DAILY REPORT : Monday 16 Apr 2018

MACRO: The United States, in cooperation with Britain and France, launched missile strikes against Syria on Friday evening. The strikes targeted Syrian chemical weapons facilities and were a direct response to a chemical attack carried out in the country earlier in the week. The assault has heightened tensions between and the US and both Russia and Iran, who support Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. The US stock markets, which had closed before the air strikes were reported, finished lower on Friday despite some positive first quarter earnings reports. The Dow lost 122.91 points, or 0.50%, to 24,360.14, the S&P 500 fell 7.69 points, or 0.29% to 2,656.30, while the Nasdaq sold off 33.598 points, or 0.47%, to 7,106.650. There were wins for energy (+1.09%) and utilities (+0.69%) while financials (-1.55%) and consumer discretionary (-0.57%) led the laggards. European equities were higher, the EuroSTOXX added 0.38 points, or 0.10%, to 379.20, the German DAX advanced 27.39 points, or 0.22%, to 12,442.40, and the London FTSE 100 rose 6.22 points, or 0.09%, to 7,264.56. In the currencies, the US dollar index added 0.05% to 89.80, the EUR was as low as 1.231, while USD/JPY traded up to 107.53. US treasury yields were mixed, the 2 year yield firmed 0.86 bps to 2.3566% and the 10 year yield eased 0.91 bps to 2.8267%. In commodities, oil prices were higher as Brent rose 0.78% to $72.58 and WTI gained 0.48% to $67.39. Base metals were mostly higher, with nickel (1.64%) leading the gains. In US economic data, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to 97.8 in April from a reading of 101.4 in March. The index of current economic conditions fell to 115 from 121.2 in March, while the expectations index fell to 86.8 from 88.8. The Labor Department reported that job openings declined to 6.05 million in February from 6.23 million in January. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei is at +0.21%, the Shanghai composite is at -1.34%, the Hang Seng at -1.51%, and the ASX S&P 200 is at +0.19%. Tonight we have retail sales, the Empire State index, the home builders index, and business inventories out of the US.

PRECIOUS: The precious mounted a rally after heavy losses in the previous session.Gold opened at $1335 in Asia and found an early bid after the previous session's sell-off. The market reached $1340 before a dip toward the opening level late in the day. London came in and bought the metal back above $1340, however a sweep lower saw gold trade down to $1333 late in the AM session. NY came in on the bid and sent the yellow metal up to $1345, this was followed by a slow grind up to the days high of $1346 late in the session. Silver followed a similar trajectory, with a rally in NY hours pushing the grey metal to equal the previous session high at $16.68. Palladium capped off an impressive week by surging to an April high $987, the metal put on over 9% for the week. The Philadelphia gold and silver index added 1.59%. The SPDR gold trust holdings were unchanged at 865.89 metric tonnes. In todays trading, news of the US air strike on Syria over the weekend have not had as big of an impact as we may have expected. Gold dipped to $1340 on the open before rebounding quickly to $1344. The high of $1348.10 was reached with USD/JPY coming off and the SGE premium around $8. The yellow metal is drifting lower as the afternoon progresses, it is sitting at $1343.80 as I write. Silver has been fairly range-bound today, again finding resistance at the 16.68 level. The grey metal is at $16.60 as I write. PGM's are flat. Gold should find some healthy support at the 55 DMA level at $1331 and the April low of $1321 below that. On the upside, expect resting orders around the $1350 level and at the 3 month high $1364 we saw last week.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

 

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 10 Apr 2018

MACRO: Equity markets in the U.S. pared gains late in trade on Monday, weighed lower on reports that the Federal Bureau of Investigation had raided the office of Donald Trump’s personal lawyer, Michael Cohen. After trading over +1% higher mid-session, the DJIA sharply declined into the close to add just +0.19% to 23,979.10 points, while gains to six of eleven sectors of the S&P 500 led by healthcare (+0.93%), saw the bourse to a +0.33% return at 2,613.16 points. The greenback traded softer on Monday to follow equity markets lower late in trade, seeing the DXY index off -0.36% as USD/JPY dropped below 107.00. Oil futures started the week on a positive note, gaining ground on the back of a relief rally as trade-war concerns eased somewhat. WTI tacked on around +2.2% to end at USD $63.40 per barrel, while Brent crude jumped +2.4% to USD $68.65 per barrel. Markets in Europe pushed higher on Monday as market participants benefitted from a cooling of trade tension between the U.S. and China, however Russian stocks slumped following fresh U.S. sanctions. The Stoxx Europe 600 inched +0.13% higher to 375.30 points, the German DAX added +0.17% to 12,261.75 points, while in the U.K. the FTSE 100 gained +0.15% to 7,194.75 points.

PRECIOUS: Gold returned the majority of the overnight premium during Asian trade today, wiping away gains made in New York to test back toward USD $1,330. With a lack of trade-war headlines on Monday, it took reports of an FBI raid on Trump's personal lawyer's office to dampen the dollar's spirits and push equities sharply lower. Bullion benefitted from the news to break through recent resistance around USD $1,335, testing to a USD $1,337.05 session high as USD/JPY sunk underneath 107.00. The metal remained capped underneath USD $1,340 (futures) into the close, however was able to book a +0.2% gain on the session. The major movers overnight were the white metal's, predominately palladium (+2.8%) following the fresh round of U.S. sanctions on Russia.

