DAILY REPORT : Wed 4 Oct 2017

MACRO: Major U.S. automakers reported higher new vehicle sales during September as consumers in storm hit areas of the country replace damaged vehicles. According to automakers, while increases were recorded outside of the storm zones, much of the September gains came after Hurricane Harvey hit Texas. General Motor's reported a +11.8% jump in sales relative to the same period 12-months ago, while importantly, inventory dropped to 76 days from 88 days in August. Ford reported a +8.9% gain in sales, led by a 21.4% increase in purchases of the F-Series pickup, Toyota sales soared +14.9%, Honda sales increased +7%, Nissan sales rose +9.5%, while Fiat Chrysler lagged to report a -10% decline. In a session void of major economic data, U.S. equities once again pushed to fresh record closing levels as investor's reacted to the latest auto sales data. The DJIA ended trade +0.37% higher at 22,641.67 points to notch its fifth consecutive daily gain, while the S&P 500 tacked on +0.22% to 2,534.58 points to mark six consecutive session gains as industrials (+0.48%) and technology (+0.46%) underpinned the bourse. The Nasdaq Composite edged +0.23% higher to 6,531.714 points to post a sixth consecutive session gain, while the Russell 200 small cap index added +0.17% to close at a second consecutive all-time record. Oil futures eased modestly lower on Tuesday as participants considered the implications of the decline in adherence to OPEC production cuts. WTI declined around -0.3% to USD $50.45 per barrel, while Brent crude dipped -0.35% to end underneath USD $56 per barrel. The greenback traded mixed on Tuesday, however continues to hold around a seven-month high as declines against the euro were offset by continued strength in USD/JPY. European stock markets firmed on Tuesday, with investors turning focus to developments in Spain following the weekend Catalonian Independence Referendum. The Stoxx Europe 600 continued its recent strength to add +0.15% and book a ninth consecutive session gain, while the French CAC 40 added +0.32% and the German Dax was closed for Unity Day. Data released out of the U.K. showed the construction sector unexpectedly contracted during September, seeing the Markit construction PMI below 50 for the first time in 13-months. The index sunk to 48.1 (exp: 51.1) from 51.1 previously as a shortfall in new work weighs upon the sector. Equities in the U.K. ended trade +0.39% higher on Tuesday as the softer than expected construction data weighed upon the pound.

PRECIOUS: A generally muted session for bullion on Tuesday, with early dollar strength dissipating to see the metal recover from weakness in Asia and end importantly around the 100 DMA (USD $1,272.50). Further risk-on trade saw U.S. and European equity markets continue higher (fresh records in the U.S.), however a strengthening euro to cap dollar gains and mildly softening U.S. treasury yields provided an underlying level of support for gold as the metal held a relatively tight range. Asian trade on Wednesday saw a modest recovery to bullion on the back of dollar weakness around the Japanese open, notably against the yen, however also against the euro. The yellow metal triggered a mild stop loss run above USD $1,275 (previous session high) and saw sustained strength throughout the afternoon to consolidate gains in relatively thin trade on account of China's holiday. The yellow metal looks to be settling in for a period of consolidation around current levels as interest out of Asia remains muted due to the Chinese holiday period. The short-term key support for the metal remains the 100 DMA pivot point, while should bullion extend recent weakness, the next target will be the 200 DMA and key psychological level around USD $1,250, where we expect to see strong support. We expect positioning data to show a lightening of longs following the recent weakness and a healthy reduction would bode well for the metal over the short to medium term. The U.S. tax reform package poses a short-term risk to the precious complex, with the potential to influence GDP projections and the expected path of interest rate increases. Currently however, there still seems to be a number of hurdles in the way of the Republican's planned reform. Silver price action remained buoyant during Asian trade today, adding around +0.7% to a USD $16.75 session high, while palladium regained some of Monday's decline to once again trade at a premium to platinum. Data releases today include Markit services/composite PMI prints out of France, Germany, the Eurozone, the U.K. and the U.S. We will also see out of the U.S. the ISM non-manufacturing composite PMI, vehicle sales and ADP employment data.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 28 Sep 2017

MACRO: President Trump has announced sweeping tax reforms in a speech at the Indiana State Fairgrounds on Wednesday, outlining an ambitious plan of tax cuts to both individuals and business. "This is a revolutionary change, and the biggest winners will be the everyday American workers as jobs start pouring into our country, as companies start competing for American labor and as wages start going up at levels that you haven't seen for many years," Mr Trump said. The plan will reduce the number of individual tax brackets from seven down to three, with rates set at 12 percent, 25 percent and 35 percent, and frame work in place to allow congress a fourth bracket above 35 percent if deemed necessary. The plan also simplifies and cuts taxes for the middle class, doubling the standard deduction to $12,000 for individuals and $24,000 for married couples filing jointly. In an attempt to make American companies more competitive, the proposal seeks to reduce the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to just 20 percent. President Trump commented that, "This will be the lowest top marginal income tax rate for small and midsize businesses in this country in more than 80 years. Durable goods orders in the U.S. rebounded during August to outpace expectations, increasing +1.7% (exp: +1.0%) to follow a -6.8% decline during July. The headline figure benefitted from the volatile civilian aircraft category, while durable goods ex-transportation added +0.2% (exp: +0.2%) from +0.8% previously. The closely watched non-defence capital goods ex-air added +0.9% (exp: +0.3%) to follow a +1.1% gain during July, while capital goods shipments non-defence ex-air gained +0.7% (exp: +0.1%). Pending home sales in the U.S. declined -2.6% during August to the lowest level in almost 18-months as a lack of inventory weighs upon the market. U.S. equity markets endured volatile trade on Wednesday, however ultimately ended the session higher as President Trump unveiled sweeping tax reforms. The S&P 500 ended trade with a +0.41% gain at 2,507.04 points, touching an intra-day all time record of 2,511.75 points as financials (+1.30%) supported the bourse higher. The DJIA tacked on +0.25% to 22,340.71 points, recovering mid-session following a sharp early session decline to snap a four session losing streak, while the Nasdaq Composite surged +1.15% higher to 6,453.263 points. The greenback continued to strengthen on Wednesday as the DXY index touched the highest level in over a month. Further declines to the euro saw it test 1.1700 against the dollar, while the yen gave up further ground to break above 113.00 for the first time since mid-July. Treasury yields surged higher on Wednesday on the back of optimism surrounding tax reform. The ten-year gained over 7bps to 2.308% and the two-year added around 3.7bps to 1.473%. Markets in Europe booked gains on Wednesday, with financial stocks doing the heavy lifting following Fed Chair Yellen's recent hawkish comments. The Stoxx Europe 600 jumped to its highest close since mid-July to end +0.4% higher, while the German Dax also tacked on +0.4% as exporters found support from a softer euro. In the U.K. the FTSE 100 snapped a two session losing streak to end +0.4% higher as miners pushed higher and the pound softened.

