DAILY REPORT : Wed 21 Feb 2018

MACRO: Bond yields continued to climb higher on Tuesday and Walmart reported an earnings miss to spook investors and weigh upon equity markets in the U.S. The DJIA ended trade under 25,000 points as losses accelerated during the afternoon, ending the session -1.01% down at 24,964.75 points. Technology (+0.25%) was the only sector of the S&P 500 to end in positive territory, with the bourse sliding -0.58% to 2,716.26 points, while the Nasdaq composite eased just -0.07% to finish at 7,234.308 points. Treasury yields pushed higher on Tuesday, however tailed off modestly late in trade. A heavily oversubscribed two-year note auction saw 2.255% yield, while the 10-year traded to a 2.926% high before closing around 2.884%. The greenback continued to see supportive price action on Tuesday, finishing higher against all G10 currencies. The DXY index ended the session around +0.7% higher, breaking above 107.00 against the yen, while the euro lost touch with 1.24 and printed a 1.2320 session low to shed -0.55%. Oil futures finished mixed on Tuesday, with WTI trading higher on the back of reduced supplies to Cushing due to restricted pipeline capacity out of Canada. The U.S. benchmark added around +0.4% to USD 61.79 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped -0.6% to around USD $65.25 per barrel. In European trade on Tuesday, equities were generally higher on the back of a weaker euro. The Europe Stoxx 600 gained +0.60% to 380.51 points, the German Dax jumped +0.83% to 12,487.90 points, while in the U.K. the FTSE 100 ended just -0.01% lower as HSBC and BHP reported disappointing financial updates.

PRECIOUS: It was a similar story on Tuesday, with the dollar bullying gold lower and losses accelerating upon New York's return following the President's Day holiday. Bullion drifted lower during Asian hours, with a lack of physical interest to prop up the market as Shanghai continued their New Year holidays. Interest around USD $1,335 kept price action buoyant during European hours, however the figure soon gave way once New York opened and the greenback turned bid, triggering a stop loss run to USD $1,330. Late session trade took bullion underneath USD $1,330, however softer treasury yields and a lack of follow through selling restricted any further declines. Asian trade on Wednesday saw bullion take a further leg lower, albeit within a narrow range to test support at USD $1,325. Continued dollar strength and higher treasury yields should continue to see the yellow metal under pressure over then near-term, while the return of China will be closely to watched for any renewed physical interest in Asia to stem the weakness. Interest around USD $1,325 will be the key for price direction in the coming days/weeks, as a sustained move through this level should extend toward USD $1,303 - $1,310. Focus now turns to the Fed minutes released today, with further data releases including U.K. Jobs data, U.S. Markit manufacturing, services and composite PMI prints and existing home sales.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 15 Feb 2018

MACRO: The US Labor Department reported CPI surged 0.5% in January, the rise exceeded economists 0.4% prediction and was the largest increase in 5 months. Core CPI rose 0.3% in January following the 0.2% increase in December. Retail sales fell by 0.3% in January following the downwardly revised flat reading in December. Retail sales ex-autos were flat. Business inventories rose 0.4% in December, matching the 0.4% recorded in November. Sales rose by 0.6% and the ratio of inventories to sales was unchanged at 1.33. US equities overcame early inflation concerns to rise sharply through the session, the major bourses have enjoyed a four day winning streak since the big sell-off last week. The Dow added 253.04 points, or 1.03%, to 24,893.49; the S&P 500 gained 35.69 points, or 1.34% to 2,698.63, while the Nasdaq rose 130.11 points, or 1.86%, to 7,143.62. There were wins for financials (+2.32%) and tech (1.95%) while utilities (-1.19%) led the laggards. European shares were higher, the EuroSTOXX advanced 3.95 points, or 1.04%, to 374.53, the German DAX put on 142.66 points, or 1.17%, to 12,339.16, and the London FTSE 100 ticked up 45.96 points, or 0.64%, to 7,213.97. Further volatility in the currency markets overnight on the CPI data, the US dollar index spiked above 90 on the release before tumbling 1.1% to 89.087. Inversely, the EUR dipped briefly below 1.23 before surging up to 1.2462, while USD /JPY traded down to 106.75. US treasury yields powered higher, the 2 year yield rose 6.78 bps to 2.1718% and the 10 year yield climbed 8.74 bps to 2.9168%, In the commodities, oil markets were higher as the EIA reported US inventories rose less than expected, Brent rose 2.81% to $64.48 while WTI firmed 2.74% to $60.81. Base metals were broadly higher, with nickel (4.83%) leading the gains. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei is at +1.43%, the Shanghai composite is at +0.45%, the Hang Seng at +1.61%, and the ASX S&P 200 is at +0.90%. Tonight we have weekly jobless claims, the Empire State index, the Philly Fed index, producer prices, industrial production, capacity utilisation, and the NAHB home builders index out of the US; and December balance of trade from the Eurozone.

