DAILY REPORT : Monday 24 July 2017

MACRO: A lack of economic releases on Friday saw investors turn focus instead to corporate earnings, with soft results from General Electric (-2.92%) weighing upon the broader market. The DJIA ended the session -0.15% lower at 21,580.07 points to see the bourse end the week -0.3% lower. The S&P 500 (-0.04%) saw weakness across energy (-0.88%) on the back of softer oil prices to end the session marginally lower, however was able to hold onto a +0.5% return for the week. The Nasdaq Composite broke ten consecutive gains on Friday after easing -0.04% to follow Thursday's record close, outperforming over the week to end +1.5% higher. Notably the CBOE VIX index printed the second lowest close on record during Friday's session, sliding -2.3% to 9.36. Oil futures slumped during Friday's session ahead of an upcoming meeting of OPEC producers, however did see marginal support following data from Baker Hughes reporting the number of oil rigs in the U.S. eased by 1 to 764. WTI ended the session around -2.5% lower to settle at USD $45.77 per barrel, booking a -2.1% decline for the week. Brent crude meanwhile ended the week below USD $50 per barrel, handing back -2.5% on Friday to settle at USD $48.06 per barrel for a -1.7% weekly decline. A stronger regional currency kept European equities underwater on Friday, while declining oil prices added further fuel to the fire. The Stoxx Europe 600 slumped -1% to 380.16, booking the largest single session fall in close to a month to see the bourse -1.9% lower on a weekly basis. The export heavy (euro sensitive) German Dax ended -1.7% lower, while the French CAC posted a -1.6% fall. Equities in the U.K. followed European markets lower on Friday, weighed down by a higher sterling and weaker energy prices. The FTSE 100 ended trade on Friday -0.5% lower, however still managed to end the week with a +1% gain to book the best weekly performance since late May.

PRECIOUS: The precious complex extended recent gains during Friday's session, breaking through a number of key technical resistance levels on the back of a weaker greenback and a likely short covering rally. Muted price action during Asian trade gave way to interest out of Europe, importantly breaking and consolidating above USD $1,245 leading into U.S. hours. Initial bids out of New York saw stops triggered through the 50 and 100 day moving averages to take bullion through USD $1,250, while the metal continued to grind higher throughout the session to touch a USD $1,256.40 high and book a +0.8% gain. On a weekly basis bullion added over +2% as the USD continued to run lower. Asia kicked off the week on the offer to take gold lower in early session flows, however a break below 111.00 to USD/JPY soon provided the impetus for a move through Friday's high print, seeing bullion briefly above USD $1,257 into Chinese trade. A softer on-shore premium in Shanghai (USD $7) saw gold once again under pressure as the far East opened, however the metal continued to see sustained support underneath USD $1,255 to restrict further declines. Following Friday's positive price action gold will look to consolidate above USD $1,250, with broad support sitting underneath at USD $1,248 - $1,250. Targets on the top-side for gold extend to USD $1,275 - $1,280, while moves beyond this will target the April and June high prints around USD $1,296 - $1,298. Silver finally saw a sustained move through resistance around USD $16.40 on Friday on the back of a weaker greenback, while weak short positioning around the figure likely contributed to the positive price action. The grey metal is encountering some resistance toward USD $16.50, once again testing the figure during Asian trade on Monday following a failed attempt on Friday. The current large short positioning is likely weighing upon the metal, however a sustained move through USD $16.50 to target USD $16.69 should drive short liquidation to support further gains. According to the latest COTR data, surprisingly silver short positioning has increased to a fresh all-time high, however price action toward the end of last week has no doubt seen this open interest reduced. Platinum consolidated Friday's gain during Asian trade today and will look to target USD $950, while palladium continues to slide following two failed attempts of USD $875 in recent weeks and will need to hold USD $830 to restrict a test of the USD $800 handle. Data releases today includes Markit Manufacturing / Services / Composite PMI prints from France, Germany, the Eurozone and the U.S.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 18 July 2017

MACRO: The New York Fed released its Empire State Manufacturing Index on Monday, showing activity in the region softened during July. The index fell to a seasonally adjusted 9.8 (exp: 15.0) to follow June's two year high of 19.8, with new orders, shipments, inventories, delivery times and number of employees all slowing. Equities in the U.S. ended generally unchanged on Monday in quiet trade, as investor's await a number of key quarterly releases. Declines to J.P. Morgan (-0.93%) and IBM (-0.80%) weighed upon the DJIA, seeing the bourse end the session -0.04% lower at 21,629.72 points. The S&P 500 (-0.01%) ended marginally lower at 2,459.14 points, with softness across healthcare (-0.30%) and energy (-0.14%) offsetting gains to utilities (+0.31%) and consumer discretionary (+0.26%). The Nasdaq meanwhile outperformed to end the session +0.03% higher at 6,314.431 points. Oil futures eased on Monday following five consecutive session gains, under pressure following an EIA report noting that it sees a 113,000 barrels per day increase in domestic oil production during August. WTI slipped over -1% to settle just above USD $46 per barrel, while Brent crude handed back -1% to around USD $48.50 per barrel. European markets ended trade on Monday mixed, with mining shares keeping the major bourse's buoyant following positive GDP data out of China. The Stoxx Europe 600 managed to tack on a modest +0.01%, while the German DAX pulled back -0.35% and the French CAC dipped -0.1%. Eurozone CPI data printed in-line with expectations during June, improving to flat MoM (exp: flat) from -0.1% previously, while on an annualised basis CPI held at +1.3% YoY. In the U.K. the FTSE 100 outperformed regionals to add +0.35%, supported by the stronger than expected Chinese data giving miners a boost, while a softer sterling also lifted investor appetite.


