DAILY REPORT : Monday 18 Sep 2017

MACRO: U.S. retail sales disappointed during August, sliding -0.2% MoM (exp: +0.1%) to follow a downwardly revised +0.3% (prev: +0.6%) during July. August's soft figure was the largest fall in six months, however indications are that the weakness predominately stems from a -1.6% fall to motor vehicle sales due to disruptions caused by Hurricane Harvey. Declines to both July and June, however indicate that consumer spending may be moderating following a strong second quarter. On an annualised basis sales increased +3.2% YoY, while core sales (ex-auto, gas, building materials and food) dipped -0.2% MoM (exp: +0.2%) to follow a +0.6% gain during July. Industrial production in the U.S. fell for the first time in seven months during August, collapsing -0.9% MoM (exp: +0.1%) from an upwardly revised +0.4% (prev: +0.2%) during July. The monthly decline was the largest since May 2009 and predominately a result of storm effect on oil and gas drilling, as well as food processing. U.S. equities continued to run higher on Friday, booking weekly gains as investor's shrugged off geopolitical concerns. The DJIA added +0.29% to end the session at 22,268.34 points, the sixth consecutive positive session for the bourse and the fourth consecutive record close on the way to a +2.2% weekly return. Gains to utilities (+0.75%) and financials (+0.48%) saw the S&P 500 +0.18% higher to a fresh record close of 2,500.23 points, ending the week with a +1.6% gain. The Nasdaq Composite fell just short of a record close, posting a +0.30% gain to 6,448.467 points and a weekly return of +1.4%. Oil futures edged higher on Friday, booking the largest weekly gain since late July on a mix of global supply issues and a further decline to U.S. active oil rigs, down 7 to to 749. WTI ended trade on Friday +0.1% higher at USD $49.81 per barrel after climbing back above USD $50 intra-session, while Brent crude tacked on USD $0.15 or +0.3% to USD $55.62 per barrel. On a weekly basis WTI surged +5.1% and Brent jumped +3.4%, both of which marked the largest weekly gain since July 28. Markets in Europe sunk on Friday as a soaring pound weighed upon regionals. U.K. stocks fell to the lowest level since late April following comments from traditionally dovish Monetary Policy Committee member Gertjan Vlieghe noting that interest rates may need to go up in the coming months. The U.K. FTSE 100 ended the session -1.10% lower, the Stoxx Europe 600 declined -0.28% and the German Dax eased -0.17%.

PRECIOUS: Talk out of the U.S. on the weekend regarding a peaceful resolution to tensions on the Korean peninsula had bullion under pressure during Asian trade on Monday, while further dollar strength kept rallies short lived. Early session pricing saw gold underneath Friday's low print in thin trade on account of a Japanese holiday, making light work of USD $1,320 to touch a USD $1,315 low pre-China. Early interest out of Shanghai saw on the on-shore premium spike to around USD $7 over loco London gold and with it spot to USD $1,319.75, however offers around the USD $1,320 pivot point saw the rally soon run out of steam. Afternoon pricing saw further dollar strength weigh upon bullion, seeing the metal once again test a break below USD $1,315 as Europe opened, perhaps saved from further weakness by continued interest during China's afternoon session. The greenback continues to drive bullion price action (particular focus on UST yields) and we expect to see choppy price action in the lead up to Wednesday's FOMC meeting, with participants expecting the Federal Reserve to announce plans to begin its balance sheet tapering in addition to hints regarding a potential interest rate increase in December. Broad short-term resistance for gold sits around USD $1,320 - $1,325, while strong down-side support around USD $1,300 should restrict further declines unless the U.S. and North Korea come to an unlikely understanding. It is worth noting that the latest COTR shows still generally high positioning, with gold adding over 1 million ounces last reporting period (increase in longs the main driver) to now sit toward 80% of all-time high positioning. Silver continues to trade heavily after losing touch with USD $18, with down-side targets now extending to USD $17.50 and the 200 DMA around USD $17.20. The standout on Monday was undoubtedly palladium, ripping higher in volatile afternoon trade to add +1.7%, searching for liquidity with TOCOM closed. Data releases today include Eurozone CPI and U.S. NAHB housing data.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 12 Sep 2017

MACRO: After U.S. markets had closed, news hit the wires that the UN Security Council had unanimously agreed to adopt new sanctions on North Korea following the recent nuclear test. While the U.S. had called for an oil embargo on the rouge state, a watered down sanction following negotiations capped exports to North Korea at current levels. The sanctions also focused on two main sources of currency, banning textile exports (USD $752 million in 2016) and prohibiting all countries from authorising new work permits for North Korean workers. North Korea has warned the U.S. that it would make them pay a heavy price should tougher sanctions be approved by the Security Council.

With a lack of major economic data releases for direction, investor's were instead buoyed by a tempering of tensions on the Korean peninsula and a downgraded Hurricane Irma to send equities higher on Monday. Broad based gains saw 28 of the 30 companies within the DJIA end higher, seeing the bourse jump +1.19% to 22,057.37 points and mark the largest single session percentage gain since March 1. Strong performances across financials (+1.74%) and technology (+1.50%) helped propel the S&P 500 +1.08% higher to a record closing level of 2,488.11 points, while the Nasdaq Composite popped +1.13% higher to 6,432.264 points. The greenback recovered from recent weakness on Monday, clawing back ground against rivals as participants moved back toward risk. The DXY opened higher in Asia and continued to see interest throughout the session to end with a +0.7% gain, notably outpacing jpy as the pair pushed back above 109.00. Treasury yields pushed higher as prices declined on Friday, seeing the 10-year add around 8bps to 2.1323% and the 2-year 5.6bps higher to 1.318%. Markets across Europe posted strong gains on Monday, benefiting from a move back into risk as geopolitical tensions ease. The Stoxx Europe 600 jumped +1.04% to mark its largest gain since mid August, as insurers recovered recent session declines following reports that damage from Hurricane Irma is not as bad as first thought. In Germany the Dax spiked +1.39% as exporters benefitted from a softer euro, while in the U.K. the FTSE 100 closed +0.49% higher as insurers pushed higher.