PRECIOUS: Wild session for the precious in NY following the CPI data release. Gold opened at $1329 in Asia and traded steadily higher despite the SGE premium easing to $2-3 which prompted decent selling out of China. The market reached $1336 fuelled by weakness in USD/JPY, which dipped below 107. We saw a drift lower into London open and the metal remained around $1330-31 through the AM session. As soon as the higher-than-expected US CPI numbers were reported the yellow metal gapped $11 lower to $1319, before rebounding quickly to the NY open level. Gold surged a further $20 to $1350 as the USD was broadly sold, there was some resistance at this level and we saw relative calm for the next couple of hours as the market hovered between $1345-50. Another wave of buying propelled the metal through the $1350 level the days high of $1355, before settling to close just ahead of $1350. Silver followed a similar trajectory, dipping to the low of $16.41 just after NY open before climbing almost 3%. Big moves for the PGMs also, platinum and palladium added 2.7% and 1.6% respectively. The Philadelphia gold and silver index added 5.46%. The SPDR Gold Trust holdings were unchanged at 823.66 metric tonnes. In todays trading, gold has tested the overnight high of $1355 a couple of times, volumes are pretty thin with SGE closed for Chinese New Year. The yellow metal is at $1354.20 as I write. Silver is edging higher, the grey metal sits at $16.91 as I write. PGMs are higher, with platinum trading above $1000 for the first time in a couple of weeks. Gold is likely to find downside support around $1341. On the topside, a break above yesterdays NY high should see the metal testing the Jan high at $1265.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

DAILY REPORT : Friday 09 Feb 2018

MACRO: US equities were hammered once again amid concerns over rising bond yields and inflation. The Dow dropped 1032.89 points, or 4.15%, to 23,860.46; the S&P 500 sold off 100.6 points, or 3.75% to 2,581.00, while the Nasdaq fell 274.824 points, or 3.90%, to 6,777.159. Tech (-4.22%), consumer discretionary (-4.02%) and industrials (-3.95%) led a broad decline in the markets. European shares were lower, the EuroSTOXX lost 6.1 points, or 1.60%, to 374.03, the German DAX dropped 330.14 points, or 2.62%, to 12,260.29, and the London FTSE 100 shed 108.73 points, or 1.49%, to 7,170.69. In the currencies, the US dollar index was flat at 90.25, the EUR traded up to 1.2291, while USD/JPY traded down to 108.66. The 2 year yield rose 0.63 bps to 2.1298% and the 10 year yield climbed 1.17 bps to 2.8476%, Oil extended its losing streak on the back of record weekly US crude output and a rise in inventories, Brent eased 1.54% to $64.50 while WTI gave up 1.60% to $60.80. Base metals were mixed, with zinc (+1.23%) the best performer. In US economic data, initial jobless claims fell by 9k to 221k in the week ending February 3. Continuing jobless claims decreased by 33k to 1.92M. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei is at -3.22, the Shanghai composite is at -4.59%, the Hang Seng at -3.80%, and the ASX S&P 200 is at -0.90%. Not much on the data front tonight, just wholesale trade numbers out of the US.

PRECIOUS: Choppy session for the precious amid carnage in the stock market. Gold opened at $1318 in Asia and was sold steadily lower through the day as USD/CNY made a move higher. The SGE premium at $9-10 ensured there was onshore demand in China, which supported the market around $1310 during Asian hours. The metal dipped to the days low of $1307 during the London AM session but it's fortunes were reversed once NY came in. While the rout in equities intensified and USD/JPY dropped below 109 the yellow metal found a bid and traded to a session high $1321. Resting orders on COMEX around the $1320 level appeared to cap the market and gold eased to $1318 at the close. Silver printed a fresh 2018 low of $16.25 before finding buying support out of NY, the grey metal finished ahead at $16.38. Palladium's tough stretch continued as the metal dipped below $960 for the first time since October of last year. The Philadelphia gold and silver index lost 0.85%. The SPDR Gold Trust holdings fell 0.07% to 8266.31 metric tonnes. In todays trading, gold had another go at $1320 early in the Asian session but was unable to punch through. The market has eased little with the SGE premium slightly lower at $8-9 over loco London. The yellow metal is at $1317.30 as I write. Silver is has been range-bound, the grey metal sits at $16.38 as I write. PGMs are flat, with palladium keeping it's head above $960 following the sell off last night. Gold will find initial resistance at the $1320 that has held a couple of times over the last 24 hours. On the lower side we should see some support around $1308-10, a move through there will see the yellow metal testing the psychological $1300 level.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 20 Feb 2018