PRECIOUS: Gold was able to consolidate and build upon last weeks gains on Monday, retaking the 200 DMA during Asian hours before extending gains on the back of a softer greenback in New York. Asia kicked off the week with a mild bid bias, making light work of resistance around the 200 DMA (USD $1,229.50), however unable to make headway through Friday's New York high print. European trade saw a brief period of weakness test the 200 DMA support, however this soon gave way to further interest once New York opened, pushing the metal to a USD $1,235.90 high for a +0.4% gain. Further downwards pressure on the USD saw gold turn higher during Asian hours on Tuesday, piggybacking on a leg higher to the AUD following the RBA minutes and a reversal to USD/JPY testing 112.00 on news that two more Republican senators had announced their opposition to the Trump administration's healthcare legislation. The Chinese on-shore premium remained around USD $10 throughout the afternoon, broadly supportive to hold the yellow metal around USD $1,238 into European trade. Technically gold will look to hold above the 200 DMA and should see further interest emerge above the figure. Top-side targets extend broadly through USD $1,235 - $1,240 and USD $1,250 beyond this. After breaking above USD $16 in early Asian trade on Monday, silver was able to consolidate above the figure throughout European and U.S. hours, ending the session around +0.6% higher. Asian hours on Tuesday saw a test of Monday's high print leading into European trade, however the grey metal is running into resistance around USD $16.20 and will need to break through this level in the near-term for a momentum driven extension toward USD $16.50. ETF's continue to accumulate the metal, adding a further 1 million ounces on Monday, while interestingly we are seeing a disconnect as speculative positioning in the metal sees shorts at an all-time high. Platinum held a narrow range, however traded with a mild offered bias during Asian hours today, while palladium consolidated Monday's gains to hold above USD $860. Data releases tonight includes U.K. CPI / PPI / RPI, German ZEW survey results, U.S. Import Prices, the U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index and U.S. TIC Flows.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Wed 12 July 2017

MARKETS/MACRO: U.S. stocks were very choppy on Tuesday as traders debated the significance of emails released by Donald Trump Jr on Russia. The Dow, despite having a 160+ point range on the day, was largely unchanged tacking on +0.55 points, or 0%, to 21,409.07. The S&P 500 lost -1.90 points, or -0.08%, to 2,425.53 and the Nasdaq rallied +16.912 points, or +0.27%, to 6,193.305. The best performing sectors were Energy (+0.53%) and Tech (+0.36%), while Financials (-0.68%) and Telcos (-0.67%) struggled. European stocks finished generally lower, as investors took a cautious approach ahead of U.S. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s testimony to Congress. The FTSE Euro First 300 Index slid -10.16 points, or -0.68% to 1490.61 and the Euro Stoxx 600 retreated -0.65%, or -2.49 points to 379.15. Regionally the DAX lost -0.07%, FTSE100 -0.55% and CAC40 -0.48%. August WTI added +$1.31, or +2.95% to US$45.71 a barrel as the EIA cut its forecast for US production in 2018 from just over 10 million barrels a day to 9.9 million. This is the first reduction in estimated US supply for 2018 since the EIA started making predictions for that year in January. The dollar edged broadly lower yesterday as we head into Yellen’s testimony this evening. The USD’s soft tone wasn’t helped by comments from the Fed's Brainard who advocated moving cautiously on further rate hikes. Treasuries rallied and the curve steepened, led by dovish tones from two Fed speakers. The 2y note yield slumped -0.79bps to 1.3751% and the 10y bond yield declined -1.25bps to 2.3605%.

On the data front, job openings in the U.S. decreased -301k to a seasonally adjusted 5.7 million (5.95 million expected) according to the Labour Department in its monthly JOLTS survey. The drop pushed the jobs openings rate to 3.7%, the lowest reading this year, from a nine month high of 3.9% in April. Hiring jumped to 5.47 million from 5.04 million the prior month. There were broad increases in hiring from manufacturing to retail and professional and business services.

Fed Governor Lael Brainard spoke about the normalisation process of central banks, and her comments on the US were on the dovish side (she is a known dove however). She noted that currencies will be more sensitive to interest rate moves compared to balance sheet normalisation. In terms of her current views, she said that, “I consider normalisation of the federal funds rate to be well under way. If the data continues to confirm a strong labour market and firming economic activity, I believe it would be appropriate soon to commence the gradual and predictable process of allowing the balance sheet to run off. Once that process begins, I will want to assess the inflation process closely before making a determination on further adjustments to the federal funds rate in light of the recent softness in core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) inflation. In my view, the neutral level of the federal funds rate is likely to remain close to zero in real terms over the medium term. If that is the case, we would not have much more additional work to do".

PRECIOUS: Gold and silver once again showed some respite from the recent sell-off, posting gains for a second straight session, aided by a sinking USD. Gold opened just under $1215 yesterday and was under steady selling pressure throughout most of the Asian day. USDJPY was firm throughout the morning trading just short of 114.50 which kept the metals on the backfoot. There was a very quick spike higher right around the Tocom open, gold very briefly trading above $1215, although this was met with decent selling from Comex. Throughout the morning the metals continued to slide gold dipping below $1210 around the time Europe walked in and silver edging below $15.50 before steadying back above these respective levels. After a very dreary first half of the day the metals fortunes began to change, with headlines of alleged ties between Donald Trump Jr and Russian officials drawn out in further detail. The president’s oldest son — in a surprise Tuesday tweet — shared what he said was a full email chain from June 2016, detailing his plans to set up a meeting with a Russian government lawyer who was willing to share damaging material about Hillary Clinton. The smoking gun in the email, according to the attorneys, is the wording throughout the emails that Trump Jr. exchanges with a broker for one of his father’s former Russian business partners. At one point, Trump Jr. responds “love it” at the prospect of material that would “incriminate” Clinton. This saw stocks tank and safe-haven assets rally, gold quickly angling from $1210 to $1217. Brainard's dovish comments on Fed rate hikes only helped the cause with the yellow metal pushing up against $1218 for the final hours of the session. Silver followed gold for the most part although was under more selling pressure from China - as longs continued to unwind aggressively on the SGE for a second day. It based just under $15.50 and continued to grind higher into the close, finishing up around $15.80. For gold support sits between $1195 - $1200, close to the March 2017 lows while resistance will be heavy towards the 200 dma ($1230.00).