Asian price direction on Tuesday was largely dominated by Chinese President Xi Jinping's speech at the Boao forum on China's Hainan island, whereby the Chinese leader spoke with a conciliatory tone and sought to diffuse trade tensions. Mr Xi's comments provided respite for the greenback, pushing around +0.4% higher against the yen, while U.S. equity futures moved higher to sit around +1.3%. The move to a risk-on tone took bullion lower in early Chinese trade, declining from a session high around USD $1,338 to USD $1,333, before weakness extended to a session low of USD $1,331.10. Near-term pricing is likely to see bullion pull back as trade-war tensions subside following todays comments in Boao, with initial support for the metal sitting around USD $1,330 (50 DMA), while below this the recent support at USD $1,320 will act to restrict further declines. Data releases today include Industrial production out of France and Italy, U.S. small business optimism and U.S. PPI.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

 

DAILY REPORT : Wed 4 Apr 2018

MARKETS/MACRO: U.S equities closed higher Tuesday, following a volatile session that saw major indices fluctuate widely as investors digested a sharp retreat a day earlier and gauged the likelihood of both trade risk and further weakness in tech names. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained +389.17 points, or +1.65%, to 24,033.36, the S&P500 bounced back +32.57 points, or +1.26%, to 2,614.45 and the NASDAQ Composite added +71.16 points, or +1.04%, to 6,941.282. The best performing sector was Energy (+2.14%), while REITs struggled but still managed to close in positive territory (+0.31%). European stocks finished lower, dogged by the soggy technology sector and ongoing concerns about a full-blown trade-war with China firing back at the U.S this week. The EuroFirst 300 index slumped -6.5 points, or -0.45% to 1,445.81 and the EuroStoxx 600 slid -1.80 points, or -0.49% to 369.07. Regionally the FTSE100 shed -0.37%, the DAX lost -0.78% and CAC40 dipped -0.29%. Crude oil ended the day higher (WTI +$0.56 , +0.89% to $63.57) after the American Petroleum Institute reported a surprise draw of 3.28 million barrels of United States crude oil inventories in the week ended March 30. Analysts had anticipated a modest build in crude oil inventories of +246k barrels. In FX, JPY was the worst preforming currency in G10 as macro risks seem to have dissipated post yesterday’s large equity sell off. Positioning still suggests that there’s a decent amount of JPY longs, though Japan’s inflation figures on Friday did little to substantiate Kuroda’s comments that there could be a BoJ exit anytime soon and offers keep USDJPY rallies well capped. The rates market saw yields grind higher throughout the day as a result of the higher equities and some decent corporate supply. Goldman Sachs analysts note that positioning is now much cleaner and with no clear catalyst to propel the next leg of the sell-off, shorts have been reduced dramatically, particularly in the front-end. The U.S 2y yield closed up 3.23 bps at 2.278% and the 10y yield accelerated +4.5 bps to 2.775%.

The trade war rhetoric has heated up again with China officially notifying the World Trade Organisation it is imposing $611.5 million worth of retaliatory tariffs on $2.75 billion worth of U.S. imports - including pork, nuts and ethanol. The move was in response to U.S. duties on aluminium and steel, a WTO document showed. The document, dated last Thursday but posted only after the Easter public holidays, came after China said late on Sunday it has increased tariffs by up to 25 percent on 128 U.S. products, escalating the dispute between the world’s two largest economies. China has fulfilled its legal duty to notify the WTO and other member states of its retaliatory measures.

On the data front it was a fairly quiet day yesterday. Euro-zone manufacturing PMI was finalised at 56.6 in March, unrevised, yet down from February’s final reading of 58.6. It’s also the biggest fall in the series since mid 2011. Markit noted a broad slowdown across “all nations”, with increased signs of “supply chain constraints”. The German manufacturing sector sank for a third month running, its Markit PMI reading hitting 58.2, its lowest level since July 2017 and lower than last week’s flash estimate of 58.4. The survey reported that growing demand for input materials was increasing the prices of inputs, including of raw materials like steel, and placing suppliers under pressure to keep up. German retail sales however improved YoY, up +1.3% in Feb.

PRECIOUS: Gold struggled to hold on to Monday's gains as a steadier risk sentiment descended on global markets, in particular it was a stronger USD and U.S equity market that took the wind out of gold's sails. Gold opened the session at $1341.50 in Asia yesterday with flows skewed to the sell-side in early trade. Once Shanghai opened the flows seen on the offer only increased, with the SGE premium relaxing towards $6-7 over the spot price. Spot dipped below $1340 during the Asian hours although didn't really accelerate too much through there, with some steady buying on Comex absorbing much of the Asian supply. There was a brief spike right around the time European traders took the books, although there were a number of investors happy to book profits above $1340 and we quickly sank back below that level. Again on the NY open there was a spike brief spike back to $1342 - a third time - before the USD and equity market began to exhibit some strength. This saw the metal lose ground fairly rapidly and trade as low as $1329.15. Some intra-day profit taking then pushed us back into the mid $1330's, where we remained for the rest of the session, ultimately closing at $1332.50. We seem range-bound for now in gold with producer/spec selling still weighing up towards the range highs $1345-55, while concerns over a continuing trade war have kept the market buoyant on dips - expect good support between $1300-1315. Either way, at this juncture it appears it will take a significant trigger to break out of the current range. Silver had a spectacular fall from grace, touching a high $16.60 right after the NY open and then sharply tumbling to $16.39 and settling just off that. Platinum was very soft, off more than -1.0% while palladium was extremely volatile yet managed to close fairly flat, despite good auto sales out of the U.S.

It was a slow day in Asia today and the last day China will be in for the week, out Thursday and Friday for their Ching Ming Festival holiday. Gold opened at $1333 and tracked sideways for the majority of the morning leading into the SGE open. With the lower gold price the SGE premium had ticked up a little on the previous day to USD $7-8 over loco London. This drew out some light demand although in all honesty the volume was very muted, with Chinese investors appearing to have already done the majority of their pre-holiday business. Gold edged up a few dollars after China came in and continued up toward $1336.00 and has since gradually traded down to $1334. Silver and the PGM's have been similarly quiet. On the data front today Australian retail sales came in better than expected at +0.6% (+0.3% expected, +0.2% prior), while Chinese Caixin PMI services and composite came in lower than expected at 52.3 and 51.8 respectively. In other markets equities are currently mixed the Hang Seng is down -1.7%, Shanghai Composite -0.2%, while the Nikkei and ASX200 are modestly higher at present +0.15% each. The dollar remains flat against the G10 and crude is currently softer on the day, May WTI down -$0.28 (-0.45%) to $63.30.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Friday 13 Apr 2018

