85 while WTI put on 3.35% to $68.75. Base metals moved sharply higher as the fallout from US sanctions against Russia's Rusal spread through the base metal complex. Aluminium climbed 5.49% as the LME and CME suspended delivery of Rual brands. Nickel was the biggest mover overnight, jumping 7.46% on news Russia's Norilsk Nickel may also be subject to US sanctions. In US economic data, mortgage applications rose 4.9% in the week ending April 13. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei is at +0.41%, the Shanghai composite is at +0.97%, the Hang Seng at +1.20%, and the ASX S&P 200 is at +0.43%. Tonight we have weekly jobless claims, the Philly Fed index, and leading economic indicators out of the US.

PRECIOUS: Gold opened at $1347 in Asia and drifted lower as USD firmed against the yen and the SGE premium eased to $5-6, the market bottoming out at $1342. London were buyers down here as the precious complex was led higher by a broad rally in base metals. Gold reached $1350 by the time NY came in and investors there were happy to buy into the strength, the yellow metal squeezed to a session high $1355. In choppy afternoon trading the metal was not able to close above the $1350 level, finishing just under at $1348. Silver surged almost 3% to the high of $17.23, the grey metal trading above $17 for the first time since early February. Palladium's astonishing run of gains continued, the metal climbed $33 to a high of $1044. Palladium has risen a staggering 16% over the last 8 trading days. The Philadelphia gold and silver index added 1.19%. The SPDR gold trust holdings were unchanged at 865.89 metric tonnes. In Asia today, gold hovered around the $1350 level early on and started to firm as the Chinese came with the SGE premium back up at $7. As I write the yellow metal is sitting at the high of $1353.60. Silver traded back up to yesterdays highs at $1726, the grey metal is at $17.24 as I write. PGMs found a bid, platinum is up $12 to $947 and palladium traded as high as $1047. Gold should find initial support around yesterdays low of $1342 and at the 55 DMA $1331 below that. On the upside, the metal is trading close to the recent resistance level at $1355, a break through here and we could see another attempt at the 2018 high.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Monday 30 Apr 2018

MACRO: US equities were flat on Friday despite some strong corporate earnings results. The Dow edged lower 11.15 points, or 0.05%, to 24,311.19, the S&P 500 added 2.97 points, or 0.11% to 2,669.91, while the Nasdaq inched higher 1.122 points, or 0.02%, to 7,119.799. There were wins for telecoms (+1.75%) and REITs (+1.32%), while energy (-1.22%) and tech (-0.32%) led the laggards. European equities were higher, the EuroSTOXX rose 0.89 points, or 0.23%, to 384.64, the German DAX put on 80.40 points, or 0.64%, to 12,580.87, and the London FTSE 100 gained 80.78 points, or 1.09%, to 7,502.21. In the currencies, the US dollar index eased 0.02% to 91.54201, the EUR traded up to 1.2130 while USD/JPY was as low as 109.00. US treasury yields were mixed, the 2 year yield firmed 0.21 bps to 2.4838% and the 10 year yield fell 2.41 bps to 2.9568%. In commodities news, oil prices were lower as Brent fell 0.13% to $74.64 and WTI lost 0.13% to $68.10. Base metals were broadly lower, with nickel (-2.46%) leading the losses. In US economic data, GDP grew at a seasonally adjusted annualised rate of 2.3% first quarter of 2018, beating economist forecasts of a 2% expansion. The employment cost index rose 0.8% in the first three months of 2018, following a 0.6% in the previous quarter, the index advanced 2.7% over the past year. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to an upwardly revised 98.8% in April from 101.4 in May. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei is at +0.66%, the Shanghai composite is at +0.23%, the Hang Seng at +1.50%, and the ASX S&P 200 is at +0.58%. Tonight we have personal income, consumer spending, core inflation, and Chicago PMI out of the US.