The dollar sold off this morning which continued to lend support to gold, the metal nudging against the NY highs in the lead up to the Tocom open. Some initial Japanese demand took spot gold through the overnight highs to test $1220. There were some sizeable offers in August Gold however which kept things in check. USDJPY after teetering just beneath 114.00, succumbed to heavy liquidation from leveraged and retail names and it was one direction until the early afternoon, trading as low as 113.32. The slightly lower USDCNY helped to bring a bit of buying back into the SGE after a week characterised by liquidation. Once the exchange opened spot gold lurched through $1220 again although didn't make it that far through touching $1220.20 bid before consolidating between $1218.50-1220.00. Silver popped higher right on the SGE open through $15.90 and maintained a $15.90-95 range for most of the afternoon with some decent volumes going through Comex and the SGE there. In other markets equities were lower the Shanghai Composite -0.2% at time of writing, Nikkei -0.5%, ASX200 -1.0% and the Hang Seng the outlier, currently up +0.8%. USD remains weaker across the board, at this point most dramatically vs the JPY, with USDJPY down -0.45% at 113.42 currently. Crude is flat on the day WTI sitting at $45.77. Ahead today markets will be focused on Yellen's congressional hearing, UK employment, Euro zone industrial production and and the BoC rate decision.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Friday 21 July 2017

MACRO: Initial Jobless Claims in the U.S. eased during the week ended July 15, dipping to 233k (exp: 245k) from 248k previously. The print saw the four-week moving average decline by 2,250 to 243,750, while continuing claims increased 28k to 1.977 million (exp: 1.949 million) during the week ended July 8. The Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook declined to the lowest level since November during July, seeing the index slide to 19.5 (exp: 23.0) from 27.6 previously. The index for employment eased 5 points, however remained positive at 10.8, while the index for business activity jumped to 36.9 from 31.3 previously. The U.S. Leading Index increased to +0.6% in June (exp: +0.4%) from a downwardly revised +0.2% during May (prev: +0.3%). Equities in the U.S. ended mixed in quiet trade on Thursday, with Home Depot (-4.09%) weighing upon the DJIA to the tune of 46 points to have the bourse lower at the close. The DJIA ended the session -0.13% lower at 21,611.78 points to follow a fresh record close the session prior, while declines to materials (-0.83%) and industrials (-0.61%) offset gains to telecoms (+1.41%) too see the S&P 500 inch just -0.02% lower to 2,473.45 points. Meanwhile the Nasdaq Composite outperformed to books its tenth consecutive session gain, closing +0.08% higher at a fresh record close of 6,390.002 points. Oil futures pulled back on Thursday from the six-week high printed the session prior, with investor's turning focus to the upcoming OPEC meeting in Russia on Monday. WTI fell -0.7% to around USD $46.79 per barrel, while Brent crude declined -0.8% to close below USD $50 per barrel. The greenback traded under pressure on Thursday, collapsing over -1% intrasession as the euro ripped to a two-year high following the ECB unchanged rates announcement, even as ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to continue the central bank's asset purchase program. Draghi discussed the economic recovery of the region, however noted that it has yet to translate into higher consumer prices, "Basically inflation is not where we want it to be and where it should be" he said. The bank held back from discussions over the timing of reigning in quantitative easing, surprising some market participants who had expected some indication as to the path toward the normalisation of monetary policy. Markets across Europe ended Thursday's session lower, weighed down by a stronger euro and a dovish Mario Draghi. The Stoxx Europe 600 ended the session -0.38% down after trading as much as +0.5% higher intrasession, while the German Dax eased just -0.04% as exporters suffered. In the U.K. the FTSE 100 climbed +0.77% to book the highest close in four-weeks, supported by strong corporate results and a softer sterling.

PRECIOUS: A mix of geopolitical risks and a leg lower to the USD supported bullion on Thursday, turning bid in New York to book the highest close since late June. The metal survived early European weakness that tested support toward USD $1,235, before receiving a boost on the ECB related headlines that sent the euro soaring as high as 1.1658 from a session low of 1.1480. The metal saw a short squeeze through USD $1,245 in New York to touch a USD $1,248 high, before running into offers toward the 100 and 50 day moving averages around USD $1,248 and USD $1,249.30 respectively. Afternoon pricing saw gold ease back from the session high print as the greenback clawed back ground, closing around USD $1,244 to book a +0.5% session gain. Asia traded with a modest bid bias on Friday, seeing firm interest around New York closing levels in early flows, before turning higher in afternoon pricing as the euro strengthened. China continued to support bullion, however with the on-shore premium easing marginally to around USD $8 it was left to regional physical and spec interest to provide buoyancy, with volumes through Comex notably elevated. The dollar weakness should continue to support gold around current levels and we look to a break through the 100 and 50 day moving averages as a pivot point for further gains. Support for the metal is evident toward USD $1,243, while below this USD $1,235 should restrict declines. Silver was able to take out Wednesday's high print during New York trade on Thursday, recovering from an early break through the USD $16.20 support level to print a USD $16.41 high. The grey metal is encountering some resistance toward USD $16.40, once again testing the figure during Asian trade on Friday, however unable to break through. The current large short positioning is likely weighing upon the metal, however a sustained move through USD $16.40 to target USD $16.69 may drive some liquidation to support further gains. Data releases today include Canadian CPI and Retail Sales.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Monday 17 July 2017

MACRO: Consumer prices in the U.S. held unchanged MoM during June (exp: +0.1%), largely a reflection of softer gasoline prices. On an annualised basis inflation eased to +1.6% (exp: +1.7%) from +1.9% previously, down from a five-year high of +2.7% just five months ago (February). After excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core CPI increased +0.1% MoM (exp: +0.2%) from +0.1%, seeing the annualised print hold at +1.7% (exp: +1.7%). Retail Sales in the U.S. declined -0.2% MoM during June (exp: +0.1%) to follow an upwardly revised -0.1% (prev: -0.3%) the month prior. June marked the second consecutive monthly decline and matched the largest decline this year. Excluding autos retail sales declined -0.2% MoM (exp: +0.2%), while excluding autos and gas sales dropped -0.1% MoM (exp: +0.4%). Industrial Production in the U.S. outpaced expectations during June, jumping +0.4% (exp: +0.3%) to follow an upwardly revised +0.1% gain during May. June's positive print was the fifth consecutive monthly gain and was supported by a +0.2% increase to manufacturing. The University of Michigan reported its preliminary U.S. Consumer Confidence read for July eased to 93.1 (exp: 95.0) to follow June's 95.1. Current conditions increased to 113.2 from 112.5 in June, while expectations weighed upon the headline figure, sliding to 80.2 from 83.9 previously. Equity markets in the U.S. surged higher on Friday following the soft inflation data and mixed corporate earnings. The DJIA added +0.39% to 21,637.74 points, in the process marking the third consecutive record close and the 25th record close for 2017. Strong performances to real estate (+1.06%) and information technology (+0.89%) helped propel the S&P 500 +0.47% higher to a record close of 2,459.27 points, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped +0.61% to book its sixth consecutive session gain, however falling just shy of its record closing level. Oil futures turned higher on Friday following reports of supply issues out of Nigeria and an increase in forecasted crude demand by the International Energy Agency. WTI added +1% to settle around USD $46.50 per barrel and end the week over +5% higher, while Brent crude gained +1% to take the weekly return to +4.7%. In currency majors the greenback lost ground on Friday following the U.S. inflation report, seeing the DXY dollar index fall -0.6%. European markets ended trade on Friday mixed, weighed down by financial stocks following softer than expected earnings results out of the U.S. The German Dax ended -0.08% lower while gains to commodity related companies helped offset a -0.7% fall to the Stoxx Europe 600 bank index to see the bourse end +0.18% higher. In the U.K. the FTSE 100 saw strength to the pound weigh upon equities, seeing the bourse hand back -0.47%.

