DAILY REPORT : Monday 27 Nov 2017

MACRO: Data from IHS Markit released on Friday showed business activity in the U.S. grew at a slower than expected pace during November. The flash composite PMI printed 54.6 to mark the slowest expansion of private sector output since July and notably below October’s 55.2. The seasonally adjusted services PMI came in at a flash reading of 54.7 (exp: 55.3) from 55.3 previously, also marking the slowest rate of expansion in output since July, however remained buoyant following increases to incoming new work and the fastest rate of job creation for three months. The seasonally adjusted flash manufacturing PMI printed 53.8 (exp: 55.0) from the 54.6 nine-month high registered in October. U.S. equity markets ran higher to fresh record closing levels on Friday, returning from Thanksgiving Day to book the first weekly gain in three weeks. The DJIA ended the session +0.14% higher at an all-time record of 23,557.99 points, while technology (+0.54%) led seven of eleven sectors of the S&P 500 (+0.21%) higher to see the bourse to a fresh record close at 2,602.42 points. Meanwhile, a strong performance from Amazon (+2.58%) helped the Nasdaq Composite to a +0.32% gain, closing at a fresh all-time record of 6,889.16 points. Over the week both the DJIA and the S&P 500 added +0.9%, while the Nasdaq outperformed to end +1.6% higher. Oil futures turned higher on Friday as investor’s shifted focus toward OPEC’s November 30 meeting, seeing WTI to its highest finish in close to 30 months and receiving a further boost following supply disruptions in Oklahoma. WTI ended the session +1.6% higher at a touch under USD $59 per barrel, while Brent crude tacked on +0.5% to USD $63.86 per barrel. The greenback traded heavily against majors on Friday to see the DXY end down -0.5% at a two-month low of 92.781, predominately weighed down by a firmer euro following a break above 1.19 for the common currency. Markets across Europe finished the week off in mixed fashion, with the Stoxx Europe 600 weighed down -0.13% by a firmer euro, while positive political developments out of Germany saw the Dax push to a +0.39% gain. In the U.K. the FTSE 100 posted a -0.10% decline as retail stocks traded heavily and the pound pushed higher.

PRECIOUS: Friday's shortened session provided little price action as far as bullion is concerned, with modest late European weakness seeing the yellow metal to a USD $1,285.45 session low even amid a declining greenback. The session saw lightened volumes on account of the Thanksgiving holiday and gold was able to recover and end just underneath USD $1,290. Regional demand in Asia remained muted on Monday, as the Shanghai on-shore premium eased toward USD $6 and Indian interest was close to non-existent with the metal trading in and out of a small discount recently. Early session dollar driven weakness leading into the Chinese open saw gold touch a session low of USD $1,286.50, however the metal was able to recover throughout the afternoon as the greenback reversed gains. Over the short-term bullion will look to hold support around USD $1,283.50 at which level both the 50 DMA and 100 DMA currently sit, with all eyes on developments regarding the proposed U.S. tax reforms and the U.S. GDP print on Wednesday. Top-side interest develops broadly between the recent high watermark of USD $1,295 - $1,296 and the psychological USD $1,300 figure. With regards to the remainder of the precious complex, silver continues to see underlying interest around USD $17 restricted declines, while palladium was unable to reclaim the USD $1,000 handle during Asian trade today following Friday's late session weakness. Data today includes U.S. new home sales and the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 21 Nov 2017

MACRO: The U.S. leading index outpaced expectations during October to increase +1.2% (exp: +0.8%) to follow an upwardly revised +0.1% gain (prev: -0.2%) during September. Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at the Conference Board commented with the release; “The growth of the LEI, coupled with widespread strengths among its components, suggests that solid growth in the U.S. economy will continue through the holiday season and into the New Year.” Equity markets in the U.S. ended higher on Monday amid subdued trading volumes on account of the shortened Thanksgiving Day holiday this week. The DJIA eased late in trade however was able to book a +0.31% gain and end at 23,430.33 points, while positive trade to telecoms and financials saw the S&P 500 close +0.13% higher at 2,582.14 points. Political news out of Europe on Monday saw negotiations between Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Party and both the Free Democratic Party and the Greens break down. Four weeks of talks between the three parties has failed to produce a governable union and now raises concerns over Merkel’s political future two months after the general election. Equity markets across Europe largely ignored the political dramas out of Germany on Monday, recovering from early session jitters to end trade in positive territory. A weaker regional currency helped support markets higher as the Stoxx Europe 600 booked a +0.67% gain, while the German Dax added +0.5% after opening close to -0.5% lower. In the U.K. the FTSE 100 (+0.12%) edged into positive territory on Monday, however saw gains tempered somewhat as the pound extended late Asian gains throughout European hours.

PRECIOUS: A disappointing session for bullion on Monday, reversing Friday's gains in their entirety to end -1.2% down from opening levels in Asia. Dollar headwinds in conjunction with bid global equities outweighed any political uncertainty in the U.S. and Germany that may have buoyed the metal, seeing gold well offered from the New York open as recent long positioning likely exited as bullion moved away from the psychological USD $1,300 level. Support around the 50 DMA and 100 DMA at USD $1,286 and USD $1,280.50 respectively provided periods of modest respite, however ultimately the yellow metal broke to a USD $1,274.50 low and saw little interest into the close. Asian trade today saw gold modestly firmer to test toward the 100 DMA in afternoon pricing, seeing mild interest out of China as the on-shore premium recovered from Monday's weakness. With a lack of dollar movement to drive direction, technical flows kept price action buoyant, while political instability in Europe and the ongoing tax reform debate in the U.S. continues to support interest in bullion. Expect seasonal demand in conjunction with strong technical interest toward the 200 DMA at USD $1,265 to keep price action buoyant over the near-term, however sizeable open interest in December gold around USD $1,300 coupled with Thanksgiving Holidays this week is likely to see any moves toward USD $1,295 - $1,300 well offered. Silver slipped below the USD $17 pivot point on Monday, however was able to hold within sight of the figure during Asian trade today, while platinum posted modest gains today following the brutal -2.7% fall on Monday and will look toward strong support around USD $912. Data releases of note today include the Chicago Fed National activity index and U.S. existing home sales.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Wed 15 Nov 2017