PRECIOUS: Gold continued to soften on Monday following Asia's soft open, dragged lower amid a stronger greenback as risk returned following an easing of tensions on the Korean peninsula. The metal lost sight of USD $1,340 in early session trade, however was able to consolidate around USD $1,335 throughout the remainder of rangebound Asian trade. Interest returned in early European hours as the dollar took a brief pause, however offers toward USD $1,340 restricted any further gains and bullion once again became subject to selling pressures. Late session dollar strength saw USD/JPY back above 109.00 and with it gold broke below support around USD $1,330 to end the session -1.4% lower. ETF holdings pushed higher on Monday, seeing a further 53k ounces of inflows. Bullion saw an initial bid tone reversed during early Asian trade today, unable to push back above USD $1,330 leading into Chinese trade. Interest out of Shanghai saw the onshore premium inch toward USD $6 over London gold to keep bullion buoyant around USD $1,325, however once the far East took lunch, the yellow metal saw a brief stop run below the support to print a USD $1,323.20 low. Late afternoon interest saw gold opened in Europe toward USD $1,327, supported in part by China's return from lunch, however the greenback continues to trade bid to thwart any moves above USD $1,330. Bullion continues to remain heavy in-line with the risk off tone across the broader market and a strengthening dollar. Support toward USD $1,325 remains relatively intact and it's important to keep in mind we are now around USD $30 lower from Friday's Asian session high, while global fundamentals are largely unchanged. The next major down-side support would see USD $1,300 in play, however should the recent price action be viewed as a healthy pullback before the recommencement of the uptrend, we are unlikely to see this level tested. Data releases today include U.K. CPI and U.S. NFIB small business optimism.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Wed 6 Sep 2017

MARKETS/MACRO: U.S. stocks closed firmly lower on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 snapping a six-day rise, as investors focused on heightened tensions between the West and North Korea and worries about a lack of progress on President Donald Trump’s policy agenda. Low trading volume, particularly as investors returned from a the Labour Day long weekend, added to the downbeat tone. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its largest ingle day decline since August 17, falling -234.25 points, or -1.07%, to 21,753.31, the S&P500 sold off -18.7 points, or -0.76%, to 2,457.85 and the NASDAQ slumped -59.757 points, or -0.93%, to 6,375.574. The best performing sector was Energy (+0.56%) and the worst performing sector was Financials (-2.20%). It was a similar scenario in Europe, stocks erasing morning gains and turning lower as ongoing concerns about North Korea weighed on investors. The FTSE EuroFirst 300 index dipped -1.83 points, or -0.12% to 1,468.30 and the Euro Stoxx 600 came off -0.47 of a point, or -0.13% to 373.71. Crude oil prices rallied strongly as restarts at Texas refineries raised hopes of better demand in the US. Reports from various refineries suggest the damage hasn’t been structural and with many now making tentative steps to get back online, the outlook for crude oil demand in the region is looking better. However, with another hurricane threatening to hit the US coast, traders still remain cautious. WTI Crude rallied +$1.26, or +2.66%, to $48.55 a barrel. In treasuries, yields were hit as risk suffered, the US 10y yield decreased -9.92bps to 2.0665% and the 2y yield fell -5.2bps to 1.2900%.

July US factory orders were softer -3.3% MoM, with final durable goods orders down -6.8%. The headline drop in durables looks much worse than the underlying would suggest, capital goods orders excluding aircraft were up +1.0% MoM. The Euro zone final composite PMI dipped slightly in August to 55.7 from 55.8. While still at healthy levels it does question if momentum in the euro area upswing may be peaking.

The Fed's Brainard described inflation undershooting the Fed target for a number of years and weak underlying inflationary trends. She said “my own view is that we should be cautious about tightening policy further until we are confident inflation is on track to achieve our target”. In a similar vein, the dovish Kashkari said that there is still slack in the labour market and inflation has been low. He also noted that rate hikes may have done “real harm to the economy” and premature rate hikes are “not free”.

North Korea continued to provoke the U.S. overnight. Han Tae Song, ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva, confirmed that North Korea had successfully conducted its sixth and largest nuclear bomb test on Sunday. "The recent self defence measures by my country, DPRK, are a gift package addressed to none other than the U.S.", Han told a disarmament conference. "The U.S. will receive more 'gift packages' from my country as long as it relies on reckless provocations and futile attempts to put pressure on the DPRK," he added without elaborating. Trump on the other hand tweeted “I am allowing Japan & South Korea to buy a substantially increased amount of highly sophisticated military equipment from the United States”. This followed on from news that Trump agreed to remove the limit on allowed payloads for South Korean missiles.

PRECIOUS: After shrugging off some weak longs and trading below $1330 in the NYK session, gold continued its march higher, posting a fresh cycle high of $1344.25 before closing around $1340. In Asia the day was a bit of a grind with some moderate to good volume flowing through Ecomex with mainly selling seen. We traded a few dollars lower pre-SGE down towards $1332 but some North Korean headlines hitting the wires put a quick halt to the selling interest. Bloomberg headlines mentioned that South Korea had detected North Korean missile launch preparation and gold ran a sharp $5 higher. This was right after the SGE open, which started proceedings with a healthy $6 premium over the loco London price, already drawing out buyers. After trying towards $1339 very briefly, the market then cruised into consolidation mode hovering around $1335-36 into the European open. Their first reaction was to sell into the higher prices and the metal dipped back towards $1330, but there were some underlying bids around. Just before the NY open a breach of the previous lows just under $1330 prompted a stop loss sweep with 5,000 lots (GCZ7) trading in less than a minute down to the days lows of $1326.50. Once U.S. equities opened they were hit hard and gold mounted a recovery in line with softening yields. It was a measured climb that continued for much of the NYK day, aided by some comments from Brainard promoting caution about raising rates too fast and the N Korean diplomat to the disarmament conference in Geneva further taunting the U.S. The yellow metal peaked at $1344.25 before subsiding slightly into the close at $1340. Silver was more stubborn, rallying only modestly when comparing to gold and palladium had a real roller-coaster, pushing highing in NYK then being flattened some $35. Volume was tiny on the move so no real substance there.

With USDJPY and equity markets remaining under pressure there is good scope for gold to move higher in the coming sessions. Initial support comes in at $1338 for gold followed by the $1326-28 area. Topside resistance sits at the overnight highs $1344.25 and $1350.