PRECIOUS: Gold turned higher on Friday on the back of the soft U.S. inflation data, surging through the 200 DMA around USD $1,230 to end the session around +1% higher. The yellow metal had difficulty getting through USD $1,220 throughout Asian and European trade, with offers on Comex restricting gains leading into the U.S. data releases. A leg lower to the USD following the U.S. CPI release provided the impetus for a break above the recent range, taking gold as high as USD $1,233.45, before easing back below USD $1,230 into the close. The latest COTR showed further decreases to gold positioning, falling by 3.5 million ounces or just over -33%, as longs declined by -3.3% and shorts added over +16%. Gold traded with a mild bid bias during Asian hours on Monday, importantly breaking back above the 200 DMA in early session flows and notably seeing solid regional physical interest. Early Chinese interest saw gold to the session high of USD $1,232.20, while the remainder of the session saw the metal locked within a narrow range. The short-term key for the metal will be holding around the 200 DMA, with targets extending to USD $1,235 - $1,240 and USD $1,250 beyond this. After breaking above USD $16 on Friday in New York, silver spent Asian trade on Monday consolidating above the figure. Early Chinese interest saw the session high of USD $16.08 printed, however the metal lacked follow through buying and was unable to push above Friday's New York high print. Much like gold, silver needs to hold the near-term support of USD $16 for a further leg higher, with top-side targets extending as far as USD $16.50. Data releases tonight include Eurozone CPI and U.S. Empire Manufacturing.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

 

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 11 July 2017

MACRO: Consumer Credit in the U.S. expanded during May, rising to a seasonally adjusted 5.8% or USD $18.41 billion (exp: USD $13.50 billion), while April saw an upwards revision to USD $12.929 billion (prev: USD $8.197 billion). Revolving credit such as credit cards increased 8.7%, while non-revolving credit including auto and student loans added 4.7%. Equity markets in the U.S. opened the week with mixed results as investor's await earnings season. After recovering from early session weakness the DJIA pared gains late in the session to end just -0.03% lower at 21,408.52 points, while gains across technology (+0.82%) and materials (+0.62%) helped to support the S&P 500 +0.09% higher to 2,427.43 points. The renewed interest in the technology sector helped to underpin a +0.38% gain to the Nasdaq Composite. Oil futures managed to book modest gains on Monday, supported by news that Libya and Nigeria have been invited to join OPEC's meeting with other oil producers later this month. Both countries in recent times have increased oil production markedly, undermining the efforts of OPEC to limit production and ease the global supply glut. Following soft European pricing, WTI turned higher in New York to add around +0.3% and settle at USD $44.40 per barrel. Treasury yields in the U.S. eased back on Monday following recent gains, led by remarks from central bankers in Europe questioning the timing of the ECB's move toward normalisation. Softer 10-year yields out of Germany and France saw the U.S. following suit, with the 10-year yield cut 2.1bps to 2.371%. Markets across Europe turned higher on Monday, led by strong exports out of Germany and further strength to technology stocks. Exports out of Germany jumped +1.4% during May, the fifth consecutive monthly increase as demand from Asia, predominately China increased. The positive data release helped the German Dax end +0.46% higher, while the Stoxx Europe 600 added +0.38%. In the U.K. equities were supported by China's recent CPI release, underpinning a move higher in the big miners. The FTSE 100 ended the session +0.26% higher at 7,370.03 points.

PRECIOUS: Gold received some respite during U.S. hours on Monday, however not before the metal was ask to withstand a test toward USD $1,200 in Europe. Asian interest saw gold skew marginally to the downside, however bids on Comex around USD $1,210 kept the price action buoyant for the majority of the session. It wasn't until late in Asia that we saw a further leg lower, firstly moving through mild resistance at USD $1,210, while Friday's low print provided a brief period of support before offers overran the level. It was a steady grind higher for the remainder of the session, punctuated by a brief period of volatility leading into New York. Gold closed the session on a relatively positive note, consolidating back above USD $1,210, while further ETF outflows weighed upon further gains, with around 114k ounces of gold sold. Asia saw muted early session interest on Tuesday, with healthy underlying bids on Comex keeping price action buoyant toward US $1,215, albeit within a narrow range throughout the morning. A sharp spike leading into Shanghai trade saw the session high of USD $1,216.30 printed, while the metal spent the remainder of the session sliding back toward support around USD $1,210 leading into European trade. We continue to see interest around USD $1,210 restrict further weakness, while should this be broken we look to broad interest around USD $1,200 - $1,205. Silver saw a relief rally in New York on Monday as bargain hunters piled into the metal following a USD $15.20 low print in early Europe. Offers around USD $15.50 kept the metal underwater leading into U.S. hours, however the resistance soon gave way to see a USD $15.73 high, impressively ending the session above the Asian open. The grey metal pulled back from New York closing levels during Asian trade on Tuesday, seeing offers out of China test toward the USD $15.50 pivot point. We are seeing interest in the grey metal re-emerge following the recent decline, with support around USD $15.50 the short term key. Data releases tonight include U.S. Small Business Optimism, Wholesale Inventories and JOLTS Job Openings.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 20 July 2017

