DAILY REPORT : Friday 28 July 2017

MACRO: US equities were mixed on Thursday, with the Dow closing at a record high while the tech sector took a beating. Tech was higher initially as Facebook shares surged on some better than expected quarterly results. The downturn, however, was swift as investors seized the opportunity to take profits. The Dow added 60.61 points, or 0.28%, to 21,771.62, the S&P 500 slipped 2.41 points, or 0.10%, to 2,475.42, and the Nasdaq dropped 40.56 points, or 0.63%, to 6,382.19. The Nasdaq was as low as 1.6% down during the session but was able to pare at least some of the losses. There were wins for telco (+5.2%) and energy (+1.0%) while tech (-0.82%) and healthcare (-0.68%) led the laggards. European shares were lower, The EuroSTOXX lost 0.42 points, or 0.1%, to 382.32, the German DAX shed 93.07, or 0.75%, to 12,188.50, the London FTSE 100 declined 9.31, or 0.12%, to 7,378.0. In the currency markets, the US dollar rose 0.27% to 93.931, USD/JPY was as high as 111.66 through the day but was sold off sharply during NY hours, the EUR traded down to 1.1654. US treasury yields were higher as investors continue process the Fed's comments from Wednesday, the 2 year yield increased 0.79 bps to 1.3631%, the 10-year yield ticked up 2.32 bps to 2.3103%. In commodities news, the oil market rally continued as inventories decline, Brent firmed 1.26% to $51.61 while WTI added 0.82% to $49.15. Base metals were mixed, with nickel (+0.90) the best performer. In US economic data, durable goods orders jumped 6.5% in June on the back of large orders from the airline industry, excluding planes and autos orders rose only 0.2%. Core capital goods orders, considered a key measure of business investment, fell 0.1% in June, the first fall since December last year. Retail and wholesale inventories grew by a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in June. The Commerce Department reported that the advanced trade in goods fell by 3.7% in June to $63.9bln, the smallest deficit since December. The Chicago Fed's national activity index firmed to 0.13 in June from a downwardly revised -0.30 in May. Initial jobless claims rose 10k to a seasonally adjusted 244k in the week ending July 22. New claims have been below 300k for 125 straight weeks, the longest streak since the early 1970's. Continuing jobless claims increased to 1.96M. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei sits at -0.69%, the Shanghai composite is at -0.09%, the Hang Seng at -0.69%, and the ASX S&P 200 at +1.53%. Tonight we have GDP, employment cost index, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index out of the US; Business confidence, consumer confidence, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, and economic sentiment out of the Eurozone; plus inflation data from Germany.

PRECIOUS: Gold opened in Asia near the previous sessions high and traded up to 6 week high $1264. The SGE premium was at $7 over loco London and we saw the metal range-bound through the remainder of the day and London's morning session. The yellow metal reached a new high following NY open but was sold down to the session's low of $1255 as better than expected US economic data pushed bond yields higher and put pressure on the market. A short rally as the greenback was sold sharply against the yen was followed by a drift below $1260 before the close. Silver saw good support during London AM hours and was squeezed to a a fresh month-high $16.80. Profit taking had the grey metal dumping 20c in an hour before drifting a further 10c to close at the low of $16.53. Platinum closed relatively flat after some volatility during NY hours while palladium was once again the sessions best performer, closing up 0.8% despite a sell-off from the intra-day high of $880. The Philadelphia gold and silver index lost 2.41%. The SPDR gold trust holdings fell 0.45% to 791.88 metric tons. In today's trading, we have seen a thus far quiet session for the precious complex. Gold has remained within a tight $3 range around the $1260 level in fairly thin volumes, with the SGE premium unchanged around $7 over loco London. The yellow metal is 1258.80 as I write. Silver is edging lower, the grey metal sits at $16.52 as I write. Yesterday's best performer is faring the worst in Asia today, palladium is down almost 1% off the open and is at $869 presently. The positive economic outlook in the US is capping the precious at the moment, however Gold looks well supported ahead of the 100 dma at $1249 and a consolidation above $1260 could support a move higher.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Monday 24 July 2017

MACRO: A lack of economic releases on Friday saw investors turn focus instead to corporate earnings, with soft results from General Electric (-2.92%) weighing upon the broader market. The DJIA ended the session -0.15% lower at 21,580.07 points to see the bourse end the week -0.3% lower. The S&P 500 (-0.04%) saw weakness across energy (-0.88%) on the back of softer oil prices to end the session marginally lower, however was able to hold onto a +0.5% return for the week. The Nasdaq Composite broke ten consecutive gains on Friday after easing -0.04% to follow Thursday's record close, outperforming over the week to end +1.5% higher. Notably the CBOE VIX index printed the second lowest close on record during Friday's session, sliding -2.3% to 9.36. Oil futures slumped during Friday's session ahead of an upcoming meeting of OPEC producers, however did see marginal support following data from Baker Hughes reporting the number of oil rigs in the U.S. eased by 1 to 764. WTI ended the session around -2.5% lower to settle at USD $45.77 per barrel, booking a -2.1% decline for the week. Brent crude meanwhile ended the week below USD $50 per barrel, handing back -2.5% on Friday to settle at USD $48.06 per barrel for a -1.7% weekly decline. A stronger regional currency kept European equities underwater on Friday, while declining oil prices added further fuel to the fire. The Stoxx Europe 600 slumped -1% to 380.16, booking the largest single session fall in close to a month to see the bourse -1.9% lower on a weekly basis. The export heavy (euro sensitive) German Dax ended -1.7% lower, while the French CAC posted a -1.6% fall. Equities in the U.K. followed European markets lower on Friday, weighed down by a higher sterling and weaker energy prices. The FTSE 100 ended trade on Friday -0.5% lower, however still managed to end the week with a +1% gain to book the best weekly performance since late May.