It was a fairly slow day in Asia today with some initial follow through buying from macro and retail names, but we ultimately traded lower with China on the offer. We opened just beneath $1340 and there was some bids around early on which pushed the price up a few dollars. The metal traded fairly quietly in the lead up to SGE open with gold sitting around $1342. Once Shanghai opened the premium on the exchange was a few dollars lower than yesterday (~$4.00-4.50) for onshore traders and prompted some liquidation. Spot gold edged lower in sympathy and traded back through $1340 with light volume going through between $1338-1340 for the afternoon. In other markets equities are currently lower, WTI crude is up smalls (+0.14%) or $0.10 to $48.70 and the USD in narrowly mixed vs the majors. On the data front look out for U.S. trade balance, services and composite PMI's, ISM non-manufacturing and the beige book. We also have BoC rate decision.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Friday 15 Sep 2017

MACRO: North Korea fired another ballistic missile over Japan this morning, the second in as many weeks. The missile was launched from Pyongyang at 6:57am Japan time and flew over the northern island of Hokkaido, prompting the Japanese government to issue a warning to its citizens to take cover and stay away from anything that could be debris. The missile eventually splashed down in the Pacific Ocean approximately 2,000km from land. US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson issued a statement urging China and Russia to do more, "China and Russia must indicate their intolerance for these reckless missile launches by taking direct actions of their own". The UN Security Council has scheduled an emergency meeting for Friday at the request of the US and Japan. In US economic data, CPI climbed 04% in August following the modest 0.1% increase in July. The rise was the biggest since January and exceeded economists of a 0.3% increase. Energy was the most significant contributor, with oil prices climbing over the last month as Hurricane Harvey interrupted refining operations in Texas. The year on year increase in consumer prices rose to 1.9%, which is just below the Feds target rate of 2%. Core CPI, which removes food and energy from the calculation, rose 0.2% representing he largest increase in 6 months. Initial jobless claims fell by 14k to 284k in the week ending September 10, continuing jobless claims fell by 7k to 1.94M. US equities were mixed as the stronger than expected inflation data signalled the possibility of tighter monetary policy later in the year. The Dow added 45.3 points, or 0.20%, to 22,203.48, the S&P 500 fell 2.68 points, or 0.11%, to 2,495.69, and the Nasdaq slipped 31.10 points, or 0.48%. to 6,429.084. Utilities (+0.87%) and REITs (+0.58%) were the stand-outs while consumer discretionary (-0.55%) and telecoms (-0.40%) were among the laggards. European shares were mixed, the EuroSTOXX rose by 0.45 points, or 0.12%, to 381.79, the German DAX declined 13.12 or 0.10%, to 12,540.45, the London FTSE 100 dropped 84.31 points, or 1.14%, to 7,295.39. In the currency markets, the US dollar index slipped 0.41% to 92.142, the EUR traded up to 1.1921, while USD/JPY traded as low as 109.91. US treasury yields were higher, the 2 year yield rose 1.64 bps to 1.3635%, while the 10-year yield gained 0.17 bps to 2.1900%. In commodities news, oil markets were higher as Brent rallied 0.91% to $49.75 and WTI gained 0.24% to $55.29. Base metals closed broadly lower, with nickel (-1.4%) leading the losses. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei sits at +0.61%, the Shanghai composite is at -0.32%, the Hang Seng at +0.30%, and the ASX S&P 200 at -0.69%. Tonight we have retail sales, the Empire State Index, industrial production, capacity utilisation, business inventories, and consumer sentiment out of the US; and balance of trade, labour cost index, and wage growth out of the Eurozone.

PRECIOUS: Volatile session for the precious on stronger than expected US inflation data. Gold opened at $1323 and was quickly testing the $1320 level as bullish sentiment in USD lingered from the night before. The SGE premium was higher at around $5-6 and there was decent buying out of China which supported the market. London were on the bid early, squeezing the market to $1325 before a quick retreat to the lows. The real fun started after NY open, initially the price dropped to the days low of $1316 on release of the strong CPI numbers, but the yellow metal bounced up to $1326 in a matter of minutes. Gold pushed higher from here in choppy trade, supported by a sell off in the greenback, closing the session out around the highs at $1329. Silver traded steadily lower through the Asian session to the low $17.63, choppy trade through London AM and onwards saw the grey metal oscillate within a 10c range before printing the high of $17.78 just prior to close. Palladium was disappointing, back above $940 during Asian hours before sliding to a low of $926. The Philadelphia gold and silver index added 0.52%. The SPDR gold trust holdings were unchanged at 838.64 metric tons. Today's trading has been surprisingly uneventful given the news from North Korea this morning. Gold firmed a few dollars following the Asian open, trading as high as $1334 before coming off the boil and consolidating around the opening levels. The SGE premium has pulled back a little from yesterday to trade between $2-4 over loco London prompting some selling out of China. The yellow metal is at $1330 as I write. Silver has traded in line with gold, popping up over $17.80 earlier and drifting to sit at $17.75 as I write. PGMs are creeping into positive territory, platinum and palladium are at $980 and $926 respectively. The outlook for gold is looking more positive following a fairly emphatic rejection of the $1320 support overnight. Investors will be looking for a sustained move above $1235 as potential for a push higher.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Monday 11 Sep 2017