MACRO: Global markets traded in a subdued fashion on Monday with the U.S. on leave for the President’s Day Holiday. U.S. equity future eased modestly, while the greenback rose modestly against majors to see the DXY index end around +0.15% higher. European stock markets traded under pressure on Monday, handing back some of Friday’s gains amid light volumes. The Stoxx Europe 600 closed the session -0.63% lower at 378.24 points, while the German Dax pulled back -0.53% to 12,385.60 points. In the U.K. the FTSE 100 ended -0.64% lower at 7,247.66 points as consumer goods heavyweight Reckitt Benckiser Group PLC collapsed -7.51% after announcing flat like-for-like 2017 sales, while mining stocks traded lower following an announcement by the U.S. Government late on Friday that it’s considering tariffs to curb imports of steel and aluminium. Oil futures turned higher on Monday, as concerns over tensions in the Middle East continued to support prices and Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih stated that producers should keep production cuts in place for the whole year. WTI added around +1.3% to USD $62.35 per barrel to follow last week’s +4.2% return, while Brent crude ended +1.1% higher at USD $65.56 per barrel after a +3.3% jump last week.

PRECIOUS: A modest offered bias for gold on Monday, as an early Asian push above USD $1,350 was short lived and the metal spent the remainder of the session trickling lower. The price action generally followed dollar flows in thin U.S. holiday trade, with short-term spec interest weighing upon the metal as it pulled away from USD $1,350. Underlying interest toward the recent low of USD $1,345 kept the price action buoyant within a narrow range into the early close, seeing bullion shed around -0.2% to end at USD $1,346.60. Downwards pressure on bullion accelerated during Asian trade on Tuesday, with the dollar continuing its recent upward trajectory. The greenback made notable gains against the safehaven yen, extending to a 106.95 session high to add +0.33%. With China still on leave due to New Year celebrations, there was little interest in Asia to stop bullion moving through the recent support level of USD $1,345, however moves to the down-side continue to remain shallow and bids toward USD $1,340 kept further declines in check. Should we see further dollar appreciation, expect to see support broadly around USD $1,330 - $1,335 tested, while topside resistance cuts in initially around $1,345, with stronger resistance at USD $1,350. Silver extended recent declines in Asia today to test toward USD $16.50, while platinum eased toward USD $1,000 and palladium held a narrow range. Data releases today include German ZEW survey results and Eurozone consumer confidence.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Wed 14 Feb 2018

MARKETS/MACRO: U.S. stocks edged slightly higher on Tuesday, but were still showing signs of renewed intra-day turbulence as markets struggled to extend a powerful two session recovery to a third day. This ahead of key inflation data and doubts that last week’s brutal sell-off will be short-lived. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained +39.18 points, or +0.16%, to 24,640.45, the S&P500 rose +6.94 points, or +0.26%, to 2,662.94 and the NASDAQ Composite inclined +31.546 points, or +0.45%, to 7,013.51. The best performing sector on the day was Telecom Services (+0.58%) while the worst performing sector was Energy (-0.34%). European equities failed to make it a second consecutive day in the black despite advances in mining and travel shares. The Euro First 300 Index retreated -9.26 points, or -0.63% to 1,454.02 and the Euro Stoxx 600 gave up -2.35 points, or -0.63% to 370.58. Regionally the DAX shed -0.7%, FTSE100 -0.13% and CAC40 -0.6%. Crude oil prices were relatively unchanged (WTI -$0.13 to $59.16), as reports suggesting further falls in global inventories eased concerns around rising U.S output. The IEA reported that oil inventories in the OECD fell by the most in more than six years. They now suggest they are only 52 million barrels above the five year average, which is a drop of ~80% from this time last year. This comes on the back of data released earlier this week showing further falls in OPEC production. OPEC’s monthly report highlighted that compliance with the production cut agreement climbed to 136% in January, the highest level achieved since it was implemented at the start of 2017. The DXY softened by -0.6% to 89.663, reflected mostly in USDJPY and EURUSD pairs, while the cable failed to push higher last night despite a UK CPI print that came in a touch hotter than expected.