MARKETS/MACRO: U.S. stocks closed with solid gains on Thursday as investors looked past the latest headlines and tweets coming from the White House and turned their focus to earnings season, which kicks off today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced +293.6 points, or +1.21%, to 24,483.05, the S&P500 rallied +21.8 points, or +0.83%, to 2,663.99 and the NASDAQ Composite added +71.221 points, or +1.01%, to 7,140.248. The best performing sector on the day was Financials (+1.82%), while Utilities brought up the rear (-1.28%). In Europe, stocks closed higher as the likelihood of military conflict in Syria eased. The EuroFirst 300 Index rose +9.94 points, or +0.67% to 1,485.28 and the EuroStoxx 600 inclined +2.64 points, or +0.70% to 378.82 points. Regionally the FTSE100 was fairly flat +0.02%, DAX rose +0.98% and the CAC40 climbed +0.59%. Price action in the G10 block was rather muted over the past 24 hours, although we did see the Euro come off quite heavily for a period last night on the back of fresh ECB minutes which the market took through a slightly more dovish lens. GBP was the out-performer, EURGBP ~-70bps lower on the day as U.K rates come under pressure. Base metals prices were generally weaker, as a stronger USD weighed on investor appetite. Profit taking was also prevalent after the strong gains chalked up earlier this week. Zinc led the sector lower, with prices falling over -3.3% on fears of hidden stockpiles hitting the market and speculation swirled that China’s State Reserve Bureau was planning to release inventory. Inventories on the LME are already up 10% this year, including a sudden inflow of 80kt in early March. Aluminium was the only metal in the complex to push higher, as panic buying from traders continued. The recent surge in crude oil prices eased as U.S President Trump suggested an attack on Syria wasn’t a foregone conclusion, however, traders remained on edge with Trump still discussing the U.S response with his advisors and other international allies. May WTI pushed higher on the day up +$0.34 or +0.51% to $67.16 a barrel. U.S treasuries continued to unwind with 2y yields up +4.1 bps to 2.348% and 10y yields rallying +5.5 bps to 2.836%.

On the data front, U.S import prices remained unchanged in March, despite markets expecting a small rise. On an annual basis, import prices were up +3.6%, supported largely by USD weakness over the past year (one exception being petrol prices, which were up 19% YoY). U.S initial jobless claims fell by -9k to 233k in the week ended April 7, slightly higher than a BBG forecast of 230k. Continuing claims increased by +53k to 1.87 million (BBG expectation 1.84 million). Layoffs are near a 45-year low and show no sign of rising. Companies increasingly complain about a shortage of skilled labour with the unemployment rate at a 17-year low of 4.1%, making it harder for them to fill a record number of job openings. Across the pond, Euro area industrial production fell -0.8% MoM in February following a -0.6% MoM fall in January - suggesting momentum in the Euro-zone may have peaked. The drop was led by a -3.6% fall in capital goods output (a volatile component) and a -1.6% drop in durable consumer goods. The picture across the euro area was uneven, with output falls in Germany and Italy and production increases in France, the Netherlands and Spain. Elsewhere, Minutes of the European Central Bank’s meeting suggest the central bank will move only gradually to phase out its EUR $30 billion a month bond-buying program and start raising interest rates.

PRECIOUS: Gold continued to track lower overnight trading down towards $1334 after trading at $1365 only 24 hours earlier (-2.3%). It marks the fourth attempt now that the yellow metal has pushed through into/through the $1355-60 area and subsequently sold off some $25-30 shortly after. It is obviously very heavy going above those levels with heavy spec profit taking as well as producer supply diligently capping the rallies. Yesterday gold opened in Asia at $1353 and felt a little heavy from the get-go. The metal quietly tracked lower over the first few hours of trade and picked up a little more downward momentum later in the day trading through $1350. The SGE premium was noticeably lower by around $2 or so at $5-6 over spot, which prompted Chinese selling. There was a brief pop back to the opening levels during London, but that was quickly sold into. By the time NY stepped in we were trading around $1345 and it was mainly specs and producers driving the sell-off, which remained constant throughout the rest of the session. The generally stronger USD, firmer equities and lower treasuries also weighed on metals. Palladium which has been the performing metal in the precious space over the course of this week, was exceptionally volatile overnight, selling off in dramatic fashion during the London session to a low of $948.50 only to bounce back just as sharply later in NY to hit $966 and close the day marginally higher. Investors continue to be concerned about sanctions on Russia that would result in supply side disruptions for Pd.

Gold commenced the days trade just above the o/n lows ($1335) and there was initially some opportunistic demand, with specs punting on Asian names buying when they stepped in. The metal pushed as high as $1338.50 prior to the SGE open and had a further leg up when it did edging up through $1340. The SGE premium had increased about $1 or so from where we were yesterday and demand was modest but persistent throughout the am session. Spot gold pushed through $1340 and has held in well since with some light two-way trade going through COMEX. Silver has clawed above $16.50 and is holding onto the 50 handle and palladium is trading north of yesterday's close and above $970, closing in on the 200 dma which sits at $976.50. In other markets, equities are mixed at present the Nikkei up +0.50% and ASX200 +0.35%, while the Hang Seng is down -0.10% and Shanghai Composite -0.40%. Crude is slightly softer WTI -$0.15 (-0.2%) to $67.02 and the USD is mixed narrowly mixed vs the G10. Ahead today on the Economic Calerndar look out for German CPI, U.S Jolts report and University of Michigan Sentiment index.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Monday 9 Apr 2018