MACRO: U.S. wholesale inventories outpaced expectations during July, adding +0.6% MoM (exp: +0.4%) from +0.6% previously. Auto inventories increased +0.2% following a +1.1% surge in June, while inventories ex autos, the component that it used in the calculation of GDP, posted a +0.7% gain. Durable goods inventories pushed +0.9% higher, underpinned by a +1.1% increase to machinery, the largest rise in three and a half years. Consumer credit in the U.S. spiked to USD $18.499 billion during July according to data released by the Federal Reserve on Friday, outpacing expectations centered around USD $15.00 billion, and by far and away exceeding June's USD $11.827 billion print. The headline figure was led by increases to non-revolving credit such as student loans, jumping to USD $15.8 billion from USD $7.1 billion during June. Equity markets in the U.S. ended trade mixed on Friday, as investor's considered the potential for a further missile test from North Korea over the weekend, in addition to Hurricane Irma's arrival off the Florida coast. The DJIA edged +0.06% higher to 21,797.79 points, however posted a -0.9% decline over the week. The S&P 500 saw weakness across energy (-1.06%) and technology (-0.86%) take the bourse -0.15% lower at 2,461.43 points, while over the week the bourse handed back -0.6%. The greenback continued to decline on Friday, as concerns over the impacts of recent weather events grow. The DXY index ended trade around -0.2% lower after paring Asian declines in early New York trade, with USD/JPY falling below 108.00 for the first time since November 2016. Meanwhile, treasury yields ended marginally softer on Friday to cap off a week of declines. The 10-year yield inched up 1bps to 2.0507%, however over the duration of the week, declined 10bps to mark the largest weekly fall since mid-April. U.S. oil futures slumped on Friday as the recovery in Texas following Hurricane Harvey begins. WTI booked a -3.3% fall to underneath USD $47.48 per barrel, however was able to end the week +0.4% higher. Meanwhile Brent crude fared marginally better, ending -1.3% down on the session, however over the week tacked on a healthy +2%. European markets ended choppy trade marginally higher on Friday, unable to break through the headwinds created by a strengthening euro. The Stoxx Europe 600 ended trade +0.15% higher, while the German Dax recovered from early session declines to gain +0.06% as imports into the country increased +2.2% MoM. Equities in the U.K. shed -0.26% as the big miners lost ground following soft Chinese exports numbers.

PRECIOUS: A week is a long time in financial markets, as evidenced by early price action in Asia today. Following a USD $10 sweep higher only seven days ago on the back of North Korea's hydrogen bomb test, bullion took an about-face today, declining by the same margin as the rouge state's Foundation Day came and went with no further test. After ending trade on Friday at the highest level in 12-months, a leg higher to the greenback on Monday took bullion through USD $1,340 on the open, as short term players exited weekend spec positions to wipe the 'Foundation Day risk premium' from the metal. An opportunistic move back above USD $1,340 was well sold to see the metal back toward USD $1,335 into the Chinese open. Interest out of the Far East saw the on-shore premium push out to around USD $5 to restrict further declines to bullion, however the dollar recovery saw both USD/CNH and USD/CNY back above 6.50 following Friday's rout, keeping top-side moves in check leading toward European hours. The latest CFTC data shows net futures and options length has increased by a further 1.8 million ounces as of last Tuesday, and we are likely to see this figure stretched even higher following the late week price action above USD $1,350. Following the early session move lower, participant's will be looking toward USD $1,325 - $1,330 as the first support level for gold, while moves higher will run up against resistance at USD $1,350 and above this, Friday's high of USD $1,357. Silver disappointed on Friday to end the session underneath USD $18, while the metal saw further weakness during Asian trade today. The grey metal saw modest flows in early hours to trade as low as USD $17.77 and will look to USD $17.50 as the first major support level. With regards to the white metals, platinum collapsed in New York on Friday following a move above USD $1,022 and will need to hold USD $1,000 to restrict a technical break lower, while palladium outperformed on Monday to add nearly +2% and recoup some of Friday's -3.3% fall.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 5 Sep 2017

MACRO: U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley told the Security Council that North Korean leader Kin Jong-un, "is begging for war" and that, "the time has come for us to exhaust all of our diplomatic means before it's too late." Washington are preparing a new sanctions resolution to be presented to the council, with a view to vote on it early next week. Meanwhile in an attempt to ease tensions, Swiss President, Doris Leuthard has offered her country's services as a mediator, noting that "We are ready to offer our role for good services as a mediator. I think in the upcoming weeks a lot will depend on how the U.S. and China can have influence in this crisis." In related developments, German Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke to President Trump on the phone and agreed that tougher EU sanctions are required, while Japan is planning, in the event of war, for a mass evacuation of nearly 60,000 Japanese citizens currently in South Korea.

Oil futures ended trade on Monday marginally higher in thin trade due to the U.S. Labor Day Holiday. As refineries started to come back online following the devastation caused by Hurricane Harvey, WTI (+0.25%) pushed higher during European hours before easing late into the early close, while Brent crude also eased late to book a -0.6% decline. With regard to currency majors, the USD softened modestly in mixed trade on Monday, seeing the DXY end -0.01% lower as participants moved into safe-haven assets such as the yen. Stocks in London lost ground on Monday following the weekend developments on the Korean peninsula, while a softer than expected Markit Construction PMI print of 51.1 (exp: 52.0) weighed further upon on the bourse. The FTSE 100 pulled back -0.36%, while mining stocks, predominately gold related caught a bid. Equities across Europe saw weakness on Monday as participants moved into safe-haven assets following the North Korean hydrogen bomb test on Sunday. The Stoxx Europe 600 ended trade -0.52% lower to snap a three session winning streak, while the German Dax posted a -0.33% decline.

PRECIOUS: Following the flight to safety on Monday after North Korea's hydrogen bomb test, bullion continued to see strength during Asian trade on Tuesday as the risk-off theme continued. Monday's shortened session as a result of the U.S. Labor Day Holiday saw gold gap higher at the open, printing USD $8 above Friday's closing level, before surging toward USD $1,338 amid heavy early interest. Mild profit taking saw bullion temper somewhat during Asian afternoon trade, however interest returned once again in Europe on the back of North Korean headlines, seeing the metal to a USD $1339.90 high during early European hours, before further profit taking and thin liquidity into the close saw gold to USD $1,334.25, ending around +0.7% higher than Friday's closing level. After running into resistance on Monday toward USD $1,340 and importantly around the U.S. Presidential Election Day high print (Nov 2016), bullion once again tested this level during Asian trade following headlines that North Korea were moving ICBM's toward launch sites. As we saw on Monday, the headline driven gains proved to be un-sustainable and bullion settled into a narrow range either-side of USD $1,335 during the afternoon, seeing resilient price action on the back of the underlying risk-off tone. We continue to see interest on dips underneath USD $1,335 and moves below USD $1,330 and USD $1,325 are likely required to flush out any short term long positioning that has accumulated so far this week. With a move through USD $1,340 proving to unattainable thus far, we wait for both further developments out of the Korean peninsula and New York's appetite for bullion today following their return from holiday. It is worth noting that Saturday, September 9, is North Korea Foundation Day and such days in the past have been used for missile testing. After reporting yesterday that palladium was testing toward USD $1,000, the white metal came within a whisker of the figure briefly on Monday, before being unceremoniously dumped in illiquid conditions. From a support standpoint USD $950 should restrict further declines, while we are expecting the metal to once again move toward USD $1,000 over the near-term on the back of tightening supplies. Data today includes U.S. Factory orders, durable goods orders and capital goods orders.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 14 Sep 2017