PRECIOUS: Tuesday's dollar strength continued during Asian trade today, as gold struggled to find bids following a break of the USD $1,290 support during U.S. hours. Chinese physical demand remained evident throughout the pre-lunch session, however interest acted only to restrict further declines rather than initiate any assemblance of a recovery. Like clockwork, China's exit saw gold push to fresh session lows and threaten a break of USD $1,280, with regional names on the offer during the Chinese lunch break to extend declines below Tuesday's New York low print. Further gains to USD/JPY above 113.00 weighed further upon the metal and although China returned after lunch with a mild bid bias, interest was once again underwhelming and failed to support the market, with bullion triggering stops to a fresh intra-session low of USD $1,277.90. President Trump's tax reforms are underpinning further dollar strength, with the DXY pushing through a number of technical top-side targets that would indicate we will see further gains over the short-term. Late Asian interest has seen bullion recover to within the broad USD $1,280 - USD $1,284 support level, however further gains to the greenback are likely to see the metal test the 100 DMA at USD $1,272 and this could open up the 200 DMA at USD $1,248. Geopolitical concerns are still abundant and ETF's continue to accumulate metal, therefore interest toward USD $1,271 should act as a short term buying level. The concern is bullion will be unable to extend beyond this key support and become susceptible to further declines as China takes holidays next week, in essence removing the underlying physical demand that has been supporting prices in Asia recently. With regards to the white metals, it is worth making note that palladium surpassed platinum in New York overnight, the first time in 16 years after rising close to +35% in 2017 thus far. Data today includes German CPI, U.S. PCE, U.S. initial jobless claims, U.S. wholesale inventories and U.S. Bloomberg consumer confidence.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Friday 22 Sep 2017

MACRO: A storm affected initial jobless claims print in the U.S. declined 23,000 to 259,000 (exp: 302,000) during the week ended September 16. Claims in Texas had surged in the wake of Hurricane Harvey with some workers left temporarily unemployed, however unadjusted claims for Texas decreased 23,549 last week and unadjusted claims for Florida increased 5,133 following Hurricane Irma. Last weeks' print saw the four-week moving average increase 6,000 to 268,750, while continuing claims jumped 44,000 to 1.980 million (exp: 1.975 million) during the week ended September 9. The Philadelphia Fed business outlook surged higher during September, with the headline print jumping to 23.8 (exp: 17.1) from 18.9 previously. The shipments index surged to 37.8 from 29.4 to mark the second highest level since 2004, while the new orders index popped to 29.4 from 20.4. House prices in the U.S. inched +0.2% MoM higher during July (exp: +0.4%) according to the latest Federal Housing Finance Agency data, following a +0.1% gain during June. U.S. equity markets retreated from record highs on Thursday, seeing broad based declines as the DJIA snapped a nine session winning streak. Declines to nine of eleven components of the S&P 500 saw the bourse end the session -0.30% lower at 2,500.60 points, while the DJIA pulled back -0.24% to 22,359.23 points and the Nasdaq Composite dropped -0.52% to 6,422.693 points. U.S. treasury yields ended little changed on Thursday, leaving the 2-year yield hovering around an almost nine-year high at 1.442%, while the ten-year held around 2.278%. European markets ended trade mixed on Thursday, as bank stocks turned bid following the FOMC announcement and associated commentary. The Stoxx Europe 600 closed +0.24% higher at 382.88 points to mark the highest close since late July, while the German Dax tacked on +0.25%, with gains tempered by a marginally stronger euro. In the U.K. the FTSE 100 endured whippy trade to end just -0.11% down as gains to banks to were offset by weakness across commodity related stocks due to a stronger greenback.

PRECIOUS: News out of South Korea reporting that North Korea may consider testing a hydrogen bomb in the Pacific saw investors push back into safe haven assets during early Asian trade today. There were no concrete details regarding a test, rather North Korean foreign minister Ri Yong Ho was cited as saying that such a test "could be the most powerful detonation of an H-bomb in the Pacific," The headlines saw USD/JPY sink to a 112.02 low after trading toward 112.55 pre-news, while gold jumped to USD $1,296.80, adding around USD $4. Chinese interest was once again prevalent to underpin the early session bid tone, seeing bullion to a USD $1,298.30 high as the on-shore premium held toward USD $6 relative to loco London gold. Afternoon trade saw USD/JPY extend earlier weakness to push below 112.00, keeping bullion price action buoyant into European hours. Top-side targets for the yellow metal extend to the USD $1,300 pivot point and USD $1,315 - $1,320 above this, while initial support sits toward the Thursday New York low at USD $1,288. Data releases today include Markit manufacturing / services / composite PMI prints from France, Germany and the Eurozone, Canadian CPI and U.S. Markit manufacturing / services / composite PMI prints.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 3 Oct 2017