MACRO: Jobs data out of the U.S. on Friday showed nonfarm payrolls increased just 103,000 during March (exp: 185,000) to follow an upwardly revised February print of 326,000 (prev: 313,000). The March print was the lowest monthly figure in six months, while January saw a downwards revision from 239,000 to 176,00. The unemployment rate held at 4.1% (exp: 4.0%) and the broader 'U-6' measure of unemployment and underemployment, which includes those who have stopped looking and those in part-time jobs who want full-time positions eased to 8.0% from 8.2% previously. Average hourly earnings printed in-line with estimates, increasing +0.3% MoM and +2.7% YoY. Equities in the U.S. ended lower on Friday following the soft jobs data and concerns over China – U.S. trade relations. The DJIA came under early pressure on reports that President Trump was considering a further USD $100 million of tariffs on Chinese goods, opening sharply lower and continuing to trade under pressure for the remainder for the session to end down -2.34% at 23,932.76 points. The S&P 500 didn’t fare much better, posting a -2.19% decline to 2,604.47 points as industrials (-2.73%) and technology (-2.53%) led all of the bourse’s components into negative territory. On a weekly basis the DJIA pulled back -0.7% and the S&P 500 sunk -1.4%. The greenback turned lower on Friday on the back of the weaker U.S. Jobs data, seeing the DXY index slide -0.4% after a notable decline against the yen. The pair touched a 107.49 high on Thursday to mark a near 6-week high, however fell underneath 107.00 on Friday to book a -0.45% fall. Treasury yields declined on Friday as prices pushed higher, seeing the 10-year 5.1bps lower to 2.779% and the two-year 3.2bps lower to 2.274%.

PRECIOUS: Gold ripped higher on Friday following the softer than expected U.S. jobs data, benefitting from a declining greenback to reverse recent weakness and end with a +0.4% gain. Asian interest in thin trade took the metal initially back above USD $1,330, however with China on leave bullion struggled to find bids to underpin the price action and pulled back from the figure. Gains to the dollar and position lightening leading into the U.S. jobs print saw bullion briefly underneath USD $1,320, however further 'trade war' related headlines sent the metal around USD $7 higher leading into the New York open. A softer than expected headline jobs figure saw a strong risk-off tone throughout the market, as equities turned sharply offered and investors fled into treasuries and the precious complex. Gold traded to a USD $1,335.25 session high before easing modestly into the close. Vols firmed following the price action to see 1m around 10.2, while ETF's registered inflows of approximately 250,000 ounces.

Asian interest on Monday saw a modest down-side skew, however bullion was generally held within a tight range and saw the USD $1,330 support respected. China's return provided a level of underlying support for the metal to reverse early session declines after gold eased around USD $4 to USD $1,330 leading into the Shanghai open. The on-shore premium in the far East held around USD $8 - $9, to see a mild bid across the spot market, however price action would be best described as supportive rather than pushing back toward opening levels. Expectations are that the recent range ($1,300 - $1,350) will to continue to be respected, with the metal highly sensitive to trade related headlines.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

 

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 3 Apr 2018

MACRO: U.S. equities fell sharply on Monday as markets returned from the Easter long weekend, seeing the S&P 500 close below its 200 DMA for the first time since June 2016. The bourse declined -2.23% to 2,581.88 points on the back of broad based weakness (all 11 components lower), led by a -2.48% fall to technology stocks as Amazon tumbled -5.21% following further criticism by President Trump via Twitter. The DJIA fell -1.90% to 23,644.19 points, with UnitedHealth Group Inc. the only component of the bourse’s 30 to close in positive territory. Heavy trade across technology stocks saw the Nasdaq collapse -2.74% to 6,870.119 points, taking the Arms Index, a volume weighted breadth measure, to a high of 2.238 (readings above 2.000 are viewed as having panic like characteristics) and the bourse down -0.5% for 2018. Markit’s U.S. manufacturing PMI (final) eased modestly during March from earlier estimates, however was an improvement on February’s 53.3 and marked the highest final print since March 2015. The headline figure saw support from continued strength across output and new orders, while input prices accelerated at the fastest pace since November 2012. The ISM measure of U.S. manufacturing activity eased during March, printing 59.3 (exp: 59.6) to follow a 60.8 read in February. The employment sub-index fell 2.4 points to weigh upon the headline figure, while production and new orders also pulled back. Construction spending in the U.S. inched just +0.1% higher in February (exp: +0.4%) from an unchanged read in January. The greenback endured whippy trade on Monday, however ended the session mostly unchanged as the DXY index ended +0.03% lower. The dollar made back ground against the Euro, however fell underneath 106.00 against the Yen.

PRECIOUS: The sell-off to U.S. equities buoyed bullion on Monday, seeing gold through USD $1,340 and end the session +1.2% higher. The yellow metal saw interest in early Asian trade to reclaim USD $1,330, as Chinese demand saw the onshore premium jump to around USD $10 over London gold to fuel interest in spot. A softer greenback during European hours provided a level of underlying support to the metal, while the 'trade war' headlines in the U.S. mitigated a dollar reversal and saw gold to a USD $1,344.85 session high print. ETF's saw modest inflows on Monday of around 190,000 ounces, while vols remain firm as 1m pushes toward 11.0. Modest gains to USD/China in early Shanghai pricing saw bullion ease below USD $1,340 during Asian hours on Tuesday, while the upcoming two-day SGE closure likely saw some participants square short positions to further weigh upon the spot market. Bullion eased to a USD $1337.30 low to reverse pre-Chinese demand, however resting interest underneath USD $1,340 saw the metal hold a relatively tight range throughout the session, once again printing back above USD $1,340 as Europe filtered in. Interest around USD $1,335 will provide the first level of support for the metal and should see resting bids to restrict any tests lower toward the 50 DMA of USD $1,331.50. Top-side targets for the metal extend through USD $1,345 to the key USD $1,350 level. After breaking above USD $16.50 during early U.S. hours on Monday, silver eased marginally during Asian trade today following an early session test of the 50 DMA at USD $16.62. Monday's New York high print of USD $16.66 comes at the 100 DMA, while the metal needs to break through the 200 DMA of USD $16.78 to find some clean air and instill confidence into participants. Both platinum and palladium remain heavy, notably palladium which saw losses extend further today toward USD $930. Data today includes German retail sales and French, German, Eurozone and U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI prints.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 12 Apr 2018