A quiet night in terms of data with the market zeroing in on today's U.S CPI print. The only data of note from the U.S was NFIB Small Business Optimism index, which rose by 2 points to 106.9 (105.3 expected), close to November’s 107.5 reading that was highest in monthly data to 1986. 32% of respondents said now was a good time to expand businesses, exceeding all monthly figures to 1986 and quarterly readings back to 1973 according to JP Morgan analysts. Six of the 10 components that make up the small-business optimism index increased in January, producing one of the strongest readings in the 45 year history of the survey. The figures show sustained, sturdy business sentiment since the November 2016 election. Across the Atlantic, annual inflation for the UK remained at 3% in January, compared with estimated reading of 2.9%. Inflation is well above the Bank of England’s target of 2% sparking speculation of a rate rise in May.PRECIOUS: Gold was steadier on Tuesday, with the metal advancing towards $1330 during the London session and again at the back-end of New York as the dollar dipped. The metal opened the day close to the lows and progressed slowly higher as China opened. The premium has understandably deteriorated as we drift closer and closer to the Chinese holiday break, falling to about $6 yesterday and trading continuously lower throughout the session. Spot gold caught a bid though trading up through $1325 as the USDJPY broke through 108, then continued on to just short of $1330 by the time London traders manned their desks. The metal then turned lower during the NY morning, trading back down towards the opening levels, yet recovered late in the session to close around $1330. Flow-wise there has been a definite downturn in volumes both through Comex and ETF's over the past week, with this expected to continue through Chinese new year. Resistance currently sits at around $1350, while support at $1320-25 looks strong for now.

Today marks the final day before China takes a week long holiday for their Lunar New Year celebrations, and as expected, volumes were again lower than the previous day. We opened around $1330 this morning and the yellow metal was swiftly paid higher, with some light stops tripped around $1330.50. The move was mainly based on the weaker dollar, particularly against the USDJPY which has fallen to a low so far of 107.00 (-0.7%). The yellow metal has continued to angle higher throughout the day currently trading through $1335 and holding above there in line with the soft Greenback. In other markets equities are mixed the Nikkei at time of writing is trading down -0.75%, Shanghai Composite is down -0.3%, ASX200 is -0.25%, while the Hang Seng is bucking the trend up +0.9%. WTI crude is currently little firmer on the day at $59.17 (+$0.21 or +0.36%) and the USD as mentioned is currently weaker across the board - USDJPY -0.95 points on the day at 106.90, EURUSD +39 points at 1.2390, USDCHF -40 pips at 0.9310. All eyes will be focussed on todays U.S CPI print to gain more understanding to the path of the Fed's monetary policy, with this data likely to instill some volatility. We also have U.S retail sales, Euro Zone GDP and Industrial Production and German CPI.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 08 Feb 2018

MARKETS/MACRO: U.S equity markets closed modestly lower on Wednesday as volatility continued to moderate, the Dow still spanning 500 points mind, as investors still struggle to adjust to an investment environment marked by both rising bond yields and signs of inflation. In the end the DJIA softened -19.42 points (-0.08%) to 24,893.35, the S&P500 retreated -13.48 points (-0.50%) to 2,681.66 and the Nasdaq Composite was hit hardest down -63.899 points (-0.90%) to 7,051.983. Things were significantly more positive in Europe for equities, the major indices snapping a seven day losing streak and closing strongly in the black. The Euro First 300 index surged +29.51 points (+2.02%) to 1,492.15 and the Euro Stoxx 600 rallied +7.34 points (+1.97%) to 380.13. Regionally the FTSE100 advanced +1.93% to 7,279.42, the DAX leapt +1.6% to 12,590.43 and the CAC40 rose +1.82% to 5,255.90. The USD rose against the G10 with bipartisan support for a budget deal sending yields higher. The Dollar Index gained nearly +0.8% to 90.26 with EURUSD down -0.9% to 1.2260. The US 10Y bond yield gained another 3bp to 2.84% on top of the near 10bp rise on Tuesday and the 30Y yield gained another 5bp back to 3.11%. Crude oil prices collapsed after data showed a sharp rise in U.S oil production, WTI falling -$1.52 (-2.4%) to $61.87 on the day. EIA reported that last week’s output rose +332k b/d from the previous week to 10.2 mio b/d. This raised concerns among investors that the rising oil prices would push U.S production to levels that could potentially wipe out the production cuts that OPEC have instigated. The report also showed that inventories jumped higher, up 1.89 million barrels to 420.25 million barrels last week. This all came on the back of revised forecasts for U.S production from the EIA. They now see domestic output hitting 11 million b/d by November.

Congressional leaders clinched a 2 year deal to lift strict budget caps on defence and domestic spending, putting an end to a series of short-term spending bills and shutdown fights that have been prevalent in Washington the past few months. The deal is expected to increase defence and domestic spending by roughly $300 billion over two years, according to administration and congressional sources, as well as lift the debt ceiling and include tens of billions in disaster aid.New York Fed President William Dudley took part in a panel discussion on banking culture during which he said the recent drop in the stock market wasn’t big enough to alter the economic outlook. While Chicago Fed President Charles Evans (non-voter who dissented last meeting), remained dovish, stating that: “With the data I see today, my policy strategy would be to keep policy on hold until mid-year or so in order to assess the incoming inflation data”.