PRECIOUS: The precious complex extended recent gains during Friday's session, breaking through a number of key technical resistance levels on the back of a weaker greenback and a likely short covering rally. Muted price action during Asian trade gave way to interest out of Europe, importantly breaking and consolidating above USD $1,245 leading into U.S. hours. Initial bids out of New York saw stops triggered through the 50 and 100 day moving averages to take bullion through USD $1,250, while the metal continued to grind higher throughout the session to touch a USD $1,256.40 high and book a +0.8% gain. On a weekly basis bullion added over +2% as the USD continued to run lower. Asia kicked off the week on the offer to take gold lower in early session flows, however a break below 111.00 to USD/JPY soon provided the impetus for a move through Friday's high print, seeing bullion briefly above USD $1,257 into Chinese trade. A softer on-shore premium in Shanghai (USD $7) saw gold once again under pressure as the far East opened, however the metal continued to see sustained support underneath USD $1,255 to restrict further declines. Following Friday's positive price action gold will look to consolidate above USD $1,250, with broad support sitting underneath at USD $1,248 - $1,250. Targets on the top-side for gold extend to USD $1,275 - $1,280, while moves beyond this will target the April and June high prints around USD $1,296 - $1,298. Silver finally saw a sustained move through resistance around USD $16.40 on Friday on the back of a weaker greenback, while weak short positioning around the figure likely contributed to the positive price action. The grey metal is encountering some resistance toward USD $16.50, once again testing the figure during Asian trade on Monday following a failed attempt on Friday. The current large short positioning is likely weighing upon the metal, however a sustained move through USD $16.50 to target USD $16.69 should drive short liquidation to support further gains. According to the latest COTR data, surprisingly silver short positioning has increased to a fresh all-time high, however price action toward the end of last week has no doubt seen this open interest reduced. Platinum consolidated Friday's gain during Asian trade today and will look to target USD $950, while palladium continues to slide following two failed attempts of USD $875 in recent weeks and will need to hold USD $830 to restrict a test of the USD $800 handle. Data releases today includes Markit Manufacturing / Services / Composite PMI prints from France, Germany, the Eurozone and the U.S.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 18 July 2017

MACRO: The New York Fed released its Empire State Manufacturing Index on Monday, showing activity in the region softened during July. The index fell to a seasonally adjusted 9.8 (exp: 15.0) to follow June's two year high of 19.8, with new orders, shipments, inventories, delivery times and number of employees all slowing. Equities in the U.S. ended generally unchanged on Monday in quiet trade, as investor's await a number of key quarterly releases. Declines to J.P. Morgan (-0.93%) and IBM (-0.80%) weighed upon the DJIA, seeing the bourse end the session -0.04% lower at 21,629.72 points. The S&P 500 (-0.01%) ended marginally lower at 2,459.14 points, with softness across healthcare (-0.30%) and energy (-0.14%) offsetting gains to utilities (+0.31%) and consumer discretionary (+0.26%). The Nasdaq meanwhile outperformed to end the session +0.03% higher at 6,314.431 points. Oil futures eased on Monday following five consecutive session gains, under pressure following an EIA report noting that it sees a 113,000 barrels per day increase in domestic oil production during August. WTI slipped over -1% to settle just above USD $46 per barrel, while Brent crude handed back -1% to around USD $48.50 per barrel. European markets ended trade on Monday mixed, with mining shares keeping the major bourse's buoyant following positive GDP data out of China. The Stoxx Europe 600 managed to tack on a modest +0.01%, while the German DAX pulled back -0.35% and the French CAC dipped -0.1%. Eurozone CPI data printed in-line with expectations during June, improving to flat MoM (exp: flat) from -0.1% previously, while on an annualised basis CPI held at +1.3% YoY. In the U.K. the FTSE 100 outperformed regionals to add +0.35%, supported by the stronger than expected Chinese data giving miners a boost, while a softer sterling also lifted investor appetite.


PRECIOUS: Gold was able to consolidate and build upon last weeks gains on Monday, retaking the 200 DMA during Asian hours before extending gains on the back of a softer greenback in New York. Asia kicked off the week with a mild bid bias, making light work of resistance around the 200 DMA (USD $1,229.50), however unable to make headway through Friday's New York high print. European trade saw a brief period of weakness test the 200 DMA support, however this soon gave way to further interest once New York opened, pushing the metal to a USD $1,235.90 high for a +0.4% gain. Further downwards pressure on the USD saw gold turn higher during Asian hours on Tuesday, piggybacking on a leg higher to the AUD following the RBA minutes and a reversal to USD/JPY testing 112.00 on news that two more Republican senators had announced their opposition to the Trump administration's healthcare legislation. The Chinese on-shore premium remained around USD $10 throughout the afternoon, broadly supportive to hold the yellow metal around USD $1,238 into European trade. Technically gold will look to hold above the 200 DMA and should see further interest emerge above the figure. Top-side targets extend broadly through USD $1,235 - $1,240 and USD $1,250 beyond this. After breaking above USD $16 in early Asian trade on Monday, silver was able to consolidate above the figure throughout European and U.S. hours, ending the session around +0.6% higher. Asian hours on Tuesday saw a test of Monday's high print leading into European trade, however the grey metal is running into resistance around USD $16.20 and will need to break through this level in the near-term for a momentum driven extension toward USD $16.50. ETF's continue to accumulate the metal, adding a further 1 million ounces on Monday, while interestingly we are seeing a disconnect as speculative positioning in the metal sees shorts at an all-time high. Platinum held a narrow range, however traded with a mild offered bias during Asian hours today, while palladium consolidated Monday's gains to hold above USD $860. Data releases tonight includes U.K. CPI / PPI / RPI, German ZEW survey results, U.S. Import Prices, the U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index and U.S. TIC Flows.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 27 July 2017

MARKETS/MACRO: U.S. stocks traded higher overnight on the back of strong company earnings (Coke / Boeing / AT&T / U.S. Steel) and following the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose +97.58 points, or +0.45%, to 21,711.01, the S&P500 inched up +0.70 of a point, or +0.03%, to 2,477.83 and the Nasdaq rallied +10.573 points, or +0.16%, to 6,422.747. European equity markets also kicked higher thanks to some robust earnings reports (Lonza / Peugeot / Commerzbank / Kion). The Euro First 300 Index jumped +7.12 points, or +0.48% to 1,504.02 and the Euro Stoxx 600 advanced +1.97 points, or +0.52% to 382.74. Regionally the FTSE100 tacked on +0.24%, DAX +0.33% and CAC40 +0.56%. Crude surged higher on the back of another strong draw down in inventories (WTI +$0.83, or +1.73% to US$48.72). EIA data showed the U.S. stockpiles of crude oil fell by 7.21 million barrels last week, which was much greater than expectations. They are now sitting at 483 million barrels, the lowest level so far this year. Gasoline inventories also fell (-1.02 million barrels to 230.2mb), suggesting demand remains strong. U.S. crude oil production also fell for the first time since June, down 19k b/d to 9.41m b/d. The better than expected data was further supported by comments from OPEC that it would increase adherence to the production cut agreement. On the FX front the USD broadly lost ground as the market interpreted the FOMC decision and statement as dovish leaning. The Dollar Index fell -0.4% to 93.67 with EURUSD gaining an impressive +0.8% to 1.1730. USDJPY fell -0.6% to 111.20 and AUDUSD, which slipped in Asia yesterday after the softer than expected headline Q2 CPI report (+0.2% vs +0.4% expected), managed to regain all the losses and closed +0.9% higher for the day at just above 0.80 - the highest level since May 2015. U.S. treasuries rallied into the close after the FOMC policy meeting concluded, with the 2y note falling -3.47bps to 1.3551% and the 10y yield whacked -4.82bps to 2.2872%.