MACRO: At least 59 people are dead and more than 500 injured following the deadliest mass shooting in U.S. history in Las Vegas on Monday. Police report 64-year-old Stephen Paddock of Mesquite, Nevada opened fire on more than 22,000 concert-goers at the Route 91 Harvest music festival from the 32nd floor of the Mandalay Bay Hotel. U.S. President Donald Trump has condemned the actions of the shooter as "an act of pure evil." and offered his condolences to the families of those killed. The FBI and the Department of Homeland Security are working closely with local authorities to assists investigations and at this stage there are no confirmed links to terrorism. The Institute for Supply Management reported on Monday that manufacturing activity in the U.S. spiked to the highest level in 13 years during September. The ISM manufacturing Index jumped to 60.8 (exp: 58.1) from 58.8 during August to mark the highest print since May 2004. The headline print was underpinned by strong gains to new orders, increasing to 64.6 from 60.3 previously, prices paid surged to 71.5 (prev: 62.0) to mark the highest level since May 2011. Markit's measure of U.S. manufacturing activity suggested further improvement across the sector during September. The Markit U.S. manufacturing PMI increased to 53.1 (exp: 53.0) from an earlier estimate of 53.0 and August's 52.8. Production growth continued to expand and employment increased at the fastest rate in nine months. U.S. equity markets ended at fresh record high prints on Monday, with investor's shaking off the tragic events in Las Vegas as a number of measures of manufacturing activity buoyed the market. The DJIA ended trade +0.68% higher at a fresh record close of 22,557.60 points, while strength across materials (+1.09%), healthcare (+0.95%) and financials (+0.89%) took the S&P 500 +0.39% higher to a record close at 2,529.12 points. Treasury yields in the U.S. edged modestly higher on Monday to see the ten-year to 2.34% and the two-year at 1.487%. Oil futures sunk on Monday to the lowest level in more than a week as OPEC data showed a decline in compliance with regards to the production cut agreement. WTI fell over -2% to settle around USD $50.58 per barrel after seeing further downwards pressure from a Baker Hughes report noting an increase in active oil rigs in the U.S., while Brent crude dipped just over -1% to USD $56.10 per barrel. Markets across Europe started the week on a positive note, with gains underpinned by a softer common currency following violent clashes in Spain after the weekend's Catalonian independence referendum. The Stoxx Europe 600 ended trade +0.51% higher to post an eighth consecutive session gain, while the German Dax added +0.58%. In the U.K. the FTSE 100 (+0.90%) jumped to the highest level in nearly two-months as the pound dropped below 1.3300.

PRECIOUS: Bullion continued to trade under pressure during Asian trade on Tuesday, struggling to find bids in a market void of Chinese demand, while further gains to the greenback pressured the metal lower. With U.S. equities hitting fresh all time high prints on Monday and the dollar king once again, risk is well and truly back on the table and the precious complex, notably gold is suffering as a result. The yellow metal tested below the 100 DMA late in New York on Monday, sharply breaking through the figure (USD $1,272.50) on a 2,400 lot sweep to USD $1,269.90, before recovering modestly into the close. Bullion extended weakness during Asian trade today to reverse an early bid tone as USD/JPY pushed above 113.00. The metal saw initial support around the New York low, however with China on holiday, any semblance of a recovery quickly evaporated as a fresh low of USD $1,268.30 was printed. An afternoon recovery kept gold within check of the 100 DMA and this figure will be the key today in restricting any further declines. Should gold continue to trade lower, the next target will be the 200 DMA and key psychological level around USD $1,250. With regards to the white metals, palladium collapsed -2.7% on Monday as participants took profit and dragged the metal back in-line with platinum, with the two trading in tandem during Asian hours today. Data releases today include U.K. Markit construction PMI and Eurozone PPI.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Wed 27 Sep 2017

MACRO: Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen addressed the National Association for Business Economics in Cleveland on Tuesday, and in a continuation from her FOMC press conference last week, Yellen took a hawkish stance on the path to interest rate normalisation. The Fed still expects longer-run inflation to trend toward the 2 percent target and a regular pace of rate hikes ahead is likely still warranted, with Yellen noting that, "My colleagues and I may have misjudged the strength of the labor market, the degree to which longer-run expectations are consistent with our inflation objective, or even the fundamental forces driving inflation," Although Chair Yellen pressed the case for gradual increases to the short-term interest rate, she noted that there are risks associated with moving too slowly, noting "Without further modest increases in the federal funds rate over time, there is a risk that the labor market could eventually become overheated, potentially creating inflationary problems down the road that might be difficult to overcome without triggering a recession," U.S. Republican's have put an end for now to their campaign promise to repeal and replace Obamacare, not even taking the Graham-Cassidy bill to a vote as it became evident they simply did not have the numbers to pass the bill. It now looks likely any further attempts at healthcare reform will have to wait until at least next year, maybe even longer. "We're gonna come back to this after taxes," said co-lead sponsor of the bill, Senator Lindsey Graham. The GOP holds 52 seats in the senate and needed 50 to vote in favor for the bill to pass, however Republican Senators John McCain, Rand Paul and Susan Collins came out in opposition. Consumer confidence in the U.S. declined to 119.8 (exp: 120.0) during September, pulling back from August's five month high of 120.4 (revised lower from 122.9). The main drags came from hurricane hit areas such as Texas and Florida, while the present situation index fell to 146.1 from 151.2 previously and the expectations index declined to 102.2 from 104.0 previously. New home sales in the U.S. decreased -3.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 560,000 units last month, the lowest level in eight months and likely driven by storm activity. U.S. equity markets ended Tuesday marginally mixed, easing late in trade to hand back early session gains as Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen hit the wires. The S&P 500 ended trade just +0.01% higher as a bounce to technology (+0.40%) helped to offset declines amongst eight of eleven components of the bourse. The DJIA booked a fourth consecutive decline to ease -0.05% to 22,284.32 points, while the Nasdaq outperformed to end +0.15% higher. U.S. treasury yields were on the march once again, seeing the ten-year 1.6bps higher to 2.2357% and the two-year 1.26bps higher to 1.4356% after the treasury sold USD $26 billion two-year notes at 1.462% yield, the highest in nearly nine years. A softer common currency saw major European bourse's eke out modest gains on Tuesday, as the dust settles following the weekend German elections. The Stoxx Europe 600 edged just +0.03% higher, while the German Dax endured whippy trade after a soft open to end the session +0.08% higher. The U.K. FTSE 100 booked a second consecutive loss on Tuesday, sliding late in trade to end -0.21% down as the pound saw strength against the euro to touch the highest level since July.