MARKETS/MACRO: Markets had a risk-off feel overnight with equities, yields, USD and commodities all heading lower and volatility continuing to march higher. U.S. stock indices came off intraday lows late-morning with Wall Street trading skittishly in the face of uncertainty around efforts to reform tax policy and a downturn in crude futures. The Dow ended up relinquishing -30.23 points, or -0.13%, to 23,409.47, the S&P500 sold off -5.97 points, or -0.23%, to 2,578.87 and the NASDAQ slumped -19.72 points, or -0.29%, to 6,737.872 on the day. The best performing sector was utilities (+0.93%) and the worst were Teleco's (-1.25%). European stocks closed lower for a sixth session, stung as the euro leapt to a 3 week high on the back of stronger than expected economic growth figures. The Euro First 300 Index dipped -10.49 points, or -0.69% to 1,510.08 and the Euro Stoxx 600 Index fell -2.27 points, or -0.59% to 383.86. Regionally the FTSE100 was flat, DAX softened -0.31% and CAC40 -0.49%. Crude oil prices fell sharply after the IEA raised doubts about the outlook for 2018, the WTI selling off -$0.99, or -1.74%, to $55.77 a barrel. In its latest report, the IEA reduced its estimate for demand for next year by 200k b/d to 98.9 million b/d. It blamed the recent price gains and a milder than normal winter in the northern hemisphere for this demand weakness. This came amid continued calls for an extension of the current production cuts. United Arab Emirates was the latest producer to suggest that the agreement should be extended to help re-balance the market. Oman went a step further, suggesting it should be extended until the end of 2018. Compliance among producers has been relatively good in recent months. FX markets were busy driven by EUR strength which we haven’t seen in a few weeks, EURUSD finishing +1.1% on the day just below 1.1800. The EUR move was initially triggered by the strong German GDP and was followed by strong real money demand; though Goldman Sachs believed "the extent of the move seemed mostly a positioning squeeze and gamma driven given a lack of major fundamental catalysts or change in rate differentials". The oil move also caused pain in the RUB, finishing the day as the underperformer in EM, -1.45% vs USD. U.S treasuries rallied by the back-end as the yield curve flattened for a 2nd straight day, 2y yields up +0.64 bps to 1.687% and 10y down -2.67 bps to 2.379%.

For the first time in a while, economic growth across Europe’s major economies is showing some more backbone. Overnight Germany recorded very strong Q3 growth of +0.8% QoQ (+0.6% expected, +0.6% prior) and +2.8% YoY (+2.3% expected, +2.1% prior). Notably, exports and investment were strong according to DeStatis. So far this year, Germany has been growing at a 3% annualised pace. Others are now joining the party it seems, with euro area Q3 GDP rising +0.6% QoQ and +2.5% YoY as expected. In the other big three economies, growth in France was +2.2% YoY, Italy +1.8% YoY and Spain +3.1% YoY. In the U.S the October NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 103.8 (104.0 expected), up from 103.0 in September. The historically strong performance extends the streak of positive months dating back to last November, when it shot up immediately following the election. Outlook for expansion and sales expectations each jumped six points, while job openings increased by five points. “Owners became much more positive about the economic environment last month, which suggests a longer-run view”, noted Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB chief economist. “In the nearer term, they are more optimistic about real sales growth and improved business conditions through the end of the year”. Still in the U.S, October PPI was stronger than expected at +0.4% MoM and 2.8% YoY (+2.4% expected, +2.6% prior). The core pace also rose +0.4% MoM, with the annual core rate rising to 2.4% YoY (2.2% expected and prior). The data hints at some building pipeline inflation pressures and perhaps supports the idea that the weakness in inflation earlier this year is likely to have been transitory. The data is also consistent with the Fed's view of gradual inflation normalisation.

PRECIOUS: Gold reversed overnight, shrugging off the initial move towards $1270 on the back of a weaker USD. We opened in Asia yesterday around $1278 and the metal began to slowly tick lower throughout the morning on light flows. The selling was again predominantly Comex based with Asian physical demand picking up some of the slack and absorbing the offers. USDCNY remained fairly sticky which helped the SGE trade to a $9-10 premium comparative to the loco London price. Interest on the Shanghai based exchange however remained modest and we continued to tick slowly lower into the afternoon. As London traders began to man their desks, USDJPY spiked toward 113.85 and a flurry of Comex selling ensued taking us down towards $1270.50. As has been the case the past few weeks, there were physical buy orders down around the $1270 which cushioned the sell-off. The yellow metal consolidated into the London session around $1271-74 although remained top heavy. When NY opened, the rising EURUSD prompted some buying, particularly into the PM gold auction. In thin conditions the yellow metal thrust higher, catching quick money shorts by surprise who quickly exited positions. Gold leapt through $1280 up to a peak of $1282.50 and after some jittery trade above $1280 continued higher, EURUSD not giving back back an inch either. Light producer selling was a feature on the move higher throughout the afternoon. ETF positioning continues to recover with 635k oz being added over the past week and a similar situation was seen in Comex gold with specs raising their bullish bets by +4.2% for the week.