PRECIOUS: Gold was again under pressure Wednesday in what has been a wild week for the precious metals. The stronger dollar overnight weighed on the gold which tested as low as $1311.65 in volatile trade again, down an additional -0.7% on the prior day. Yesterday's session began in a reasonably positive light with steady onshore buying seen from China as the USDCNY lifted the SGE premium up towards $9-10. Spot gold as a result made a very gradual ascent towards $1332 ($1325 open), the peak hit right at the China PM session close, before giving back ground as Comex offers mounted above $1330 (cash). As the USD and yields continued to climb throughout the European and U.S sessions investors continued to liquidate longs till around midday in NY. Recovering $4-5 from the lows into the close at $1318. Long Comex net positioning continues to reduce with the April open interest already down ~15k lots between Monday and Tuesday. ETF investors have also been reducing holdings since the start of the week, with fund holdings depreciating ~7.4 tonnes on Tuesday according to BBG data - the biggest decline in nearly a year. The SPDR ETF (largest single gold ETF) had its holdings fall ~1.4 % earlier in the week, reflecting the funds worst single-day decline since 2016. Looking at the charts support for gold sits around $1312-14 (head and shoulders) and more importantly $1300-1303 (50 dma and psycholgical 1300 level), while resistance will sit between $1325-1335 for now. Elsewhere, the World Gold Council announced that global gold mine production had risen for a ninth consecutive year in 2017. Platinum and palladium fell between -1% and -2% yesterday as specs liquidated positions. This was despite PGM producers remaining subdued about their outlook. An industry conference heard companies warn that PGM production will remain flat at best, as the industry grapples with high costs of production and a lack of capital investment.

It was a choppy day today for the precious metals, gold initially firming in early trade and then succumbing to fresh cycle lows following a surging RMB during the afternoon. Gold opened at $1318 this morning initially inching its way a few dollars higher as some spec shorts were happy to lock in profits. There was consistent selling on Comex early on however and offers above the $1320 cash level were enough to prevent an advance. When China opened and due to the USDCNY rally overnight, as predicted, the buying was minimal. Spot gold slowly began to work its way lower with ongoing liquidation seen from managed money and leveraged clients - ie. those who were still buying aggressively above $1340. Gold meandered its way back toward $1313 ($1315 Apr gold) throughout the SGE AM and there was some 5000 lots (GCG8) that churned through at that level. We eventually broke lower however, spurred along by Chinese trade data which saw a much narrower surplus than what was expected ($20.34 bln vs $54.65 bln expected). This was driven by an unexpected surge in imports of +36.9% (10.6% expected, +4.5% prior), while exports only rose +11.1% (10.6% expected, +10.9% prior). USDCNY after trading down to 6.2815 ripped higher to 6.3449 and sent gold spiralling through the overnight low down to $1310.10. As I write gold is holding precariously between $1310-1313 and the USDCNY has relinquished some of the gains to 6.3214. Ahead today on the data calendar look out for the BoE rate decision and U.S jobless claims. 

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

 

DAILY REPORT : Monday 19 Feb 2018

MACRO: U.S. housing starts rebounded during January, jumping +9.7% MoM (exp: +3.5%) to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.326 million units (exp: 1.234 million). The print was supported by strength across single-family housing, while building permits surged to the highest level since June 2007, gaining +7.4% MoM (exp: Flat) to an annual rate of 1.396 million (exp: 1.3 million). The U.S. import price index increased +1.0% MoM during January (exp: +0.6%) to follow a +0.2% gain the month prior. Prices saw broad gains led by oil, while excluding petrol, prices gained +0.5% (exp: +0.1%) from a flat read during December. On an annualised basis prices increased +3.6% (exp: 3.0%) from 3.2% previously. The University of Michigan’s gauge of consumer sentiment in the U.S. edged modestly higher during February, printing 99.9 (exp: 95.5), to mark the second highest reading in 14 years. Both current conditions and expectations recorded strong increases. Equity markets in the U.S. finished Friday generally higher, seeing both the DJIA and S&P 500 to their sixth consecutive session gain. The announcement by Special Counsel Robert Mueller accusing 13 Russian nationals and three Russian entities of interfering in the U.S. elections did however see late session volatility, dragging the major bourse’s away from session highs. The DJIA closed +0.08% higher at 25,519.38 points, while the S&P 500 tacked on +0.04% to 2,732.22 points and the Nasdaq handed back -0.23% at 7,239.465. On a weekly basis the DJIA gained +4.3% to mark the best weekly performance since November 2016, matched a by a +4.3% jump by the S&P 500 for the best weekly result since January 2013.