PRECIOUS: Better session for gold as the USD rally took a breather. Trade in gold was fairly subdued through Asian hours, the metal opened at $1317 and remained within a $3 range. The SGE premium was around $8-9 and Chinese buying helped support the market, we saw a test of the overnight low at $1315 on a couple of occasions throughout the day but each time the level held. Gold found some support in London and traded up to $1319 by the time the US came in. Investors began selling the dollar not long after NY open and the yellow metal pushed higher through the remainder of the session, reaching the days high of $1325 just before the close. Silver pared early losses to finish flat at $16.50. In the PGMs, platinum was flat while palladium traded down to $968. The Philadelphia gold and silver index added 0.49%. The SPDR gold trust holdings were unchanged at 871.20 metric tonnes. The markets have been quiet today with both China and Japan out for holidays. Gold is starting to soften late in the day, the yellow metal is sitting at $1319.00 as I write. Silver is at $16.43, with platinum and palladium sitting at $905 and $969 as I write. Gold has once again dipped below the 100 DMA this afternoon and is approaching the support level at yesterdays low of $1315, below that the psychological $1300 level awaits. On the topside, the recent high of $1325 will be the first target.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 24 Apr 2018

MACRO: US treasury yields continued to rise as traders expectation of rising inflation increases. The 10 year yield moved closer to the psychological 3% level, the benchmark rate has not traded that high since January 2014. The 2 year yield firmed 1.91 bps to 2.4764% and the 10 year yield rose 1.5 bps to 2.9752%. US equities were marginally lower as rising bond yields put pressure on the stock market. The Dow slipped 14.25 points, or 0.06%, to 24,448.69, the S&P 500 crept up 0.15 points, or 0.001% to 2,670.29, while the Nasdaq fell 17.524 points, or 0.25%, to 7,128.602. There were wins for telecoms (+1.08%) and energy (+0.61%) while tech (-0.40%) and materials (-0.30%) led the laggards. European equities were higher, the EuroSTOXX added 1.34 points, or 0.35%, to 383.18, the German DAX gained 31.89 points, or 0.25%, to 12,572.39, and the London FTSE 100 rose 30.70 points, or 0.42%, to 7,398.87. The greenback was bid was bid overnight ahead of key economic releases slated for later in the week. The US dollar index rose 0.68%, the EUR traded down to 1.2198, and USD/JPY traded up to 108.72. Oil prices were higher, Brent added 1.27% to $75.00 while WTI put on 0.76% to $68.92. Base metals were lower, with aluminium (-7.05%) the big loser on news that the US Treasury Department eased sanctions on Russian aluminium producer Rusal. In US economic data, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index reading was 0.10 in March down from 0.98 in February, with weaker employment indicators weighing on the broader index. The National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales rose 1.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.6M in March. The IHS Markit manufacturing PMI flash reading rose to 56.5 in April from 55.5 in March, while the services flash reading rose to 54.4 from 54. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei is at +0.62%, the Shanghai composite is at +1.66%, the Hang Seng at -+1.07%, and the ASX S&P 200 is at +0.46%. Tonight we have the consumer confidence index, Case-Shiller home prices, and new home sales out of the US; and Ifo current conditions, expectations, and business climate out of Germany.

PRECIOUS: Gold loses ground for the third consecutive session as broad US dollar strength continued to put pressure on the precious complex. Gold opened at $1334.90 and remained within the $1332-35 range through Asian trading hours, with the SGE premium remaining around $8. London were on the offer from the opening bell as the US dollar found a bid, gold was sold down to $1327 before stabilising. NY were happy to sell here, the market reached a low of $1322 and remained around the level for the remainder of the session. Heavy losses in base metals also reverberated through the precious, silver and palladium in particular were both heavily sold through key support levels. Silver shed almost 3% and palladium was hammered 3.6% to a low of $973. The Philadelphia gold and silver index lost 2.19%. In Asia today, gold is higher following some choppy trading this morning, the SGE premium has firmed slightly to $9 and we are seeing some buying out of China. The yellow metal is at $1326.50 as I write. Silver is still hovering around last night's lows, as I write the grey metal sits at $16.66. Very little price action in the PGMs. Gold should find close support between the 100 DMA at $1318 and the $1321 April low which held again last night, and around $1308 below that. On the upside, yesterdays high of $1335 should provide some resistance with the $1350 level providing the next target.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