Another fairly slow day in Asia, with most of the action and turnover prevalent in FX markets. Gold commenced trading at $1280.50 and carried over some of the momentum from NYK with early Asian traders looking for offers. Demand picked up further as we approached the SGE open, with the EURUSD remaining buoyant around the 1.1800 level in support. China were initial buyers with the premium a touch lower than they were yesterday, starting around $8-9 over the spot price. Gold shot to the days high shortly after the Chinese open although ran into some headwinds not long after from a collapsing AUDUSD. The currency saw some huge volumes go through as it broke down through 0.7610 (a level which has held for nearly a month now), tripping stops sharply down to a 0.7576 low. XAUAUD rocketed to a 5 month high as result ($1692.75) and Australian producer names were quick to sell into the strength further weighing on the yellow metal. Gold slowly slumped back towards the opening levels and continues to trade around there as I write ($1280.50-1282.00). Silver has managed to hold onto its $17 handle today amidst light flows and the PGM's have barely moved. In other markets equities in Asia are weaker, the Shanghai Composite is off -0.7%, Nikkei -1.4%, Hang Seng -0.75% and ASX200 -0.5%, while WTI crude is flat at $55.03 (last). Ahead today on the data calendar look out for French CPI, U.K employment figures and U.S CPI, retail sales and Empire Manufacturing.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Friday 24 Nov 2017

MACRO: US markets were closed for the Thanksgiving Holiday. European shares were narrowly mixed, the EuroSTOXX advanced 0.06 points, or 0.02%, to 387.12, the German DAX lost 6.49 points, or 0.05%, to 13,008.55, and the London FTSE 100 slipped 1.78 points, or 0.02%, to 7,417.24. In currency markets, the US dollar index eased 0.14% to 93.10, the EUR traded up to 1.1853, while USD/JPY was as low as 111.06. In commodities, oil prices were higher as Brent firmed 0.36% to $63.55 and WTI rose 0.93% to $58.56. Base metals were mostly higher, with nickel (+0.76%) the best performer. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei sits at +0.12%, the Shanghai composite is at +0.10%, the Hang Seng at +0.52%, and the ASX S&P 200 finished at -0.06%. Tonight we have Markit manufacturing PMI (flash) and Markit services PMI (flash) out of the US; and IFO current conditions, IFO expectations, and IFO business climate out of Germany.

PRECIOUS: A very quiet night for the precious with the US out for the holidays. Gold opened at $1291 in Asia and drifted lower through the session, the SGE premium at $5-6 prompted light selling by the Chinese banks. The market printed the low of $1287 during the London AM session. The yellow metal popped up to the days high of $1292 before settling to $1290 at the close. Silver tested the $17 level during Asian hours before finishing at $17.07. Palladium was the stand out, climbing to a high of $1012 after testing the psychological $1000 level earlier in the day. The Philadelphia gold and silver index added 1.35%. Gold ETF holdings remained unchanged. In todays trading, flows have been subdued as expected following the US holiday. Gold opened at $1291 and has traded a $3 range with the SGE premium at $6 over loco London. The yellow metal is at $1291.20 as I write. Silver opened at $17.05 and has firmed through the day, the grey metal sits at $17.12 as I write. Palladium is flat however platinum has tacked on a few dollars to print a high of $940.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Monday 20 Nov 2017

MACRO: U.S. housing starts rebounded in October, jumping +13.7% MoM (exp: +5.6%) from an upwardly revised -3.2% (prev: -4.7%) during September. The increase saw starts to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.29 million, marking the highest level since October 2016. Housing starts in the South led the headline print higher, soaring +17.2% to 621,000 units, with single-family construction jumping +16.6% to the highest level since 2007. The headline single-family starts increased +5.3% to 877,000 units to mark the highest level in eight months, while the volatile multi-family segment ripped a staggering +36.8% higher to 413,000 units. Building permits increased +5.9% during October to 1.297 million (exp: 1.250 million), marking the highest level since January. Single-family home permits pushed +1.9% higher and multi-family jumped +13.9%. U.S. equity markets traded heavily on Friday as concerns over the Republican’s tax reform package weighed upon the major bourse’s. The DJIA ended the session -0.43% lower at 23,358.24 points, while declines led by technology (-0.67%) and real-estate (-0.56%) saw the S&P 500 -0.26% lower at 2,578.85 points. Oil futures pushed higher on Friday, with Saudi Arabia reassuring market participants that OPEC were committed to extending supply cuts. WTI jumped +2.6% to USD $56.55 per barrel, while Brent crude popped +2.2% to close the session at USD $62.72. Friday’s positive price action wasn’t enough however to push the contracts into positive territory for the week, seeing WTI -0.3% lower at Brent down -1.3% as concerns over growing U.S. stockpiles lingered. European stocks ended lower on Friday as markets battled against a number of poor earnings results and headwinds generated by a stronger euro. The Stoxx Europe 600 pulled back -0.29% to 383.80 to book a -1.3% decline on the week, while the German Dax handed back -0.41%. A stronger pound kept the U.K. FTSE 100 (-0.08%) in the red on Friday after the bourse had recovered from early session weakness. On a weekly basis the bourse ended -0.7% down to follow a -1.7% fall the week prior.