The US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged as expected yesterday, but it softened its language on inflation and hinted that it would begin balance sheet reduction in September (changing the wording around timing from “this year” to “relatively soon”). The former is a dovish development, but the latter is less clear cut. On the one hand, balance sheet reduction will tighten US financial conditions, but to the extent that balance sheet reduction and low inflation delay rate hikes, it does mean that policy rates in the US will be low for longer. Against a backdrop of softening inflation, the market also appears to be reading it as a bit aggressive (ie. will be a drag on US growth), with the USD sold heavily and bonds rallying on the news. It certainly seems that the Fed is keen to press on and unwind QE regardless. As expected, Fed officials voted unanimously to leave their benchmark rate in a range between 1.00% - 1.25%.

In other economic news, new home sales in the U.S. gained +0.8% (+0.8% expected) to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 610k units last month (615 units expected). The sales pace for March, April and May was revised lower. New single-family homes sales in the West soared +12.5% to their highest level since July 2007. They jumped +10.0% in the Midwest, but fell -6.1% in the South. Sales were unchanged in the Northeast. At the current sales pace, there was a 5.4-month supply of new homes on the market at the end of June. There were 272k new homes available for sale, the highest level in 8 years.

PRECIOUS: Gold remained fairly soft into the FOMC decision yesterday, with weak longs happy to square up ahead of the announcement and suppress the price to sub $1250 levels throughout. Once the decision dropped however, the language in the statement, particularly the change from 'this year' to 'relatively soon', was perceived by the market as decidedly dovish. USD and bond yields fell rather dramatically in the final few hours of trade, which benefitted the metals complex. In Asia the yellow metal teetered around the $1250 mark ultimately falling through this level as Japanese traders came on line. There was some sizeable bids on Ecomex around $1249.50 (spot equivalent) of 100+ lots which kept the market buoyant for the first few hours, but Japanese sellers quickly pushed through the support and the gold fell sharply towards $1247. Au managed a modest recovery back towards $1248-49 by the time China walked in, but they too were net sellers which saw the market gently angle lower into the afternoon. The $1243.80 low was hit during early London trade, with some light support beginning to emerge under $1245. Just ahead of the FOMC announcement, the yellow metal was trading just beneath $1250 when the USD dived sharply. Gold surged to $1255 in the aftermath, did a little work there, then took off through the previous highs at $1258.50-9.00, with stops being tripped to a top of $1263.30. $1260 was then held into the close, which is certainly a positive on the daily charts and could potentially mark a breakout. Silver performed well also, losing ground in line with gold throughout the Asia/London sessions and bouncing back through $16.50 following the FOMC. Gold's very impulsive rise throughout July now sits it above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (Jun-Jul decline) at $1262, however it does appear technically there will be some resistance between $1265-75.

The metals held onto their overnight gains during the Asian session today, although there was a definite pause in the action post FOMC. Interestingly there was some light follow through Chinese buying on the day despite the higher prices, as well as some TOCOM bids which kept spot gold steady. The SGE premium subsided with higher prices, onshore gold trading at around $6-8 premium when compared to the loco London price. In other markets equities where in the black, the Nikkei up is +0.15%, Shanghai composite +0.05%, Hang Seng +0.6% and ASX200 +0.15% at time of writing. Crude is flat on the day as is the USD with the exception of AUDUSD, which continues to push higher currently sitting at 0.8043. Elsewhere, India eased the restrictions for its Sovereign Gold Bond Scheme after failing to secure the targeted investment last year. The annual investment limit under the Scheme has been raised to 4 kilograms for individuals and 20 kgs for trusts - the previous limit was 500 grams. The cabinet has also empowered the finance ministry to launch variants of Sovereign Gold Bonds with different interest rates, risk protection and pay-offs, to compete with alternative investments and deal with volatility in global gold prices. On the data calendar today look out for U.S. jobless claims, durable goods orders, wholesale inventories and Chicago Fed Activity index, as well as German retail sales.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Friday 21 July 2017

MACRO: Initial Jobless Claims in the U.S. eased during the week ended July 15, dipping to 233k (exp: 245k) from 248k previously. The print saw the four-week moving average decline by 2,250 to 243,750, while continuing claims increased 28k to 1.977 million (exp: 1.949 million) during the week ended July 8. The Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook declined to the lowest level since November during July, seeing the index slide to 19.5 (exp: 23.0) from 27.6 previously. The index for employment eased 5 points, however remained positive at 10.8, while the index for business activity jumped to 36.9 from 31.3 previously. The U.S. Leading Index increased to +0.6% in June (exp: +0.4%) from a downwardly revised +0.2% during May (prev: +0.3%). Equities in the U.S. ended mixed in quiet trade on Thursday, with Home Depot (-4.09%) weighing upon the DJIA to the tune of 46 points to have the bourse lower at the close. The DJIA ended the session -0.13% lower at 21,611.78 points to follow a fresh record close the session prior, while declines to materials (-0.83%) and industrials (-0.61%) offset gains to telecoms (+1.41%) too see the S&P 500 inch just -0.02% lower to 2,473.45 points. Meanwhile the Nasdaq Composite outperformed to books its tenth consecutive session gain, closing +0.08% higher at a fresh record close of 6,390.002 points. Oil futures pulled back on Thursday from the six-week high printed the session prior, with investor's turning focus to the upcoming OPEC meeting in Russia on Monday. WTI fell -0.7% to around USD $46.79 per barrel, while Brent crude declined -0.8% to close below USD $50 per barrel. The greenback traded under pressure on Thursday, collapsing over -1% intrasession as the euro ripped to a two-year high following the ECB unchanged rates announcement, even as ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to continue the central bank's asset purchase program. Draghi discussed the economic recovery of the region, however noted that it has yet to translate into higher consumer prices, "Basically inflation is not where we want it to be and where it should be" he said. The bank held back from discussions over the timing of reigning in quantitative easing, surprising some market participants who had expected some indication as to the path toward the normalisation of monetary policy. Markets across Europe ended Thursday's session lower, weighed down by a stronger euro and a dovish Mario Draghi. The Stoxx Europe 600 ended the session -0.38% down after trading as much as +0.5% higher intrasession, while the German Dax eased just -0.04% as exporters suffered. In the U.K. the FTSE 100 climbed +0.77% to book the highest close in four-weeks, supported by strong corporate results and a softer sterling.