MACRO: Fresh records for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq as US equities finish higher amid a slew of positive earnings reports and stronger than expected housing data. The Dow added 66.02 points, or 0.31%, to 21,640.75, the S&P 500 rose 13.22 points, or 0.54%, to 2,473.83, and the Nasdaq advanced 40.74 points, or 0.64%, to 6,385.04. The energy (+1.40%) and materials (+1.09%) sectors led a broad advance. European shares were higher also, The EuroSTOXX put on 2.96 points, or 0.8%, to 385.54, the German DAX rose 21.66, or 0.17%, to 12,432.50, the London FTSE 100 gained 40.69, or 0.55%, to 7,358.0. In the currency markets, the US dollar has seen a modest rebound off 10 month lows on Wednesday's more robust economic data, the US dollar index rising 0.23% to 94.82. The EUR traded down to 1.1512 ahead of Thursday's ECB meeting but still remains very close to the 2017 high, while USD/JPY traded up to 112.14. US treasury yields were higher as the strength in equities sparked a sell-off in bonds, the 2-year note yield increased 0.83 bps to 1.356%, the 10-year bond yield ticked up 1.06 bps to 2.2678%. In commodities news, oil markets were higher on reports that Saudi Arabia may cut crude exports by a further 1 million barrels per day, Brent firmed 1.74% to $49.69 while WTI added 1.51% to $47.13. Base metals were broadly lower, with zinc (-1.68%) leading the losses. In US economic data, residential housing starts rose 8.3% to an annualised rate of 1.22M in June from 1.122M in May. The annual rate well exceeds economist's expectation of 1.163M and the increase arrests a 3 month slide in new home starts. Building permits, an indicator of future construction, rose 7.4% to an annualised rate of 1.25M. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei sits at +0.58%, the Shanghai composite is at +0.17%, the Hang Seng at +0.30%, and the ASX S&P 200 at +0.53%. On the economic calendar tonight we have the Philly Fed Index, weekly jobless claims, and leading economic indicators out of the US; with consumer confidence, and the all important ECB interest rate decision coming out of the Eurozone.

PRECIOUS: Range-bound session as strength in US equities weighs on the precious. Gold came under pressure during Asian hours as a trimming of the SGE premium to $8-9 prompted good onshore selling and move below $1240. The London AM session saw the day's low of $1236 followed by a rebound to the high of $1243 as USD/JPY started to slide. The market was unable to overcome the resting orders around Tuesdays high. The yellow metal tested the $1240 level again during NY trading but found enough support to hang on close at that figure. Silver's trading mirrored gold through the session, sold in Asia before a rebound off the low during London AM and close all but flat in NY. We did, however, see the grey metal push through yesterday's two week high to reach $16.32. Palladium spiked to very close to the month high at $870 before a dramatic sell off during NY hours saw the metal finish in negative territory at $856. Platinum closed $6 lower at $918 following a range-bound session. the Philadelphia gold and silver index added 0.26%. The SPDR gold trust holdings fell 0.65% to 816.12 metric tonnes. In today's trading, the greenback continues to climb off that 10 month low with USD/JPY trading back above 112. The firming dollar is putting pressure on gold, after a brief squeeze to today's high of 1242.10 the yellow metal drifted close to yesterday's lows at $1237.50. The SGE premium remains the same as yesterday at $8-9 above loco London and we are seeing a similar level of selling out of China. The metal sits at $1239.20 as I write. Silver market movements are again in sync with gold today and remaining influenced by the dollar's movement against the yen. We saw the high of $16.30 before a consolidation around yesterday's lows. The grey metal is at $16.20 as I write. PGM's have been range-bound today, platinum and palladium currently at $916 and $853 respectively.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Friday 14 July 2017

MACRO: US equities were higher as the Dow posted fresh record highs. The Dow added 20.95 points, or 0.10%, to 21,553.09, the S&P 500 rose 4.58 points, or 0.19%, to 2,447.83, and Nasdaq advanced 13.27 points, or 0.21%, to 6,274.44. There were wins for financials (+0.61%) and energy (+0.44%) while telcos (-0.57%) and utilities (-0.35%) led the losses. European shares were mostly higher, The EuroSTOXX put on 1.24 points, or 0.3%, to 386.14, the German DAX rose 14.75, or 0.12%, to 12,623.00, the London FTSE 100 slipped 3.49, or 0.05%, to 7,351.00. Some volatility in the currency markets, the US dollar index rode the ups and downs during the day to finish flat at 95.765 the EUR traded down to 1.1376 (from the intra-day high of 1.1452), while USD/JPY traded up to 113.45 after dipping below 113 a few times during the session. US treasury yields were lower as markets continue to digest the dovish testimony from Yellen, the 2-year note yield lost 1.63 bps to 1.3592%, the 10-year bond yield declined 2.49 bps to 2.3426%. In commodities news, oil markets were higher as WTI rose for a fourth straight session, adding 1.23% to $46.05. Brent gained 1.36% to $48.39. Base metals were mixed with aluminium (+1.8%) the best performer and zinc (-1.04%) leading the laggards. In US economic news, Initial jobless claims fell by 3k to a seasonally adjusted 247k in the week ending July 8, this marks the 123rd straight week that claims remained below 300k which is the level that indicates a healthy labour market. Continuing jobless claims increased to 1.95M The producer price index rose by 1% in June, while the year on year increase has slowed from 2.4% to 2%. The data suggests inflation has tapered somewhat after rising steadily through 2016 and early 2017, and is particularly interesting in the light of Yellen's commentary on Wednesday and today. Investors will have a keen eye on tonight's CPI release. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei sits at +0.09%, the Shanghai composite is at -0.14%, the Hang Seng at -0.01%, and the ASX S&P 200 closed at +0.49%. On the economic calendar tonight we have CPI, retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilisation, consumer sentiment, and business inventories out of the US.