MACRO: The FOMC minutes released overnight showed members now have greater confidence in reaching the 2% inflation target and affirmed plans to increase short-term interest rates gradually. The minutes also showed officials raised concerns over the implications of retaliatory trade actions on the U.S. economy, with particular focus on the agricultural industry. CPI in the U.S. declined -0.1% MoM during March (exp: 0.0%), the first negative result since May 2017. The soft headline figure was weighed down by gasoline prices as they fell -4.9% during March, while ‘core’ CPI, which excludes food and energy, added +0.2% MoM to be in-line with expectations. On an annualised basis CPI increased +2.4% YoY from +2.2% previously, while core CPI ticked higher to +2.1% YoY from +1.8% previously. Equity markets in the U.S tracked lower on Wednesday, under-pressure following a heightening of geopolitical tensions after a number of tweets from President Trump suggesting the U.S. was preparing for a military strike in Syria. The DJIA declined -0.9% to 24,189.45 points, while the S&P 500 dipped -0.55% to 2,642.19 points as telecoms (-1.49%) led nine of eleven sectors lower. The greenback ended trade modestly lower on Wednesday, however was able to pare declines late in trade to limit the fall of the DXY index to just -0.1%.

PRECIOUS: The heightened geopolitical tensions underpinned a leg higher to bullion on Wednesday, with large volumes registered through Comex as Gold ended over +1% higher. Comments regarding strikes on Syria from President Trump initiated the risk-off tone to send equities sharply lower and buoy bullion. Strength leading into the New York open took gold through USD $1,350, while further support on the back of the U.S. CPI print saw the metal through the figure to touch a session high of USD $1,365.45. Solid offers above USD $1,360 weighed upon the metal late in trade following the FOMC minutes release to restrict further gains and keeping the metal still within the recent range (Jan high was USD $1,366). Silver took out both the 100 DMA (USD $16.63) and the 200 DMA (16.79) on the way to a USD $16.88 session high, however pared gains late in trade to end +0.7% higher around USD $16.65.

Asian trade today saw reasonably tepid price action amid solid volumes, with early session offers seeing bullion test underneath USD $1,350, however interest around the figure restricted any further weakness. Expectations are that USD $1,350 will act as an initial pivot point for near-term pricing, however more importantly key down-side support around USD $1,335 - $1,340 should provide a base for a further test through the Jan high of USD $1,366. Silver's overnight move above the 200 DMA was an important print for the metal, however disappointedly was unable to close above the figure. The 100 DMA at USD $16.63 will form the next level of support and below this the 50 DMA around USD $16.50. With regards to the white metals, palladium was a major mover overnight as tensions with Russia increase, testing toward the 200 DMA at USD $975 to end +1.5% higher. Data today includes Eurozone industrial production, U.S. initial jobless claims and U.S. import prices.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Friday 6 Apr 2018

MACRO: US equities closed higher for the third consecutive session on Thursday ahead of tonight's non-farm payroll data release. The Dow rose 240.92 points, or 0.99%, to 24,505.22, the S&P 500 gained 18.15 points, or 0.69% to 2,662.84, while the Nasdaq added 34.444 points, or 049%, to 7,076.552. There were wins for materials (+1.87%), energy (1.81%) and consumer discretionary (+1.37%) in a nearly broad advance in stocks. European equities soared in what was the best one day rally in two years, the EuroSTOXX climbed 8.80 points, or 2.40%, to 376.13, the German DAX advanced 347.29 points, or 2.90%, to 12,305.19, and the London FTSE 100 surged 165.49 points, or 2.90%, to 7,199.50. In the currencies, the US dollar index rose 0.34% to 90.447, the EUR traded down to 1.2221 while USD/JPY was as high as 107.45. US treasury yields were higher, the 2 year yield firmed 1.02 bps to 2.3026% and the 10 year yield added 2.93 bps to 2.8320%. In commodities, oil prices were higher as Brent rallied 0.69% to $68.49 and WTI rose 0.57% to $63.73. Base metals were mostly higher, with copper (1.37%) leading the gains. In US economic data, the trade deficit rose 1.6% to a nearly 10 year high of $57.6 billion in February. Imports increased 1.7% to $262 billion while exports also rose 1.7%. Initial jobless claims rose by 24k to 242k in the week ending March 31. Continuing claims fell 64k to 1.81 million. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei is at +0.05%, the Shanghai composite is at -0.18%, the Hang Seng at +1.21%, and the ASX S&P 200 is at +0.10%. Tonight we have non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, hourly earnings, and consumer credit out of the US; plus retail PMI out the Eurozone and industrial production from Germany.

PRECIOUS: Fairly ordinary session for the precious in the absence of China and ahead of tonight's NFP numbers. Gold opened at $1332 and, after an early bump up toward $1335, drifted lower through the day. Volume was thin without the Chinese participants and the firming USD/JPY put pressure on the market. London were a little more bullish and bought the metal back up to $1330 during the morning session. Trading was choppy in early NY hours with the yellow metal printing the days low of $1322, a more subdued afternoon saw gold finish up at $1326. Silver faired better, the grey metal dipped to a low of $16.19 in early NY trading but managed to rally and close at $16.35. The rout in palladium continued, the metal was dumped to a seven month low $901 and is now trading lower than platinum, which finished the session at $911. The Philadelphia gold and silver index added 0.77%. The SPDR gold trust holdings rose 0.24% to 854.09 metric tons. In todays trading, gold found an early bid and traded up to $1333 with the Chinese still out, however resting orders around yesterdays high capped the market.. USD/JPY rebounded back above 107 and gold has now slipped back to the opening levels. The yellow metal is at $1327.30 as I write. Silver traded up to $16.43 earlier in the day but has slipped to $16.31 as I write. PGMs are flat, with palladium find support ahead of the $900 level. All eyes on the US tonight for the NFP numbers, given the market volatility we have seen over the past week it would be no surprise to see some action following the release. Gold should find initial resistance at yesterdays high at $1334 with the April high of $1347 to follow. First support will be at $1322 with the 100 DMA at $1311 below that.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 29 Mar 2018