PRECIOUS: A mix of geopolitical risks and a leg lower to the USD supported bullion on Thursday, turning bid in New York to book the highest close since late June. The metal survived early European weakness that tested support toward USD $1,235, before receiving a boost on the ECB related headlines that sent the euro soaring as high as 1.1658 from a session low of 1.1480. The metal saw a short squeeze through USD $1,245 in New York to touch a USD $1,248 high, before running into offers toward the 100 and 50 day moving averages around USD $1,248 and USD $1,249.30 respectively. Afternoon pricing saw gold ease back from the session high print as the greenback clawed back ground, closing around USD $1,244 to book a +0.5% session gain. Asia traded with a modest bid bias on Friday, seeing firm interest around New York closing levels in early flows, before turning higher in afternoon pricing as the euro strengthened. China continued to support bullion, however with the on-shore premium easing marginally to around USD $8 it was left to regional physical and spec interest to provide buoyancy, with volumes through Comex notably elevated. The dollar weakness should continue to support gold around current levels and we look to a break through the 100 and 50 day moving averages as a pivot point for further gains. Support for the metal is evident toward USD $1,243, while below this USD $1,235 should restrict declines. Silver was able to take out Wednesday's high print during New York trade on Thursday, recovering from an early break through the USD $16.20 support level to print a USD $16.41 high. The grey metal is encountering some resistance toward USD $16.40, once again testing the figure during Asian trade on Friday, however unable to break through. The current large short positioning is likely weighing upon the metal, however a sustained move through USD $16.40 to target USD $16.69 may drive some liquidation to support further gains. Data releases today include Canadian CPI and Retail Sales.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Monday 17 July 2017

MACRO: Consumer prices in the U.S. held unchanged MoM during June (exp: +0.1%), largely a reflection of softer gasoline prices. On an annualised basis inflation eased to +1.6% (exp: +1.7%) from +1.9% previously, down from a five-year high of +2.7% just five months ago (February). After excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core CPI increased +0.1% MoM (exp: +0.2%) from +0.1%, seeing the annualised print hold at +1.7% (exp: +1.7%). Retail Sales in the U.S. declined -0.2% MoM during June (exp: +0.1%) to follow an upwardly revised -0.1% (prev: -0.3%) the month prior. June marked the second consecutive monthly decline and matched the largest decline this year. Excluding autos retail sales declined -0.2% MoM (exp: +0.2%), while excluding autos and gas sales dropped -0.1% MoM (exp: +0.4%). Industrial Production in the U.S. outpaced expectations during June, jumping +0.4% (exp: +0.3%) to follow an upwardly revised +0.1% gain during May. June's positive print was the fifth consecutive monthly gain and was supported by a +0.2% increase to manufacturing. The University of Michigan reported its preliminary U.S. Consumer Confidence read for July eased to 93.1 (exp: 95.0) to follow June's 95.1. Current conditions increased to 113.2 from 112.5 in June, while expectations weighed upon the headline figure, sliding to 80.2 from 83.9 previously. Equity markets in the U.S. surged higher on Friday following the soft inflation data and mixed corporate earnings. The DJIA added +0.39% to 21,637.74 points, in the process marking the third consecutive record close and the 25th record close for 2017. Strong performances to real estate (+1.06%) and information technology (+0.89%) helped propel the S&P 500 +0.47% higher to a record close of 2,459.27 points, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped +0.61% to book its sixth consecutive session gain, however falling just shy of its record closing level. Oil futures turned higher on Friday following reports of supply issues out of Nigeria and an increase in forecasted crude demand by the International Energy Agency. WTI added +1% to settle around USD $46.50 per barrel and end the week over +5% higher, while Brent crude gained +1% to take the weekly return to +4.7%. In currency majors the greenback lost ground on Friday following the U.S. inflation report, seeing the DXY dollar index fall -0.6%. European markets ended trade on Friday mixed, weighed down by financial stocks following softer than expected earnings results out of the U.S. The German Dax ended -0.08% lower while gains to commodity related companies helped offset a -0.7% fall to the Stoxx Europe 600 bank index to see the bourse end +0.18% higher. In the U.K. the FTSE 100 saw strength to the pound weigh upon equities, seeing the bourse hand back -0.47%.

PRECIOUS: Gold turned higher on Friday on the back of the soft U.S. inflation data, surging through the 200 DMA around USD $1,230 to end the session around +1% higher. The yellow metal had difficulty getting through USD $1,220 throughout Asian and European trade, with offers on Comex restricting gains leading into the U.S. data releases. A leg lower to the USD following the U.S. CPI release provided the impetus for a break above the recent range, taking gold as high as USD $1,233.45, before easing back below USD $1,230 into the close. The latest COTR showed further decreases to gold positioning, falling by 3.5 million ounces or just over -33%, as longs declined by -3.3% and shorts added over +16%. Gold traded with a mild bid bias during Asian hours on Monday, importantly breaking back above the 200 DMA in early session flows and notably seeing solid regional physical interest. Early Chinese interest saw gold to the session high of USD $1,232.20, while the remainder of the session saw the metal locked within a narrow range. The short-term key for the metal will be holding around the 200 DMA, with targets extending to USD $1,235 - $1,240 and USD $1,250 beyond this. After breaking above USD $16 on Friday in New York, silver spent Asian trade on Monday consolidating above the figure. Early Chinese interest saw the session high of USD $16.08 printed, however the metal lacked follow through buying and was unable to push above Friday's New York high print. Much like gold, silver needs to hold the near-term support of USD $16 for a further leg higher, with top-side targets extending as far as USD $16.50. Data releases tonight include Eurozone CPI and U.S. Empire Manufacturing.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

 

 

