DAILY REPORT : Monday 7 May 2018

MACRO: Jobs data out of the U.S. on Friday showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 164,000 during April (exp: 193,000), while the unemployment rate declined to an 18-year low of 3.9% (exp: 4.0%) from 4.1% previously as the participation rate declined to 62.8%. The March payroll figure received an increase of 32,000 to 135,000, however February eased 2,000 to 324,000. The broader 'U-6' measure of unemployment and underemployment, which includes those who have stopped looking and those in part-time jobs who want full-time positions eased to 7.8% from 8.0% previously to mark the lowest level since July 2001. Average hourly earnings ticked just +0.1% higher MoM to hold at +2.6% YoY. Equity markets in the U.S. surged higher on Friday following early weakness, buoyed by gains across the tech sector as Apple spiked +3.92% on reports Berkshire Hathaway had bought 75 million shares in the first quarter. The DJIA ended the session +1.39% higher at 24,262.51 points, while technology (+1.97%) led each of the 11 sectors of the S&P into positive territory as the bourse booked a +1.28% gain to 2,663.42 points. Friday’s gains were not enough however to see the bourses into positive territory on a weekly basis, with both easing around -0.2% over the period. The greenback jumped to nearly its highest level since early January on Friday, notably stronger against the euro following softer than expected data out of the region. The DXY index added +0.22% as EUR/USD tested 1.1900, while the British pound slipped below 1.35 against the dollar, ending the week -1.8% lower.

PRECIOUS: Bullion continued to remain buoyant above the 200 DMA on Friday into the U.S. payrolls data, seeing supportive price action on the back of softer U.S. yields to end the session with a modest gain. Early session demand out of Asia took the metal toward USD $1,315, however the bid tone was soon reversed in London to see gold test underneath USD $1,310. Whippy trade around the payrolls print saw a sharp move higher to USD $1,315.90 on the softer than expected headline figure, however the better than expected unemployment rate sharply reversed the initial move, touching a USD $1,307.90 low before gradually clawing back ground over the remainder of the session. Recent ETF selling coupled with the stronger greenback saw gold nearly -1% lower over the week and whilst holdings continue to remain elevated, we may see further liquidation cap upwards momentum over the near term. Support for the metal may come in the form of geopolitical tensions out of Iran as we move closer to the May 12 deadline, at which point President Trump will decide whether to continue waving sanctions.

Asia opened to a mild bid bias on Monday, triggering an early session stop loss run through New York’s Friday high print after seeing supportive price action from a softening greenback. Weakness across USD/JPY following the BOJ minutes release noting most members see it appropriate to ‘keep easing persistently’ looked to be the catalyst for the dollar decline. The BOJ headlines saw the yellow metal to USD $1,317.50, while initial Chinese interest saw a further extension to the session high of USD $1,319.10 as the on-shore premium in Shanghai edged toward USD $7. Afternoon pricing saw a resurgent greenback pressure bullion lower as USD/JPY recovered toward 109.20 after earlier trading as low as 108.76. The yellow metal pared earlier gains to test underneath opening levels around USD $1,315, however was supported by interest underneath this level to restrict further declines. Price action today will likely be concentrated to U.S. hours as the U.K. takes leave, with support expected broadly from USD $1,315 to the 200 DMA at USD $1,305.80, while resistance cuts in at USD $1,320 and above this the 100 DMA at USD $1,325.20. Data releases today include German factory orders and U.S. consumer credit.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

 

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 01 May 2018

MACRO: US equities shrugged off more positive earnings data to finish lower overnight. The Dow lost 148.04 points, or 0.61%, to 24,163.15, the S&P 500 fell 21.86 points, or 0.82% to 2,648.05, while the Nasdaq shed 53.533 points, or 0.75%, to 7,066.266. Telecoms (-2.66%), health (-1.56%) and industrials (-1.35%) led a broad decline in the markets. European equities were higher, the EuroSTOXX rose 0.68 points, or 0.18%, to 385.32, the German DAX put on 31.24 points, or 0.25%, to 12,612.11, and the London FTSE 100 gained 7.09 points, or 0.09%, to 7,509.30. In the currencies, the US dollar index firmed 0.32% to 91.838, the EUR 1.2067 while USD/JPY was as high as 109.41. US treasury yields were mixed, the 2 year yield rose 0.41 bps to 2.4879% and the 10 year yield fell 0.37 bps to 2.9531%. In commodities news, oil prices were higher on concerns that the US will restore sanctions on Iran after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that Iran ran a secret program to produce nuclear weapons. Brent tacked on 0.71% to $75.17 while WTI gained 0.69% to $68.57. Base metals were mostly higher, with aluminium (1.44%) leading the gains. In US economic data, the PCE price index rose 2% year-on-year in March, following a 1.7% increase in February. The Core PCE price index advanced 1.9% in the 12 months to March. Personal income increased 0.3% in March from 0.4% in February, and real consumer spending rose 0.4%. The Chicago PMI rose to 57.6 in April from 57.4 in March. The National Association of Realtors pending home sales index rose 0.4% to 107.6 in March. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei is at +0.05%, the Shanghai composite is closed, the Hang Seng is closed, and the ASX S&P 200 is at +0.56%. Tonight we have Markit manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing index, construction spending, and motor vehicle sales out of the US; and GDP growth, Markit manufacturing PMI, and unemployment rate out of the Eurozone.