PRECIOUS: Concerns over inflation and a softer greenback kept bullion buoyant last week, with the yellow metal extending to a near 3-week high on Friday to book the best weekly result in over 12-months. We saw modest early Asian selling during Friday's session, albeit amid light volumes with the majority of the region on holiday. Further dollar weakness, notably against the yen underpinned the metal throughout the afternoon, attempting a number of breaks above USD $1,360 into European trade, before briefly pushing above the figure to print the session high of USD $1,361.80. U.S. interest saw the metal pull back from the European highs, with a reversal to the dollar (potential position squaring into President's Day) weighing upon bullion and testing through USD $1,350 in late session trade. The latest COTR shows a healthy correction to gold positioning, while notably both palladium and silver sit toward last year's lows. Asia kicked off the week in muted fashion as China continues to celebrate the New Year, generally tracking either side of the key USD $1,350 pivot point. A mild offered bias to the greenback saw a brief test through the figure, however the metal spent the afternoon toward the session low of USD $1,346.30 as the DXY index regained the 89.00 handle. Expect price action to remain limited today on account of the U.S. holiday, with moves toward USD $1,345 likely to see support to keep bullion range-bound.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 13 Feb 2018

MACRO: Equity markets in the U.S. continued their recent recovery on Monday, with bargain hunters bidding the major bourses up for the second straight session. The DJIA ended trade +1.70% higher at 24,601.27 points as 28 of the 30 components booked gains, while the S&P 500 saw materials (+2.55%) lead the bourse to a +1.39% return to close at 2,656.00 points. The VIX volatility index weakened further on Monday, sliding around -12% to 25.3. The greenback saw mixed trade on Monday, however ultimately finished the session lower, notably under pressure against the safe-haven yen. At the end of trade the DXY index was trading -0.3% down at 90.18. U.S. treasury yields strengthen further on Monday, seeing the two-year at +0.2bps to 2.075% and the ten-year 0.7bps higher to 2.858%. Crude prices in the U.S. edged modestly higher on Monday, however pared mid-session gains late in trade following and EIA report noting an expected increase in shale production in March. WTI closed just +0.15% higher at USD $59.30 per barrel, while Brent crude slipped into negative territory in the final hours of trade, declining -0.3% to USD $62.60 per barrel.

PRECIOUS: Bullion continued to see strength during Asian trade on Tuesday, with gains underpinned by a softer greenback. There was particular focus against the yen as pair collapsed to around 107.55, threatening a test of the September 2016 low (107.32). The stronger yen propelled bullion through the broad resistance level and overnight high around USD $1,325 - $1,326, triggering a brief but sharp stop loss run to the session high of USD $1,328.60 before offers overcame the bid momentum to cap the move higher. Afternoon profit taking resulted in the yellow metal easing modestly as European names filtered in, with interest toward USD $1,325 evident to restrict further retracement. Recent price action is indicative of short term positioning, with expectations of strength toward USD $1,335 - $1,340 as shorts are further tested. The caveat to a short-term push higher however is the upcoming Chinese New Year holiday which will remove physical demand from the market. Silver continues to test the recent short build up and has extended through USD $16.50, while recent equity strength should support further palladium demand, with USD $1,000 an initial target and key pivot point. Data releases today are unlikely to result in major market moves across the precious, with all eyes tomorrow on German GDP and CPI, Eurozone GDP and the all important U.S. CPI print.

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

DAILY REPORT : Wed 07 Feb 2018

MACRO: The U.S. trade deficit increased 5.3% during December to $53.1 billion, the widest since October 2008 as imports outpaced exports. The Labor Department’s monthly JOLTS report showed job openings decreased 167,000 to a seasonally adjusted 5.8 million during December, led by a decline of 119,000 to the professional and business service sector. The number of workers willingly leaving their jobs increased by 98,000 to 3.259 million, the highest level since January 2001. Equity markets in the U.S. endured a wild ride on Tuesday, however ultimately ended the session in the black following early session weakness. After opening over 500 points lower, the DJIA sharply reversed to book the best single session percentage gain in over 12-months, adding +2.33% to finish at 24,912.77 points. The S&P 500 added +1.74% to 2,695.14 points as materials led the bourse higher, while the Nasdaq Composite ended +2.13% higher. The VIX volatility index pulled back following Monday’s +116% increase, easing around -20% as some stability crept back into the market. Treasury yields were back on the march higher on Tuesday, with the 10-year yield pushing through 2.8% once again.