PRECIOUS: Bullion traded with a strong bid tone on Friday in New York, with interest driven by a softer greenback as participants focused on developments to the Republican’s tax reform package, in addition to updates on special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation. Gold struggled to find support for a break above the 50 DMA (USD $1,287) throughout Asian and European hours, however continued to benefit from regional physical demand and technical interest around the 100 DMA (USD $1,280). It was in New York that the market awakened, garnering support from a leg lower to USD/JPY as the pair briefly tested underneath 112.00. Layered offers, notably producer interest were easily taken out on the way to a session high of USD $1,296.75, while late session flows saw the metal pull back marginally from the high to end with a gain of +1.2%. Asian demand on Monday was largely restricted to early session dollar weakness following headlines that Angela Merkel’s attempt to form a coalition Government with the FDP had thus far failed. The initial knee-jerk reaction to the headline saw the euro lower and a move into the yen and precious (EUR/YEN lower), however flows soon tempered and bullion spent the remainder of the session easing back from opening levels in a generally orderly fashion. Sizeable open interest in December gold around USD $1,300 coupled with Thanks Giving Holidays this week is likely to see the market capped around the figure, while initial supportive price action sits around the 50 DMA at USD $1,287. Follow Friday's consolidation above USD $17 and +1.3% gain, silver ran out of steam during Asian hours on Monday, drifting back toward the recent supportive level around USD $17.15. Data today includes German PPI and the U.S. leading index.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 14 Nov 2017

MACRO: With a lack of economic data for direction, U.S. equities eked out modest gains on Monday, withstanding weakness from General Electric after the conglomerate suffered its worst day in over eight years. The DJIA saw strength to McDonald’s Corp (+1.07%) and Home Depot Inc. (+0.73%) balance General Electric’s (-7.2%) fall and support the bourse +0.07% higher to 23,439.70 points, while the S&P 500 saw strength across utilities (+1.16%) underpin a +0.10% gain to 2,584.84 points. Oil prices ended Monday marginally lower following whippy late session pricing as both OPEC and the EIA reported supply/demand data. October crude production from OPEC members reportedly eased -0.5% MoM to 32.59 million barrels per day, while the EIA conversely reported that U.S. shale-oil production is expected to rise by 80,000 barrels per day to 6.174 million barrels per day in December. After touching briefly above USD $57 per barrel, WTI pulled back sharply late in trade (USD $56.30 low) before recovering to end just -0.16% lower at USD $56.72 per barrel, while Brent crude declined -0.8% to finish around USD $63.13 per barrel. The greenback was unable to sustain early session demand, however held onto a modest +0.1% gain for the session, while treasury yields traded mixed to see the curve flatten, taking the two-year to a fresh nine-year high and the ten-year unmoved. Fresh Brexit jitters had European investors heading for the exits on Monday, seeing the Stoxx Europe 600 -0.66% lower to mark the fifth consecutive session decline. Both the German Dax (-0.40%) and the French CAC (-0.73%) traded heavily, while the U.K. FTSE 100 declined -0.24% following news over the weekend that up to 40 members of parliament had agreed to sign a letter of no confidence in Prime Minister Theresa May.

PRECIOUS: An uninspiring session on Monday saw bullion hold a narrow range, with resting offers sitting between the 100 DMA (USD $1,278.40) and USD $1,280 restricting any sustained recovery following Friday’s collapse. A brief dip below USD $1,275 was quickly reversed in early Asian trade, with the remainder of the session seeing a mild bid bias that generally followed the dollar weakness in Europe and the U.S. Asian trade today had bullion under early session pressure, pulling back from the 100 DMA in modest flows. Demand out of China once again held an on-shore premium just underneath USD $10, however interest failed to restrict further declines as the yellow metal slipped toward USD $1,275 into the Shanghai lunchbreak. Key support levels for the yellow metal sit around USD $1,260 - $1,265 (200 DMA USD $1,264.00), while topside levels to watch initially come in around the 100 DMA pivot point at USD $1,278.40 and above this USD $1,282 - USD $1,285.Silver regained the USD $17 handle after recovering from early weakness in New York on Monday, impressively extending to a USD $17.07 session high and holding the figure into the close for a +1% gain. The grey metal however drifted lower with gold during Asian trade on Tuesday, although saw interest toward USD $17 to restrict a retracement of Monday’s gains. Palladium disappointed on Monday to lose touch with USD $1,000 following a strong Asian session, however was able to test back toward the figure on Tuesday following strong interest on the Japanese open. Middle Eastern tensions, U.S. tax reform and U.S. - North Korean relations remain present as upside shocks to the precious complex, however in lieu of major developments it is difficult to see gold finding the support necessary for a move back toward USD $1,300 over the near-term.Data releases today include German GDP, CPI and ZEW survey results, U.K. CPI / PPI / RPI, Eurozone industrial production and GDP, U.S. small business optimism and PPI.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 23 Nov 2017