PRECIOUS: Softer session for the precious in light trading. Gold opened at $1322 in Asia and traded up to $1324.80 just after the open, however this would be the high for the day. With Japan and China both out for holidays the liquidity was thin, and as soon as USD/JPY started firming gold lost ground quickly. The metal dropped to $1317 by the time London came in, the sell off continued until the market reached it's nadir of $1310 just after the NY open. From here there was in impressive bounce back to $1320 as investors dumped equities, but the yellow metal was unable to sustain the rally and drifted to a close at $1315. Volatile session for silver, the grey metal tumbled almost 2% to a low of $16.18 before gapping up 27c in early NY hours then easing to finish at $1315. In the PGMS, platinum dipped below the $900 level for the first time since December. The Philadelphia gold and silver index lost 2.15%. Quiet again in Asia today with China still out, gold opened at $1315.40 and has drifted lower as the day progressed, the yellow metal is at $1311.90 as I write. Silver drifting also, the grey metal sits at $16.27 as I write. Platinum and palladium are at $900 and $961 respectively. Gold should find some resistance at the $1321 100 DMA. Support-wise, we are nearing some key technical levels with the 200 DMA at $1304 and the psychological $1300 level below that, expect broad support between $1300 and the overnight low of $1310.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Wed 25 Apr 2018

MARKETS/MACRO: Global markets traded with a stronger risk off tone yesterday with equities in the New York session closing sharply lower, particularly so for industrial and technology names. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged -424.56 points (-1.74%) to 24,024.13, the S&P500 shed -35.73 points (-1.34%) to 2,634.56 and the NASDAQ Composite retreated -121.249 points (-1.70%) to 7,007.353. European bourses weathered the storm a little better with mixed results across major indices. The EuroFirst 300 was pretty much flat up +0.48 of a point (+0.03%) to 1,503.02 and the Euro Stoxx 600 eased slightly down -0.07 of a point (-0.02%) to 383.11. Regionally the FTSE100 rose +0.36%, the DAX fell -0.17% and CAC40 inched up +0.10%. In commodities, Crude fell overnight (WTI down -$1.20, -1.7% to $67.72) amid speculation that the U.S would not withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action (JCPOA) following the Trump/Macron conference. Aluminium softened further as the U.S stance on Russian producer Rusal's sanctions appeared to soften further, though the metal remains roughly +12.6% above the lows. Copper outperformed the base complex amid concerns regarding a mining strike in Chile as well as headlines that suggest China is loosening its monetary policy stance - in line with the recent RRR cut. The main focus overnight was on the rates space after the U.S 10y touched 3.00%, to settle and close just below there (2.999%). The broader DXY correlated well to the higher yields last night, rising in line with the 10yr before paring back gains as yields retraced slightly and equities slid. USDJPY held onto the previous day’s gains and closed a touch higher around 108.80, EUR-USD closed a touch higher to 1.2230 and AUD-USD was range bound and closed unchanged at 0.7600, although has now slipped below this level.

On the data front, March new home sales rose +4.0% MoM (+1.9% expected) to 694k and February was revised up strongly to +3.6% from -0.6%. The U.S Conference Board's April consumer confidence rose to 128.7 (126.0 expected) from 127.0 previously - which was revised lower by -0.7. In Europe, Germany's latest IFO business climate reading fell noticeably again in April from 103.3 to 102.1 (102.8 expected) - the trend continuing to point downwards. The German economy’s upturn will lose some of its momentum in the coming quarters which will leave the ECB unimpressed.

PRECIOUS: Gold held in rather well overnight considering the sell-off in bonds and base metals, once again showing resilience ahead of the 100 dma ($1320.30) thanks to notable onshore Chinese demand. The yellow metal opened at $1325 yesterday and from the get-go there were profit taking specs looking for offers, expecting China to be on the bid when they opened up for trade. The gold inched higher in the lead up to the China open toward $1327, although when they came in demand was not what was expected and the metal sharply sold off to the days low around $1322.50. As mentioned earlier there were decent bids on both Ecomex and SGE ahead of the 100 dma and the metal just as quickly popped back to $1328 where it traded quietly throughout the rest of the Asia session. It remained in a narrow band through out Europe ($1324-28) and began to catch a bid during NY, due to the sliding equity market. It was a gradual incline throughout the rest of the session pushing as high as $1332.50 and managing to close just above $1330. ETF flows were again skewed to the buyside, with speculators adding a further 95k oz worth of length overnight. That takes the monthly accrued buying to ~1.6 mio ozs across gold ETF's according to Bloomberg and we feel that if this continues, gold should remain supported above $1300-1310. We see strong resistance at $1360-70 area, where we have stalled numerous times. It feels like the market wants to try the lowside major support now which sits at that $1300-1310 level. Elsewhere, palladium was still volatile overnight yet continued to slip on the back of the weaker base metals touching a low of $967.75 - a long way from the $1056 peak hit only a week ago.

Gold opened on the back foot today, with a stronger USD providing some headwind for the metal. The initial move was higher towards $1332 over the first hour or so of trade, although this turned once the AUDUSD broke down through 0.7600, gold slipping to $1330 right around the SGE open. The metal remained weak throughout most of the morning session with the SGE premium stable around $7.50-8.50 for the most part. Persistent Comex selling was the continued to pressure the gold throughout the AM China session although $1328 did manage to hold throughout. Once lunch came around though the yellow metal continued its slow descent hitting $1326.00 just before the SGE re-open. There was a brief pop higher at the China open, but Comex was offering into this and we traded back down towards $1325 where we currently sit looking a little soggy. In other markets AUDUSD continues its weakness down 35 pips on the day to 0.7567 at present, and the rest of the G10 is also soft. Major Asian equity indices are lower at time of writing and crude is flat.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