PRECIOUS: Bullion once again failed to build upon geopolitical uncertainty on Tuesday, well offered in the face of a rampant greenback to end underneath USD $1,300 and hand back -1.3% on the session. After trading bid throughout the Asian session, gold soon ran into offers once European names opened for business, sliding below USD $1,310 in early pricing, before being weighed down by a USD/JPY move through 112.00 to test support at USD $1,300. The figure broadly held in early New York trade, however Janet Yellen's hawkish speech in Cleveland gave the dollar a further leg higher, seeing gold to a USD $1,293.35 session low and unable to recover into the close. It is worth noting that ETF's accumulated 285k ounces on Tuesday, clearly happy to pick up the metal on dips. We continued to see solid physical interest from regional names during Asian trade today, reversing an early stop loss run through the overnight low to trade generally buoyant throughout the session. Once again Chinese demand underpinned the price action, however mid session USD/JPY weakness helped to keep the metal around USD $1,295 during afternoon trade. Key support continues to sit around USD $1,290 Dec (tested numerous times), while below this we will be looking to USD $1,280 - USD $1,284 (55 DMA) as the next level of support. Should weakness extend further, this could open up the 200 DMA at USD $1,246.50. Silver disappointed yesterday, unable to make a consolidated break above the 200 DMA at USD $17.15, and shed -2.2% on the way to a close well below the 100 DMA at USD $16.90. Platinum continues to soften with the majority of the active contract roll and quarter end producer selling now out of the way, while palladium is proving to be resilient, albeit range bound as the metal approaches parity with platinum. Data releases today include U.S. durable goods, capital goods and pending home sale.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

 

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 21 Sep 2017

MACRO: The FOMC voted unanimously to keep interest rates unchanged and announced it would begin to reduce its $4.5 trillion balance sheet in October. The method of reduction involves the Fed ending it's practice of reinvesting principal payments. Payments will only be reinvested when they exceed gradually increasing monthly caps, beginning at $10b and rising quarterly. Projections for the total number of expected rate hikes in 2017 remain unchanged with one more 0.25 point rise this year. US equities were mostly higher following the announcement, with the S&P 500 posting a fresh record high. The Dow added 41.79 points, or 0.19%, to 22,412.59; the S&P 500 edged higher 1.59 points, or 0.06% to 2,508.24, and the Nasdaq slipped 5.28 points, or 0.08%, to 6,456.044. Energy (+0.69%) and industrials (+0.68%) were the best performers while consumer staples (-0.89%) led the laggards. European shares were very narrowly mixed ahead of the announcement from across the Atlantic, the EuroSTOXX lost 0.14 points, or 0.04%, to 381.98, the German DAX inched higher 7.38 points, or 0.06%, to 12,569.17, and the London FTSE 100 declined 3.3 points, or 0.05%, to 7,271.95. The currency markets saw some decent movement as investors reacted to the FOMC announcement, the US dollar index climbed 0.68% to 92.419, the EUR traded down to 1.1873, while USD/JPY was as high as 112.48. US treasury yields were higher, the 2 year yield rose 3.71 bps to 1.4382% and the 10 year yield gained 2.65 bps to 2.2711%. In commodities news, oil prices rallied on talk of possible deeper OPEC cuts, Brent firmed 1.9% to $56.19 while WTI rose 1.88% to $50.41. Base metals were mostly higher, with aluminium (+2.45%) leading the gains. In US economic data, the National Association of Realtors said existing home sales fell 1.7% to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.35M in August from 5.44M in July. This represents the lowest level in 12 months, with agents blaming a lack of inventory as the main driver. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei sits at +0.20%, the Shanghai composite is at +0.04%, the Hang Seng at -0.11%, and the ASX S&P 200 at -0.8%. Tonight we have weekly jobless claims and the Philly Fed index out of the US; and consumer confidence (flash) out of the Eurozone.

PRECIOUS: Tough session for the precious as the firming US dollar, spurred on by news from the FOMC meeting, weighs on the markets. Gold opened at $1310 and firmed slightly through the day in fairly light trade, the SGE premium was at $5-6 over loco London. The market peaked at $1315 during the London AM session but found itself trading back around the opening level as NY came in. The greenback surged on the news from the Fed, USD/JPY trading above 112 for the ft time since July, and the yellow metal nose-dived, losing almost $20 to the low of $1296. A very modest bounce saw the XAU finish around the key support at $1300. Silver suffered the same fate, the grey metal shedding 30c after the announcement to test the $17 level. Palladium was the most resilient performer on the day, clawing back early losses to finish flat at $910. The Philadelphia gold and silver index dropped 2%. The SPDR gold trust holdings were unchanged at 846.03 metric tons. In todays trading, gold took a dip down to $1265 during the morning session but quickly recovered above $1300 before drifting lower through the afternoon. The SGE premium is slightly higher at $7-8 over loco London. The yellow metal is at $1296.90 as I write. Silver opened at $17.14 and has traded steadily lower through the session, the grey metal sits at $17 as I write. In the PGMs, Palladium found support early, trading to the high of $920 before giving back the gains to sit flat for the session.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Monday 2 Oct 2017