MACRO: Minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting released late on Wednesday showed most policymakers believed the tightness in the labour market would eventually fuel higher inflation over the medium-term. Concerns were however raised over the inflation outlook, with a greater emphasis now being placed upon upcoming data releases. Initial jobless claims in the U.S. declined 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 239,000 (exp: 240,000) during the week ended November 18. The print marked the 142nd straight week that claims below the key 300,000 level, the longest such stretch since 1970. The four-week moving average inched 1,250 higher to 239,750, while continuing claims for the week ended November 11 increased 36,000 to 1.904 million (exp: 1.88 million). Durable goods orders in the U.S. sunk -1.2% MoM during October (exp: +0.3%) to follow an upwardly revised +2.2% increase during September (prev: +2.0%). The closely watched new orders for non-defence capital goods ex-air pulled back -0.5% (exp: +0.5%) to follow a +2.1% gain previously, marking the largest decline in over 12-months. The University of Michigan’s measure of consumer sentiment edged higher in November, printing 98.5 (exp: 98.0) from a previous estimate of 97.8, however down from October’s 100.7. Both the measure of current conditions and expectations were down from October’s levels. U.S. equity markets were generally lower on Wednesday in quiet pre-Thanksgiving trade, weighed down by a soft durable goods print and uncertainty surrounding the pace of interest rate increases going forward. The DJIA ended the session -0.27% lower at 23,526.18 points, declines to financials (-0.40%) saw the S&P 500 close -0.08% down, while the Nasdaq bucked the trend to inch +0.07% higher. The greenback traded under pressure on Wednesday following weak data and mixed messages from the FOMC. The DXY ended trade -0.8% lower, notably falling against the yen to a low of 111.14 after opening toward 112.50 in Asia.

PRECIOUS: Bullion posted gains on Wednesday, buoyed by a weaker dollar and generally tracking inverse to USD/JPY throughout the session. A mild offered bias during Asian trade saw interest toward USD $1,280 underpin the metal, while the weakness was short-lived as dollar declines accelerated into European hours. Late Asian session regional demand out of China (USD/Asia softer during the lunch break) provided a modest bid as the on-shore premium extended toward USD $10, and in conjunction with the greenback weakness saw the yellow metal briefly test through USD $1,285.00 (50 DMA). A softer than expected durable goods print out of the U.S. saw gold through the 50 DMA in early New York trade, with the move through the figure enticing spec interest and providing supportive price action into the Fed minutes release. Mixed signals out of the Fed somewhat dampened interest rate expectations beyond December’s meeting, in-turn seeing a further extension of the earlier dollar weakness to see bullion to a USD $1,294 session high, before tempering marginally into the close. Asian interest on Thursday was skewed to the down-side following the positive price action in the U.S., with bullion tempering the overnight gains as the greenback provided little direction for the precious complex. Modest weakness around the Chinese open saw the yellow metal test a break of USD $1,290, however it wasn’t until Europe filtered in that figure was significantly broken to print a USD $1,288.50 session low. A shortened session today due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. should see the precious complex hold a narrow range over the next few days and it is difficult to see any top-side moves legitimately through the recent high print for a test toward USD $1,300. Conversely expect to see resting bids broadly around the 100 DMA at USD $1,282 and extending as far as USD $1,275 restrict moves to the down-side.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Friday 17 Nov 2017

MACRO: The US House of Representatives passed the Republican backed legislation to overhaul the tax code, the bill passed with 227 votes to 205. The US Senate is working on it's on version, which should be completed by the end of the week. US equities surged higher on the tax news and some strong quarterly results, including a bumper result from Wal-mart (+10%). The Dow rose 187.08 points, or 0.80%, to 23,458.36; the S&P 500 gained 21.02 points, or 0.82% to 2,585.64, while the Nasdaq climbed 87.08 points, or 1.30%, to a record 6,793.291. There were big wins for telecoms (+1.75%), consumer staples (+1.56%), and IT (+1.33%) while energy (-0.58%) led the laggards. European shares were higher, the EuroSTOXX advanced 2.97 points, or 0.78%, to 384.93, the German DAX added 70.85 points, or 0.55%, to 13,047.22, and the London FTSE 100 put on 14.33 points, or 0.19%, to 7,386.94. In currency majors, the US dollar index firmed 0.13% to 93.934, the EUR traded down to 1.1762 while USD/JPY was up at 113.27. US treasury yields were higher, the 2 year yield rose 2.48 bps to 1.7082% and the 10 year yield gained 318 bps to 2.3540%. In the commodities, oil markets were lower as Brent lost 0.78% to $61.39 and WTI eased 0.38% to $55.12. Base metals were broadly lower, with nickel (-2.92%) taking the biggest hit. In US economic news, import prices rose 0.2% in October following a 0.7% gain in September. The larger increases in the previous two months were largely a result of increased energy prices following the major hurricanes during that period, the more modest rise in October was expected. Industrial production climbed 0.9% in October from an upwardly revised 0.4% in September. while capacity utilisation rose to 77% in October from 76.4% in September. The Philly Fed manufacturing index fell to a reading of 22.7 in November from 27.9 in October, it is the 16th straight month that the index has been positive. The National Association of Home Builders monthly confidence gauge rose to 70 in November from 68 in October, it's highest level since March. Initial jobless claims rose 10k to 249k in the week ending November 11 following a backlog of hurricane related applications, continuing jobless claims fell by 44k to 1.86M, the lowest level since 1973. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei sits at +0.43%, the Shanghai composite is at -0.54%, the Hang Seng at +0.61%, and the ASX S&P 200 at +0.27%. Tonight we have housing starts and building permits out of the US; and current account and construction output out of the Eurozone.