DAILY REPORT : Friday 4 May 2018

MARKETS/MACRO:
Nonfarm productivity in the U.S. increased a seasonally adjusted +0.7% (exp: +0.9%) during Q1 2018, while unit labor costs increased +2.7% over the same period. Initial jobless claims inched just 2,000 higher to 211,000 during the week ended April 28 (exp: 225,000), while the four-week moving average declined 7,750 to 221,500 to mark the lowest level since March 1973. Continuing claims fell 77,000 to 1.756 million (exp: 1.835 million) during the week ended April 21. The ISM reported its U.S. non-manufacturing index declined to a four-month low of 56.8 in April (exp: 58.0), with rising labour and production costs reportedly a concern for respondents. Factory orders in the U.S. increased at a faster rate than expected during March, advancing +1.6% (exp: +1.4%) to follow an upwardly revised +1.6% increase (prev: +1.2%) the month prior. A +7.6% increase in orders for transportation goods underpinned the headline print, while ex-transportation orders added +0.3%. The closely watched orders for non-defence capital goods (ex-air) declined -0.4% to follow a -0.1% fall during February. The U.S. trade balance (deficit) shrank -15.2% MoM during March to USD $49.0 billion, marking the largest monthly decline in two-years and the lowest level since September. Equity markets in the U.S. ended mixed on Thursday, however the major bourses were able to recover from sharp early session declines that saw both the S&P 500 and the DJIA trade briefly underneath their respective 200-day moving averages. The DJIA clawed its way back into positive territory late in trade to end +0.02% higher at 23,930.15 points, while the S&P 500 slipped -0.23% to 2,629.73 points, with healthcare (-0.87%) the main laggard. The greenback saw mixed trade on Thursday a day after the Federal Reserve’s policy statement, however ultimately ended the session -0.2% lower

PRECIOUS:
Gold pushed higher on Thursday after seeing support from a softer dollar and falling treasury yields. After testing below the 200 DMA late in New York trade on Wednesday, the metal climbed back above the important support level in early Asian trade and continued to strengthen toward USD $1,310 on the back of early Chinese interest. A divergence from the recent correlation to the Euro saw a short squeeze above USD $1,318 as New York filtered in, however the bid tone was relatively short lived and the metal settled back toward USD $1,310 - $1,312 for the remainder of the session with participants eyeing Friday’s payrolls data.

Bullion price action during Asian trade on Friday was relatively subdued, with the metal seeing support toward USD $1,311 amid modest early session offers. Shanghai interest once again provided a modest bid tone for the metal, extending briefly above USD $1,314, however layered offers sitting broadly between USD $1,315 and the previous session of USD $1,318 restricted any further gains. The greenback skewed toward the downside to underpin bullion’s price action, however flows were tempered somewhat as participants turn focus towards today’s U.S. employment data. Expect todays payrolls data to be the major driver of near-term price action from here, with the 200 DMA at USD $1,305.50 and the psychological USD $1,300 looming as key supports. Any topside extensions will target USD $1,320 initially, while above this 100 DMA (USD $1,324.60) and the 50 DMA (USD $1,328.30) will provide a broad band of resistance.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

DAILY REPORT : Monday 30 Apr 2018

MACRO: US equities were flat on Friday despite some strong corporate earnings results. The Dow edged lower 11.15 points, or 0.05%, to 24,311.19, the S&P 500 added 2.97 points, or 0.11% to 2,669.91, while the Nasdaq inched higher 1.122 points, or 0.02%, to 7,119.799. There were wins for telecoms (+1.75%) and REITs (+1.32%), while energy (-1.22%) and tech (-0.32%) led the laggards. European equities were higher, the EuroSTOXX rose 0.89 points, or 0.23%, to 384.64, the German DAX put on 80.40 points, or 0.64%, to 12,580.87, and the London FTSE 100 gained 80.78 points, or 1.09%, to 7,502.21. In the currencies, the US dollar index eased 0.02% to 91.54201, the EUR traded up to 1.2130 while USD/JPY was as low as 109.00. US treasury yields were mixed, the 2 year yield firmed 0.21 bps to 2.4838% and the 10 year yield fell 2.41 bps to 2.9568%. In commodities news, oil prices were lower as Brent fell 0.13% to $74.64 and WTI lost 0.13% to $68.10. Base metals were broadly lower, with nickel (-2.46%) leading the losses. In US economic data, GDP grew at a seasonally adjusted annualised rate of 2.3% first quarter of 2018, beating economist forecasts of a 2% expansion. The employment cost index rose 0.8% in the first three months of 2018, following a 0.6% in the previous quarter, the index advanced 2.7% over the past year. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to an upwardly revised 98.8% in April from 101.4 in May. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei is at +0.66%, the Shanghai composite is at +0.23%, the Hang Seng at +1.50%, and the ASX S&P 200 is at +0.58%. Tonight we have personal income, consumer spending, core inflation, and Chicago PMI out of the US.

PRECIOUS: Better session for gold as the USD rally took a breather. Trade in gold was fairly subdued through Asian hours, the metal opened at $1317 and remained within a $3 range. The SGE premium was around $8-9 and Chinese buying helped support the market, we saw a test of the overnight low at $1315 on a couple of occasions throughout the day but each time the level held. Gold found some support in London and traded up to $1319 by the time the US came in. Investors began selling the dollar not long after NY open and the yellow metal pushed higher through the remainder of the session, reaching the days high of $1325 just before the close. Silver pared early losses to finish flat at $16.50. In the PGMs, platinum was flat while palladium traded down to $968. The Philadelphia gold and silver index added 0.49%. The SPDR gold trust holdings were unchanged at 871.20 metric tonnes. The markets have been quiet today with both China and Japan out for holidays. Gold is starting to soften late in the day, the yellow metal is sitting at $1319.00 as I write. Silver is at $16.43, with platinum and palladium sitting at $905 and $969 as I write. Gold has once again dipped below the 100 DMA this afternoon and is approaching the support level at yesterdays low of $1315, below that the psychological $1300 level awaits. On the topside, the recent high of $1325 will be the first target.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 24 Apr 2018