MARKETS/MACRO: U.S equities had another positive week to round out the third quarter, with the S&P closing at another record high on Friday, boosted by tech stocks in particular. The S&P500 rallied +9.30 points, or +0.37%, to 2,519.36 on the day, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained +23.89 points, or +0.11%, to 22,405.09 and the NASDAQ added +42.509 points, or +0.66%, to 6,495.959. Technology stocks performed best up +0.75%, with utilities (-0.11%) lagging. In Europe it was an equally impressive performance with most of the major indices locking in their best monthly increase of the year. A string of upbeat data and a rally in bank stocks pushed the rise with the FTSE Euro First 300 gaining +6.73 points, or +0.44% to 1,524.79 and the Stoxx 600 index up +1.8 points, or +0.47% to 388.16. Regionally the DAX advanced +98%, FTSE100 +0.68% and CAC40 +0.68%. Crude oil nudged higher, with WTI up +0.3% to $51.67 a barrel, concluding the strongest quarter for oil prices in more than a year. Further strength was limited by OPEC production rising through September, led by Nigeria and Libya. The dollar enjoyed a good week on incipient hopes for US tax cuts to add to the support from a self-confident Fed. Friday however the USD did retreat marginally the dollar index selling off -0.01% to 93.076, as the U.S PCE inflation data surprised to the down side. The front end of the treasury curve shot up after the Wall Street Journal reported Kevin Warsh was interviewed for the Fed Chair post. He has been an inflation hawk and openly against QE when he was a Fed President. U.S. 2y yields rose +4 bps as a result to 1.483% while 10y's rose +2 bps to 2.333%.

On the data front, the Fed’s preferred price gauge, the PCE price index, rose +0.2% in August from a year earlier according to the U.S Commerce Department and just missing expectations of +0.3%. Core PCE also rose a modest +0.1% on the month, less than economists expectations of +0.2%. The miss will keep Fed doves cautious about inflation dynamics. Despite the soft annual picture there has been an increasing trend since May, driven by a pick-up in goods prices and steady services price gains. The consumer sentiment index, a survey of consumers by The University of Michigan, hit 95.1 in September in a final reading Friday, which was lower than an expected 95.3 (95.3 prior).The sub-indices were mixed: current conditions fell to 111.7 while expectations rose to 84.4. In Europe, core inflation eased back to +1.1% YoY in September (1.2% expected, +1.2% prior). Services inflation, which is 45% of the HICP, eased a tenth to +1.5% YoY (+1.6% expected, +1.5% prior). The core inflation data confirms how difficult it is to get inflation up despite growth currently running above trend. It reflects a demand deficiency and fits with the ECB's view that very accommodative monetary policy is still required, even if it intends to start dialling back QE. The ECB is actually expecting headline inflation to fall to around +0.9% YoY in Q1 2018.

PRECIOUS: Gold continued its downward path on Friday trading through $1280 and ultimately closing on a soft note to round out the quarter. During September the yellow metal has relinquished -3.2% after hitting a high of $1357, the worst monthly slide of the year amidst a backdrop of a rising USD and looming Fed rate hikes. Trade last Friday started out fairly neutral in Asia, with some light two way interest seen ahead of China's week long holiday this week. The market opened around $1287 and traded sideways into the SGE open. Gold sold off a few dollars leading into the SGE open, with some widely fluctuating premiums seen on the Chinese exchange ($5-9) for onshore traders. Some buying was seen into the Asia afternoon/ European morning but producer offers were seen ahead of $1290 capping things throughout their day. There was a brief push higher at the NY open, the yellow metal briefly hitting an intra-day high of $1290.60 before producers came in and sold the market aggressively. The metal continued to slide throughout the remainder of the low, positing a fresh monthly low beneath $1280. Some large stops went through around that level and the market quickly sank to a low of $1277.50 but managed to hold just beneath $1280 into the close. Palladium is still trading at a premium to its stablemate platinum, with the metal in short supply and demand from auto's and speculators remaining strong. Palladium, in contrast to gold, silver and platinum, rose an impressive 11% during September and taking the total yearly gains to a whopping +38% thus far. Elsewhere, according to the World Gold Council, the Bank of Russia has more than doubled its pace of gold purchases in recent months. Since 2007, the central banks holdings have quadrupled to 1716 tonnes (end June), putting it just behind China. Of Russia's total $427 billion worth of reserves gold now makes up a significant ~17% of this.

Today marked the first day of the week long Chinese holiday, with liquidity noticeably down. Given the absence of China today (who are usually buyers on dips) there was little in the way of support for gold. The metal opened at $1279 and was under immediate pressure from SE Asian traders pushing the price down a few dollars towards the Friday lows. This level was eventually breached and the selling volume increased, pushing the price down to a fresh cycle low $1274.50. The metal failed to recover from these levels trading fairly flat into the afternoon either side of $1275 on moderate volumes. Technically the next support zone for gold sits at $1272.40 (100 dma) and then $1268.10 (61.8% retracement of the July-September rally), while resistance resides at $1280-82 (50% retracement of the July-Sep rally). On the data calendar today look out for a host of European manufacturing PMI's, Euro Zone employment data and U.S manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing and construction spending.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 26 Sep 2017

MACRO: News out of Japan during late Asian trade on Monday, with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announcing he plans to dissolve parliament on Thursday and send the country to the polls next month. In an opportunistic play, Mr Abe has called the election following a weekend survey by the Nikkei newspaper showing his Liberal Democratic Party would get 44 per cent of the vote relative to 8 per cent for the opposition Democratic Party. North Korea ratcheted up the rhetoric between themselves and the U.S. on Monday, accusing President Trump of declaring war on the hermit state. Speaking in New York, North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho told reporters, "Since the United States declared war on our country, we will have every right to make countermeasures, including the right to shoot down United States strategic bombers even when they are not inside the airspace border of our country." In response, the Pentagon said it would be providing President Trump with "options", should the rouge state continue with their provocative actions. The Chicago Fed's national activity index slipped into negative territory during August, falling to -0.31 (exp: -0.25) to follow an upwardly revised +0.03 (prev: -0.01) during July. Factory output and consumer spending were the main drags on the headline figure, while employment-related indicators held within positive territory. The less volatile three-month moving average inched lower to -0.04 in August from a flat read in July. Meanwhile the Dallas Fed reported manufacturing activity across Texas pushed higher during September, as the general business activity index increased to 21.3 (exp: 11.5) from 17.0. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, slipped to 19.5 from 20.3 previously, new orders rose to 18.6 from 14.3 previously and the index of future business activity jumped to 34.5 from 29.2 in August. Equity markets in the U.S. eased overnight, seeing tech-led weakness as Apple shares declined following reports the company had requested parts suppliers in Taiwan to withhold parts of shipments. The S&P 500 saw weakness across technology (-1.42%) offset gains to energy (+1.47%) and utilities (+0.85%) as the bourse closed -0.22% lower at 2,496.66 points, while the DJIA shed -0.24% to 22,296.09 points and the Nasdaq Composite sunk -0.88% to 6,370.593. U.S. treasuries pushed higher on Monday as yields softened to follow the lead of European counterparts. The ten-year shaved off around 4bps to 2.220%, while the two-year eased 1.4bps to 1.425%. European equities ended generally higher on Monday, with investor's still considering the ramifications of the weekend German elections. The Stoxx Europe ended trade +0.18% higher, while the German Dax eked out a modest +0.02% return. In the U.K. the FTSE 100 pulled back -0.13% as a stronger pound and declines to financial and mining shares weighed upon the bourse.