MACRO: U.S. producer prices rebounded during August, increasing +0.2% MoM (exp: +0.3%) to follow a -0.1% fall during July. On an annualised basis prices gained +2.4% YoY (exp: +2.5%) after advancing +1.9% YoY during July. Underpinning the headline print were strong gains to energy prices, while core PPI (ex food and energy) inched up +0.1% MoM (exp: +0.2%) from -0.1% previously and +2.0% YoY (exp: +2.1%) from +1.8% previously. Equity markets in the U.S. eked out modest gains on Wednesday, however it was enough to see all three of the major bourse's end at record closing levels for the second straight session. Strength to energy (+1.24%) and financials (+0.21%) was enough to overcome broader weakness and have the S&P 500 +0.08% higher at the closing bell, ending on the session high print of 2,498.37 points. The DJIA tacked on +0.18% to 22,158.18 points, while the Nasdaq Composite added +0.09% and end the session at 6,460 points. Oil futures booked a third consecutive gain on Wednesday, supported by an International Energy Agency report noting that global crude production fell during August for the first time in four months. WTI jumped +2.2% to USD $49.30 per barrel, marking the highest close since early August, while Brent crude added +1.6% to USD $55.16 per barrel, the highest finish since mid April. Equities across Europe ended mixed on Wednesday, while in the U.K. the FTSE 100 eased -0.28% as a stronger pound piled pressure on the bourse. The Stoxx Europe 600 narrowly snapped a five session winning streak to close just -0.08% down, while the German Dax outperformed to add +0.23%.

PRECIOUS: Bullion fell for a third consecutive session on Wednesday, losing touch with USD $1,330 to test key support around USD $1,320 as the greenback surged higher. Relatively muted price action throughout Asian and European trade gave way to a heavy New York session, with the yellow metal trading well offered as U.S. yields marched higher and USD/JPY consolidated above 110.00 following a test below the figure in Europe. Participants were happy to sit on the sidelines during Asian trade today, awaiting the U.S. inflation data to drive direction. As we have become accustomed to seeing in recent days, bullion was broadly supported by underlying interest out of China, however unable to make any further headway higher. The yellow metal saw a sharp sweep through the USD $1,320 support leading into the Shanghai open, however was largely range bound above this level for the remainder of trade amid relatively thin volumes. Bullion continues to see broad support around USD $1,320, while should weakness continue, expectations are that interest between USD $1,300 - $1,310 will be supportive to restrict further declines. Focus tonight turns to the SNB and BOE monetary policy announcements, while today in the U.S. all eyes will be on the inflation report.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Friday 8 Sep 2017

MACRO: U.S. stocks slipped on Thursday after banking stocks took a hit from declining rates. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped -22.86 points, or -0.10%, to 21,784.78, the S&P500 inched down -0.44 of a point, or -0.02%, to 2,465.10 and the NASDAQ crept up +4.555 points, or +0.07%, to 6,397.869. The best performing sector on the day was Healthcare (+1.1%), while Teleco's collapsed (-2.1%). European equities rose as the ECB left monetary policy unchanged and Euro-zone growth figures showed a modest improvement. The FTSE Euro First Index gained +3.36 points, or +0.23% to 1,473.20 and the EuroStoxx 600 Index ticked up +1.0 point, or +0.27% to 374.95. Regionally, the DAX improved +0.67% to 12,296.63, the FTSE100 added +0.58% to 7,396.98 and the CAC40 inched +0.26% higher to 5,114.62. Oil futures were little changed, WTI off -$0.03, or -0.06%, to US$49.13 a barrel, as the recovery from Hurricane Harvey stalled at the same time Hurricane Irma threatens to disrupt the sector in Florida. The outlook for demand from refineries remains unknown, with damage still being assessed, although some analysts are predicting damage to the crude oil market may be greater than expected. EIA data showed inventories of crude oil jumped by 4.58 million barrels last week, much greater than expected. The dollar continued its slide with the DXY falling to its lowest levels since January 2015 (91.405). EUR/USD surged as Draghi hinted at starting to reduce the ECB's bond buying program, USD/JPY continues to slip to touch a low of 108.05 and AUD/USD is now comfortably sitting above 0.8000. Yields across the globe fell yesterday, with the U.S. 2-year yield relinquishing -3.81bps to 1.264% and the 10-year down -6.24bps to 2.042%. In data, final euro area Q2 2017 GDP was as expected, at +0.6% QoQ, although the annual rate edged up to +2.3% YoY which marks the the highest since Q1 2011. Initial U.S. jobless claims rose to a two year high of +298k (+236k prior), reportedly almost exclusively due to Hurricane Harvey. The ECB maintained rates and upgraded its growth forecast this year by +0.3% to 2.2%, with ECB president Mario Draghi noting that there has yet to be a convincing uptrend in core inflation. During the press conference after the release, Draghi’s first statement was about the strength and broadness of growth, which helped maintain EUR gains. His second statement was about the EUR, but it was targeted at “volatility” rather than strength. Notably, when considering the EUR on a broad basket basis, the appreciation has not been as sharp. He later acknowledged strength, but seemed not concerned. Draghi noted that “financial conditions have tightened”, but “are still broadly supportive.” On QE, he said that they have had “very preliminary discussions” on various scenarios (length, size). The bulk of QE decisions will probably be taken in October (ECB meets 26 Oct).