MACRO: US treasury yields continued to rise as traders expectation of rising inflation increases. The 10 year yield moved closer to the psychological 3% level, the benchmark rate has not traded that high since January 2014. The 2 year yield firmed 1.91 bps to 2.4764% and the 10 year yield rose 1.5 bps to 2.9752%. US equities were marginally lower as rising bond yields put pressure on the stock market. The Dow slipped 14.25 points, or 0.06%, to 24,448.69, the S&P 500 crept up 0.15 points, or 0.001% to 2,670.29, while the Nasdaq fell 17.524 points, or 0.25%, to 7,128.602. There were wins for telecoms (+1.08%) and energy (+0.61%) while tech (-0.40%) and materials (-0.30%) led the laggards. European equities were higher, the EuroSTOXX added 1.34 points, or 0.35%, to 383.18, the German DAX gained 31.89 points, or 0.25%, to 12,572.39, and the London FTSE 100 rose 30.70 points, or 0.42%, to 7,398.87. The greenback was bid was bid overnight ahead of key economic releases slated for later in the week. The US dollar index rose 0.68%, the EUR traded down to 1.2198, and USD/JPY traded up to 108.72. Oil prices were higher, Brent added 1.27% to $75.00 while WTI put on 0.76% to $68.92. Base metals were lower, with aluminium (-7.05%) the big loser on news that the US Treasury Department eased sanctions on Russian aluminium producer Rusal. In US economic data, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index reading was 0.10 in March down from 0.98 in February, with weaker employment indicators weighing on the broader index. The National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales rose 1.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.6M in March. The IHS Markit manufacturing PMI flash reading rose to 56.5 in April from 55.5 in March, while the services flash reading rose to 54.4 from 54. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei is at +0.62%, the Shanghai composite is at +1.66%, the Hang Seng at -+1.07%, and the ASX S&P 200 is at +0.46%. Tonight we have the consumer confidence index, Case-Shiller home prices, and new home sales out of the US; and Ifo current conditions, expectations, and business climate out of Germany.

PRECIOUS: Gold loses ground for the third consecutive session as broad US dollar strength continued to put pressure on the precious complex. Gold opened at $1334.90 and remained within the $1332-35 range through Asian trading hours, with the SGE premium remaining around $8. London were on the offer from the opening bell as the US dollar found a bid, gold was sold down to $1327 before stabilising. NY were happy to sell here, the market reached a low of $1322 and remained around the level for the remainder of the session. Heavy losses in base metals also reverberated through the precious, silver and palladium in particular were both heavily sold through key support levels. Silver shed almost 3% and palladium was hammered 3.6% to a low of $973. The Philadelphia gold and silver index lost 2.19%. In Asia today, gold is higher following some choppy trading this morning, the SGE premium has firmed slightly to $9 and we are seeing some buying out of China. The yellow metal is at $1326.50 as I write. Silver is still hovering around last night's lows, as I write the grey metal sits at $16.66. Very little price action in the PGMs. Gold should find close support between the 100 DMA at $1318 and the $1321 April low which held again last night, and around $1308 below that. On the upside, yesterdays high of $1335 should provide some resistance with the $1350 level providing the next target.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 3 May 2018

MACRO: The FOMC left interest rates unchanged overnight, as was widely expected by investors. Commentary from the Fed mentioned that "overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have moved close to 2%" and suggested that it expects inflation to move close to the 2% target over the medium term. Traders were looking to the policy statement for clues as to whether the Fed may add another rate hike this year above the three already planned, however despite the slightly hawkish sentiment the statement offered no firm indication either way. US equities traded higher following the rates announcement, however the three major bourses finished in the red after a late sell-off. The Dow lost 174.07 points, or 0.72%, to 23,924.98, the S&P 500 fell 19.13 points, or 0.72% to 2,635.67, while the Nasdaq shed 29.808 points, or 0.42%, to 7,100.896. Energy (+0.39%) was the lone positive sector as consumer staples (-1.93%), telecoms (-1.76%) and health (-1.41%) weighed on the markets. European equities were higher, the EuroSTOXX rose 2.41 points, or 0.63%, to 387.44, the German DAX put on 190.14 points, or 1.51%, to 12,802.25, and the London FTSE 100 gained 22.84 points, or 0.30%, to 7,543.20. The currencies saw whippy trade following the FOMC announcement, the US dollar index initially dropped 0.38% on the news before rebounding even higher to 92.809, up 0.30% for the day. The EUR traded down to 1.1938 shortly after popping over 1.20, and USD/JPY was as high as 109.98. US treasury yields were mixed, the 2 year yield eased 1.60 bps to 2.4882% and the 10 year yield rose 0.19 bps to 2.9663%. In commodities news, oil prices were mixed as Brent lost 0.08% to $73.07 and WTI added 0.64% to $67.68. Base metals were mostly higher, with aluminium (+2.72%) leading the gains. In US economic data, ADP employment data showed the private sector added 204,000 jobs in April, this follows an increase in March of 228,000 jobs which was downwardly revised from the previously estimated 241,000. This is the sixth consecutive month of job growth above 200,000. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei is at -0.16%, the Shanghai composite is at 0.62%, the Hang Seng is at -1.16%, and the ASX S&P 200 is at +0.80%. Tonight we have weekly jobless claims, trade deficit, productivity, unit labor costs, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing index, and factory orders out of the US; and PPI and inflation data out of the Eurozone.

PRECIOUS: Choppy session for the precious ahead of the FOMC rates announcement out of the US. Gold opened at $1304 found a bid early as Asia returned from holidays, with short covering pushing the market to $1311. The SGE premium was around $8-9 which prompted early buying from the Chinese banks which turned into selling later in the day as the premium came off. London came in at $1309 and hovered around that level through the AM session. From the opening bell in NY the greenback was bid as investors anticipated the afternoons FOMC announcement, gold was promptly sold to the days low at $1303. The yellow metal spiked to a session high $1312 on the rates news and quickly came crashing back down to test the $1302 200 DMA once again. Gold finished flat for the day at $1304. Silver had already rallied over 20c before popping up to the high of $16.49, the grey metal closed ahead at $16.35. Palladium was the pick of the PGMs, surging over 3% to a high of $973. The Philadelphia gold and silver index added 0.61%. The SPDR gold trust holdings were unchanged at 866.77 metric tonnes. In Asia today, gold opened at $1305 and traded up to $1310 on broad USD weakness. The SGE premium is around $7-8 over loco London. we are seeing increased selling as the day progresses. The yellow metal is at $1307.70 as I write. Silver traded up to $16.42 and has since eased back to the opening level at $16.40. PGMs are creeping higher. Gold is close to the key 200 DMA technical support at $1304, which is only just above the psychological $1300 level. On the topside, the 100 DMA at $1322 will be the first target.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Friday 27 Apr 2018