MACRO: U.S. GDP outpaced expectations during 4Q, increasing +2.9% QoQ (exp: +2.7%) from an earlier estimate of +2.5%, however down from a +3.2% pace in 3Q. Imports grew at a revised +14.1% pace, mildly up on the +14.0% previously estimated, while inventory investment increased at a rate of $15.6 billion from $8.0 billion previously reported, subtracting 0.53 percentage points from GDP growth. Personal consumption expenditures increased at a +4.0% annualised rate (exp: +3.8%) during 4Q, revised upwards from a +3.8% estimate previously. Core PCE meanwhile held unchanged at +1.9% QoQ to be in-line with expectations. Pending home sales in the U.S. increased +3.1% MoM during February (exp: +2.0%) to follow a downwardly revised -5.0% print in January (prev: -4.7%). On an annualised basis, sales were down -4.4% YoY. Equity markets in the U.S. closed in negative territory for a second consecutive session on Wednesday, seeing choppy trade as investors grappled with mixed economic data and further weakness across technology stocks. The DJIA ended the session just -0.04% down at 23,848.42 points, while the S&P 500 dipped -0.29% to 2,605.00 points and the Nasdaq composite slumped -0.85% to 6,949.227 points. The greenback continued to push higher on Wednesday, making notable gains against the yen to touch a near one-month high. The positive U.S. GDP print helped to underpin gains, as the DXY index ended the session +0.8% higher. European markets closed mixed on Wednesday, seeing the Stoxx Europe 600 +0.46% higher to 369.26 points courtesy of gains to utilities and healthcare, while the German Dax pulled back -0.25%, however pared early session declines. In the U.K. the FTSE 100 finished +0.64% higher, supported by a weaker pound and gains across utilities. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei is flat, the Shanghai composite is at +0.76%, the Hang Seng at +0.15%, and the ASX S&P 200 closed at -0.52%. Tonight we have weekly jobless claims, personal income, consumer spending, core inflation, Chicago PMI, and the consumer sentiment index out of the US; along with unemployment and inflation data out of Germany.

PRECIOUS: The precious under pressure from the rising US dollar as gold drops over 1.5%. Gold opened at $1345 in Asia and remained close to that level through most of the day, with the $7-9 SGE premium helping to support the market and decent producer selling capping any rise. Late in Asian hours the metal started to drift lower and sat at $1340 as London came in. After a brief consolidation period, London were sellers as the greenback found broad support. NY were happy to sell into the weakness and the yellow metal traded steadily lower to the day's nadir at $1323, followed by a finish slightly higher. Silver was dumped 30c to a week-low $16.24. PGMs were sold heavily also, with palladium again testing the March lows at $962 and platinum touching $930 for the first time since early Jan. The Philadelphia gold and silver index lost 1.97%. In todays trading, gold picked up a couple of dollars after the Asian open and has traded between $1326-28 for most of the day. The SGE premium is slightly elevated at around $9 over loco London which has prompted some decent buying out of China. The yellow metal is at $1327.40 as I write. Silver is all but flat for the day, the grey metal is at the high of $16.27 as I write. Gold can expect broad resistance between $1335-40, a consolidation above $1340 could prompt another run at the March high of $1356 that was printed earlier in the week. We should see close support at the overnight low of $1323, below that the 100 DMA is converging with the 2018 lows at around $1309-10 and we expect plenty of resting orders around that level.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Wed 11 Apr 2018

MARKETS/MACRO: The 'risk on' trade returned overnight after Chinese President Xi Jinping cooling trade war fears in a speech at the Asian Boao Forum. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged +428.90 points, or +1.79%, to 24,408.00, the S&P500 rallied +43.71 points, or +1.67%, to 2,656.87 and the NASDAQ Composite leapt +143.957 points, or +2.07%, to 7,094.30. The best performing sector was Energy (+3.32%), while the defensive REIT's ( -0.76%) suffered. European stocks were equally strong, with most markets rallying to month highs. The EuroFirst 300 index jumped +12.74 points, or +0.87% to 1,484.28 and the EuroStoxx 600 advanced +3.12 points, or +0.83% to 378.42. Regionally the FTSE100 inclined +1.0%, DAX +1.11% and CAC40 +0.84%. Crude oil prices surged higher following Xi's speech, with Brent pushing through USD $70.00 a barrel to reach its highest level since early 2014. Sentiment was also buoyed by reports that Saudi Arabia is now targeting USD $80 a barrel for Brent crude oil prices according to BBG. This news broke just as the Kingdom released a statement saying it plans to keep exports below 7 million b/d again in May. This will be the 12th month in a row that exports have been below this key target however. This bullish tone was further exacerbated by comments from the head of the IEA’s oil industry and markets division Neil Atkinson, saying oil inventories will be below their five year average 'soon'. In FX, it was a relatively quiet session with muted action in G10; the move in RUB still the focal point as the US sanctions continue to put serious pressure on the currency. Elsewhere, the AUD continued to trade well technically while benefitting from the underlying bid to commodities. The JPY sold-off, in-line with the rally in risk and USDCNH dropped through 6.30 post Xi and never looked back. Treasury yields pushed higher in the risk on environment with the U.S 10y yield increasing +2.19bps to 2.801% and the U.S 2y yield rising +2.86bps to 2.3069%.

Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday promised to open the country’s economy further and lower import tariffs on products including cars, in a speech that comes amid rising trade tensions between China and the U.S. Xi also said China would raise the foreign ownership limit in the automobile sector “as soon as possible” and push previously announced measures to open the financial sector. “This year, we will considerably reduce auto import tariffs, and at the same time reduce import tariffs on some other products”, Xi said at the Chinese Boao Forum for Asia in Hainan province. They come amid rising trade tensions between China and the United States following a week of escalating tariff threats sparked by U.S. frustration with China’s trade and intellectual property policies. Xi said that China will take measures to sharply widen market access for foreign investors. China will also speed up opening of its insurance sector to foreign investors, he said.