PRECIOUS: The geopolitical risk premium returned to bullion on Monday following comments from North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho, accusing the U.S. of declaring war on the hermit state. After threatening a consolidated break underneath USD $1,290 throughout Monday's session, the yellow metal ripped higher once Mr Ri commented that North Korea has the right to shoot down United States airplanes, even if they are not within North Korean airspace. The headlines had gold back above USD $1,300 for the first time since last weeks FOMC meeting, as the greenback reversed course against the Yen to see the pair back below 112.00. Gold vols reacted to the overnight price action, edging higher as 1m pushed to 11.5 (traded 10's not long ago) and 12m above 13. Gold held relatively firm during Asian hours on Tuesday following the New York price action, seeing moderate interest hold bullion around USD $1,310, with a brief push above the overnight high late in afternoon trade. The recent sustained move below USD $1,300 is likely to have removed some of the weak long positioning in the market, with this evidenced by the latest COTR data. Although tensions on the Korean peninsula have escalated over the past 24 hours, it remains to be seen whether the geopolitical risk premium built into gold will be sustainable over the medium-long term, rather than once again being a short term energy hit. It is worth noting that there is decent interest tomorrow at USD $1,300 October Comex expiry, therefore we are likely to see bullion pegged around this level. Near-term resistance for the yellow metal sits toward the USD $1,317 - $1,320 pre-FOMC high, while initial support sits around USD $1,300 and below this USD $,1288.50. Data releases today include German import prices, U.S. new home sales, conference board consumer confidence and the Richmond fed manufacturing index.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Wed 20 Sep 2017

MACRO: A powerful magnitude 7.1 earthquake has collapsed buildings in Mexico City and reportedly killed over 145 people across central Mexico. The Earthquakes epicenter was just 60 miles south of the capital in Chiautla de Tapia and struck on the anniversary of the devastating 1985 earthquake. U.S. President Donald Trump addressed the U.N. General Assembly on Tuesday, threatening to "totally destroy" North Korea if the hermit state attacks the U.S. or its allies, however adding further that "hopefully this will not be necessary." In a wideranging 40 minute speech in New York, President Trump identified rouge regimes as the "scourge of our planet today", while also taking aim at the "reckless regime" and "corrupt dictatorship" of Iran. In reference to Iran and the nuclear deal signed under the Obama administration, Mr Trump said "We cannot let a murderous regime continue these destabilising activities while building dangerous missiles and we cannot abide by an agreement if it provides cover for the eventual construction of a nuclear program," Housing starts in the U.S. declined for the second consecutive month during August, easing -0.8% MoM (exp: +1.7%) to follow an upwardly revised -2.2% (prev: -4.8%). Persistent weakness within the often volatile multi-family home segment weighed upon the headline figure to offset a rebound within the single-family home segment. Building permits meanwhile surged +5.7% MoM (exp: -0.8%) to a seven month high during August, however permits for single family homes (the largest share of the housing market) declined. Import prices in the U.S. increased by +0.6% MoM during August (exp: +0.4%) amid increases to the cost of petroleum products, marking the largest increase in seven months. On an annualised basis prices jumped +2.1% YoY (exp: +2.2%) from +1.2% previously. Another session and another record, as all three of the major U.S. equity bourse's booked fresh record high closing levels on Tuesday. The DJIA added +0.18% to 22,370.80 points, extending its winning streak to eight consecutive sessions. Gains across financials (+0.80%) and utilities (+0.76%) saw the S&P 500 +0.11% higher to its 36th record closing high this year, while the Nasdaq Composite tacked on +0.10% to 6,461.323 points for the 49th record close this year. Markets in Europe edged higher on Tuesday, swinging between gains and losses as investor's traded cautiously heading into the two-day FOMC meeting. The Stoxx Europe 600 ended trade with a modest +0.4% gain, while the German Dax added just +0.02% as ZEW survey results, expectations and current situation, both beat forecasts. In the U.K. a softer pound and gains to supermarkets saw the FTSE 100 end the session +0.30% higher.

PRECIOUS: After once again seeing solid underlying interest above USD $1,300 on Tuesday, bullion pushed modestly higher during Asian trade today as participants positioned (or un-positioned) themselves into the upcoming FOMC announcement. A softer USD during late New York trade saw gold bounce off the recent USD $1,305 - $1,310 support level, closing toward the session high print to de-couple somewhat from rising UST yields following President Trump's tough rhetoric toward North Korea at the U.S. General Assembly. Interest around USD $1,310 throughout Wednesday's Asian session saw the figure act as a support level, withstanding early session offers to once again push higher following the CNY fix. We once again saw volatile USD/CNH price action today, with the pair falling from 6.5840 pre fix to a low around 6.5667 during Shanghai's pre-lunch session. Decent physical interest out of the far East kept the yellow metal buoyant post-fix, while early European USD offers weighed upon the greenback to see bullion push toward USD $1,315 and test outside of the recent resistance. Expectations are that bullion will hold the recent USD $1,305 - $1,315 range leading into today's FOMC announcement, with the broader market searching for details regarding the Fed's balance sheet normalisation in addition to the timing of interest rate increases (December still sitting around 55%). The key for the yellow metal is still the USD $1,300 support level and should Janet Yellen stick to the expected script today we should see the figure hold with underlying geopolitical risks remaining. After once again surviving a test of the USD $17.10 support in New York on Tuesday, silver pushed off the 200 DMA late in trade and continued its upward trajectory during Asian hours today. The key for the grey metal will be holding broad support between the USD $17 pivot point and USD $17.10 into tonight's FOMC announcement, while top-side targets extend to USD $17.50. Platinum continues to scramble for bids after testing the 100 DMA at USD $949 on Tuesday, while palladium has seen large liquidation to be -9% lower from the USD $999 high only two weeks ago, as weak longs head for the exits. All eyes are undoubtedly on today's FOMC announcement and associated commentary, while in the lead up we see U.K. retail sales and U.S. existing home sales,