PRECIOUS: A resurgent greenback kept bullion under pressure on Tuesday as safe-haven interest was further scuttled by a recovering stock market. Asia opened to a stronger precious complex, as early indications from U.S. equity futures markets pointed toward further weakness on Tuesday. After pushing above USD $1,340 in early Shanghai trade, price action remained buoyant above the figure throughout European hours, seeing further support from an offered dollar. What initially looked like a promising session for gold soon reversed course in New York as equities erased early session weakness, the dollar ripped higher and treasury yields popped. Stops around USD $1,340 gave way to interest toward USD $1,335, however the metal soon ran out of supporters to take a fresh leg lower underneath USD $1,330 and then finally collapsed late in trade to a USD $1,321.50 session low. Vols eased into Tuesday’s close as 1m dipped underneath 11, while ETF’s reported modest outflows.

Asian trade on Wednesday saw bullion stage a modest recovery following Tuesday’s collapse, pushing toward USD $1,330 in a generally orderly fashion, however unable to make a meaningful break above the figure. Tuesday’s price action has no doubt spooked investors, in particular fresh long positioning that would have been instigated on the back of the flight out of equity markets. It is worth noting we are seeing a minor slowdown in Chinese demand as we head toward Chinese New Year and this is likely to accelerate and remove some of the supportive interest out of Asia in the coming sessions. Expect to see supportive price action broadly between USD $1,316 - $1,320, while offers around USD $1,330 have capped top-side moves thus far today, however more important levels extend between USD $1,335 - $1,340.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

 

DAILY REPORT : Friday 16 Feb 2018

MACRO: The empire state manufacturing survey showed the pace of growth in business conditions softened during February, with the index declining to 13.1 (exp: 18.0) from 17.7 previously. New orders and shipments index were broadly unchanged. Initial jobless claims in the U.S. pushed higher during the week ended February 10, increasing 7,000 to 230,000 (exp: 228,000). The four-week moving average ticked higher by 3,500 to 228,500, while continue claims added 15,000 to 1.942 million (exp: 1.925 million). The labour department reported PPI final demand increased +0.4% MoM during January to follow a flat read in December. Core PPI (excluding food, energy and trade) also increased +0.4% MoM (exp: +0.2%). Industrial production in the U.S. declined -0.1% MoM during January to follow a downwardly revised +0.4% gain in December (prev: +0.9%). A -1% fall in mining output was the main drag on the headline print, while capacity utilisation eased to 77.5% (exp: 78.0%) from 77.7% previously. Equity markets in the U.S. continued to climb higher on Thursday, booking a fifth consecutive session gain as the DJIA reclaimed the 25,000 handle. Amid volatile trade the S&P 500 was able to recover from early session weakness and book a +1.21% gain to 2,731.20 points, while the DJIA added +1.23% to 25,200.37 points with Cisco Systems surging +4.73% on strong earnings results to underpin the bourse. The greenback continued to slide on Thursday to book a fourth successive session decline, notably losing ground against the yen as investors pile into the safehaven asset. The buck slipped nearly -1% against the yen to test the 106.00 handle, while the euro pushed above 1.25, the pound attempted a move above 1.41 and the franc added +0.7%.

PRECIOUS: Early session malaise was countered by an extension of the recent greenback weakness during afternoon trade in Asia today, supporting bullion toward USD $1,360 in illiquid conditions. With the majority of Asian centres on holiday today, gold spent early session trade edging sideways, while seeing resting interest around the New York close (USD $1,353) to keep pricing buoyant amid a lack of price direction catalysts. Afternoon trade was a different story however, as the dollar took a further leg lower to break below 106.00 against the yen, while the euro continued to climb and print a 3-year high against the dollar. The currency moves underpinned a move higher for bullion, breaking toward USD $1,360, however unable to capture the figure as a lack of follow through interest failed to break through layered offers. The yellow metal will set sights on a consolidated move through USD $1,360 over the near term, with targets extending toward the January USD $1,366 high and the 2016 high of USD $1,375.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

 

DAILY REPORT : Monday 12 Feb 2018

MACRO: With a lack of economic data for direction, equity markets in the U.S. ended a volatile week with a positive session as each of the major benchmarks ended higher. Following early session weakness the DJIA recovered in the final hours of trade to book a +1.38% gain at 24,190.90 points, however on a weekly basis the bourse put in its worst performance since January 2016 to hand back -5.2%. The S&P 500 posted a +1.49% gain to 2619.55 points as technology (+2.53%) led 10 of eleven sectors higher, however much the same as the DJIA, the bourse closed the week -5.2% lower. The Nasdaq Composite tacked on +1.44% on Friday, however over the week the bourse ended -5.1% down to book the worst week since February 2016. From a flow perspective, last week saw the largest weekly outflow on record to the tune of nearly USD $33 billion, while trading volumes over the week notched the highest level since August 2011 according to Wall Street Journal Digital Data. Treasury yields eased from recent highs as the stock market regained its footing to head higher. The two-year note slid around 7bps to around 2.06%, marking the largest single session decline since June 2016, while the 10-year pulled back around 2.2bps to around 2.83% after Monday’s four-year high of 2.88%.