DAILY REPORT : Wed 18 Apr 2018

MARKETS/MACRO: U.S. stocks rallied on Tuesday, with major indices closing at the highest levels in about a month as the latest round of corporate earnings supported the thought that valuations are supported by improved economic activity. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained +213.59 points, or +0.87%, to 24,786.63, the S&P500 advanced +28.55 points, or +1.07%, to 2,706.39 and the NASDAQ Composite added +124.814 points, or +1.74%, to 7,281.099. The best performing sector was Information Technology (+2.01%), while Financials trailed the pack (-0.07%). European stocks logged their best close in some 2 months, as attention shifted from geopolitical concerns to the earnings season. The EuroFirst 300 Index rallied +11.82 points, or +0.80% to 1,491.80 and the EuroStoxx 600 inclined +3.03 points, or +0.80% to 380.77. Regionally the DAX was a top performer up +1.57% on the day, with the CAC40 also impressive at +0.76% intra-day. In FX, dollar shorts were added during the Asian session yesterday and this was continued as London came on line, however, the market looked to fade this move thereafter. In particular, both the pound and the Euro pared back some of their gains in the NY session, with the former being closely watched as it continues to hover near post-Brexit highs. USDCHF was the biggest mover in the G10, up +0.6% on the day despite no news and very light flows. RUB continues to dominate the conversations in FX, ultimately finishing down -0.65% after new headlines that there once again may be additional sanctions on Russia. In fixed income, the US 2-year Treasury yield was up 1bp to 2.39%, a new decade high. The 10-year yield was lower by 1bp to 2.82% and spreads between these two maturities was the lowest since August 2007. The Geman10-year Bund yield fell 2bps to 0.51%.

China’s central bank announced yesterday it would reduce the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for most of the commercial banks in order to replace the maturing medium-term lending facility (MLF). The central bank said this move is to lower the cost of funds to the real economy, and the replacement will only increase the money supply incrementally. In Germany, the April ZEW index fell by 13 points to -8.2 (-1.0 expected), which is the first time in almost two years that it has fallen below zero. In addition to the recently weaker economic data, this is likely to be due to the trade conflict between the USA and China, the escalation of which would probably have a noticeable negative impact on the global economy. However, these are only fears of the analysts surveyed by the ZEW, and the ZEW Index has frequently given false signals in recent years. The extent to which the economy is actually losing momentum due to Trump's protectionism and other factors will be shown next week by the PMIs and the IFO business climate. In the U.S, building permits increased more than expected in March to +2.5% (+0.7% expected). The rise came amid a rebound in the construction of multi-family housing units. Weakness in the single-family segment suggested the housing market was slowing.

PRECIOUS: Gold had an inside day yesterday, trying lower through $1340 during NY, though ultimately closing fairly flat. We opened in Asia around $1346 and the initial move was higher, with some early specs looking to pick up gold cheaply ahead of what they predicted to be Chinese buying. A brief headline stating 'Missile targets Syria's Shuairat Airbase' helped the metal along as well, although Comex selling in the lead up to the $1350 cash level, capped proceedings. Later the USD started to strengthen which weighed on the yellow metal around the Shanghai open and it began to recede from $1349 to $1344, where some light two-way interest went through during the Asia am. Chinese demand was modest and it was largely fast money specs on the other side holding the market steady. Late in London/early NY the metal was swept lower following a headline that 'China was willing to cooperate with U.S on trade disagreement', and the metal dropped through $1340. There was a small stop-loss driven run to the days low of $1337.65, before quickly reversing. The general market sentiment was 'risk on' throughout NY, so it was a little surprising that the yellow managed to recover all the way back to the opening levels and close at $1347. Palladium continued its recent volatility with supply concerns continuing to worry traders, especially with the likelihood of further sanctions on Russia - the worlds largest producer. Pd flatlined throughout Asia around $1005 then ticked up to $1010 in London, before some swift and brutal profit taking was seen in a very thin market. The metal plummeted to $986.50, although found buyers down there. As the base metals began to tick higher, the palladium followed suit and shot to its highest level since early March ($1015), closing firm only a dollar or so off that level. The grey metal is now within striking distance of the 100 dma ($1021.50), with a clear break likely to extend towards $1045 resistance. Silver has again been pushing up against the topside of the range overnight ($16.80-95), with big resistance at the 200 dma (currently $16.80) keeping the brakes on - as it has very effectively since early February. There has been a lot of talk about how short the silver market is of late and an extended break through $17.00 would be very precarious for a number of specs out there.