PRECIOUS: A disappointing session for the precious complex as gold gives back the early gains to close lower. The market was led by USD/JPY through the session, gold was fairly well bid through Asian hours as dollar/yen was sold below 113, but couldn't push through the previous session high of $1225. The SGE premium traded around $11 over loco London which prompted a pick up in buying out of China. The greenback rallied during the London AM session sparking a sell off in the yellow metal, by the time NY came in the market was at $1220 and trading at the low of $1216 not long after. Fairly quiet trade through the remainder of the session saw gold remain within a tight $2 range and close around the low. Silver was looking to test $16 during Asian hours but succumbed to the sell off during the NY session, the grey metal gave up nearly 2% from the high to finish at $15.66. PGM's looked well supported early, particularly palladium which surged to a high of $871, but finished in the red. The Philadelphia gold and silver index lost 1.36%. The SPDR Gold Trust ETF sold 114kozs overnight. In todays trading USD/JPY is dictating terms once again, gold softened early as the dollar firmed, but found enough buy orders ahead of $1215 to support the market. The SGE premium has backed off slightly to $9-10. The XAU has ticked up in the afternoon as the USD is sold against the yen, reaching a high of $1218.90. The yellow metal is at $1217.80 as I write. Silver was well offered early and despite the late rally still finds itself in arrears for the day. The grey metal is sitting at $15.63 as I write. Not much price action either way for the PGMs, palladium is edging higher and platinum remains flat.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Monday 10 July 2017

MACRO: Nonfarm Payrolls in the U.S. outpaced expectations during June, surging 222k (exp: 178k), while May's print received an upwards revision to 152k from 138k previously and April was improved to 207k from 174k. Healthcare was the largest contributor to the headline figure, adding 37k new positions, while professional and business services gained 35k payrolls and mining added 8k. The Unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked up to 4.4% (exp: 4.3%) from 4.3% previously as the participation rate improved to 62.8% from 62.7%. The broader 'U-6' measure of unemployment and underemployment, which includes those who have stopped looking and those in part-time jobs who want full-time positions increased to 8.6% from 8.4%. Despite the strong increase in payrolls the news wasn't all good as wage pressures remained muted. Average hourly earnings edged just +0.2% MoM higher (exp: +0.3% MoM), while May's increase was cut to just +0.1% MoM from +0.2% MoM. The June figure kept annualised wage growth steady at +2.5% YoY (exp: +2.6% YoY). The average work week ticked modestly higher to 34.5 (exp: 34.4) from 34.4 previously. Equity markets in the U.S. received a boost from the from robust June jobs report on Friday and a much need reprieve to battered technology stocks. The DJIA added +0.44% to end the session at 21,414.34 points, booking a +0.3% weekly return in the process. The S&P 500 was led +0.64% higher by gains to technology stocks (+1.25%) to scratch out a +0.1% weekly gain, while the Nasdaq jumped just over +1% on Friday to see a +0.2% weekly return. Oil futures continued to decline on Friday following data from Baker Hughes noting the number of active oil rigs in the U.S. had increased by 7 to 763 rigs last week. WTI handed back over -2% for the session, sliding to around USD $44.35 per barrel to end the week -4% lower. Brent Crude sunk -2.8% on Friday to USD $46.71 per barrel, closing the week around -4.2% down. Treasury yields in the U.S. were on the march higher on Friday following the payrolls release, sending the 30-year bond +3bps higher to 2.935%, the highest level since May 23rd. The 10-year treasury yield added +2.3bps to around 2.39%, while the 2-year gained +0.4bps to 1.41%. Soft trade to energy stocks and concerns following the ECB minutes release on Thursday kept European markets generally under water on Friday. The Stoxx Europe 600 (-0.07%) trimmed its weekly gain to +0.2%, while the French CAC eased -0.14% and the German Dax was able to edge into positive territory to close +0.06% higher. In the U.K. the FTSE 100 reversed early weakness to end the session +0.19% higher, supported by a softer sterling following weaker than expected Industrial and Manufacturing Production prints.

PRECIOUS: The firmer than expected payrolls release out of the U.S. send gold tumbling on Friday, ripping through stops around the previous low of USD $1,217.50 and having to wait until underneath USD $1,210 for supportive price action to emerge. There was limited interest out of Asia and Europe leading into the U.S. data release, while volumes spiked around the jobs figure, with macro players on the offer all the down to the session low of USD $1,207.60. A modest relief rally into the close saw gold close above USD $1,210, ending the session close to -0.7% down for a weekly loss of -2.4%. The latest COTR showed gold positioning decreased by 4.66 million ounces or roughly -31%, with net positioning currently at 10.53 million ounces or just 28.30% of the all-time high. The changes were made up of a 6.3% reduction in gross longs, while gross shorts leapt by 21.5%. With regards to ETF flows, gold saw outflows of over 190k ounces on Friday, predominately driven by U.S. based funds. A new week but a similar story for gold during Asian trade on Monday, with the metal failing to garner any interest from bargain hunters following Friday's rout. Initial offers on the Shanghai open tested toward USD $1,210 as the on-shore premium held above USD $10 against London pricing, however the figure saw decent bids on Comex to withstand a further move lower. It wasn't until late in Asia that we saw a further leg lower, firstly moving through mild resistance at USD $1,210, while Friday's low print provided a brief period of support before offers overran the level. Interestingly the USD only saw a mild uptick during the late Asian weakness, with price movement generally limited to the precious complex. Initial support for the metal now sits broadly between USD $1,200 - $1,205, while a break below here is likely to see support around USD $1,195 and below this USD $1,180. After clawing back the majority of the early session flash crash throughout Asian trade on Friday, silver swiftly reversed course to pare these gains following the U.S. payrolls release. The grey metal made a brief attempt at USD $16 in New York, however collapsed through the early Asian low of USD $15.44 soon after. A late session bounce flattered the scorecard to have the metal -1.9% lower at the close, however unable to hide the staggering -6.3% fall over the week. With regards to COTR positioning, silver fell by 54.94 million ounces or nearly -22% to 197.7 million ounces, around 33% of the all-time high. Gross longs eased marginally to reduce 1%, while gross shorts jumped 13.3%. The grey metal followed gold lower during Asian trade on Monday, moving through USD $15.50 in early Chinese pricing, however not deviating far from the figure for the majority of the session. As with gold, it wasn't until late in trade that the metal saw a further leg lower, crashing through Friday's low print to see USD $15.22 before bids emerged. The grey metal continues to trade friendless and surely it's only a matter of time before we see a 14 handle. Data releases today includes German Imports / Exports and U.S. Consumer Credit.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

 