PRECIOUS: Quiet session for the precious as equities took centre stage. Gold opened at $1277 in Asia and traded a $3 range though the day, the SGE premium was at $7-8 which didn't prompt much action on either side. London were happy to sit on their hands through the AM. The yellow metal ticked up above $1280 on the NY open as USD/JPY started to soften, however resting orders at that level capped the market. Gold came off slightly during the afternoon but held well considering the relative strength in the stock market and the increasing yields, the metal finished the session at $1278. Silver found a bid in London and traded through the $17 level for a close at $17.05. PGMs were flat with platinum and palladium closing at $927 and $988 respectively. The Philadelphia gold and silver index lost 0.25%. The SPDR Gold Trust holdings were unchanged at 843.39 metric tonnes. In todays trading, Gold opened at $1278.40 in Asia and broke through the $1280 level to a high of $1283.50 as USD/JPY dropped through 113. The SGE premium remains at $7 over loco London. The yellow metal is at $1282.30 as I write. Silver has firmed slightly through the day, the grey metal is sitting at $17.09 as I write. Platinum and palladium are both grinding higher. Gold is currently sitting ahead of the 100 dma at $1279 a hold above here could see the metal testing the November high of $1288.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Monday 13 Nov 2017

MACRO: The University of Michigan's preliminary reading on consumer confidence for November declined to 97.8 (exp: 100.8), to follow a 100.7 read in October. Both current conditions and expectations weighed upon the headline figure, while short-term inflation expectations edged higher. Equity markets in the U.S. ended modestly lower on Friday, bringing to an end eight consecutive weekly gains as delays to tax reform weighed upon the major bourse's. The DJIA dipped -0.17% to end at 23,422.21 points, while the S&P 500 handed back -0.09% to 2,582.30 points as heavy trade to energy (-0.81%0 weighed upon the bourse. Bucking the trend was the Nasdaq Composite, inching into positive territory for a +0.01% gain after recovering from early session weakness. Over the week the DJIA slipped -0.5% and both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq declined -0.2%, the latter breaking a six session winning streak. Oil futures traded under pressure on Friday following a Baker Hughes report noting that active oil rigs in the U.S. increased by 9 to a total of 738. WTI closed the last session of the week down -0.8% to USD $56.74 per barrel, while Brent crude finished -0.6% lower at USD $63.52 per barrel. Both major benchmarks were able to book their fifth consecutive weekly gain following the heightened geopolitical concerns in the Middle East, seeing WTI +2.3% higher on the week and Brent crude +2% higher. The greenback eased modestly lower on Friday, retracing early New York declines to finish down just -0.05%, while treasury yields picked up on the back of tax reform jitters to see the 10-year end just shy of 2.4% and the two-year at 1.65%. Up to forty U.K. Conservative Party members have reportedly agreed to sign a letter of no confidence in Prime Minister Theresa May, just eight short of the required number to trigger a leadership contest. The chaotic situation is impacting upon the U.K.'s position leading into further Brexit negotiations and has seen the pound under pressure during Asian trade today. In the U.K. on Friday, it was a stronger sterling that kept equities in London in the red, seeing the FTSE 100 to a -0.68% decline as healthcare and telecoms led declines. European markets also suffered from a stronger regional currency, marking the worst weekly result in three months following a number of earnings misses. The Stoxx Europe 600 posted a -0.35% decline to close the week -1.8% lower, while the German Dax shed -0.42% for a -2.6% weekly fall.

PRECIOUS: What had been a relatively quiet session for bullion on Friday quickly changed course, as close to 4 million ounces of gold were liquidated over a ten minute period in New York. Stops trigged around the 100 DMA ($1,278) exacerbated the liquidation, seeing the metal give back USD $10 to a USD $1,273.10 session low, with muted interest into the close having gold end -0.8% down at USD $1,274.80. It was an interesting move for bullion considering the weaker greenback and softer global equities, bucking the recent bid trend that saw the yellow metal still hold onto a +0.4% gain on the week, even amid Friday's late weakness. Asian trade on Monday kicked off the week in a rather subdued fashion, with price action held within a tight range throughout the session as participants looked for direction following Friday's decline. Chinese interest provided a mild bid as the metal held an on-shore premium above USD $10 in early Shanghai trade, however we saw this drift off toward the lunch break and as such bullion eased back marginally toward USD $1,275. Middle Eastern tensions, U.S. tax reform and U.S. - North Korean relations remain present as upside shocks to the precious complex, however in lieu of major developments it is difficult to see gold finding the support necessary for a move back toward USD $1,300 over the near-term. As recent dollar weakness looks to abate and treasury yields recommence their upward trajectory from recent tests of support levels, we may see gold pressured toward support levels around USD $1,260 - $1,265 (200 DMA USD $1,263.80). Topside levels to watch initially come in around the 100 DMA pivot point at USD $1,278 and above this USD $1,282 - USD $1,285. Following Friday's collapse through USD $17, silver failed to retake the figure during Asian trade today and struggled for support amid modest volumes through Globex, while palladium initially opened south of USD $1,000 however was able to consolidate above the figure in afternoon pricing.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Wed 22 Nov 2017

MARKETS/MACRO: Global equities rose as positive sentiment through the Asian session carried through to Europe and the U.S, with U.S indices again climbing to fresh all time highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained +160.50 points, or +0.69%, to 23,590.83, the S&P500 rallied +16.89 points, or +0.65%, to 2,599.03 and the NASDAQ added +71.76 points, or +1.06%, to 6,862.477. The best performing sector was Tech ( +1.13%), while the worst performing sector was Telecom Services ( -0.37%). European markets closed higher, as investors appeared to set aside concerns about the possibility of a new election in Germany. The FTSE Euro First 300 Index advanced +6.98 points, or +0.46% to 1,525.56 and the Euro Stoxx 300 index tacked on +1.71 points, or +0.44% to 388.10. Regionally the FTSE 100 was up +0.3%, DAX +0.83% and CAC40 +0.48%. Crude oil prices inched higher amid rising expectations of lower inventories and further supply constraints, WTI up +$0.48 on the day, or +0.85% to $56.90 a barrel. A Bloomberg survey showed that investors are now expecting a strong draw-down in inventories in the U.S, somewhere in the order of ~2.2 million barrels. This follows a couple of weeks of surprise gains in stockpiles. Reports that Russian oil companies have already been discussing extended cuts helped ease concerns in the market. The USD was generally on the back foot against the G10, with NOK leading gains. CAD and MXN also rallied after the head of Mexico’s business chamber said NAFTA deals on telecom, energy and e-commerce are nearing completion, although that has not been officially confirmed. In treasuries the U.S 2y yields rose +2.1 bps to 1.772% and the 10y yield was down -0.7 bps to 2.359%.