DAILY REPORT : Wed 26 July 2017

MACRO: The U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) reported their house price index increased +0.4% MoM during May (exp: +0.5%), taking annualised growth to +6.9%. Meanwhile the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national house price index increased +0.1% MoM during May (exp: +0.3%) to see the YoY growth at +5.69% (exp: +5.80%). Consumer Confidence in the U.S. surged higher during July according to the latest report from the conference board. The consumer confidence index jumped to 121.1 (exp: 116.5) from 117.3 previously, marking the highest reading since 2000. The headline print was supported by an increase to the present situation index to 147.8 from 143.9 previously, while the expectations index pushed higher to 103.3 from 99.6 previously. Equities in the U.S. pushed higher on Tuesday, however the broader market saw gains tempered somewhat by a -5.05% fall to 3M Co. following softer than expected earnings results. Positive results to McDonald's Corp. (+4.75%) and Caterpillar Inc. (+5.88) helped to off-set the 3M related declines and see the DJIA +0.47% higher at 21,613.43 points. The S&P 500 saw gains to financials (+1.27%), energy (+1.26%) and materials (+1.16%) support the bourse +0.29% higher to 2,477.13 points, while the Nasdaq Composite managed to eke out a +0.02% gain to post a fresh record closing high, however saw declines to Google-parent Alphabet (-3%) restrict further gains. Oil futures rallied on Tuesday ahead of the EIA supply report on Wednesday, with the American Petroleum Institute estimating a fall of 10.2 million barrels. WTI added around +1% to settle above USD $48 per barrel, while Brent crude traded through USD $50 per barrel on the way to a +0.8% gain. Treasury yields pushed higher on Tuesday following the positive consumer confidence read, taking 10-year close to 8bps higher at 2.333%, while two-year yields added 3.3bps to 1.389%. Business confidence in Germany unexpectedly increased during July according to IFO survey results released on Tuesday. The business climate index jumped to 116.0 (exp: 114.9) from 115.2 previously, while both the expectations and current assessment indices reported solid gains. The positive survey results helped to see the German Dax +0.45% higher, while a softer euro underpinned a +0.41% return for the Stoxx Europe 600. Equities in the U.K. ended trade on Tuesday firmly higher (U.K. FTSE 100 +0.77%), supported by strong gains to oil companies and miners on the back of stronger Chinese demand.

PRECIOUS: Dollar strength and position squaring leading into Wednesday's FOMC meeting saw gold under pressure on Tuesday, notably offered during early European trade to test the USD $1,250 support. Early Asian session weakness was well absorbed across Comex, seeing the yellow metal reverse the downward trend and test toward Monday's USD $1,258 high in afternoon flows as USD/JPY slipped below 111.00. The bid tone was however soon extinguished as European participants filtered in, seeing the metal retrace the Asian session gains and test a break of USD $1,250 leading into New York hours. Higher treasury yields and a push toward 112.00 for USD/JPY kept bullion under pressure in New York, while it is worth noting that there is decent open interest at the USD $1,250 Comex strike, which more than likely restricted the yellow metals recovery. ETF holdings further weighed upon bullion on Tuesday, with 241k ounces of outflows recorded. Asian pricing on Wednesday saw gold extend Tuesday's weakness, losing touch with the USD $1,250 handle in early pricing to slip underneath both the 50 and 100 day moving averages. Chinese interest was modest in early Shanghai trade, however while the on-shore premium continues to sit around USD $6 over loco London gold, bullion struggled to find the drivers for an afternoon recovery and sits languishing underneath the aforementioned moving averages as Europe begins their day. The technical break during Asian trade today saw some participants heading for the exits as we near the FOMC rates announcement and it is difficult to see gold making any headway above USD $1,250 leading into the Fed. A hawkish tone from Yellen today will open up a test toward the 200 DMA around USD $1,229, while a dovish skew is likely to see a recovery test USD $1,258 - $1,262. Silver saw whippy price action on Tuesday, collapsing to a dollar driven USD $16.24 low in European trade before a likely short covering rally and bid base metals (notably copper) saw a sharp reversal through the recent high of USD $16.60. The grey metal eased into the close, however was able to consolidate gains to end modestly higher on the session. There was further turbulence for silver during Asian trade today, with the metals inability to hold USD $16.50 seeing a break toward USD $16.30, where we saw supportive interest on Tuesday. Silver looks to have the greatest upside should the Fed turn dovish today, with the record high short positioning expected to come under pressure if the metal can break through USD $16.69. All eyes tonight on the FOMC rates decision and accompanying release, while leading into this we see U.K. GDP and U.S. New Home Sales.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 20 July 2017

MACRO: Fresh records for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq as US equities finish higher amid a slew of positive earnings reports and stronger than expected housing data. The Dow added 66.02 points, or 0.31%, to 21,640.75, the S&P 500 rose 13.22 points, or 0.54%, to 2,473.83, and the Nasdaq advanced 40.74 points, or 0.64%, to 6,385.04. The energy (+1.40%) and materials (+1.09%) sectors led a broad advance. European shares were higher also, The EuroSTOXX put on 2.96 points, or 0.8%, to 385.54, the German DAX rose 21.66, or 0.17%, to 12,432.50, the London FTSE 100 gained 40.69, or 0.55%, to 7,358.0. In the currency markets, the US dollar has seen a modest rebound off 10 month lows on Wednesday's more robust economic data, the US dollar index rising 0.23% to 94.82. The EUR traded down to 1.1512 ahead of Thursday's ECB meeting but still remains very close to the 2017 high, while USD/JPY traded up to 112.14. US treasury yields were higher as the strength in equities sparked a sell-off in bonds, the 2-year note yield increased 0.83 bps to 1.356%, the 10-year bond yield ticked up 1.06 bps to 2.2678%. In commodities news, oil markets were higher on reports that Saudi Arabia may cut crude exports by a further 1 million barrels per day, Brent firmed 1.74% to $49.69 while WTI added 1.51% to $47.13. Base metals were broadly lower, with zinc (-1.68%) leading the losses. In US economic data, residential housing starts rose 8.3% to an annualised rate of 1.22M in June from 1.122M in May. The annual rate well exceeds economist's expectation of 1.163M and the increase arrests a 3 month slide in new home starts. Building permits, an indicator of future construction, rose 7.4% to an annualised rate of 1.25M. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei sits at +0.58%, the Shanghai composite is at +0.17%, the Hang Seng at +0.30%, and the ASX S&P 200 at +0.53%. On the economic calendar tonight we have the Philly Fed Index, weekly jobless claims, and leading economic indicators out of the US; with consumer confidence, and the all important ECB interest rate decision coming out of the Eurozone.