PRECIOUS: Bullion endured whippy trade on Thursday, in particular around the ECB announcement as the recent USD depreciation accelerated. Early Asian demand kept price action buoyant above USD $1,330, however the market lacked the impetus required to see gold re-test a break of USD $1,340 after recent moves through the level failed to consolidate. A mild bid out of China supported a move back above USD $1,335, while early currency flows from Europe saw the greenback under pressure as bullion once again pushed toward USD $1,340. ECB president Draghi's comments saw the euro extend its recent gains, making a sustained break above 1.20 to drive broader USD weakness and facilitate a sustained move above USD $1,340 for bullion, while interest out of New York kept price action buoyant into the close to end toward the session high. Against the recent trend, ETF's saw outflows of 27k ounces on Thursday. Following a subdued start to Asian trade on Friday, gold turned sharply higher following the USD/CNH fix. After fixing higher at 6.5005 the currency pair collapsed to 6.4520, seeing the on-shore premium markedly higher and with it bullion toward USD $1,355. Late Asian trade saw gold surge to a USD $1,357.50 high following reports of a magnitude 8.1 earthquake striking off the Pacific coast of Mexico. A break through USD $1,356 indicates a bullish break of the uptrend from the December low and this level will be key to instigating a push toward the June 2016 high of USD $1,375. Levels to watch today on the top-side include the aforementioned USD $1,356 and USD $1,375, while initial support sits broadly around USD $1,348 - $1,350 and below this USD $1,340. From a geopolitical perspective, bullion is likely to see support into Friday's close as participants position themselves for a potential North Korean missile test this Saturday on the rouge state's Foundation Day. Data releases today includes U.K. industrial/manufacturing production, U.K. trade balance and U.S. wholesale inventories.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Monday 4 Sep 2017

MACRO: Tensions in North Korea have escalated further over the weekend following reports that the rouge state tested a hydrogen bomb on Sunday. The detonation is the sixth nuclear test since 2006 and has been estimated to be approximately ten times the strength of the most recent test in September last year. The explosion was heralded by a magnitude 6.3 earthquake at a depth of around zero meters, about 10km from North Korea's Punggye-ri nuclear test site and was felt across in the border in China. North Korean media reported the test as a "perfect success" and it is thought the hydrogen bomb tested is capable to being mounted on one of the recently tested ICBM's. World powers have lined up to condemn the test, with U.S. President Donald Trump labelling the provocative actions of the hermit state as "hostile and dangerous", while U.S. Defence Secretary Jim Mattis noted that "Any threat to the United States or its territories, including Guam or our allies, will be met with a massive military response, a response both effective and overwhelming,"

Nonfarm payrolls released in the U.S. on Friday showed job creation was softer than expected during August. Payrolls increased +156k (exp: +180k) to follow a downwardly revised +189k (prev: +209k) during July, while June was revised lower to +210k from +231k previously. The Unemployment rate surprised, increasing to 4.4% (exp: 4.3%) from 4.3% prior, while the broader 'U-6' measure of unemployment and underemployment, which includes those who have stopped looking and those in part-time jobs who want full-time positions, held at 8.6%. Wage growth printed underneath expectations during August, with average hourly earnings increasing +0.1% MoM (exp: +0.2%) from +0.3% previously, while on an annualised basis wages held at +2.5% YoY (exp: +2.6%). Markit's manufacturing PMI improved to 52.8 (exp: 52.5) from 52.5 previously, while the ISM manufacturing index jumped to the highest level since 2011 at 58.8 (exp: 56.5) from 56.3 previously. U.S. equities ended higher on Friday as the August jobs report dampened the expected pace of interest rate increases. The DJIA tacked on +0.18% to end the session at 21,987.56 points, as big players such as General Electric (+2.4%) and Chevron (+1.06%) helped to support the bourse higher. The S&P 500 was buoyed by gains to energy (+0.81%) and materials (+0.63%) to end +0.20% higher at 2,476.55 points, while the Nasdaq tacked on +0.10% to 6,435.331 points after recovering from early declines. Oil futures ended mixed in New York on Friday, unable to climb back into positive territory on a weekly basis following volatility around Hurricane Harvey. WTI added around +0.1% to USD $47.30 per barrel, while Brent crude pulled back -0.2% to USD $52.75 per barrel. Treasury yields edged higher on Friday as prices declined, seeing the 10-year 3.5bps higher to around 2.157%, while the 2-year added 1.6bps to 1.345%. European markets posted gains on Friday following a report that the ECB will likely wait until December to announce their tapering plans. The German Dax led regional gains to add +0.72% as a softening euro buoyed exporters, while the Stoxx Europe 600 ended +0.60% higher. In the U.K. the FTSE 100 tacked on +0.11% as stronger than expected manufacturing data supported the bourse.

PRECIOUS: Gold saw strength on Friday following the softer than expected payrolls data out of the U.S., briefly trading as high at USD $1,329.50 in whippy trade around the figure, before consolidating around USD $1,325 into the close. Bullion had a generally quiet lead-up into the U.S. session, as participants were more than happy to take a back-seat into the jobs data. The yellow metal touched the session high on the payrolls release, however soon reversed these gains before steadily pushing higher into the close. Underpinning the move higher were a further 500k ounces of inflows into ETF's on Friday (one of the largest gains this year), while the latest COTR data shows further increases to long positioning into the end of August. The weekend developments on the Korean peninsula saw gold sharply higher during Asian trade on Monday, underpinned by the metals safe haven demand and a softer greenback. Bullion gapped higher on the open to touch a USD $1,337 high in early pricing, running into resistance around the U.S. Presidential Election high print (Nov 2016), before easing in early Chinese trade as the on-shore premium relative to London gold eased to around USD $2. A relatively muted Asian afternoon session gave way to early bids out of Europe, seeing the metal toward USD $1,338 to retest a break of the early session move. Expectations are that the precious complex will continue to see support as uncertainty drives safe-haven demand, while further speculative long interest on Comex is likely and ETF demand should underpin broad support. The Labor Day holiday in the U.S. today is likely to temper interest following the early session moves, while from a data standpoint we do not see anything that may influence bullion's direction. Key resistance for gold comes in toward USD $1,350 and then the 2016 high print of USD $1,375. With regards to the remainder of the precious complex, palladium continues to outperform and move ever-closer to platinum. The white metal gained nearly +5% on Friday in New York to end the session around USD $980 as the continued supply deficit underpinned gains, while further interest during Asian trade today saw the metal within a whisker of USD $1,000.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Wed 13 Sep 2017