PRECIOUS: Precious metal market focus remains on the consequences of recent Russian sanctions by the U.S, with palladium prices surging as a result. Russia is the world's largest exporter of the metal and the risk of further sanctions has helped propel the price higher (+2.5% yesterday). This is on top of the fact the metal has been in gross under-supply for the past 6 months. Support sits now at $900 (Fibonacci level), with a target now sitting at the 200 dma ($975). Gold performed reasonably well yesterday considering the general 'risk on' sentiment following President Xi's speech, slowly grinding higher throughout Europe and the U.S sessions. The yellow metal was sold off in Asia yesterday, following a brief spike right around the open of Tocom to around $1328. China however were sellers and the spot market quickly edged back down toward $1334 and then $1332 later in the afternoon. As London traders walked in however some modest demand began to creep in and the price slowly headed north. The metal remained fairly resilient despite Xi easing tensions over the China-US trade war and the metal continued to angle higher. Spec bids continued to push the market through $1340 towards the end of the session and we closed right on $1340. The precious sector has been given a boost on the back of rising base metal prices over the past days (Aluminium +10% in 3 days) and it looks set to continue, with interest picking up in upside options. Gold and silver, for now, remain within the broad range however and we expect good supply around $1360 and $16.80 respectively. A break of these levels though could see some shorts squeezed.

Another quiet day today for Asia, with the gold edging higher throughout the day. The yellow metal opened around $1340 and edged higher over the next few hours touching a peak of $1342.50 before the China open. Again the Chinese were on the offer with the premium a little lower than the previous session at between $6-8 over Loco London gold for onshore traders. Once the SGE opened the spot gold dropped back towards $1340 where it did a little work into the afternoon, contained to a tight $1 range. Silver followed gold for the most part throughout the day and the PGM's were flat following last nights impressive moves. In other markets equities were mixed with the Nikkei and ASX200 currently trading lower at -0.3% and -0.5% respectively, while the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng are up +0.7% and +0.8%. Both WTI and Brent crude are currently down on the day -0.35% a piece at $65.32 and $70.77 respectively and the USD is generally softer against the G10, with the exception of AUD. Ahead today on the data front, U.S CPI data will take centre stage. We also have FOMC minutes and UK Industrial production and trade balance.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 5 Apr 2018

MACRO: The Chinese finance ministry announced on Wednesday that it would impose additional tariffs of 25 per cent on 106 U.S. goods, including soybeans, cars, chemicals, corn products and other agricultural goods, with the products targeted by the tariffs worth USD $50 billion in 2017. The move came following an announcement from the Trump Administration that a 25 per cent tariff would be imposed on 1,300 types of industrial technology, transport and medical products in a bid to force changes to China’s intellectual property practices. The suggested U.S. imposed tariffs would not take place immediately, rather be open for public comment until May 11, with a hearing set for May 15. The ‘tit-for-tat’ action saw equities in the U.S. open sharply lower as investor’s struggled to grasp the implications of the latest round of economic protectionism. Equity markets endured a volatile session following the tariff announcements, with each of the three major bourse's falling more than -1% in early session trade before rebounding sharply. The DJIA ended trade +0.96% higher to 24,264.30 points, traversing an astounding 700 points from the session low to closing level. The S&P 500 slipped below the important 200 DMA briefly before turning higher to book a +1.16% return to 2,644.69 points, finding support from consumer discretionary stocks (+1.81%) as all components with the exception of energy (-0.14%) closed higher. The Nasdaq Composite jumped +1.45% to 7,042.107 points and in the process marked the best single-session comeback since early February. Private payrolls in the U.S. increased by 241,000 during March according to the latest ADP report, outpacing the estimated 210,000 and generally in-line with February’s upwardly revised 246,000 increase (prev: 235,000). Service providers were responsible for the bulk of the hires, adding 176,000 payrolls, while goods producing industries gained 65,000 hires. Medium sized firms (50-499 employees) led the way to add 127,000 jobs, large firms (499+) gained 67,000 and small firms (1-49) increased by 47,000. U.S. factory orders increased +1.2% during February (exp: +1.7%) to follow a -1.3% decline during January. The headline figure was supported by a +7.0% increase in orders for transportation equipment, driven by a +26.2% surge in orders for civilian aircraft. On an annualised basis orders jumped +7.9% YoY during February. Non-defence capital goods meanwhile increased +1.4% MoM. European markets edged lower on Wednesday as investor’s considered the likelihood of a ‘trade war’ between the U.S. and China. The Stoxx Europe 600 pulled back -0.47% to 367.33 points, the export-heavy German Dax dipped -0.37% to 11,957.90 points as autos lost ground, while the French CAC eased -0.20% to 5,141.80 points. In the U.K. the FTSE edged just +0.05% higher to finish at 7,034.01 points after recovering from early session weakness. The greenback eased marginally lower on Wednesday to see the DXY index off -0.1%, however saw strength against the yen to reverse an early European test of 106.00 and book a +0.15% return.