A quiet session in Asia again for the metals gold steadily trading lower throughout the day. The yellow metal opened at the day's highs and slowly meandered its way lower prior to Japan and China opening towards $1345. The volume exchanged throughout the morning was extremely light however and traders were taking direction from the USD which was slightly stronger vs. most of the G10. Once the SGE opened up for business the premiums were largely unchanged from the previous day, sitting at $6-7, so interest was very limited. So some light buying flows were seen, yet gold continued to quietly edge lower over the afternoon towards $1343, where we currently sit. Silver followed gold and eased a few cents lower, while the PGM's are flat, palladium holding onto the gains seen overnight around $1015. In other markets, Asian equities are currently all in the black, the Nikkei +1.4%, Hang Seng +0.65%, Shanghai Composite +0.25% and ASX200 +0.35%, the USD is mixed and crude is stronger, WTI is up +$0.37 (+0.55%) to $67.05 and Brent has gained +$0.50 (+0.75%) to $72.10. On the data front today look out for UK and Eurozone CPI, BoC rate decision and U.S Mortgage applications and Beige Book.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Friday 27 Apr 2018

MACRO: US equities finished higher on some strong quarterly earnings results. The tech sector got a huge boost from Facebook, shares in the company jumped 9.1% on the back of March quarter earnings that were well ahead of forecasts. The Dow rose 238.51 points, or 0.99%, to 24,322.34, the S&P 500 added 27.54 points, or 1.04% to 2,666.94, while the Nasdaq gained 114.940 points, or 1.64%, to 7,118.677. There wins for tech (+2.27%), consumer discretionary (+1.59%) and energy (+1.50%), while telecoms (-3.23%) led the laggards. European equities were higher, the EuroSTOXX advanced 3.58 points, or 0.94%, to 383.75, the German DAX put on 78.17 points, or 0.63%, to 12,500.47, and the London FTSE 100 rose 42.11 points, or 0.57%, to 7,421.43. In the currencies, the US dollar index firmed 0.44% to a 4 month high of 91.575 and represents a break of the downtrend from the March, April, November and December 2017 highs. The EUR traded down to 1.2095, while USD/JPY was as high as 109.40. US treasury yields were lower, the 2 year yield eased 0.61 bps to 2.4817% and the 10 year yield fell 4.5 bps to 2.9809%. In commodities, oil prices were higher as Brent rose 1.05% to $74.78 and WTI ticked up 0.16% to $68.16. Base metals were mixed, with aluminium (+1.34%) the biggest mover. In US economic data, durable goods orders rose 2.6% in March on the back of a large increase in contracts for Boeing aeroplanes. Durable goods orders ex-transport was flat. Core capital goods orders fell 0.1% in March following a downwardly revised 0.9% increase in February. The trade deficit in goods shrunk 10.3% to $68 billion in March as per the US governments advanced report, this is the first time the deficit has narrowed in 7 months. Initial jobless claims fell by 24k to 209k in the week ending 21st April, while continuing claims fell 29k to 1.84M. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei is at +0.42%, the Shanghai composite is at -0.78%, the Hang Seng at +0.19%, and the ASX S&P 200 is at +0.48%. Tonight we have GDP, employment cost index, and consumer sentiment index out of the US; consumer confidence, business confidence, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, economic sentiment and consumer inflation expectations out of the Eurozone; and GDP and unemployment out of Germany.