On the data front U.S existing home sales rose +2.0% (+0.2% expected) to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.48 million units (5.37 million prior). The National Association of Realtors reported that those regions which bore the brunt of Hurricane's Harvey and Irma had rebounded during the period. The South, which accounts for almost half of the existing homes sales market, recorded a +1.9% increase in sales last month, with gains also seen in the Northeast, Midwest and West regions. Home sales remain constrained by an acute shortage of properties, which is exerting upward pressure on house prices, and sidelining some first-time buyers, who accounted for 32% of transactions last month. Still in the U.S the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index rose to +0.65 in October (+0.20 expected), from an upwardly revised +0.36 the prior month (+0.17 prior).

PRECIOUS: It was another range-bound session for gold yesterday, the metal ultimately closing slightly higher in line with a softer USD and some rising political headwinds in Germany. Gold opened in Asia and steadily rose into the Chinese open as expected given the previous sessions decline. Chinese banks were seen on the bid early in the session pushing spot gold from the $1277 open towards $1280. The SGE premium had recovered to around USD $7-8 equivalent over the loco London price, which kept demand trickling through for both am and pm sessions on the exchange. Spot gold pushed up above $1280 a few times over this period, yet it was apparent there was selling (mainly Comex based) above that level. Towards the backend of London, early NYK, the gold dipped to the intra-day low of $1277.50, although this quickly averted when the USDJPY retreated to 112.50 and the US 10y yield pushed below 2.33%. Gold shot to the days high of $1284 as some fast money shorts looked to cover. The sellers eventually won out as we have often seen on rallies over the past weeks, and the metal gravitated back toward $1280 at the close. Gold remains confined to $1265-95 for now, testing the topside of that range late last week however quickly reversing. This would have been a big blow to bulls who would have been looking for a sustained breach of $1300. Instead we remain in the range, with it looking increasingly likely that a big event is going to be required to shake us free (ie North Korea, Tax Reform, Fed hike etc).

Gold consolidated today in Asia, hovering either side of $1280. There was some light initial buying from banks and SE Asian trading houses and physicals. which kept it buoyant throughout the morning. This continued in to the Shanghai open, with some moderate buying seen on the SGE due to a weaker USDCNY and USDCNH. The onshore premium remained around $7-9 over the loco London price throughout the am session. Flows through GCZ7 were moderate on the day, currently sitting at around 25k lots. In other markets, equities have continued the momentum from NYK with the Nikkei currently up +0.5%, Shanghai Composite +0.5%, Hang Seng +0.9% and the ASX200 +0.4%. Currencies have been moving around, particularly the AUDUSD which shot higher this morning after some much better than expected construction data. The pair approached 0.7600 (0.7596 high) but just as sharply retreated, many traders taking advantage of the rise to boost shorts. The pair currently is trading around 0.7565. USDJPY has retreated slowly throughout the day and currently sits at 112.20, after starting the day at 112.50. Looking ahead, the market will be focused on the FOMC meeting minutes today amongst a host of other data - U.S. jobless claims, durable goods orders, consumer confidence, University of Michigan Sentiment survey. Traders will be looking into any further clues on Fed direction for the end of the year and into next year. Liquidity could be a little diminished today during the NY session, as some traders vacate their desks early ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow. So watch out for short, sharp moves especially given all the data.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 16 Nov 2017

MACRO: Consumer prices in the U.S. increased +0.1% MoM during October (exp: +0.1%) to follow a +0.5% increase the month prior. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, the so-called core CPI figure increased +0.2% MoM (exp: +0.2%) from +0.1% previously. On an annualised basis CPI eased to +2.0% YoY (exp: +2.0%) from +2.2% during September, while core CPI nudged +0.1% higher to +1.8% YoY to outpace the expected +1.7% forecasted and mark the strongest annual gain since April. U.S. retail sales increased +0.2% MoM during October (exp: 0.0%) to follow an upwardly revised +1.9% gain during September (prev: +1.6%). The headline figure saw weakness across service stations, with receipts falling -1.2% following a +6.4% print in September, while sales at gardening and building material stores also declined -1.2% to follow a +3.0% gain in September. Core retail sales, the figure that is more in-line with that used in the calculated of GDP, increased +0.3% MoM to follow a +0.5% increase in September. The Commerce Department reported U.S. business inventories remained unchanged during September (exp: 0.0%) from a +0.6% increase the month prior. Retail inventories declined -0.9%, while business sales increased +1.4%. After hitting a three-month high in October, the Empire manufacturing index remained robust during November, printing 19.4 (exp: 25.1) from 30.2 previously. Future business conditions and future new orders both improved, the latter printing a multiyear high of 53.7. Soft oil prices and further concerns over tax reforms sent the major U.S. equity bourse’s lower on Wednesday, seeing both the DJIA and the S&P 500 to their largest single-session percentage declines since September. The DJIA ended the session -0.59% lower at 23,271.28 points, while energy (-1.17%) led nine of eleven components of the S&P 500 lower as the bourse handed back -0.55%. Oil futures booked their lowest finish in around to two weeks following an EIA report noting an increase in domestic crude inventories. The EIA reported an increase in supplies of 1.9 million barrels for the week ended November 10, at odds with expectations of a 1 million barrel decline. The data saw WTI -0.7% lower at the close, while Brent crude declined -0.6% to just under USD $62 per barrel.