DAILY REPORT : Wed 19 July 2017

MARKETS/MACRO: U.S. stock indices traded mixed on Tuesday, as investors focused on weak trading results from a roster of banks (Goldman Sachs / BofA). But the tech-heavy Nasdaq looked set to close at its first record in about a month on the back of its longest winning streak in nearly 2 years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average cooled -54.99 points, or -0.25%, to 21,574.73, the S&P500 inched up +1.47 points, or +0.06%, to 2,460.61 and the Nasdaq rallied +29.874 points, or +0.47%, to 6,344.305. The best performing sectors were tech (+0.5%) and consumer discretionary (+0.4%), while telco's (-0.98%) and energy (-0.49%) floundered. European benchmarks finished the session under pressure as the Euro raced up to a 14 month high against the U.S. dollar (1.1583) and as disappointing corporate earnings reports rolled in (Ericsson / Zalando / Experion). The FTSE Euro First 300 index slid -16.88 points, or -1.11% to 1,502.96 and the Euro Stoxx 600 similarly retreated -4.28 points, or -1.11% to 382.58. Regionally the DAX gave up -1.25%, CAC40 -1.09% and FTSE100 -0.19%. Crude oil prices surged higher on reports that Saudi Arabia is considering more export cuts. It then pared back some of the gains late in the session as investors questioned whether it was just another attempt at jaw-boning the market higher. A report from consultant Petroleum Policy Intelligence said that Saudi Arabia was considering a further 1 million b/d cut to counter the rise in Libyan and Nigerian production. This was followed by comments from Ecuador Oil Minister Carlos Perez who said he had spoken to Saudi Arabia about both remaining committed to reducing inventories to normalised levels. In the end August WTI crude rebounded +$0.41, or +0.89% to US$46.43 a barrel. Bonds rallied and the curve continued to flatten in the U.S. due to the slowdown in global inflation, the 2y note fell -0.8bps to 1.3477% and the 10y bond yield sank -5.33bps to 2.2607%. USD remained under pressure as investors continue to lose confidence in Trump’s economic stimulus after the failure to replace Obamacare. The breach of 1.15 in EUR/USD yesterday precipitated a flurry of buying and we closed around 1.1555 having printed 1.1583 highs. Volumes also materially picked up in AUD/USD which held on to gains above 0.7900 on persistent interest to the topside. The hawkish RBA minutes yesterday were the catalyst and it appears the market may have been underestimating the probability for a hike this year.

Markets were given a jolt yesterday by the RBA minutes from the July board meeting which were more upbeat than the Statement that immediately followed the meeting. The assessment in early July that the March quarter slowdown was only “partly reflecting temporary factors” was changed to one that is “largely reflecting temporary factors”. The minutes also noted that “the data available for the June quarter had generally been positive”. The Bank judged that “the most recent Australian and state government budgets suggested that fiscal policy would be more expansionary in 2017-18 than had been previously expected”. What’s more, the unexpected discussion about the neutral cash rate and the focus on the RBA’s estimate of 3.5% stirred the market to interpreting the current policy settings as highly stimulatory. The AUD front-end reacted quite aggressively, with the Jun-2018 bank bill futures selling-off some 10bp from the release. The AUD jumped more than one 100 pips over the session to an intra day high just above 0.7920.

PRECIOUS: Gold continued to follow the recent traction, grinding its way higher for a seventh consecutive session as investors express continued concern on U.S. economic strength and the ongoing political gridlock. U.S. reforms look increasingly uncertain with two more Republican senators announcing overnight their opposition to Trump's healthcare reform bill. Gold ticked lower in the lead up to the Tocom open and just after it but did find it's feet again 15 minutes before the SGE open. It was around this time also that EURUSD and AUDUSD started to accelerate, the former rushing through the key 1.15 barrier and the latter punching through the 2016 highs (0.7829) and running strongly through 0.7900, following the hawkish RBA minutes. Gold rallied in line with these moves, running through $1235 and plateauing at $1237.50 throughout the Asia afternoon. The SGE remained fairly dormant, with moderate to light flows seen across the week and the premium seemingly fixed either side of $10 above spot. A few dollars were handed back throughout the London session but by the time NY opened the USD was again whacked which led gold to a fresh July high of $1244.50. The yellow metal is moving towards a fairly important resistance zone between $1246.50-$1248.50, where the 50 dma, 100 dma and 61.8% retracement of the May-Jun rally. On the downside we should see support initially at $1238-40 and then again at $1229.50 (200 dma).

Quiet start to the day in Asia, gold slowly ticking up a few dollars over the hours leading into Tocom opening. We touched a peak of $1243.40 shortly after the Tocom open with some light Japanese buying apparent. With the approaching SGE open some retail selling began to enter the market and gold edged lower. China were net sellers on the day, which took the premium sub-$10 and suppressed the spot price back towards $1241. This afternoon All in all though the market was very quiet today with little to report. In other markets equities were firmer the Shanghai Composite at time of writing +0.8%, Hang Seng +0.5%, Nikkei +0.05% and ASX200 +0.8%, the USD is narrowly mixed and WTI crude is down -$0.15 (-0.3%)at $46.25/b. On the data front today a fairly quiet one, U.S. mortgage applications, housing starts and building permits the only thing to look out for.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 13 July 2017

MACRO: Federal Reserve President Janet Yellen presented her semi-annual testimony to congress on Wednesday, discussing recent developments across the U.S. economy in addition to indicating, as expected, that the committee will begin balance sheet 'normalisation' later this year. Chair Yellen noted that the economy continues to add jobs and is benefitting from a pickup in household consumption as well as improved business investment, however inflation, although expected to return to 2% over the next couple of years, currently has an uncertain near-term outlook. With regards to interest rates Yellen stated that the Federal funds rate "would not have to rise all that much further", adding that should the economy continue at current pace it is expected that there will be "gradual increases in the federal-funds rate over time". Day two of Chair Yellen's testimony is scheduled for Thursday in front of the Senate Banking Committee. The Federal Reserve Beige Book released on Wednesday showed economic growth as 'slight to moderate' during the period of late May to through June, while tight labour availability was cited across some districts as creating headwinds for employment growth. Employers are reluctant to increase wages even amid the tightening labour market and as such wage growth was described as increasing at a modest to moderate pace. Equity markets in the U.S. received a boost on Wednesday from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's dovish skew, seeing the DJIA to a fresh record closing high, the first for the bourse since June 19. Solid gains to big names such as DuPont (+2.75%) and Microsoft (+1.66%) helped support the bourse +0.57% higher to 21,532.14 points, while strength across technology (+1.31%) and Real Estate (+1.30%) underpinned a +0.73% gain to the S&P 500 as all eleven sectors ended in positive territory. The Nasdaq Composite continued to benefit from the push back into technology stocks, rising +1.10% for a fourth consecutive session gain. Oil futures closed modestly higher on Wednesday after enduring whippy data driven pricing in early New York. Crude saw underlying support following data released by the EIA noting U.S. domestic crude supplies fell by 7.6 million barrels during the week ended July 7, however the positive data was tempered somewhat by reports that crude production increased by 59,000 barrels per day to 9.397 million barrels per day. WTI ended the session around +0.7% higher to settle at USD $45.49 per barrel, while Brent added USD $0.22 for a +0.5% gain at USD $47.74 per barrel. Treasury yields in the U.S. eased on Wednesday following Yellen's testimony to congress, seeing the 10-year 3.4bps lower to 2.327%. Markets in Europe turned higher on Wednesday on the back of Yellen's testimony to congress, with particular focus on the prepared remarks noting that interest rates do not have to rise much further. The Stoxx Europe 600 posted its highest close in two weeks to gain +1.52%, matched by a +1.52% increase to the German Dax, while the French CAC shaded the two to close +1.59% higher. In the U.K. the FTSE 100 jumped +1.19% to notch the largest single-session percentage gain since April 24 as major oil players showed strength.