PRECIOUS: Bullion ripped higher during Asian trade on Monday, turning sharply bid on the Chinese open as the greenback came under pressure. After muted early session interest, the metal tested resistance toward USD $1,320 on the Shanghai open, before further dollar declines saw stops around the figure trigger and propel the market to a USD $1,326.90 high. We saw only modest demand out of China during the session as they head into New Year celebrations later this week, rather the move hinged on dollar weakness driving stop loss runs through USD $1,320 and to a lesser extend a brief spike above USD $1,325. Bullion will be targeting a sustained move through USD $1,325 to test toward last weeks resistance around USD $1,330 - $1,335. Underlying support continues to be evident toward USD $1,310 - $1,315. Recent positioning data indicates a further short build up in silver, which may see the metal susceptible to squeeze higher should the greenback remain under pressure. The grey metal will be targeting an initial move above USD $16.50 for an extension toward USD $16.75 - $16.80 and above this USD $17.00. Palladium performed strongly today to head back toward USD $1,000 and regain a decent premium against platinum, with recent data suggesting a reduction in long positioning in what should be viewed as a healthy lightening.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 06 Feb 2018

MACRO: IHS Markit reported an upturn in U.S. service sector activity during January (final read), however the print was marginally down on December’s reported increase. The U.S. services PMI registered 53.3 during January (exp: 53.3), unchanged from an earlier estimate, however softer than December’s 53.7. Job creation remained solid, while new orders posted the fastest rise since September. The Institute for Supply Management reported continued growth within the U.S. non-manufacturing sector during January, seeing the ISM non-manufacturing index jump to 59.9 (exp: 56.7) from December’s 56.0. U.S. stocks were once again under pressure on Monday, with the DJIA recording its worst single-session performance in history on the way to a -1,175.21 point rout. Broad based weakness saw the major bourse’s lower as the Cboe Volatility index surged an astonishing 115% to 37.32, the highest level seen since August 2015. The DJIA plummeted a staggering -4.6% to 24,345.75 points, a result ‘flattered’ somewhat by a late session bounce after trading as much as -5% down in the final hours of trade. The S&P 500 saw all eleven sectors lower led by financials to slump -4.1% and close at 2,648.94 points, while the Nasdaq Composite posted a -3.78% fall. Following Tuesday’s move both the DJIA and the S&P 500 have slipped into negative territory for the year. Treasury yields continued to strengthen during early session trade as the 10-year yield touched a high of 2.883%, however a late flight to safety saw it decrease to around 2.70%. The Greenback saw further strength on Monday, adding around +0.4% (DXY) against majors, with notable gains against the euro as the pair declined around -0.6%. The dollar did however struggle against the safe-haven yen, collapsing close to -1%.

PRECIOUS: A big session for bullion on Monday in New York, buoyed by the collapse in equity markets and softer treasury yields, the metal ripped higher late in trade to break back above USD $1,340. The flight to safety was well and truly on during U.S. hours, with the decline to equity markets, the traditional haven assets such as U.S. treasuries (prices), the Japanese yen and of course the precious complex were well bid. Asian hours saw the session low with a brief but well supported test underneath USD $1,330, while European interest piggybacked a softer dollar to instigate a fairly orderly ascent and print a USD $1,338 high into the New York open. Early dollar interest capped further bullion gains in early U.S. trade, however an accelerated equity market sell off into the close as the VIX index hit a near 30-month high kicked off a further round of buying, propelling gold through USD $1,340 to book a +0.6% gain. Gold vols have ticked higher from what we saw yesterday, with 1m now sitting toward 10.45, 3m at 11.0 and 12 month a touch over 12.

Asian trade on Tuesday saw a relatively muted open as mild profit taking restricted further gains, however bullion soon returned to the overnight volatility as Asian equities followed the overnight U.S. lead sharply lower and U.S. equity futures markets plummeted. In lieu of dollar moves, the global equity market weakness underpinned interest in the precious, sending gold to a USD $1,346.10 session high, while afternoon flows although softer, continued to see an underlying bid tone keep the metal buoyant above USD $1,340. Gold positioning, although recently lightened does still lend itself to further position squaring, notably with regards to the recent build in longs should we see a reversal to the recent stock market weakness (longs at around 65% of all-time high). That being said, we may see further moves out of equities should the recent weakness persist, lending itself to a reallocation of funds into safehaven assets and further precious gains. Expect USD $1,340 to initially provide support for the metal, while stronger support around USD $1,330 - $1,335 will act as a pivot point over the near term. Bulls will be focusing on a sustained break above US $1,350 for a test toward the late Jan high around USD $1,365.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.