MACRO: US equities finished higher on some strong quarterly earnings results. The tech sector got a huge boost from Facebook, shares in the company jumped 9.1% on the back of March quarter earnings that were well ahead of forecasts. The Dow rose 238.51 points, or 0.99%, to 24,322.34, the S&P 500 added 27.54 points, or 1.04% to 2,666.94, while the Nasdaq gained 114.940 points, or 1.64%, to 7,118.677. There wins for tech (+2.27%), consumer discretionary (+1.59%) and energy (+1.50%), while telecoms (-3.23%) led the laggards. European equities were higher, the EuroSTOXX advanced 3.58 points, or 0.94%, to 383.75, the German DAX put on 78.17 points, or 0.63%, to 12,500.47, and the London FTSE 100 rose 42.11 points, or 0.57%, to 7,421.43. In the currencies, the US dollar index firmed 0.44% to a 4 month high of 91.575 and represents a break of the downtrend from the March, April, November and December 2017 highs. The EUR traded down to 1.2095, while USD/JPY was as high as 109.40. US treasury yields were lower, the 2 year yield eased 0.61 bps to 2.4817% and the 10 year yield fell 4.5 bps to 2.9809%. In commodities, oil prices were higher as Brent rose 1.05% to $74.78 and WTI ticked up 0.16% to $68.16. Base metals were mixed, with aluminium (+1.34%) the biggest mover. In US economic data, durable goods orders rose 2.6% in March on the back of a large increase in contracts for Boeing aeroplanes. Durable goods orders ex-transport was flat. Core capital goods orders fell 0.1% in March following a downwardly revised 0.9% increase in February. The trade deficit in goods shrunk 10.3% to $68 billion in March as per the US governments advanced report, this is the first time the deficit has narrowed in 7 months. Initial jobless claims fell by 24k to 209k in the week ending 21st April, while continuing claims fell 29k to 1.84M. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei is at +0.42%, the Shanghai composite is at -0.78%, the Hang Seng at +0.19%, and the ASX S&P 200 is at +0.48%. Tonight we have GDP, employment cost index, and consumer sentiment index out of the US; consumer confidence, business confidence, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, economic sentiment and consumer inflation expectations out of the Eurozone; and GDP and unemployment out of Germany.

PRECIOUS: Tough session for the precious with gold looking shaky in the face of broad support for the greenback.Gold opened at $1322 and traded a tight $3 range through Asian hours. The SGE premium was at $8-9 over loco London, Chinese buying helped squeeze the market to a high of $1325 just before the London open. The London AM session was choppy as volatility crept into the currency markets. The yellow metal plunged to a fresh April low of $1315 in early NY hours as the USD caught a bid. Gold finished close to the lows at $1316, closing below the 100 DMA for the first time since December of last year. Silver dropped to a low of $16.41 before finishing in the red at $16.50. Palladium was the best performer, surging $27 off the low to print a high of $992. The Philadelphia gold and silver index rose 0.07%. SPDR gold trust holdings were unchanged at 871.20 metric tonnes. In Asia today, gold has remained within the $1315-18 range in quiet trading. The SGE premium is higher at $9-10 over loco London. The yellow metal is at $1316.50 as I write. Silver has been range-bound, he grey metal sits at $16.50 as I write. PGM's are flat. Gold is looking weaker after the close below the 100 DMA, if the US dollar remains bid we could see a test of the psychological $1300 level. On the upside, last nights high of $1325 should provide some resistance.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Monday 23 Apr 2018

MACRO: US equities were lower Friday as the 10 year US treasury yield reached a 4 year high and a heavy loss for Apple dragged the tech sector lower. The Dow lost 201.95 points, or 0.82%, to 24,462.94, the S&P 500 fell 22.99 points, or 0.85% to 2,670.14, while the Nasdaq slipped 91.930 points, or 1.27%, to 7,146.126. Consumer staples (-1.68%) and tech (-1.51%) weighed heaviest on the markets. European equities were mixed, the EuroSTOXX edged lower 0.11 points, or 0.03%, to 381.84, the German DAX shed 26.92 points, or 0.21%, to 12,540.50, and the London FTSE 100 added 39.25 points, or 0.54%, to 7,368.17. In the currencies, the US dollar index rallied 0.42% to 90.316, the EUR traded down to 1.2265, while USD/JPY climbed to 107.79. US treasury yields were higher, the 2 year yield firmed 2.98 bps to 2.4573% and the 10 year yield rose 5.04 bps to 2.9602%. Oil prices were higher, Brent rose 0.38% to$74.06 while WTI firmed 0.10% to $68.40. Base metals were mixed, with nickel (-1.63%) making the biggest move. There was no significant economic data released on Friday. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei is at -0.28%, the Shanghai composite is at -0.14%, the Hang Seng at -0.34%, and the ASX S&P 200 is at +0.30%. Tonight we have the Chicago Fed national activity index, Markit manufacturing PMI (flash), Markit services PMI (flash), and existing home sales out of the US; and Markit services & manufacturing PMI (flash) out of the Eurozone.