PRECIOUS: Tough session for the precious with gold looking shaky in the face of broad support for the greenback.Gold opened at $1322 and traded a tight $3 range through Asian hours. The SGE premium was at $8-9 over loco London, Chinese buying helped squeeze the market to a high of $1325 just before the London open. The London AM session was choppy as volatility crept into the currency markets. The yellow metal plunged to a fresh April low of $1315 in early NY hours as the USD caught a bid. Gold finished close to the lows at $1316, closing below the 100 DMA for the first time since December of last year. Silver dropped to a low of $16.41 before finishing in the red at $16.50. Palladium was the best performer, surging $27 off the low to print a high of $992. The Philadelphia gold and silver index rose 0.07%. SPDR gold trust holdings were unchanged at 871.20 metric tonnes. In Asia today, gold has remained within the $1315-18 range in quiet trading. The SGE premium is higher at $9-10 over loco London. The yellow metal is at $1316.50 as I write. Silver has been range-bound, he grey metal sits at $16.50 as I write. PGM's are flat. Gold is looking weaker after the close below the 100 DMA, if the US dollar remains bid we could see a test of the psychological $1300 level. On the upside, last nights high of $1325 should provide some resistance.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Monday 23 Apr 2018

MACRO: US equities were lower Friday as the 10 year US treasury yield reached a 4 year high and a heavy loss for Apple dragged the tech sector lower. The Dow lost 201.95 points, or 0.82%, to 24,462.94, the S&P 500 fell 22.99 points, or 0.85% to 2,670.14, while the Nasdaq slipped 91.930 points, or 1.27%, to 7,146.126. Consumer staples (-1.68%) and tech (-1.51%) weighed heaviest on the markets. European equities were mixed, the EuroSTOXX edged lower 0.11 points, or 0.03%, to 381.84, the German DAX shed 26.92 points, or 0.21%, to 12,540.50, and the London FTSE 100 added 39.25 points, or 0.54%, to 7,368.17. In the currencies, the US dollar index rallied 0.42% to 90.316, the EUR traded down to 1.2265, while USD/JPY climbed to 107.79. US treasury yields were higher, the 2 year yield firmed 2.98 bps to 2.4573% and the 10 year yield rose 5.04 bps to 2.9602%. Oil prices were higher, Brent rose 0.38% to$74.06 while WTI firmed 0.10% to $68.40. Base metals were mixed, with nickel (-1.63%) making the biggest move. There was no significant economic data released on Friday. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei is at -0.28%, the Shanghai composite is at -0.14%, the Hang Seng at -0.34%, and the ASX S&P 200 is at +0.30%. Tonight we have the Chicago Fed national activity index, Markit manufacturing PMI (flash), Markit services PMI (flash), and existing home sales out of the US; and Markit services & manufacturing PMI (flash) out of the Eurozone.

PRECIOUS: A soft session as rising treasury yields and a US dollar rally put pressure on the precious complex. Gold opened at $1345 in Asia and drifted lower through day as the greenback firmed against the yen. The SGE premium was around $8 over loco London, which helped support the market at around $1341. Gold remained mostly within the $1340-43 range during the London AM session. The yellow metal was sold to the session low $1334 early in NY trading as the EUR dropped below 1.23. After a brief rebound but unconvincing rebound, gold finished the day around the lows. Silver was on the offer early but appeared to find some support ahead of the $17 level, the grey metal finishing at $17.11. It was a volatile session for palladium, the metal shed $20 to a low of $1012 before surging to a high of $1039 in NY trading. The Philadelphia gold and silver index lost 0.65%. The SPDR gold trust holdings were unchanged at 865.69 metric tonnes. In Asia today, gold has been range-bound between $1332-34 with the market fairly quiet. The SGE premium remains around $8 over loco London, The yellow metal is at 1333.50 as I write. Silver tested the technical $17 level earlier in the day and found buyers once again. The grey metal is at $17.09 as I write. PGMs are trading sideways. Gold is sitting just above the the 55 DMA at $1331, and should find support at the April lows around $1321 below that. On the upside, expect plenty of buyers above $1340.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 17 Apr 2018