PRECIOUS: Asian pricing on Thursday skewed to the down-side in a continuation of the overnight weakness, with the market lacking the usual demand out of Shanghai as China took leave for the Ching Ming Festival. An early session move toward USD $1,335 saw offers around the Fibonacci retracement level cap in further gains, seeing pricing tailing off into the afternoon in the face of mild dollar headwinds. Late Asian offers took the metal underneath the 50 DMA at USD $1330.50 and while further declines have so far been muted, we will look to the figure as a pivot point for further price direction as we head into Friday's U.S. jobs data. Should bullion see further weakness, we look to initial support toward USD $1,320, while the 100 DMA underneath this will act to restrict further declines. Weakness in silver continued today as the metal once again failed to make headway through resistance levels overnight. Although held within a tight range in Asia, the metal, much like gold, skewed to the down-side throughout the session and will look to hold recent support levels around USD $16.20, of which has been tested numerous times over the past fortnight. Data releases today include German factory orders, Markit services & composite PMI prints from Italy, France, Germany, the Eurozone and the U.K., U.S. initial jobless claims, U.S. trade balance and U.S. Bloomberg consumer confidence.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

DAILY REPORT : Wed 28 Mar 2018

MARKETS/MACRO: U.S. stocks came under pressure in late-afternoon trade on Tuesday, as a sell-off in the technology sector fuelled a rout that threatened to wipe out Monday’s powerful perfomance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -344.89 points, or -1.43%, to 23,857.71, the S&P500 retreated -45.93 points, or -1.73%, to 2,612.62 and The NASDAQ Composite tanked -211.737 points, or -2.93%, to 7,008.806. The best performing sector was utilities (+1.46%), while information technology was thrashed (-3.47%). European stocks on the other hand finished with healthy gains, breaking a string of losses as concerns about a potential global trade war eased and as investors turned their focus to corporate headlines. The EuroFirst 300 index leapt +17.65 points, or +1.24% to 1,438.35 and the Euro Stoxx 600 made similar gains of 4.39 points, or +1.21% to 367.57. Regionally the FTSE100 surged +1.62%, DAX rose 1.56% and CAC40 added +0.98%. Crude oil prices fell sharply overnight ( May WTI -1.2% to $64.66), as the market returned its focus back to U.S crude oil stockpiles. A Bloomberg survey shows the market is now expecting a rise of +850k barrels last week ahead of the EIA report today, which is despite OPEC continuing to point to falling inventories elsewhere around the world. Rates markets enjoyed the best rally of the last few weeks overnight, with yields in major markets lower by ~6–7bps. Fixed income caught a safe-haven bid as the equity markets view on tech stocks has soured, the U.S 10y yield decreasing -7.31bps to 2.7789% and the U.S 2y yield fell -0.43bps to 2.2661%. In FX, the Euro and Cable were relatively supported on the back of the risk-off selling, though commodity currencies traded with quite an offered tone. The AUD has been the clear under-performer in the G10 space over recent weeks and again yesterday, with traders noting that the AUD has been hard to chase with the equity moves.

On the data front the U.S Conference Board said Tuesday its measure of Consumer Confidence decreased to 127.7 in March (131.0 expected) from an 18-year high of 130.0 in February. This month, the present situation index fell to 159.9 from 161.2 prior and the expectations index dropped to 106.2 from 109.2 last month. The Conference Board survey ran through March 15, so it captured financial market volatility earlier this month. U.S. equity markets fell in early March, as investors worried that U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminium could hurt firms that use the metals to manufacture goods. Stock prices have recently risen as trade fears ease. The Richmond Fed's manufacturing index decreased to +15 in March (22 expected), versus a 28 reading seen in February. Overall, downward pressure stemmed from new orders (17, down from 27), shipments (15, down from 31), the number of employees (11, down from 25), the average workweek (12, from 28) and wages (22, from 23). Across the Atlantic, the Euro-zone Consumer Confidence Index was unchanged in March at 0.1, coming in on expectation. At first glimpse, it appears the hangover from political uncertainty, owing to the Italian election and German government formation difficulties, has persisted, suggesting investment and consumption spending may moderate somewhat in the near term. That said, the ongoing tightening in labour market conditions (the unemployment rate hit a 9 year low in January) should see confidence remain high overall.

The ECB’s Nowotny hinted that the Central Bank will look to unwind its bond purchases in September, stating it will have to decide during the summer what happens next and that he saw a clear possibility to reduce stimulus after September. It was interesting that he added that it was important for the ECB not to fall behind the curve, which suggests confidence is rising that inflation will return to target among the more hawkish caucus on the ECB governing council.

PRECIOUS: Gold ultimately retreated overnight despite trading to a fresh 6 week high ($1356.70) during the early European hours. The metal traded in a fairly robust fashion during the Asian day, exhibiting some brief selling leading into the Shanghai open, yet managing to hold onto the $1350 handle. Once China opened for business the USDCNY immediately made its way lower from 6.26 to 6.25, which bumped up the SGE premium to around $7-8 over the spot price and drew out some demand. There was persistent (albeit modest) Australian producer selling on the approach of $1355 however (XAUAUD ~$1750), which kept things in check as we moved into the afternoon. Very late in the Asia day and early London, the gold spiked to $1356.70, but lacked any follow through then quickly retreated to the then daily low just before the U.S stepped in. Despite the softer U.S equities and firmer treasuries, gold continued to slide throughout the U.S day, dropping to a low of $1340.15 but finding some support there. It recovered over the last few hours of trade to round out the session at $1345. For now we are holding onto the gains seen last week, although given the impulsive nature of the move, we suspect that weak longs may be stretched on a move back through $1340, paving the way for deeper retracement. Silver sold off in tandem with the gold yesterday, initially poking through the 200 dma ($16.78), which incidentally has held very well since February, only to be trounced back toward $16.50. PGM's also followed a similar trajectory. With the Easter holiday approaching we expect to see liquidity begin to dissipate in upcoming sessions.

It was a slower day today in terms of price action the gold quite happy to consolidate narrowly either side of $1345. With the U.S GDP scheduled to be released later today traders were happy to kick back and await the outcome. The gold opened at $1345.50 and initially dipped off slightly to the days lows just before the SGE kicked off. The premium on the exchange remained similar to yesterday around USD $7-8 over the spot price, and the volume churning through was two-way and moderate, having little impact on the LL gold price. With an absence of any meaningful local data the market remained quiet across all precious metals. In other markets, Asian equities are trading heavy at time of writing the Nikkei is -1.9%, Hang Seng -1.45%, Shanghai Composite -1.1% and ASX200 -0.75%. The dollar is a little softer across the G10 at present the AUDUSD the biggest winner so far up +0.25% (20 pips) to 0.7700, which is the current high. Attention tonight will be on the U.S GDP numbers, as well as pending home sales, building permits and wholesale inventories.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.