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Friday 29 Sep 2017

MACRO: The US economy grew at an annualised rate of 3.1% in the second quarter of 2017, the highest in 2 years. The estimate replaces the 3% figure previously advised, and is based on revised data from the Commerce Department. The increase in consumer spending remained at 3.3% however business investment rose to 7% from 6.2%. The US remains on track to meet the Fed's growth target of 2% in 2017, although the recent hurricanes that lashed parts of the US are expected to have some impact on 3rd quarter numbers. Initial jobless claims rose by 12k to 272k in the week ending September 23, continuing jobless claims fell by 45k to 1.93M. US equities were higher as optimism arising from the Trump administration's proposed tax reform drives demand. The Dow added 40.49 points, or 0.18%, to 22,381.20; the S&P 500 rose 3.02 points, or 0.12% to 2,510.06, and the Nasdaq remained unchanged at 6,453.451. There were wins for materials (+0.71%) and REITs (0.61%), while industrials (-0.09%) led the laggards. European shares were higher, the EuroSTOXX advanced 0.74 points, or 0.19%, to 386.36, the German DAX put on 47.2 points, or 0.37%, to 12,704.65, and the London FTSE 100 ticked up 9.31 points, or 0.13%, to 7,322.82. In currencies, the US dollar index lost 0.24% to 93.133, the EUR traded up to 1.1799, while USD/JPY traded down to 112.27. US treasury yields were lower, the 2 year yield eased 1.99 bps to 1.4508% and the 10 year yield fell 0.35 bps to 2.3068%. In commodities news, oil markets were lower, Brent sold 0.41% to $57.66 while WTI declined 1.07% to $51.58. Base metals were mostly higher, with nickel (+1.95%) posting the biggest gain. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei sits at -0.08%, the Shanghai composite is at +0.25%, the Hang Seng at +0.33%, and the ASX S&P 200 at +0.29%. Tonight we have personal income, consumer spending, core inflation, Chicago PMI, and consumer sentiment out of the US: inflation data out of the Eurozone; and unemployment numbers out of Germany.

PRECIOUS: A more positive, if relatively quiet session for the precious overnight. Gold picked up a couple of dollars on the Asia open and traded around $1283-84 during the early hours. The SGE premium was at $9-10 over loco London however flows out of China were limited. As USD/JPY ticked up to trade above 113 the market slipped through the $1280 level to trade at a six week low of $1277. London were buyers down here prompted a rebound to $1285 by the time NY came in. The greenback continued to give back it's early gains through the NY session, and the yellow metal was able to grind it's way to the days high of $1288 in fairly subdued trade. Silver mounted a modest rally, after dipping to a low of $16.70 during Asian hours, the grey metal rebounded to the high of $16.87 and a close just below. Palladium experienced choppy trade through the NY session but is still trading at a premium to platinum. The Philadelphia gold and silver index added 1.11%. The SPDR Gold Trust holdings were unchanged at 864.64 metric tonnes. Quiet trade expected today ahead of China's extended holiday. Gold is looking a little softer, printing a low of $1284.00, with the SGE premium lower at $7-8. The yellow metal is at $1284.90 as I write. Silver drifting lower also, the grey metal is sitting at $16.81 as I write. Palladium has garnered the most support today, firming $5 to sit currently around the highs at $936.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Monday 25 Sep 2017

MACRO: Weekend German elections have seen Chancellor Angela Merkel narrowly hold onto power for a fourth term, however gains to the far right movement will see her conservatives forced to form a coalition, as support for Merkel's conservative bloc slumped to the lowest level since 1949. The anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) were the major surprise, winning 13.8% of the vote and entering parliament for the first time. U.S. Republican's are once again facing an uphill battle to repeal and replace Obamacare, with John McCain of Arizona and Rand Paul of Tennessee on the record as having said they would vote against the Graham-Cassidy bill and Susan Collins of Maine announcing on Sunday that she has 'a number of serious reservations'. With 48 Democrat's in opposition, it would only take three Republican defections to defeat the bill. IHS Markit reported U.S. services activity remained robust during September, however the manufacturing sector held a subdued pace. Markit's services PMI print eased only marginally from August's 21-month high, printing 55.1 (exp: 55.8), while the manufacturing PMI inched higher to 53.0 (exp: 53.0) from 52.8 previously, as new orders expanded at one of the slowest rates recorded over the past 12-months and output rates were unchanged from August's 14-month low. Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, Chris Williamson noted with the release; "Although the September surveys indicated a moderation in growth of business activity, the overall rate of expansion remained robust." Equity markets in the U.S. closed narrowly mixed on Friday, recovering from early session weakness as investor's set aside concerns over North Korea and healthcare stocks rallied following news Senator John McCain wouldn't support the latest Republican healthcare bill. The S&P 500 saw six of eleven main sectors end higher as the bourse edged to a +0.06% gain at 2,502.22 points, while the DJIA slipped just -0.04% lower to 22,349.59 points. On a weekly basis the S&P 500 added close to +0.1% and the DJIA gained +0.4%. The greenback experienced broad based weakness on Friday, however was able to pare losses during New York hours as geopolitical concerns abated somewhat. The DXY index closed just -0.01% lower after reversing declines against the yen, closing back above 112.00 following a 111.65 low print in Asia. Upbeat Markit PMI data out of France, Germany and the Eurozone helped to support regional bourse's on Friday, however gains were tempered somewhat in Germany leading into the weekend elections. The Stoxx Europe 600 ended trade with a modest +0.09% gain as a stronger euro restricted further wins, while the German Dax pulled back -0.06% as investor's traded cautiously after poll results indicated the German far right movement would see strong support on the weekend. In the U.K. the FTSE 100 outperformed to end +0.64% higher, seeing strength from an ailing pound following a speech from Theresa May in Florence regarding Brexit negotiations.