PRECIOUS: Range-bound session as strength in US equities weighs on the precious. Gold came under pressure during Asian hours as a trimming of the SGE premium to $8-9 prompted good onshore selling and move below $1240. The London AM session saw the day's low of $1236 followed by a rebound to the high of $1243 as USD/JPY started to slide. The market was unable to overcome the resting orders around Tuesdays high. The yellow metal tested the $1240 level again during NY trading but found enough support to hang on close at that figure. Silver's trading mirrored gold through the session, sold in Asia before a rebound off the low during London AM and close all but flat in NY. We did, however, see the grey metal push through yesterday's two week high to reach $16.32. Palladium spiked to very close to the month high at $870 before a dramatic sell off during NY hours saw the metal finish in negative territory at $856. Platinum closed $6 lower at $918 following a range-bound session. the Philadelphia gold and silver index added 0.26%. The SPDR gold trust holdings fell 0.65% to 816.12 metric tonnes. In today's trading, the greenback continues to climb off that 10 month low with USD/JPY trading back above 112. The firming dollar is putting pressure on gold, after a brief squeeze to today's high of 1242.10 the yellow metal drifted close to yesterday's lows at $1237.50. The SGE premium remains the same as yesterday at $8-9 above loco London and we are seeing a similar level of selling out of China. The metal sits at $1239.20 as I write. Silver market movements are again in sync with gold today and remaining influenced by the dollar's movement against the yen. We saw the high of $16.30 before a consolidation around yesterday's lows. The grey metal is at $16.20 as I write. PGM's have been range-bound today, platinum and palladium currently at $916 and $853 respectively.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Friday 14 July 2017

MACRO: US equities were higher as the Dow posted fresh record highs. The Dow added 20.95 points, or 0.10%, to 21,553.09, the S&P 500 rose 4.58 points, or 0.19%, to 2,447.83, and Nasdaq advanced 13.27 points, or 0.21%, to 6,274.44. There were wins for financials (+0.61%) and energy (+0.44%) while telcos (-0.57%) and utilities (-0.35%) led the losses. European shares were mostly higher, The EuroSTOXX put on 1.24 points, or 0.3%, to 386.14, the German DAX rose 14.75, or 0.12%, to 12,623.00, the London FTSE 100 slipped 3.49, or 0.05%, to 7,351.00. Some volatility in the currency markets, the US dollar index rode the ups and downs during the day to finish flat at 95.765 the EUR traded down to 1.1376 (from the intra-day high of 1.1452), while USD/JPY traded up to 113.45 after dipping below 113 a few times during the session. US treasury yields were lower as markets continue to digest the dovish testimony from Yellen, the 2-year note yield lost 1.63 bps to 1.3592%, the 10-year bond yield declined 2.49 bps to 2.3426%. In commodities news, oil markets were higher as WTI rose for a fourth straight session, adding 1.23% to $46.05. Brent gained 1.36% to $48.39. Base metals were mixed with aluminium (+1.8%) the best performer and zinc (-1.04%) leading the laggards. In US economic news, Initial jobless claims fell by 3k to a seasonally adjusted 247k in the week ending July 8, this marks the 123rd straight week that claims remained below 300k which is the level that indicates a healthy labour market. Continuing jobless claims increased to 1.95M The producer price index rose by 1% in June, while the year on year increase has slowed from 2.4% to 2%. The data suggests inflation has tapered somewhat after rising steadily through 2016 and early 2017, and is particularly interesting in the light of Yellen's commentary on Wednesday and today. Investors will have a keen eye on tonight's CPI release. In Asia today, as I write the Nikkei sits at +0.09%, the Shanghai composite is at -0.14%, the Hang Seng at -0.01%, and the ASX S&P 200 closed at +0.49%. On the economic calendar tonight we have CPI, retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilisation, consumer sentiment, and business inventories out of the US.

PRECIOUS: A disappointing session for the precious complex as gold gives back the early gains to close lower. The market was led by USD/JPY through the session, gold was fairly well bid through Asian hours as dollar/yen was sold below 113, but couldn't push through the previous session high of $1225. The SGE premium traded around $11 over loco London which prompted a pick up in buying out of China. The greenback rallied during the London AM session sparking a sell off in the yellow metal, by the time NY came in the market was at $1220 and trading at the low of $1216 not long after. Fairly quiet trade through the remainder of the session saw gold remain within a tight $2 range and close around the low. Silver was looking to test $16 during Asian hours but succumbed to the sell off during the NY session, the grey metal gave up nearly 2% from the high to finish at $15.66. PGM's looked well supported early, particularly palladium which surged to a high of $871, but finished in the red. The Philadelphia gold and silver index lost 1.36%. The SPDR Gold Trust ETF sold 114kozs overnight. In todays trading USD/JPY is dictating terms once again, gold softened early as the dollar firmed, but found enough buy orders ahead of $1215 to support the market. The SGE premium has backed off slightly to $9-10. The XAU has ticked up in the afternoon as the USD is sold against the yen, reaching a high of $1218.90. The yellow metal is at $1217.80 as I write. Silver was well offered early and despite the late rally still finds itself in arrears for the day. The grey metal is sitting at $15.63 as I write. Not much price action either way for the PGMs, palladium is edging higher and platinum remains flat.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Tuesday 25 July 2017