MARKETS/MACRO: The USD retained its firmer tone overnight as US bond yields continued to edge higher and some of the post-ECB rally in EUR/USD unwound. U.S. equities rose to fresh all time highs yesterday as financials received a boost from the rising yields, however price action was tempered somewhat by selling pressure in the Tech sector. Wall Street also digested some positive rhetoric from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on tax reform. The Dow Jones gained +61.49 points, or +0.28%, to 22,118.86, the S&P500 rallied +8.37 points, or +0.34%, to 2,496.48 and the Nasdaq inched up +22.018 points, or +0.34%, to 6,454.282. The best performing sector was Teleco's (+1.4%) and the worse performing sector was Utilities (-1.75%). European equities rose for a fifth straight day with financials in the drivers seat spurring markets higher. The FTSE Euro First 300 index accelerated +8.08 points, or +0.54% to 1,499.27 and the Euro Stoxx 600 jumped 1.99 points, or +0.52% to 381.42. Regionally the DAX increased +0.4%, CAC40 +0.62%, while the FTSE100 lagged, down -0.17%. Crude prices pushed higher (WTI +$0.33, +0.69%, to US$48.4 a barrel) as news of an extension of the current production cut agreement continued to swirl around the market. It emerged overnight that OPEC is discussing the possibility of extending the current agreement for at least another three months (end of Q2 - 2018). This came as the group released its latest estimate of supply and demand fundamentals in the global market, where tt raised its forecast for demand in 2018, however it only expects the market will require an additional 400k b/d in 2018 to 32 mio b/d. It also reported that OPEC production for August had fallen 79k b/d to 32.75 mio b/d. Prices were also buoyed by reports that refiners in Texas are continuing to ramp up after the hurricane.

The U.S July JOLTS report came in at a record high, which, coupled from comments from US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin expressing confidence about getting tax reform through, underpinned expectations that solid US growth will continue. The Labour Department reported that job openings edged up to 6.17 million in July from 6.12 million in June. It’s the first time openings have topped 6 million for two straight months since the government began keeping track in 2000. In July, hiring was led by companies involved in services such as transportation and warehousing, reflecting an ongoing shift toward online shopping. U.S August NFIB small business optimism lifted too (105.3 vs 104.8 expected) as sentiment amongst the small business community remains high. Expectations for sales rose, the Capital Spending Index increased and selling prices firmed. The Headline Index is hovering around post-GFC highs. Meanwhile in the UK, August CPI exceeded expectations coming in at +0.6% MoM (+0.5% expected, -0.1% prior), and core CPI showed a broad based rise to +2.5% YoY (+2.7% expected), improving on the +2.4% a month earlier. The headline numbers are within the levels anticipated by the BoE, but the data gave GBP support ahead of this week’s BoE meeting (where no change is expected).

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said he is "hopeful" that tax reform would be accomplished by year's end, adding the administration is thinking about backdating any reform to January 1. Backdating "is still something we are considering and it would be a big boon for the economy," he said. This certainly helped to prop up the risk on move. Elsewhere, President Trump and congressional law-makers signalled that more steps need to be taken to rein in North Korea's rapidly developing nuclear program despite the United Nations Security Council's unanimous vote to pass additional sanctions on the rogue nation. Trump noted the 15-0 UN vote during a meeting with Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak, but said they are "just another very small step" and "not a big deal". He also suggested that he doesn't know "if it will have any impact". Trump added that the sanctions pale in comparison to "what ultimately will have to happen".

PRECIOUS: Gold managed to bounce off the late European lows to close just off the days highs on Tuesday ($1331.20/60). The yellow metal opened slightly higher yesterday in Asia, pushing up towards $1329 but ultimately failing on any follow through interest, failing to get back through $1330. Early Tokyo based selling saw us drop back a few dollars towards $1325 on fairly modest volume compared to what has been seen over the past week or so. Chinese banks were buying once the SGE session commenced on the back of the lower prices, as widely expected. It was not in a significant size however and the offering on Ecomex was enough to offset the Chinese demand. Gold remained range-bound into the afternoon as a result, hovering just above $1325. London didn't do a great deal, the gold and silver continuing to track sideways throughout. Throughout the U.S day, despite the dollar and yields grinding their way north, gold continued to slowly rise with some macro demand and longer term players looking to book some profits. In the end, the metal managed to hit a peak of $1331.75 before closing just off this - an admirable performance given the 'risk on' market conditions.

A bit of action was witnessed on the market open this morning, with a few stops being tripped right on the open in thin liquidity. Stops just above the Tuesday high ($1332) were tripped and the market quickly jumped to just below $1335 before just as sharply receding back to $1333. Following that, gold proceeded to edge lower with some early Japanese and Chinese traders on the offer as a result of the stronger dollar. The yellow metal slowly ticked lower over the next few hours with moderate 2 way volume trading through Ecomex and the SGE. Silver pushed higher in line with gold right on the open but was quickly sold into above $17.90, with some large visible offers on Ecomex capping proceedings. PGM's have traded flat so far and the volumes have been tiny. In other markets, equities are currently mixed the Nikkei up +0.5%, while the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng are lower at -0.1% and -0.35% a piece. USD is a little softer vs the majors with flows remaining light throughout the day. USDJPY is still holding above 110, but we have tested lower on a few occasions already. On the data calendar today look out for U.K employment data, EuroZone industrial production and U.S. PPI. We expect the precious complex to continue to consolidate for now and look to buy dips $1310-20.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 7 Sep 2017