PRECIOUS: A stronger dollar on Monday wrestled away any risk premium that gold had accumulated on the back of recent posturing by Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un, with large early session volumes seeing bullion toward Friday's New York low. Weekend sanctions imposed by China on North Korea and election results out of Germany likely contributed to the early risk tone, as a sharp stop loss run on the previous session low opened up gold to a brief test below USD $1,290. The metal saw interest return once China opened for business, with bullion still holding a USD $7 premium relative to loco London gold, while a tempering of early dollar strength during afternoon trade kept price action buoyant above USD $1,290. The key for gold over the short-term will be holding support around USD $1,288.50, a level which was tested on multiple occasions last week. Should bullion break further away from USD $1,300 we will be looking to USD $1,280 - USD $1,284 (55 DMA) as the next level of support, while a move below this could open up the 200 DMA at USD $1,246.50. CFTC positioning remains stretched, however has pulled back as a result of long liquidation during the week to September 19, while silver positioning has softened, predominately a result of increased shorts. Silver traded in a relatively resilient fashion during Asian trade today, withstanding an initial move below USD $17 to see underlying support around USD $16.90 restrict further declines. Both platinum and palladium edged higher during Asian trade today, with the latter building upon Friday's +0.8% gain. Data releases today include German IFO survey results, Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 19 Sep 2017

MACRO: The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported sentiment among U.S. builders declined by more than expected during September. Higher prices for materials and labor shortages following recent weather events weighed upon sentiment as the NAHB index dipped to 64 (exp: 67) from 67 previously. Regionally, confidence was highest in the West and Northeast, while the Midwest fell to 59 from 65 to mark the lowest level since November and confidence in the South dropped to 65 from 69. Concerns over a flare up on the Korean Peninsula continue to abate, with U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson noting during an interview with CBS that the U.S. seeks a "peaceful solution" and want to "bring North Korea to the table for constructive, productive dialogue." U.S. equities continued where they left off last week, pushing higher on Monday to see the DJIA and S&P 500 end at fresh record closing levels. The DJIA closed +0.28% higher at a fresh record of 22,331.35 points, the bourse's seventh consecutive session gain and fifth consecutive record close. Strong gains to financials (+1.02%) and technology (+0.96%) helped propel the S&P 500 +0.15% higher to a fresh record close 2,053.87 points, while the Nasdaq Composite added +0.10% to end just shy of a record. Oil futures endured whippy trade on Monday, however ended with modest gains after recovering from declines driven by an EIA report showing an expected increase in U.S. output of 79,000 barrel per day in October. WTI was unable to consolidate a move above USD $50 per barrel and closed +0.2% higher, at USD $49.90 per barrel, while Brent crude ended generally flat. The greenback ended trade higher on Monday, hitting a near two month high against the yen as participants turn focus to the upcoming FOMC meeting. The DXY index posted a +0.2% gain to 92.05, seeing further support from a de-escalation in tensions on the Korean peninsula following U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson's comments. Equities in the U.K. inched higher on Monday, broadly supported by a softening pound, while BAE Systems jumped over +3% following news that the British and Qatari Governments had signed an agreement for the potential sale of 24 Eurofigher Typhoon combat jets. The FTSE 100 ended trade +0.52% higher, the Stoxx Europe 600 tacked on +0.33% as Eurozone inflation data hit expectations and the German Dax posted a +0.32% to shake off a Bundesbank report showing some economic indicators were reportedly more subdued than expected.

PRECIOUS: Gold traded under pressure once again on Monday, falling toward USD $1,300 to book its fifth loss in six sessions as a return to risk weighed upon safe haven assets. Bullion ended the session at the lowest level in nearly three weeks as the greenback turned bid, geopolitical tensions eased and UST yields pushed higher. We saw thick price action around USD $1,306 - $1,308 as a mixture of stops and TP orders were filled, likely removing some of the short term players in addition to those shorts that have been instigated over the past week. Bullion traded relatively range-bound during Asian trade today, however had to survive early session weakness after opening initially offered during Chinese trade following a leg lower to both CNY and CNH after the USD/CNY fix. USD/CNH extended to a 6.5960 high after trading around 6.5700 pre-fix, and with it saw gold pull back from a move toward USD $1,310. Interest toward the overnight low print kept bullion buoyant during afternoon pricing, however offers around USD $1,310 kept a lid on top-side moves. Gold continues to trend lower into Wednesday's FOMC meeting, however we are seeing interest toward USD $1,300 restrict further down-side moves (still an underlying geopolitical bid) and expectations are this will continue. Should initial support around USD $1,300 be broken, we look to USD $1,293 (Aug breakout point) and below this USD $1,285 (50 DMA). Restrictive price action toward USD $1,310 - $1,315 and above this USD $1,320 are likely to keep downwards pressure on the metal into the FOMC meeting. Silver extended recent weakness during New York hours on Monday, sliding through USD $17.50 to a USD $17.065 session low. The grey metal saw interest underneath USD $17.20 (around the 200 DMA) throughout Asian trade today to restrict a further test of Monday's low print, however it will need to hold the key USD $17 level into Wednesday's FOMC meeting, otherwise we are likely to see USD $16.50 - $16.75. Data releases today include German and Eurozone ZEW survey results, U.S. housing starts, the U.S. current account balance and U.S. import prices.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.