PRECIOUS: A soft session as rising treasury yields and a US dollar rally put pressure on the precious complex. Gold opened at $1345 in Asia and drifted lower through day as the greenback firmed against the yen. The SGE premium was around $8 over loco London, which helped support the market at around $1341. Gold remained mostly within the $1340-43 range during the London AM session. The yellow metal was sold to the session low $1334 early in NY trading as the EUR dropped below 1.23. After a brief rebound but unconvincing rebound, gold finished the day around the lows. Silver was on the offer early but appeared to find some support ahead of the $17 level, the grey metal finishing at $17.11. It was a volatile session for palladium, the metal shed $20 to a low of $1012 before surging to a high of $1039 in NY trading. The Philadelphia gold and silver index lost 0.65%. The SPDR gold trust holdings were unchanged at 865.69 metric tonnes. In Asia today, gold has been range-bound between $1332-34 with the market fairly quiet. The SGE premium remains around $8 over loco London, The yellow metal is at 1333.50 as I write. Silver tested the technical $17 level earlier in the day and found buyers once again. The grey metal is at $17.09 as I write. PGMs are trading sideways. Gold is sitting just above the the 55 DMA at $1331, and should find support at the April lows around $1321 below that. On the upside, expect plenty of buyers above $1340.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Wed 2 May 2018

MARKETS/MACRO: With many markets closed in observance of May Day, activity globally was on the lighter side. U.S. stocks closed mostly higher on Tuesday, as a sharp rally in technology stocks (thanks to strong sales for Apple), helped the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq shake off an early decline. However, the Dow fell for a third straight session as caution remained high ahead of the conclusion of a Federal Reserve policy meeting and fresh developments in global trade. The Dow Jones Industrial Average crept down -64.1 points, or -0.27%, to 24,099.05, the S&P500 rallied +6.75 points, or +0.25%, to 2,654.80 and the NASDAQ Composite gained +64.438 points, or +0.98%, to 7,130.704. The best performing sector was Information Technology (+1.46%) and the worst performing sector intra-day was Consumer Staples ( -0.88%). It was a quiet days trading in Europe last night with some markets closed for the Labor Day holiday. The FTSE was open and it managed to eke out a small gain as earnings numbers continue to dominate news headlines. The EuroFirst 300 inched lower -1.18 points, or -0.08% to 1,510.85 and the Euro Stoxx 600 cooled equally, off -0.29 of a point, or -0.08% to 385.03. In FX, the USD continued its upward trajectory yesterday with the DXY closing above the 200 dma up +0.68% to 92.462. In EURUSD, we’ve broken through its 200-dma this morning , which opens up for 1.1829 and 1.1618 below with further bearish momentum, while breaks back above 1.2076 would signal a reversal to the bearish trend. In USDJPY we’ve got the 200 dma ahead at 110.2, which will be a key level to watch. AUDUSD has broken below 0.7500 this morning and is looking very soft, sitting at its lowest point since mid last year. In commodities, Crude oil prices fell (WTI -1.56% to $67.50) as the stronger USD triggered selling/profit taking by investors after a recent rally in prices. Focus will now be towards this week’s EIA report, with expectations switching to a rise in stockpiles last week, however, signs of more falls in OPEC production are likely to keep that concern at bay. A Bloomberg survey suggests output fell to 31.93mb/d in April, down from 31.97mb/d in March. In base metals, easing trade tensions and a more conciliatory tone from the U.S on Russian sanctions saw investors’ concerns over supply disruptions ease. Combined with the stronger USD, investor appetite for base metals suffered as a result. Aluminium prices managed to stay relatively unchanged, despite U.S Treasury Secretary Mnuchin talking about the possibility of lifting sanctions on Rusal. The rest of the complex was weaker, copper down over -0.9%, and zinc prices plunging 2.4%. Yields rose with the U.S 2y up +1.63 bps to 2.504% and 10y +1.13 bps to 2.964%.

On the data roll, the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) said its index of national manufacturing activity in the U.S dropped to a reading of 57.3 last month (58.5 expected) from 59.3 in March. The measure of employment dropped from 57.3 in March to 54.2 and the ISM said there were indications that labour and skill shortages were affecting production output. The new orders index was slightly down to 61.2 this month, while the prices index increased 1.2 points to 79.3 (78.5 expected), the highest reading since April 2011. U.S construction spending unexpectedly fell in March as a sharp decline in home-building led to the biggest drop in investment in private construction projects in more than seven years. The Commerce Department said on Tuesday construction spending tumbled -1.7%. February data was revised to show construction spending increasing +1.0% instead of the previously reported +0.1% gain. Across the pond, the manufacturing sector activity in the UK economy eased more-than-expected in the month of April, missing market expectations, the latest data from Markit revealed on Tuesday. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in the UK arrived at 53.9 points in March, as compared to a previous 54.9 (revised down from 55.1) reading. Markets had predicted the PMI to tick lower to 54.8.

The Trump administration said on Monday that it would delay a decision to impose steel and aluminium tariffs on the European Union, Canada and Mexico for another 30 days, giving key allies a reprieve as the White House tries to extract concessions from trading partners who have resisted those demands. The administration, which granted temporary exemptions to a handful of countries in March, said it had reached initial agreements with Argentina, Australia and Brazil that would allow them to avoid the tariffs, at least for now. Navarro Says the U.S. won't further extend Canada, Mexico tariff relief. The European Union’s exemption from U.S. steel and aluminium tariffs was extended because of promising trade talks with Washington, U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said on Tuesday, adding that he does not expect the practice to continue.

PRECIOUS: Gold extended its losses overnight in-line with the broad acceleration of the Greenback, testing the 200 dma ($1305.00) and closing the session right on it. Gold opened yesterday's session around $1315 - similar to the previous day - edging up towards $1316 in the opening few minutes, then proceeded to slowly grind it's way lower throughout the day. With a number of major markets in Asia and Europe closed (China, HK, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia), flows were extremely light with the metal continuing to decline steadily to the 200 dma. There were a number of specs 'stop hunting' right around the $1305 support and we briefly dipped through to a low of $1302.30. There was considerable demand there however and the stop hunting did not pay off. Right around this time too the U.S equity markets were trading lower and the gold caught a bid as a result back toward $1307. With the USD still rallying late into the session the recovery for gold was limited the metal closing right on $1305. The $1300-1305 area is critical for the gold with the 200 dma, 50% Fibonacci retracement (Dec 17-present) at $1301.30 and the psychological $1300 all in this band. If we break and close below $1300, it opens the risk of a move back toward $1263-65. That being said, there is also a case to be made that this could be the ideal place to watch for a reversal in the metal. We have bounced off this area ($1300-1307) 3 times since January, and having now completed a multi month corrective phase, we could punch higher. Bottom line, how price action develops in this $1300-1310 area will likely be important both to the precious metals complex and to the broader USD in general. Important components to watch will be ETF flows, the trend of the dollar and whether Geo-political concerns, sanctions concerns and trade war rhetoric continues to ease.