MACRO: Saudi Arabia has announced that it will go beyond production cuts and begin limiting exports in an attempt to reduce the global oil glut. Saudi Arabian energy minister Khalid al-Falih announced on Monday that the oil rich nation will curb exports to 6.6 million barrels per day in August, a reduction of 600,000 barrels per day from the 7.2 million averaged during January through May this year. Following the OPEC meeting on Monday it was announced that Nigeria and Libya, both of whom were exempt from last year's production cuts will have production limits put in place. Nigeria has agreed to limit daily production to 1.8 million barrels per day, underneath their current production level of 1.6 million barrels per day, while Libya will be capped at 1.25 million barrels per day, however still well above June's 820,000 barrels per day production. IHS Markit reported improved conditions across the U.S. manufacturing sector during July, taking the manufacturing PMI index (provisional) to 53.2 (exp: 53.2) from 52.0 previously. Improving demand saw increases to output, new orders and employment support the headline figure higher, while the services PMI index (provisional) held unchanged at 54.2. Equities in the U.S. once again ended mixed on Tuesday, with the broader market turning lower as investors traded with caution into both a busy week of earnings and the upcoming FOMC policy meeting. The DJIA pulled back -0.31% to end the session at 21,513.17 points, weighed down by further weakness to General Electric (-1.85%). Gains to financials (+0.31%) and technology (+0.25%) were unable to overturn weakness across telecoms (-1.02%) and utilities (-0.96%) as the S&P 500 ended trade -0.11% lower, while continued interest in tech stocks saw the Nasdaq (+0.36%) outperform to book its 41st record close of 2017. Markets in Europe traded under pressure on Monday, sliding lower following data from Markit showing the Eurozone manufacturing sector softened during July. The Stoxx Europe 600 ended the session down -0.2% to see its lowest close in two-weeks, while the German Dax saw weakness across autos to end -0.3% off the pace. Equities in the U.K. were dragged lower by airline stocks on Monday, falling around -1% to 7,377.73 points.


PRECIOUS: The precious complex kicked off the week with mixed price action, seeing gold print a near four-week high before easing late in trade to book the first decline in seven sessions. Early Asian interest saw bullion break above Friday's New York high on a modest stop loss run, however the bid tone soon tempered leading into the Shanghai open, seeing gold ease below USD $1,255 in search of support above USD $1,250 as the USD caught a bid into European hours. After seeing solid interest toward the USD $1,250 support the yellow metal turned higher during early European trade, once again breaking above USD $1,255 to print a fresh session high of USD $1,258. Interest around the New York open saw gold spike through USD $1,258 to a session high of USD $1,259.35, however offers around the USD $1,260 resistance put an end to any further gains as the metal consolidated around the USD $1,255 pivot point into the close. Asian trade on Tuesday mirrored Monday's price action, with gold forced to test support toward USD $1,250 in early flows, before the metal reversed course as USD/JPY fell below 111.00. Bullion generally tracked USD flows throughout the session, however struggled to find support for a test of Monday's high print in afternoon trade, with participants likely restricting positioning leading into the U.S. rates decision this week. Gold continues to consolidate above USD $1,250, with support sitting underneath at the 50 and 100 day moving averages broadly between USD $1,248 - $1,249.50. A break through USD $1,260 will see targets on the top-side for gold extend to USD $1,275 - $1,280, while moves beyond this will look to the April and June high prints around USD $1,296 - $1,298. After testing support toward USD $16.40 late in Asian trade on Monday, the grey metal followed gold sharply higher into New York hours to print a fresh near three-week high of USD $16.58. Late session weakness saw the metal dragged below USD $16.50, while Asian trade on Tuesday saw interest around the figure keep the price action in a relatively tight range, generally influenced by USD flows. Broad support extends below USD $16.40 (USD $16.35 - $16.40), while a sustained move through USD $16.50 to target USD $16.69 should drive short liquidation to support further gains. Data releases today includes German IFO survey results, U.S. FHFA House Prices, the Conference Board U.S. Consumer Confidence and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Wed 19 July 2017

MARKETS/MACRO: U.S. stock indices traded mixed on Tuesday, as investors focused on weak trading results from a roster of banks (Goldman Sachs / BofA). But the tech-heavy Nasdaq looked set to close at its first record in about a month on the back of its longest winning streak in nearly 2 years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average cooled -54.99 points, or -0.25%, to 21,574.73, the S&P500 inched up +1.47 points, or +0.06%, to 2,460.61 and the Nasdaq rallied +29.874 points, or +0.47%, to 6,344.305. The best performing sectors were tech (+0.5%) and consumer discretionary (+0.4%), while telco's (-0.98%) and energy (-0.49%) floundered. European benchmarks finished the session under pressure as the Euro raced up to a 14 month high against the U.S. dollar (1.1583) and as disappointing corporate earnings reports rolled in (Ericsson / Zalando / Experion). The FTSE Euro First 300 index slid -16.88 points, or -1.11% to 1,502.96 and the Euro Stoxx 600 similarly retreated -4.28 points, or -1.11% to 382.58. Regionally the DAX gave up -1.25%, CAC40 -1.09% and FTSE100 -0.19%. Crude oil prices surged higher on reports that Saudi Arabia is considering more export cuts. It then pared back some of the gains late in the session as investors questioned whether it was just another attempt at jaw-boning the market higher. A report from consultant Petroleum Policy Intelligence said that Saudi Arabia was considering a further 1 million b/d cut to counter the rise in Libyan and Nigerian production. This was followed by comments from Ecuador Oil Minister Carlos Perez who said he had spoken to Saudi Arabia about both remaining committed to reducing inventories to normalised levels. In the end August WTI crude rebounded +$0.41, or +0.89% to US$46.43 a barrel. Bonds rallied and the curve continued to flatten in the U.S. due to the slowdown in global inflation, the 2y note fell -0.8bps to 1.3477% and the 10y bond yield sank -5.33bps to 2.2607%. USD remained under pressure as investors continue to lose confidence in Trump’s economic stimulus after the failure to replace Obamacare. The breach of 1.15 in EUR/USD yesterday precipitated a flurry of buying and we closed around 1.1555 having printed 1.1583 highs. Volumes also materially picked up in AUD/USD which held on to gains above 0.7900 on persistent interest to the topside. The hawkish RBA minutes yesterday were the catalyst and it appears the market may have been underestimating the probability for a hike this year.

Markets were given a jolt yesterday by the RBA minutes from the July board meeting which were more upbeat than the Statement that immediately followed the meeting. The assessment in early July that the March quarter slowdown was only “partly reflecting temporary factors” was changed to one that is “largely reflecting temporary factors”. The minutes also noted that “the data available for the June quarter had generally been positive”. The Bank judged that “the most recent Australian and state government budgets suggested that fiscal policy would be more expansionary in 2017-18 than had been previously expected”. What’s more, the unexpected discussion about the neutral cash rate and the focus on the RBA’s estimate of 3.5% stirred the market to interpreting the current policy settings as highly stimulatory. The AUD front-end reacted quite aggressively, with the Jun-2018 bank bill futures selling-off some 10bp from the release. The AUD jumped more than one 100 pips over the session to an intra day high just above 0.7920.