PRECIOUS: Gold reversed early session gains during New York trade on Wednesday to finish modestly lower, unable to find a bid amid failing global equity markets and a mixed greenback against majors. It was a generally positive session for bullion throughout Asian and European trade, well supported toward USD $1,280 during late Asian hours, before touching a USD $1,289.25 session high into the U.S. CPI print. A generally positive inflation print soon put the brakes on further gains (further support to a December interest rate increase), reversing the earlier bid tone as the metal turned sharply offered. Initial support toward USD $1,280 held momentarily, however downward pressure on Comex soon chewed through bids around the figure to see bullion knock out stops and settle around USD $1,277 into the close for a -0.2% decline. Asian trade on Thursday failed to entice participants into the market, seeing bullion hold generally range-bound as the dollar edged sideways and regional equities traded firmer. Late Asian dollar strength saw the greenback through 113.00 against the yen (early session 112.76 low) to weigh upon bullion into European hours, however the metal was well supported toward USD $1,275 to restrict further declines. Interest toward USD $1,279 (100 DMA) - $1,282 looms as a pivot point for gold over the near-term, with a consolidated break once again opening up a test into the USD $1,290’s and potentially USD $1,300. Down-side support has been evident around USD $1,275 during Asian hours today, while Tuesday’s USD $1,270 low should see resting bids, with strong support below this at the 200 DMA of USD $1,264.50. Silver spent today’s Asian session either side of USD $17, however has shown little respect for the figure in recent sessions, rather interest toward USD $16.90 would be a better gauge of supportive price action over the near-term. Of the white metal’s it was platinum that stood out on Wednesday in New York, initially reacting to developments out of Zimbabwe, however paring gains into the close. Data today includes U.K. retail sales, eurozone CPI, U.S. initial jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed business outlook, U.S. import prices and U.S. industrial production.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Friday 10 Nov 2017

MACRO: Initial jobless claims in the U.S. edged modestly higher during the week ended November 4, adding 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 239,000 (exp: 232,000) to follow a near 44 year low of 229,000 the week prior. The print saw the four-week moving average decline 1,250 to 231,250 to mark the lowest level since March 1973, while continuing claims increased 17,000 to 1.901 million (exp: 1.885 million) during the week ended October 28. U.S. wholesale inventories increased +0.3% MoM during September, in-line with earlier estimates, however down from August's +0.8% print. Wholesale stocks ex-autos, the component of wholesale inventories that is used in the calculation of GDP increased +0.42%. Sales at wholesalers rose +1.3% (exp: +0.9%) in September to follow a +1.9% gain during August, while wholesale auto sales edged +0.7% to pull back from a +4.4% increase the month prior. Equity markets in the U.S. pulled back from recent highs on Thursday, weighed down by concerns over delays to tax reform. The DJIA posted a -0.43% decline to 23,461.94 points, marking the largest single-session decline for the bourse since late October. Weakness across industrials (-1.28%) and materials (-0.87%) dragged the S&P 500 -0.38% lower to 2,584.62 points, while the Nasdaq Composite pulled back -0.58% to 6,750.053 points. Oil prices rebounded on Thursday, buoyed by reports that Saudi Arabia had urged its nationals to leave Lebanon, raising fears that there may be further military action in the region. WTI added +0.6% to USD $57.17 per barrel, ending just shy of Monday's two-year high of USD $57.35, while Brent crude gained +0.7% to end just underneath USD $64 per barrel. The greenback traded lower on Thursday following reports that the U.S. Senate Finance Committee proposed to delay a corporate tax cut to 20% out until 2019. The DXY saw mixed trade, however generally tracked lower throughout the session to end down -0.4%.

PRECIOUS: Thursday's dollar weakness supported bullion to a near three-week high in New York, tacking on +0.33% to end around USD $1,286.30 for the highest close since mid October. The yellow metal saw good support toward USD $1,280 in early Asian pricing and withstood modest downward pressure in New York to ultimately turn higher as equities traded under pressure. Friday's Asian session was a generally subdued affair, with the yellow metal initially bid on the back of a softer greenback, however unable to trouble the previous session high print in early trade. Weakness out of China took bullion toward USD $1,285 with little movement in the on-shore premium, however afternoon price action was generally supportive amid further dollar weakness to restrict any further declines. Bullion continues to see interest conducive to further price action toward USD $1,300, with strength underpinned by the recent news of delays to tax reform out of the U.S. weighing upon the greenback and U.S. equity markets. Expect USD $1,280 to offer initial support, while below this the 100 DMA (USD $1,277.50) should see broad support toward USD $1,275. Silver disappointed in New York on Thursday, reversing Asian and European gains to ease back below the USD $17 pivot point, as the safe-haven demand spurring gold pricing failed to transfer into the grey metal. The metal failed to garner support during Asian trade on Friday, however on a positive note, was able to reclaim the USD $17 handle and this will continue to be the barometer for pricing. Data releases today include industrial and manufacturing production prints out of France and the U.K., trade balance out of the U.K. and the U.S. University of Michigan consumer sentiment gauge.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.