MACRO: US equities rallied on Monday as geopolitical concerns appear to be easing. The Dow added 212.90 points, or 0.87%, to 24,573.04, the S&P 500 rose 21.54 points, or 0.81% to 2,677.84, while the Nasdaq gained 49.635 points, or 0.7%, to 7,156.285. Telecoms (+1.49%), utilities (1.38%), and materials (+1.38%) led a broad advance in the markets. European equities were lower, the EuroSTOXX lost 1.46 points, or 0.39%, to 377.74, the German DAX fell 50.99 points, or 0.41%, to 12,391.41, and the London FTSE 100 slipped 66.36 points, or 0.91%, to 7,198.20. In the currencies, the US dollar index eased 0.41% to 89.432, the EUR traded up to 1.2388, while USD/JPY traded down to 107.04. US treasury yields were mixed, the 2 year yield firmed 2.07 bps to 2.3773% and the 10 year yield was unchanged at 2.8267%. In commodities, oil prices were lower as Brent sold off 1.38% to $71.58 and WTI lost 1.56% to $66.34. Base metals were broadly higher, with aluminium (+4.99%) leading the way higher. In US economic data, retail sales rose 0.6% in March following a 0.1% decline in February, the gain breaks a run of three straight monthly declines. Retail sales ex-autos rose 0.2% for a second straight month. The Empire State manufacturing index fell to 15.8 in April from a reading of 22.5 in March. The new orders index fell 7.8 points to 9 in April and the shipments index fell to 17.5. The National Association of Home Builders confidence index slipped to 69 in April from 70 in March. Business inventories rose 0.6% in February following a 0.6% rise in January, according to the Commerce Department. The total business inventories/sales ratio was 1.35 in February. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei is at +0.01%, the Shanghai composite is at -0.21%, the Hang Seng at +0.03%, and the ASX S&P 200 is at +0.42%. Tonight we have housing starts, building permits, industrial production, and capacity utilisation out of the US; and economic sentiment out of the Eurozone.

PRECIOUS: A volatile session for the precious in the first trading day following the US missile strikes on Syria on Friday evening. Gold was fairly choppy during Asian hours, an early dip down to the days low of $1340 was followed by quick recovery back to the opening levels around $1345, then on to $1348 as the Chinese came in. The SGE premium was at $8 which prompted buying out of China, but the market was capped around that $1348 mark. A sell-off in late Asian hours saw the market slide to $1341 by the opening bell in London. More whippy trade through the London AM session as the US dollar was sold sharply against the EUR. The yellow metal found a bid in NY and climbed to the session high $1350, though resting orders at that level provided firm resistance. Gold finally settled to a close around the opening level at $1345. Silver printed a high of $16.77 but ultimately gave up the gains in a whippy session. Palladium picked up where it left off last week, surging 2.5% to a high of $1011 and trading above the $1000 level for the first time since mid-March. The Philadelphia gold and silver index lost 0.12%. The SPDR gold trust holdings were unchanged at 865.69 metric tonnes. Gold ticked up a couple of dollars after the open in Asia, and on to a high of $1348.80 as USD/JPY dipped below 107. The SGE premium is unchanged at around $8 over loco London. The yellow metal is drifting lower as the afternoon progresses, and is sitting at $1344.50 as I write. Silver is flat at $16.66. In the PGMs, platinum is edging higher and palladium is holding above $1000. Gold should find broad support between $1340-42 and at the 55 DMA level at $1331 below that. The $1350 level which has held over the last couple of days will be the first point of resistance, a consolidation above that level could see the yellow metal make another attempt on the 2018 high of $1364.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.