PRECIOUS: Gold continued to follow the recent traction, grinding its way higher for a seventh consecutive session as investors express continued concern on U.S. economic strength and the ongoing political gridlock. U.S. reforms look increasingly uncertain with two more Republican senators announcing overnight their opposition to Trump's healthcare reform bill. Gold ticked lower in the lead up to the Tocom open and just after it but did find it's feet again 15 minutes before the SGE open. It was around this time also that EURUSD and AUDUSD started to accelerate, the former rushing through the key 1.15 barrier and the latter punching through the 2016 highs (0.7829) and running strongly through 0.7900, following the hawkish RBA minutes. Gold rallied in line with these moves, running through $1235 and plateauing at $1237.50 throughout the Asia afternoon. The SGE remained fairly dormant, with moderate to light flows seen across the week and the premium seemingly fixed either side of $10 above spot. A few dollars were handed back throughout the London session but by the time NY opened the USD was again whacked which led gold to a fresh July high of $1244.50. The yellow metal is moving towards a fairly important resistance zone between $1246.50-$1248.50, where the 50 dma, 100 dma and 61.8% retracement of the May-Jun rally. On the downside we should see support initially at $1238-40 and then again at $1229.50 (200 dma).

Quiet start to the day in Asia, gold slowly ticking up a few dollars over the hours leading into Tocom opening. We touched a peak of $1243.40 shortly after the Tocom open with some light Japanese buying apparent. With the approaching SGE open some retail selling began to enter the market and gold edged lower. China were net sellers on the day, which took the premium sub-$10 and suppressed the spot price back towards $1241. This afternoon All in all though the market was very quiet today with little to report. In other markets equities were firmer the Shanghai Composite at time of writing +0.8%, Hang Seng +0.5%, Nikkei +0.05% and ASX200 +0.8%, the USD is narrowly mixed and WTI crude is down -$0.15 (-0.3%)at $46.25/b. On the data front today a fairly quiet one, U.S. mortgage applications, housing starts and building permits the only thing to look out for.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

DAILY REPORT : Thursday 13 July 2017

MACRO: Federal Reserve President Janet Yellen presented her semi-annual testimony to congress on Wednesday, discussing recent developments across the U.S. economy in addition to indicating, as expected, that the committee will begin balance sheet 'normalisation' later this year. Chair Yellen noted that the economy continues to add jobs and is benefitting from a pickup in household consumption as well as improved business investment, however inflation, although expected to return to 2% over the next couple of years, currently has an uncertain near-term outlook. With regards to interest rates Yellen stated that the Federal funds rate "would not have to rise all that much further", adding that should the economy continue at current pace it is expected that there will be "gradual increases in the federal-funds rate over time". Day two of Chair Yellen's testimony is scheduled for Thursday in front of the Senate Banking Committee. The Federal Reserve Beige Book released on Wednesday showed economic growth as 'slight to moderate' during the period of late May to through June, while tight labour availability was cited across some districts as creating headwinds for employment growth. Employers are reluctant to increase wages even amid the tightening labour market and as such wage growth was described as increasing at a modest to moderate pace. Equity markets in the U.S. received a boost on Wednesday from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's dovish skew, seeing the DJIA to a fresh record closing high, the first for the bourse since June 19. Solid gains to big names such as DuPont (+2.75%) and Microsoft (+1.66%) helped support the bourse +0.57% higher to 21,532.14 points, while strength across technology (+1.31%) and Real Estate (+1.30%) underpinned a +0.73% gain to the S&P 500 as all eleven sectors ended in positive territory. The Nasdaq Composite continued to benefit from the push back into technology stocks, rising +1.10% for a fourth consecutive session gain. Oil futures closed modestly higher on Wednesday after enduring whippy data driven pricing in early New York. Crude saw underlying support following data released by the EIA noting U.S. domestic crude supplies fell by 7.6 million barrels during the week ended July 7, however the positive data was tempered somewhat by reports that crude production increased by 59,000 barrels per day to 9.397 million barrels per day. WTI ended the session around +0.7% higher to settle at USD $45.49 per barrel, while Brent added USD $0.22 for a +0.5% gain at USD $47.74 per barrel. Treasury yields in the U.S. eased on Wednesday following Yellen's testimony to congress, seeing the 10-year 3.4bps lower to 2.327%. Markets in Europe turned higher on Wednesday on the back of Yellen's testimony to congress, with particular focus on the prepared remarks noting that interest rates do not have to rise much further. The Stoxx Europe 600 posted its highest close in two weeks to gain +1.52%, matched by a +1.52% increase to the German Dax, while the French CAC shaded the two to close +1.59% higher. In the U.K. the FTSE 100 jumped +1.19% to notch the largest single-session percentage gain since April 24 as major oil players showed strength.

PRECIOUS: Gold ended higher on Wednesday following a generally orderly ascent that was punctuated by a brief period of volatility following the release of Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's prepared remarks. The dovish skew to Yellen's comments and indications that the federal reserve aren't in any rush to increase the funds rate underpinned the metal's bid tone throughout the U.S. session, printing a USD $1,225.75 high before easing modestly into the close. Asian trade on Thursday saw a general bid tone across the precious complex, with gold well supported around USD $1,220 in early flows, before Chinese demand and a leg lower to the greenback saw gold steadily higher throughout afternoon pricing. The consolidation around USD $1,220 should be viewed as positive for near-term pricing, with the relatively light long positioning instilling confidence in the market that the metal is open to further top-side moves. Geopolitical concerns out of the Korean peninsula are likely to supportive for the broader precious complex, while the very fluid Trump-Russia collusion story continues to create uncertainty across markets. Silver once again tested a break back above USD $16 on Wednesday and has outperformed the remainder of the precious complex in recent sessions following the USD $15.20 low printed on Monday (now close to +5% higher). After easing back through the figure late in New York trade on Wednesday, the grey metal made several attempts to trade above USD $16 in Asia on Thursday, however consistent offers on Comex restricted any further moves higher. Silver will look for a consolidated move through USD $16.00 for a further leg higher, with targets extending to USD $16.50 over the near-term. Platinum consolidated Wednesday's short squeeze higher during Asian trade today, moving further away from the pivot point of USD $900, while palladium held a relatively narrow range and will look to USD $850 for support. Today we see Fed Chair Yellen's testimony in front of the Senate Banking Committee, while on the data front we receive German and French CPI, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, U.S. PPI, U.S. Bloomberg Consumer Confidence and the U.S. Monthly Budget Statement.

 

Although the information in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources 1StopGold believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute 1StopGold' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.