With the return of China today after a 2 day hiatus, the market was expecting some bargain hunting from them. This saw some early speculative demand across the precious complex, particularly for gold and silver, which saw them rally some $3 and $0.07 respectively prior to Shanghai stepping in. Once the SGE opened for business there was some moderate demand from them and the precious complex whole picked up. This was also assisted in part by the USD giving back a little of the overnight gains made against the G10. Gold gathered momentum and steadily made its way north to $1310, where it began to run into some offers. It did not back off however pushing up to a $1311.80 high and then consolidate between $1310-11 during the China lunch break. The SGE premium over the first session was solid at around $8.00-9.00, which was about a dollar or so higher than last Friday. Investors will now be waiting for today's FOMC to gain a better understanding of the metals (and of course USD's) direction in the short-medium term. In other markets equities are generally trading lower on the day, at time of writing the Nikkei is down -0.3%, Shanghai Composite -0.4% and Hang Seng -0.6%, while the ASX200 is the outlier up +0.45% so far. Crude oil is currently firmer WTI +0.4% at $67.51 and Brent +0.1% intra-day at $73.20. The USD after trading a little higher early morning has retreated a little vs. the G10, most notably vs the AUD which was trading below 0.7500 but now sits just above there at 0.7505.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

 

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 26 Apr 2018

MARKETS/MACRO: The Dow and S&P500 ended a volatile session slightly higher Wednesday, with the two market gauges erasing early losses to turn positive in afternoon trade as strong corporate earnings - Boeing/Facebook/Anthem - appeared to overshadow an ongoing rise in bond yields. The DJIA gained +59.7 points (0.25%), to 24,083.83, the S&P500 advanced +4.84 points (+0.18%), to 2,639.40 and The NASDAQ Composite cooled -3.615 points (-0.05%), to 6,513.94. The best performing sector was Telecom Services (+0.81%), while REITs struggled ( -0.27%). European equity markets ticked back from Tuesday's gains as investor's reacted to a +3.00% U.S 10y bond yield. The Eurofirst 300 Index slid -11.29 points (-0.75%), to 1,491.73 and the Euro Stoxx retreated -2.94 points, or -0.77% to 380.17. Regionally the DAX shrugged off -1.02%, FTSE100 -0.62% and CAC40 -0.57%. The U.S 10y Treasury yield stayed above the 3.0% psychological level yesterday, rising to the day’s high of 3.0334% before easing off into the close at 3.0259%. The higher interest rates helped to lift the USD higher, with the Dollar index rising +0.54% to 91.256 on the day. USDJPY jumped higher by +0.6% to 109.43 while the EURUSD eased -0.6% to 1.2161. In commodities, Aluminium prices rose +0.8% over the session and it seems the volatility that has typified the market in recent weeks has abated. This has been assisted by Monday’s decision from the U.S to ease sanctions on Rusal and news that Glencore has restarted aluminium purchases from the Russian company. Nickel prices rose +1.1% as the Philippines government continued to move forwards with a plan that will limit the amount of land that miners can use at any given time. Oil gyrated on the day eventually settling higher - WTI up +$0.31 (+0.465) to $68.01/barrel. Early on, crude fell -0.9% on news that US oil inventories increased a larger-than-expected 2.17 million barrels last week as refinery utilisation ticked lower. However, prices rose in the afternoon as attention turned towards the prospects of a new nuclear agreement with Iran, which President Macron is trying to broker.

On the data front it was a very quiet session, U.S mortgage applications the only release of note, the figure dipping slightly (-0.2%) after increasing last week.

PRECIOUS: Bullion remained on the back foot overnight, with decent selling seen throughout the session on COMEX as yields, the USD and equities all caught a bid. We opened just above $1330 in Asia yesterday and gold had a very brief spike to the highs within the opening hour of trade. From there though it was all one way traffic lower, with COMEX offering clearly outweighing the very modest Chinese demand, with the premium still sitting unchanged around $7-8 on the SGE. By the time London traders stepped in we were sitting around $1325, with some SE Asian and Indian demand propping things up around that level. We broke lower however testing the previous days lows and held there, awaiting NY. Once U.S traders joined the party, the 10y yield began to break further above 3.0%, which prompted a sweep lower through the 100dma in gold. Once again though there were sizeable bids looking to the fade the dip and we ultimately held above $1320 and closed at $1322.50. With a number of factors posing headwinds for the gold price at the moment - rising USD, higher yields, cooling U.S relations with N Korea, stabilising base metals, cleaner positioning, China closed 2 days next week - traders will be looking for a clear break of $1320, to target the next support at $1304.00 ($200 dma). We tend to agree with consensus that gold will likely pullback further, although we do excercise caution, especially considering the previous 2 times the 100 dma has been tested (March), there was a sharp 3% reversal in the following days. The next risk event is the ECB rate decision tonight, which should be instrumental in the next direction for precious.