MACRO: President Trump surprised his fellow Republicans and struck a deal with Democrats on Wednesday, extending the U.S. debt ceiling to provide Government funding until December 15. In a meeting between congressional leaders of both parties at the White House, President Trump agreed to the Democrat's requested three month extension, overruling Republican's and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin who were seeking an extended term. In keeping with the 'surprise' theme, the Bank of Canada shocked the market on Wednesday by increasing interest rates to +1%. The central bank increased rates by 25bps to follow a hike in July, while leaving the door open for further increases this year. U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman, Stanley Fischer announced his resignation on Wednesday, citing personal reasons in a letter to president Donald Trump. The U.S. ISM Non-manufacturing index increased to 55.3 (exp: 55.6) from 53.9 previously during August. Equities in the U.S. ended trade higher on Wednesday, buoyed by the developments in Washington and a lack of news out of the Korean peninsula. The DJIA ended trade +0.25% higher at 21,807.64 points as strong performances to Home Depot (+2.37%) and Exxon Mobile (+2.07%) helped support the bourse higher. The S&P 500 saw strength from energy (+1.64%) lead nine of eleven major sectors higher as the bourse gained +0.31% to 2,465.54 points, while the Nasdaq Composite tacked on +0.28% to 6,393.314 points. Oil futures pushed higher on Wednesday as renewed demand support prices following the re-opening of refineries after Hurricane Harvey. WTI found interest in Europe and the U.S. following subdued Asian trade, adding just over +1.1% to settle at USD $49.16 per barrel, while Brent crude tacked on +1.5% to USD $54.20 per barrel. European equities held broadly unchanged during trade on Wednesday, with participants awaiting the all important ECB meeting on Thursday. The Stoxx Europe 600 crept just +0.06% higher, while a +3.5% gain to new car registrations in Germany buoyed auto makers to take the German Dax to a +0.5% return. The U.K. FTSE 100 underperformed on Wednesday, weighed down by a stronger pound to book a -0.3% decline to 7,354.13 points.

PRECIOUS: Gold saw some of its risk premium wiped away during U.S. trade on Wednesday, sliding below USD $1,340 as immediate concerns over the U.S. debt ceiling subsided. A strong close in New York on Tuesday saw participants taking profit in early Asian trade on Wednesday, pressuring gold back below USD $1,340 as Tokyo turned sellers. Underlying physical interest out of China restricted further declines into European hours, before buyers once again regained the ascendency to push bullion higher. News out of Washington of an agreement on Government funding saw U.S. yields higher and gold lower in New York, collapsing to a USD $1,331.80 session low to book a -0.4% decline. ETF's once again added to stocks on Wednesday, recording just over 30k ounces of inflows. Asian trade on Thursday saw bullion struggle for direction throughout the majority of trade, well supported toward USD $1,330, however unable to make headway higher until European participants filtered in. The yellow metal was once again broadly supported by interest out of China, bouncing off the session low as the far East opened for business, before taking a further leg higher late in the session as a bid euro into today's ECB meeting weighed upon the greenback. Expectations are that the upcoming ECB meeting will provide direction for bullion (more so the USD) in lieu of headlines out of the Korean peninsula, however shocks to the down-side should the central bank underwhelm will likely be limited to support toward USD $1,325 - $1,330. Silver once again failed to break above USD $18 during New York trade on Wednesday, however rebounded into European hours today to keep within striking distance of the figure. Data releases today include Eurozone GDP, the all important ECB meeting, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims and Bloomberg U.S. consumer confidence.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Friday 1 Sep 2017

MACRO: Initial jobless claims in the U.S. inched just 1,000 higher to 236,000 (exp: 238,000) during the week ended August 26. The weekly print saw the four-week moving average ease by 1,250 to 236,750, while continuing claims fell by 12,000 to 1.942 million (exp: 1.951 million) during the week ended August 19. Consumer spending in the U.S. increased less than expected during July, printing at +0.3% MoM (exp: +0.4%) to follow an upwardly revised +0.2% gain in June (prev: +0.1%), while personal income increased +0.4% MoM (exp: +0.3%) from a flat read previously. Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) edged +0.1% MoM higher during July, while on an annualised basis declined to +1.4% YoY (exp: +1.4%) from +1.5% previously, marking the smallest gain since December 2015. Pending home sales in the U.S. unexpectedly declined during July, sliding -0.8% MoM (exp: +0.3%) to follow a downwardly revised +1.3% (prev: +1.5%) the month prior. July marked the fourth decline in five months as supply constraints continue to weigh upon sales. Equity markets in the U.S. ended the month on a positive note as each of the three major bourse's closed higher on Thursday. A second consecutive session rally within the biotechnology space helped the Nasdaq Composite +0.95% higher, notching a fresh record closing level of 6,428.662 points on the way to a +1.3% monthly return. The DJIA tacked on +0.25% to 21,948.10 points for a +0.3% gain over the month, while strength across healthcare (+1.69%) and materials (+0.83%) led nine of eleven sectors higher to see the S&P 500 to a +0.57% gain and +0.1% higher on the month. The greenback traded under pressure on Thursday to reverse early European gains in New York, weighed down by comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin who noted that a weaker currency may be good for trade. The DXY index ended the session around -0.35% lower to see EUR/USD reclaim the 1.19 handle and USD/JPY below 110.00. Oil futures reversed recent weakness on Thursday as refineries compete for supplies. WTI jumped +3.2% to end at USD $47.10 per barrel, however ended the month -5.9% lower, while Brent crude surged +4% to USD $52.80 per barrel and limit the monthly decline to -0.5%. European equity markets performed strongly on Thursday, as support from the resources sector underpinned a bid tone following upbeat manufacturing data out of China. The Stoxx Europe 600 jumped +0.77%, however it wasn't enough to drag the bourse into positive territory on a monthly basis, with the index ending -1.1% lower over August as a stronger euro continues to weigh upon exporters. The German Dax ended the session +0.44% higher as jobless claims fell 5,000 in August and the unemployment rate held at a record low of 5.7%, while in the U.K. the FTSE 100 surged +0.89% as the big miners welcomed the latest Chinese data and the pound softened.

PRECIOUS: Big day for the precious as the flattening yield curve and escalating tension with North Korea supported the markets. Gold was heavy from the open in Asia, as producer sales weighed on the market. There was a sharp sell off that had the market testing the $1300 support just before lunch, this was swiftly rejected though with gold consolidating around $1302-1303 for the Asian afternoon. London were on the offer early and took gold back up to $1307 as the US dollar eased against the euro. The yellow took off on the NY open, prompted by the weaker PCE data and fuelled by a flattening of the US yield curve, and did not stop until the high of $1323 just prior to the close. Silver had a big day, the grey metal climbed over 30 off the low to finish at $17.56. Platinum once again tested the psychological $1000 barrier it crossed earlier in the week but met with strong resistance, while the upward move for palladium was a little more muted. The Philadelphia gold and silver index rose 2.23%. In todays trading, gold has remained within a tight range between $1318 and $1321 ahead of tonight's NFP release, the yellow metal is at $1318.50 as I write. Silver is drifting slightly, the grey metal is at $17.49 as I write. PGMs are flat.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.