PRECIOUS: Gold ended higher on Wednesday following a generally orderly ascent that was punctuated by a brief period of volatility following the release of Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's prepared remarks. The dovish skew to Yellen's comments and indications that the federal reserve aren't in any rush to increase the funds rate underpinned the metal's bid tone throughout the U.S. session, printing a USD $1,225.75 high before easing modestly into the close. Asian trade on Thursday saw a general bid tone across the precious complex, with gold well supported around USD $1,220 in early flows, before Chinese demand and a leg lower to the greenback saw gold steadily higher throughout afternoon pricing. The consolidation around USD $1,220 should be viewed as positive for near-term pricing, with the relatively light long positioning instilling confidence in the market that the metal is open to further top-side moves. Geopolitical concerns out of the Korean peninsula are likely to supportive for the broader precious complex, while the very fluid Trump-Russia collusion story continues to create uncertainty across markets. Silver once again tested a break back above USD $16 on Wednesday and has outperformed the remainder of the precious complex in recent sessions following the USD $15.20 low printed on Monday (now close to +5% higher). After easing back through the figure late in New York trade on Wednesday, the grey metal made several attempts to trade above USD $16 in Asia on Thursday, however consistent offers on Comex restricted any further moves higher. Silver will look for a consolidated move through USD $16.00 for a further leg higher, with targets extending to USD $16.50 over the near-term. Platinum consolidated Wednesday's short squeeze higher during Asian trade today, moving further away from the pivot point of USD $900, while palladium held a relatively narrow range and will look to USD $850 for support. Today we see Fed Chair Yellen's testimony in front of the Senate Banking Committee, while on the data front we receive German and French CPI, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, U.S. PPI, U.S. Bloomberg Consumer Confidence and the U.S. Monthly Budget Statement.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Friday 7 July 2017

MACRO: Initial Jobless Claims in the U.S. increased 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 248,000 during the week ended July 1. The weekly print saw the four-week moving average edge 750 higher to 243,000, while Continuing Claims increased +11,000 to 1.956 million during the week ended June 24. Private sector job growth in the U.S. eased during June according to the latest ADP data, slowing to 158k (exp: 188k) from 230k previously. Mid-sized firms supported the headline print to add 91k payrolls, while large companies gained 50k and small companies lagged to add 17k. Data released by Markit Economics on Thursday showed the U.S. services sector increased at the fastest pace since January during June. The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit Services PMI jumped to 54.2 during June (exp: 53.0) from an initial read of 53.0 and a May print of 53.6. Supporting the headline print was a further upturn in new orders to mark the fastest rate of expansion since January, while input prices increased at the fastest pace in five years. Equity markets in the U.S. turned lower on Thursday, with investor's continuing to off-load technology stocks while keeping an eye firmly on geopolitical developments. The DJIA declined -0.74% to 21,320.04 points, while telecoms (-2.29%) and realestate (-1.88%) led all eleven sectors of the S&P 500 lower to have the bourse close -0.94% off the pace. The Nasdaq continued to suffer from recent rotation out of technology stocks, losing -1.00% to end the session at 6,089.464 points. Oil futures handed back gains late in trade on Thursday, finding support early in the U.S. session following an EIA report noting domestic crude supplies fell by 6.3 million barrels for the week ended June 30. Tempering the market reaction somewhat was the fact that U.S. crude production increased by 88,000 barrels per day to 9.338 million barrels per day. WTI touched a session high of USD $46.53 per barrel, however by the close was trading around USD $45.33 per barrel to book a -0.6% decline.

PRECIOUS: Gold tracked a relatively steady course on Thursday, broadly supported by a softer USD during European and U.S. hours to hold the support above USD $1,220. Asia opened with an offered bias in volatile early session pricing, pulling away from USD $1,230 in thin conditions as resting offers on Comex kept a lid on any top-side moves. Modest Chinese interest around the SGE open provided a brief period of support for the metal, however the bids waned once Shanghai exited for lunch to see the price action soften into European hours. Subdued trade out Europe was punctuated by a brief spike above USD $1,227 in early New York following the softer than expected ADP data, however a lack of follow through buying kept the yellow metal within a tight range into the close. In a relatively muted Asian session on Friday, the main talking point was a staggering early session collapse to silver, in what looks again likely to be a fat finger driven decline to follow that of gold just last week. The grey metal saw strange early session price action to trade well bid and gap around USD $0.15 to a session high USD $16.17. The bid tone didn't last long however, with somewhere between 30 - 50 million ounces sold on Comex to see the grey metal print a USD $15.60 low (after revision of futures low from CME). Much like gold last week, the metal failed to recover to the pre-crash level as it would be expected to do so if pricing was driven soley by an error. Much like silver, gold wiped away an early session bid tone to be sold lower as the events unfolded on Comex, losing close to USD $6 in a sharp sweep to support around USD $1,220. A modest bounce leading into Chinese trade failed to garner the interest necessary to support an further recovery, seeing gold precariously placed around the session low leading into European trade. All eyes tonight are undoubtedly on the U.S. Nonfarm payrolls, with a strong print potentially seeing gold test major support at USD $1,200. In the lead-up we see Manufacturing / Industrial Production from France and the U.K. as well as U.K. House Prices.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.