The market today was very quiet, gold confined to a $3 range with very little seen in the way of flows. COMEX traffic was still skewed to the sell side, while very light buying from China was enough to balance things out. Silver and the PGM's were also very quiet the former inching slightly higher throughout the day, while the latter both traded sideways. The dollar was a little softer over the day, down between 10-20 pips vs. the G10 which kept gold bid. In other markets, Asian equities were soft despite the rise of their North American counterparts. At time of writing the Hang Seng is down -0.7%, Shanghai Composite -0.9% and ASX200 -0.20%, while the Nikkei has bucked the trend and is in the black up +0.55%. The U.S 10y yield is consolidating close to the overnight highs. As mentioned earlier market focus will be on the ECB today, particularly Governor Draghi's speech where it is expected that he will outline the next stage of the central banks extremely loose monetary policy. There is also U.S jobless claims, durable and capital goods orders and wholesale inventories data to look out for.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Friday 20 Apr 2018

MARKETS/MACRO: U.S. stocks ended lower on Thursday as the risk on sentiment cooled, Consumer Staples, Real Estate and Tech all sliding. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -83.18 points, or -0.34%, to 24,664.89, the S&P500 retreated -15.51 points, or -0.57%, to 2,693.13 and the NASDAQ Composite slumped -57.18 points, or -0.78%, to 7,238.06. The best performing sector was Financials (+1.52%), while losses in Consumer Staples (-3.14%) dragging the market lower. European bourses on the other hand closed with very modest gains, buoyed by a stack of corporate earnings releases. The Euro First 300 crept up +0.28 of a point, or +0.02% to 1,496.57 and the Euro Stoxx 600 trickled up +0.09 of a point (+0.02%) to 381.95. The dollar, meanwhile, continued to trade with a bid bias with the dollar index trading just shy of the 90 handle again, helped in part by a big pull back in the Pound. This after comments from BoE Governor Carney who said that an interest rate rise this year is ‘likely’, which was interpreted by markets as an explicit attempt to bring down the May meeting’s market pricing after softer wage and inflation data earlier this week. The Euro remained relatively unchanged, buoyed in part by the weakness in Sterling, while the commodity currencies fell in line with softer oil prices. The rally in base metals which has been relentless this week took pause overnight with most constituents lower on the day. Aluminium lost -2.0%, its first pull-back in four days, while Nickel and zinc were both down -1.3% respectively, though not before Nickel had surged to a three year high. Media reported that the Russian Government is considering aid to the world's largest aluminium producer Rusal, following LME and Comex delivery sanctions. Bond markets suffered a heavy session as sovereign supply concerns and rising commodity prices pushed yields higher and curves steeper. Swap spreads narrowed slightly, but credit widened as supply lifted and the market remains vulnerable. The U.S 10yr yield increased +3.7bps to 2.909% and the 2yr yield fell -0.18bps to 2.427%.

On the data front U.S initial jobless claims dipped -1k to 232k in the week ended April 21, slightly higher than what economists surveyed by Bloomberg at 230k, while continuing claims fell by -15k to 1.863 million (1.845 million expected). Claims rose sharply in New York and California, but those increases were offset by declines almost everywhere else. Still in the U.S the Philadelphia Fed said its diffusion index for current general activity inched up to 23.2 in April (21 expected) from 22.3 in March, with a positive reading indicating growth in regional manufacturing activity. The modest uptick by the headline index was partly due to stronger job growth, as the number of employees index rose to 27.1 in April from 25.6 in March. Across the Atlantic, U.K. retail sales missed forecasts, the headline figure falling -1.2% MoM in March (-0.6% expected) after freezing cold weather last month kept shoppers home. Ex Autos and Fuel the retail sales figure dropped -0.5% MoM (-0.4% expected, +0.4% prior). The Eurozone’s current-account surplus eased to 35.1 billion Euro's in February, down from 39.0 billion Euro's in January, with the annual surplus of 3.7% of GDP, now sitting +0.3% higher than a year ago.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney on Thursday dampened wide-spread expectations for an interest rate hike in May, pointing out there were also "other meetings" this year. Sterling dropped almost a cent against the U.S. dollar to its lowest level since early April on the back of the comments, in which Carney highlighted "mixed" economic data. "I don't want to get too focused on the precise timing, it is more about the general path", he told BBC news, while adding that a rate hike this year was "likely". He said Britain should prepare for "a few interest rate rises over the next few years". A firm majority of economists in a Reuters poll published earlier this week said they expect the BoE will raise interest rates to a new post-financial crisis high of 0.75% in May.

PRECIOUS: It was another volatile day for the precious complex gold pushing higher during Asia and early London, only to erase the gains and some by close as the USD changed course. USD was broadly sold off from the Asia open which helped gold trade through $1350 and gain support beneath that level despite some early Chinese liquidation. USDCNY+CNH was sold off fairly aggressively thereafter however and AUD was strong which led to some demand during the Asia afternoon. Base metals also began to surge again which lifted the complex further, the yellow metal trading through $1352 then receding slightly. Gold was not necessarily the centre of attention but it continued to push to the daily high of $1354.35 (just shy of the previous days high) as European traders walked in. The dollar then began to recover and UST 10y yields began to accelerate higher which dampened golds sheen and it pulled back towards $1352 again. Around this time a headline came out that the sanctioned Russian company Rusal (world's largest producer of aluminium), which is at the centre of the issues surrounding the base metals market, may be nationalised in order to prevent it from failing. Aluminium plummeted $2400 on the news, copper fell back underneath $7000 and the precious metals all fell in sympathy. Stops in gold were triggered on the move through $1350 sharply dropping to $1345. From there the yellow metal continued to slide, although found some support in the low $1340's before recovering into the close at around $1346. Palladium was exceptionally volatile once again, surging during the Asia PM/Early London in line with the base metals to the highest level since late Feb ($1056.00). When the base turned though so did the Pd, right back off to $1024.50 and closed the day ultimately softer at $1030 (-0.5%).

It has been a choppy week across most markets, yet today was a little quieter in Asia with traders enjoying the breather, gold trading slightly lower on the day. The yellow metal opened right where we left off and traded sideways between $1345-46 leading into the SGE open. There was some small net buying from Chinese investors on the open, although this soon gave way and spot gold fell a few dollars 30 minutes later towards $1342. There were some bids on Comex around that cash level and the market held there into the afternoon. Silver tracked gold throughout the day, coming off following the SGE open, yet holding above $17.15 and the PGM's flat-lined. In other markets, equities are lower the Nikkei currently -0.15%, Shanghai Composite -1.2%, Hang Seng -0.4% and ASX200 -0.2% and the USD is firmer against the G10 (USDJPY +0.3% to 170.65). Crude is currently flat and the base metals are all softer (Aluminium -2.5% and Nickel -3.5%).

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.